Speaker 1: From the Skyinging Center. This is Paul Murray Live. All
Speaker 1: I may welcome into the man Cave, hardcore politics on
Speaker 1: a Sunday night, just the way we like it, piping
Speaker 1: hot piles and lots to fire up about this evening.
Speaker 1: In State of the Race, which we like to do
Speaker 1: each and every week, Cosamaras and man who's got the numbers,
Speaker 1: the man who's got the experience when it comes to politics,
Speaker 1: and other than the great Michael Kroger. Lee Hansen. Yes,
Speaker 1: Pauline's daughter running for the Senate. She's running against Jackie
Speaker 1: Lambi and Tasmania, so I'm more than happy to give
Speaker 1: her as much time on the air as possible. Also,
Speaker 1: what a week we have here on Sky News. On
Speaker 1: Tuesday night, seven point thirty in prime time, the Prime
Speaker 1: Minister versus the Alternative Prime Minister in the People's Forum,
Speaker 1: one hundred undecided voters in Western Sydney. We'll get their
Speaker 1: chance to ask whatever they want, not what the media
Speaker 1: has decided. The next day, again in primetime, Jim Chalmers
Speaker 1: versus Angus Taylor about the economy, and in the middle
Speaker 1: of the day via the National Press Club, a conversation
Speaker 1: about energy with blackout Bowen or the man who would
Speaker 1: like to send us into a nuclear age at some
Speaker 1: point in time. Ted O'Brien, three massive days, three debates,
Speaker 1: full coverage, each and every night here at nine o'clock,
Speaker 1: which is the same time on the East coast. Now
Speaker 1: that that daylight saving business has gone for the bin,
Speaker 1: I'm glad that you hear. There's an awful lot to
Speaker 1: get to tonight before I get to the polls. And
Speaker 1: yes they have strengthened in terms of the government, but
Speaker 1: as always, devil is in the detail. Let's have a look.
Speaker 1: Twenty seven days to go, or more importantly, just sixteen
Speaker 1: until the first votes will be cast in this election.
Speaker 1: More than half of four people expected to vote early.
Speaker 1: That's why it matters. That's why the first couple of
Speaker 1: weeks particularly matters. I do like how the Prime Minister
Speaker 1: keeps talking about trying to fend off American style politics
Speaker 1: and then has a Trump style rally, signs and awe
Speaker 1: in Brisbane today where unsurprisingly he had more of your
Speaker 1: money to spend.
Speaker 2: Today I announced that Labor will make batteries thirty percent
Speaker 2: cheaper for Australian homes, more businesses and community facilities that
Speaker 2: means saving around four thousand dollars on the cost of
Speaker 2: installing a tiberial battery, and it means slashing your power
Speaker 2: bills permanently.
Speaker 1: Where have we heard a version of this before? By
Speaker 1: the way, does he understand how offensive it is to
Speaker 1: stand in front of the national flag? Doesn't have a
Speaker 1: policy of standing in almost everything. But anyway, it's election
Speaker 1: time and Gido Mantrick, you're supposed to forget the past
Speaker 1: three years and their priorities about what symbols best represent
Speaker 1: our country because remember he's definitely not work As for
Speaker 1: the alternative Prime Minister, well he was all over the shop.
Speaker 1: But this weekend again at Tasmania. Spend a bit of
Speaker 1: time there, spend a bit of time in the Northern
Speaker 1: territory as well. His big announcement today at his election rally.
Speaker 1: The first of this campaign was to focus on cutting
Speaker 1: the number of students who are clogging up our immigration system.
Speaker 3: Our international student numbers are up by sixty five percent
Speaker 3: under this government over the last twelve month.
Speaker 4: We want to.
Speaker 3: Provide support to original universities and we put in place
Speaker 3: at cap which will be thirty thousand lower than what
Speaker 3: Labor has in place or eighty thousand, lower than what
Speaker 3: the numbers were just a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: Oh, the most popular segment on the program, certainly when
Speaker 1: it comes to people watching it, but not to my
Speaker 1: colleagues and friends in the wider media. This is about
Speaker 1: how the media spun it for labor this weekend, always
Speaker 1: the benefit of the doubt. These are the hard hitting
Speaker 1: questions that the Prime Minister copped this weekend from a
Speaker 1: press pack who have the feeling they're dealing with him
Speaker 1: for another three years and done when an upset the
Speaker 1: apple cart?
Speaker 5: What role do you think climate change is playing, if any,
Speaker 5: in exacerbating those impacts?
Speaker 2: A day after mayor thirdness, of course May the fourth behaved.
Speaker 6: What are you willing to do beyond what's already man
Speaker 6: back down under thousands of accounts affected at Brant and Australian.
Speaker 5: Super Have you been briefed on it?
Speaker 1: What's the government's respond As for the media traveling with
Speaker 1: the alternative Prime Minister, Well, I saw my own eyes
Speaker 1: when we were in Brisbane at our pub tests. They're
Speaker 1: not big fans of the alternative Prime Minister, so they
Speaker 1: love nothing but the hard questions for him. You see,
Speaker 1: if you keep him on defense, he can't get on
Speaker 1: an attack. And if he doesn't go on attack, then
Speaker 1: everything stays the way that it is and Albo gets
Speaker 1: another three years.
Speaker 7: Can you guarantee that Australians will know what waste and
Speaker 7: efficiency changes would be made for the election and will
Speaker 7: it be like doze and a surprise after the We.
Speaker 8: Have given few details, whether it is how your gas
Speaker 8: plan is going to get electricity bills down or how
Speaker 8: you're going to spend the health and education budgets. Why
Speaker 8: is there is delay on letting voters into the secret?
Speaker 1: Did the coalition government at the time blunder when it
Speaker 1: allowed the sale?
Speaker 7: Given that response from voters, in particular female voters, which
Speaker 7: the coalition is struggling to get attraction with, will you
Speaker 7: reconsider your policy?
Speaker 1: By the way, quick note to the people in charge
Speaker 1: of the Libook campaign. So that lady's standing behind Peter
Speaker 1: Dutton Senator, did you sent a nampaginper price. Let's get
Speaker 1: her front and center. She knows how to argue something
Speaker 1: from sixty forty yes, pulling it back to sixty forty zero.
Speaker 1: I want to see more from her in the next
Speaker 1: little while. She's an absolute powerhouse and anytime she wants
Speaker 1: to come on the show, she is more than welcome. Yes,
Speaker 1: of course. In the same way I did not care
Speaker 1: about the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I will
Speaker 1: not pretend that there was not an incident where the
Speaker 1: alternative Prime Minister was kicking the footy with a bunch
Speaker 1: of kids. The cameraman got too close and he got
Speaker 1: bandageges up as if it was some sort of a
Speaker 1: head wound from a sniper. I'm not sure why such
Speaker 1: an extensive amount of bandages were needed, but Jesus was
Speaker 1: a big over cell, wasn't it again. I'm sorry that
Speaker 1: somebody got hurt. That's the way that it is. But
Speaker 1: the idea that we needed to pretend that there was
Speaker 1: some sort of a gunshot wound a little much anyway.
Speaker 1: As you've seen many times, I didn't care when it
Speaker 1: was the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I don't
Speaker 1: care when it's Peter Don't accidentally kicking your footy to
Speaker 1: the cameraman. What I do care about is it of course,
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister lied, remember, went on radio and pretend no,
Speaker 1: I didn't fall off the stage. No attempt from that.
