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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A where we

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Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer. Good morning Michael,

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Speaker 1: and a very good morning to you. Adam Lang.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Good morning.

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Speaker 3: Sean, morning Adam.

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Speaker 1: Today, gentlemen, we are asking the big question of what

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Speaker 1: is going to happen to radio in this country. Yes,

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Speaker 1: and see already you can see Adam is excited about

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Speaker 1: this topic because Adam, you have worked at the highest

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Speaker 1: level in radio for a number of years and so

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Speaker 1: this is a topic where we are really going to

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Speaker 1: be relying heavily on you. But a bit of context.

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Speaker 1: Right now radio is in Australia is in a state

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Speaker 1: of flux. Right now. There are big changes happening. We've

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Speaker 1: got seven West Media merging with Southern Cross Media, owner

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Speaker 1: of Triple M and Hit Networks. We've got arn the

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Speaker 1: owner of Kiss and the Pure Gold Networks changing CEOs

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Speaker 1: in the midst of a flagging effort to get Kyle

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Speaker 1: and Jackie Oh, the big rating success out of Sydney,

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Speaker 1: to have any kind of rating success in Melbourne. We've

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Speaker 1: got nine Entertainment flagging the potential sale of its talk

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Speaker 1: radio network including two GB and three a W. And

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Speaker 1: then we've got ABC Radio struggling in various markets trying

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Speaker 1: to regain the audience that it once had and in

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Speaker 1: many respects it's relevance Adam to you in an age

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Speaker 1: of podcasts, and I can think of one that presents

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Speaker 1: a very good alternative to any other listening out there.

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Speaker 1: But in an age of podcasts and Spotify, Ye, that's

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Speaker 1: the one that is it? No, my dad wrote a

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Speaker 1: porno have you Have you listened to that one yet?

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Speaker 3: It is great? I mean, it's all good anyway.

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Speaker 1: But age of podcasts right where you can pick a

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Speaker 1: topic that is based on exactly what you want to

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Speaker 1: listen to and you can listen to it when you

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Speaker 1: want to. And in an age of Spotify where you

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Speaker 1: can choose the music that you listen to and you

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Speaker 1: can curate your own playlist and listen to it anywhere,

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Speaker 1: and you can use AI to help suggest songs that

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Speaker 1: match your mood. Does radio Adam still have a future?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: It does, but it's changing a lot. And so the

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Speaker 2: industry body was once called commercial Radio Australia and about

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Speaker 2: two years ago, not quite, it changed its name to

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Speaker 2: Commercial Radio and Audio, so it kept the CRA, but

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Speaker 2: just kept change what the A stood for, right, So.

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Speaker 3: Not going to save and Adam change your name. Ain't

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Speaker 3: going to save.

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Speaker 2: It if only were that simple. But it is a

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Speaker 2: reflection on just how much change is going on. Similarly,

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Speaker 2: just in the last week, CRA have announced that they're

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Speaker 2: canceling the radio awards that used to be held annually,

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Speaker 2: and so another symbol, if you like, of the change

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Speaker 2: in the industry. Then, as you pointed out, Michael, this

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Speaker 2: has just been a bonanza week for radio businesses, with

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Speaker 2: seven Way Southern Cross merging nine reputedly selling their assets.

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Speaker 2: But they were also in talks to get together with

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Speaker 2: Southern Cross Austereo, so out of one form of radio

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Speaker 2: and into another. So you have so many things changing

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Speaker 2: at the same time alongside this. As you've just inferred,

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Speaker 2: I think podcasting is booming, so audio itself is booming,

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Speaker 2: it's just the format. The linear radio broadcast world is

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Speaker 2: certainly declining in terms of its reach because more people

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Speaker 2: are choosing the convenience of audio on demand. Now a

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Speaker 2: lot of the time it's the same thing. It's radio

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Speaker 2: being heard on a mobile phone or podcast being listened

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Speaker 2: to later than they were brought cast. But so much

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Speaker 2: of this is new, So there's so many new digital

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Speaker 2: competitive entrants into this market, and the business model is changing.

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Speaker 2: From a commercial side, advertisers really enjoy knowing with digital

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Speaker 2: advertising that their message got through to exactly how many

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Speaker 2: people when it was downloaded where it was downloaded, rather

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Speaker 2: than the survey methodology that supports linear TV linear radio.

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Speaker 2: So you're seeing from both an audience appetite a real

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Speaker 2: increase in digital audio demand and on an advertiser side,

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Speaker 2: a real increase in digital audio demand, and that is

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Speaker 2: putting those business models under change and they're looking for

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Speaker 2: ways to keep moving into this new arena. It's not

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Speaker 2: easy that the net sum of staff is that there's

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Speaker 2: more redundancies than new employments, so the people are leaving

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Speaker 2: the business and it is grappling with change.

