Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.
Speaker 1: One of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Barter's victory last week was Israel's Prime Minister of Benjamin Netanyahu,
Speaker 1: and it wasn't just a political message. It was warm
Speaker 1: and personal, a sign of their close relationship. Netanyahu's far
Speaker 1: right national security minister has cities sure Trump would see
Speaker 1: either eye with Israel, but President e lec Trump has
Speaker 1: also claimed he'll be able to end the war in
Speaker 1: the Middle East. Dana Strill was the most senior civilian
Speaker 1: that the Pentagon focused on the Middle East on October seven,
Speaker 1: before she left the Pentagon in December. Today she tells
Speaker 1: us what a second Trump term means through the region
Speaker 1: and whether we could see an end of the war
Speaker 1: in Gaza. It's Thursday, November fourty Dinah, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for speaking to me. You were working at the Pentagon
Speaker 1: on October seven. Can you describe to me what that
Speaker 1: was like.
Speaker 2: The first phone call I received was about two am
Speaker 2: in the morning. So for any of your listeners who
Speaker 2: have watched West Wing or shows like that, all the Pentagon,
Speaker 2: the State Department, the White House all have switchboards where
Speaker 2: we can call each other in the middle of the night,
Speaker 2: and mine was set to always ring if somebody needed me.
Speaker 2: So in the early morning in the United States on
Speaker 2: October seventh, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's chief of staff
Speaker 2: called me and had described a situation in which Hamas
Speaker 2: had broken out of Gaza and was running through Israel,
Speaker 2: killing and murdering Israelis. And I went to the Pentagon
Speaker 2: and we monitor the situation all day, both with Secretary
Speaker 2: of Defense Austin, President Biden and others.
Speaker 1: And had did it end up shifting the US's position
Speaker 1: in relation to the Middle East Gazer in Israel?
Speaker 2: It shifted it tremendously. So we had spent the first
Speaker 2: three years of the Biden administration really focused on other threats.
Speaker 2: So generally speaking, we viewed Iran as the center of
Speaker 2: gravity for destabilizing activities across the Middle East, and Iran's
Speaker 2: proxies like Hezbollah or the Huthis in Yemen, as increasingly
Speaker 2: sophisticated in their capabilities and able to challenge not only
Speaker 2: Israel but also the United States and others. And the
Speaker 2: Biden administration had also spent time very much focused on
Speaker 2: the West Bank and the situation there, and we generally
Speaker 2: assessed that in Gaza, this situation was stable in the
Speaker 2: sense that Hamas and the leaders of Hamas had political
Speaker 2: governance over that area and did not want to compromise
Speaker 2: that position. We had focused on not having a military
Speaker 2: first strategy and then focusing with our partners on ways
Speaker 2: to bring security instability to the Middle East that did
Speaker 2: not rely on the military as the first instrument of
Speaker 2: choice but really the last resort, and that meant focusing
Speaker 2: on diplomacy and humanitarian aid winding down conflicts. And obviously
Speaker 2: that all completely collapsed on October seventh as we struggled
Speaker 2: to understand both the level and scale of the violence
Speaker 2: taking place and really the entirety of military efforts since
Speaker 2: October seventh has been working largely to prevent World War III,
Speaker 2: to prevent escalation of the conflict in a way that
Speaker 2: stability and security can be brought back to the region.
Speaker 2: It's very Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah who says he's had
Speaker 2: three conversations with US President elect Donald Trump since his
Speaker 2: election victory.
Speaker 1: And when I have President Elect Donald Trump sit to
Speaker 1: ty Guy over to the presidency in January, so hey
Speaker 1: would you describe their relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Yahoo, Well, it's.
Speaker 3: Clearly very warm.
Speaker 2: There were plenty of news leaks that Netsan Yahoo and
Speaker 2: Trump were speaking before his election. Netsan Yahoo was one
Speaker 2: of the first world leaders to congratulate President elect Trump,
Speaker 2: and they have reportedly had multiple phone calls since. But
Speaker 2: even though Trump in the campaign stated that his administration
Speaker 2: will be the most pro Israel administration, it's important to
Speaker 2: also reflect that Trump Number one also said what Israel's
Speaker 2: doing in Gaza is bad for Israel. It's bad for
Speaker 2: what he calls the pr and it's eroded. They're standing
Speaker 2: on the international stage.
