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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today,

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank Board meets as signs emerge of a

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Speaker 1: slowdown in the economy, notwithstanding inflation is still too high.

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Speaker 1: Westpac announces a lower profit as it struggles to win

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Speaker 1: share in the mortgage market, and Optus starts taking back

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Speaker 1: control of its operations following the triple zero outage. Plus,

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Speaker 1: the climate change crisis within the Coalition escalates, with members

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Speaker 1: of the Liberal Party now split over the issue, and

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Speaker 1: the hardest working Australians are revealed. It is Tuesday, the

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Speaker 1: fourth of November twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning the Australian economy is showing

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Speaker 1: signs of slowing, with household spending and the labor market weakening,

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Speaker 1: just as inflation picks up. You've got to say it

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Speaker 1: makes the Reserve Bank's job of running the economy just

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Speaker 1: a little bit difficult.

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Speaker 2: A sure does. The result Bank Board will meet today

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Speaker 2: when they met yesterday and again today with an announcement

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Speaker 2: on rates at two point thirty pm. A bunch of

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Speaker 2: very mixed data points points coming in to consider. While

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Speaker 2: no one really expects a rate cut, a raft of releases,

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Speaker 2: yesterday's shows that the pace of growth in the economy

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Speaker 2: is definitely slowing. First, the household spending indicators just zero

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Speaker 2: point two percent in September, will below expectations. The previous

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Speaker 2: month's growth rate was revised down to zero per capita

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Speaker 2: spending spending per person over the September quarter, which feeds

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Speaker 2: into the overall economic growth figure, was probably negative. Spending,

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Speaker 2: no doubt, has been helped by interest rate cuts and

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, none of those in the foreseeable future. Michael, so,

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Speaker 2: households are dragging a bit. Its household spending has certainly

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Speaker 2: lost momentum. Retailers will be very much sweating on Black

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Speaker 2: Friday sales and they're run up to Christmas. There were

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Speaker 2: some good news in the construction sector yesterday, with dwelling

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Speaker 2: approvals better than forecast, rising twelve percent, driven by higher

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Speaker 2: unit approvals. Those monthly numbers do seem to jump around

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Speaker 2: a bit, a fair bit, and in the labor market,

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Speaker 2: Ains said, job ads posted another monthly decline, this time

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Speaker 2: of two point two percent. Leading indicators of the labor

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Speaker 2: market like the Ain said job ads series are at

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Speaker 2: best mixed. Given the unemployment rates going to four point

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Speaker 2: five percent, that's not looking so good.

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Speaker 1: Where does inflation fit into this, then, Sean, Because of

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Speaker 1: course we had that very hot inflation number quite a

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Speaker 1: surprise last week.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it wasn't a very good number. I mean a

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Speaker 2: few economists have noted that inflation is highest in what's

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Speaker 2: known as the administered parts of the economy, like utilities, property, healthcare,

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Speaker 2: essential spending sort of thing that's rising faster than discretionary spending. Still,

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Speaker 2: no matter how you read it, prices are rising much

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Speaker 2: faster than the Reserve Bank ONTs. So on the one hand,

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Speaker 2: they've got rising prices, but they're also looking at it

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Speaker 2: slowing economy.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So when the Reserve Bank Board announces it's no

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Speaker 1: rate cut decision today after its board meeting and just

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Speaker 1: before the gates open for the Melbourne Cups, I'm sure

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Speaker 1: everyone will be listening very closely to what the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank says. What do you expect them to focus on?

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Speaker 2: In fationis the number one public enemy. We know that

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Speaker 2: that'll be the number one issue for the Central Bank

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Speaker 2: no matter what. But they may also have to give

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Speaker 2: a nod to the fragility of the recovery in the

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Speaker 2: consumer sector. The consumer sector is the biggest part of

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Speaker 2: the economy. Also, they may have to mention the weakening

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Speaker 2: of the labor market. No rate cut, that's for sure,

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Speaker 2: but plenty to chew on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's probably It's going to be

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Speaker 1: one of those ones where everyone will be sifting through

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Speaker 1: it and looking for those keywords, right, and it's one

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Speaker 1: of those days where semantics mean an awful lot. Like

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Speaker 1: you are trying to extract as much meaning as you

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Speaker 1: possibly can now Sean a strong competition for loans and

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Speaker 1: deposits have pushed Westpac's annual earning slightly lower, though the

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Speaker 1: country's second largest bank announced in improvement in profit margins.

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Speaker 2: For the year to the end of September, Westpac posted

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Speaker 2: a six point nine to two billion dollar profit, down

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Speaker 2: one percent from a year earlier, but slightly better than expectations.

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Speaker 2: Westpac's share price outperformed the market yesterday, rising almost three percent.

