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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use

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Speaker 1: today the Corporate Regulator and the AFP raid Wise Tech

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Speaker 1: Globals headquarters investigating claims of insider trading. Domino's share price

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Speaker 1: surges on the back of speculation that private equity giant

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Speaker 1: Bain is stalking the struggling Pizza Group. And at CPI

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Speaker 1: Day in Australia, when we'll get a pretty good idea

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Speaker 1: about whether or not the Reserve Bank will cut interest

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Speaker 1: rates next week. Plus insurance broker aub receives a four

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Speaker 1: billion dollar bid and Bill Gates changes his thinking on

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Speaker 1: climate change. It is Wednesday, the twenty ninth of October

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning Michael, what a crazy twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: That's putting it mildly shown The main story this morning.

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Speaker 1: The Australian Federal Police and ASSEK raided Wise Tech Globals

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Speaker 1: offices in Sydney this week looking for documents related to

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Speaker 1: alleged trading by billionaire founder Richard White and three other employees.

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Speaker 2: WIS Tech told the AX in a statement that the

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Speaker 2: Australian Securities and Investments Commission. An AFP came into its

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Speaker 2: offices on Monday executed a search warrant requiring the production

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Speaker 2: of documents regarding alleged insider trading in weis Tech chairs

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Speaker 2: by White and three employees late last year and early

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Speaker 2: this year. It went on to say that as far

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Speaker 2: as wis Tech is aware, no charges have been laid

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Speaker 2: against any person and there are no allegations against the company.

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Speaker 2: Ysex share price tumbled on opening before closing down around

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent. It's down about forty percent since July. Assek

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Speaker 2: began investigating wis Tech in March, following media reports alleging

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Speaker 2: White soul shares during a blackout period between December thirty

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Speaker 2: one and February twenty six. Now on February twenty six,

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Speaker 2: wis Tech released its financial results. Almost all companies have

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Speaker 2: blackout periods, basically where key personal personnel are prohibited from

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Speaker 2: buying or selling company shares. It happens before earning's releases.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: White sold about one point eight seven million shares between

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Speaker 2: December twenty four and February nineteen. The average price over

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Speaker 2: that period was a dollar twenty two. Put all that

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Speaker 2: together about two hundred and thirty million dollars worth of

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Speaker 2: shares sold during that blackout period.

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Speaker 1: There a lot of dates in all of that Sean,

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Speaker 1: but that was at the period when he wasn't CEO.

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Speaker 2: Yes, technically now. Previously, White has said he obtained legal

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Speaker 2: advice before he made the trades the shares were sold,

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Speaker 2: not when he was on the Wisteak board nor an executive. Therefore,

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Speaker 2: that blackout period didn't apply to him. White left the

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Speaker 2: CEO role and the board in October last year after

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Speaker 2: a nine media investigation revealed a two million dollar settlement

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Speaker 2: with a former lover an allegation of bullying intimidation against him. However,

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Speaker 2: he was acting in a consultant role to the company

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Speaker 2: and then returned as executive chair on twenty six February.

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Speaker 2: Whatever the intricacies of what's happened, it's a bad look

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Speaker 2: for Wistech, a company that wants to maintain his reputation

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Speaker 2: as a global leader in tracking parcels. Governance issues at

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Speaker 2: Wistech has already caused large investors to pull away. This

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Speaker 2: ain't gonna help.

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Speaker 1: No, no, I can't imagine it will. And I know

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Speaker 1: you have a bit more to say about this. In

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Speaker 1: today's newsletter, the Fear and Greed newsletter. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: signed up already, then jump onto the website Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot a year, or put a link in today's

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Speaker 1: show notes as well. Sean, it is CPI day in Australia.

