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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The housing market started the new year with a bang,

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Speaker 1: with a pickup in both prices and successful actions. The

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Speaker 1: RBA convenes today and tomorrow to deliberate on interest rates

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Speaker 1: and markets reckon, there will be a rate hike tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: and the crisis in the federal Coalition gets worse with

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Speaker 1: Pauline showing Pauline Hanson is now the country's most popular politician. Plus,

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Speaker 1: the prices of gold, silver, and bitcoin tumble after US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump announces his pick for FED chair, and

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Speaker 1: the latest Epstein email releases capture leading business figures, including

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Speaker 1: Bill Gates and Elon Musk. It is Monday, the second

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Speaker 1: of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. How's your weekend. I've got to ask you.

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Speaker 2: It was a very big birthday. The first number changed.

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Speaker 1: That's right, the big fortieth birthday. And it was a

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Speaker 1: fantastic weekend, great celebration and.

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Speaker 2: We congratulations, happy birthday, Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Very much, Sean. Now, the main story this morning house prices,

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Speaker 1: so one of my favorite topics. Actually, yeah, let's rip in.

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Speaker 1: I've kicked off the year stronger than expected, right totalities

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Speaker 1: Home Value Index rising zero point eight percent in January,

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Speaker 1: higher than the previous month, and it came as the

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Speaker 1: first big week of auction. Shows an improved preliminary clearance

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Speaker 1: rate for most capital cities.

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Speaker 2: Behind the headline number from Totality, though there were clear disparities.

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Speaker 2: Sydney and Melbourne wade on the top line figure, recording

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Speaker 2: just zero point two and zero point one percent increases

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Speaker 2: respectively during January. It was better than December when prices

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Speaker 2: went backwards, mind you now, the midsize capitals Brisbane, Adelaide

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Speaker 2: and Perth continued to run harder, though some of the

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Speaker 2: momentum is escaping those markets. Demand side factors are becoming

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Speaker 2: more relevant, affordability constraints. It's a pretty expensive market out there.

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Speaker 2: Lower levels of immigration means not quite as many people around,

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Speaker 2: a more cautious credit environment, particularly since the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: is set to lift the official cash rate tomorrow. There

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Speaker 2: are still some tail winds though, According to Totality, supply

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Speaker 2: levels remain constrained and there are attractive incentives for first

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Speaker 2: home buyers. Although the rental market is tied pushing people

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Speaker 2: to buy the other thing, Michael, people have a job.

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Speaker 2: That always helps. When people have a job, they tend

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Speaker 2: to be more likely to buy a house. Overall, the

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Speaker 2: thirteen trillion dollar housing sector, which of course for most

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Speaker 2: of us is our primary financial asset, is heading into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six in solid, if unspectacular feedtal.

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Speaker 1: Now sean the business picks up after Australia Day. The

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Speaker 1: housing market's exactly the same, right and we saw that

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Speaker 1: take place. The preliminary clearance rate has come in at

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Speaker 1: sixty nine point seven percent, which is much higher than

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Speaker 1: where it actually finished twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so their preliminary clearance straight peaked at just under

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Speaker 2: seventy eight percent back in September. It then fell back

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Speaker 2: to about sixty three percent at the end of last year.

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Speaker 2: So sixty nine point seven is a pretty solid rebound.

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Speaker 2: Fatality said the pickup could be a sign of vendors

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Speaker 2: adjusting their pricing expectation ahead of an expected rate increase.

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Speaker 2: Now across the capital's Melbourne led the volume of bactions.

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Speaker 2: More than six hundred and forty homes went to market.

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Speaker 2: The preliminary cluing strait came in at sixty nine point

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Speaker 2: three percent. Sydney came in at seventy one point three percent,

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Speaker 2: Brisbane seventy five percent. It's getting better and better here

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Speaker 2: Adelaide eighty six percent, Camera thirty nine point eight percent.

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Speaker 2: A bit of a dud weekend for anyone from Canberra

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Speaker 2: trying to sell their house.

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Speaker 1: The asx sean finished January up one point eight percent.

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Speaker 1: That is the best monthly return since August of last year.

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Speaker 1: Great month. How's February looking?

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Speaker 2: I can tell you how today is looking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that'll do. I'd love to hear you

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Speaker 1: make a prediction for the full month, considering who knows

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen.

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Speaker 2: But go on, the futures market reckons that today will

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Speaker 2: open more than a half percent lower. What I will

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Speaker 2: predict is the market will go up. The market will

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Speaker 2: go down in February, of course. So Michael, it's all

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Speaker 2: about it interest rates this week.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and on that. The Reserve Bank Board convenes today

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Speaker 1: for two days and at two thirty tomorrow afternoon will

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Speaker 1: make the big announcement whether interest rates will stay on

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Speaker 1: hold or rise. And most economists are tipping a hike.

