1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,330 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,570 --> 00:00:10,379 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Parliament officially resumes today, but you'd be forgiven for 3 00:00:10,380 --> 00:00:12,900 Sean Aylmer: thinking it started a couple of weeks ago when Prime 4 00:00:12,900 --> 00:00:16,289 Sean Aylmer: Minister Anthony Albanese announced a backflip on the stage 3 5 00:00:16,289 --> 00:00:19,380 Sean Aylmer: tax cuts. It's the dominant issue as the pollies return 6 00:00:19,380 --> 00:00:22,110 Sean Aylmer: to Canberra with opposition leader Peter Dutton saying he won't 7 00:00:22,110 --> 00:00:24,720 Sean Aylmer: stand in the way of lower taxes. Tough one for 8 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Sean Aylmer: the opposition, they could easily attack the government over a 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,179 Sean Aylmer: broken election promise, accept the change in policy will see 10 00:00:30,179 --> 00:00:33,030 Sean Aylmer: about eight and nine taxpayers better off. Charles Croucher is 11 00:00:33,030 --> 00:00:35,969 Sean Aylmer: the chief political editor for 9News. Charles, welcome to Fear 12 00:00:35,969 --> 00:00:36,450 Sean Aylmer: and Greed. 13 00:00:36,779 --> 00:00:37,320 Charles Croucher: Sean, great to be here. 14 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:44,729 Sean Aylmer: A big year coming up. How has Anthony Albanese handled these first 15 00:00:44,729 --> 00:00:49,050 Sean Aylmer: few weeks with the changes or the proposed changes to 16 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:50,310 Sean Aylmer: the stage 3 tax cuts? 17 00:00:51,089 --> 00:00:53,129 Charles Croucher: Look, it's been a big surprise to start. This happened 18 00:00:53,129 --> 00:00:55,890 Charles Croucher: before Australia Day, which has usually, or has in the 19 00:00:55,890 --> 00:00:59,400 Charles Croucher: past, been almost the ceasefire that gets you through Christmas 20 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,309 Charles Croucher: and to Australia Day, as the country focuses on tennis 21 00:01:02,309 --> 00:01:05,789 Charles Croucher: and cricket and avoiding natural disasters over the past few 22 00:01:05,789 --> 00:01:08,729 Charles Croucher: years. This is the big change. And what the Prime 23 00:01:08,730 --> 00:01:12,029 Charles Croucher: Minister has done, as you mentioned, has picked out the 24 00:01:12,029 --> 00:01:14,670 Charles Croucher: vast majority to be better off. And he's also taken 25 00:01:14,670 --> 00:01:17,550 Charles Croucher: back some initiative that the government really lost in the 26 00:01:17,550 --> 00:01:21,959 Charles Croucher: latter half of 2023. That came through the failure of 27 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,620 Charles Croucher: the Voice referendum and then also some of the decisions 28 00:01:25,620 --> 00:01:28,590 Charles Croucher: from the High Court that set in spark a debate 29 00:01:28,590 --> 00:01:33,420 Charles Croucher: about immigration and law and order, typically strong topics for 30 00:01:33,420 --> 00:01:36,540 Charles Croucher: the opposition and particularly in the wheelhouse of Peter Dutton. 31 00:01:36,540 --> 00:01:39,690 Charles Croucher: So this is going back to basics. They'll say going 32 00:01:39,690 --> 00:01:42,389 Charles Croucher: back to Labor values, certainly putting a Labor lens on 33 00:01:42,389 --> 00:01:45,569 Charles Croucher: what was a coalition policy. And taking back the initiative 34 00:01:45,599 --> 00:01:48,239 Charles Croucher: when it comes to the political debate, and I think 35 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,730 Charles Croucher: they've done that pretty well. John Howard set the gold 36 00:01:50,730 --> 00:01:53,760 Charles Croucher: standard when it comes to performing a U- turn or 37 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,250 Charles Croucher: changing your mind. He went to an election with the 38 00:01:56,250 --> 00:01:59,460 Charles Croucher: GST. This isn't quite that, but the Prime