WEBVTT - Trump’s plans for the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Barter's victory last week was Israel's Prime Minister of Benjamin Netanyahu,

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<v Speaker 1>and it wasn't just a political message. It was warm

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<v Speaker 1>and personal, a sign of their close relationship. Netanyahu's far

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<v Speaker 1>right national security minister has cities sure Trump would see

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<v Speaker 1>either eye with Israel, but President e lec Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>also claimed he'll be able to end the war in

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East. Dana Strill was the most senior civilian

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<v Speaker 1>that the Pentagon focused on the Middle East on October seven,

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<v Speaker 1>before she left the Pentagon in December. Today she tells

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<v Speaker 1>us what a second Trump term means through the region

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<v Speaker 1>and whether we could see an end of the war

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza. It's Thursday, November fourty Dinah, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for speaking to me. You were working at the Pentagon

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<v Speaker 1>on October seven. Can you describe to me what that

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<v Speaker 1>was like.

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<v Speaker 2>The first phone call I received was about two am

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<v Speaker 2>in the morning. So for any of your listeners who

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<v Speaker 2>have watched West Wing or shows like that, all the Pentagon,

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<v Speaker 2>the State Department, the White House all have switchboards where

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<v Speaker 2>we can call each other in the middle of the night,

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<v Speaker 2>and mine was set to always ring if somebody needed me.

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<v Speaker 2>So in the early morning in the United States on

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's chief of staff

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<v Speaker 2>called me and had described a situation in which Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>had broken out of Gaza and was running through Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>killing and murdering Israelis. And I went to the Pentagon

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<v Speaker 2>and we monitor the situation all day, both with Secretary

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<v Speaker 2>of Defense Austin, President Biden and others.

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<v Speaker 1>And had did it end up shifting the US's position

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<v Speaker 1>in relation to the Middle East Gazer in Israel?

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<v Speaker 2>It shifted it tremendously. So we had spent the first

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<v Speaker 2>three years of the Biden administration really focused on other threats.

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<v Speaker 2>So generally speaking, we viewed Iran as the center of

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<v Speaker 2>gravity for destabilizing activities across the Middle East, and Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>proxies like Hezbollah or the Huthis in Yemen, as increasingly

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<v Speaker 2>sophisticated in their capabilities and able to challenge not only

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<v Speaker 2>Israel but also the United States and others. And the

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<v Speaker 2>Biden administration had also spent time very much focused on

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<v Speaker 2>the West Bank and the situation there, and we generally

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<v Speaker 2>assessed that in Gaza, this situation was stable in the

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<v Speaker 2>sense that Hamas and the leaders of Hamas had political

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<v Speaker 2>governance over that area and did not want to compromise

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<v Speaker 2>that position. We had focused on not having a military

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<v Speaker 2>first strategy and then focusing with our partners on ways

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<v Speaker 2>to bring security instability to the Middle East that did

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<v Speaker 2>not rely on the military as the first instrument of

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<v Speaker 2>choice but really the last resort, and that meant focusing

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<v Speaker 2>on diplomacy and humanitarian aid winding down conflicts. And obviously

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<v Speaker 2>that all completely collapsed on October seventh as we struggled

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<v Speaker 2>to understand both the level and scale of the violence

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<v Speaker 2>taking place and really the entirety of military efforts since

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh has been working largely to prevent World War III,

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<v Speaker 2>to prevent escalation of the conflict in a way that

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<v Speaker 2>stability and security can be brought back to the region.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah who says he's had

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<v Speaker 2>three conversations with US President elect Donald Trump since his

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<v Speaker 2>election victory.

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<v Speaker 1>And when I have President Elect Donald Trump sit to

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<v Speaker 1>ty Guy over to the presidency in January, so hey

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<v Speaker 1>would you describe their relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Yahoo, Well, it's.

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<v Speaker 3>Clearly very warm.

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<v Speaker 2>There were plenty of news leaks that Netsan Yahoo and

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<v Speaker 2>Trump were speaking before his election. Netsan Yahoo was one

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<v Speaker 2>of the first world leaders to congratulate President elect Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>and they have reportedly had multiple phone calls since. But

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<v Speaker 2>even though Trump in the campaign stated that his administration

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<v Speaker 2>will be the most pro Israel administration, it's important to

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<v Speaker 2>also reflect that Trump Number one also said what Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>doing in Gaza is bad for Israel. It's bad for

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<v Speaker 2>what he calls the pr and it's eroded. They're standing

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<v Speaker 2>on the international stage.

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<v Speaker 4>They're releasing the most panous, most horrible types of buildings

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<v Speaker 4>falling down, and people are imagining there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people in those buildings or people in those buildings, and

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<v Speaker 4>they don't like it. And I don't know why they release,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, wartime shots like that. I guess it makes

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<v Speaker 4>them look tough, but to me, it doesn't make them

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<v Speaker 4>look tough. They're losing the PR war. They're losing it big.