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Speaker 2: It isn't a lay down MESSI though, but it would

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Speaker 2: be a surprise if they don't hike the major bank

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Speaker 2: economists think they'll hike financial markets price and a seventy

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Speaker 2: five percent chance of an increase, but it's not guaranteed.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank Board will no doubt be concerned about

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Speaker 2: inflation staying above its target, employment growth staying strong. There

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Speaker 2: are actually only two major developed nations with an interest

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Speaker 2: rate tightening bias at the moment, a straight being one.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to do this to you, any idea what

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Speaker 2: the other one is?

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Speaker 1: Japan?

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Speaker 2: Well done, Michael, well done?

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Speaker 1: Ah God, the pressure Sean, do not do that to

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Speaker 1: me on a Monday morning.

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Speaker 2: It's like university hasn't aside. Just a lot of contention

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Speaker 2: at the moment is whether the Reserve Bank and the

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Speaker 2: way it operates, and we have, of course Governor Michelle

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Speaker 2: Bullock giving press conferences after each many whether it's better

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Speaker 2: in the old days when there was a lot less information,

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Speaker 2: because the argument is that when different people are speaking

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Speaker 2: and they're speaking a lot, you tend to get more

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Speaker 2: mixed messages, so you get confused and not clarity. Anyway, Well,

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Speaker 2: we can mean they're not going to change anything about

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Speaker 2: that anytime soon. We'll find out about interest rates tomorrow afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you want to hear an interesting take

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Speaker 1: on it, Fearing read the week Ahead, which comes up

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Speaker 1: after today's show with our resident economist Stephen Coculis talking

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Speaker 1: about the weekend and the economy. Obviously, there is only

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Speaker 1: one thing to talk about this week, and that is

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank meeting, and Stephen takes a slightly different

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Speaker 1: approach to it. Yeah, it's definitely I'm just I'm teasing now,

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Speaker 1: but it is definitely worth It is definitely worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: It's a really interesting chat. There was plenty of action

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Speaker 1: in global markets over the weekend, Shawn after US President

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump announced Kevin Walsh would replace Jerome Powell as

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Speaker 1: head of the FED in May, and markets reacted positively

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Speaker 1: to the announcement.

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Speaker 2: And that's not because he's likely to cut interest rates.

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Speaker 2: It's because he's a half decent appointment. According to Ennlys

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Speaker 2: And while more recently he's been on the Trump bandwagon

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Speaker 2: in terms of the need to cut rates, at other

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Speaker 2: times in his career, including when he was a FED governor, previously,

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Speaker 2: he was actually pushing for higher rates when they didn't

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Speaker 2: go higher. His appointment triggered some really incredible moves in currency,

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Speaker 2: in commodity markets, the fact that Trump appointed mister Walsh

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Speaker 2: wairs h kind of you know, calmed markets. The price

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Speaker 2: of goal, which has been going crazy. He pushed through

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Speaker 2: fifty six hundred US dollarsan anounced last week it fell

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Speaker 2: ten percent. The price of silver, which is quadrupled over

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Speaker 2: the past year, it dropped nearly thirty percent in one session.

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Speaker 2: That's really quite crazy for a precious metal. Basically, it's

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Speaker 2: because incoming FED governor is less likely to do something

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Speaker 2: stupid that would trigger inflation. Therefore there might not be

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Speaker 2: as much need for those stores of value gold and silver.

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Speaker 2: The US dollar appreciated, pushing the Aussie dollar back to

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Speaker 2: sixty nine and a half US cents. The other one

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Speaker 2: that was hammered Bitcoin, Wow, it was hit really hard.

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Speaker 2: It's down to seventy seven thousand US dollars a unit.

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Speaker 2: What did it peak at one hundred and twenty five thousand,

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Speaker 2: so you know, off huge amount.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is big. Big starts to the day. Sean

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news sewn with Susan Lee, the leader of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Liberal Party and David Little Proud, the leader of

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Speaker 1: the Federal Nationals, both facing potential leadership spills this week.

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Speaker 1: Coalition is now the third choice for voters, behind Labor

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Speaker 1: and One Nation, and Pauline Hanson, who is of course

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Speaker 1: the leader of One Nation, is now the most popular

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Speaker 1: politician in the country. Would you believe no, I don't really.

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Speaker 1: That's higher than the Prime Minister. That's higher than your

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Speaker 1: other kind of popular retail politicians.

