WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 6 April 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:06.600 From the Skyinging Center. This is Paul Murray Live. All 0:00:06.640 --> 0:00:09.880 I may welcome into the man Cave, hardcore politics on 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:12.680 a Sunday night, just the way we like it, piping 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.600 hot piles and lots to fire up about this evening. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:17.680 In State of the Race, which we like to do 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.119 each and every week, Cosamaras and man who's got the numbers, 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.080 the man who's got the experience when it comes to politics, 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:26.279 and other than the great Michael Kroger. Lee Hansen. Yes, 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:29.720 Pauline's daughter running for the Senate. She's running against Jackie 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:31.840 Lambi and Tasmania, so I'm more than happy to give 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.080 her as much time on the air as possible. Also, 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:37.480 what a week we have here on Sky News. On 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:41.000 Tuesday night, seven point thirty in prime time, the Prime 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:44.320 Minister versus the Alternative Prime Minister in the People's Forum, 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:47.159 one hundred undecided voters in Western Sydney. We'll get their 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:49.480 chance to ask whatever they want, not what the media 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:53.720 has decided. The next day, again in primetime, Jim Chalmers 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.760 versus Angus Taylor about the economy, and in the middle 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.240 of the day via the National Press Club, a conversation 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.080 about energy with blackout Bowen or the man who would 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.560 like to send us into a nuclear age at some 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.840 point in time. Ted O'Brien, three massive days, three debates, 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.720 full coverage, each and every night here at nine o'clock, 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.240 which is the same time on the East coast. Now 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.399 that that daylight saving business has gone for the bin, 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:18.039 I'm glad that you hear. There's an awful lot to 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:19.840 get to tonight before I get to the polls. And 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.640 yes they have strengthened in terms of the government, but 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.480 as always, devil is in the detail. Let's have a look. 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:30.640 Twenty seven days to go, or more importantly, just sixteen 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:34.200 until the first votes will be cast in this election. 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.720 More than half of four people expected to vote early. 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:38.840 That's why it matters. That's why the first couple of 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:41.800 weeks particularly matters. I do like how the Prime Minister 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.400 keeps talking about trying to fend off American style politics 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:47.160 and then has a Trump style rally, signs and awe 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.080 in Brisbane today where unsurprisingly he had more of your 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:51.840 money to spend. 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:57.720 Today I announced that Labor will make batteries thirty percent 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:03.000 cheaper for Australian homes, more businesses and community facilities that 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.880 means saving around four thousand dollars on the cost of 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:12.160 installing a tiberial battery, and it means slashing your power 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:13.600 bills permanently. 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.200 Where have we heard a version of this before? By 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:19.000 the way, does he understand how offensive it is to 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.480 stand in front of the national flag? Doesn't have a 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:24.280 policy of standing in almost everything. But anyway, it's election 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:27.120 time and Gido Mantrick, you're supposed to forget the past 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.680 three years and their priorities about what symbols best represent 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:34.040 our country because remember he's definitely not work As for 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.520 the alternative Prime Minister, well he was all over the shop. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:40.040 But this weekend again at Tasmania. Spend a bit of 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.079 time there, spend a bit of time in the Northern 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:46.840 territory as well. His big announcement today at his election rally. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:50.400 The first of this campaign was to focus on cutting 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.520 the number of students who are clogging up our immigration system. 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.200 Our international student numbers are up by sixty five percent 0:02:57.960 --> 0:02:59.960 under this government over the last twelve month. 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:00.640 We want to. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.840 Provide support to original universities and we put in place 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:07.000 at cap which will be thirty thousand lower than what 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:09.680 Labor has in place or eighty thousand, lower than what 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:11.519 the numbers were just a couple of years ago. 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.880 Oh, the most popular segment on the program, certainly when 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:16.680 it comes to people watching it, but not to my 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.720 colleagues and friends in the wider media. This is about 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.959 how the media spun it for labor this weekend, always 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:27.359 the benefit of the doubt. These are the hard hitting 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.120 questions that the Prime Minister copped this weekend from a 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.200 press pack who have the feeling they're dealing with him 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:33.840 for another three years and done when an upset the 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:34.400 apple cart? 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:39.119 What role do you think climate change is playing, if any, 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:40.640 in exacerbating those impacts? 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.480 A day after mayor thirdness, of course May the fourth behaved. 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.120 What are you willing to do beyond what's already man 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:53.480 back down under thousands of accounts affected at Brant and Australian. 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:54.720 Super Have you been briefed on it? 