Minister has 39 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:03,959 Charles Croucher: fronted up on this. He has wedged the opposition to 40 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,510 Charles Croucher: the point where I think you're right, standing in the 41 00:02:06,540 --> 00:02:09,660 Charles Croucher: way of people getting tax cuts is a very bold, 42 00:02:09,660 --> 00:02:13,169 Charles Croucher: brave, probably foolish place to be, and it's certainly, that's not 43 00:02:13,169 --> 00:02:15,780 Charles Croucher: something you suspect from Peter Dutton. And instead it will 44 00:02:15,780 --> 00:02:18,059 Charles Croucher: be the question of whether they actually back the changes 45 00:02:18,450 --> 00:02:22,169 Charles Croucher: or just don't oppose them, which are different things and 46 00:02:22,169 --> 00:02:24,119 Charles Croucher: come with it different risks. 47 00:02:24,538 --> 00:02:28,168 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so what do you think Dutton will do? Because 48 00:02:28,470 --> 00:02:30,450 Sean Aylmer: you just explained why it is tricky for them. He 49 00:02:30,450 --> 00:02:32,220 Sean Aylmer: doesn't want to be the person not giving tax cuts 50 00:02:32,220 --> 00:02:35,160 Sean Aylmer: to all these people. And does it take the wind 51 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,230 Sean Aylmer: out of his sails at this point or can he regather 52 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:38,849 Sean Aylmer: that momentum from last year? 53 00:02:39,540 --> 00:02:42,659 Charles Croucher: We can regather, but it is a different argument altogether. 54 00:02:42,660 --> 00:02:45,870 Charles Croucher: And what the argument will become about on the opposition's 55 00:02:45,870 --> 00:02:49,320 Charles Croucher: behalf, and I think they've done a moderate job of this 56 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,540 Charles Croucher: so far, is make it about the U- turn, make 57 00:02:51,540 --> 00:02:54,780 Charles Croucher: it about the lie. And if that's the case, how 58 00:02:54,780 --> 00:02:57,149 Charles Croucher: do you trust the Prime Minister moving forward? It's me 59 00:02:57,210 --> 00:03:01,710 Charles Croucher: quoting some opposition lines there. I guess the problem becomes 60 00:03:01,710 --> 00:03:06,210 Charles Croucher: that if you don't vote for the changes, then that's 61 00:03:06,210 --> 00:03:08,490 Charles Croucher: a government attack line that they didn't vote for you 62 00:03:08,490 --> 00:03:11,519 Charles Croucher: to get a tax cut, and so you can still 63 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,450 Charles Croucher: prosecute the process without actually prosecuting the policy itself. I 64 00:03:15,450 --> 00:03:18,840 Charles Croucher: think in terms of the policy, what it does for the 65 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,298 Charles Croucher: government and what it does for a lot of Australians, 66 00:03:21,300 --> 00:03:23,310 Charles Croucher: and certainly if you speak to backbenchers around here they'll 67 00:03:23,310 --> 00:03:26,520 Charles Croucher: start saying this, is it maps out the potential for 68 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:31,530 Charles Croucher: six to eight good months for economic news for those 69 00:03:31,530 --> 00:03:33,719 Charles Croucher: Australians that are hurting the most. Now there are so 70 00:03:33,719 --> 00:03:38,070 Charles Croucher: many Australians, every focus group that we do, that political 71 00:03:38,070 --> 00:03:40,440 Charles Croucher: parties do, that anyone does, puts cost of living number 72 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,560 Charles Croucher: one. So what the government will argue is that with 73 00:03:43,740 --> 00:03:46,830 Charles Croucher: real incomes now on the way up, I think that will be 74 00:03:46,830 --> 00:03:50,039 Charles Croucher: confirmed when we get the wage data that comes out 75 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,219 Charles Croucher: reasonably soon. What you'll see now is that things are 76 