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Speaker 1: And I think as well when we go to I

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Speaker 1: don't think you can write off radio at any point soon,

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Speaker 1: but you right, it is changing, and especially then with

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Speaker 1: Spotify and the ability to you hear this common argument

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Speaker 1: and it's the same as well with kind of people

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Speaker 1: saying newspapers have no future, et cetera, because you can

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Speaker 1: get the information wherever you want to on the Internet

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Speaker 1: as well. But it comes back to yes, Spotify, you

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Speaker 1: can go and you can kind of curate your own playlist,

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Speaker 1: you can put your own music there and okay, great,

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Speaker 1: you can listen to what you want to. And it

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Speaker 1: puts more importance than on personality and the engagement and

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Speaker 1: the community that's built around radio shows. Say, for instance,

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Speaker 1: then like on Nova that we do a lot of

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Speaker 1: work with Fitzi and Whipper and Kate Ritchie on Breakfast, but

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Speaker 1: also than Kyle and Jackie Oh. And you look then

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Speaker 1: to these shows that have built this community and built

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Speaker 1: this engagement and the personality around and it really puts

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Speaker 1: more importance on that. It's less about the music and

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Speaker 1: more about the things that bind it all together, that

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Speaker 1: make you actually want to keep coming back to these shows.

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Speaker 1: And so I think that's going to be such an

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Speaker 1: important part well into the future for radio. Sean. For

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Speaker 1: you a question that I'm thinking this is more the

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Speaker 1: business side, right of.

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Speaker 3: Well, can I give my two cents worth on radio first?

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Speaker 3: Or please?

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Speaker 2: Yes?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know what radio has got which newspapers have

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Speaker 4: and it might be a demographic thing. It's got a cadence.

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Speaker 4: So if you have someone that you like listening to,

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Speaker 4: you don't have to think about it. You just push

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Speaker 4: a button and there they are in the morning, There

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Speaker 4: they are a drive, There they are late at night,

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Speaker 4: you're doing a quiz. And I think that's a competitive

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Speaker 4: advantage that radio has over audio totally, except what Adam says.

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Speaker 4: Audio is booming, podcasts are booming in a place to

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Speaker 4: be et cetera. But there are just certain kind of

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Speaker 4: home comforts that radio provide that others can't. I would argue, anyway,

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Speaker 4: can I.

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Speaker 2: Throw in some numbers to that sean to reinforce what

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Speaker 2: you said? And we know that metropolitan and regional ratings

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Speaker 2: in radio are done differently, so I just speak to

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Speaker 2: Metropolitan for a moment. This is people over the age

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Speaker 2: of fourteen. It's twelve and a half million every week

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Speaker 2: are listening to radio. So we're still talking about a

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Speaker 2: pretty vibrant connection with takes.

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Speaker 3: The drivers in the country.

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Speaker 2: But you know the habits that we all have, and

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Speaker 2: you know, when I get into my car with my kids,

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Speaker 2: it goes straight and nov you know, that's their choice,

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Speaker 2: and they do exactly what you said, not just me

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Speaker 2: doing it, but they hit that button and they go

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Speaker 2: straight and over. That's what they want to listen to.

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Speaker 2: Don't have to think about it. Someone's curating the music.

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Speaker 2: The people on air are really good, so you know

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Speaker 2: it's made easy. So there is great strength in that.

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Speaker 1: If we look at one of the other big stories

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Speaker 1: around this week that does involve radio, and that is

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Speaker 1: seven West Media merging with Southern Cross Media. Right have

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Speaker 1: we kind of seen this happen before with the merger,

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Speaker 1: the merger between nine and Fairfax and now nine are

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Speaker 1: selling off the radio network. So essentially I know that

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Speaker 1: there was more pieces that to those businesses coming together

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Speaker 1: when you had nine and Fairfax and Macquarie Media being

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Speaker 1: consumed within that, and now nine is selling off the

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Speaker 1: radio network. Why then would seven West and Southern Cross

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Speaker 1: be doing this bringing radio network stations in when I

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Speaker 1: clearly nine network and nine Entertainment hasn't seen it as

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Speaker 1: a success and is now looking to split off the

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Speaker 1: audio part of the business. Are we going to see

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Speaker 1: seven West Southern Cross Media go through the same process

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Speaker 1: now just ten years afterwards?

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Speaker 4: I'll give the uninformed answer and then it's I don't

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Speaker 4: know why you buy publishing assets. I think that's a

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Speaker 4: tricky one. And they are buying publishing assets buying free

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Speaker 4: to wear. Now there's certainly a lot of cache in

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Speaker 4: free to wear. But you know what, the float of

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Speaker 4: seven West, I think, Michael you pointed out yesterday, went

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Speaker 4: and floated in twenty eleven at three billion. The company's

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Speaker 4: now worth five hundred million or something or.

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Speaker 3: Rather like that.

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Speaker 4: So they're really hard markets. I mean, obviously they're going

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Speaker 4: to be synergies in running different mediums.

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Speaker 2: But.

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Speaker 4: Wow, I think it's tricky. Adam, can you say something

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Speaker 4: that's more informed than what I just said.

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Speaker 3: Please?

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So look, I think no a great nine sort of

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Speaker 2: buying Fairfax first and then picking up the share of

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Speaker 2: Macquari Media that it didn't already own was two sequential

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Speaker 2: steps to merge what was publishing assets television and radio.

