Speaker 1: So I am at Howard University in the Washington, DC,
Speaker 1: in amongst the sea of people at the election night
Speaker 1: rally or Kamala Harris, and the atmosphere I have to
Speaker 1: say is pretty tense. People.
Speaker 2: As the US election began to rapidly slip away from
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, it became clear that she wasn't going to
Speaker 2: go on stage and speak anytime soon, and people at
Speaker 2: her election night rally began to drift away into the
Speaker 2: Washington night.
Speaker 1: It's about twenty minutes to midnight here Eastern time, and
Speaker 1: people are starting to leave the Harris rally. The mood
Speaker 1: is very subdued. It's become clear that it is a
Speaker 1: very difficult path ahead.
Speaker 2: The optimism that filled the roomor had faded away. Doctor
Speaker 2: Emma Shortess was there, but also didn't wait to see
Speaker 2: if Harris would speak either. It turns out she didn't.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump spoke in Florida shortly after.
Speaker 3: Look what happened is this get.
Speaker 2: I'm delivered a result that defied most expectations, projected that
Speaker 2: we're not just the presidency but the popular vote too.
Speaker 3: Every single day, I will be fighting for you and
Speaker 3: with every Brenner in my body. I will not rest
Speaker 3: until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America
Speaker 3: that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will
Speaker 3: truly be the Golden age of America. That's what we
Speaker 3: have to do.
Speaker 2: It seems most Americans do, in fact want to go
Speaker 2: back from sworts media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven
Speaker 2: AM Today's senior research out the Australian Institute, Doctor Emma
Speaker 2: Shortest on Trump's return to the White House. What all
Speaker 2: means for the future of the Democratic Party and democracy itself.
Speaker 2: It's Thursday, November seven, Emma suredus. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 2: You just come from what should be a joyous moment
Speaker 2: for the Harris camp. You were there for most of
Speaker 2: the evening, so you were tracking progress as the results
Speaker 2: were coming in in real time. What was the first
Speaker 2: big shock of the day from your perspective.
Speaker 1: I think that's a good question. Down I'm not sure
Speaker 1: there was one particular big shock for me. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, it sort of became clear over the course
Speaker 1: of the night that turnout wasn't going to be as
Speaker 1: good for Harris as people had initially thought. I think
Speaker 1: the moment for me came a little bit later, when
Speaker 1: you know, things were becoming more and more subdued as
Speaker 1: it was becoming clear how close it was, and CNN
Speaker 1: called California for Harris, which you know, of course it's
Speaker 1: no surprise at all that California would go Democratic, but
Speaker 1: the cheer that greeted that call, the kind of desperation
Speaker 1: in that Chia was probably the moment where I really confronted,
Speaker 1: I suppose where it was heading. And I think at
Speaker 1: that moment had that effect on quite a lot of
Speaker 1: people there too.
Speaker 2: And how did it play out throughout the night some
Speaker 2: of those key swing states like North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada.
Speaker 2: What was the feeling when, say, somewhere like North Carolina
Speaker 2: was announced.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was pretty bleak. You know, Initially it looked,
Speaker 1: particularly in Pennsylvania, like turnout was going to be really significant,
Speaker 1: you know, much higher than twenty twenty. And I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people there and in the media as well,
Speaker 1: took that as a sign that, you know, Pennsylvania was
Speaker 1: on track for Harris. But across the course of the night,
Speaker 1: it became clear that that wasn't the case at all
Speaker 1: of America.
Speaker 4: As the foreign President Trump is closing in with just
Speaker 4: a few electors, all votes away now from clinching to
Speaker 4: seventy as Pennsylvania is called for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So that kind of gradual realization, you know, you could
Speaker 1: see that dawning on people across the evening. And then, yeah,
Speaker 1: there were some audible groans when North Carolina was called.
Speaker 5: Former President Donald Trump will win the state of North Carolina.
Speaker 5: This has been a contested state. Vice President Harris went
Speaker 5: there many many times.
Speaker 1: And Georgia was called after a lot of people had left.
Speaker 1: So people started streaming out a sort of about eleven
Speaker 1: eleven thirty, So a lot.