Speaker 1: When it comes to pet it up small things, but
Speaker 1: it is the way.
Speaker 4: That it is.
Speaker 1: By the way, I would like somebody to tell me
Speaker 1: why is there a double standard for when our leaders
Speaker 1: must turn up to natural disasters? You see, of course
Speaker 1: Anthony Buteze literally delayed the election, forced to budget all
Speaker 1: because he wanted to be seen to be part of everything.
Speaker 1: When it came to x tropical Cyclone Alfred in Queensland.
Speaker 1: He was even doing pointless press conferences just to somehow
Speaker 1: get in the middle of those news days when we
Speaker 1: were worried about what was going to be happening. There
Speaker 1: now an event that actually had more rain in certain
Speaker 1: parts than Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Are the floods that had
Speaker 1: been thumping, thumping central Queensland. Now the size of Texas
Speaker 1: is the amount of how much water and how much
Speaker 1: flood damage is around there. Well, the Prime Minister finally
Speaker 1: turned up, but it was a week a week after
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton was there. Now I thought we had to
Speaker 1: live in some sort of a scenario where the second
Speaker 1: even a hint of trouble is coming that the Prime
Speaker 1: Minister must be there. If not he is not caring. Well,
Speaker 1: I think that standard's ridiculous, But I also think turning
Speaker 1: up a week week after the event is taking place
Speaker 1: is well not good enough. But it didn't. He was
Speaker 1: there last Monday, and there was a couple of days
Speaker 1: after we had started talking about what was happening. But
Speaker 1: I'm glad that he was there and relatively quickly. Of course,
Speaker 1: the reality here is that because many of these people
Speaker 1: are good Queensland folk who probably aren't going to voe
Speaker 1: labor anytime in their life, and there's not enough population
Speaker 1: and there wasn't rolling television coverage were the Prime Minister
Speaker 1: just thought he could put it into the who cares basket,
Speaker 1: eventually turning up as he did. But my point is this,
Speaker 1: The tumbleweeds start rolling when it's a labor politician who's
Speaker 1: late to turn up to a flood or a fire,
Speaker 1: but if it's a Libs it's a sign that they
Speaker 1: don't care. Let's get to the polls. And the latest
Speaker 1: is striking when it comes to the change that a
Speaker 1: month has been in Australian politics. Literally the fifth of
Speaker 1: March is when we were talking about a headline that
Speaker 1: said that the Coalition was within striking distance of twenty
Speaker 1: key marginal seats. Tonight, the sixth of April News poll,
Speaker 1: Labor extends its pole lead over the coalition and is
Speaker 1: now edging towards a majority government, not the minority that
Speaker 1: everyone saw and was basically still the bookie's favorite. But
Speaker 1: now if they keep this growth up, they're able to
Speaker 1: improve themselves. Well guess what, there is a chance they
Speaker 1: could end up with seventy six seats or more. As
Speaker 1: for the primary vote, now, I'm going to compare this
Speaker 1: to the current primary vote which is up on the
Speaker 1: News poll site, and compare it to where it was
Speaker 1: at the last election. Labor Liberal Greens exactly the same
Speaker 1: vote as it was in the twenty twenty two election.
Speaker 1: So that was one of the lowest primary votes in
Speaker 1: Labor history. But clearly it was a bad night for
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party, losing a whole collection of seats. If
Speaker 1: that gets repeated, then again there's a level of status quo.
Speaker 1: But a couple of things worth noticing here, And I
Speaker 1: want people to start talking about one nation. Now. One
Speaker 1: nation got five percent at the last Fed election. It
Speaker 1: is now up two percent nationally one week into a
Speaker 1: federal election campaign. And that number is pretty significant that
Speaker 1: it is now up two points. Now they're going to say,
Speaker 1: a margin of era means two points up, two points down.
Speaker 1: But every poll relentlessly tells us that one nation is
Speaker 1: doing better than it did three years ago. And if
Speaker 1: this poll is right, there's no change for the Libs,
Speaker 1: the Nats or the Greens. The conversation becomes preferences, the
Speaker 1: preferences of one nation, the role of one nation getting
Speaker 1: extra Senate seats, the preferences of the other and independent vote. Now,
Speaker 1: the Palmer vote is not strong enough yet to know
Speaker 1: exactly which way it's going to go, but the suggestions
Speaker 1: are that I think four percent or something close to
Speaker 1: it at the last election. It's now around two the
Speaker 1: overall headline though, fifty two forty eight. That is after
Speaker 1: the first full week of campaigning. Now a lot of
Speaker 1: people are going to say that's it, game over. There's
Speaker 1: no way these things turn around. Well, they always turn around,
Speaker 1: as Peeder Gredlin very correctly showed you after the twenty
Speaker 1: ten election the twenty nineteen election, often fifty two to
Speaker 1: forty eight at the start ends up becoming fifty to
Speaker 1: fifty and then maybe ever so slightly fifty one forty nine.
Speaker 1: So this thing is not over. But we cannot pretend
Speaker 1: that the trend is not the Liberal Party's friend. Instead
Speaker 1: it is going okay for the Prime minister. Right now, however,
Speaker 1: let's actually start to drill down a little deeper, because
Speaker 1: you know, I like to have a look at this,
Speaker 1: which is Labour's primary vote in terms of key states,
Speaker 1: because it's not just that it's not an overall national election.
Speaker 1: It is one hundred and fifty one separate elections, and
Speaker 1: then of course there's the elections within the elections. Have
Speaker 1: a look at this now, I'm going to show you
Speaker 1: the primary vote from the last election. This was the
Speaker 1: national vote, the New so Wales vote, the Victoria vote,
Speaker 1: the Queensland vote, and the marginal seats. Okay, apparently nothing
Speaker 1: has changed according to news poll. But something has changed
Speaker 1: when it comes to the Resolve poll. Now, don't worry.
Speaker 1: You don't have to remember all of the colors and
Speaker 1: remember all of the numbers. I've done that for you.
Speaker 1: This is the latest one. Now, this one is polls
Speaker 1: that lead up to March. So if we're to believe
Speaker 1: the past four weeks, all of these poles have got
Speaker 1: better for Labor, all of them have got worse for
Speaker 1: the Libs. But only ever so slightly like one up,
Speaker 1: one down, but that's enough to start pushing you from
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty to forty one forty nine. And even
Speaker 1: if it becomes two points, that's where we end up
Speaker 1: with fifty two forty eight. But let me give you
Speaker 1: an idea here, and I'm sorry, I'm going to keep
Speaker 1: this graphic up for a little while because I need
Speaker 1: to use mc glasses to have a look here. Nationally,
Speaker 1: Labour Party down four points since the election. Labour Party
Speaker 1: down three points in New South Wales, Labor Party down
Speaker 1: five points in Victoria, Queensland down two points. The Libs
Speaker 1: up one point nationally, three in New South Wales, two
Speaker 1: in Victoria, down one in Queensland. The Green's basically the
Speaker 1: same or up one nationally and in New South Wales.
Speaker 1: Pay attention to one nation because they're up two points nationally,
Speaker 1: one point in New South Wales, two points in Victoria,
Speaker 1: five points in Queensland. That's really important for Malcolm Roberts
Speaker 1: who's going for his Senate spot. But as for the Independence,
Speaker 1: they're up every where, just one point in Queensland, four
Speaker 1: points in Victoria, six points in New South Wales and
Speaker 1: four points as well. So the picture here is essentially
Speaker 1: big enough drop for it to be significant when it
Speaker 1: comes to the Labor Party, where the vote is falling
Speaker 1: anywhere from two points in Queensland to four points nationally
Speaker 1: five points in Victoria. Now remember we talk a lot
Speaker 1: about Victoria because the failure of the local state government
Speaker 1: is really bleeding into a problem for the Labor brand.
