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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Federal Liberals and Nationals in talks to reform the

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Speaker 1: Coalition just as Parliament resumes for the year. Competition in

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Speaker 1: home lending heats up just as interest rates are set

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Speaker 1: to rise. And Milania, the documentary about the First Lady

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Speaker 1: Milania Trump, fails to set the box office a light. Plus,

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Speaker 1: the boss of Corporate Travel Management resigns five months after

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Speaker 1: the company said it can't sign off its annual accounts,

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Speaker 1: and the rest of the world pushes to follow Australia's

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Speaker 1: social media band for kids. It is Tuesday, the third

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Speaker 1: of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael. Now Michael, as you know, I'm coming

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Speaker 2: remotely at the moment. In the background, here's a rooster.

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Speaker 1: It's very appropriate awake, awake well.

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Speaker 2: Before us, which is saying something. So I apologize to

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Speaker 2: the listeners. I can't really do anything like go out

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Speaker 2: and till the rooster to be quiet, so we're just

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Speaker 2: gonna have to put up with it.

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Speaker 1: Yes, no, it makes perfect sense. It's an early morning thing.

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Speaker 1: It feels it's like we've added a soundtrack to it,

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Speaker 1: Sean the main story this morning. The federal coalition parties

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Speaker 1: were last night working hard to mend fences and again

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Speaker 1: joined forces ahead of today's parliamentary session. And of course

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Speaker 1: as one nation support in the electorate grows, which would

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Speaker 1: be something that would be front of mind for them absolutely.

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Speaker 2: Liberal leader Sais and Lee and National's leader David Little

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Speaker 2: Proud worth holding peace talks last night aimed at reuniting

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Speaker 2: the two parties despite clear tensions between the two of

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Speaker 2: them and internal divisions within each party. Two weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: Little Proud said there would be no reunification if Lee

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Speaker 2: kept her job. Now, at least in the short term.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't appear that Lee's going anywhere, Michael, who knows.

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Speaker 1: These things change day by day to day.

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Speaker 2: Thing, yes now, but for the next few days it

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Speaker 2: doesn't look like it's going to happen now. Lee's given

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Speaker 2: the Nats one week to reunite before the split becomes permanent.

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Speaker 2: At that point she will hand out the different shadow

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Speaker 2: ministries to Libs. National Party MP Darren Chester yesterday moved

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Speaker 2: to motion at the party room wanting to reunite with

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Speaker 2: the Liberals. The Gnats are due to meet today to

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Speaker 2: consider what went on last night between Lee and Little Proud.

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Speaker 2: There is no doubt that the bulk of the Nats

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Speaker 2: actually want to reform the coalition. I think as we

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Speaker 2: saw with the polling over the last few days and

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Speaker 2: the rise of One Nation, both the Libs and the

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Speaker 2: Nationals realized they needed to work together. As expected, yesterday

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Speaker 2: there was a leadership spill against Little Proud. He kept

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Speaker 2: that job. All this, of course comes as former NATS

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Speaker 2: and now One Nation recruit Barnaby Joyce said another defection

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Speaker 2: from the Nats to One Nation is imminent. The key

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Speaker 2: suspects to defect, Colin Boyce and Lou O'Brien, have ruled

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Speaker 2: themselves out. Another potential defector is former South Australian Liberals

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Speaker 2: Senator Cory Bernardi, very high profile. I'm not in politics

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Speaker 2: at the moment. Another suggestion Northern Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles,

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Speaker 2: either of those may end up with One Nation. We'll

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Speaker 2: wait and see on that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I did see Shadow Energy Minister Dan Tee and

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Speaker 1: talking yesterday and basically saying just acknowledging the fact that

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Speaker 1: I think the quote was that it's fair to say

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Speaker 1: the last ten days or so I have not been

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Speaker 1: our finest hour. And there's issues confronting the Australian people

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Speaker 1: and that's what we need to be focusing on.

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Speaker 2: I mean Winston Churchill, ye fastardizing a great Winston Churchill quote.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And so it's just like there is an acknowledgment

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Speaker 1: right clearly within the coalition that this is not what

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Speaker 1: is expected of them, that it is not what people

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Speaker 1: have elected them for to just be bogged down in infighting.

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Speaker 1: And while all of this is going on, you've got

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi, who must be loving life

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Speaker 1: right now because there is no effective opposition, is cruising

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Speaker 1: into a new parliamentary year ahead in the polls, majority

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Speaker 1: in the House of Raps, a strong position in the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Life is good.

