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Speaker 1: Well, the waiters almost over. It's just gone six pm

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Speaker 1: on the East coast in the US, so New York, Washington,

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Speaker 1: all of that six pm there right now, just a

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Speaker 1: minute or so after that, and in around about twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours, although I think the polls close later over

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Speaker 1: there than they do here, maybe an hour or two.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's eight pm over there, I'll ask Natalie in

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Speaker 1: a sec, but it'll be around late morning early afternoon

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Speaker 1: as the first results start coming in for the US elections. Now,

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Speaker 1: the coasts, both of them, tend to vote Democrat, most

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Speaker 1: of the middle votes Republican. This is generally there have

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Speaker 1: been clean sweeps on both sides. Clinton didn't get every state,

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Speaker 1: but he got a lot of them in his wins

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Speaker 1: over Bob Dole and George W. H. Bush, the first Bush.

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Speaker 1: Reagan and Nickson took most of the country, both of

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Speaker 1: them in their wins in nineteen seventy two and nineteen

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Speaker 1: eighty and eighty four, So they had big wins where

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Speaker 1: the whole of the US went red in those cases.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it is generally that way. The coast

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Speaker 1: tend to be blue, the interior tends to be red.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Natalie but Sunrise host in Washington, DC

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Speaker 1: right now and not good morning or good afternoon evening

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Speaker 1: your time? Yes, so six pm there now, isn't it?

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Speaker 1: And what time the polls close tomorrow? Is it eight?

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Speaker 1: Over there?

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Speaker 2: It depends. As with most things in this election, everything

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Speaker 2: is different depending on which of the fifty stakes you

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Speaker 2: live in. They start closing six eight?

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Speaker 1: What is going on over there? This has been an

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Speaker 1: election campaign, even from our distance here in Australia, it

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Speaker 1: seems like no other we've seen anywhere before.

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Speaker 2: Yes, well, you've got, you know, quite a character in

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Speaker 2: Trump who says very volatile things. At the moment, he

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Speaker 2: is saying, if he loses, it will be rigged. They're cheating,

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Speaker 2: it's a crooked country. And then that seems to be

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Speaker 2: sparking far right groups posting messages online. For instance, one

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Speaker 2: former marine said, if they rig another one, we're going

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Speaker 2: to burn this country down. We are going head hunting.

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Speaker 2: So that's where we're at at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Goodness may well what happens if he does lose? I mean,

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Speaker 1: will there be riots? You'd hope not. Well.

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Speaker 2: As one of our experts pointed out today, there were

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Speaker 2: riots after the last two elections when Trump got in

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Speaker 2: and when Trump got out. There were protests when Hillary

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Speaker 2: lost as well, there weren't as many protests are straight

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Speaker 2: after the last election when Trump lost, but then there

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Speaker 2: was January six. It seemed to be a groundswell of

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Speaker 2: discontent over those two months, and then January six happened.

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Speaker 1: All right, Now you're in Washington, which, like Canberra we

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Speaker 1: know is a bubble. But what are you sensing on

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Speaker 1: the ground there? I mean, there are reports that it's

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Speaker 1: at for Trump at worst, a narrow loss to Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: At best, according to some polsters, he's got a resounding

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Speaker 1: victory coming up. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, even saying that I think is going out

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Speaker 2: on a limb. At the moment, the holes really are

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Speaker 2: neck and neck. The trouble here is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: whereas in Australia we have a couple of major polls,

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Speaker 2: and even then they're a bit out here, they have

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Speaker 2: thirty to fifty actual polsters and they do hundreds and

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Speaker 2: hundreds and hundreds of poles. So you can kind of

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Speaker 2: work that out there in each team, each each party

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Speaker 2: does their own polling and they put some of that

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Speaker 2: polling out sort of put the other one off and

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Speaker 2: then they sort of tweet those and then everyone gets confused.

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Speaker 2: So if you can work out the polling, I think

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Speaker 2: you're a better man than I.

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Speaker 1: Gungad Well, I'm looking at one today that's called political polls,

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Speaker 1: and it seems to this is an ex site, a

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Speaker 1: Twitter site, and it has Trump at fifty eight percent

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Speaker 1: and Harris at forty two percent. Now that's national, and

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Speaker 1: as we know, it's a state by state contest anyway,

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Speaker 1: So to some degree that's already irrelevant because it's just

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Speaker 1: seven states, isn't there that'll make that and for people

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Speaker 1: thinking what a state's mean, think of them as seats.