Speaker 1: So while Labour might be able to hold on to
Speaker 1: most of what it's got, maybe three out of the
Speaker 1: four in Western Australia, it might be able to either
Speaker 1: lose one or pick one up in South Australia. It'll
Speaker 1: pretty much be the same when it comes to Queensland
Speaker 1: unless those Green seats start moving around and there are
Speaker 1: three of those available. A deterioration in the vote in
Speaker 1: New South Wales will deliver theoretically based on the mats
Speaker 1: places like Benelong or Gilmore, so there'd be a couple
Speaker 1: that would be moving up there. Potentially in Tasmania that
Speaker 1: seat of Lions, but we'll all wait and see what
Speaker 1: happens there. But if the Labor vote is down five,
Speaker 1: the LIB vote is up to, the one Nation vote
Speaker 1: is up to in Victoria, well we could be talking
Speaker 1: about maybe four seats on a bad night, five on
Speaker 1: a really bad night six. But of course the government
Speaker 1: would be saying that these are March numbers and everything
Speaker 1: got better for us. So maybe they hold the line
Speaker 1: and only lose four seats or three seats. Anything better
Speaker 1: than that would be certainly close to an overperformance compared
Speaker 1: to where the Labour Party has been for the past
Speaker 1: few years because of what is happening in Victoria. So
Speaker 1: watch this space. This is the week when we are
Speaker 1: going to start to learn just how many candidates are
Speaker 1: on all of the ballots right around the country, because
Speaker 1: after the rolls close, and I believe that happens tomorrow,
Speaker 1: then the candidates lock off. Now that's generally speaking, when
Speaker 1: someone tries to drop some bad news, particularly against one nation.
Speaker 1: That's what happens at multiple elections. They're not able to
Speaker 1: drop their candidates or to move them. But barring that
Speaker 1: one nation in a pretty interesting position. Look for some
Speaker 1: conversations about that. We should also start to get a
Speaker 1: bit of a sense this week, definitely next week, but
Speaker 1: probably this week about preferences. Does Labor put the Greens
Speaker 1: last anywhere? Do they put them second everywhere like they
Speaker 1: normally do? What does it mean when the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: turns around and puts the Greens last, meaning they could
Speaker 1: help Labor in a two way contest between Labor and
Speaker 1: the Greens, a couple of seats in Victoria, maybe some
Speaker 1: of the suburban fringes in Brisbane. So ironically, by taking
Speaker 1: the principal stance against the Greens, the Libs could end
Speaker 1: up in a scenario where Labour's going to save a
Speaker 1: couple of seats and while there's no grand difference in
Speaker 1: the way they're going to vote between a Green and
Speaker 1: the Labor Party, when Labour's talking about majority versus minority
Speaker 1: as the most likely game that we're playing right now,
Speaker 1: preferences are going to matter in the next little while.
Speaker 1: Now let's talk about blokes, because one thing that has
Speaker 1: apparently changed over the past few weeks and certainly over
Speaker 1: the past few years is the difference in the sex
Speaker 1: between men and women and which way they are going
Speaker 1: to vote. Now, there was a very weird little headline
Speaker 1: on this that isn't necessarily what's inside the numbers. The
Speaker 1: Dad vote crucial to Labour's polling rebound. But let's have
Speaker 1: a look at the polling rebound that has been put
Speaker 1: in place now. According to this the Labor vote with
Speaker 1: blokes has gone from twenty five percent to twenty nine percent,
Speaker 1: the Liberal vote's gone from forty two to thirty eight,
Speaker 1: the female vote has gone from twenty seven to twenty nine,
Speaker 1: and the Liberal vote has gone from thirty four to
Speaker 1: thirty six. So the headline is the dad vote. Well
Speaker 1: what about the subheadline of women that the female vote
Speaker 1: has gone up by two points for the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: in the polling that has taken place. Now again they've
Speaker 1: done this to March. We know there has been a
Speaker 1: change in the past couple of weeks. Again that one
Speaker 1: nation number. Have a look at the change. Have a
Speaker 1: look at the Green's number. They are down two points
Speaker 1: with women that vote again being split in an increase
Speaker 1: between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party the Independence. Interestingly,
Speaker 1: at the start of the year they were going okay,
Speaker 1: they're now ever so slightly back when it comes to
Speaker 1: blokes right now, So pay attention, it's all there. We'll
Speaker 1: break it all down with these two blokes, the guys
Speaker 1: who of course we talk to each and every week
Speaker 1: when it comes to the state of the race. None
Speaker 1: of them Cos Samarus from the Redbridge Research Organization and
Speaker 1: with Michael Kroger, of course, a legend of the Liberal
Speaker 1: Party in Victoria. Gentlemen, Hello, lots to get to, lots
Speaker 1: of data, lots to dive through. Let us deal with
Speaker 1: the obvious first, which is the headline. First, Michael, we
Speaker 1: know things have been getting worse for the coalition or
Speaker 1: there I say better for labor. But now we go
Speaker 1: from a Liberal Party lead in newspoll to a trail.
Speaker 1: Now you've still got a month to go. Those who
Speaker 1: say election over have never been through an election before.
Speaker 1: But your thoughts on News poll first, and then we'll
Speaker 1: go through all of the permutations we normally do on
Speaker 1: a Sunday night.
Speaker 9: Yeah, mate, I remember at the twenty two campaign when
Speaker 9: Albow couldn't name the unemployment rate, people rushed up and said, oh,
Speaker 9: it's finished, it's over.
Speaker 4: Morrison's won.
Speaker 9: I said, oh, there's a long way to go, and
Speaker 9: so it is with this this four four weeks to go.
Speaker 9: We've done one week, so there's a long way to go.
Speaker 9: I looked at this, I look at the News poll
Speaker 9: this way. For a long time people were asked the question.
Speaker 9: Peter Dutt was in front of the poles, people were
Speaker 9: asked the following question basic, which is do you think
Speaker 9: the Albanezi government's any good or not on a whole
Speaker 9: range of issues that we know about. And the basic
Speaker 9: view of people from the Voice onwards was he's not
Speaker 9: very good, he's not very strong, and it's a terrible
Speaker 9: government and that reflected in the polls. Now they're considering
Speaker 9: a different question, which is about the fact that you know,
Speaker 9: people think, oh, hang on, didn't I just put this
Speaker 9: bloke into office. He's only been there five minutes, which
Speaker 9: is the perennial question that first of my positions get,
Speaker 9: which is, but we haven't given this bloke much of
Speaker 9: a go So the electorate to generis they give nearly
Speaker 9: every prime minister two goes. They haven't gave gos GoF
Speaker 9: Whitlam two goes in nineteen seventy four, which was really
Speaker 9: you know, General SolV them. So the trick for the coalition,
Speaker 9: the campaign's skill for the coalition and the next four
Speaker 9: works is to remind people why over the last eighteen
Speaker 9: months they basically thought this goverment was no good. And
Speaker 9: you've seen some negative ads starting today in Victoria and
Speaker 9: federally very good ads pointing out to people hang on,
Speaker 9: this blow promised, the earth is delivered hell and it's
Speaker 9: time to vote him out. So, as I said, I
Speaker 9: think that pole, I think the pole reflects people thinking, well,
Speaker 9: hang on, we've just put.
