WEBVTT - Why AMP bought crypto (with Shane Oliver) 

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>James Kirby. Welcome aboard everybody. What a really interesting time.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to do a couple of things today and

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<v Speaker 1>I think you'll find both of them very interesting. First

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<v Speaker 1>of all, a great response, I might say maybe a

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<v Speaker 1>storm of response might be the right phrase for last

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<v Speaker 1>week's show on Crypto with Jackie Clark. Now, what we

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<v Speaker 1>did in that show was basically a skeptics corner, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>So we put up somebody from institutional Australia, from the

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<v Speaker 1>conventional world of Australian investing, an ASX board director, a

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<v Speaker 1>family office member, accountant to give a view on crypto.

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<v Speaker 1>And obviously it was a very skeptical view. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting because nearly I think the tempo of the Money

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<v Speaker 1>Pazza's audience has changed, become much more receptive I think,

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<v Speaker 1>and enthusiastic in many ways about crypto, though Maney remains skeptical,

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<v Speaker 1>including Jackie, and she had some very strong points. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>what I want to do today is put the other

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<v Speaker 1>point of view, okay, and again it's institutional Australia. I

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<v Speaker 1>could easily get someone from crypto to talk about crypto.

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<v Speaker 1>Why would I do that? If I ask someone in

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<v Speaker 1>real estate to talk about whether it's a good time

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<v Speaker 1>to buy property, what would they say? If I ask

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<v Speaker 1>a gold miner, is it a good time to buy gold?

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<v Speaker 1>What will they say? This is not the nature of

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<v Speaker 1>the exercise to get people from the crypto world to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about it. It's to get people who are conventional

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<v Speaker 1>investors with a lot of respect from our audience and

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<v Speaker 1>from me, to take a view on crypto. Jackie's view

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<v Speaker 1>was very skeptical, as she also in some ways did

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<v Speaker 1>not go into great detail on it, and I understand

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<v Speaker 1>why because that is a typical response. I don't go

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<v Speaker 1>if I don't believe in gold mining, I don't go

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<v Speaker 1>so deep best to understand all the aspects of gold mining.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's the same with crypto. So who could we

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<v Speaker 1>get to talk about it? And also, very usefully, because

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<v Speaker 1>it's the last show of the year, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>also have a quick wrap on how the year has gone.

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<v Speaker 1>But first, the most interesting organization I think institution in

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<v Speaker 1>Australia in relation to crypto is not a major crypto

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<v Speaker 1>player or a major crypto exchange, believe it or not,

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<v Speaker 1>it's AMP, and AMP plays that role for the simple

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<v Speaker 1>reason they were the first, are the first major financial

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<v Speaker 1>institution as super fun if you don't mind to invest

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<v Speaker 1>in crypto. They invested twenty seven million dollars a few

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<v Speaker 1>months ago in crypto, substantial investment in many people's eyes,

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<v Speaker 1>you can say, is a percentage of AMP is tiny.

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<v Speaker 1>It's twenty seven million. It's twenty seven million, and they

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<v Speaker 1>put it into crypto, and I want to know why

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<v Speaker 1>they are enthusiastic about it. The ideal person, absolutely ideal

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<v Speaker 1>person to talk for AMP is an old friend of

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<v Speaker 1>the show, an old friend of mine, Shane Oliver, the

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<v Speaker 1>chief economist. I know him for a long time. He's

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<v Speaker 1>been on the show before.

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<v Speaker 2>How are you, Shane, I'm good, James, thanks for having

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<v Speaker 2>me back.

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<v Speaker 1>I never thought i'd have you on the show explaining

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<v Speaker 1>why your organization spent fifty seven million dollars on crypto.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think it's absolutely fascinating that you did. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's very plucky that AMP did. It's now we

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<v Speaker 1>see sometime later JP Morgan is in there, Walmart is

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<v Speaker 1>in there making investments in crypto, putting money behind it

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<v Speaker 1>first and foremost. Can you explain to our listeners, some

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<v Speaker 1>of who are crypto fans, some who remains skeptical, why

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<v Speaker 1>AMP put twenty seven million dollars into bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 2>I certainly can, and you might some might say that

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<v Speaker 2>I'm in this skeptical camp too, And I have written

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<v Speaker 2>notes on crypto over the years, starting back class decade.

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<v Speaker 2>But I guess even I always thought that there was

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<v Speaker 2>some potential element of value in there, and that relates

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<v Speaker 2>to two things. The use of the blockchain that underpins

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<v Speaker 2>crypto for smart contracts and various uses, and that is

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<v Speaker 2>already evident, and that, particularly in the case of some

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<v Speaker 2>cryptos like Ethereum and Solana and so on, potential uses

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<v Speaker 2>an alternative currency, central bank, digital currencies and so on.

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<v Speaker 2>And also with a bitcoin increasing use as a store

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<v Speaker 2>of value alternative to gold. So I know all the

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<v Speaker 2>reasons for skepticism about bitcoin. In fact, I've got a

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<v Speaker 2>list in front of me from the last Oliver's Insights

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<v Speaker 2>I wrote on it, which was earlier last year. It's

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<v Speaker 2>coin itself. Yeah, it's unlikely it become useful for everyday transactions.

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<v Speaker 2>You can't buy a cup of coffee, whether or if

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<v Speaker 2>you do, you'll pay, it'll take you a lot of time,

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<v Speaker 2>it'll be slow and all that sort of stuff. It's volatile,

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<v Speaker 2>it's hard to value because it doesn't generate rents and

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<v Speaker 2>dibdends like other assets, and of course it's been associated

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<v Speaker 2>with nefarious activities. Are often thought that way. But even

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<v Speaker 2>though I'm skeptical, I think we as an organization AMP

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<v Speaker 2>has responsibility to its members, fiduciary responsibility to look at

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<v Speaker 2>all options, and it could be an emerging asset class.