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Speaker 2: The good news came from the business bank, where loans

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Speaker 2: are up fifteen percent and the institutional business lanes are

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Speaker 2: up seventeen percent. Now, remember, banks basically take deposits and

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Speaker 2: land money. That's how they make money. So the business

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Speaker 2: institutional side things are pretty good. However, home loan growth

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Speaker 2: of five percent was below market for Westpac. Now according

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Speaker 2: to the regulator this Train Predential Regulation Authority, Westpac has

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Speaker 2: lost the most mortgage market share among the big full

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Speaker 2: lenders over the past year. Yesterday, Chief executive Anthony Miller said,

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Speaker 2: while there was a modest recovery in private demand, there

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Speaker 2: are still plenty of challenges for small businesses out there

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Speaker 2: across materials, labor, and energy costs. Westpac also will sell

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Speaker 2: it's two point one four billion dollar RAMS mortgage portfolio

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Speaker 2: that's caused all sorts of issues over the past year

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Speaker 2: or so. The other really big challenge for Westpac, it's

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Speaker 2: got a bunch of legacy computer systems that've got a

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Speaker 2: program called Unite. They're trying to bring them all onto

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Speaker 2: the one banking system. What the fear is is that

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Speaker 2: for the next few years there'll be so much spending

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Speaker 2: on that the profits won't look so good.

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Speaker 1: You've spoken to Anthony Miller a couple of times, has

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Speaker 1: been on the show. How big a concern is that

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Speaker 1: in relation to the mortgage market share losing the most

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Speaker 1: mortgage market share among the big four lenders over the

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Speaker 1: past year. How worried would they be about that.

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Speaker 2: They're worried about it because mortgages are relatively profitable loans,

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Speaker 2: so they're definitely worried about it. They'd be more worried

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Speaker 2: about it if they weren't making inroads into the business

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Speaker 2: lending sector. So what you don't want to do is

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Speaker 2: go backwards on both We actually we'll talk about those

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Speaker 2: APRO numbers in a moment, because there's one organization that's

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Speaker 2: doing particularly well and they're skewing the market a bit.

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Speaker 1: Oh good teas. Thanks, you're luring us through. I don't

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Speaker 1: know whether kind of opra has ever been used as

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Speaker 1: a tease, but today's the day. What about the rest

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Speaker 1: of the ASEX. What else happened?

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Speaker 2: There's some PAX two hundred closed up just to touch,

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Speaker 2: finished at just under eighty nine hundred points. The other

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Speaker 2: three big banks benefited from Westpax result. They are all

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Speaker 2: high in the big minus. We lower the retailers. We mixed.

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Speaker 2: Healthcare stocks are among the worst performers. Sleep Apnear Devices make

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Speaker 2: a Resme's share price fell four percent, Cocklear was lower,

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Speaker 2: Cisse it was lower. Also, property stocks also fell back

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Speaker 2: and as hopes of an interest rate cut fade. Now,

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Speaker 2: property companies are highly indebted. You know, they owe a

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Speaker 2: lot of money. So anything, you know, whatever the interest

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Speaker 2: rate they pay is, has a very significant impact on earnings.

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Speaker 2: So that's what I go up and down very much

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Speaker 2: on expectations of interest rate.

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Speaker 1: Sewn in global markets, OPEC plus will pause output increases

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Speaker 1: during the first quarter next year as the group balances.

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Speaker 1: It's pushed for market share against signs of an emerging surplus.

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Speaker 1: That news pushed the price of oil higher.

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Speaker 2: And Woodside and Santos as well. Gold Gold was backing

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Speaker 2: about a week now, Michael, every day.

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Speaker 1: I Mean, the thing is, it's one of those things

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Speaker 1: that if it's not breaking records, we're just like, we

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Speaker 1: have got unrealistic expectations now we do.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's only four thousand dollars an ounce. Who

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Speaker 2: cares it was a dollar buying sixty five and a

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Speaker 2: half years cents bitcoin worth just under one hundred and

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Speaker 2: eight thousand US dollars a unit, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, plenty still to come, Sean. We'll be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Seawan.

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Speaker 1: The Liberal Party is split on the issue of climate

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Speaker 1: change once again, putting Opposition leader Susan Lee's position in jeopardy.

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Speaker 1: With several senior Conservatives in favor of dumping.

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Speaker 2: That zero following the National Party rejecting net zero in

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Speaker 2: favor of a more flexible, shall we say, emissions reduction target,

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Speaker 2: The Libs have splintered on one side the Conservatives, including

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Speaker 2: Angus Taylor, who earlier in the year lost the leadership

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Speaker 2: battle to season Lee. The Conservatives are floating the idea

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Speaker 2: of dumping the Liberals net zero policy. On the other side,

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Speaker 2: of the Moderates, includingly some in that faction are canvassing

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Speaker 2: splitting from the Nats over this issue. According to media reports,

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Speaker 2: both sides of the coalition are now talking about a

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Speaker 2: potential split. All this is happening while the coalition's approval

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Speaker 2: ratings is plumbing new lows.