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Speaker 2: Yes, maybe Labour's greatest threat is complacency because there's still

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Speaker 2: plenty to do. The Government's anti gun laws of past

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Speaker 2: federal parliament, those state parliaments need to do their part

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Speaker 2: and that so I think we're going to hear a

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Speaker 2: lot about that in the next few weeks. Of course,

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Speaker 2: there was the original legislation that the Parliament came back

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Speaker 2: to past a couple of weeks ago. The original legislation

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Speaker 2: had of revealification clauses in along with hate speech and

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Speaker 2: anti gun so the racial valification clauses are still running around.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the government will con see that's too hard an issue.

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Speaker 2: The next few months likely to focus on the state

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Speaker 2: of the economy, interest rates, government spending, budget deficits, cost

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Speaker 2: of living. I mean, the house and crisis is still

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Speaker 2: with us energy transition. I'm sure that'll be front and center,

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Speaker 2: the growth of AI, the social media byan Politics changes

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Speaker 2: day to day, and this is very courageous for me

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Speaker 2: to say this, Michael, but my prediction is economic management

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Speaker 2: in the area where the coalition normally does pretty well,

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Speaker 2: we'll get a big run for the next couple of months.

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Speaker 1: I suspect you're right, though it is hard to take

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Speaker 1: you seriously with a rooster constantly crowing in the background. Apologize, No,

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Speaker 1: that's all right, that's all right. I've just been acknowledged.

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Speaker 1: I will not mention it again. It was a rough

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Speaker 1: day yesterday, Sean for the miners, especially gold and silver stocks.

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Speaker 1: The precious metal has been both of them have been

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Speaker 1: sold down. You have to say ferociously in recent days.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and it continues. Yesterday, spot gold film more than

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Speaker 2: six percent after the weekends ten percent dropped. Silver was

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Speaker 2: down twelve percent at one point yesterday after the twenty

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Speaker 2: seven per cent drop on the weekend. Basically, the challenge

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Speaker 2: for investors is the reversal like a return to normal

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Speaker 2: because remember gold and silver sword over the past two months.

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Speaker 2: Or is it just a hiccup and the rise of

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Speaker 2: the precious metals will continue? Not an easy question to answer,

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Speaker 2: that one not surprising the miners. Did the boss lie

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Speaker 2: with the SMPA six two hundred closing down one percent

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Speaker 2: to eight thousand, seven hundred and seventy nine points. Biggest

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Speaker 2: drops from the miners Newmont, Evolution of mining. I think

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Speaker 2: Newmont was down like seven or eight percent. Crazy evolution

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Speaker 2: mining or a band bill Gold Emerald Resources one stop

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Speaker 2: to do pretty well? Yes, it was Night Entertainment. After

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Speaker 2: Friday's announcement. It had offloaded its radio stations getting into

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Speaker 2: outdoor advertising. Among the last CAP's, BHP closed down more

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Speaker 2: than two percent. Come off Back was up more than

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Speaker 2: one percent. Meeting Michael come Off Bank is now once

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Speaker 2: again bigger than BHP. I'm thinking This is kind of

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Speaker 2: like the what's the guy's alcraz the tennis player, you're

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Speaker 2: the man that knows it. Yeah, it's kind of BHP CBA,

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Speaker 2: it's alcraz center.

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Speaker 1: Oh that is a great analogy. That is that is

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Speaker 1: absolutely perfect, and I mean it certainly helped that BHP

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Speaker 1: dipped as Comonwealth Bank Rose and away they go.

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Speaker 2: And I'm actually going to request something from you, Michael

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Speaker 2: for our Fear and Greed listeners.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, yes, go on.

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Speaker 2: So Michael turned forty on the weekend. He posted on

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Speaker 2: his personal account one of the truly great photos for

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Speaker 2: a forty year old of himself and Shan Selling braiding

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Speaker 2: with a tennis tennis racket birthday cake, both dressed up

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Speaker 2: like I mean Steffi Graff here was.

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Speaker 1: The fellow he married, Andrea Agassy.

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Speaker 2: Andrea Agacy got.

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Speaker 1: Marginally more hair than than Andreasy at the moment.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you two look that way. I think you

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Speaker 2: should post it on Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you know I'll put it on the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Instagram, shall I? So head along to go jump

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Speaker 1: on to Instagram. Had to look for Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: and check it out and see if I do have

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Speaker 1: more hair than Andrea Agassy. Okay, slight aside there back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business

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Speaker 1: news Sean. This afternoon we find out if there will

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Speaker 1: be an interest rate increase from the Reserve Bank, and

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Speaker 1: it is likely, though there is some good news for

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Speaker 1: mortgage holders.

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Speaker 2: Competition's heating up. So mcquarry has jumped into that market.

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Speaker 2: It grew its one hundred and sixty five billion dollars

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Speaker 2: mortgage book by two point five percent in December. That's

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Speaker 2: really fast, about three point three times the average of

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Speaker 2: all the other banks. What's interesting, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: are actually growing their lane books by more than the

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Speaker 2: system average. National Australia Bank and AINZ are falling back.

