WEBVTT - Donald Trump is back

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<v Speaker 1>So I am at Howard University in the Washington, DC,

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<v Speaker 1>in amongst the sea of people at the election night

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<v Speaker 1>rally or Kamala Harris, and the atmosphere I have to

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<v Speaker 1>say is pretty tense. People.

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<v Speaker 2>As the US election began to rapidly slip away from

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<v Speaker 2>Kamala Harris, it became clear that she wasn't going to

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<v Speaker 2>go on stage and speak anytime soon, and people at

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<v Speaker 2>her election night rally began to drift away into the

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<v Speaker 2>Washington night.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about twenty minutes to midnight here Eastern time, and

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<v Speaker 1>people are starting to leave the Harris rally. The mood

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<v Speaker 1>is very subdued. It's become clear that it is a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult path ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>The optimism that filled the roomor had faded away. Doctor

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<v Speaker 2>Emma Shortess was there, but also didn't wait to see

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<v Speaker 2>if Harris would speak either. It turns out she didn't.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump spoke in Florida shortly after.

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<v Speaker 3>Look what happened is this get.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm delivered a result that defied most expectations, projected that

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<v Speaker 2>we're not just the presidency but the popular vote too.

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<v Speaker 3>Every single day, I will be fighting for you and

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<v Speaker 3>with every Brenner in my body. I will not rest

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<v Speaker 3>until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America

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<v Speaker 3>that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will

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<v Speaker 3>truly be the Golden age of America. That's what we

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<v Speaker 3>have to do.

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<v Speaker 2>It seems most Americans do, in fact want to go

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<v Speaker 2>back from sworts media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven

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<v Speaker 2>AM Today's senior research out the Australian Institute, Doctor Emma

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<v Speaker 2>Shortest on Trump's return to the White House. What all

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<v Speaker 2>means for the future of the Democratic Party and democracy itself.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Thursday, November seven, Emma suredus. Thanks for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>You just come from what should be a joyous moment

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<v Speaker 2>for the Harris camp. You were there for most of

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<v Speaker 2>the evening, so you were tracking progress as the results

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<v Speaker 2>were coming in in real time. What was the first

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<v Speaker 2>big shock of the day from your perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a good question. Down I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 1>there was one particular big shock for me. I think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it sort of became clear over the course

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<v Speaker 1>of the night that turnout wasn't going to be as

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<v Speaker 1>good for Harris as people had initially thought. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the moment for me came a little bit later, when

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<v Speaker 1>you know, things were becoming more and more subdued as

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<v Speaker 1>it was becoming clear how close it was, and CNN

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<v Speaker 1>called California for Harris, which you know, of course it's

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<v Speaker 1>no surprise at all that California would go Democratic, but

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<v Speaker 1>the cheer that greeted that call, the kind of desperation

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<v Speaker 1>in that Chia was probably the moment where I really confronted,

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose where it was heading. And I think at

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<v Speaker 1>that moment had that effect on quite a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people there too.

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<v Speaker 2>And how did it play out throughout the night some

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<v Speaker 2>of those key swing states like North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada.

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<v Speaker 2>What was the feeling when, say, somewhere like North Carolina

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<v Speaker 2>was announced.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it was pretty bleak. You know, Initially it looked,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in Pennsylvania, like turnout was going to be really significant,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, much higher than twenty twenty. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people there and in the media as well,

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<v Speaker 1>took that as a sign that, you know, Pennsylvania was

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<v Speaker 1>on track for Harris. But across the course of the night,

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<v Speaker 1>it became clear that that wasn't the case at all

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<v Speaker 1>of America.

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<v Speaker 4>As the foreign President Trump is closing in with just

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<v Speaker 4>a few electors, all votes away now from clinching to

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<v Speaker 4>seventy as Pennsylvania is called for Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>So that kind of gradual realization, you know, you could

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<v Speaker 1>see that dawning on people across the evening. And then, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there were some audible groans when North Carolina was called.

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<v Speaker 5>Former President Donald Trump will win the state of North Carolina.

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<v Speaker 5>This has been a contested state. Vice President Harris went

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<v Speaker 5>there many many times.