00:03:53,219 --> 00:03:56,250 Charles Croucher: going to get easier from here on. There is a 77 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,880 Charles Croucher: indexation of pension and some of the welfare rates in 78 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:01,770 Charles Croucher: March. We then have the budget in May, there'll be 79 00:04:01,770 --> 00:04:04,860 Charles Croucher: more cost of living measures there. Then you get potentially 80 00:04:04,860 --> 00:04:09,270 Charles Croucher: the first rate- cut, be it June, July, August, around 81 00:04:09,270 --> 00:04:12,390 Charles Croucher: that period. Then you get tax cuts in July. You 82 00:04:12,420 --> 00:04:15,360 Charles Croucher: also get a decision on the minimum wage in June 83 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,450 Charles Croucher: that comes in July. So Australians are going to start 84 00:04:18,450 --> 00:04:21,089 Charles Croucher: having more money in their pay packets each week or 85 00:04:21,089 --> 00:04:24,599 Charles Croucher: fortnight or month. And that, according to some of the 86 00:04:24,599 --> 00:04:27,960 Charles Croucher: Labor MPs around here, will lift spirits in the community. 87 00:04:28,709 --> 00:04:31,440 Charles Croucher: That's the message and the path that they're trying to 88 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,049 Charles Croucher: walk. For the opposition it is hard to stand in 89 00:04:34,050 --> 00:04:36,570 Charles Croucher: the way of that when it has been such a 90 00:04:36,570 --> 00:04:39,480 Charles Croucher: dominant feature and is the dominant feature. I guess the 91 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,328 Charles Croucher: other option is, does the opposition go further? Do they 92 00:04:42,330 --> 00:04:45,870 Charles Croucher: say, and politically you could do this, do they say, " We're going 93 00:04:45,870 --> 00:04:50,040 Charles Croucher: to keep the lower end tax cuts and raise that top 94 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,430 Charles Croucher: tax bracket to 200, 000, or do we eliminate the 37 95 00:04:53,430 --> 00:04:55,440 Charles Croucher: from a higher mark," or they could bring it on 96 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,359 Charles Croucher: earlier, or there are a couple of options that run 97 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,178 Charles Croucher: around that could see more money in people's pockets. Of 98 00:05:00,178 --> 00:05:02,940 Charles Croucher: course that all means less money in the budget. And 99 00:05:02,940 --> 00:05:05,699 Charles Croucher: while that budget situation's pretty good year- on- year, in 100 00:05:05,699 --> 00:05:07,680 Charles Croucher: the long run it's still in a really bad spot. 101 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,460 Charles Croucher: So that's the difficulty now. And again, it's a fight 102 00:05:11,460 --> 00:05:13,800 Charles Croucher: being fought on Labor's terms now. It was on the 103 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:15,269 Charles Croucher: opposition's at the end of last year. 104 00:05:16,260 --> 00:05:18,750 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so beyond taxes, what are we going to hear a 105 00:05:18,750 --> 00:05:22,560 Sean Aylmer: lot about this year? I presume IR legislation part two. 106 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:24,479 Sean Aylmer: We'll hear a lot about that. What else? 107 00:05:25,109 --> 00:05:27,270 Charles Croucher: Yeah, that's a really interesting one, in particular that " right 108 00:05:27,330 --> 00:05:30,900 Charles Croucher: to switch off" is something that the Greens are really 109 00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:33,630 Charles Croucher: heavily for, some of the crossbenchers have been trying for 110 00:05:33,630 --> 00:05:36,270 Charles Croucher: as well. And it's so fundamental to the way so 111 00:05:36,270 --> 00:05:39,450 Charles Croucher: many Australians work is this, if you clock off, does 112 00:05:39,450 --> 00:05:42,719 Charles Croucher: that mean you're off the clock effectively and that you 113 00:05:42,719 --> 00:05:46,289 Charles Croucher: won't answer emails or answer calls, or at what stage 114 00:05:46,290 --> 00:05:49,650 Charles Croucher: does being on- call become being paid on- call? These 115 00:05:49,650 --> 00:05:51,988 Charles Croucher: are pivotal things to the way Australians work, and because 116 00:05:51,990 --> 00:05:54,270 Charles Croucher: of our phones, it's something that has changed and warped. 