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.120 What's the government's respond As for the media traveling with 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.680 the alternative Prime Minister, Well, I saw my own eyes 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:04.280 when we were in Brisbane at our pub tests. They're 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:06.680 not big fans of the alternative Prime Minister, so they 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:08.720 love nothing but the hard questions for him. You see, 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:10.520 if you keep him on defense, he can't get on 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:12.440 an attack. And if he doesn't go on attack, then 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:14.520 everything stays the way that it is and Albo gets 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:15.440 another three years. 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.520 Can you guarantee that Australians will know what waste and 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.520 efficiency changes would be made for the election and will 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.200 it be like doze and a surprise after the We. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.240 Have given few details, whether it is how your gas 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:29.360 plan is going to get electricity bills down or how 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:33.080 you're going to spend the health and education budgets. Why 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.560 is there is delay on letting voters into the secret? 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:39.560 Did the coalition government at the time blunder when it 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:40.719 allowed the sale? 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.800 Given that response from voters, in particular female voters, which 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.240 the coalition is struggling to get attraction with, will you 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:47.279 reconsider your policy? 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:49.719 By the way, quick note to the people in charge 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.560 of the Libook campaign. So that lady's standing behind Peter 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.839 Dutton Senator, did you sent a nampaginper price. Let's get 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.799 her front and center. She knows how to argue something 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:02.360 from sixty forty yes, pulling it back to sixty forty zero. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.800 I want to see more from her in the next 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.640 little while. She's an absolute powerhouse and anytime she wants 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:09.800 to come on the show, she is more than welcome. Yes, 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.400 of course. In the same way I did not care 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.799 about the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I will 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.960 not pretend that there was not an incident where the 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.200 alternative Prime Minister was kicking the footy with a bunch 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.600 of kids. The cameraman got too close and he got 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:23.479 bandageges up as if it was some sort of a 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.159 head wound from a sniper. I'm not sure why such 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.080 an extensive amount of bandages were needed, but Jesus was 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:32.479 a big over cell, wasn't it again. I'm sorry that 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.120 somebody got hurt. That's the way that it is. But 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.680 the idea that we needed to pretend that there was 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:40.160 some sort of a gunshot wound a little much anyway. 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.240 As you've seen many times, I didn't care when it 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:45.039 was the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I don't 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.320 care when it's Peter Don't accidentally kicking your footy to 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:49.479 the cameraman. What I do care about is it of course, 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.279 the Prime Minister lied, remember, went on radio and pretend no, 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.680 I didn't fall off the stage. No attempt from that. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:56.320 When it comes to pet it up small things, but 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:57.159 it is the way. 0:05:57.040 --> 0:05:57.480 That it is. 0:05:57.760 --> 0:05:59.479 By the way, I would like somebody to tell me 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.680 why is there a double standard for when our leaders 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:06.120 must turn up to natural disasters? You see, of course 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:09.600 Anthony Buteze literally delayed the election, forced to budget all 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:11.880 because he wanted to be seen to be part of everything. 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.120 When it came to x tropical Cyclone Alfred in Queensland. 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:18.400 He was even doing pointless press conferences just to somehow 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.840 get in the middle of those news days when we 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:22.799 were worried about what was going to be happening. There 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:26.760 now an event that actually had more rain in certain 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.560 parts than Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Are the floods that had 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:34.960 been thumping, thumping central Queensland. Now the size of Texas 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:37.280 is the amount of how much water and how much 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.880 flood damage is around there. Well, the Prime Minister finally 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:45.360 turned up, but it was a week a week after 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:48.520 Peter Dutton was there. Now I thought we had to 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:50.960 live in some sort of a scenario where the second 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:53.800 even a hint of trouble is coming that the Prime 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.880 Minister must be there. If not he is not caring. Well, 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.400 I think that standard's ridiculous, But I also think turning 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:03.320 up a week week after the event is taking place 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:06.680 is well not good enough. But it didn't. He was 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:08.960 there last Monday, and there was a couple of days 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:11.760 after we had started talking about what was happening. But 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.480 I'm glad that he was there and relatively quickly. Of course, 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.040 the reality here is that because many of these people 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:20.440 are good Queensland folk who probably aren't going to voe 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:22.680 labor anytime in their life, and there's not enough population 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:25.040 and there wasn't rolling television coverage were the Prime Minister 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.080 just thought he could put it into the who cares basket, 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.320 eventually turning up as he did. But my point is this, 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:36.760 The tumbleweeds start rolling when it's a labor politician who's 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.200 late to turn up to a flood or a fire, 