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Speaker 1: What a mess, Yeah, absolute mess. Now. The Senate inquiry

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Speaker 1: into the triple zero outage at Optus was held yesterday

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Speaker 1: and it was really it was a pretty feisty affair.

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Speaker 1: Some senators that they had been astounded by the revelations

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Speaker 1: about Optus's failures. In the hours after the outage.

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Speaker 2: It included five calls to optusa's overseas call center, which

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Speaker 2: had not been escalated at the hearing. The Australian Communications

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Speaker 2: and Media Authority said the regulator had received a phone

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Speaker 2: call and emails in the afternoon of September eighteen informing

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Speaker 2: it that ten triple zero calls had been impacted by

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Speaker 2: an outage, but that it had been resolved. But it hadn't.

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Speaker 2: The regulator said Optics had made ten big errors and

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Speaker 2: would not be let off the hook. For its part,

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Speaker 2: Optus chief executive Stephen Rue partially blamed Nokia for the

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Speaker 2: handling of the outage, saying some personal personnel failings were

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Speaker 2: within the Finnish telco company. That's where they have outsourced

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Speaker 2: some of their in house work too. Now Optis were

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Speaker 2: bring back in house the network monitoring activities it previously

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Speaker 2: did outsource to Nokia that was in India primarily and Australia.

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Speaker 2: Rue said he was deeply sorry for the tragic deaths

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Speaker 2: that occurred as a result of the outage, though he

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Speaker 2: rejected calls for him to resign.

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Speaker 1: Sean before the break we were talking about that APRA

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Speaker 1: data and here we go. It shows that Macquarie Bank

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Speaker 1: is aggressively winning share in the mortgage market.

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Speaker 2: It's quite amazing. Mcquarie grew its mortgage book and deposits

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Speaker 2: at three times the pace of Commonwealth Bank in September. Now,

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank was the best of the big four lenders,

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Speaker 2: National Australia Bank, ain Z and Westpac. As we mentioned

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Speaker 2: earlier on, they lost market share over the last twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Mcquarie three times the pace of the number two, which

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Speaker 2: is Commonwealth Bank. Pretty impressive. Commonwealth Bank's mortgage book pushed

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Speaker 2: through six hundred billion dollars for the first time. Or

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Speaker 2: this is just good news for consumers because of course

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Speaker 2: more competition means better deals. It won't last necessarily, well,

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Speaker 2: history suggests it won't last because Mcquarie Bank very aggressive

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Speaker 2: now but ultimately wants to make money out of these loans.

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Speaker 2: So maybe not that I would like to make any

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Speaker 2: given any investment decision, but maybe it's not a bad

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Speaker 2: time to shop around your home loan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's always worthwhile just making some calls and

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Speaker 1: seeing what you can get. That's just kind of that's

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Speaker 1: just good financial behavi Sean is Now we alluded to

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Speaker 1: this one at the very start of the show and

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Speaker 1: the introduction, who are the hardest working people in the country, Well,

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Speaker 1: apparently it is miners, farmers, surgeons, politicians and perhaps surprisingly podcasters.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, surprisingly because they didn't seem to come up in

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Speaker 2: the numbers. That wasn't surprise that you just said that.

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Speaker 2: Then you hardest, hardest working people that spend the most

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Speaker 2: time in the office. That might be at a mine

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Speaker 2: or on a farm. But you know what I mean.

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Speaker 2: These figures, it's from census data and last by the

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Speaker 2: Sydney Morning Herald, assistant drillers, common Job and mind Sights

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Speaker 2: have the nation's longest average full time hours at seventy

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Speaker 2: point three hours a week.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Next with the actual drillers that they support sixty eight hours.

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Speaker 2: Mining had very very long hours. Mining also had a

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Speaker 2: lot of people who hadn't worked last week, So Census says,

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Speaker 2: how much did you work in the last week? And

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Speaker 2: because these fly and fly out when they're in, they're

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Speaker 2: flown in, they're working very very hard. Away from mining,

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Speaker 2: beef cattle farmers work fifty four hours, general surgeons fifty

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Speaker 2: two and a half, CEOs just under fifty hours, GPS,

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Speaker 2: primary school teachers, airline pilots, forty four to forty five

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Speaker 2: hour mark, although the standard full time hours is actually

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Speaker 2: thirty eight hours a week. Only two occupations out of

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Speaker 2: nine hundred and seventeen reported full time hours lower than

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Speaker 2: that benchmark, library technicians and library assistants. I'm sensing a

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Speaker 2: theme here other workers with relatively short full time hours,

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Speaker 2: preschool aids, archivists, air traffic controllers and pharmacy sales assistance.