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Speaker 2: What all this means is that there's some really hot

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Speaker 2: competition thanks to Macquarie, primarily in the mortgage market. Great

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Speaker 2: news for mortgage the people with mortgages, because of course

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Speaker 2: more competition means better deirls. That could all come a

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Speaker 2: cropper if the Reserve Bank misinterest rates this afternoon. But

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Speaker 2: you know it's good to see competition in the market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it certainly is. The Australian job ads Sean

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Speaker 1: recorded their strongest monthly rise in almost three years last month.

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Speaker 1: And it's just just more proof, right of the strength

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Speaker 1: that is in the labor market that we keep talking about.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the ain Z Indeed, Australian job ads rose a

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Speaker 2: very solid four point four percent month on month in January.

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Speaker 2: It was a bit of a dip in December, but

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Speaker 2: still four point four percent is strong. Despite the rebound,

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Speaker 2: job ads remained about three percent lower than a year ago,

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Speaker 2: but the way above the kind of the twenty ten

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Speaker 2: to nineteen average. And Z economist Aaron Luck said the

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Speaker 2: January increase was the largest monthly gain in almost four years,

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Speaker 2: Partially unwey on the easing scene through the second half

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five. The Reserve Bank's been telling us

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Speaker 2: that the job market remains tight and the forward indicators

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Speaker 2: suggested not sure whether that's true. Well, these numbers and

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Speaker 2: is it's only one month's numbers, certainly suggests that there's

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Speaker 2: still a bit of tightness in the labor market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I sounded hesitant there a moment ago, Sean because

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Speaker 1: I was thinking ahead to this story that we're doing,

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Speaker 1: which has to be one of It's just such a

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Speaker 1: curious situation, the whole situation with Corporate Travel Management. The

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Speaker 1: boss of Corporate Travel Management has he's quit the business. Now.

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Speaker 1: This company's been in a trading halt for five months

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Speaker 1: because of what was initially called some quote minor accounting issues.

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Speaker 1: Now the boss has gone, and that in itself has

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Speaker 1: enraged investors because he's leaving with a six month consulting deal.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so, Jamie Ferris resigned yesterday, just a couple of

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Speaker 2: months after the company revealed it was looking at about

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Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty million dollars invoices to customers, including

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Speaker 2: to the UK government. They're the minor accounting issues one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty million dollars the company before Christmas sact

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Speaker 2: is chief executive for Europe and the UK over this.

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Speaker 2: Now Ferris has gone. What really has upset investors is

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Speaker 2: this consulting agreement because it will allow the board and

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Speaker 2: management team to use Ferris's knowledge if and when necessary.

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Speaker 2: So investors saying, hold on, if he's going on the

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Speaker 2: back of this, why is still keeping him on the

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Speaker 2: book books. Corporate Trouble Management's twenty twenty five financial year

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Speaker 2: accounts still haven't been signed off and the company's been

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Speaker 2: in a trading hall since August. Yesterday, there was no

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Speaker 2: indication I've had the investigation in the company is charging

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Speaker 2: in the UK and Europe was going when the accounts

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Speaker 2: will be signed off? A lot of people with a

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Speaker 2: lot of money in that company who are very upset

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Speaker 2: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, asking an awful lot of them. A lot

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Speaker 1: of patients for one thing.

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Speaker 2: A lot of patients.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a too very long time. Yeah. Grained handle

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Speaker 1: a Grain Corp. Yesterday, sean share price tumbled thirteen percent.

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Speaker 1: That said underlying earnings could have while profit could drop

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Speaker 1: as much as seventy five percent for the last half year.

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Speaker 2: So this is a cool little story. I mean maybe

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Speaker 2: not if you're a Grain Corp shareholder. It was the

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Speaker 2: third down grade in four months and basically reflects a

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Speaker 2: glut of grain on the global market. But what's happening.

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Speaker 2: Local farmers, realizing that prices they'll receive will disappoint, are

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Speaker 2: holding on to their supply or using them as feed lot.

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Speaker 2: Grain Corp just hasn't got much to sell. So Grain

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Speaker 2: Corp makes most of its money connecting around ten thousand

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Speaker 2: growers in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland to domestic

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Speaker 2: and oshwaw buyers. If the growers aren't selling grain, which

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Speaker 2: is what's happening because of the price global price of grain,

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Speaker 2: it actually doesn't matter that over all production levels are

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Speaker 2: above average. GRAINCOURP also operates in oil, seed crushing, handling,

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Speaker 2: woodchips and fertilizers and animal nutrition, but grain dominates and

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Speaker 2: it's the actions of farmers, which GRAINCOURP can't do much about,

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Speaker 2: that's causing this down These downgrades.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turn into international news now sean a growing number

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Speaker 1: of countries around the world are looking at banning social

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Speaker 1: media accounts, following Australia's lead from the end of last year.

