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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The local share market hits

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Speaker 1: a record high as Chemist Warehouse joins the boss the

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Speaker 1: Federal Independence. Let it be known that whoever wins the

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Speaker 1: next election will have to work hard for their support.

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Speaker 1: And a bunch of earnings results from Treasury, Wines and

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Speaker 1: Temple and Webster to IAG and Promedicus plus Apple TV

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Speaker 1: will finally be allowed on Android devices, and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is set to meet Vladimir Putin. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the fourteenth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and Happy Valentine's Day, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Right back at you, Michael. Happy Valentine's Day.

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Speaker 1: What a way to start the day. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning, Sean. The local share market hit a record

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Speaker 1: high yesterday, touching eight thousand, five hundred and seventy five points,

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Speaker 1: as investors grow confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia

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Speaker 1: will cut interest rates next week.

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Speaker 2: It has been a cracking start the year, with ESMPA

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Speaker 2: sex two hundred and up five percent since the thirty

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Speaker 2: first of December. Really it's been all about gold stocks.

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Speaker 2: The big banks led by common Off Bank and consumer

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Speaker 2: discretionary company. Some we've blood for a long time JB

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Speaker 2: High Phase, Donewell this year. Some that we haven't liked

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Speaker 2: for a while, but we do like more now, Dominos

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Speaker 2: being an example there. The interest rate decision next week

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Speaker 2: is a big one. Pretty much everyone expects the first

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Speaker 2: cut in rates since November twenty twenty. Now we've had

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Speaker 2: plenty of rises since then, but no cuts. The fact

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank isn't saying anything to correct market

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Speaker 2: speculation is seen as reason to have plenty of confidence

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Speaker 2: about a rate cut on Tuesday. It isn't a done deal.

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Speaker 2: Higher inflation in the US overnight highlights how price rises

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Speaker 2: and economies are tricky things to get hold of, but

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Speaker 2: investors are increasingly confident of a rate cut. Quality stocks

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Speaker 2: are booming. So yesterday it was more about the big

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Speaker 2: miners on the back of iron ore prices. But generally,

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Speaker 2: you know, the banks, the really good retailers. Where's farmers.

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Speaker 2: They've done really well. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Can I ask you something though, when you mentioned that

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Speaker 1: the RBA isn't really saying anything to kind of correct

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Speaker 1: the market speculation about a cut on the way. What

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Speaker 1: do you mean by that in terms of kind of

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Speaker 1: through the various speeches and things that the representatives of

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Speaker 1: the bank make it at all different times throughout the year.

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Speaker 1: Is it that kind of thing?

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Speaker 2: It is maybe ten years ago, twenty years ago. There

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Speaker 2: used to be a couple of journalists around the place

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Speaker 2: who seem to have the ear of the Reserve Bank,

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Speaker 2: and this is pre modern communications.

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Speaker 1: Really.

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Speaker 2: One is a guy called Alan Mitchell from the finn Review.

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Speaker 2: There was a Ross Gittens from the Sydney Morning Herald

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Speaker 2: as a guy from the Daily Telegraph, and it was

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Speaker 2: funny sometimes had just before the Tuesday meeting. On the Monday,

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Speaker 2: they'd write a column saying, well, everyone thinks that the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank's going to cut or not cut. We don't

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Speaker 2: think so, and the whole market will move on it,

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Speaker 2: and they sort of somehow only know I don't know

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Speaker 2: how they did it, but they just knew. Nowadays it's

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Speaker 2: much more transparent, and I think the point is if

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Speaker 2: the market was wrong, the Reserve Bank would somehow get

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Speaker 2: out to the market that it's wrong. You're pricing in

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Speaker 2: the wrong information. And the markets is pretty much priced

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Speaker 2: in a rate cut next Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Because otherwise there would be a potentially significant correction next

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Speaker 1: Tuesday when the decision is announced, and it was the

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Speaker 1: other way to what the market was predicting.

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Speaker 2: That's right. So if there's no rate cut next week,

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Speaker 2: you will see things like the share market for the

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Speaker 2: Aussie dollar will rise or appreciate against other currencies, and

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Speaker 2: it just creates volatility. Now that's not necessarily a bad thing,

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Speaker 2: but the Reserve Bank does like car markets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Now, Sean, the story of the day yesterday

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Speaker 1: it was the trading of the combined Sigma Healthcare Chemist

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Speaker 1: warehouse business. It was day one for the new company,

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Speaker 1: which is very kind of signficant day considering it's worth

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Speaker 1: thirty two billion dollars and at share price jumped five percent.