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.320 but if it's a Libs it's a sign that they 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:46.520 don't care. Let's get to the polls. And the latest 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:50.360 is striking when it comes to the change that a 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.880 month has been in Australian politics. Literally the fifth of 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:56.280 March is when we were talking about a headline that 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.880 said that the Coalition was within striking distance of twenty 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:05.320 key marginal seats. Tonight, the sixth of April News poll, 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:08.080 Labor extends its pole lead over the coalition and is 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:12.160 now edging towards a majority government, not the minority that 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:15.720 everyone saw and was basically still the bookie's favorite. But 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.640 now if they keep this growth up, they're able to 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:21.080 improve themselves. Well guess what, there is a chance they 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.480 could end up with seventy six seats or more. As 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.880 for the primary vote, now, I'm going to compare this 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.200 to the current primary vote which is up on the 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.440 News poll site, and compare it to where it was 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:37.040 at the last election. Labor Liberal Greens exactly the same 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.920 vote as it was in the twenty twenty two election. 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:42.319 So that was one of the lowest primary votes in 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:44.960 Labor history. But clearly it was a bad night for 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.600 the Liberal Party, losing a whole collection of seats. If 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.120 that gets repeated, then again there's a level of status quo. 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.480 But a couple of things worth noticing here, And I 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.160 want people to start talking about one nation. Now. One 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.800 nation got five percent at the last Fed election. It 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:03.880 is now up two percent nationally one week into a 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.920 federal election campaign. And that number is pretty significant that 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:09.760 it is now up two points. Now they're going to say, 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.040 a margin of era means two points up, two points down. 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:14.840 But every poll relentlessly tells us that one nation is 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:18.880 doing better than it did three years ago. And if 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:20.960 this poll is right, there's no change for the Libs, 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:25.360 the Nats or the Greens. The conversation becomes preferences, the 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.480 preferences of one nation, the role of one nation getting 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:33.400 extra Senate seats, the preferences of the other and independent vote. Now, 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.520 the Palmer vote is not strong enough yet to know 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.520 exactly which way it's going to go, but the suggestions 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.599 are that I think four percent or something close to 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:41.679 it at the last election. It's now around two the 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:44.880 overall headline though, fifty two forty eight. That is after 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.680 the first full week of campaigning. Now a lot of 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:50.240 people are going to say that's it, game over. There's 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.680 no way these things turn around. Well, they always turn around, 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:56.320 as Peeder Gredlin very correctly showed you after the twenty 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:02.480 ten election the twenty nineteen election, often fifty two to 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:04.280 forty eight at the start ends up becoming fifty to 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.520 fifty and then maybe ever so slightly fifty one forty nine. 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:10.120 So this thing is not over. But we cannot pretend 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:14.000 that the trend is not the Liberal Party's friend. Instead 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:16.520 it is going okay for the Prime minister. Right now, however, 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.040 let's actually start to drill down a little deeper, because 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:20.080 you know, I like to have a look at this, 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.200 which is Labour's primary vote in terms of key states, 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.680 because it's not just that it's not an overall national election. 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.320 It is one hundred and fifty one separate elections, and 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:30.880 then of course there's the elections within the elections. Have 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:32.960 a look at this now, I'm going to show you 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.000 the primary vote from the last election. This was the 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.400 national vote, the New so Wales vote, the Victoria vote, 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:42.560 the Queensland vote, and the marginal seats. Okay, apparently nothing 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:47.120 has changed according to news poll. But something has changed 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.720 when it comes to the Resolve poll. Now, don't worry. 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:51.320 You don't have to remember all of the colors and 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:53.319 remember all of the numbers. I've done that for you. 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:58.280 This is the latest one. Now, this one is polls 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:00.720 that lead up to March. So if we're to believe 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:02.719 the past four weeks, all of these poles have got 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:04.360 better for Labor, all of them have got worse for 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.319 the Libs. But only ever so slightly like one up, 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:10.040 one down, but that's enough to start pushing you from 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.960 fifty to fifty to forty one forty nine. And even 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:14.800 if it becomes two points, that's where we end up 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.240 with fifty two forty eight. But let me give you 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:18.520 an idea here, and I'm sorry, I'm going to keep 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:19.960 this graphic up for a little while because I need 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.000 to use mc glasses to have a look here. Nationally, 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:26.200 Labour Party down four points since the election. Labour Party 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.240 down three points in New South Wales, Labor Party down 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:33.760 five points in Victoria, Queensland down two points. The Libs 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.800 up one point nationally, three in New South Wales, two 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.520 in Victoria, down one in Queensland. The Green's basically the 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.440 same or up one nationally and in New South Wales. 