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<v Speaker 1>And Georgia was called after a lot of people had left.

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<v Speaker 1>So people started streaming out a sort of about eleven

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<v Speaker 1>eleven thirty, So a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>Of this was a shock to people in the room.

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<v Speaker 2>Was it a shock to you, Emma.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was, Dan, You know, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>polls have been so close for so long as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>but American politics has felt so scrambled, particularly in the

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<v Speaker 1>last year or so, and Donald Trump has so upset

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<v Speaker 1>our political instincts that I honestly just didn't know, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't read it which way it was going to go.

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<v Speaker 1>So it is it's almost a shock that the polls

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<v Speaker 1>appear to have been correct. I was talking to a

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<v Speaker 1>colleague in Philadelphia and we were discussing the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>it felt equally possible that it would be this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of result, you know, this kind of close result, or

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it could be a nineteen eighty level landslide,

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<v Speaker 1>like a Reagan versus Jimmy Carter kind of landslide. Both

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<v Speaker 1>of those things felt equally possible, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>worth keeping that in mind. You know, the zone will

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<v Speaker 1>be flooded with a lot of certainty in the next

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<v Speaker 1>week or so about what's happened and why it's happened

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<v Speaker 1>and what it means. And I think we should be

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<v Speaker 1>really cautious about, you know, how effectively we can untangle

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<v Speaker 1>the knot of American politics.

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<v Speaker 2>After the break. What lessons will Democrats take from their loss, Emma,

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<v Speaker 2>when we look at this selection, how does it compare

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<v Speaker 2>to twenty sixteen, Because that was a shock result that

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<v Speaker 2>everyone will remember, and no doubt everyone will remember tonight

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<v Speaker 2>as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Well. Look, I think maybe Dan, you know, twenty sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>was more of a shock because there was such certainty

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<v Speaker 1>that Clinton was going to win, that she was a

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<v Speaker 1>shoe in. What this shows is that the long and

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<v Speaker 1>deep structural divides of American politics that Trump capitalized on

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<v Speaker 1>so effectively in twenty sixteen are still there. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>he can still capitalize on them and do it incredibly effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, of course a lot will be made

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<v Speaker 1>about the economy and the state of the economy and

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<v Speaker 1>how much that helped Trump, and of course that's true,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's those long divisions and the failure or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>that's too harsh a word to ask Biden to kind

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<v Speaker 1>of heal all of those divisions, But the inability of

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<v Speaker 1>the Biden administration to really address those structural issues is

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<v Speaker 1>what has helped Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump has been very effective at speaking to people's grievances.

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<v Speaker 2>Why do you think the Democrats have failed to speak

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<v Speaker 2>to those same grievances?

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<v Speaker 1>I think that partly what has happened is that Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>haven't been able to account for their complicity, I think

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<v Speaker 1>in the erosion of American economic life. You know, they

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<v Speaker 1>haven't been able to account for Bill Clinton's role in

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<v Speaker 1>implementing free trade agreements and dramatically restructuring the American economy

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<v Speaker 1>away from kind of domestic based manufacturing. Democrats just haven't

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<v Speaker 1>had an answer for that. But we also just can't

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<v Speaker 1>underestimate the structural racism of American politics. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>just can't escape that foundational fact of American history, and

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<v Speaker 1>that structural racism is what drives so much of Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's bass grievance.

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<v Speaker 2>So in relation to the campaign itself, Harris had to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, outperform Trump in almost every sense, in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of spend, in terms of her reach, in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>her energy. Did she underperform or did Donald Trump overperform?

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<v Speaker 2>Because it seems like there was a high voter turnout.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's something we can comfortably say.

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<v Speaker 1>I think I would say that Trump has overperformed. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>his campaign strategy was to mobilize men in particular. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>he's engaging with figures like Elon Musk as why he's

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<v Speaker 1>going on Joe Rogan's podcast, and it appears at least

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, he's reached that audience of men and

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<v Speaker 1>young men and mobilize them.

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<v Speaker 3>We also have a Mandina White who has done some.