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Speaker 2: Her favorability rating came in at thirty eight percent, Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Anthony Albanezi thirty four percent. Wow, incredible, isn't it? So?

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Speaker 2: Less than twenty percent of voters support the Coalition parties

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Speaker 2: twenty six percent support One Nation. According to the latest

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Speaker 2: fin Review Redbridge Group Accent Research poll, combined support for

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Speaker 2: the Coalition Parties has gone from twenty six percent last

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Speaker 2: month to ninety percent thirteen point. It's lower than their

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Speaker 2: primary vote when they got wallopped in the federal election

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Speaker 2: in May last year. In contrast, One Nation's primary voter

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Speaker 2: has gone from seventeen percent before Christmas to twenty six percent.

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Speaker 2: In the election, it was just six percent, So quite

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Speaker 2: a phenomenal rise for one nation. Labor remained statistically even

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Speaker 2: at thirty four percent. Greens felt slightly but really the

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Speaker 2: truly amazing result in terms of favorability ratings hands and

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Speaker 2: thirty eight percent, alban easy thirty four percent.

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Speaker 1: Oh that Barnaby Joyce came in at twenty three percent,

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Speaker 1: and I think he was the third most and you

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Speaker 1: got Susan Lee were all the way Susan Lee all

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Speaker 1: the way down there at ten percent. Like it is.

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Speaker 1: It's quite extraordinary the way that conservative politics is going

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Speaker 1: at the moment.

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Speaker 2: What I thought was really interesting is it really they

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Speaker 2: struggled then because at the end of the day, the

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Speaker 2: two party preferred tends to be the best reflection of

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Speaker 2: the electra and it was fifty six forty four. But

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Speaker 2: if you were doing this properly, you'd have to actually

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Speaker 2: give the preference votes to one nation, not to the Libs.

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Speaker 2: But they just the polsters said, look, all the one

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Speaker 2: nation votes will go to the Libs in a tw

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Speaker 2: party preferred, but actually the Libs should be going to

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Speaker 2: one nation.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Interesting.

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Speaker 1: It as a fascinating time. As I said, what about

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Speaker 1: the leadership challenges? Just quickly that we mentioned the two

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Speaker 1: potential leadership challenges there for the Nats and the Libs.

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Speaker 1: On the Nats, Little Proud's going to face a challenge

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Speaker 1: today from Queensland MP Colin Boyce, But you would imagine

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Speaker 1: that Little Prowd's going to win that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, one probably won't scare the horses too much.

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Speaker 2: Over at the Libs, though, one potential challenger to Lee,

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Speaker 2: Andrew Hasty, withdrew from the race on Friday Friday citing

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Speaker 2: a lack of support. Yesterday, key moderate front branches Anne

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Speaker 2: Rustin and Ted O'Brien continue to publicly back Lee. Both

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Speaker 2: discount of the prospect of leadership challenges. Parliamentary sitting fortnite,

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Speaker 2: Brian the Deputy Leader, said it so long as Angus Taylor,

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Speaker 2: the other potential challenger, stayed on the opposition front bench,

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Speaker 2: he was duty bound to support the leader. Lee's given

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Speaker 2: a Little Proud until the end of this week to

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Speaker 2: rejoin the coalition or she'll fill the Nationals eight shadow

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Speaker 2: cabinet positions with Liberals. Now, if they don't do that,

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Speaker 2: that means the split is effectively permanent until the next election,

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Speaker 2: which is three years away, two years away, I supposed

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Speaker 2: Now it's going to be very interesting week in politics. Michael,

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Speaker 2: maybe they'll we might have seen some policy. No, they're

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Speaker 2: probably not.

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Speaker 1: Don't be silly. Sure that suggests that they're actually going

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Speaker 1: to do some governing and some remember and this is

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Speaker 1: what we've talked about as well, the fact that the

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Speaker 1: whole point of having a strong opposition is to ensure

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Speaker 1: there is good government, good policy, good governance. And at

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Speaker 1: the moment, while ever there is chaos in both of

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Speaker 1: the conservative parties in terms of the Liberals and the Nationals,

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Speaker 1: you're just not getting that strong opposition. A.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: Ah, goodness man. Anyway, step down from the high horse, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Let's keep going to the rest of us, all right.