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Speaker 1: I never thought I would be this excited for a

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Speaker 1: week when the ABS for releasa's inflation figures for the

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Speaker 1: September quarter. It just feels like, though that we have

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Speaker 1: been alluding to this for some time, that it's all

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Speaker 1: been about. No, we have to wait and see what

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Speaker 1: happens with US September quarter figures. A higher than expected

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Speaker 1: figure means a rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day is

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Speaker 1: off the agenda, whereas a more benign number means it

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Speaker 1: is well kind of kind of definitely maybe back on maybe.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullet gave a bit of a

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Speaker 2: hint on Monday Night about her state of mind when

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Speaker 2: it comes to inflation, saying that even though the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate race to four point five percent last month, the

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Speaker 2: labor market remains a bit tight and monthly numbers jump

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Speaker 2: around a bit. That's not what you want to hear

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Speaker 2: from a Reserve Bank governor if you're hoping for a

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Speaker 2: rate cut. She said there were mixed signals coming from

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Speaker 2: the economy. Unemployment's bit higher, but inflation it's also a

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Speaker 2: bit higher, or at least the August reading was. Now

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank, on the one hand, they're saying, don't

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Speaker 2: worry about the monthly inflation month numbers too much. On

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Speaker 2: the other hand, they're saying, oh, that August inflation number

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Speaker 2: was a bit high. So it just sounds like they

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Speaker 2: don't really want to cut rates if they don't have to.

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Speaker 2: But today's number is what all hangs on.

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Speaker 1: It could force their hand a little shorn. But look

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Speaker 1: also talked about asset prices such as equity markets being

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Speaker 1: relatively high.

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Speaker 2: She said, of all this positive sentiment was to turn

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Speaker 2: around suddenly, it could cause financial instability. She went on

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Speaker 2: to say, this a little bit of head scratching among

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Speaker 2: overseas economists and central banks. How does a central bank

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Speaker 2: scratch its head.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot of sandstone that it's just like dandruff.

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Speaker 2: So sandstone is the dandriff of central banks. That's right. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: there is head scratching going on about how much equity

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Speaker 2: markets have run and why risk premiums are so low.

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Speaker 2: You know you read between the lines there. Once again,

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Speaker 2: she's just surprised at how high some asset prices are

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Speaker 2: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Well, she has a fair point, really doesn't she, Because

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Speaker 1: Wall Street you're training it at or near record high

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Speaker 1: is notwithstanding the introduction of tariffs. The Japanese market is

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Speaker 1: up around I think it's what sixty percent since its

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Speaker 1: most recent low back in April. In the UK, the

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Speaker 1: foot seat is at a record high. The stocks Europe

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Speaker 1: six hundred, You've talked about that before, a measure of

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Speaker 1: the six hundred largest companies in Europe that's hit a

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Speaker 1: new record. What about the our what about our market? Sean,

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Speaker 1: about the ASX two hundred.

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Speaker 2: I'd love to be able to stand here this morning

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Speaker 2: and say, well, yep, we're at a record high. Back

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Speaker 2: the market fell half a percent yesterday, can so we're

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Speaker 2: trading at well, not at but near a record high.

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Speaker 2: It's trading just over nine thousand points basically yesterday. The

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Speaker 2: banks did well, the miners, especially the gold miners, didn't

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Speaker 2: do quite so well.

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Speaker 1: And just before we leave markets, Sean Gold it's had

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Speaker 1: a bit of a slump back below four thousand US

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Speaker 1: dollars announced it has.

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Speaker 2: After jumping twenty seven percent seven weeks to a high

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Speaker 2: of four thousand, three hundred and eighty one US dollars

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Speaker 2: announced twenty October. Well, what we've seen her in the

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Speaker 2: twenty ninth October down nine ten percent, back below four

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Speaker 2: thousand US still was now still really high. But I

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Speaker 2: just feel sorry for all those retail investors are purchased

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Speaker 2: gold over the past couple of weeks, And.

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Speaker 1: So what that's all about? Just investors not feeling so

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Speaker 1: anxious anymore? Is it all about kind of China and

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Speaker 1: the US and the trade tensions easing. Just everyone's just

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Speaker 1: feeling a little bit better.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's exactly right. China US is the

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Speaker 2: main story there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Sean, It's Wednesday. It's not just CPI day, Sean,

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Speaker 1: it is also time for business by Numbers, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by zero check out zero dot com slash au.

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Speaker 1: You've got three numbers that we need to know this week.

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Speaker 1: Give us the first one.

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Speaker 2: Ten billion dollars the value of Richard White stock and

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Speaker 2: weis tech global. Still wouldn't be ironic if the sales

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Speaker 2: worth one hundred and twenty two million something went awry

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Speaker 2: when he's got ten billion sitting there. Yeah. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The second one, Sean is one that you just meet,

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Speaker 1: which is the four thousand US dollars an ounce, which,

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Speaker 1: if you weren't listening thirty seconds ago, could be in trance.