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<v Speaker 2>It has been around now since what two thousand and nine,

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<v Speaker 2>and so it seems like it's becoming part of the

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<v Speaker 2>furniture in terms of the investing worlds. It's increasingly getting

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<v Speaker 2>acceptance from regulators. They're taking it seriously and regulatory framework

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<v Speaker 2>is being put around it. So it's moving from the

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<v Speaker 2>wild West, if you like, to some degree into the mainstream.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a whole generation out there of digital savvy young

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<v Speaker 2>people investors who are becoming investors, and they're more familiar

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<v Speaker 2>with this. They're probably thinking. In old days they might

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<v Speaker 2>have thought, well, i'm skeptical about the government, I'm skeptical

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<v Speaker 2>about inflation. I want something which is a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>a hedge against that on a long term basis. Previous

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<v Speaker 2>generation might have gone gold is for me. Now some

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<v Speaker 2>of those people are saying maybe bitcoins for me, and

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<v Speaker 2>Bitcoin by free nature has resisted the temptation to weaken

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<v Speaker 2>some of the protocols around it, you know, in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the about proof of work and proof of stake

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<v Speaker 2>and all that sort of stuff that other cryptocurrencies have

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<v Speaker 2>gone down that path. Bitcoin todd with it to some degree.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think Bitcoin probably has held back a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit because of this view that it wants to be

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<v Speaker 2>seen as something that's difficult to get hold of and

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<v Speaker 2>that preserves its value to some degree. We all know

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<v Speaker 2>that there's something there's a limit on the amount of

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<v Speaker 2>bitcoin that it can ever be mine to twenty one

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<v Speaker 2>million bitcoins, and we're well through that, and so that's

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<v Speaker 2>going to limited supply. But because of all those things,

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<v Speaker 2>you got this. I can understand the skepticism argument. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got to be cautious, but I can also understand

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<v Speaker 2>that it's becoming part of the investment universe, and therefore

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<v Speaker 2>we thought we had to consider it. We had a

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<v Speaker 2>lengthy debate. I put up all the skeptical arguments is

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<v Speaker 2>to expect that I might in the end even I

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<v Speaker 2>decided we should have a look into this, and we

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<v Speaker 2>did in May last year. As you say, we invested

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seven million dollars in bitcoin when it was then

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<v Speaker 2>priced at sixty two thousand. It was less. It was

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<v Speaker 2>about point zero five percent of our super funds, so

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<v Speaker 2>less than point one percent. Probably close too point one

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<v Speaker 2>percent now because it's gone up in value.

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<v Speaker 1>But it seems to me that between the lines, the

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<v Speaker 1>most compelling argument you've put forward is it a fear

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<v Speaker 1>of missing out.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I wouldn't say that's the argument. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>main argument was that it was becoming part of the

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<v Speaker 2>investment universe, and it's moving from the shadows from the

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<v Speaker 2>wild West into the investing universe. And the last year,

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<v Speaker 2>I want I think one of the big factors in

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<v Speaker 2>our minds was the approval of ETFs by US regulators

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<v Speaker 2>on this front in regards to bitcoin. So Trump only

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<v Speaker 2>came along after we'd made the decision in May. And

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<v Speaker 2>you can argue that when you think about it, it

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<v Speaker 2>does offer some diversification. It's not perfectly correlated with shares,

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<v Speaker 2>and there is some tendency for it as a growth

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<v Speaker 2>asset to go down when shares run to trouble and

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<v Speaker 2>it goes up by more than shares when shares do well,

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<v Speaker 2>but it has an imperfect correlation with shares.

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<v Speaker 3>What is your view on it?

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<v Speaker 1>If we accept it to an asseid class and you

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<v Speaker 1>have clearly and you have put your money where your

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<v Speaker 1>mountains if you like AMP, what's your view? Is it

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<v Speaker 1>correlated or is it non correlated? It started as a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of libertarian completely anti establishment thing where people would say, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't trust the banks, I don't trust the government,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera. It moves and moves towards the mainstream, that's

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<v Speaker 1>beyond doubt. If the US is talking about a strategic

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<v Speaker 1>reserve with crypto, then it is core mainstream. But I

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<v Speaker 1>want to ask you, as an acid class, do you

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<v Speaker 1>see it or do you know yet whether it's correlated

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<v Speaker 1>or non correlated? In other words, is it a gold,

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<v Speaker 1>a digital gold that we can depend on when things

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<v Speaker 1>go wrong, or is it simply correlated where it just

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<v Speaker 1>flies up when the market's hot and flies down when

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<v Speaker 1>the market's cold.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think there is an issue that as time

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<v Speaker 2>goes on it becomes more institutional, it'll be put into

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<v Speaker 2>the growth bucket potentially, and therefore there might be some

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<v Speaker 2>correlation with share markets, and gold has that to some

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<v Speaker 2>degree as well. You think about the initial phases of

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<v Speaker 2>the GFC, gold went down, and it's partly because you

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<v Speaker 2>can see a little bit on the In the last weekend,

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<v Speaker 2>US starts dropping bombs on Iran, investors are a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit nervous they can't sell shares because the share market's closed.