Speaker 2: Of this was a shock to people in the room.
Speaker 2: Was it a shock to you, Emma.
Speaker 1: I think it was, Dan, You know, I think the
Speaker 1: polls have been so close for so long as you know,
Speaker 1: but American politics has felt so scrambled, particularly in the
Speaker 1: last year or so, and Donald Trump has so upset
Speaker 1: our political instincts that I honestly just didn't know, you know,
Speaker 1: couldn't read it which way it was going to go.
Speaker 1: So it is it's almost a shock that the polls
Speaker 1: appear to have been correct. I was talking to a
Speaker 1: colleague in Philadelphia and we were discussing the fact that
Speaker 1: it felt equally possible that it would be this kind
Speaker 1: of result, you know, this kind of close result, or
Speaker 1: you know, it could be a nineteen eighty level landslide,
Speaker 1: like a Reagan versus Jimmy Carter kind of landslide. Both
Speaker 1: of those things felt equally possible, and I think it's
Speaker 1: worth keeping that in mind. You know, the zone will
Speaker 1: be flooded with a lot of certainty in the next
Speaker 1: week or so about what's happened and why it's happened
Speaker 1: and what it means. And I think we should be
Speaker 1: really cautious about, you know, how effectively we can untangle
Speaker 1: the knot of American politics.
Speaker 2: After the break. What lessons will Democrats take from their loss, Emma,
Speaker 2: when we look at this selection, how does it compare
Speaker 2: to twenty sixteen, Because that was a shock result that
Speaker 2: everyone will remember, and no doubt everyone will remember tonight
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: Well. Look, I think maybe Dan, you know, twenty sixteen
Speaker 1: was more of a shock because there was such certainty
Speaker 1: that Clinton was going to win, that she was a
Speaker 1: shoe in. What this shows is that the long and
Speaker 1: deep structural divides of American politics that Trump capitalized on
Speaker 1: so effectively in twenty sixteen are still there. You know,
Speaker 1: he can still capitalize on them and do it incredibly effectively.
Speaker 1: So you know, of course a lot will be made
Speaker 1: about the economy and the state of the economy and
Speaker 1: how much that helped Trump, and of course that's true,
Speaker 1: but it's those long divisions and the failure or maybe
Speaker 1: that's too harsh a word to ask Biden to kind
Speaker 1: of heal all of those divisions, But the inability of
Speaker 1: the Biden administration to really address those structural issues is
Speaker 1: what has helped Trump.
Speaker 2: Trump has been very effective at speaking to people's grievances.
Speaker 2: Why do you think the Democrats have failed to speak
Speaker 2: to those same grievances?
Speaker 1: I think that partly what has happened is that Democrats
Speaker 1: haven't been able to account for their complicity, I think
Speaker 1: in the erosion of American economic life. You know, they
Speaker 1: haven't been able to account for Bill Clinton's role in
Speaker 1: implementing free trade agreements and dramatically restructuring the American economy
Speaker 1: away from kind of domestic based manufacturing. Democrats just haven't
Speaker 1: had an answer for that. But we also just can't
Speaker 1: underestimate the structural racism of American politics. You know, we
Speaker 1: just can't escape that foundational fact of American history, and
Speaker 1: that structural racism is what drives so much of Donald
Speaker 1: Trump's bass grievance.
Speaker 2: So in relation to the campaign itself, Harris had to,
Speaker 2: you know, outperform Trump in almost every sense, in terms
Speaker 2: of spend, in terms of her reach, in terms of
Speaker 2: her energy. Did she underperform or did Donald Trump overperform?
Speaker 2: Because it seems like there was a high voter turnout.
Speaker 2: I think that's something we can comfortably say.
Speaker 1: I think I would say that Trump has overperformed. You know,
Speaker 1: his campaign strategy was to mobilize men in particular. You know,
Speaker 1: he's engaging with figures like Elon Musk as why he's
Speaker 1: going on Joe Rogan's podcast, and it appears at least
Speaker 1: that you know, he's reached that audience of men and
Speaker 1: young men and mobilize them.