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Speaker 2: Agald down nearly ten percent in the last ten days out.

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Speaker 1: And finally Sewane. The third number is a number that

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Speaker 1: we haven't yet covered.

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Speaker 2: Now eighty nine percent the value lost in Dominoes since

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Speaker 2: its peak a few years back.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll get stuck into that story in just a moment.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a second with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sewn.

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Speaker 1: Domino's Pizza's share price surged seventeen percent yesterday after a

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Speaker 1: report in the Australian Financial Review suggested that Pe Group

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Speaker 1: Bain was interested in buying the would you say struggling

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Speaker 1: fast food outlet beleaguered?

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Speaker 2: Yes, in trouble, however you want to call it babbit.

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Speaker 2: This was in battle. That's a better way of putting.

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Speaker 2: This was a crazy day for Domino's. Soon after the

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Speaker 2: release of the report and the share price surge, Dominoes

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Speaker 2: went into a trading halt. Now Domino's major shareholders, billionaire

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Speaker 2: businessman Jack Cowen, he of Hungry Jack fame. He's now

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Speaker 2: running the Domino's business. It's a company's share price peaked

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and sixty one bucks, now worth just

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Speaker 2: about eighteen dollars, and that's after that spike. Yesterday, the

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Speaker 2: AFR reported that Bain was looking at a deal to

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Speaker 2: acquire all or part of Domino's, though added that that

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Speaker 2: didn't mean an offer had been made. Later in the day,

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Speaker 2: domino Has confirmed that it hadn't received an offer. Share

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Speaker 2: starting trading again. By the clothes, I mean Dominoes was down.

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Speaker 2: It was up about four percent, So from seventeen percent

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Speaker 2: to four percent, it closed about seven percent higher. What

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Speaker 2: I would say about this, and knowing the people who

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Speaker 2: wrote the story in the fin Review, where there's smoke,

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Speaker 2: there's fire, any deal could be worth up to four

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Speaker 2: billion dollars. People briefly the matter said, though Domino's market

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Speaker 2: CAP's about one point seven billion dollars, have four billion dollars,

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Speaker 2: I mean it would carry debt, but four billion dollars

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Speaker 2: sounds like a hefty price. While it's Stralia and New

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Speaker 2: Zealand operations have done reasonably well, it has underperformed in Japan,

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Speaker 2: and Europe. In fact, in August, Domino's posted its first

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Speaker 2: and you're loss in twenty years.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested in your take on this because you have

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Speaker 1: worked in newspapers, including The Financial Review, And the thing

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Speaker 1: is that a reporter, a business journalist, and a publication

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Speaker 1: like the Financial Review, they don't just print things really nilly.

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Speaker 1: There is obviously information from kind of somewhere circulating out there,

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Speaker 1: so it is interesting to see the way the market

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Speaker 1: reacts to coverage like this, isn't.

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Speaker 2: It Yeah, And very much depends where it comes from.

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Speaker 2: This was in Street Talk, which is probably the best

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Speaker 2: gossip column in the country in terms of business news.

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Speaker 2: Bain could well be doing this and floating the idea

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Speaker 2: to see kind of what people think of it too.

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Speaker 2: So certainly corporates use media outlet slightly fin Review to

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Speaker 2: kind of get an idea out there. Domino said they

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Speaker 2: haven't received any offer. They haven't even held talks with Bain,

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Speaker 2: so it's clearly coming from the Bay side.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Sean, The four point two billion dollar listed insurance

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Speaker 1: broking firm AUB has received a takeover bid from private

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Speaker 1: equity firm EQT. Now this one's a lot firmer than

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Speaker 1: what we've just talked about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but this is a weird story too. So under

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Speaker 2: the terms of the proposal, AUB shareholders would receive forty

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Speaker 2: five dollars a share. AUB so like retail wholesale insurance brokers,

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Speaker 2: underwriting agencies six thousand stuff, really big name of the

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Speaker 2: insurance world. The bid was actually received four weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: so yesterday yesterday is the first time the market heard

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Speaker 2: about it. Having said that, I said yesterday Tuesday. Having

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Speaker 2: said that, on Monday, AUB share price some more than

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Speaker 2: ten percent, right, so that doesn't smell right. That triggered

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Speaker 2: a question from the AX why is your share price

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Speaker 2: rising so fast? AUB immediately went into a training pause.