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:48.320 Pay attention to one nation because they're up two points nationally, 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.880 one point in New South Wales, two points in Victoria, 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:55.200 five points in Queensland. That's really important for Malcolm Roberts 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:59.319 who's going for his Senate spot. But as for the Independence, 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:02.000 they're up every where, just one point in Queensland, four 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:05.480 points in Victoria, six points in New South Wales and 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:10.040 four points as well. So the picture here is essentially 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.000 big enough drop for it to be significant when it 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.480 comes to the Labor Party, where the vote is falling 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.920 anywhere from two points in Queensland to four points nationally 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:23.760 five points in Victoria. Now remember we talk a lot 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:28.040 about Victoria because the failure of the local state government 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:32.000 is really bleeding into a problem for the Labor brand. 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.079 So while Labour might be able to hold on to 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:35.880 most of what it's got, maybe three out of the 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.840 four in Western Australia, it might be able to either 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.880 lose one or pick one up in South Australia. It'll 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:44.040 pretty much be the same when it comes to Queensland 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.160 unless those Green seats start moving around and there are 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.480 three of those available. A deterioration in the vote in 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:55.000 New South Wales will deliver theoretically based on the mats 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.600 places like Benelong or Gilmore, so there'd be a couple 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.800 that would be moving up there. Potentially in Tasmania that 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:03.800 seat of Lions, but we'll all wait and see what 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:07.040 happens there. But if the Labor vote is down five, 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.240 the LIB vote is up to, the one Nation vote 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.120 is up to in Victoria, well we could be talking 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:15.640 about maybe four seats on a bad night, five on 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.199 a really bad night six. But of course the government 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.080 would be saying that these are March numbers and everything 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.120 got better for us. So maybe they hold the line 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:28.120 and only lose four seats or three seats. Anything better 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:31.400 than that would be certainly close to an overperformance compared 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:32.880 to where the Labour Party has been for the past 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.640 few years because of what is happening in Victoria. So 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.760 watch this space. This is the week when we are 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.040 going to start to learn just how many candidates are 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.240 on all of the ballots right around the country, because 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:47.080 after the rolls close, and I believe that happens tomorrow, 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:51.520 then the candidates lock off. Now that's generally speaking, when 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.320 someone tries to drop some bad news, particularly against one nation. 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.839 That's what happens at multiple elections. They're not able to 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.840 drop their candidates or to move them. But barring that 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.840 one nation in a pretty interesting position. Look for some 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.360 conversations about that. We should also start to get a 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.000 bit of a sense this week, definitely next week, but 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:12.320 probably this week about preferences. Does Labor put the Greens 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.080 last anywhere? Do they put them second everywhere like they 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.760 normally do? What does it mean when the Liberal Party 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.240 turns around and puts the Greens last, meaning they could 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.840 help Labor in a two way contest between Labor and 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:28.000 the Greens, a couple of seats in Victoria, maybe some 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.920 of the suburban fringes in Brisbane. So ironically, by taking 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.160 the principal stance against the Greens, the Libs could end 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.080 up in a scenario where Labour's going to save a 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.920 couple of seats and while there's no grand difference in 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:41.680 the way they're going to vote between a Green and 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.440 the Labor Party, when Labour's talking about majority versus minority 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.120 as the most likely game that we're playing right now, 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.040 preferences are going to matter in the next little while. 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.680 Now let's talk about blokes, because one thing that has 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.920 apparently changed over the past few weeks and certainly over 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.920 the past few years is the difference in the sex 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.480 between men and women and which way they are going 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.160 to vote. Now, there was a very weird little headline 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:09.320 on this that isn't necessarily what's inside the numbers. The 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.840 Dad vote crucial to Labour's polling rebound. But let's have 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.560 a look at the polling rebound that has been put 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.680 in place now. According to this the Labor vote with 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.040 blokes has gone from twenty five percent to twenty nine percent, 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.920 the Liberal vote's gone from forty two to thirty eight, 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.520 the female vote has gone from twenty seven to twenty nine, 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:31.200 and the Liberal vote has gone from thirty four to 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.360 thirty six. So the headline is the dad vote. Well 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.480 what about the subheadline of women that the female vote 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.000 has gone up by two points for the Liberal Party 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.240 