Speaker 4: This bloke in.
Speaker 9: They have to be convinced to put him out, and
Speaker 9: I think they will ultimately.
Speaker 1: Because on the primary, if we're looking at a scenario
Speaker 1: where nothing has changed, this is nationally. Nothing has changed
Speaker 1: for Labor, nothing's changed for the Greens, nothing's changed for
Speaker 1: the coalition. The only other change is the one nation
Speaker 1: factor that I always talk about because it keeps turning
Speaker 1: up here and also the others. Again, your thoughts on
Speaker 1: where we sit compared to your insights about the fact
Speaker 1: that look, whatever they had lost they have now regained,
Speaker 1: but they haven't gone forward on where they were in
Speaker 1: twenty two that being the government.
Speaker 5: All they've done is they've brought back the voters they
Speaker 5: lost to minor parties over the last eight eight months.
Speaker 5: The thing that we've been seeing with the Labor Party
Speaker 5: is that it was losing support to minor parties, primarily women,
Speaker 5: primarily women in their thirties and the outer suburbs of Regents.
Speaker 5: They've brought them back really successful campaign they've been running
Speaker 5: to a very deliberate campaign targeted these people to stabilize
Speaker 5: their primary voter. So we can see that reflected in
Speaker 5: the News poll. We can see that reflected in our
Speaker 5: polling we published with the News Limited yesterday and other
Speaker 5: pulses as well. Flip side to that, the coalition. Okay,
Speaker 5: so in late twenty twenty two, UAPD registered pulses didn't
Speaker 5: really remove the question about UOP too, about I reckon
Speaker 5: the middle part of twenty twenty three, and you really
Speaker 5: didn't see the full effect of that removal until about
Speaker 5: the middle part of twenty twenty three. What happened about
Speaker 5: time coalition vote started to grow up into the forties,
Speaker 5: you know, and we well know commenting how they've been
Speaker 5: able to stabilize their base. Now that's a that's a com'
Speaker 5: that's really a The reason that happened was because UAP
Speaker 5: voters were choosing the coalition. Now that Clive is back
Speaker 5: in the race, three percent that he's picking up in
Speaker 5: the polls, it's come straight off the coalition. So the
Speaker 5: Coalition is now down to thirty six and so the
Speaker 5: two party preferred vote is favoring labor because of course,
Speaker 5: once you lose votes to minor parties, you don't get
Speaker 5: all of the back. So we are still dealing with
Speaker 5: a very fractured, volatile electorate and of course that's in
Speaker 5: them before we talk about Victoria.
Speaker 1: Well, thank you for previewing that. I will get to
Speaker 1: it in a second. I know you blokes are hanging
Speaker 1: on that because it is I mean again again, the
Speaker 1: national number, the preferred I mean, all of that stuff, right,
Speaker 1: You've got to dig down, You've got to dig down,
Speaker 1: and that is where these blokes are. But I just
Speaker 1: want to ask again because I am quite fascinated, and
Speaker 1: Pauline's a friend, and we've had One Nation on plenty
Speaker 1: and James Ashburn I've got Leon a little bit later, right.
Speaker 1: I think One Nation's offering in twenty five very different
Speaker 1: than even where it was ten years ago, litt alone,
Speaker 1: the twenty years ago, littlone, all the way back to
Speaker 1: the nineties. Because when somebody puts their hand up in
Speaker 1: a focus group or in one of these groups and says,
Speaker 1: you know what I'm thinking about one nation, there's a
Speaker 1: caricature of the one nation voter. But we also know
Speaker 1: that there is this change, particularly around younger blokes and
Speaker 1: younger blokes wanting to be a little bit harder. Have
Speaker 1: you seen described to me again, have you seen any
Speaker 1: change in the person who puts their hand up to
Speaker 1: say one nation? Because that's why I keep talking about this,
Speaker 1: that if we talk about young blokes and where they
Speaker 1: might be going, I think a portion, a slice, a
Speaker 1: little somewhere is going to one nation. That's right.
Speaker 5: And so if we look at who's likely to go
Speaker 5: and vote for minor parties, whether it's the liberal side
Speaker 5: or the labor side, losing votes to minor parties, overwhelmingly
Speaker 5: the people that are under the age of forty five.
Speaker 5: So if they're leaving the coalition to go and vote
Speaker 5: for one nation, they're most likely, not exclusively, but most
Speaker 5: likely to be millennials and gen z in the outer
Speaker 5: suburbs and regions. And this is exactly what's going on
Speaker 5: with the coalition's primary vote at the moment. They're losing
Speaker 5: these voters if historically got no allegiances to the l
Speaker 5: ANDP flip side. Of course, the same applies to Labor.
Speaker 5: You know, they've got a whole bunch of young voters
Speaker 5: sitting on their pile that equally don't have any law
Speaker 5: to them. And this is how volatile this next generation
Speaker 5: is going to be. And why you know, in twenty
Speaker 5: ten we had eighty odd seats go to preferences. In
Speaker 5: twenty twenty two we had over a hundre and thirty.
Speaker 5: This election is going to be over one hundred and
Speaker 5: forty and driving that is of course the growth of
Speaker 5: this generation. Right, So twenty ten there's only like fifteen
Speaker 5: percent of the voter's roll. They're now up to forty
Speaker 5: three percent.
Speaker 1: And basically, I mean there's a sort of the fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty line, which means we start digging into I
Speaker 1: do love. By the way, look you know nineteen seventy
Speaker 1: eight Gen X, right, proudly gen X. But and now
Speaker 1: you've got people sort of my age trying to pretend
Speaker 1: that they're cusps. Millennials don't know, Be proud of what
Speaker 1: you are, all right, Where the line is, that's just
Speaker 1: what you don't get. It's not a star sign with
Speaker 1: cancer with Leo rising. You just are what you are,
Speaker 1: right and X is where we are. But basically, if
Speaker 1: you wanted to put a meat cleaver at the fifty
Speaker 1: percent zone of the electoral role. It's fifty now basically
Speaker 1: equal above fifty, equal below. Demographically, yes, the more millennial,
Speaker 1: but I'm just saying that number there, right, so those
Speaker 1: who sit wherever you sit, that's the halfway point. Michael. Also,
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to think about, you know, apart from
Speaker 1: policy reasons, the type of things where again a younger
Speaker 1: bloke might end up in a one nation. Those cartoons
Speaker 1: have been amazing for years, right, Like they take the proverbial.
Speaker 1: They've been going for years. I think, if possible, they
Speaker 1: should be used a lot more as ads during a
Speaker 1: campaign because at least they're taking the proverbial. But also
Speaker 1: I remember that conversation that I always bang on about,
Speaker 1: which was the night before the twenty nineteen election, where
Speaker 1: we were talking about preference and preference discipline. Right now,
Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson is one hundred percent out there saying I
Speaker 1: can't stand Albo. She's out there saying don't vote Labor.
Speaker 1: Their game, generally when it comes to how to vote,
Speaker 1: is just to say, look one for us, and then
Speaker 1: you do what you want after your preferences are you're right,
Speaker 1: But what's the mathematical game you play when you see
Speaker 1: that one nation number. Do you just take the fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty aud you say it's a bit more sixty forty.