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<v Speaker 2>There was some downwards pressure on bitcoin at that point

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<v Speaker 2>in time, and I think the correlation when I last

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<v Speaker 2>looked at it was something like zero point four percent

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<v Speaker 2>against the share market. It's not one percent, so it's

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<v Speaker 2>not correlating one for one, but there is some correlation

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<v Speaker 2>there with the share market. And that's partly because as

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<v Speaker 2>it becomes more institutional, then investors see it in that

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<v Speaker 2>particular bucket as a growth asset and when they want

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<v Speaker 2>to sell shares, so crypto might get a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>the selling pressure. But in a broader sense, there is

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<v Speaker 2>another way of looking at it, and that is because

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<v Speaker 2>it has the limited supply. I suspect that over time

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<v Speaker 2>it probably offers more of an inflation hedge than shares

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<v Speaker 2>to because of that limited supply, you could always say

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<v Speaker 2>we should also be skeptical of gold. It's only got

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<v Speaker 2>value because we believe it has.

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<v Speaker 3>Become accumulated historical.

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<v Speaker 2>Historical experience that it's got value. But these days it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't do much. It's not used in teeth. You can

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<v Speaker 2>use ceramics, so the porcelaina whatever it is in your

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<v Speaker 2>teeth these days, so it's a bit different. It's used

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<v Speaker 2>in jewelry. But interestingly, that's a tiny fraction of the

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<v Speaker 2>actual demand for gold, and there's little relationship between drill

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<v Speaker 2>demand and the price.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're seeing that it's just a speculative.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's a I think it's become what's happening here

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<v Speaker 2>is that bitcoin is almost becoming like a digital version

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<v Speaker 2>of gold. It's a store of value. It's not necessarily

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<v Speaker 2>speculative where people just buy into it on the grounds

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<v Speaker 2>that it may go up, but obviously people hope that

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<v Speaker 2>will occur over time. But you can say, we do

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<v Speaker 2>have gold in our portfolios because it's in their commodity exposure.

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<v Speaker 2>So if bitcoin is becoming part of the mainstream, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>this case to have bitcoin in there as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And the case is more so than it's a store

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<v Speaker 1>of value rather than it's a bit respeculative option.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I would think so, no doubt. Most people say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>so it's two thousand and nine, it's gone up exponentially,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe that'll continue. I think you've got to be a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit careful there. There's the old disclaimer that all

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<v Speaker 2>fund managers use. Past performance is not a guide to

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<v Speaker 2>future performance. It was a new asset class when it

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<v Speaker 2>came along in two thousand and nine. If you look

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<v Speaker 2>at it from each look at every four years, it

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<v Speaker 2>goes through a cycle. Each trough to trough in that

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<v Speaker 2>cycle has seen a slowing in the rate of increase

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<v Speaker 2>in the value of bitcoin, or each peak to peak

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<v Speaker 2>is sen a slowing in the rate of increase, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's normal. It's just like a startup company.

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<v Speaker 2>Initially you can make huge gains a lot of risk

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<v Speaker 2>around that, but it will slow down over time. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think ultimately it settles down to providing probably somewhat

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<v Speaker 2>steadier gains, although I yeah, we get to see the

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<v Speaker 2>downcycle which will come of course in bitcoin, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>part and parcel of that new asset class.

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<v Speaker 1>Why do you think no other super fund has followed

0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>you into the market. It's been quite a while now,

0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 1>four five months, but extremely lucrative. Right, you had forty

0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>percent on this particular investment, but most of your peers

0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 1>institutionally remain so cautious that they will do it.

0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 3>Let's put it that way.

0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we undertook the investment in May. I think by

0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.720
<v Speaker 2>the time it was formerly announced it was November December

0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.600
<v Speaker 2>or thereabouts, but that's still six seven months ago. I

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.000
<v Speaker 2>suspect that over time you will see some of those

0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.640
<v Speaker 2>super funds invest I think a lot of them had

0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 2>probably said we're not going to do it and didn't

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.960
<v Speaker 2>even have any plans. I suspect you probably find there's

0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.079
<v Speaker 2>a couple out there who probably do have plans.

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:34.640
<v Speaker 3>Are you guessing or do you know?

0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.319
<v Speaker 2>I'm purely guessing here. I don't have any inside information

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:38.559
<v Speaker 2>about other super funds.

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.040
<v Speaker 3>All right, okay, And just one other thing.

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.559
<v Speaker 1>Having put in twenty seven million and having made what

0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.200
<v Speaker 1>forty percent, do you think AMP will put in more?

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 2>Like As with all asset classes, they're all the precise

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 2>exposers always under review, and we will continue to review

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:56.800
<v Speaker 2>our exposure to bitcoin along with other assets. So I

0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 2>can't indicate either way on that.

0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.080
<v Speaker 3>You can't hold it out, though I'm.

0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:01.560
<v Speaker 2>Not gonna roll it out. I'm not going to roll

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 2>it in. It sounds like.

0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 1>You're used to talking to journalists, that's clearly obvious.

0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.559
<v Speaker 3>Or we'll take a short break. We'll be back in

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:09.959
<v Speaker 3>a moment.

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Hello, Welcome back to the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm

0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.479
<v Speaker 1>James Kirby and I'm talking to Shane Oliver, chief economist

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 1>of AMP, specifically in this first section of the show

0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:30.000
<v Speaker 1>about crypto, and of course Shane works for AMPS, the

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 1>chief e columnists there and they were the first financial

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:37.640
<v Speaker 1>institution super fund in Australia to make an investment in crypto.