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<v Speaker 6>I want to thank some people real quick. I want

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<v Speaker 6>to bet then boys Aiden Ross, theo Vaughan bottom with

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<v Speaker 6>the boys and laughed, but not least the mighty and

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<v Speaker 6>powerful Joe Rogan.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think there's an argument to be made that

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<v Speaker 1>he overperformed there and likely a similar argument that Harris

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<v Speaker 1>has underperformed. But then I think, you know, we can

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<v Speaker 1>also look at more specific issues like Michigan, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a critical swing state where voters there had

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<v Speaker 1>sent clear messages to Democrats about their devastation at the

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<v Speaker 1>United States role in the world and particularly the Biden

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<v Speaker 1>administration support of Israel, and the party proved itself unwilling

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<v Speaker 1>to that core part of its base. And then, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>looking to Georgia and North Carolina, I and a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people thought that reproductive freedom would be more of

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<v Speaker 1>a mobilizing issue. I actually spent the weekend in North

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<v Speaker 1>Carolina in Charlotte, so I went to a Harris rally there,

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<v Speaker 1>which was just full of young women. And North Carolina

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<v Speaker 1>is a state with an incredibly draconian abortion band that

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<v Speaker 1>is affecting the lives of those women in material ways.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I expected that again, it would be more

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<v Speaker 1>of a mobilizing factor, or Trump would be more of

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<v Speaker 1>a turn off. I guess in those states, it's possible.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems that that was not the case, and that

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<v Speaker 1>for whatever reason, Harris has not reached enough women or

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<v Speaker 1>women haven't turned out in the right numbers in the

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<v Speaker 1>big enough numbers in the right places. Trump has historically

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<v Speaker 1>performed fairly well with white suburban women, and it may

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<v Speaker 1>be that Democrats overestimated how much white women would be

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<v Speaker 1>mobilized by reproductive freedom over other issues. We know who

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<v Speaker 1>from twenty sixteen that Donald Trump's sexism and misogyny is

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<v Speaker 1>not an obstacle to his political success, and it appears that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this evening has only further confirmed that.

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<v Speaker 2>And finally, what lessons do you think the Democratic Party

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<v Speaker 2>are going to take away from this election?

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<v Speaker 1>I have long suspected that if Harris lost this campaign,

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<v Speaker 1>that centrist elements in the Democratic Party and possibly even

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<v Speaker 1>in the Republican Party as well, will make the argument

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<v Speaker 1>that Harris was too progressive, her policies were too progressive,

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<v Speaker 1>and she turned off quote unquote independent or swing voters. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a politically convenient argument. You know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty old tactic to blame the left for their losses,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it will be really important as well

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<v Speaker 1>in the lead up to an Australian federal election to

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<v Speaker 1>watch the lessons that the Draw Labor Party takes out

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<v Speaker 1>of a Harris loss, because we know that Australian politics

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<v Speaker 1>does look very closely to American politics, and that there

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<v Speaker 1>are close relations between the Labor Party and the Democratic Party.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that that's something I'll be watching for

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<v Speaker 1>as well, to see what that kind of exchange is

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<v Speaker 1>and you know what lessons they are drawing out of.

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<v Speaker 2>It, Doctor Amasuredis, thank you so much for your.

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<v Speaker 1>Time, my pleasure, thanks to help.

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<v Speaker 2>Also in the news today, the high courts ruled that

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<v Speaker 2>forcing former immigration detainees to wear ankle bracelets is unconstitutional.

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<v Speaker 2>The Albanezi government introduced legislation last year to impose curfews

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<v Speaker 2>and electronic monitoring on former detainees released into the community

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<v Speaker 2>following a High court ruling that indefinite detention was illegal,

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<v Speaker 2>and thousands of Israelis have protested across the country after

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister Benjamintin Nahu sacked his defense minister, calling on

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<v Speaker 2>his successor to prioritize a deal to return the hostages

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza. Demonstrators gathered in central Tel Aviv, blocking the

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<v Speaker 2>city's main highway and crippling traffic, while several thousand protested

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<v Speaker 2>in Jerusalem, including outside of Natin Nahu's home. I'm Daniel

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<v Speaker 2>James seven Am will be back tomorrow,