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Speaker 2: It then said well you know this morning or sorry,

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Speaker 2: Chuesday day morning it came out and said, yep, we've

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Speaker 2: had this offer. Its share price went up yesterday six

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Speaker 2: percent to thirty eight dollars ten still well blow that

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Speaker 2: forty five dollar mark, but it's just a little two

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Speaker 2: coincidental that jumped ten percent in the session before the announcement.

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Speaker 2: I reckon, we're going to hear more on that one.

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Speaker 1: I suspect you might be right. And look, there's been

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Speaker 1: some big moves, we may as well mention another big

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Speaker 1: one shown. CSL share price tumbled sixteen percent yesterday, taking

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Speaker 1: its fall since mid August to thirty five percent. This

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Speaker 1: came after it downgraded its revenue and profit guardance.

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Speaker 2: A twelve percent drop in US vaccine rates hit CSL hard.

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Speaker 2: The group has shelved plans to demerge its Sakairis vaccine business.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the company's three main business union units,

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Speaker 2: the vaccines unit its shelf plans to demerge it. The

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Speaker 2: four yesterday pushed CSL's share price to a six year low.

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Speaker 2: It came as held held its annual general meeting in Melbourne,

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Speaker 2: where the board received a second strike on executive pay

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Speaker 2: in two years. We hear lots about first strikes and

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Speaker 2: will they get a second strike? Bast see they don't.

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Speaker 2: SESL definitely did. When you get two strikes, shareholders then

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Speaker 2: vote on whether to spill the board. They didn't vote

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Speaker 2: for a spill, so at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: nothing really happened. Ninety two percent voted against spilling the board.

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Speaker 2: But the message is loud and clear. Chair Brian McNamee,

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Speaker 2: he used to be the CEO, is under plenty of

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Speaker 2: pressure there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just quickly before we get to international news. Australia's

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Speaker 1: biggest aluminium smelter, Tomago Aluminium in New South Wales, has

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Speaker 1: been consulting with employees on the potential closure of the plant,

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Speaker 1: which employs about one thousand people.

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Speaker 2: The venture, which is partly owned by Rio Tinto, said

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Speaker 2: it has yet to identifying a pathway that supports commercially

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Speaker 2: sustainable operations beyond twenty twenty eight. Previously, Rio said closure

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Speaker 2: of the plant was possible once its current elect city

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Speaker 2: supply contract with agl Energy expires at the end of

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Speaker 2: that year. Yesterday, Federal Defense Minister Pat Conroy said that

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Speaker 2: Labor was open to a bailout of the Tamagot Tomogo.

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Speaker 2: I always get the word wrong, Michael, it's me.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those ones, right, And you know, we

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Speaker 1: talk about a lot of places, we talk about a

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Speaker 1: lot of companies and things, and even as you're doing it,

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Speaker 1: don't you find yourself second guessing?

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Speaker 2: So I said, can you tell me what that words

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Speaker 2: is now?

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Speaker 1: Tomogo?

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Speaker 2: Thank you Tomogo Aluminium Smelter. Yeah, so Labour's opened to

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Speaker 2: the bailer. In fact, the New South Wales and federal

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Speaker 2: governments went to them a few weeks back and actually

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Speaker 2: offered money. But yesterday anyway, Pat Conroy, the Defense Minister,

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Speaker 2: said Rare needs to do the right thing by workers

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Speaker 2: who have supported it for several decades. Stay listening to

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Speaker 2: that one turn into international news now. Sean President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump said the US Japan Alliance was at its strongest

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Speaker 2: level as he kicked off a meeting on trade and

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Speaker 2: investment with Japan's new leader on the second leg of

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Speaker 2: a week long Asian trip. Trump said relations with Washington's

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Speaker 2: most important regional ally would strengthen further as he congratulated

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Speaker 2: Sanai Takichi on becoming Japan's first female prime minister. The

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Speaker 2: US president said it was an honor to meet the

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Speaker 2: Japanese leader, whose election as the first female prime minister

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Speaker 2: was I quote a big deal. The leaders signed to agreements,

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Speaker 2: including one that called on each government to take further

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Speaker 2: steps for a new golden age for US Japanese security alliance.