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Speaker 1: We are trend setters.

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Speaker 2: Trend setters. One of the latest supporters of a ban

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Speaker 2: is France, with President Emmanuel mccrin saying he's aiming to

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Speaker 2: get mobile phones and scrolling out of high schools by September.

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Speaker 2: The British government has also said it's considering banning social

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Speaker 2: media for under sixteen year olds. Egypt's parliament is looking

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Speaker 2: into a similar band Now social media has a few

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Speaker 2: headaches apart from the bands. So for example, last week

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Speaker 2: in Los Angeles, Jurish selection began for a landmark civil

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Speaker 2: trial brought by parents who accused Meta, TikTok and New

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Speaker 2: of causing children to develop social media addiction and mental

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Speaker 2: health issues. It's estimated about three thousand plus lawsuits in

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Speaker 2: California alone against the media giants. With that as a backdrop,

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Speaker 2: governments probably hoping that the social media groups will feel

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Speaker 2: pressure to do something about kids on social media and

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Speaker 2: want to follow the Australian band.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and now we've got a few months already under

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Speaker 1: our belts of seeing how it works. And obviously there

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Speaker 1: will be more evidence as it rolls out. But everyone

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Speaker 1: in the world is watching us quite closely. Now the

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Speaker 1: Millennia Trump documentary, which is have you seen it? No?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: Have you no?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: Okay, So we're not talking about the content so much,

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Speaker 1: just about the stats, okay, Because the documentary is called

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Speaker 1: Millennia and a debut on the weekend with a better

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Speaker 1: than expected seven million US dollars in TICIC sales across

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Speaker 1: the weekend. That's a pretty ordinary debut for a film

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Speaker 1: that the costs probably around one hundred million dollars in rights,

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Speaker 1: in marketing and production. But it can't be too critical

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Speaker 1: because it is a solid number for a documentary. Documentaries

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Speaker 1: don't normally go that well.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so the release of Millennia was like any unlike

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Speaker 2: anything seen before. So Amazon MGM Studios paid forty million

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Speaker 2: dollars for the rights. These are all US dollars. There

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Speaker 2: was thirty five million dollars or so to market it

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Speaker 2: the most expensive documentary ever director directed by Brett Ratnam,

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Speaker 2: who pretty much had been exiled from Hollywood since twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen until this It's About the First Lady. It debuted

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Speaker 2: in almost eighteen hundred theaters across the US. Of course,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump called it a must see. I've got to

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Speaker 2: say most Americans disagreed. It is the best opening weekend

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Speaker 2: for a documentary outside of concert films in fourteen years,

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Speaker 2: so you've got to give it to that. And going

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Speaker 2: to the weekend, estimates range from three to five million

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Speaker 2: US according to Associated Press, came in at seven million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the chronicles Milani at Trump over twenty days

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Speaker 2: last January leading up to Trump's second inauguration. But when

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Speaker 2: you're spending one hundred million, forty plus thirty five plus

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Speaker 2: tens of millions more one hundred million, you can't be

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Speaker 2: happy with a seven million dollar return. Surely maybe there's

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Speaker 2: more to it than money.

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Speaker 1: Maybe, Sean, surely not. Surely there isn't a little bit

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Speaker 1: of politics creeping into Hollywood here. Okay. Up next is

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A. Today, Sean, you're speaking

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Speaker 1: with Roger Montgomery, who is a great supporter of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed from Montgomery Investment Management. And this one. If

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Speaker 1: you are an investor wanting to know what could happen

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Speaker 1: this year, it must listen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. What Roger does so well is put not

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Speaker 2: just put into plain English, but actually make it logical.

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Speaker 2: Far be for me to suggest that that investing isn't logical.

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Speaker 2: But he gives us some of the main things that

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Speaker 2: came out of twenty twenty five and how people should

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Speaker 2: think about their exposure coming into twenty twenty six, and

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Speaker 2: how to play some of the moves in the market.

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Speaker 2: Be commodity is arai that type of thing. It is

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Speaker 2: a great I mean, probably one of the better investment

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Speaker 2: chats we've had.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right there. It's come up next

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Speaker 1: to the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com. Dot Au and Sean seven

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Speaker 1: minutes now since I last heard the rooster, and completely coincidentally,

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Speaker 1: you're having chicken schnitzel for breakfast. Oh, Michael, move on,

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Speaker 1: Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the third of February twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson. And that was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.