Speaker 1: What's your sense of that, because again I know it's
Speaker 1: fractions of fractions, but that's the game.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So invariably it's fifty fifty to fifty five forty
Speaker 9: five sixty forty depending on the election. It also depends
Speaker 9: on the state eight and it also depends on whether
Speaker 9: one notion handing and had to vote cards. They tend
Speaker 9: to hand out more how to vote cards in Queensland
Speaker 9: than they do elsewhere where, I mean trade for example,
Speaker 9: Trumpet of Patriots will hand out probably know how to
Speaker 9: vote cards and the overwhelming majority of seats in this country,
Speaker 9: so their preferences spray. The voter is probably a conservative voter,
Speaker 9: but without a direction, they tend to spray their their votes.
Speaker 1: So and the advertising's all over the shop. He's not
Speaker 1: doing it, he's not doing well what he did to Shorten.
Speaker 9: Yeah, no, no, no, that's absolutely correct. I'm not quite sure
Speaker 9: what he's on about, but he's not about something. Be
Speaker 9: kind of your fellow Australian and all that stuff. But
Speaker 9: they tend to be taking votes off the Liberal Party
Speaker 9: and for everyone vote, you only get half a bit
Speaker 9: more than half back, So that's the calculation. It's damaging
Speaker 9: to the coalition side, which is why the Coachline when
Speaker 9: it's best is a center right party, not a right
Speaker 9: party or a center party.
Speaker 4: It's a center right party. How it taught us that
Speaker 4: over the decade.
Speaker 9: So you have to you have to and that's why
Speaker 9: Turnable didn't do any well because he couldn't keep the right.
Speaker 4: He could keep the center, but not the right.
Speaker 9: So you have to have policies which are across that sweep.
Speaker 9: But as I said, the main issue with these minor
Speaker 9: parties on the right is they don't don't hand out
Speaker 9: how to vote cards, and if they did, you'd probably
Speaker 9: find them preferencing the Liberal party. Liberal Democrats tend to
Speaker 9: hand out and they preference us, but those that don't
Speaker 9: the vote sprand that damages us.
Speaker 1: This is also the factor with the teals right is
Speaker 1: that if they're able to get so generally speaking, the
Speaker 1: way that works with the major party is that the
Speaker 1: hardcore seats that you know you're going to win, you'd
Speaker 1: have a couple of hundred members that might move from
Speaker 1: that side of town over to the side of town.
Speaker 1: That's a little bit more of a fight, right, That's
Speaker 1: how you end up physically with the people who can
Speaker 1: stand there. And now that we've got three weeks of
Speaker 1: early voting, that they're at all of those centers all
Speaker 1: of those days. The membership makeup of things like one
Speaker 1: Nation isn't physically big enough to do that. And because
Speaker 1: they don't have, say, the lower House representation, you don't
Speaker 1: get people moving from the safe seat to the vulnerable seat.
Speaker 1: In previous elections, Palmer has been able to find people
Speaker 1: that are willing to do it. But obviously when it
Speaker 1: comes to the teals, if you've got people coming from
Speaker 1: hardcore places that are safe and they're not involved, it
Speaker 1: ends up making it look like they've got thousands of
Speaker 1: volunteers in each and every one of these local seats.
Speaker 1: That's part of the game that they play. It's part
Speaker 1: of why they look sometimes a little more popular than
Speaker 1: they actually end up being. But also if every second
Speaker 1: house has got one up, got a poster up, then
Speaker 1: you start to think, well, that's the way everyone's going.
Speaker 1: These are the little mind games that play. All right, lads,
Speaker 1: you mentioned Victoria, I'll give you what you want. A
Speaker 1: nice juicy chat about Victoria. AD has just dropped by
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party, and I'm going to say great, good
Speaker 1: attack Ads. It's just surprising that it's a week in.
Speaker 1: But they are hammering home what we know in the polls,
Speaker 1: which is that the Allen government is a massive problem
Speaker 1: for the labor vote. And alban EASi he's part of
Speaker 1: that Liberal camp which will be rolling out on television,
Speaker 1: not just online.
Speaker 6: Albo and Allen are double trouble for Victoria. Labour's budget
Speaker 6: shows ten years of deficits and Victoria has the worst
Speaker 6: debt of any state. Victorians are paying more for mortgages
Speaker 6: and the biggest rent rises in over a decade. Crime
Speaker 6: is at an all time high, and both labor governments
Speaker 6: cut funding for Victorian roads. Don't double down on failure.
Speaker 6: We can't afford three more years of labor.
Speaker 1: Pretty good, Pretty good, cause does it hit where they
Speaker 1: need to hit, which is to say they are one
Speaker 1: and the same.
Speaker 5: Yeah, pretty close. I mean they'll put that on their
Speaker 5: bunting and their sideage. Right, And we've got some numbers
Speaker 5: coming up this fuck with this coming week in news
Speaker 5: limited that will probably suggest to tech campaigns well researched
Speaker 5: too so yes, it is a problem for Labor and Victoria.
Speaker 5: And I know there's a lot of optimism going around
Speaker 5: the Labor limit at the moment, but I would caution
Speaker 5: those individuals and to think long and hard about what
Speaker 5: actually is going to happen in the start of Victoria.
Speaker 5: And I do think some elements of the press gallery
Speaker 5: in Canberra got a bit of a blind spot about
Speaker 5: or really how bad it is for the Lobal brand
Speaker 5: and Victoria.
Speaker 1: I refuse to believe that they're the most plugged in
Speaker 1: people in the entire compan They noted the mood of
Speaker 1: the suburbs. I mean, I've seen them with my own eyes,
Speaker 1: the way they just connect with the average Australia, and
Speaker 1: I just yeah, I've got one hundred percent. Look, here's
Speaker 1: the thing, Michael, that ad you've seen plenty. What do
Speaker 1: you like about it? What do you feel nervous about it?
Speaker 1: Is it offensive to Essendon supporters? No doubt somebody will say,
Speaker 1: with the exclusivity of red and black, what's your thoughts?
Speaker 9: It's a very good ad, you know. Our of course,
Speaker 9: to remind people didn't appear with just In A. Allen
Speaker 9: when he came to Victoria last week. He appeared with
Speaker 9: the Western Australian premier in the South Australian Labor premier.
Speaker 9: Do you labor premiers came here, didn't appear with just
Speaker 9: Indy because she was busy in Parliament or some.
Speaker 4: Other lame excuse.
Speaker 9: He's got appear with Allen in Victoria sooner or later,
Speaker 9: because it's just going to be more and more obvious
Speaker 9: to people that he's disassociating, disassociating himself from the Labor
Speaker 9: brand of Victoria, the Liberal Parties reminding everybody of the
Speaker 9: association whether the Labor appears physically, whether they appear physically
Speaker 9: together or not.
Speaker 4: So it's a very good ad.
Speaker 9: I might also add this though, when you look at
Speaker 9: the polls we've just discussed. The Labor primary vote in
Speaker 9: Victoria's down around six percent. It looks like now not
Speaker 9: all of that will go directly to the Liberal Parties.
Speaker 9: We saw in the word Rebi election there primary vote
Speaker 9: was down more than sixteen percent and ours was up
Speaker 9: only three and a half. So you can't say all
Speaker 9: of that'll come to us. But if you're down six
Speaker 9: percent in Victoria, you've got to be up somewhere else
Speaker 9: in the rest of Australia. So you know, I don't
Speaker 9: accept that Labour's primary voting Victoria is thirty three or
Speaker 9: thirty two.