Speaker 4: They're releasing the most panous, most horrible types of buildings
Speaker 4: falling down, and people are imagining there's a lot of
Speaker 4: people in those buildings or people in those buildings, and
Speaker 4: they don't like it. And I don't know why they release,
Speaker 4: you know, wartime shots like that. I guess it makes
Speaker 4: them look tough, but to me, it doesn't make them
Speaker 4: look tough. They're losing the PR war. They're losing it big.
Speaker 2: And Trump has also promised the Lebanese population. He's promised
Speaker 2: other leaders in the region, the Arab leaders and he's
Speaker 2: made promises to Palestinians as well that he's going to
Speaker 2: bring peace.
Speaker 4: I want to see the Middle East get back to
Speaker 4: peace and real peace. But the piece that's going to
Speaker 4: be a lasting piece, and that's going to happen, I
Speaker 4: feel really truly confident.
Speaker 2: The challenge we have right now is that there's absolutely
Speaker 2: no specificity or plans about exactly how he's going to
Speaker 2: bring peace, and what Israel's requirements are are probably not
Speaker 2: going to look like what we think peace would look like,
Speaker 2: which is the end of military operations. And the reality
Speaker 2: is after more than a year of high intensity military
Speaker 2: operations in Gaza, Hamas is still there. And we also,
Speaker 2: I think need to remember that Trump does not only
Speaker 2: have warm relationships with Prime Minister Nets in Yahoo, he
Speaker 2: also has really warm relationships with the leaders of the
Speaker 2: Arab part of the Middle East, specifically in Abu Dhabi
Speaker 2: and in Riod, in the United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 3: And these leaders are very clear on the need.
Speaker 2: For a path to a Palestinian state on dignity and
Speaker 2: humanitarian aid and more than humanitarian aid, and to recognize
Speaker 2: those outcomes, there will have to be political concessions by
Speaker 2: the government of Israel, led by Prime Minister nets In Yahoo,
Speaker 2: and here, I think.
Speaker 3: Is where we're going to see some significant tension.
Speaker 1: After the break. One of the key figures Trump will
Speaker 1: be listening to one of hay Mag's decisions about how
Speaker 1: Hey deals with the Middle East, Diana. Trump is finalously
Speaker 1: unpredictable and oscillation in this. So can we say a
Speaker 1: darling in Bacco support for Israel during Trump's second.
Speaker 2: Tim First of all, what's important to recognize at this
Speaker 2: moment in time is that there's different camps of foreign
Speaker 2: policy thinkers within the Trump circle, and there's clearly an
Speaker 2: isolation is strained and that reflects, I think very much
Speaker 2: some of the debate within the Republican Party and the
Speaker 2: wing of the Republican Party that has very much supported
Speaker 2: President elect Trump. There are also other parts of his
Speaker 2: inner circle who believe that to protect America you actually
Speaker 2: need a strong foreign policy, and some of the outcomes
Speaker 2: that they have articulated, whether it's ending the Russian invasion
Speaker 2: of Ukraine, whether it's be being more tough on China,
Speaker 2: or whether it's being more tough on Iran. Frankly, that
Speaker 2: is not something America can do alone, it's going to
Speaker 2: have to do it with allies and partners. And to
Speaker 2: do with allies and partners means you're going to have
Speaker 2: to be engaged in the world. And so I think
Speaker 2: what the resources and the manpower, the personnel, and the
Speaker 2: attention that Trump and his team are going to put
Speaker 2: into this. There's some inherent tentions we want to burden
Speaker 2: share with the whole world. We don't want to do
Speaker 2: it ourselves. We want you all to do it. But
Speaker 2: the rest of the world isn't going to do it
Speaker 2: if they don't see America putting some skin in the game.
Speaker 2: And those are some of the conversations that I think
Speaker 2: President Trump is going to encounter when the rubber meets
Speaker 2: the road when he gets into office.
Speaker 3: In January, the.
Speaker 1: New York Times reported this way that Iranian operatees had
Speaker 1: discussed a plan to assessinate Donald Trump given that kuld
Speaker 1: a Trump administration sawn off on open warfare against our own.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 2: The only articulation we clearly have from any member of
Speaker 2: Trump's circle thus far about open word or with Iran
Speaker 2: would be Vice President elect JD. Vance And at the
Speaker 2: one vice presidential debate that was held.
Speaker 3: Both tim Walds and.
Speaker 2: Jadvance were asked very directly if they would support preemptive military.
Speaker 3: Strikes on Iran, and jade Vance said nothing about America's role.
Speaker 2: All he said is that the United States should support Israel,
Speaker 2: and whatever Israel wants to do, it is up to
Speaker 2: Israel what they think they need to do to keep
Speaker 2: their country safe.