Speaker 3: We also have a Mandina White who has done some.
Speaker 6: I want to thank some people real quick. I want
Speaker 6: to bet then boys Aiden Ross, theo Vaughan bottom with
Speaker 6: the boys and laughed, but not least the mighty and
Speaker 6: powerful Joe Rogan.
Speaker 1: So I think there's an argument to be made that
Speaker 1: he overperformed there and likely a similar argument that Harris
Speaker 1: has underperformed. But then I think, you know, we can
Speaker 1: also look at more specific issues like Michigan, for example,
Speaker 1: which is a critical swing state where voters there had
Speaker 1: sent clear messages to Democrats about their devastation at the
Speaker 1: United States role in the world and particularly the Biden
Speaker 1: administration support of Israel, and the party proved itself unwilling
Speaker 1: to that core part of its base. And then, you know,
Speaker 1: looking to Georgia and North Carolina, I and a lot
Speaker 1: of people thought that reproductive freedom would be more of
Speaker 1: a mobilizing issue. I actually spent the weekend in North
Speaker 1: Carolina in Charlotte, so I went to a Harris rally there,
Speaker 1: which was just full of young women. And North Carolina
Speaker 1: is a state with an incredibly draconian abortion band that
Speaker 1: is affecting the lives of those women in material ways.
Speaker 1: You know, I expected that again, it would be more
Speaker 1: of a mobilizing factor, or Trump would be more of
Speaker 1: a turn off. I guess in those states, it's possible.
Speaker 1: It seems that that was not the case, and that
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, Harris has not reached enough women or
Speaker 1: women haven't turned out in the right numbers in the
Speaker 1: big enough numbers in the right places. Trump has historically
Speaker 1: performed fairly well with white suburban women, and it may
Speaker 1: be that Democrats overestimated how much white women would be
Speaker 1: mobilized by reproductive freedom over other issues. We know who
Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen that Donald Trump's sexism and misogyny is
Speaker 1: not an obstacle to his political success, and it appears that,
Speaker 1: you know, this evening has only further confirmed that.
Speaker 2: And finally, what lessons do you think the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: are going to take away from this election?
Speaker 1: I have long suspected that if Harris lost this campaign,
Speaker 1: that centrist elements in the Democratic Party and possibly even
Speaker 1: in the Republican Party as well, will make the argument
Speaker 1: that Harris was too progressive, her policies were too progressive,
Speaker 1: and she turned off quote unquote independent or swing voters. Again,
Speaker 1: I think that's a politically convenient argument. You know, it's
Speaker 1: a pretty old tactic to blame the left for their losses,
Speaker 1: and I think it will be really important as well
Speaker 1: in the lead up to an Australian federal election to
Speaker 1: watch the lessons that the Draw Labor Party takes out
Speaker 1: of a Harris loss, because we know that Australian politics
Speaker 1: does look very closely to American politics, and that there
Speaker 1: are close relations between the Labor Party and the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: So I think that that's something I'll be watching for
Speaker 1: as well, to see what that kind of exchange is
Speaker 1: and you know what lessons they are drawing out of.
Speaker 2: It, Doctor Amasuredis, thank you so much for your.
Speaker 1: Time, my pleasure, thanks to help.
Speaker 2: Also in the news today, the high courts ruled that
Speaker 2: forcing former immigration detainees to wear ankle bracelets is unconstitutional.
Speaker 2: The Albanezi government introduced legislation last year to impose curfews
Speaker 2: and electronic monitoring on former detainees released into the community
Speaker 2: following a High court ruling that indefinite detention was illegal,
Speaker 2: and thousands of Israelis have protested across the country after
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Benjamintin Nahu sacked his defense minister, calling on
Speaker 2: his successor to prioritize a deal to return the hostages
Speaker 2: in Gaza. Demonstrators gathered in central Tel Aviv, blocking the
Speaker 2: city's main highway and crippling traffic, while several thousand protested
Speaker 2: in Jerusalem, including outside of Natin Nahu's home. I'm Daniel
Speaker 2: James seven Am will be back tomorrow,