Speaker 4: Or three one below.
Speaker 9: It's below thirty and that means the Liberal Party probably
Speaker 9: wins four. And there's a whole lot more Bruce, you know,
Speaker 9: me McNamara and Hawk and Dankly, we've discussed Victoria could
Speaker 9: be a wipeout for Labor.
Speaker 4: It could be a wipeout for Labor.
Speaker 9: Elbow nothing has done nothing so far to stem that bleeding.
Speaker 9: For as long as he does not appear with just Cendra,
Speaker 9: Allen is just going to remind everybody as to how
Speaker 9: toxic she is and how toxic the Labor brand is
Speaker 9: in Victoria.
Speaker 1: Incidentally, you know, because the I always talk about the
Speaker 1: ugur boogerads, right, the black and white and the scary
Speaker 1: music and all the reds, all the versions of it
Speaker 1: that exist. What are you blokes seeing in Victoria about
Speaker 1: how negative the ads are? Obviously that's a pretty hard
Speaker 1: one and the Libs should run that because there's the
Speaker 1: Polly and the research that's the case. But is the
Speaker 1: black and white speaking music about Peter Dutton being deployed
Speaker 1: by Labor on maths. I know you blokes, you know
Speaker 1: like me, spend too much time in the nerdy end
Speaker 1: of politics. But if you happen to turn on you know,
Speaker 1: FM radio, what's the sort of stuff you hear from
Speaker 1: Labor Because.
Speaker 5: Yeah, look I would say about negative advertising and how
Speaker 5: it bounces with that millennial gen Z generation, right seeing Victoria,
Speaker 5: particularly in Melbourne, they close to fifty percent of the
Speaker 5: voters roll and they really hate the Jopoli, right, they
Speaker 5: really hate the jobs and so they you know, at
Speaker 5: the moment, I'm looking to vote for someone other than
Speaker 5: the Labor Party, There's no question about that. And we
Speaker 5: saw that in Worry. But you know, they just sprayed everywhere.
Speaker 5: Now that's going to be less of a problem for
Speaker 5: the coalition in seats where the coalitions vote is naturally high.
Speaker 5: So seat like Chisholm where the Liberal primaries are like
Speaker 5: close to forty just naturally and they can just pick
Speaker 5: up three or four percent every one. Seat. Where it's
Speaker 5: going to be problem for them is in a seat
Speaker 5: like Hawk for example, where their primary naturally is in
Speaker 5: the high twenties. Labor could drop six seven percent. It
Speaker 5: will spray everywhere and it won't be still enough. So
Speaker 5: I think on a bad day, Labour still loses enough
Speaker 5: seats to plunge Elbow into minority government. That's if, of course,
Speaker 5: Dutton doesn't make any gains in any other part of
Speaker 5: the country. Really bad day, people just wake up that
Speaker 5: morning when they're voting, whether they're voting early or whether
Speaker 5: they're voting on the day or election day, and just go,
Speaker 5: you know what, I'm going to see a very strong message.
Speaker 5: And this is where the negative campaign and that ad
Speaker 5: is actually aimed at, and that is to basically just
Speaker 5: keep people's attention focused on an unpopular state Labor government.
Speaker 5: If they are thinking about that government they're voting, they
Speaker 5: will deliver more seats to the Coalition than we are discussing.
Speaker 5: If they are thinking about Dutton, and let's say that
Speaker 5: Labor campaigns worked, the negative campaign gets done, then that
Speaker 5: will be down to about three seats instead. So this
Speaker 5: is the contest we're in.
Speaker 1: That's what I love. I love it. It's into the detail,
Speaker 1: it's into the weeds, and it's exactly where we like
Speaker 1: to be. And of course, no doubt there'll be news
Speaker 1: every day between now and early voting, let alone full voting,
Speaker 1: which will be the disastrous decisions of that labor government.
Speaker 1: Remember in the lead up to this election, they want
Speaker 1: to let criminals back into the schools. But as long
Speaker 1: as I had an ankle, bracelet right. Do not underestimate
Speaker 1: this state government's ability to try to dig itself out
Speaker 1: of trouble, but only dig deeper, ironically to China. Quick
Speaker 1: break back with more here on Paul Murray Live, Loss
Speaker 1: to talk about more with these fellas and then can
Speaker 1: the door to do what the mum's done for a while,
Speaker 1: Lee Hanson, she's running for One Nation in Tasmania. Hardcore
Speaker 1: politics on a Sunday night, Thanks for watching, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much for watching. Started the race Sunday Night where
Speaker 1: we just get all hardcore about politics and we love
Speaker 1: every second of it. Don't forget what a week we've
Speaker 1: got to here, People's Forum Tuesday, Treasurers Wednesday, and then
Speaker 1: the battle around Blackout Bowen on Wednesday. That's ahead of
Speaker 1: well more pub tests, more fun that we're going to
Speaker 1: be having and must watch TV each and every night.
Speaker 1: The analysis starts five o'clock all the way through to
Speaker 1: reader at eleven. So thank you very much for watching
Speaker 1: us during this election. It is when we all come
Speaker 1: alive and we fire up as we do this evening
Speaker 1: with Michael Kroger, who is just very comfortable as the
Speaker 1: sort of daylight Savings Dane. He's just got the chill
Speaker 1: factory's got the puffa ja get ready to go because
Speaker 1: it's always twenty two degrees at his joint, always twenty
Speaker 1: two degrees of imagining there with red Bridge, and they've
Speaker 1: got more info as always coming in the papers in
Speaker 1: the next few days. Now, I want to talk to
Speaker 1: some degree about the gender stuff. Now, I was fascinated
Speaker 1: by this pull apart that was done by the nine newspapers.
Speaker 1: Now they put a pole out only last week, so
Speaker 1: the idea that they were comparing the male female vote
Speaker 1: to March when in other factors a little up, a
Speaker 1: little down. I'm surprised that they sort of held the
Speaker 1: number there. But again because your sense of these things
Speaker 1: are things as stark as we've seen in other poles
Speaker 1: at other times, where basically blokes leading to the right,
Speaker 1: women leaning to the left. But again, according to this analysis,
Speaker 1: the primary vote of the Liberal Party is higher than
Speaker 1: the primary vote of the Labor Party with women. And
Speaker 1: I thought they were the ones who had the problem right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Look, har can only on what the data we're
Speaker 5: seeing and data that I look at for a news
Speaker 5: poll and other pulses as well. It is definitely women
Speaker 5: who are who have moved, and they moved from the
Speaker 5: minor parties back to the Labor Party. The problem with
Speaker 5: you know, some of some of the ways some of
Speaker 5: these some of these poles are reported is it's as
Speaker 5: if we're still dealing with a two horse race. We're
Speaker 5: not right. And you know, whether these blokes moved or not,
Speaker 5: I can almost guarantee you if they have morthed, they
Speaker 5: didn't move to Labor, they would have moved to one
Speaker 5: nation or uop from from the Liberal Party. And that's
Speaker 5: that's the only thing that we're seeing that's actually hitting
Speaker 5: the Liberal Party in a very big way right now
Speaker 5: is attrition to its right flank. And that is all
Speaker 5: that's going on.