117 00:05:54,270 --> 00:05:58,109 Charles Croucher: So how legislation will keep up with technology is going 118 00:05:58,109 --> 00:05:59,909 Charles Croucher: to be a big one. Look, we're still waiting for 119 00:05:59,910 --> 00:06:03,360 Charles Croucher: trade normalization with China. That is huge for Australia in 120 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,870 Charles Croucher: terms of the budget bottom line. And then we have 121 00:06:06,870 --> 00:06:09,750 Charles Croucher: this issue, cost of living will remain huge. Housing is 122 00:06:09,750 --> 00:06:11,610 Charles Croucher: still the number one contributor to the cost of living, 123 00:06:11,610 --> 00:06:13,589 Charles Croucher: the number one issue in Australia, so that becomes big. 124 00:06:13,950 --> 00:06:17,159 Charles Croucher: But we then have these series of elections around the 125 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,729 Charles Croucher: world that are going to have a major impact on 126 00:06:20,730 --> 00:06:22,500 Charles Croucher: the way Australia runs and it's kind of out of 127 00:06:22,500 --> 00:06:26,039 Charles Croucher: our hands. There's an election in Indonesia in the next 128 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,040 Charles Croucher: two weeks. There is an election in India this year. 129 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,768 Charles Croucher: There's an election in the European Union. There's likely an 130 00:06:31,770 --> 00:06:34,229 Charles Croucher: election in the UK, and then of course there's the 131 00:06:34,230 --> 00:06:36,720 Charles Croucher: big one in November in the United States that could change 132 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,450 Charles Croucher: everything again. So look, this is going to be a 133 00:06:39,450 --> 00:06:45,059 Charles Croucher: lot of domestic fixes on Australia's government's front, cost of 134 00:06:45,059 --> 00:06:48,330 Charles Croucher: living, housing, real bread and butter issues that are so 135 00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:52,979 Charles Croucher: important to every Australian. But then always fizzling away, are 136 00:06:52,980 --> 00:06:56,490 Charles Croucher: always there in the peripheral with these international elections, at 137 00:06:56,490 --> 00:07:00,779 Charles Croucher: a time when liberal democracies are a minority sport and 138 00:07:01,380 --> 00:07:05,159 Charles Croucher: things are getting harder for democracies, not easier, and it's 139 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,410 Charles Croucher: going to be an awfully big test of all of that 140 00:07:07,410 --> 00:07:07,860 Charles Croucher: this year. 141 00:07:08,490 --> 00:07:10,229 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Charles, we'll be back in a minute. 142 00:07:10,229 --> 00:07:19,590 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Charles Croucher, Chief Political Editor for 143 00:07:19,590 --> 00:07:25,380 Sean Aylmer: 9News. What about polls more local? Cook is the obvious 144 00:07:25,380 --> 00:07:27,839 Sean Aylmer: one with Scott Morrison's old seat in the southern suburbs 145 00:07:27,839 --> 00:07:30,900 Sean Aylmer: of Sydney. I would imagine that the coalition would be 146 00:07:30,900 --> 00:07:34,020 Sean Aylmer: very confident of retaining that, but still, it'll just be 147 00:07:34,020 --> 00:07:35,610 Sean Aylmer: interesting to see what the ... I mean, I'm not even 148 00:07:35,610 --> 00:07:37,410 Sean Aylmer: sure when it is, it must be in coming months, 149 00:07:37,530 --> 00:07:40,200 Sean Aylmer: I'm not sure. It'd be interesting to see what the 150 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:40,949 Sean Aylmer: voters are saying. 