WEBVTT - Anthony Albanese plays it safe

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristin Amiot.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, December fourth. Billionaire Richard White has told investors

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<v Speaker 1>his decision to step down from the company he founded

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<v Speaker 1>was a circuit breaker and necessary to protect Wise Tech's future.

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<v Speaker 1>It comes after details of the former chief executive's personal

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<v Speaker 1>life were made public in court proceedings brought by a

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<v Speaker 1>former lover. A man allegedly connected to the murders of

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<v Speaker 1>two women in Collingwood almost fifty years ago touchdown in

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<v Speaker 1>Melbourne on Tuesday night, Perry Karimblus was extradited from Rome,

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<v Speaker 1>where he's been held in custody since September. He's expected

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<v Speaker 1>to be formally charged in the coming days, but maintains

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<v Speaker 1>he's innocent of the nineteen seventy seven crime. Those stories

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<v Speaker 1>alive right now at The Australian dot com dot a

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<v Speaker 1>u Who is Anthony Albanesi really? In today's episode, The

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<v Speaker 1>Australian's Editor at Large unpacks the PM's brilliant strategic mind

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<v Speaker 1>and asks if he's the right person for the nation's

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<v Speaker 1>top job. There were seventy six bills on the table

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<v Speaker 1>last week. The final sitting week of the parliamentary year.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a hell of a mountain for the government

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<v Speaker 1>to climb, but incredibly, thirty two of them passed in

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<v Speaker 1>a single day. It was during this torrent of legislation

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<v Speaker 1>that Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi got a big win.

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<v Speaker 2>In a world first, Australian children under sixteen will be

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<v Speaker 2>banned from social media as Parliament passes strict new laws.

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<v Speaker 2>The move has attracted global attention. With the Albanesi government

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<v Speaker 2>rushing the.

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<v Speaker 1>Bills, Labour had every right to celebrate the social media

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<v Speaker 1>band's passage. After making major concessions on key pieces of

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<v Speaker 1>legislation at the eleventh hour.

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<v Speaker 2>A bill aimed at cracking down on misinformation and disinformation

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<v Speaker 2>on the Internet has been pulled by the federal government.

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<v Speaker 1>The government's proposal to ban or restrict gambling advertising has

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<v Speaker 1>also been delayed. Still riding the high of that bipartisan victory,

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<v Speaker 1>the PM shrewdly intervened in a dispute between Environment Minister

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<v Speaker 1>Tanya Plibasek and Tasmanian salmon farmers, who say her attempts

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<v Speaker 1>to protect an endangered fish are threatening their livelihoods. The

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<v Speaker 1>Australian's Editor at Large Paul Kelly says, these past few

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<v Speaker 1>weeks are telling. This is who Anthony Albanesi is.

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<v Speaker 3>When Parliament broke last week, Anthony Albanesi was in a

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<v Speaker 3>mood of a brilliant who'd passed a lot of legislation

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<v Speaker 3>through the Senate. Albanzi is essentially a tactical prime minister.

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<v Speaker 3>He's not a prime Minister of transformation. He's not a

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<v Speaker 3>golf Whitlam, Bob Hawk or a por Keating. He's very

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<v Speaker 3>much the transactional leader. It's all about political tactics. It's

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<v Speaker 3>all about maintaining his position at the election. Now, all

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<v Speaker 3>this is well and good, but the point I'd make

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<v Speaker 3>is we live in an age of transformation. Whether we're

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<v Speaker 3>talking now about the strategic outlook in the world from

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<v Speaker 3>Shi Jinping to Donald Trump, whether we're talking about the economy,

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<v Speaker 3>the challenge of inflation, this is an age of disruption.

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<v Speaker 3>It's an age of profound change. It's an age of transformation.

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<v Speaker 3>Just being a tactical leader is not going to be enough.

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<v Speaker 1>Labour's historic twenty twenty two federal election win was followed

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<v Speaker 1>by as good a run as any new government can

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<v Speaker 1>hope to have. Australia's frosty relationship with China started to thaw.

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<v Speaker 1>An ambitious twenty thirty emissions reductions target was legislated, the

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<v Speaker 1>long promised National Anti Corruption Commission became a reality. But

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<v Speaker 1>by the middle of this term the vibe had shifted.

