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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A, where we

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Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson, and today how do we solve the

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Speaker 1: productivity crisis? Every Monday morning, we're joined by economist Stephen Coacoulis.

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Speaker 1: You'll find him at the kook dot com and on

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Speaker 1: x using the handle the Kook. Stephen, Good morning.

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Speaker 2: Very good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with productivity because there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: things I want to talk to you about, but productivity

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Speaker 1: it is, well, it's the buzzword of the week, right.

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Speaker 1: We've got the Productivity round Table, or the Economic Reform

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Speaker 1: Roundtable starting in Canberra tomorrow. And productivity really came up

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Speaker 1: in a big way last week when we had Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Governor Michelle Bulloch calling it out as being the

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Speaker 1: big challenge revising down forecast. But it's not the RBA's

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Speaker 1: job to fix it. That's that's government. So let's start.

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Speaker 1: Let's unpack all of this. Why does productivity matter so much?

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Speaker 2: In a nutshell, productivity is the way that we improve

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Speaker 2: our living standards. So if we as a society, as

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Speaker 2: an economy can produce more output that means that we're

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Speaker 2: getting more national income and that is difided between corporations

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Speaker 2: and the workers. That's sort of one of the distributional

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Speaker 2: issues about productivity. But over time, and look at the

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Speaker 2: productive is not one of these things that you get

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Speaker 2: a sugar hit in one year. It's one of these

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Speaker 2: long run structural things that if you've got an efficient

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Speaker 2: economy that's innovative, that's got a competitive tax system, it's

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Speaker 2: got a competitive labor market with skills and knowledge and

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Speaker 2: education needed to undertake this new technology, something that's really

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Speaker 2: pertinent right now, you will get more economic output for

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Speaker 2: the level of capital investment and your labor, your workers.

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Speaker 2: And that's how productivity improves the living standards of all people.

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Speaker 2: And it's been you know, it's been lacking the last

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Speaker 2: decade decade and a half or so, it's been very

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Speaker 2: very weak, whereas back in the day, if we can say,

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Speaker 2: pre two thousand or something, we were having really solid, strong,

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Speaker 2: sustained lifts in productivity.

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Speaker 1: Okay, in that case, how is it measured? Is it

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Speaker 1: a case of you referred to economic output and is

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Speaker 1: it a kind of a combination of these various factors,

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Speaker 1: and in doing so, you're able to determine what is

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Speaker 1: the productivity rate?

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Speaker 2: Michael, that is a really challenging question. I'll tell you

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Speaker 2: how it's measured. Now. Whether this is the way that

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Speaker 2: the Bureau of Statistics capture is another issue. But it's

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Speaker 2: basically GDP the economic output of an economy. So that's

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Speaker 2: both widgets and tons of wheat and tons of iron

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Speaker 2: ore and buildings that are erected in those sort of things,

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Speaker 2: plus the wage that people in services get. So the

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Speaker 2: IBA governor, the productivity commissioner, so what's their output. It's

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Speaker 2: assumed to be their wage, So that's how it's measured.

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Speaker 2: It's the number of hours worked in the whole economy.

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Speaker 2: So that's what thirteen to forteen million people times thirty

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Speaker 2: three hours a week or whatever it is, times the

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Speaker 2: economic output that gets your productivity. Now, if I can,

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Speaker 2: if you can indulge me just one moment here, please,

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Speaker 2: because this is one of the things that is I

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Speaker 2: think creating a problem for this productivity summit this week

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Speaker 2: is that some industries, and as we move towards the

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Speaker 2: services based economy, some industries it's very very difficult to

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Speaker 2: measure productivity, and they are predominantly services. This is not

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Speaker 2: to say that services aren't productive on the contrary, but

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Speaker 2: it's measuring it. How do you mention the productivity of

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Speaker 2: a firefighter? How do you mention the productivity of a

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Speaker 2: test cricketer? How do you mention the productivity of a

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Speaker 2: journalist an economist? It's very very hard. Is it more reports?

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Speaker 2: Is it more fires? For a firefighter? Is how do

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Speaker 2: you mention the productivity of a priest you know? Or

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Speaker 2: a librarian. There's a whole lot of industries where it's

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Speaker 2: difficult to get a full measure and I think that

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Speaker 2: as we've moved to a service as economy that might

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Speaker 2: be distorting these measures as well. Not saying productive is

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Speaker 2: not unimportant. It is important, but there are issues of measurement.

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Speaker 1: So is it?

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Speaker 2: Then?

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Speaker 1: In some of those examples that you gave, are there

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Speaker 1: occupations in industries where it is not just hard to

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Speaker 1: measure but also hard to improve it because there is

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Speaker 1: only so productive. You can only be so productive at

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Speaker 1: a particular job.