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Speaker 1: They've got to win. You know, the majority each of

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Speaker 1: those states has a value in terms of the Electoral College,

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Speaker 1: so they need the maximum number of votes at least

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Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy to sweep the college, which is

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Speaker 1: a total of five hundred and thirty eight votes. But

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Speaker 1: you're right, it's hard to judge given all these poles

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Speaker 1: and how they manipulate them to try and make themselves

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Speaker 1: seem more relevant.

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Speaker 2: Exactly. It's that train system that the founding fathers of

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Speaker 2: America putting in, including Alexander Hamilton, that they're still stuck

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Speaker 2: with that. A lot of people are not very happy

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Speaker 2: with called the electric College. Basically, the big states get

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Speaker 2: lots of electoral college votes and the small states get

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Speaker 2: a few in the first one to two seventy wins.

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Speaker 2: So we've really got to concentrate on those seven swing states,

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Speaker 2: and they are neck and neck really most of them.

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Speaker 2: Most of the big poles, most of the reputable poles

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Speaker 2: are still saying they're neck and neck, and even the

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Speaker 2: ones that have either candidate up a little bit are

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Speaker 2: still within the margin of error. She might have three,

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Speaker 2: he might have three, and there might be one dead

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Speaker 2: heat or they're about So that's why it is very

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Speaker 2: hard to picked. There was this outlier poll in Iowa,

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Speaker 2: a traditional Republican seats by a very well regarded polster

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Speaker 2: yesterday that did show Kamela three points ahead, which sort

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Speaker 2: of made headlines right around the country yesterday. I did

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Speaker 2: see an interview with that polster and Felsa last night.

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Speaker 2: She maintains her numbers of rights. Whether that could be

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Speaker 2: an indicator of other states, most people aren't saying, but

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Speaker 2: that polster predicted like no one else did, that Trump

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Speaker 2: would win twenty sixteen and Hillary would lose. If you remember,

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Speaker 2: most people didn't want to say they were Trump supporters

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Speaker 2: back then. This particular polster predicted that.

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Speaker 1: Then wow, okay, So and they're claiming that Harris will

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Speaker 1: win Iowa, which is a traditional Republican state. That's very interesting.

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Speaker 1: So does that show then the poles have over corrected

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Speaker 1: in favor of Trump because the last two elections they

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Speaker 1: got it wrong.

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Speaker 2: Well, we also heard from another expert yesterday who said

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Speaker 2: they basically know what none of these posters. I don't

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Speaker 2: even know how this could work, but basically none of

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Speaker 2: these polsters want to be outliers. It's the biggest example

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Speaker 2: of tear pressure that we've ever seen. That's why we're

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Speaker 2: seeing them neck and neck, and some of them must

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Speaker 2: be wrong or the country really is slipped because we've

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Speaker 2: seen it slip down gender lines. Most men are going

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Speaker 2: for Trump and most women are going for Karmela. In

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Speaker 2: this poll in Iowa, there was an abortion ban that

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Speaker 2: kicked in over the summer. So whether that has impacted women,

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Speaker 2: you would expect it would have, and Karmela's got a

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Speaker 2: lot of women, you know, in her cabs. So we

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Speaker 2: have to sort of see whether this trend in Iowa

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Speaker 2: is something that you know is replicated across the country.

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Speaker 2: And even whether that is correct with you all, don't.

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Speaker 1: Know what of the leaders of Trump and Harris been

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Speaker 1: doing today. Obviously campaigning somewhere, I'm sure.

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Speaker 2: Yes, they've both been campaigning in Pennsylvania, that swing state

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Speaker 2: which is worth the most electoral College points. It's worth

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Speaker 2: nineteen points. So both of them have basically said they

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Speaker 2: can't win unless they get Pennsylvania. So you guessed that

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Speaker 2: their last stops tonight have been Pennsylvania. That's the one

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Speaker 2: that everyone wants.

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Speaker 1: Someone a few years ago famously went through the night campaigning.

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Speaker 1: Didn't they forget? Who? What was it? George W. Bush?