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Speaker 1: That is not a bad first day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you bought Sigma shares in early September, we

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Speaker 2: knew about the proposed deal, but it had all these

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Speaker 2: regulatory hurdles to get through. This is early September, you'd

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Speaker 2: be up more than two hundred and fifty percents. So

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Speaker 2: he put one thousand bucks in, you'd have two and

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Speaker 2: a half thousand dollars. Not bad I reckon. The happiest

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Speaker 2: person is co founder and CEO Mario VERROCKI. He today

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Speaker 2: is worth five billion dollars. Not bad a bunch of franchisees.

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Speaker 2: It's about one hundred and four franchisees, I think. So

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Speaker 2: people who have taken out of franchise in Chemists Warehouse,

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Speaker 2: they're actually getting effectively paid out in stock. So they're

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Speaker 2: going to have shares worth between five million and twenty

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Speaker 2: five million. So you think of those retailers who've been

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Speaker 2: working seven days a week for years and years in

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Speaker 2: Chemists Warehouse stores, they're going to be very rich this morning.

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Speaker 2: Good on them. Talk about Sigmua taking out of a

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Speaker 2: chemist warehouse, not really, it's the other way around. It's

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Speaker 2: what the market calls a reverse takeover, So it's where

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Speaker 2: the company being taken over really has control, and that's

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Speaker 2: what's happening in this instance. Anyway, a great first day

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Speaker 2: for the new Sigma Healthcare which includes Chemist Warehouse. Good

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Speaker 2: luck to him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a fantastic story. Now Sean Labor is going

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Speaker 1: to have a tough time of it dealing with crossbenches

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Speaker 1: if there is a minority government after the federal election.

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Speaker 1: And this was particularly demonstrated yesterday when we had Independent

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Speaker 1: Zali Stegel confronting Special Minister of State Don Farrell when

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Speaker 1: he was holding a press conference. Yes, so these things

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Speaker 1: are It is so uncomfortable when it happens, but god,

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Speaker 1: it's entertaining.

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Speaker 2: It is. It doesn't happen that often that a politician

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Speaker 2: interrupts another politician when they're giving a press conference, but

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Speaker 2: it does occasionally. The issue yesterday was an overhaul of

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Speaker 2: federal election laws. So Labor and Libs combined, or Labor

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Speaker 2: and the coalition combined to shut out the independence in

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Speaker 2: voting for changes to election laws that limit the ability

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Speaker 2: of individuals to bankroll candidates. So you think of Clive

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Speaker 2: Palmer or Simon Holmes of Courts Climate two hundred initiative.

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Speaker 2: That's been about six million dollars last election, and ultimately

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Speaker 2: sixteal candidates who received a bunch of that money were elected. Now,

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Speaker 2: I think the limit now is fifty thousand dollars for

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Speaker 2: Climate two hundred per individual, so it's really cutting funding

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Speaker 2: from some of these guys. Meanwhile, under the new legislation,

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Speaker 2: the major parties will get about one hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: million dollars in public money, So that's why the Teals

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Speaker 2: are so upset. Zalie Stegel has sort of emerged as

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Speaker 2: the de facto leader of the independence of the Teals.

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Speaker 2: She confronted Don Farrell over the changes yesterday when he

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Speaker 2: was giving a press conference. Effectively she said it was

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Speaker 2: BS and that she use the term B. Yes, what

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Speaker 2: it does show and this is why I think it's

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Speaker 2: particularly interesting. We've got a federal election coming up and

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Speaker 2: are likelihood we a minority government run by Anthony Alberisi

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Speaker 2: or Peter Dunn. Just the fact that the coalition needs

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Speaker 2: twenty one seats to capture Labor suggests that it probably

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Speaker 2: will be a Labor minority government. They have to deal

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Speaker 2: with Zari Stegel's and all the independents, and unless they

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Speaker 2: take this seriously, they are in all sorts. So is

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Speaker 2: a really interesting and relevant intervention by Dari Stegel on

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Speaker 2: Farrell yesterday.

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Speaker 1: It's a fascinating story and just and really one of

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Speaker 1: those public interventions pushes it into the headlines in a

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Speaker 1: way that it wouldn't normally be.

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Speaker 2: We probably wouldn't have covered that press conference this morning

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Speaker 2: if Zari Stegel hadn't made such a thing of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not a bad strategy, all right, Sean, We've got

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Speaker 1: plenty more to cover. We've got results, Golore Treasury Wine Estates,

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Speaker 1: We've got who are so we're talking about We're talking

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Speaker 1: about Temple and webs to one of your favorites. Really,

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Speaker 1: isn't it? Plenty more coming. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Shawn

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Speaker 1: Treasury Wine Estates has dumped plans to sell its low

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Speaker 1: cost brands think wolf Blasts, Linderman's, Yellow Glend, and Blossom

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Speaker 1: Hill because it can't get a high enough price.