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Speaker 2: The Sydney Morning and the Age have got this great

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Speaker 2: little device which you can put in your occupation and

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Speaker 2: find out how hard you work.

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Speaker 1: That's fantastic. We're going to do.

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Speaker 2: Our podcasters as well. Journalists.

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Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, that's okay. So we were in there. We

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Speaker 1: were in there, just not quite as high as we thought. No,

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Speaker 1: that's fine, that's fine. Turning into international news now, sure.

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Speaker 1: And this story is just it just keeps on, just

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Speaker 1: keeps on. Giving the theft of one hundred and two

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Speaker 1: million dollars worth of jewels from the Louver last month,

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Speaker 1: it just the entertainment here. The prosecutors say that it

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Speaker 1: was the work of petty criminals, not professionals from the

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Speaker 1: world of organized crime.

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Speaker 2: Which makes the fact that they succeeded even more incredible,

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Speaker 2: I would argue. French prosecutors have alleged that on a

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Speaker 2: Sunday morning two weeks ago, two men parked a movers

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Speaker 2: lift outside the louver, rode up to the second story,

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Speaker 2: smashed the window, cracked open display cases with angle grinders,

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Speaker 2: then fed on the back of scooters driven by two

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Speaker 2: accomplices in a highest lasting less than seven minutes. Three

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Speaker 2: of the four suspects are now under arrest. A fourth person,

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Speaker 2: believed to be the girlfriends of one of the suspects,

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Speaker 2: has also been arrested. The jewels, though are still missing.

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Speaker 2: Authorities said their profiles do not resemble Oceans elevens tole gangsters,

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Speaker 2: but small time criminals from the northern suburbs of Paris.

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Speaker 2: There you go. French media have speculated that the robbers

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Speaker 2: were amateurs pretty much because they dropped the most precious

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Speaker 2: of the jewels and press Eugenie's crown made of gold

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Speaker 2: emeralder nyamens. During their fight. They left tools around the

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Speaker 2: glove other items at the scene, failed to set fire

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Speaker 2: to the mover's truck before fleeing.

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Speaker 1: Not that much of a surprise that they are amateurs, No, No,

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Speaker 1: it does just make it even more embarrassing though, that

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Speaker 1: they managed to get away with it for as long

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Speaker 1: as they did. Sean, it is Melbourne Cup day. Surely

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Speaker 1: you have a tip for us.

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Speaker 2: Oh look, I've started the form on the basis that

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Speaker 2: there is a jockey riding a horse. The jockey's name

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Speaker 2: is thor hammer Hansen. Yes, is that not one of

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Speaker 2: the great names, that is the ald greatest jockeys. So

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Speaker 2: thor hammer Hansen is riding a horse called Flatten the Curve,

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Speaker 2: very much like you know the bond heeled curve, that

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Speaker 2: sort of thing. The horse comes from France, which is

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Speaker 2: where Jack and I have been past couple of months.

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Speaker 2: It is a sure thing hammer Hansen riding Flatten the Curve.

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Speaker 2: It's playing about forty dollars, so plenty of value there,

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Speaker 2: absolutely sure thing. Kind of what about you? You'd be

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Speaker 2: on one smooth opera to regain this year, wouldn't you?

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Speaker 2: I know?

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Speaker 1: Well, potentially, But having just had a quick glance through

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Speaker 1: the names, see I rely on Stephen could cool. It's

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Speaker 1: our resident economyts throughout tips every year he gives us

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Speaker 1: tips and it's the only time I've ever back a

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Speaker 1: winner on the Melbourne Cup is when I used a

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Speaker 1: tip from the kook and he is away. He is overseas,

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Speaker 1: so I am. I've got nothing except I do like

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Speaker 1: a number eighteen parchment party because it sounds like a

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Speaker 1: party where you just sit around and read, and that's

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Speaker 1: my kind of party.

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Speaker 2: You are the only person I know, Michael, that takes

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Speaker 2: your kids during the school holidays to the library.

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Speaker 1: And not just one library. We do a tour of

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Speaker 1: every library we can find, and I love it qualiday

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Speaker 1: time with your kids. Yeah, it's fantastic. Anyway, Sean, Big

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Speaker 1: day Today. Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking to Josh Gilbert for me Torow.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we're almost at the end of the big tech

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Speaker 2: companies on Wall Street reporting, so we go through how

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Speaker 2: they've gone and video still to go. We're also ask

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Speaker 2: him what's his favorite big tech stock and his least

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Speaker 2: favorite big tech stock. We're worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming up next to the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearandegreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au. We can sign up for our free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Tuesday, the fourth

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Speaker 1: of November twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the

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Speaker 1: podcast and please join us online and on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and thatsphere and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.