Speaker 1: Michael, again, this is this gender conversation, the politics in
Speaker 1: and around it. Certainly it's something that the deals play
Speaker 1: on hard. I mean, how do you start to if
Speaker 1: you notice a problem. Let me put it this way. Actually,
Speaker 1: if you notice a problem, set of numbers and there's
Speaker 1: just you can put a circle around over fifty fives.
Speaker 1: You know under forties men women sub How do we
Speaker 1: start to know as viewers that headquarters have noticed there's
Speaker 1: a problem and they're trying to corterize the wound.
Speaker 9: Well, you notice when they come up with specific policies
Speaker 9: directed towards a particular gendered group or community group or
Speaker 9: you know, ethnic group, that's when you know that they
Speaker 9: feel as a concern.
Speaker 4: I think a lot of this stuff is exaggerated.
Speaker 9: I don't know whe's trust this data because I think
Speaker 9: the sample sizes.
Speaker 4: Are are not huge.
Speaker 9: What do we know for certain, which is rich women
Speaker 9: are tending to vote teal or Green. The rich, inner city,
Speaker 9: college educated female vote is voting left. In other words,
Speaker 9: you know that working class men have in the Western
Speaker 9: world in the last decade moved to the right. The
Speaker 9: working class generally are moving to the right. Young people
Speaker 9: who were given, you know, benefits of having the university
Speaker 9: debts written off, blah blah blah blah blah, social activism, etc.
Speaker 9: Are tending to go to the left. There's a breakdown
Speaker 9: the two party system here Australia's case as identified, but
Speaker 9: not in America. Whereas we said the other day, ninety
Speaker 9: nine percent of people voted for either the Democrats or
Speaker 9: the Republicans. There are reasons for that, but largely the
Speaker 9: two party system is still at play there. So they're
Speaker 9: the things I know for certain. But these mine shifts
Speaker 9: from one pole to a next with small numbers I
Speaker 9: tend not to take a huge amount of notice of.
Speaker 9: I think most policies of the major parties directed towards
Speaker 9: the electorate as a whole, such as cost of living
Speaker 9: et cetera, et cetera, because that's where the votes all.
Speaker 1: Right, a couple of other ones before we're done here,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Josh Burns. Josh Burn's a Labor MP
Speaker 1: who we all expect to go in hard against the Greens.
Speaker 1: Why because, of course there are a significant number of
Speaker 1: Jewish voters. He too, I believe, is a Jewish man,
Speaker 1: and we all know the way the Greens have played
Speaker 1: the past couple of years. But he's done an interview
Speaker 1: over the weekend suggesting that he's going to add I
Speaker 1: quote hedges bitch bets when it comes to the Greens,
Speaker 1: which means the preference world where Labor should be putting
Speaker 1: them last. And maybe a door is going to be
Speaker 1: open here because if it ends up in a two
Speaker 1: way fight between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party
Speaker 1: for his seat, those Green preferences will matter. Now, Michael,
Speaker 1: you've been strong on this for the past couple of years.
Speaker 1: You've said this is one of those seats that's a
Speaker 1: littanus test. This week is probably when we start to
Speaker 1: get a bit of an idea about the how to
Speaker 1: votes that start to come out ahead of voting in
Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks time. What did you read
Speaker 1: into hedging his bets?
Speaker 9: Okay, so what's happening within the Labor Party is this.
Speaker 9: I'm sure Burns and his supporters would like to preference
Speaker 9: the Liberal Party ahead of the Greens, but Albo won't
Speaker 9: let him.
Speaker 4: That's what's happening here.
Speaker 9: Albo and Albo's henchmen have said, we can't preference Peter Dutton.
Speaker 4: You can have license to.
Speaker 9: Issue a fifty to fifty card. You know, if you
Speaker 9: want to vote liberal he's too liberal and he's too green.
Speaker 4: You make up the decision. Now.
Speaker 9: I think that's a disastrous decision by Labor. I know,
Speaker 9: Michael Danby, the previous member Labor in that seat, which
Speaker 9: is Melbourn. Port's tried on a couple of occasions to
Speaker 9: issue a vote to Liberal had to vote card and
Speaker 9: he was ticked off by head office on election day
Speaker 9: on at least one occasion. Burns saying he's going to
Speaker 9: do fifty to fifty is very damaging to him because
Speaker 9: he'll lose whatever Jewish voters he's got left if he's
Speaker 9: signed to say to Jewish voters the Dutton position on
Speaker 9: the Middle East and the Green's position on the Middle
Speaker 9: East are morally equivalent. That's what he's trying to tell
Speaker 9: Jewish voters and just other voters in Macnaum.
Speaker 4: That will enrage people.
Speaker 9: That is a gutlas's decision by this bloke and the
Speaker 9: Labor Party, and it's a stop.
Speaker 4: It's an insult to Jewish people.
Speaker 9: It's like, OK, there's a lot of Jews there, so
Speaker 9: we better pretend we're fifty to fifty there. But elsewhere
Speaker 9: in the country we're giving a second preface of the Greens.
Speaker 9: I mean that will do Labor a lot of damage.
Speaker 9: I think Burns is going to come third. He got
Speaker 9: thirty one point seven seven percent of the primary vote
Speaker 9: at the twenty two election. He's going to drop into
Speaker 9: the mid twenties. He's going to lose four or five
Speaker 9: percent primary vote from the Jewish vote. Labour's votes also down,
Speaker 9: you know, four or five percent. Add that together, he's
Speaker 9: probably down. He's probably down six percent.
Speaker 1: Because wouldn't there be that a perfect scenario that if
Speaker 1: Michael Danby wanted to run like the former Labor blow
Speaker 1: did in the seat of Paran at the state level,
Speaker 1: where you just say no, no, I want to come back
Speaker 1: around with this. I'm willing to stand up to get
Speaker 1: ten percent so I can throw that away from the
Speaker 1: people that are going to take this stand. That would
Speaker 1: put the seat well and truly in play.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, look, I've definitely put it now in the coffin
Speaker 5: of the incumbent laboring feet about that. I think what's
Speaker 5: going on a little let's be honest here. What's going
Speaker 5: on here is labor's stuck between a rock and a
Speaker 5: hard place. They know that a very significant portion of
Speaker 5: those planning to labor in other parts of let's say
Speaker 5: Melbourne and Brisbane for example, I do like the idea
Speaker 5: of a green minority labor government, right, and we've got
Speaker 5: we really start on the weekend for a news limited
Speaker 5: that actually showed that. And so they're worried about seats
Speaker 5: like Wills. They're obviously trying to grab the federal sy
Speaker 5: to Brisbane back and so they've got other geopolitical considerations
Speaker 5: to play here, and you know, the calculated decision as well.
Speaker 5: We'll give them as much of a leeway as we can,
Speaker 5: but at the end of the day, we've got an
Speaker 5: election to win. And you know, yes, okay, Josh would
Speaker 5: like to put the Green's last, but we're not gonna
Speaker 5: lead him because we want to win Wills. We want
Speaker 5: to win Brisbane, we want to win government.
Speaker 1: We'll stand by it. We'll see what happens. Thank you, lads.
Speaker 1: I do appreciate it. Well, you know, like a kid
Speaker 1: who's eating too much ice cream, I can't get enough.
Speaker 1: Bring in more. We'll talk to you guys again next
Speaker 1: week and we continue the conversation of politics. Source it
Speaker 1: all sprinkles too, drop a flake, got okay, the fact
Speaker 1: guy's getting away with them all right, moment or two's time.