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.720
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting, Shane, self managed super funds way ahead of

0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.520
<v Speaker 1>you in that respect. There's a billion according to the ATO,

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>there's a billion dollars in SMSF funds in crypto. So

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.320
<v Speaker 1>in that respect it should be no surprise that a

0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 1>major fund would sooner or later go into crypto. Now,

0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:58.960
<v Speaker 1>I just want to bring in now some of the

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 1>issues that came up in the first show, and I'm

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 1>going to just read the question which is from Scott,

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.720
<v Speaker 1>but it also reflects observations by Vince and Henry and

0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.720
<v Speaker 1>Dean and Stephen and many others who came in and Basically,

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 1>they wanted to take what Jackie Clark said, some of

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 1>her skepticism, if you like, about crypto, and they tackled

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.200
<v Speaker 1>it and said that she was the wrong person to

0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 1>talk about crypto. That I totally disagree with that she

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 1>is the right person. She is a classic example of

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>someone who is skeptical and doesn't want the organizations or

0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>the institution she represents to go in there. That's why

0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 1>I have Shane on today. His organization has gone in there.

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 1>So there was a couple of observations there that some

0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>of them are on technicus as I say, which I

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 1>don't think we need even go into, because there is

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 1>still an element I think Shane of belief that if

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>you don't believe it, you don't need to know that. Honestly,

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't need to know the technicals. But why should

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 1>you go deep into understanding its complexities if you don't

0:14:58.760 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 1>believe it in the first place.

0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 2>Wait, you don't need to. You can take the approach

0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 2>of just investing broadly. I'm not an investor in individual things.

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:09.840
<v Speaker 2>You had a question in there which you haven't asked.

0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 2>Do I have it personally? No, I don't have it personally.

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 3>It was on my list story.

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 2>But then I don't have BHP or CBA or any

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.360
<v Speaker 2>other thing. Personally, I'm a macro guy. I invest in

0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 2>the big picture, and so therefore I have my money

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 2>and Super and it's in AMP funds, and might have

0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:27.120
<v Speaker 2>some money outside Super and his index funds. But obviously,

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 2>when you buy a property, it's a specific investment, like

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 2>the family home, the one I'm sitting in right now.

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 2>But that doesn't prove that I have a negative or

0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.360
<v Speaker 2>positive view on it or not supportive of the decision

0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 2>by AMP. The fact that I haven't bought it individually,

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 2>but because I haven't bought other things individually either. But

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 2>I think, just on that SEMSF observation, we had members

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.600
<v Speaker 2>over the last few years have been asking should you buy,

0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:50.360
<v Speaker 2>and Crypto always get a little bit worried because by

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 2>the time they ask, it's usually when crypto has gone

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 2>up in value double to or forty percent. No one

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 2>of course was asking when it collapsed eighty percent through

0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 2>one of those downturns. But so it doesn't surprise me

0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 2>that SMSF investors are already in there because we had

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 2>members who are interested, and that indicated to us that

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 2>we should be looking at it, which we did. But

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 2>I've lost track of your original question here because you've

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.320
<v Speaker 2>raised a few points there, But hopefully that's covered it.

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 3>I did really a few points. Look.

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.280
<v Speaker 1>One of the things, obviously was a lot of the

0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:23.760
<v Speaker 1>crypto people when someone is skeptical about it, the crypto enthusiast.

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.160
<v Speaker 1>If you don't see you don't understand this, you don't

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 1>understand this, you don't understand how.

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:28.040
<v Speaker 3>It all works.

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't understand CSL. CSL is one of the top

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 1>ten companies in Australia. I don't understand what they do.

0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 2>We've had that one from Central Banks as well. They

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 2>don't understand it. On the one hand, I think if

0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 2>you don't understand it and you don't feel comfortable, then

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 2>you shouldn't invest as an individual. That's true, but then

0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.280
<v Speaker 2>it is also true you don't have to fully understand

0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 2>everything to invest in it. And in my super funds

0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 2>or my investments outside super well, I haven't bought specific stocks.

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 2>There are some companies in there which I won't understand

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 2>their model and what they're doing and why, but I

0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 2>don't need to. And that's the key here. If you've

0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 2>got all your money invested in bitcoin, then I think

0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 2>you should understand it. But if you've got a well

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.880
<v Speaker 2>diversified portfolio, you just see it part of the investment universe.

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:08.919
<v Speaker 2>You just got some exposure in there, just like you've

0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:11.360
<v Speaker 2>got some exposure of other things, then you probably don't

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.840
<v Speaker 2>need to have the same degree of understanding. And it

0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.080
<v Speaker 2>is a little bit technical when you get into it.

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.600
<v Speaker 2>I've in the interests of finding out what it was

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 2>several years ago. I've read a lot about bitcoin, but

0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't consider myself an expert. And if you put

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:25.800
<v Speaker 2>me up head to head with some of the people

0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 2>who might be listening to this, who spend a lot

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 2>of time, then they would run rings around me, And

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:32.480
<v Speaker 2>that's fair enough. I don't disagree with that.

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 1>It's very interesting you see that. So there was always

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.800
<v Speaker 1>that traditional response, if you don't understand it, don't buy it.

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:40.200
<v Speaker 1>But really there's a point of which that stops. CSL

0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.800
<v Speaker 1>would not be where it is today if everyone, yeah,

0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:44.720
<v Speaker 1>it didn't buy it because it didn't understand it.

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.040
<v Speaker 2>That's right. Sometimes you do have to have a bit

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.320
<v Speaker 2>of faith in these things. And I think the broader

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 2>issue is if you don't understand it, you're fair enough.