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Speaker 2: That's right. They've been trying to offlow Treasury has been

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Speaker 2: trying to offload the brand since August last year, but

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Speaker 2: they're just not finding a buyer that suits their needs. Treasury,

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Speaker 2: of course owns Penfolds, that's its main brand. It's been

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Speaker 2: a pretty tough time for the wine maker. It's downgraded

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Speaker 2: its full year profit, even though the six months at

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Speaker 2: the end of December came in much higher than a

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Speaker 2: year early earlier. Penfoles remains the highlight. Now. Over that

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Speaker 2: last six months, it was able to export again to

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Speaker 2: China because the tariffs had come off as a result.

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Speaker 2: Penfolds did really well, but mid tier and commercial wine

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Speaker 2: brands are struggling. The under ten dollar bottle. There's a

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Speaker 2: glut of that wine, and younger consumers are turning to

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Speaker 2: ready to drink spirits. That's where the growth is. So

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Speaker 2: the ten dollar bottle of wine is really struggling, and

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Speaker 2: they're just not selling anywhere near as much. As a result,

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Speaker 2: Treasury is going to end up stuck with these And

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Speaker 2: maybe I'm being a bit unfair saying stuck. It's going

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Speaker 2: to hold onto that portfolio. Investors weren't happy. Treasury share

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Speaker 2: price is down six percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: That's the first time you haven't referred to the under

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Speaker 1: ten dollar bottle of wine as my kind of wine.

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Speaker 2: And I held back.

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Speaker 1: I know I can see it actually hurt you not

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Speaker 1: to do that. Sean Renovators have spurred strong sales at

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Speaker 1: Temple and Webster, with the online retailer reporting higher demand

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Speaker 1: for sofas, for beds, for bathroom fixtures, lots of stuff.

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Speaker 2: Revenue and profit both higher and above expectations. The group's

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Speaker 2: share price jumped to fourteen percent. Now the company sells

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Speaker 2: more than two hundred thousand products operating a platform that

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Speaker 2: allows suppliers to ship directly to customers. While the must

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Speaker 2: haves doing well, do you want to have things like

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Speaker 2: art mirrors, they're not selling so well. Sales on the

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Speaker 2: last half will helped by a growing number of new

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Speaker 2: customers and plenty of people returning for purchases. The retailer

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Speaker 2: intends to increase its Home brand range of bathroom fixtures,

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Speaker 2: with its home improvement sector basically being the fastest segment

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Speaker 2: for it as l As a result, the share price

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Speaker 2: jumped yesterday.

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Speaker 1: IAG's share price tumbled thirteen percent yesterday Seawan even though

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Speaker 1: the insurer almost doubled its net profit thanks really to

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Speaker 1: benign weather conditions.

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Speaker 2: Okay, this is a great example of companies needing to

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Speaker 2: meet or beat expectations. Remember we talk about what happens

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Speaker 2: on isn't so much about the profit they made. It's

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Speaker 2: about what they say about the future, and that's what

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Speaker 2: really drives the share price. So it's actually a good

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Speaker 2: six months for the insurer for the six months to

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Speaker 2: the end of December. Benign weather means keep for lit

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Speaker 2: them costs strong investment markets, so you know you pay

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Speaker 2: a premium, they invest that money, good return on that

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Speaker 2: for IAG haven't had to pay out too much because

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Speaker 2: it's benign weather. Good six months however, they said that

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Speaker 2: there is slow down in premium growth and that actually

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Speaker 2: really hurts a revenue. Now we might be upset for

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Speaker 2: the shareholders. The good news for US mortals we pay

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Speaker 2: the premiums, so a slow down in premium growth means that,

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Speaker 2: you know, the jump in premium for car insurance, for

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Speaker 2: house insurance isn't going to be as much as it

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Speaker 2: has been the past couple of years. So bad news

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Speaker 2: for shareholders, good news for customers. A AG of course,

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Speaker 2: houses a suite of brands including NROMA and CGU. You

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Speaker 2: know what I like about like companies IAG when you

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Speaker 2: actually look at the results and you try and get

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Speaker 2: behind the jargon. What they're telling us is actually the

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Speaker 2: cost of your car insurance isn't going to jump as

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Speaker 2: much next year.