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Speaker 2: The second agreement is aimed at securing the supply of

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Speaker 2: critical minerals and rare earths. Hold on, didn't we just

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Speaker 2: do one with Australia. Come on? Was all over the

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Speaker 2: very fickle, very fickle. Also, that deal involves investing in

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Speaker 2: mining and processing of rare earths and critical minerals. Of course,

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Speaker 2: that's all about the push to reduce the countries in

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Speaker 2: the US, it's reliance on China.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of Australia's deal with the US, we thought the

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Speaker 1: meeting between Anthony Albernezi and Donald try was positive and glowing.

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Speaker 1: This meeting between Donald Trump and the new Japanese PM.

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Speaker 1: They Donald Trump was positively gushing in his praise and

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Speaker 1: it went both ways. These two are clearly big fans

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Speaker 1: of each other, and so it was it was just something.

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Speaker 2: She's very conservative. Oh yes, your Prime Minister. And the

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Speaker 2: reports are that it's kind of like half a trillion

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Speaker 2: dollars that Japan's going to spend in the US to

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Speaker 2: get this deal out of the life. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think one of the things that they

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Speaker 1: were buying was a bunch of maybe Ford's was it it?

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Speaker 1: It was American made cars, which is such a strange

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Speaker 1: thing for Japan to do, which is which produces so

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Speaker 1: many automobiles, to be buying American made cars. But hey,

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Speaker 1: it was a very good sign and a very good

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Speaker 1: way to start a meeting with the US President, Isn't

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Speaker 1: it true? One last one? Sean Bill Gates, the Microsoft

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Speaker 1: co founder who has spent billions of dollars of his

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Speaker 1: own money to raise the alarm about the dangers of

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Speaker 1: climate change, is now pushing back against what he calls

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Speaker 1: a doomsday outlook, and he appearstal shifted his stance somewhat

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Speaker 1: on the risks posed by a warming planet.

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Speaker 2: In a lengthy memo released and Tuesday, Gates sought to

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Speaker 2: damp and growing alarmism about around how people describe the

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Speaker 2: effects of rising temperatures, According to The New York Times, Instead,

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Speaker 2: he called for redirecting efforts towards improving lives in the

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Speaker 2: developing world. I quote him, Although climate change will have

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Speaker 2: serious consequences, particularly for people in the poorest countries, it

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Speaker 2: will not lead to humanity's demise, Gates road. People will

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Speaker 2: be able to live and thrive in most places on

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Speaker 2: Earth for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 1: What's encouraging.

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Speaker 2: The Yeah, that's right. What about Wednesday week? I'm not

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Speaker 2: so sure.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, I can't see that far. Okay. Coming

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Speaker 1: up next jo On is Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 1: Speaking today to Jeremy Barker from ocn C stratig to consultants.

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Speaker 1: They've done a big study of Australian retailers and we're

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Speaker 1: talking Colds and Woolies and Aldi and Costco and Bunnings

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Speaker 1: and Dan Murphy's and a bunch of other ones and

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Speaker 1: kind of where they are seen by consumers. And it's

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Speaker 1: a really interesting insight because it kind of goes against

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Speaker 1: some of what we have seen in the past. But

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Speaker 1: it's a large survey about the importance of trust and

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Speaker 1: the way that consumers are engaging with these brands. And

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Speaker 1: it's a bit of an eye opener, I think for

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Speaker 1: Colds and for Woolies, particularly about the rising presence of

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Speaker 1: Aldi and Costco in Australia, and also Dan Murphy's dominance

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Speaker 1: in the liquor space might be shaken in the next

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Speaker 1: twelve months. So it's a really interesting conversation. It's coming

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Speaker 1: up next to the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au, which

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Speaker 1: is where you sign up for that free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: There's only a couple of days left to get in

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Speaker 1: the drawer for the exclusive Fear and Greed merchandise pack

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00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 1: to get you your chair. It's to win a hat

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Speaker 1: and a mug that's.

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Speaker 2: Really extremely valuable. Must be like twenty bucks or something

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Speaker 2: in Tonal twenty five.

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Speaker 1: But much like the jewels stolen lu Sean, they are

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Speaker 1: priceless inestimable historical value.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twenty ninth of October twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and Atosphere and Greed. Have a great day.