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 2>Maybe you look into it. That's one way to go

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.000
<v Speaker 2>about it. The other approach is you don't understand it,

0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:58.960
<v Speaker 2>but you think there might be something in it, then

0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.760
<v Speaker 2>have it as part of a broad diversified portfolio. Don't

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 2>just put all your eggs into it.

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.280
<v Speaker 1>Very interesting and of course now people can obviously everyone

0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:09.120
<v Speaker 1>listening news now that you don't have to go off

0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:12.120
<v Speaker 1>to some bitcoin exchange and go through all the red

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.600
<v Speaker 1>tape if you like to get involved. You can just

0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:17.320
<v Speaker 1>buy an ETF and the ets are regulated.

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.679
<v Speaker 2>That's incredibly important because it was one of the reasons

0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:21.440
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of people were skeptical because they'd

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.280
<v Speaker 2>heard it about all the problems on the exchanges, money

0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:25.840
<v Speaker 2>being hacked and all that sort of stuff, and the

0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 2>exchanges running into trouble, that this is issue a few

0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 2>years ago. I think that was when it was part

0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 2>of the wild West, and that's now starting to change,

0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.399
<v Speaker 2>which is good. And by the way, we haven't actually

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:39.200
<v Speaker 2>bought bitcoin, the physical bitcoin. You don't have physical bitcoin.

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:40.360
<v Speaker 2>We bought futures.

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:42.679
<v Speaker 3>Was that because that was the only way to do it, chin.

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.720
<v Speaker 2>Or No, It's just the easiest way. As a super fund.

0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:47.240
<v Speaker 2>It was just an easy way for us to do it.

0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:50.160
<v Speaker 2>I mean oftentimes we'll buy we don't buy physical shares,

0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:52.680
<v Speaker 2>will often buy futures on them or maybe the ETF.

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 2>So it's just another way of getting exposure. It's an

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 2>easy way to get in and out. It's quite liquid.

0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.680
<v Speaker 2>That's just start and parcels the way we do things.

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 2>Those features are obviously tied to bitcoin, so it's effectively

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:03.600
<v Speaker 2>Bitcoin exposures.

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.160
<v Speaker 1>So yes, course, yes, yeah, yeah, but it's just it's

0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:07.840
<v Speaker 1>just a particular structure, all right.

0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:08.760
<v Speaker 3>Andrew said.

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 1>The reason that Jackie Clark and allegedly the Governor of

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.000
<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank and many others who should know better

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 1>say they don't understand bitcoin is that they want to

0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>think of it as an investment that should have an

0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:25.280
<v Speaker 1>intrinsic value. It's not, and it doesn't. Bitcoin itself may

0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:29.399
<v Speaker 1>not survive, but now we know how it works, the

0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.840
<v Speaker 1>genie won't go back into the bottle. Bitcoin or whatever succeeds.

0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:35.639
<v Speaker 1>It will be better understood when its price goes up

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:38.639
<v Speaker 1>at the same time as intrinsically valued investments go down.

0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 1>This is a core sticking point with many expert investors,

0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:46.520
<v Speaker 1>this lack of intrinsic value. You got over that, how

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:47.960
<v Speaker 1>did you get over that at a MP.

0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 2>As a long time investor and someone in the investment community,

0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:54.119
<v Speaker 2>it does worry me a little bit. It's it's an

0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 2>easy to value a property or a share or whatever

0:19:56.200 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 2>you because there's that that that rent that is delayed

0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:05.520
<v Speaker 2>physical rents, literally rents or dividends. But there's lots of

0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:09.840
<v Speaker 2>investments that we have that don't have that. Warren Buffett, Berkshire,

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.560
<v Speaker 2>Hathaway doesn't pay dividends. So there's lots of examples of

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.800
<v Speaker 2>investments out there that don't have paid dividends. You can say, well,

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:19.520
<v Speaker 2>don't have intrinsic value, so how can you possibly value them?

0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 2>So there are ways around it. Yes, it is a

0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.560
<v Speaker 2>sticking point, and I can understand why people have expressed

0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:27.520
<v Speaker 2>that concern, and I've written it down as a reason

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.760
<v Speaker 2>for skepticism in my own notes on this. But I

0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:32.880
<v Speaker 2>think there are rays around it, and you just need

0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:35.439
<v Speaker 2>to accept that there are other investments in your portfolio

0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:37.240
<v Speaker 2>where they're not paying dividends.

0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:39.679
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Okay, we'll take a short break and we'll be

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:46.160
<v Speaker 1>back in a moment. Now, San this is a great

0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:47.880
<v Speaker 1>time to have you on the show because it's the

0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:54.440
<v Speaker 1>last episode of the financial year, and we have talked

0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:59.000
<v Speaker 1>on and off over many years. I wonder has there

0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:02.040
<v Speaker 1>been a year it looks like super funds are coming

0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:05.240
<v Speaker 1>in with a return of around nine percent. Inflation in

0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>our society, in our economy has dropped nicely, the share

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:11.400
<v Speaker 1>market is looking like ten percent plus.

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.600
<v Speaker 3>Can you recall a year Maybe you just disagree with this.

0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.679
<v Speaker 1>Entire contention, but can you recall a year where the

0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:21.840
<v Speaker 1>results were so unconvincing? They're so good that they're unconvincing

0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 1>because I cannot see how they are.

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:27.639
<v Speaker 2>So I think there's been lots of views like that.

0:21:27.680 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 2>To be honest with you, the old line that chares

0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 2>climb a wall of worry, that there's so many things

0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:35.000
<v Speaker 2>to worry about, and yet the share market's done well,

0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:37.440
<v Speaker 2>we can't believe it. I think twenty seven en was

0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 2>an example of that that Trump talk over and shares

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 2>did pretty well. Twenty twenty was another fantastic one. We

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:45.720
<v Speaker 2>had a pandemic and the share market at one point

0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 2>there fell thirty percent I think thirty five percent. Global

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 2>Australian shares were down by and yet we had okay.