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Speaker 1: One from Friday, nine Entertainment, Sure it's getting out of

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Speaker 1: radio announcing a deal to sell its network of talkback

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Speaker 1: stations to pub baron Arthur Laundy and his family for

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Speaker 1: fifty six million dollars, which, considering they've been talking about

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Speaker 1: potential prices around the forty million dollar mark, fifty six

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Speaker 1: million dollars is not a bad price for nine to get.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I reckon. Matt Stanton, the chief executive of nine,

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Speaker 2: is pretty happy at the moment. Of course. The deal

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Speaker 2: includes two GB your alma mater. Three aw they're both

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Speaker 2: the number one stations in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. At

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Speaker 2: the same time, Nine's buying outdoor advertising group QMS for

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Speaker 2: eight hundred and fifty million dollars using profits proceeds from

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Speaker 2: its sale of domain last year. Matt Stanton said the

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Speaker 2: deals would create a more efficient, higher growth companies, with

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Speaker 2: QMS allowing advertisers and nine itself to reach audiences from

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Speaker 2: sofa to street. There you go. Nine Entertainment Chairs closed

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Speaker 2: five percent high on Friday, So obviously investors think it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good deal too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, Okay. Turning to international news now and the

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Speaker 1: latest trove of Epstein correspondence released over the weekend highlight

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Speaker 1: the relationship between the sex offender and high profile political

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Speaker 1: and business leaders. Though they do bro you would say,

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Speaker 1: little light new light at least on his relationship with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the pretty astounding things in their emails.

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Speaker 2: From an account that appeared to belong to Jeffrey Epstein

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Speaker 2: claimed Microsoft co founder Bill Gates tied to hide a

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Speaker 2: sexually transmitted disease from his wife, Melinda after having sex

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Speaker 2: with Russian girls. This is according to Financial times, all

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Speaker 2: allegations only a spakesperson for Gates of the claims were

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Speaker 2: absolutely absurd and completely false. The file show Epstein's connections

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Speaker 2: with powerful figures including former US President Bill Clinton, billionaire

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Speaker 2: Tesla owner Elon Musk, and of course Gates. There were

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Speaker 2: more emails and picks involving Andrew mount Batton Windsor, former

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Speaker 2: Prince Andrew several where he was leaning over an unidentified female.

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Speaker 2: Emails also indicated Epstein had financially supported mount Baton, Windsor's

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Speaker 2: former wife, Sarah Ferguson for several years. All quite to

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Speaker 2: Adreke Michael. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. Canadian American rock star Sean Neil Young is offering Greenlanders.

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Speaker 1: You would love this story. You'd be a Neil Young fan,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't she.

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Speaker 2: Love Neil Young Harvest Moon one of the great songs

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Speaker 2: of all time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's offering Greenlanders a year's free access to his

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Speaker 1: archives and what he hopes will quote ease some of

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Speaker 1: the unwarranted stress and threats they are receiving from the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration. Supporters say Sean that he truly has a

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Speaker 1: heart of gold. Did you like that one?

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Speaker 2: I did? He has got a hearted girl. He highly

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Speaker 2: political Neil Young vocal critic of Trump, of course, he

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Speaker 2: announced the offer of peace and love on his website,

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Speaker 2: where he added that he hoped other organizations will follow

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Speaker 2: in the spirit of our example. He called the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration our unpopular and hopefully temporary government. Young has a

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Speaker 2: history of activism. In twenty twenty, he took legal action

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Speaker 2: to try to stop Trump from using his music at

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Speaker 2: campaign rallies. He also called them people to boycott Amazon

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Speaker 2: owner Jeff Bezos's donations to the Trump campaign, according to

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Speaker 2: the BBC. In twenty twenty four, Young ended a two

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Speaker 2: year boycott of streaming giants Spotify, which he had started

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Speaker 2: in opposition to the platform streaming Joe Rogan's podcast. So

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Speaker 2: he has some form here, Neil Young. Anyway, this time

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Speaker 2: round he's offer Greenland as a year's free access to

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Speaker 2: his music.

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Speaker 1: There you go up next Fear and Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 1: It is the week Ahead today with Stephen Coculus, all

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Speaker 1: about the Reserve Bank board meeting today and tomorrow. We're

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Speaker 1: just coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on

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Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is where you sign up for the phenomenally present,

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Speaker 1: present newsletter. I don't want to overstate it. I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to say it is there. It is present, it

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Speaker 1: is phenomenally present. You get the newsletter in your inboxer

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Speaker 1: every morning, punctual. There we go, phenomenally punctual newsletter every

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Speaker 1: morning by six am. It is there. Sign up it

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Speaker 1: is free Fearinggreed dot com dot au, or I'll put

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Speaker 1: a link in today's show notes.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: The second of February twenty twenty six. Make sure you're

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Speaker 1: following the podcast, and please join us online on LinkedIn

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Speaker 1: and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.