Speaker 1: Lee Hanson, daughter of Pauline, she's running for parliament. We'll
Speaker 1: find out why next. I was fascinated to see a
Speaker 1: couple of days ago that Lee Hanson, the daughter of Pauline,
Speaker 1: is going to be running for the Senate, running for
Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson's One Nation at the upcoming federal election. She
Speaker 1: will be doing so in Tasmania. Now. One Nation's done
Speaker 1: pretty well there, but it hasn't been able to get
Speaker 1: a Senate seat for a while. Why the Lamby effect?
Speaker 1: But I reckon with a Hanson on the ballot, it
Speaker 1: might be about to change. She joins us now from
Speaker 1: our Hobart studio. Lee, good luck, congratulations and welcome to
Speaker 1: the fight.
Speaker 7: Thank you, Hi, Paul, how are you good?
Speaker 1: So you've seen what they've done near mum. You've seen
Speaker 1: how they put her through the ringer and you've gone yep,
Speaker 1: me too.
Speaker 7: Why Look, I've asked myself that good question. Mum for
Speaker 7: ten years or so now has been asking me to
Speaker 7: put my hand up and give it a go. And
Speaker 7: it hasn't been something of interest to me, purely because
Speaker 7: of what I went through as a child and seeing
Speaker 7: what she's been through the impact it's had on her
Speaker 7: and the family. But I suppose at the point now
Speaker 7: I'm a mother myself. I had two young children and
Speaker 7: unfortunately I am concerned about their future and I don't
Speaker 7: have confidence in the current politicians and the current system
Speaker 7: that I feel I actually need to put my hand up.
Speaker 5: It's time now over.
Speaker 1: I am again it's your candidacy and it's not about others.
Speaker 1: But I have to talk about the Lamby effect. Right
Speaker 1: where she's sat there for years and basically she's perfected
Speaker 1: this act of being, you know, the last one on
Speaker 1: the bandwagon to say that she's going to fight for
Speaker 1: this and fight for that. But then her own candidates
Speaker 1: at the state election, we'll open that they don't have
Speaker 1: any policies. Right, She's essentially saying, Look, it's up to
Speaker 1: everyone else to come up with ideas. I'll just pick
Speaker 1: the ones that people like or dislike. Why is that
Speaker 1: type of representation what Tasmania doesn't need more of?
Speaker 7: Look, the representation Tasmania needs is people that actually genuinely care.
Speaker 7: And that's what I have to offer, and that's what
Speaker 7: one nation has to offer. I've lived in Tasmania for
Speaker 7: over thirteen years. I married to Tasmanian. I'm raring my
Speaker 7: children in Tasmanian. I've been a community member of Tasmania
Speaker 7: for some time. And the fact that I care, the
Speaker 7: fact that I want to listen, the fact that I
Speaker 7: will be getting out there and understanding beyond my own experiences,
Speaker 7: and we have solid policies on offer from one Nation
Speaker 7: and Taylor making them or tailor make tailoring them to
Speaker 7: the Tasmania needs is what I have to offer, and
Speaker 7: that's the point of difference beyond any other candidate that's
Speaker 7: currently running.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about some of those ideas, certainly ones
Speaker 1: that I have seen heads at nodding at a barbecue.
Speaker 1: There's things like income splitting where if one person's at home,
Speaker 1: one person's working well, rather than paying the full amount
Speaker 1: of tax on the one wage, split it across two
Speaker 1: and surprisingly it starts to go down. What's the stuff
Speaker 1: that you think if people hear about they're going to
Speaker 1: connect to.
Speaker 7: Yeah. Look, one Nation has some really strong policy. So
Speaker 7: dual income splitting, as you said, can saved two to
Speaker 7: ten thousand dollars on average for families, which is great.
Speaker 7: We've also got removing the GST from building materials to
Speaker 7: promote more housing in the community, in affordable housing. Currently,
Speaker 7: I can't foresee that my children will ever own their
Speaker 7: own home and that is great concern for us within
Speaker 7: Tasmania as well as across Australia. Fuel excise was actually
Speaker 7: one nascent cut. Fuel excise was one Nation's policy, So
Speaker 7: that will help reduce the cost of living as well.
Speaker 7: Removing the bureaucracy, the nineteen billion dollar over bureacracy and
Speaker 7: governance span through siloed thinking in governant bodies as well,
Speaker 7: so we have a range of policy that will benefit Tasmania.
Speaker 7: I ask that people take a look on the One
Speaker 7: Nation website and I will be putting out those messages
Speaker 7: over the coming days and weeks as well.
Speaker 1: What's been the single most repetitive and annoying question you've
Speaker 1: been asked from Breakfast TV to this moment right now
Speaker 1: about candidacies. I've got to guess what it might be.
Speaker 1: But what's the one that you go, Okay, great, can
Speaker 1: we just get this one out of the way and
Speaker 1: then I'll run in my own right?
Speaker 7: Well, why I'm running once? What I've seen mum being
Speaker 7: through is a big one.
Speaker 5: Yeah. Good.
Speaker 1: When are you going to disagree with mum? What happens
Speaker 1: when you disagree with mum? Do you love that one?
Speaker 7: Yeah? Yeah, I've had that one, which is quite interesting.
Speaker 7: I mean, look, I offer a new generational view. I
Speaker 7: have debates with my mother all the time. I've had
Speaker 7: them with her my whole life.
Speaker 5: That's what mother.
Speaker 7: Daughter relationship or parent child relationships are, right, So that's
Speaker 7: not going to change. But that's how you push each
Speaker 7: other's thinking. And Mum respects my views, so I definitely
Speaker 7: get that one. But no, I I have some tremendous
Speaker 7: values and qualities that my mother has passed me, so
Speaker 7: I stand by her, and here I am as well.
Speaker 1: Absolutely stealing the spine a wonderful thing that hand from
Speaker 1: a parent to a kid and then they grow into
Speaker 1: their own and they stand on their own as you're
Speaker 1: going to do now. All right, socials, how do people
Speaker 1: stay in touch? How do people learn more about your candidacy?
Speaker 1: In the next of the wall?
Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely, look, have a look on the One Nation website.
Speaker 7: You'll find information about myself about my background. Please, I
Speaker 7: need help from my fellow Tasmanians. I can only help
Speaker 7: you if you help me. So I ask for as
Speaker 7: much the port as I can possibly get. I need
Speaker 7: to get signs up. I need to start hitting the
Speaker 7: road next couple of days. If anyone can put a
Speaker 7: sign up or help me on handing out how to
Speaker 7: vote cards and polling boots. Or volunteer. Please reach out
Speaker 7: to my email address, which is Lee dot Hanson at
Speaker 7: one Nation dot org dot au. Mum's coming back down
Speaker 7: to the state over the coming weeks and we're going
Speaker 7: to start coming around the state and speaking at venue,
Speaker 7: so watch out for those dates. Keep an eye out
Speaker 7: for the media releases as well.
Speaker 1: Good stuff. Thank you very much, Lee, All the best
Speaker 1: to you. Well, why are you going to get the
Speaker 1: word out? Is you welcome here anytime? All right? And
Speaker 1: we've got plenty of time between now and the election.
Speaker 1: All the best to your late Lee Hanson there running
Speaker 1: for One Nation in Tasmania. Fingers crossed. She's going to
Speaker 1: be an excellent addition to the Parliament. That's our show
Speaker 1: for tonight see tomorrow. Here's the Royal Report.