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<v Speaker 2>And Trump has also promised the Lebanese population. He's promised

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<v Speaker 2>other leaders in the region, the Arab leaders and he's

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<v Speaker 2>made promises to Palestinians as well that he's going to

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<v Speaker 2>bring peace.

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<v Speaker 4>I want to see the Middle East get back to

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<v Speaker 4>peace and real peace. But the piece that's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be a lasting piece, and that's going to happen, I

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<v Speaker 4>feel really truly confident.

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<v Speaker 2>The challenge we have right now is that there's absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>no specificity or plans about exactly how he's going to

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<v Speaker 2>bring peace, and what Israel's requirements are are probably not

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<v Speaker 2>going to look like what we think peace would look like,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the end of military operations. And the reality

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<v Speaker 2>is after more than a year of high intensity military

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<v Speaker 2>operations in Gaza, Hamas is still there. And we also,

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<v Speaker 2>I think need to remember that Trump does not only

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<v Speaker 2>have warm relationships with Prime Minister Nets in Yahoo, he

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<v Speaker 2>also has really warm relationships with the leaders of the

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<v Speaker 2>Arab part of the Middle East, specifically in Abu Dhabi

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<v Speaker 2>and in Riod, in the United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia.

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<v Speaker 3>And these leaders are very clear on the need.

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<v Speaker 2>For a path to a Palestinian state on dignity and

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<v Speaker 2>humanitarian aid and more than humanitarian aid, and to recognize

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<v Speaker 2>those outcomes, there will have to be political concessions by

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<v Speaker 2>the government of Israel, led by Prime Minister nets In Yahoo,

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<v Speaker 2>and here, I think.

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<v Speaker 3>Is where we're going to see some significant tension.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break. One of the key figures Trump will

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<v Speaker 1>be listening to one of hay Mag's decisions about how

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<v Speaker 1>Hey deals with the Middle East, Diana. Trump is finalously

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<v Speaker 1>unpredictable and oscillation in this. So can we say a

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<v Speaker 1>darling in Bacco support for Israel during Trump's second.

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<v Speaker 2>Tim First of all, what's important to recognize at this

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<v Speaker 2>moment in time is that there's different camps of foreign

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<v Speaker 2>policy thinkers within the Trump circle, and there's clearly an

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<v Speaker 2>isolation is strained and that reflects, I think very much

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<v Speaker 2>some of the debate within the Republican Party and the

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<v Speaker 2>wing of the Republican Party that has very much supported

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<v Speaker 2>President elect Trump. There are also other parts of his

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<v Speaker 2>inner circle who believe that to protect America you actually

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<v Speaker 2>need a strong foreign policy, and some of the outcomes

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<v Speaker 2>that they have articulated, whether it's ending the Russian invasion

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine, whether it's be being more tough on China,

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<v Speaker 2>or whether it's being more tough on Iran. Frankly, that

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<v Speaker 2>is not something America can do alone, it's going to

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<v Speaker 2>have to do it with allies and partners. And to

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<v Speaker 2>do with allies and partners means you're going to have

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<v Speaker 2>to be engaged in the world. And so I think

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<v Speaker 2>what the resources and the manpower, the personnel, and the

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<v Speaker 2>attention that Trump and his team are going to put

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<v Speaker 2>into this. There's some inherent tentions we want to burden

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<v Speaker 2>share with the whole world. We don't want to do

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<v Speaker 2>it ourselves. We want you all to do it. But

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<v Speaker 2>the rest of the world isn't going to do it

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<v Speaker 2>if they don't see America putting some skin in the game.

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<v Speaker 2>And those are some of the conversations that I think

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump is going to encounter when the rubber meets

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<v Speaker 2>the road when he gets into office.

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<v Speaker 3>In January, the.

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<v Speaker 1>New York Times reported this way that Iranian operatees had

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<v Speaker 1>discussed a plan to assessinate Donald Trump given that kuld

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<v Speaker 1>a Trump administration sawn off on open warfare against our own.

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<v Speaker 3>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>The only articulation we clearly have from any member of

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's circle thus far about open word or with Iran

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<v Speaker 2>would be Vice President elect JD. Vance And at the

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<v Speaker 2>one vice presidential debate that was held.

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<v Speaker 3>Both tim Walds and.

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<v Speaker 2>Jadvance were asked very directly if they would support preemptive military.

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<v Speaker 3>Strikes on Iran, and jade Vance said nothing about America's role.

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<v Speaker 2>All he said is that the United States should support Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>and whatever Israel wants to do, it is up to

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<v Speaker 2>Israel what they think they need to do to keep

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<v Speaker 2>their country safe.