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<v Speaker 1>Australia was plunged into a national housing crisis as inflation soared,

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<v Speaker 1>an immigration to tension debacle saw labor scrambling to maintain

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<v Speaker 1>voter confidence, and the Indigenous Voice to Parliament was resoundingly

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<v Speaker 1>defeated in a referendum following a confusing and ineffective Yes

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<v Speaker 1>campaign captained by the Prime Minister.

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<v Speaker 4>My fellow Australians at the outset, I want to say

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<v Speaker 4>that while tonight's result is not one that I had

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<v Speaker 4>hoped for, I absolutely respect the decision of the Australian

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<v Speaker 4>people and the democratic process that has delivered it.

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<v Speaker 3>We need a bolder leader. This is the time when

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<v Speaker 3>we need bold policies. We need policies of transformation. Now.

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<v Speaker 3>I know that's not easy, and I know that Anthony

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<v Speaker 3>Old and Easy in particular has limits on what he

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<v Speaker 3>can do. But he ran in twenty twenty two on

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<v Speaker 3>a policy of reassurance. That is, he didn't run on

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<v Speaker 3>a radical agenda. He ran on a policy designed to

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<v Speaker 3>deny Scott Morrison the capacity to run a negative campaign

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<v Speaker 3>against him. So he remains committed to that policy of reassurance.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a policy that he calls safe change. I understand this,

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<v Speaker 3>and essentially what we've got here is the conflict between

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<v Speaker 3>the politics and the times. The times demand bol policies

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<v Speaker 3>from a prime minister, but the politics are based on caution.

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<v Speaker 3>If you're a bowl prime minister, that's high risk. The

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<v Speaker 3>Australian public are very hypocritical. They say they want strong leadership,

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<v Speaker 3>but they're divided about how you define strength, and if

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<v Speaker 3>a prime minister starts delivering strong leadership, he's likely to

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<v Speaker 3>run into trouble.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Albanesi is widely expected to call an election for

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<v Speaker 1>early twenty twenty five, though a promise made this week

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<v Speaker 1>to bring parliament back in February suggests it might not

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<v Speaker 1>be in March as first thought. So that means you

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<v Speaker 1>are confirming that they will be sitting of parliament in February.

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<v Speaker 2>We fully expect to be sitting in February.

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<v Speaker 1>So does that give Anthony Albanesi enough time to become

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<v Speaker 1>the leader Australia needs right now.

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<v Speaker 3>He's not going to change. He's defined. He's defined as

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<v Speaker 3>a transactional and tactical Prime minister and he will use

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<v Speaker 3>these skills in this approach when it comes to the

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<v Speaker 3>election next year in twenty twenty five. So it's going

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<v Speaker 3>to be a tight contest between Albanesi and Dutton. But

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<v Speaker 3>the challenge Peter Dutton faces as Liberal leader, it's essentially

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<v Speaker 3>the same. Dutton has got to devise what's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be an effective policy framework for himself. He hasn't. Peter

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<v Speaker 3>Dutt has told us virtually nothing about the agenda that

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<v Speaker 3>he's going to take to the election campaign. And all

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<v Speaker 3>these people confidently telling us that Peter Dutton's got a

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<v Speaker 3>very high chance of winning the election. I don't see

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<v Speaker 3>how they can possibly make this claim, seeing we don't

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<v Speaker 3>even know yet the fundamental policies that he's going to

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<v Speaker 3>take to the election, and we know from what's happened

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<v Speaker 3>in the past that there are great dangers here. Once

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<v Speaker 3>an opposition leader has got to be defined by his policies,

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<v Speaker 3>then it's a great opportunity for his opponents. This is

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<v Speaker 3>what alban Is he is waiting for. He's going to

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<v Speaker 3>wage a savage negative campaign against Peter Dutton. He's going

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<v Speaker 3>to wage it on his character, He's going to wage

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<v Speaker 3>it on his negativity, but he's going to wage it

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<v Speaker 3>above all on his policies. When Dutton's policy has eventually

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<v Speaker 3>come out, I think this is going to be very important.

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<v Speaker 3>What will be the nature of Dutton's policies and to

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<v Speaker 3>what extent will they give Albanizi the chance to really

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<v Speaker 3>campaign against them?