0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:54.920
<v Speaker 2>It turned out okay in the end, once investors look

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:56.560
<v Speaker 2>through it. And I think the same thing's happening this

0:21:56.600 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 2>time around. Put Trump aside, he's a lot of the

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 2>source of uncertain whether you like him or not, is irrelevance.

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:04.800
<v Speaker 2>So I might say he's tariffs. Ultimately he might be

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:06.359
<v Speaker 2>good for the US. I might say what he's done

0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East might be good for the global

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.359
<v Speaker 2>economy in the worlds. But the dust still has to

0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 2>settle on that. But by the same token, in a

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:17.200
<v Speaker 2>big picture sense, we've come into an environment where inflation

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.880
<v Speaker 2>was a problem. In twenty twenty two, we had inflation

0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:22.480
<v Speaker 2>in Australia over eight percent, in the US a nine

0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:25.359
<v Speaker 2>ten in Europe. We've got it down so eventually all

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 2>those countries have inflation somewhere around two to three percent,

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:31.480
<v Speaker 2>including in Australia, and so we've gone from a world

0:22:31.480 --> 0:22:35.200
<v Speaker 2>of high inflation fears of that interest rates would even

0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:37.639
<v Speaker 2>have to go higher. Now we've gone to a world

0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:41.280
<v Speaker 2>with lower inflation. And we've done that at environment where

0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:44.240
<v Speaker 2>we've managed to avoid a technical recession, if you like.

0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:46.560
<v Speaker 2>We've come close, and there's risk there. But even if

0:22:46.600 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 2>you look at Australia unemployment what four one four point

0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:51.959
<v Speaker 2>two percent still very low. Similar story in the US,

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 2>so that's why the share markets are celebrating. The environment

0:22:56.480 --> 0:22:58.719
<v Speaker 2>hasn't been so bad. And then, of course you overlay

0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:01.600
<v Speaker 2>Trump on that he caused constant nation with his tariffs

0:23:01.600 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 2>in April, but then he's backed off a little bit.

0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:06.960
<v Speaker 2>Some people say Taco Trump always chickens out. Maybe not.

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 2>I think that issue will come up again.

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:11.679
<v Speaker 1>What about the earnings. Maybe re earnings are better than

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:12.960
<v Speaker 1>we think of. Inflation's falling.

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.439
<v Speaker 2>Well, maybe that is the case. They've certainly surprised in

0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 2>the US coming to the last reporting season. For the

0:23:17.840 --> 0:23:21.080
<v Speaker 2>March quarter, the expectation was four percent earnings growth turned

0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:23.359
<v Speaker 2>out to be about ten or eleven percent earnings growth,

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:26.800
<v Speaker 2>and so US companies just kept surprising. On the upsides,

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:30.640
<v Speaker 2>Australian earnings have been negative, but there is an expectation

0:23:30.800 --> 0:23:33.920
<v Speaker 2>of some improvements. We are setting the Reserve Bank cut

0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:36.879
<v Speaker 2>interest rates in Australia. We've now got inflation at the

0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:40.160
<v Speaker 2>lower end of comparable countries. Remember all that nonsense last

0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:42.560
<v Speaker 2>year people were building out we've got an inflation problem

0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:44.919
<v Speaker 2>relative to everybody else. We haven't. When you look at

0:23:44.920 --> 0:23:47.240
<v Speaker 2>it on a graph, it's about the same, or we're

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:50.840
<v Speaker 2>at the low end which is good. So I think

0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:54.159
<v Speaker 2>share markets are seeing that. And when the share market

0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:56.879
<v Speaker 2>thinks of lower interest rates, it thinks that's more people

0:23:56.880 --> 0:23:59.080
<v Speaker 2>putting their money in shares because they're getting less on

0:23:59.160 --> 0:24:03.240
<v Speaker 2>bank deposits. The valuations on shares start to improve, and

0:24:03.280 --> 0:24:05.720
<v Speaker 2>so I can sort of understand why markets have gone up,

0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:08.560
<v Speaker 2>even though it's surprised. The strength of it has surprised me.

0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:11.000
<v Speaker 2>And I wouldn't have thought we would be doing this

0:24:11.080 --> 0:24:14.600
<v Speaker 2>well on Liberation Day, if that's what you want to

0:24:14.640 --> 0:24:16.800
<v Speaker 2>call it, Donald Trump's Liberation Dates.

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:19.480
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I know it was awfully hard, but here we go.

0:24:19.720 --> 0:24:21.159
<v Speaker 3>I have to ask you, how do you see the

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:22.160
<v Speaker 3>year ahead? Financially?

0:24:22.200 --> 0:24:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Year ahead, I'm at risk of getting surprised again because

0:24:25.359 --> 0:24:28.280
<v Speaker 2>I reckon returns will slow down. I would have thought

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:29.760
<v Speaker 2>they would have slowed down a year ago. I didn't

0:24:29.760 --> 0:24:31.840
<v Speaker 2>think they'd be this good. I thought they would be okay,

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:33.639
<v Speaker 2>But I was thinking, I think a year ago, if

0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:36.840
<v Speaker 2>you look at my report in July, I was looking

0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:39.200
<v Speaker 2>for something more six or seven percent now of super funds,

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 2>and now you're going to get what is probably around

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 2>nine I think chat West the other day financial year

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:45.840
<v Speaker 2>to date eight point five percent up to May. It

0:24:45.840 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 2>looks like Journe's turned out to be a reasonable month.