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Speaker 1: It's the story within the result. It's just it is

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Speaker 1: putting it down to a very human level, something that

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Speaker 1: we can all understand exactly. Now, do the same for

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Speaker 1: us on this one. Sean pro Medicus, which is a

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Speaker 1: company that we've talked a lot about in the past,

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Speaker 1: haven't we Because it's had a spectacular run. It reported

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Speaker 1: record revenue and profit yesterday, but at share price fell

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Speaker 1: just over three percent.

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Speaker 2: So this is a price to perfection stock and the

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Speaker 2: result was just a touch below expectations. So whereas IAG

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Speaker 2: was talking about the future, that's what caused it sell off.

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Speaker 2: Promedicus just the result wasn't quite there and as a result,

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Speaker 2: its share price sold off a little bit. Initially it

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Speaker 2: went up, the share price then fell. It's still up

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and sixty percent over the past year.

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Speaker 2: It is literally up one thousand percent in the past

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Speaker 2: five years. Right, this has been an incredible stock and

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Speaker 2: it was a good result. More cash, new contracts in

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Speaker 2: the US, better profit margins. However, when it comes to Promedicus,

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Speaker 2: it is a super expensive stock, so investors basically the

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Speaker 2: share price reflects what investors think future earnings will be.

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Speaker 2: And without getting in the technical terms, it's called a

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Speaker 2: pe ratio. And a company like Commonwealth Bank, which we

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Speaker 2: all know it's trading at twenty seven times, so just

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Speaker 2: think of that as a benchmark great company twenty seven times.

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Speaker 2: Tech stocks always do a lot better, so wise Tech

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Speaker 2: Global Market Darling. It's training at about one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty times future earnings. Promedicus is trading at two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty times future earning. So even if you don't

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Speaker 2: know what any of that meant in a technical sense, right,

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Speaker 2: the fact that Commonwealth Bank is twenty seven times wise Tech,

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Speaker 2: which is a market darling and tech stocks, there's reasons

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Speaker 2: that they're a lot higher one hundred and fifty Promedicus

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty times earnings.

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Speaker 1: It is expensive and that is why today's interview is

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Speaker 1: a must listen, Sean, because it is part of our

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Speaker 1: series of interviews that we're doing with our partners and

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Speaker 1: friends at osbiz, which is Australia's leading provider of live

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Speaker 1: and on demand video of the latest news in Australian

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Speaker 1: business markets, economy and startups. You can sign up for

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Speaker 1: free at osbiz dot com dot au. But the interview

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Speaker 1: today is with doctor Sam Hoopert, who is the co

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Speaker 1: founder and chief executive of Promedicus, and the interview starts

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Speaker 1: with that exact question basically, so stick around for that

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Speaker 1: one's coming up after the show, Sean. Plenty more here

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Speaker 1: a stack of profits, as you would expect in earning season,

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Speaker 1: will race through them fairly quickly. Some of the highlights

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Speaker 1: include good news for ASX Limited, which is the company

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Speaker 1: that houses the local share market. It makes money in

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Speaker 1: part by enticing more companies to list on the exchange,

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Speaker 1: and Boss Helen Lofthouse, so that was happening, pointing obviously

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Speaker 1: to chemists warehouse Sigma. The volatility of markets also helps

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Speaker 1: ASX limited, and it announced a ten percent higher pre

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Speaker 1: tax profit for the six months to the end of December.

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Speaker 1: It's share price close up five percent.

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Speaker 2: Former ari A chief executive Greg Ellis, will take the

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Speaker 2: top job at its main competitor, Domain while the company

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Speaker 2: looks for a full time boss. Ellis was in charge

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Speaker 2: of Aria from about nineteen sorry from about two thousand

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Speaker 2: and eight to twenty fourteen. He then went to moob

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Speaker 2: and ran that business that came as. The company said

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Speaker 2: earnings had risen sharply as more people visited the site,

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Speaker 2: its share price jump to seven percent.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday, Origin Energy posted a bigger than expected increasing core

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Speaker 1: profit for the first half as earnings from its gas

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Speaker 1: business more than offset weaker results from generating and selling electricity.

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Speaker 1: It also said it was losing more money than expected

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Speaker 1: at its Octopus Energy business in the UK. Its share

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Speaker 1: price fell one percent.

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Speaker 2: Glass bottle and cam manufacturer Aurora been on the show Aurora,

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Speaker 2: we like them. They'll cut glass capacity in Australia and

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Speaker 2: redirect some of the production to the United Arab Emirates,

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Speaker 2: resulting in some job losses locally as it contends with

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Speaker 2: a drop in commercial beer and wine sales. The new

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Speaker 2: cent Aurora's share price down about six percent, notwithstanding it

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Speaker 2: actually increase its half year profit.