in the polling that has taken place. Now again they've 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.360 done this to March. We know there has been a 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.680 change in the past couple of weeks. Again that one 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.480 nation number. Have a look at the change. Have a 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:52.480 look at the Green's number. They are down two points 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.720 with women that vote again being split in an increase 0:15:56.000 --> 0:16:00.600 between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party the Independence. Interestingly, 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.240 at the start of the year they were going okay, 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:07.320 they're now ever so slightly back when it comes to 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.360 blokes right now, So pay attention, it's all there. We'll 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.280 break it all down with these two blokes, the guys 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.480 who of course we talk to each and every week 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:16.040 when it comes to the state of the race. None 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.720 of them Cos Samarus from the Redbridge Research Organization and 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.800 with Michael Kroger, of course, a legend of the Liberal 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.080 Party in Victoria. Gentlemen, Hello, lots to get to, lots 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.560 of data, lots to dive through. Let us deal with 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:32.320 the obvious first, which is the headline. First, Michael, we 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:36.120 know things have been getting worse for the coalition or 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.560 there I say better for labor. But now we go 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:42.040 from a Liberal Party lead in newspoll to a trail. 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:44.520 Now you've still got a month to go. Those who 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.160 say election over have never been through an election before. 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.680 But your thoughts on News poll first, and then we'll 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:51.840 go through all of the permutations we normally do on 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:52.440 a Sunday night. 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:56.920 Yeah, mate, I remember at the twenty two campaign when 0:16:56.960 --> 0:17:00.480 Albow couldn't name the unemployment rate, people rushed up and said, oh, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:01.280 it's finished, it's over. 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:02.120 Morrison's won. 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.600 I said, oh, there's a long way to go, and 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.080 so it is with this this four four weeks to go. 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.399 We've done one week, so there's a long way to go. 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:13.240 I looked at this, I look at the News poll 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.439 this way. For a long time people were asked the question. 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:18.600 Peter Dutt was in front of the poles, people were 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:20.760 asked the following question basic, which is do you think 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.880 the Albanezi government's any good or not on a whole 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.199 range of issues that we know about. And the basic 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.159 view of people from the Voice onwards was he's not 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.679 very good, he's not very strong, and it's a terrible 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:35.360 government and that reflected in the polls. Now they're considering 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.040 a different question, which is about the fact that you know, 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:40.080 people think, oh, hang on, didn't I just put this 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.960 bloke into office. He's only been there five minutes, which 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.680 is the perennial question that first of my positions get, 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.320 which is, but we haven't given this bloke much of 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:53.160 a go So the electorate to generis they give nearly 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.040 every prime minister two goes. They haven't gave gos GoF 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.359 Whitlam two goes in nineteen seventy four, which was really 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:03.240 you know, General SolV them. So the trick for the coalition, 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:05.680 the campaign's skill for the coalition and the next four 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.720 works is to remind people why over the last eighteen 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:12.000 months they basically thought this goverment was no good. And 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:14.639 you've seen some negative ads starting today in Victoria and 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:16.919 federally very good ads pointing out to people hang on, 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.600 this blow promised, the earth is delivered hell and it's 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.879 time to vote him out. So, as I said, I 0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:25.840 think that pole, I think the pole reflects people thinking, well, 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:26.960 hang on, we've just put. 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:27.359 This bloke in. 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:29.480 They have to be convinced to put him out, and 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.040 I think they will ultimately. 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:32.960 Because on the primary, if we're looking at a scenario 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.600 where nothing has changed, this is nationally. Nothing has changed 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.000 for Labor, nothing's changed for the Greens, nothing's changed for 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.520 the coalition. The only other change is the one nation 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:43.800 factor that I always talk about because it keeps turning 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:47.000 up here and also the others. Again, your thoughts on 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.040 where we sit compared to your insights about the fact 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.879 that look, whatever they had lost they have now regained, 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:55.359 but they haven't gone forward on where they were in 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:57.040 twenty two that being the government. 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.880 All they've done is they've brought back the voters they 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:03.959 lost to minor parties over the last eight eight months. 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.000 The thing that we've been seeing with the Labor Party 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:11.000 is that it was losing support to minor parties, primarily women, 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.720 primarily women in their thirties and the outer suburbs of Regents. 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:18.600 They've brought them back really successful campaign they've been running 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:23.000 to a very deliberate campaign targeted these people to stabilize 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:26.680 their primary voter. So we can see that reflected in 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.520