151 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:43,980 Charles Croucher: They haven't announced a date yet because Scott Morrison hasn't 152 00:07:43,980 --> 00:07:47,040 Charles Croucher: formally resigned yet, he's just made his intentions clear. So 153 00:07:47,279 --> 00:07:50,700 Charles Croucher: that will happen I suspect March, April. That will be 154 00:07:50,700 --> 00:07:53,880 Charles Croucher: a big test. Obviously Dunkley in Melbourne as well. Peta 155 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:58,050 Charles Croucher: Murphy, her old seat. That's a really important one to 156 00:07:58,050 --> 00:08:01,770 Charles Croucher: Labor backbenches, not just because they almost to a person 157 00:08:01,770 --> 00:08:04,769 Charles Croucher: loved Peta, but because it is on a margin that 158 00:08:04,770 --> 00:08:08,250 Charles Croucher: would, if the Liberal Party were to win, that would 159 00:08:08,250 --> 00:08:12,630 Charles Croucher: really worry a lot of Labor MPs. But on the same note, if 160 00:08:12,630 --> 00:08:17,370 Charles Croucher: they're looking at results of holding the line in Dunkley, 161 00:08:17,969 --> 00:08:20,580 Charles Croucher: perhaps limiting it to one or 2% swing against them, 162 00:08:20,910 --> 00:08:23,219 Charles Croucher: if they do better than expected in Cook, then there'll 163 00:08:23,219 --> 00:08:26,220 Charles Croucher: be some. And this is a minority at the moment, 164 00:08:26,220 --> 00:08:28,080 Charles Croucher: but there will be some that will go through that 165 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,320 Charles Croucher: path I laid out before and think that if things 166 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:36,570 Charles Croucher: are looking pretty good around October, November, December, and there 167 00:08:36,570 --> 00:08:39,179 Charles Croucher: is a chance they can extend their majority in the 168 00:08:39,179 --> 00:08:42,209 Charles Croucher: House of Reps, then there may be the temptation to 169 00:08:42,510 --> 00:08:44,848 Charles Croucher: call an election at the end of the year. This 170 00:08:44,850 --> 00:08:47,550 Charles Croucher: Queensland election makes it difficult, obviously the US will take 171 00:08:47,550 --> 00:08:50,098 Charles Croucher: up a lot of the oxygen. But heading into summer 172 00:08:50,099 --> 00:08:52,199 Charles Croucher: was always a really popular time for an election with 173 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,529 Charles Croucher: John Howard. And there are lots of people inside the 174 00:08:55,530 --> 00:08:58,559 Charles Croucher: current government, look at the way the politics more than 175 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,960 Charles Croucher: the policy of John Howard and think they did it 176 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,410 Charles Croucher: pretty well. So it's still a minority. It'll still be 177 00:09:04,410 --> 00:09:07,228 Charles Croucher: largely dependent on the way that things are looking at 178 00:09:07,230 --> 00:09:10,889 Charles Croucher: that time. But we're due an election by I think 179 00:09:10,889 --> 00:09:14,040 Charles Croucher: May next year, so what's five or six months between 180 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,920 Charles Croucher: friends, if you can avoid that summer where people switch 181 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,018 Charles Croucher: off, and a summer where people could lose jobs, or 182 00:09:19,020 --> 00:09:21,720 Charles Croucher: a summer where things could go wrong. If they've got 183 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,848 Charles Croucher: the opportunity, then I suspect there'll be some that'll want 184 00:09:23,850 --> 00:09:25,708 Charles Croucher: them to take it as well. So we may get 185 00:09:25,710 --> 00:09:27,780 Charles Croucher: more than just polls that we see in the newspapers, 186 00:09:27,780 --> 00:09:28,530 Charles Croucher: we may get the real one. 187 00:09:29,460 --> 00:09:31,618 Sean Aylmer: Charles, I can't let you go without asking about the 188 00:09:31,620 --> 00:09:34,380 Sean Aylmer: US election, because I know you've covered US elections previously. 