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Speaker 2: One other example is sort of like age care and

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Speaker 2: nurses and cares. If you like that, how do you

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Speaker 2: judge the output all the productivity of a nurse in

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Speaker 2: intensive care he or she's got to look after these

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Speaker 2: people who are obviously in a bad way. And if

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Speaker 2: all they're doing is looking after them, which is a

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Speaker 2: job to sort of say, well, I'm going to spend

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Speaker 2: a bit less time looking after this poor person has

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Speaker 2: just had heart bypass surgery. I'll spend a bit more

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Speaker 2: time somewhere else. Will know that'd be more productive. Definitely

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Speaker 2: it would be, But it's not the sort of way

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Speaker 2: that you improve productivity. So for some industries, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: and that's just one example, not only is it difficult

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Speaker 2: to measure, it's difficult to achieve. And sure you can

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Speaker 2: have better computer systems where you write down the notes

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Speaker 2: of the patient with their blood pressure and pulse machines

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Speaker 2: and all this other stuff, but that's that's more for

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Speaker 2: the patient care. I don't think that improves necessarily the

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Speaker 2: output of the nurse or the care.

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Speaker 1: There's not exactly a wholesale change. That's not going to

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Speaker 1: be an enormous improvement overall.

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Speaker 2: And if I can answer this, say too, March, because

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Speaker 2: this is another example which I like to use and

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Speaker 2: it does really hit home how productivity does work. Think

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Speaker 2: of an iron ore field in the pilbra in Wa

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Speaker 2: you've got ten workers with a pick and a shovel

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Speaker 2: and a wheelbarrow. They're not going to dig out a

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Speaker 2: lot of iron ore, are they? For the ten workers.

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Speaker 2: If that company invests in machinery and equipment and a

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Speaker 2: rail line that takes the big diggers and trucks and

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Speaker 2: things ten workers, you would get an incredible lift in

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Speaker 2: the tonnages per worker. So capital investments in another important

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Speaker 2: part of that productivity equation. That one is easy to understand.

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Speaker 2: You know, nurses and teachers. If you have a class

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Speaker 2: size of fifty children rather than twenty, sure that's more productive.

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Speaker 2: But you know, as a parent who will used to

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Speaker 2: have kids going to school, I want a good parent

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Speaker 2: teacher ratio so my children and all the other children

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Speaker 2: in education get a really good quality of care and learning.

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Speaker 1: So you mentioned, though that the productivity challenge that we

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Speaker 1: face at the moment is not a new one. It

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Speaker 1: hasn't just come up this year or in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years. It's been around now for decade, fifteen years.

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Speaker 1: But it does appear certainly not going anywhere. How much

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Speaker 1: pressure then is on this productivity roundtable, the economic reform roundtable,

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Speaker 1: but it is about productivity really how much pressure on

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Speaker 1: it is there to actually have something meaningful come out

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Speaker 1: of it that's going to give us a boost. And

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Speaker 1: what happens if we don't get something? Is it this

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Speaker 1: handbreak on economic growth?

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Speaker 2: It is something that has to be done that there's

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Speaker 2: got to be a change. And we've seen all the

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Speaker 2: submissions or many of the submissions from the union movement,

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Speaker 2: from the Business Council, from the think tanks that are

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Speaker 2: going to be there, and a lot of other academics

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Speaker 2: and politicians of course, and they're the ones that are

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Speaker 2: going to implement the reforms needed. So I'll just take

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Speaker 2: a step back again. Everything that's going to be on

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Speaker 2: the table at the Productivity Summit, the Economic Summit will

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Speaker 2: require the government to implement those changes. They don't happen magically.

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Speaker 2: This is where we have the politics versus policy dilemma

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Speaker 2: coming in. You know, we know what things improve productivity.

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Speaker 2: We can have a chat over the next hour about

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Speaker 2: what improves productivity and we know what they are. However,

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Speaker 2: we the electorate often shy away from it, which means

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Speaker 2: the politicians shy away from it because if they meant

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Speaker 2: this change, they'll lose the election. So it's important that

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers is the Treasurer and the other ministers of

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Speaker 2: the working on this productivity and the recommendations that come

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Speaker 2: from it, actually spend time talking to the Electric through

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Speaker 2: the media, through their high profile, selling the story if

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Speaker 2: you like to get this productivity reformed through So yes,

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Speaker 2: they have to do something. And it ranges from skills

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Speaker 2: education and training, red tape production, making tax system more efficient.

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Speaker 2: So there's a myriad things that we sort of know already.