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<v Speaker 1>And we should support allies wherever they are when they're

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<v Speaker 1>fighting the bad guys. I think that's the right approach

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<v Speaker 1>to take with the Israel question.

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<v Speaker 2>And what we haven't heard from President Trump or anyone

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<v Speaker 2>yet in what's emerging as his foreign policy circle is

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<v Speaker 2>a declarative or definitive articulation of what the policy will

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<v Speaker 2>be toward Iran. So is it to prevent a nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>weapon state? Is it to change the regime? Is it

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<v Speaker 2>something else? They actually haven't been very clear on that.

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<v Speaker 1>The next Trump administrations expected to try and increase the

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<v Speaker 1>number of Arabistites with diplomatic ties to Israel, helial Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia factoring to

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<v Speaker 1>Sadi Arabia coming in to ply more of a row.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, again, here are some opportunities because President Trump has

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<v Speaker 3>a very warm relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,

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<v Speaker 3>Mohammad bin Selman. He also the Trump Company has extensive

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<v Speaker 3>business interests in Saudi Arabia, as do people like his

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<v Speaker 3>son in law Jared Kushner. One one I think critical

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<v Speaker 3>thing to recognize about Jared Kushner is that during the

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<v Speaker 3>first Trump administration he maintained a constant dialogue with the

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<v Speaker 3>leaders of the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>They had ready access to him, and he was a

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<v Speaker 2>key architect of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>of Israel's normalization in the Middle East. The other critical

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<v Speaker 2>aspect effect of Kushner's vision is that it's not just

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<v Speaker 2>about the US military, but it's very much about seeing

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<v Speaker 2>especially in the Gulf the Middle East, as not just

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<v Speaker 2>a regional leader, but a global leader. With the global

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<v Speaker 2>interest of these sovereign wealth funds. They're focused on artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 2>renewable energy, that there are tremendous investment opportunities as well

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<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East, and so Jared Kushner has his

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<v Speaker 2>own investment fund and has worked very extensively with the

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<v Speaker 2>leaders of the Middle East on that. He appears to

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<v Speaker 2>not want a formal role in the second Trump White House,

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<v Speaker 2>but there is I think no question that this is

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<v Speaker 2>a very close family and that he will serve as

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<v Speaker 2>an important back channel between the leaders of the region

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<v Speaker 2>and his.

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<v Speaker 3>Father in law.

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<v Speaker 2>The question here, though, is that for the Saudis to

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<v Speaker 2>do this, there's going to need to be something on

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<v Speaker 2>a Palestinian horizon, for a Palestinian state, and there I

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<v Speaker 2>think the open question is whether Netan Yahoo in his

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<v Speaker 2>current governing coalition can get to anything that would be

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<v Speaker 2>satisfactory to the Saudist And if he can't, what sort

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<v Speaker 2>of anger does that cause in President Trump?

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<v Speaker 3>We'll read about it on Twitter the next day.

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<v Speaker 1>How is this guy's the way? There's sixty seven days

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<v Speaker 1>left until Trump takes office. What will thise mons look like?

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<v Speaker 1>The people in the ground in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>I worry that they don't look very good. And here's why.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump has actually been quite clear publicly and then from

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<v Speaker 2>all the leaked phone calls, that he wants it to

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<v Speaker 2>be over by his inauguration. So if Neta Yahoo perceives

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<v Speaker 2>that he has this deadline of January twentieth to wrap

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<v Speaker 2>up the military part of this campaign, I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>a real serious probability that the military operations escalate before

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<v Speaker 2>January twentieth, So that for Netsan Yahoo and for his

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<v Speaker 2>governing coalition, and to prepare them for some of the

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<v Speaker 2>concessions they might need to consider. On the other side

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<v Speaker 2>of Trump's inauguration, they do what they perceive as maximum

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<v Speaker 2>damage to Hamas now, and so what that means for

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<v Speaker 2>civilians in Gaza is actually more more pressure, more military operations.

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<v Speaker 1>Diana, thank you so much for your tom Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>having me also in the East today. US President elect

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has nominated FORMAT Governor Mark Huckabee as the

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<v Speaker 1>next US Ambassador to Israel. Hakkabee has been a vocal

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<v Speaker 1>support of Israel throughout his career, more recently criticizing President

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<v Speaker 1>Jay Biden for pressuring Israel to moderate his campaign in

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza and his opposed calls for a ceasefire. And despite

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<v Speaker 1>pledges from nations at COP twenty eight a year ago,

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<v Speaker 1>the burning of coal, oil, and gas continue to rise.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty four. New data released at the UN's

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<v Speaker 1>COP twenty nine Climate Conference indicates fossil fuel emissions will

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<v Speaker 1>rise zero point eight percent this year globally, and it

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<v Speaker 1>projected to be almost eight percent higher than in twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 1>the year the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. I'm Daniel James.

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<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. We'll be back tomorrow