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Speaker 2: And you would argue that the integration of radio has

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Speaker 2: had limited success and that is consequently why they're looking

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Speaker 2: to dispose of it, sell it and were looking at

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Speaker 2: SCA to join with. So they weren't necessarily looking at

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Speaker 2: getting out of audio. They're looking at getting out of

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Speaker 2: the audio they already had. Now, on that point, you know,

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Speaker 2: we know too that SCA and a ar N we're

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Speaker 2: talking about merging. So SCA had played itself into a

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Speaker 2: pretty good position leading with their digital platform Listener, and

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Speaker 2: so in audio they've been pretty strong and the number

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Speaker 2: of stations they have is immense, so they could be

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Speaker 2: an attractive target. Clearly, they've got together with Seven now.

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Speaker 2: Both Seven and SCA have said they weren't going to

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Speaker 2: do this. In the past. Seven said, you know, they

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Speaker 2: disposed of their red wave radio assets, and Southern Costostereo

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Speaker 2: disposed of their TV assets, and now Lo and behold

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Speaker 2: they're all getting together and so you know, times have

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Speaker 2: changed and that pressure has become more acute. I think

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Speaker 2: the speed of change is quickening in this. So you know,

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Speaker 2: what might happen now? This is really interesting what might

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Speaker 2: happen with Arian? As we know the executive chief executive

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Speaker 2: has changed from Kieran Davis to Michael Stevenson. Then Nova,

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Speaker 2: what will they do now? They're owned by Lachlan Murdock's

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Speaker 2: Illyria Investment, so Lachlan also the head of News Limited.

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Speaker 2: So interestingly, you know, could those two assets be combined?

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Speaker 2: They haven't been today, so there's no reason to suggest

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Speaker 2: that or change. But could Newslimited be a buyer of

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Speaker 2: nine Radio? In essence, you know that the radio assets

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Speaker 2: that nine, another publisher has, may have a really good

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Speaker 2: place within News Limited. This is complete speculation on my behalf,

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Speaker 2: but you can see the synergies of some of the

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Speaker 2: journalists in the News Limited stable and the nine Radio stable,

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Speaker 2: and so that that could be a very interesting potential idea.

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Speaker 1: Sean Michael, I just wondered whether in future should we

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Speaker 1: make our Sunday episode of Fear and Greed? Just ask Adam,

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Speaker 1: yes where where we just sent We just send in

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Speaker 1: a question from from you or from me, and just

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Speaker 1: and Adam answers it because God, you give some good information. Adam,

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Speaker 1: like that was a really interesting insight.

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Speaker 2: Look, can I throw in one further thing here?

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Speaker 3: The problems you can't stop him, But.

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Speaker 2: Just briefly, you know, in this what was traditional briefly

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Speaker 2: media model, right, there are government rules that still exist

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Speaker 2: and there is limits on who can own how much

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Speaker 2: of what medium they seemingly ever since the Internet came along,

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Speaker 2: well you know it used to be two out of

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Speaker 2: three newspapers television radio you could own all three in

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Speaker 2: a market. But does that really matter? Anymore. You know

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Speaker 2: that the number of voices in media has changed profoundly

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Speaker 2: meta Google alphabet. There's so much here in terms of

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Speaker 2: international players in what could be called a media space

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Speaker 2: that that regulation should perhaps be looked out again too,

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Speaker 2: because there have been limits in the past on what

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Speaker 2: any of the Australian entities could do.

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Speaker 1: I think you have adequately answered the question.

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Speaker 3: But I think so. I think I need a cup

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Speaker 3: of tea now. I've given us much to ponder.

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Speaker 1: It genuinely is, and it does feel as though the

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Speaker 1: changes that we have seen this week are just the

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Speaker 1: beginning that there is going to be a lot happening,

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Speaker 1: and it could actually all happen really quite quickly. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is the season at which we see changes being

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Speaker 1: made to at radio programs, like the killing season essentially,

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Speaker 1: which is a terribly kind of crude way to put it,

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Speaker 1: but it is what it's kind of referred to, where

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Speaker 1: radio shows are told that they won't be continuing into

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Speaker 1: the new year, and suddenly we are seeing the same

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Speaker 1: level of change happening though at the company level, which

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Speaker 1: is just extraordinary. Okay, I think we're done. If you, Adam,

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Speaker 1: is there anything else that you wish to add and

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Speaker 1: I's Sean even as I said that, just then I'm like, no,

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Speaker 1: don't say it, don't say it. And then I said it. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: you're done, You're good done. Oh okay, thank you Adam,

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Speaker 1: thank you kindly, and thank you Sean.

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Speaker 3: Thank you Adam, and thank you Michael. But you did nothing,

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Speaker 3: thank you.

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Speaker 1: I really didn't know.

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Speaker 3: This is all.

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Speaker 1: This is all, Adam. If you've got a question that

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Speaker 1: you would like us, or more specifically Adam, to tackle,

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Speaker 1: then send it through on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, or at

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Speaker 1: Fearandgreed dot com dot au. I'm Michael Thompson and this

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Speaker 1: is Fear and Greed to Q and A