189 00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:40,290 Sean Aylmer: Pretty phenomenal just to watch US politics play out on 190 00:09:40,290 --> 00:09:42,360 Sean Aylmer: both sides of politics as well because we talk a 191 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,110 Sean Aylmer: lot about Trump, but an 81- year- old Biden coming 192 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,869 Sean Aylmer: up for reelection, it's going to be a great year, isn't, 193 00:09:48,870 --> 00:09:49,890 Sean Aylmer: it's going to be fun watching. 194 00:09:50,460 --> 00:09:54,059 Charles Croucher: It's going to be remarkable. And it's hard to search 195 00:09:54,059 --> 00:09:57,960 Charles Croucher: for a precedent in anything involving Donald Trump. We know 196 00:09:57,960 --> 00:09:59,700 Charles Croucher: what he's trying to do now, it's only been done 197 00:09:59,700 --> 00:10:02,309 Charles Croucher: once before by Grover Cleveland. That was well over a 198 00:10:02,309 --> 00:10:04,860 Charles Croucher: century ago. We know what he's trying to do in 199 00:10:04,860 --> 00:10:07,049 Charles Croucher: terms of the legal side of things, he's also going 200 00:10:07,049 --> 00:10:10,199 Charles Croucher: to be unprecedented. He's going to spend as much time 201 00:10:10,500 --> 00:10:14,610 Charles Croucher: in courtrooms almost as on the campaign, and he is turning 202 00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:16,950 Charles Croucher: the courtroom into his campaign trail. 203 00:10:17,010 --> 00:10:17,101 Sean Aylmer: Good media. 204 00:10:17,101 --> 00:10:20,429 Charles Croucher: Yeah, yeah, absolutely is. Everyone's going to watch. The question 205 00:10:20,429 --> 00:10:23,070 Charles Croucher: I wonder as I watch the primaries play out, is 206 00:10:24,210 --> 00:10:28,499 Charles Croucher: who is the voter that perhaps voted for Barack Obama 207 00:10:28,500 --> 00:10:32,910 Charles Croucher: in 2012, swung to Donald Trump in 2016, then said, " 208 00:10:32,910 --> 00:10:35,040 Charles Croucher: Nope, I've had enough in 2020," and went back to 209 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,490 Charles Croucher: Joe Biden. Who is the voter that then four years 210 00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:40,320 Charles Croucher: later goes, " Actually, you know what, I'm back to Trump 211 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,880 Charles Croucher: again." That swing voter in places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. 212 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,879 Charles Croucher: I just don't know if there is those old members 213 00:10:47,879 --> 00:10:50,790 Charles Croucher: of what was Hillary's Blue wall that Donald Trump crushed 214 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,850 Charles Croucher: in that suburban area, who is that voter that then 215 00:10:53,850 --> 00:10:57,089 Charles Croucher: swings back to the Republicans this time around? The former 216 00:10:57,090 --> 00:11:01,259 Charles Croucher: President, President Trump's position has been so dominant in the 217 00:11:01,259 --> 00:11:07,260 Charles Croucher: Republican Party, I wonder at what expense to independence, particularly 218 00:11:07,410 --> 00:11:10,860 Charles Croucher: suburban women that were so vital four years ago. And 219 00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:12,900 Charles Croucher: of course in the subsequent four years, we've had the 220 00:11:12,900 --> 00:11:16,050 Charles Croucher: High Court intervene with the Dobbs decision on abortion, which 221 00:11:16,050 --> 00:11:19,770 Charles Croucher: has really been the dominant feature of every subsequent election. 222 00:11:20,580 --> 00:11:21,990 Charles Croucher: I think we're going to see a lot of money 223 00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:25,980 Charles Croucher: spent, a lot of focus on the race that's coming. 