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Speaker 1: I can't recall who it was, but some elections a go,

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Speaker 1: just kept campaigning and midnight rallies and all the rest,

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Speaker 1: and people were turning up for them. Was it Obama? Maye?

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Speaker 1: Whoever it was? They were? They just relentless trying to win.

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Speaker 1: And are we going to see any of that or

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Speaker 1: do they need their beauty sleep?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure. There wasn't an indication of that.

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Speaker 2: We heard Trump today just about losing his voice. He's

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Speaker 2: had these massive well, they both have had these massive rallies.

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Speaker 2: She didn't start till nearly lunch time today, so I

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Speaker 2: guess pacing herself. Look, I don't even understand. It's so

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Speaker 2: foreign for us, isn't it that they would turn up,

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Speaker 2: have rock stars at rallies and have everyone cheering and

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Speaker 2: get the merchandise, you know, the T shirts and the

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Speaker 2: hats and the you know, the pencil sharpeners. It's just

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Speaker 2: it's something else. I do not think some of this

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Speaker 2: we want to replicate.

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Speaker 1: I do remember the Kevin I seven T shirts, and

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Speaker 1: I'm glad that didn't catch on. So let's not. Let's

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Speaker 1: not go down this path. When do we start getting

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Speaker 1: results nowaday? Is it this time tomorrow? A bit later

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Speaker 1: on in the morning our time?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, our Channel seven coverage will start at eleven

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Speaker 2: thirty in the morning, will start to get the very earliest.

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Speaker 2: It's sort of I mean, the closure sword of tweeps

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Speaker 2: across the country, but because they all actually finish at

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Speaker 2: slightly different times, and then they all start counting it

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Speaker 2: at different times. I know that sounds silly, but for instance, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: that big swing state with all the Electric College votes,

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Speaker 2: they can start counting their mailing votes at seven in

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Speaker 2: the morning. Not all states can do that. Like the

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Speaker 2: problem here, they don't have an Australian Electoral Commission, they

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Speaker 2: don't have one body that controls all this stuff. Every

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Speaker 2: single county, every single state basically runs their own rates.

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Speaker 2: They count them differently. Some of them even have paper ballots,

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Speaker 2: some have electronic ballots, Some have different kinds of electronic

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Speaker 2: systems that run their ballots. Some still have remember the

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Speaker 2: hanging chad from that Bush score, Yes too, you go

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Speaker 2: twenty four years ago. Some still do that, Some still

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Speaker 2: do the punches in the you know, the little clipper

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Speaker 2: in the in the ballot paper. So I mean it's

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Speaker 2: a dog breakfast really yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Well, good luck counting and reporting on all

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Speaker 1: of that. Nat has been great speaking with you today,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sure you've got better things to do right now.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for your time.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for going to dinner out.

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Speaker 1: Good on you. That's better. Natalie bar from Sunrise host

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Speaker 1: of course she is in Washington, DC and more from that.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure over the next twenty four thirty six hours

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Speaker 1: as the results start to unfild about eleven thirty on

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Speaker 1: tomorrow going to be an interesting day. So you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're sitting at home, thinking, oh, how do I

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Speaker 1: spend the Arvo, flick on the Telly, grab some popcorn

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Speaker 1: or your favorite snack bag of more esus, whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: and pomp yourself in your favorite armchair and start watching

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Speaker 1: them come through. I recall in twenty sixteen there wasn't

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Speaker 1: a clear indication until eight nine pm our time, and

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Speaker 1: I can remember poor old Baron Trump, who's now what

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Speaker 1: eighteen or something, but we're talking eight years ago, so

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Speaker 1: it was about ten almost people having to nudge him

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Speaker 1: to stay away because it was about three in the

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Speaker 1: morning theretime before results were known that Trump was likely

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Speaker 1: to win. And that's how long it took. So it

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Speaker 1: could be if it's close, it might not even be

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Speaker 1: tomorrow night our time. So interesting days ahead for the US,

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Speaker 1: certainly as they prepare to vote, and about half of

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Speaker 1: them already have, so another half to go. About seventy

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Speaker 1: million have voted so far, and I think the last

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Speaker 1: presidential election about one hundred and fifty million voted, so

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Speaker 1: half the country