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:50.199
<v Speaker 2>Touch Wood we still got a few days ago, but

0:24:50.560 --> 0:24:53.959
<v Speaker 2>I reckon returns will slow down to around six seven percent.

0:24:54.280 --> 0:24:56.280
<v Speaker 2>The valuations are a little bit of a concern. The

0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 2>p's in the US where we around about twenty five

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:01.520
<v Speaker 2>times for IT earnings. In and Australia we were about

0:25:01.640 --> 0:25:04.879
<v Speaker 2>nineteen or twenty times for earnings. That's above longer term averages.

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:07.840
<v Speaker 2>Bond yields are still relatively high, so there's not a

0:25:07.880 --> 0:25:10.480
<v Speaker 2>great equity risk premium in there if you compare the

0:25:10.520 --> 0:25:13.400
<v Speaker 2>earnings yield implied by those pes to the bond yields.

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:16.760
<v Speaker 2>But by the same token, I think if we avoid

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 2>a recession, and I probably I think we probably will,

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:23.640
<v Speaker 2>then it turns out okay. So I think somewhere along

0:25:23.640 --> 0:25:25.920
<v Speaker 2>the way we'll get another bet of worries about tariffs.

0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:28.840
<v Speaker 2>Historically in the last twenty years, July is a good

0:25:28.880 --> 0:25:31.680
<v Speaker 2>month for shares, but we know that August and September

0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:35.240
<v Speaker 2>are often a bit rough seasonally, and I suspect that

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 2>that could be tariffs. The tariffs come back into the headlines,

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:41.640
<v Speaker 2>you could get more vulnerability or more volatility coming out

0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 2>of the Middle East, but you've got to be careful

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 2>about that one. The lesson from the events of the

0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 2>last few days that unless there's a disruption to oil supplies,

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 2>then eventually markets will just move on to something else.

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 2>And that's what's happened here. Even though I think the

0:25:56.600 --> 0:25:59.119
<v Speaker 2>risks were very high, but it all depended on what

0:25:59.160 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 2>Iran does. Run back down, but they probably concluded let's

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 2>live divide another day.

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:05.800
<v Speaker 3>Very content response.

0:26:06.000 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was a contained response, and they self interest

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 2>lay a role there. I think regime survivability was the key,

0:26:12.720 --> 0:26:15.680
<v Speaker 2>so that could come back as an issue and cause volatility,

0:26:15.760 --> 0:26:19.840
<v Speaker 2>But I think the broader picture is one of constrained

0:26:19.840 --> 0:26:23.240
<v Speaker 2>growth globally. We hear from the IMF and Well Bank

0:26:23.440 --> 0:26:25.399
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be somewhere like two to three percent growth,

0:26:25.400 --> 0:26:27.840
<v Speaker 2>but it's not recession. And if it's not recession, then

0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:31.240
<v Speaker 2>earnings can continue to grow or at least grow. Interest

0:26:31.320 --> 0:26:33.840
<v Speaker 2>rates probably continue to come down. We're going to see

0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:36.600
<v Speaker 2>I think four cuts in Australia, the next one in

0:26:36.680 --> 0:26:40.240
<v Speaker 2>July and then another three after that August, November, and February.

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:43.199
<v Speaker 2>That will help our market put money in the hands

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:46.399
<v Speaker 2>of people with a mortgage and those money will go

0:26:46.440 --> 0:26:48.000
<v Speaker 2>and spend that. And I know a lot of people hear

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 2>that and say, well, I'm a self fund of retire

0:26:50.000 --> 0:26:52.040
<v Speaker 2>read relying on money from bank interest. But the amount

0:26:52.080 --> 0:26:55.399
<v Speaker 2>of money in household dead is double, roughly double the

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:58.200
<v Speaker 2>value of people with bank deposits. The value of money

0:26:58.359 --> 0:27:01.440
<v Speaker 2>in bank deposits, so aims to those with the mortgage

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:04.200
<v Speaker 2>is actually swamps by two to one the losses.

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:07.000
<v Speaker 3>So it's twice I see what you mean, Yeah, twice

0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:07.479
<v Speaker 3>to speak.

0:27:07.680 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 2>And our family twenty five to forty five with a

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:13.400
<v Speaker 2>couple of kids is far more sensitive to changes their

0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 2>income than a fifty five sixty five year old person.

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:18.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to char I'm sixty, but I don't change

0:27:18.760 --> 0:27:22.240
<v Speaker 2>my spending that much given my income. But mortgage is

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:24.800
<v Speaker 2>under control. That sort of stuff. My mother goes on

0:27:24.840 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 2>the cruises and that doesn't change much with interest rates,

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:29.800
<v Speaker 2>But it does for younger.

0:27:29.560 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 1>Families because they're so funly chuned.

0:27:31.520 --> 0:27:33.440
<v Speaker 2>So there's so famly tuned. You get a slight rise

0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:35.360
<v Speaker 2>at interest rates, they got less money to spend. That's

0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:38.600
<v Speaker 2>bad for the economy. Cut interest rates, they suddenly get

0:27:38.600 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 2>relief and they could spend a little bit more they

0:27:40.800 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 2>won't go bond because spend a lot. But I think

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:45.960
<v Speaker 2>all that points to an okay environment. But as I

0:27:45.960 --> 0:27:48.440
<v Speaker 2>said at the start, the valuations are a little bit stretched.