224 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,740 Charles Croucher: Anyone who gives you a prediction now is probably kidding 225 00:11:28,740 --> 00:11:32,400 Charles Croucher: themselves because things change so rapidly in the United States 226 00:11:32,429 --> 00:11:35,639 Charles Croucher: day to day, let alone eight months out. But it 227 00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:40,200 Charles Croucher: will be those same Rust Belt states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 228 00:11:40,469 --> 00:11:44,970 Charles Croucher: throw in Arizona, maybe Nevada, maybe Georgia. It's still the 229 00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:49,020 Charles Croucher: same six, it's still the same fight, and it's going to be great to 230 00:11:49,020 --> 00:11:52,529 Charles Croucher: watch. But I think Democrats will look almost at the 231 00:11:52,530 --> 00:11:55,349 Charles Croucher: same path we spoke about with the Labor government here. 232 00:11:55,349 --> 00:11:56,969 Charles Croucher: They're about eight months ahead of us when it comes 233 00:11:56,969 --> 00:12:00,600 Charles Croucher: to ... Inflation is down, wages are up, unemployment is still 234 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,600 Charles Croucher: good. We assume the Fed will start cutting rates soon. 235 00:12:03,630 --> 00:12:06,600 Charles Croucher: They will hope that that good economic news we've seen 236 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,969 Charles Croucher: for two or three months will start filtering through and 237 00:12:08,970 --> 00:12:11,849 Charles Croucher: people will feel it. There's no good everyone talking about 238 00:12:11,849 --> 00:12:14,309 Charles Croucher: it if you're not feeling it, the Democrats will hope 239 00:12:14,309 --> 00:12:16,889 Charles Croucher: that people will start feeling it and that'll be enough 240 00:12:16,889 --> 00:12:21,360 Charles Croucher: to keep them on President Biden's side, despite the obvious 241 00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:26,189 Charles Croucher: challenges for the Biden campaign. Mike Murphy, who ran George 242 00:12:26,250 --> 00:12:30,088 Charles Croucher: W. Bush's campaign, was involved with John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger's 243 00:12:30,090 --> 00:12:33,598 Charles Croucher: campaign in California, he described it perfectly. He said Joe 244 00:12:33,599 --> 00:12:36,450 Charles Croucher: Biden's age at the moment is like him having antlers, 245 00:12:36,539 --> 00:12:39,360 Charles Croucher: in that no matter what happens, how good the policy 246 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,228 Charles Croucher: is, how successful the speech or the legislation is, he's 247 00:12:43,230 --> 00:12:46,050 Charles Croucher: still the guy with antlers and you can't get past 248 00:12:46,050 --> 00:12:49,530 Charles Croucher: that. So the challenge is, will enough voters who are questioning the 249 00:12:49,530 --> 00:12:52,289 Charles Croucher: guy with antlers be able to come in, maybe hold 250 00:12:52,289 --> 00:12:54,029 Charles Croucher: their nose and close their eyes and vote for the 251 00:12:54,029 --> 00:12:55,320 Charles Croucher: Democrat again. We wait and see. 252 00:12:55,830 --> 00:12:58,468 Sean Aylmer: It's going to be a fun year, locally and internationally. Charles, thank 253 00:12:58,470 --> 00:12:59,670 Sean Aylmer: you for talking to Fear and Greed. 254 00:13:00,150 --> 00:13:00,600 Charles Croucher: Anytime. 255 00:13:01,380 --> 00:13:04,319 Sean Aylmer: That's Charles Croucher, Chief Political Editor for 9News. This is 256 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,900 Sean Aylmer: The Fear and Greed daily interview. Join us every morning 257 00:13:06,900 --> 00:13:09,420 Sean Aylmer: for the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's most 258 00:13:09,420 --> 00:13:12,390 Sean Aylmer: popular business podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer, enjoy your day.