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Speaker 2: It's just having the ability, the wherewithal and the sales personship,

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Speaker 2: if we can call it that, to sell it to

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Speaker 2: the Electric so that we vote for them to implement

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Speaker 2: it next election.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to put you on the spot here

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Speaker 1: and just imagine that you were, in fact the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister and you weren't worried at all about re election,

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Speaker 1: that you were going to be retiring. So it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter what the Electric thinks of you. If there was

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Speaker 1: one thing that would give the greatest improvement to productivity

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Speaker 1: moving forward, because if you say this is not a

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Speaker 1: quick fix, it's a long term thing. What would be

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Speaker 1: the one thing that you would change.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that I think yields. The most thing

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Speaker 2: is i'll call it red tape, duplication of services between

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Speaker 2: the federal, state and local government sector. So for example,

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Speaker 2: we have a federal Department of Health and six and

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Speaker 2: two territory departments of health and departments of education and

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Speaker 2: road rules. So if I drive across the border from

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Speaker 2: New South Wales to Victoria, there's different road rules. If

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Speaker 2: I just move from Aubrey to Wodonga, I've got to

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Speaker 2: go through and change my driver's license and car regio.

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Speaker 2: All of that sort of stuff is and that's just

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Speaker 2: a micro example, just by the way. I don't think

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Speaker 2: that's going to fix the whole productivity issue, but we

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Speaker 2: have state and territory and local governments. This building is

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Speaker 2: construction is a really hot topic too, which will be

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Speaker 2: at the summit this week. Is just really getting rid

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Speaker 2: of impediments to businesses doing stuff and so tax reform, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that will help a little bit. Skills education and training

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Speaker 2: is another one that I wouldn't discount either. So I'm

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Speaker 2: probably giving you quite a few answers, right, but it's

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Speaker 2: really this. It sounds a bit cliche, but the red tape,

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Speaker 2: the regulation, the duplication of services, you're getting a block

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Speaker 2: of land, getting a dwelling approved to build. It is cumbersome, costly, slow,

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Speaker 2: no wonder. We haven't had a decent supply side response

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Speaker 2: on housing. So it's on transport, it's on a whole

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Speaker 2: myriad of things. So simplify the system so that when

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Speaker 2: the business sector's got a great idea they can implement

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Speaker 2: it quickly and efficiently and get on with the job

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Speaker 2: of producing more GDP.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and look, I mean undoing and simplifying red tape.

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Speaker 1: Despite its very nature, is is not an easy thing

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Speaker 1: and requires a great deal of cooperation.

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Speaker 2: Because they're a best interest that will have the who

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Speaker 2: love who hide behind men take They love it because

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Speaker 2: it keeps them employed.

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Speaker 1: Now we are entirely out of time. The main thing

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Speaker 1: coming up this week, because we do like to look

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Speaker 1: at the week ahead, it is the Economic round table,

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Speaker 1: just taking in less than a minute. Last week, it

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Speaker 1: was a massive week for the economy, wasn't We had

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Speaker 1: the RBA meeting, we had wages data come out, and

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Speaker 1: we had labor force figures, RBA rates decision was expected.

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Speaker 1: Is the labor force data that we saw last week

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Speaker 1: is that strong enough to delay the next rate cut.

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Speaker 2: Do you think the short answers no. The Governor, when

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Speaker 2: she announced the rate cut on Tuesday last did sort

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Speaker 2: of signal that the expectations of the bank are and

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Speaker 2: it was included in their forecast for a couple of

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Speaker 2: more rate cuts over the course of the next six

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Speaker 2: to nine months. So timing is the question, not the direction.

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Speaker 2: The labor market numbers were actually quite good. They were

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Speaker 2: in the groove, if you know what I mean. We

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Speaker 2: had wages growth at three point four percent, so that's nice.

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Speaker 2: We had twenty five thousand jobs created, pretty good. The

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate, having ticked up previously ticked back down to

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Speaker 2: four point two percent, so they don't derail that strategy,

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Speaker 2: if we can call it that of the bank to

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Speaker 2: trim rates in the months ahead without picking the exact month.

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Speaker 2: But it's sort of one of these ones where you are,

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Speaker 2: we are we getting through this position and I've been

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Speaker 2: critical of the RBA, but maybe maybe I'm wrong, maybe

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Speaker 2: the Bank's right. And you know, if we look back

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Speaker 2: in another six months and say, well, gee, we got

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Speaker 2: through this inflation problem, the deflation issue that has now

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Speaker 2: eventuated with unemployment chopping out at four point three four

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Speaker 2: point four percent. Not bad.

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Speaker 1: All right, Steven, have a great week.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: That was a kind of a Stephen coculis better known

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Speaker 1: as the Kirk. You can find him at the kouk

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Speaker 1: dot com that's th ko uk and follow him on

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Speaker 1: X using the handle of the Kirk. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and this is Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Q and eight

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Speaker 1: Y