0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:50.160
<v Speaker 2>That's going to constrain things a little bit. That's why

0:27:50.200 --> 0:27:52.639
<v Speaker 2>I say six seven percent return from super funds, not

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:55.320
<v Speaker 2>another year of nine or ten or something.

0:27:55.520 --> 0:27:56.720
<v Speaker 3>Okay, interesting logic.

0:27:56.840 --> 0:28:02.080
<v Speaker 1>So the temple, the fundamental GDP if you like economic temples, healthy,

0:28:02.280 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 1>but the evaluation, because valuations are stretched, that puts a limit.

0:28:06.359 --> 0:28:08.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they are a little bit of stretch, but there's

0:28:08.920 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 2>the problem with valuations. They're useful guides, but they're not

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:16.119
<v Speaker 2>very good to time markets with. And a lot of

0:28:16.119 --> 0:28:17.720
<v Speaker 2>people have been saying for the last few years now

0:28:17.720 --> 0:28:19.920
<v Speaker 2>the chairs is too expensive and blah blah blah, and

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.399
<v Speaker 2>they keep going higher. That's because your earnings come in

0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.199
<v Speaker 2>and they turn out okay, particularly in the US. But

0:28:25.359 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 2>valuation is very hard to time markets. So it's a

0:28:28.359 --> 0:28:31.040
<v Speaker 2>risk factor there. At least the market's vulnerable should something

0:28:31.080 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 2>go wrong. But as we saw in the Middle East,

0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:35.840
<v Speaker 2>that turned out not to be the event, and it

0:28:35.880 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 2>remains to be seen what happens with tariffs. But I

0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 2>reckon this is the big one with Trump. If you

0:28:40.880 --> 0:28:42.640
<v Speaker 2>think about the next financially, it takes us up to

0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 2>June next year. He's going to want to get his

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:47.880
<v Speaker 2>party doing well in the midterms. He doesn't want to

0:28:47.880 --> 0:28:50.400
<v Speaker 2>see a massive defeat for the Republicans because it will

0:28:50.400 --> 0:28:53.040
<v Speaker 2>look bad on him. So he's probably going to as

0:28:53.120 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 2>time goes by through the next financial year, which takes

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:58.120
<v Speaker 2>him in the run up to the November midterms in

0:28:58.160 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 2>the US, he's probably going to want to do things

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 2>a more market friendly. And that's why I think he's

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:04.840
<v Speaker 2>loaded his tariffs up front and sort of get some

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:06.760
<v Speaker 2>of the bad news out of the way early, and

0:29:06.800 --> 0:29:08.840
<v Speaker 2>then if he gets more friendly as we come up

0:29:08.880 --> 0:29:10.479
<v Speaker 2>to the midterms.

0:29:09.960 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Okay, we will see, we will see terrific. All right, Look,

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:15.240
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much. I have one last thing I

0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:17.520
<v Speaker 1>wanted to just in terms of questions of correspondence, and

0:29:17.560 --> 0:29:20.120
<v Speaker 1>we had a lot, and thank you everyone for the corresponding.

0:29:20.120 --> 0:29:20.880
<v Speaker 3>It was very thoughtful.

0:29:20.920 --> 0:29:23.000
<v Speaker 1>I thought on Crypto and as I say, I thought

0:29:23.000 --> 0:29:27.000
<v Speaker 1>it deserved a second twist, and having had if you

0:29:27.200 --> 0:29:28.960
<v Speaker 1>like the bare case on, I wanted to put the

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:31.280
<v Speaker 1>bookcase on. I think that would be very useful. Of Course,

0:29:31.320 --> 0:29:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I have crypto people on in the future for them

0:29:34.400 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 1>all in the past. But I wanted this debate if

0:29:36.400 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>you like to come from outside crypto per se in

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 1>conventional investment markets, which is I think the best way

0:29:44.160 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>to debate it. All right, terrific. One last thing I

0:29:46.880 --> 0:29:49.840
<v Speaker 1>wanted to just read for you. It's from Pete and

0:29:49.880 --> 0:29:53.000
<v Speaker 1>he says, I have my money puzzle bingo card in

0:29:53.040 --> 0:29:56.800
<v Speaker 1>front of me and it has only three things. Number One,

0:29:57.240 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 1>taxing upon realized gains and super funds is staft. Number Two,

0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 1>all the brokers say the Commonwealth Bank is overpriceding yet

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:08.160
<v Speaker 1>it hasn't fallen. Number Three the three million super tax

0:30:08.240 --> 0:30:09.600
<v Speaker 1>and super is not indexed.

0:30:09.880 --> 0:30:13.280
<v Speaker 3>Can you believe that? Do I win? Says Pete. Pete,

0:30:13.320 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 3>You're you're in the winner's enclosure. I think that's for sure.

0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:18.960
<v Speaker 3>Very keen alert.

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Listening there from Pete. Thank you Pete, and thank you

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:24.640
<v Speaker 1>everyone for listening. Keep the emails Rolling the money Puzzle

0:30:24.640 --> 0:30:27.360
<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot u. Shane Oliver, chief

0:30:27.360 --> 0:30:29.960
<v Speaker 1>economist at AMP, put you onto the gun there today

0:30:30.280 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 1>in two different ways. Thank you very much, really good,

0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>very clear, articulate response of course to all the questions,

0:30:36.200 --> 0:30:38.080
<v Speaker 1>which is what I would expect from you. Thanks a lot,

0:30:38.120 --> 0:30:39.040
<v Speaker 1>we'll have you on again.

0:30:39.240 --> 0:30:40.400
<v Speaker 2>Thanks Jans, take care,