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up? Does the PM keep his friends close or

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<v Speaker 1>his enemies closer? Anthony Albanesi won the twenty twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>election by the slimmest of margins, and Labor has governed

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<v Speaker 1>with just a one seat majority in the House of

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<v Speaker 1>Representatives ever since. They're staring down the barrel of a

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<v Speaker 1>federal election at a time when incumbent governments around the

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<v Speaker 1>world are being toppled by frustrated voters. It's rare for

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<v Speaker 1>second term governments to increase their majority, and that means

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<v Speaker 1>if Labor gets up at the next election, it might

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<v Speaker 1>need to form a coalition with the Greens if it

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<v Speaker 1>wants to move forward with its legislative agenda. So how

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<v Speaker 1>does the PM deal with perception or the reality that

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<v Speaker 1>he's in bed with an old foe this close to

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<v Speaker 1>an election.

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<v Speaker 3>The interesting thing about last week was most of the

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<v Speaker 3>legislation which was passed in the Senate was passed on

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<v Speaker 3>Labor Green votes, and this was a win for Albanesi.

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<v Speaker 3>There's no question about that. He didn't offer many concessions

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<v Speaker 3>to the Greens and they came on board. But it's

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<v Speaker 3>quite interesting, isn't it, Because if in fact, in the

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<v Speaker 3>next parliament there's going to be a minority Labor government,

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<v Speaker 3>a minority Albanesi government, then that will be a government

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<v Speaker 3>that functions with a large degree of Green support. So

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<v Speaker 3>in a sense, Albanesi's success in the parliament last week

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<v Speaker 3>is a forerunner of what might be the future a

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<v Speaker 3>Labor Green minority government as far as the Labor Party

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<v Speaker 3>is concerned. Dutton will campaign on this, There's no question

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<v Speaker 3>about that at all. He's basically going to say the

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<v Speaker 3>future is between a coalition government that you know and

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<v Speaker 3>an experimental Labor Green toel government. What Alberizi will argue,

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<v Speaker 3>in turn, is what happened last week proves that he

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<v Speaker 3>can dictate terms to the Greens, that he won't be

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<v Speaker 3>beholden to the Greens when he's dealing with them, he'll

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<v Speaker 3>be a strong leader, and the fact that he was

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<v Speaker 3>able to successfully dictate terms to the Greens on that

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<v Speaker 3>legislation last week will be put forward by Albanesi as

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<v Speaker 3>an example of what he can do. If Albanesi is

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<v Speaker 3>forced into minority government, he won't do what Julia Gillard did.

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<v Speaker 3>If he's to get a commission from the Governor General,

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<v Speaker 3>only one thing counts. That is, he doesn't have to

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<v Speaker 3>do a deal with the Greens. All he's got to

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<v Speaker 3>do to get a commission from the Governor General is

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<v Speaker 3>to have the confidence of the Parliament. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>in that sense Alberanzi, who lived through the Gillard experience,

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<v Speaker 3>will know that he's in a strong position when it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to that question of confidence, provided he's got more

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<v Speaker 3>seats in the Parliament than Dutton.

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<v Speaker 1>Just lastly, Paul, the Greens did unexpectedly well at their

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two election thanks to some savvy maneuvers on

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign trail. What are their prospects coming into twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five do you think and what does that mean

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<v Speaker 1>for Anthony Albeneasy.

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<v Speaker 3>This I think is a difficult question because the Greens

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<v Speaker 3>have made a number of mistakes, but they've also exploited

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<v Speaker 3>a number of opportunities. If we look at housing for example,

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<v Speaker 3>certainly the Greens have been running on housing for the

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<v Speaker 3>last few years in order to build up their support

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<v Speaker 3>among renters, among young people, and so if one just

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<v Speaker 3>looks at that, you might suspect that the Greens are

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<v Speaker 3>in a good position to increase their vote. But if

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<v Speaker 3>you look in a broader sense, the Greens have become

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<v Speaker 3>a far more radical party, and particularly when it comes

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<v Speaker 3>to the conflict in the Middle East, so that may

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<v Speaker 3>well be undermining them in the electorate. And the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that last week they came on board to support a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of the legislation they'd previously been opposing suggests that

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<v Speaker 3>the Greens themselves are concerned about their standing in the electorate.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's hard to tell at this stage how they'll perform.

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<v Speaker 3>There are opportunities and negatives for them in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>their performance in recent times.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Kelly is The Australian's editor at large. You can

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<v Speaker 1>read his column right now at the Australian dot com

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<v Speaker 1>dot au