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Speaker 1: So you'd say share price pain for a glass company.

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Speaker 2: Nice, nice, pretty.

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Speaker 1: Prayer that one. The country's biggest gold producer, Northern Star,

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Speaker 1: said earnings were up nearly sixty percent on the back

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Speaker 1: of a higher price of gold. The group also lifted

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Speaker 1: its dividend and its share price rose slightly.

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Speaker 2: And finally divestified. Minus South thirty two pasted a near

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Speaker 2: sevenfold increasing profit in the first half thanks to higher

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Speaker 2: copper and aluminum output. Profit from the half for the

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Speaker 2: half year went from fifty three million US to three

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Speaker 2: sixty million US. Not bad. The company also up to

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Speaker 2: its dividend and it's share price jumped three and a

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Speaker 2: half percent.

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Speaker 1: Goodness me, we've covered some territory there well, just back

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Speaker 1: and forth like tennis wasn't it. This is good news, Sean,

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Speaker 1: if you've got an Android device, Apple has finally released

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Speaker 1: its streaming platform on rival Android devices, and it's going

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Speaker 1: to let customers pay for subscriptions on Google Play accounts.

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Speaker 1: As regulatory pressure mounts to open up. It's really really

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Speaker 1: very tightly controlled eCos system.

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Speaker 2: All those Android users, you can watch Severance and ted Lasso,

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Speaker 2: those great shows the Apple. The Apple TV app and

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Speaker 2: streaming service Apple tv Plus will be available on Samsung

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Speaker 2: phones and tablets and Google Pixels or any device that

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Speaker 2: supports Android ten or later. According to a report in

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Speaker 2: The Australian, Apple says it's built the app from the

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Speaker 2: ground up to deliver Android years is a familiar and

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Speaker 2: intuitive interface. Do you reckon that develops their Apple We're

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Speaker 2: just a bit irritated that they had to build an

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Speaker 2: app in an Android sphere.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, you wouldn't put much love into the design.

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Speaker 2: Fine y yeah. The world's most valuable company has been

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Speaker 2: under pressure to open up its ecosystem, including our payments

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Speaker 2: outside its own system. In Australia, Britain and Europe. The HBLLC,

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Speaker 2: the competition watchdog locally, has been investigating the market power

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Speaker 2: of Apple and other tech titans recently. Anyway, this kind

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Speaker 2: of somewhat alleviates that.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news Now Shawn, President Donald Trump said

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Speaker 1: washing A Moscow will begin negotiations immediately on ending the

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Speaker 1: war in Ukraine after speaking with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 2: Call suggests a dramatic turnaround in the US Russia relationship

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Speaker 2: amid signs Washington would reduce its support for Ukraine after

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Speaker 2: almost three years of war. Trump wrote on his Truth

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Speaker 2: social platform that he and Putin had agreed to work

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Speaker 2: together very closely, expressing confidence that the talks would be

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Speaker 2: successful and vowing them more lives should be lost. He

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Speaker 2: said the two leaders had also agreed to visit each

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Speaker 2: other's nations. Now they will meet in Saudia Arabia. Apparently

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Speaker 2: the core between the two last about ninety minutes Moscow.

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Speaker 2: It's the first time that Washington and Moscow have spoken

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Speaker 2: at a high level since Russia invaded Ukraine. Trump spoke

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Speaker 2: to Putin before he then called Vladimir Zelenski, Ukraine's president.

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Speaker 2: Not as clear how that conversation went, but I think

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Speaker 2: that would be a bit tougher for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: I imagine, so finally show on inflation. The scourge of

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Speaker 1: Western economies may not be eaten in the US with

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Speaker 1: prices again rising at more than a three percent pace.

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Speaker 2: It supports the case for the Federal Reserve to slow

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Speaker 2: down at any interest rate carts. It'll be closely monitored

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Speaker 2: by the local Reserve Bank. I dare say when they

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Speaker 2: meet next week.

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Speaker 1: I suspect you might be right, Sean. Up next Fear

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Speaker 1: and Go daily interview. As we mentioned with the boss

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Speaker 1: of Promedicus. Stick around for that. It's coming up in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greet playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com dot au. And at midday a

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Speaker 1: new episode of Ask Fear and Greed. Thank you very much, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. It is Friday, the thirteenth of February

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and

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Speaker 1: please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson And that was Fear and Greed at a

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Speaker 1: Great Day