Speaker 1: And we should support allies wherever they are when they're
Speaker 1: fighting the bad guys. I think that's the right approach
Speaker 1: to take with the Israel question.
Speaker 2: And what we haven't heard from President Trump or anyone
Speaker 2: yet in what's emerging as his foreign policy circle is
Speaker 2: a declarative or definitive articulation of what the policy will
Speaker 2: be toward Iran. So is it to prevent a nuclear
Speaker 2: weapon state? Is it to change the regime? Is it
Speaker 2: something else? They actually haven't been very clear on that.
Speaker 1: The next Trump administrations expected to try and increase the
Speaker 1: number of Arabistites with diplomatic ties to Israel, helial Trump's
Speaker 1: relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia factoring to
Speaker 1: Sadi Arabia coming in to ply more of a row.
Speaker 3: Well, again, here are some opportunities because President Trump has
Speaker 3: a very warm relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 3: Mohammad bin Selman. He also the Trump Company has extensive
Speaker 3: business interests in Saudi Arabia, as do people like his
Speaker 3: son in law Jared Kushner. One one I think critical
Speaker 3: thing to recognize about Jared Kushner is that during the
Speaker 3: first Trump administration he maintained a constant dialogue with the
Speaker 3: leaders of the Middle East.
Speaker 2: They had ready access to him, and he was a
Speaker 2: key architect of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated the beginning
Speaker 2: of Israel's normalization in the Middle East. The other critical
Speaker 2: aspect effect of Kushner's vision is that it's not just
Speaker 2: about the US military, but it's very much about seeing
Speaker 2: especially in the Gulf the Middle East, as not just
Speaker 2: a regional leader, but a global leader. With the global
Speaker 2: interest of these sovereign wealth funds. They're focused on artificial intelligence,
Speaker 2: renewable energy, that there are tremendous investment opportunities as well
Speaker 2: in the Middle East, and so Jared Kushner has his
Speaker 2: own investment fund and has worked very extensively with the
Speaker 2: leaders of the Middle East on that. He appears to
Speaker 2: not want a formal role in the second Trump White House,
Speaker 2: but there is I think no question that this is
Speaker 2: a very close family and that he will serve as
Speaker 2: an important back channel between the leaders of the region
Speaker 2: and his.
Speaker 3: Father in law.
Speaker 2: The question here, though, is that for the Saudis to
Speaker 2: do this, there's going to need to be something on
Speaker 2: a Palestinian horizon, for a Palestinian state, and there I
Speaker 2: think the open question is whether Netan Yahoo in his
Speaker 2: current governing coalition can get to anything that would be
Speaker 2: satisfactory to the Saudist And if he can't, what sort
Speaker 2: of anger does that cause in President Trump?
Speaker 3: We'll read about it on Twitter the next day.
Speaker 1: How is this guy's the way? There's sixty seven days
Speaker 1: left until Trump takes office. What will thise mons look like?
Speaker 1: The people in the ground in Gaza.
Speaker 3: I worry that they don't look very good. And here's why.
Speaker 2: Trump has actually been quite clear publicly and then from
Speaker 2: all the leaked phone calls, that he wants it to
Speaker 2: be over by his inauguration. So if Neta Yahoo perceives
Speaker 2: that he has this deadline of January twentieth to wrap
Speaker 2: up the military part of this campaign, I think there's
Speaker 2: a real serious probability that the military operations escalate before
Speaker 2: January twentieth, So that for Netsan Yahoo and for his
Speaker 2: governing coalition, and to prepare them for some of the
Speaker 2: concessions they might need to consider. On the other side
Speaker 2: of Trump's inauguration, they do what they perceive as maximum
Speaker 2: damage to Hamas now, and so what that means for
Speaker 2: civilians in Gaza is actually more more pressure, more military operations.
Speaker 1: Diana, thank you so much for your tom Thanks for
Speaker 1: having me also in the East today. US President elect
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has nominated FORMAT Governor Mark Huckabee as the
Speaker 1: next US Ambassador to Israel. Hakkabee has been a vocal
Speaker 1: support of Israel throughout his career, more recently criticizing President
Speaker 1: Jay Biden for pressuring Israel to moderate his campaign in
Speaker 1: Gaza and his opposed calls for a ceasefire. And despite
Speaker 1: pledges from nations at COP twenty eight a year ago,
Speaker 1: the burning of coal, oil, and gas continue to rise.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four. New data released at the UN's
Speaker 1: COP twenty nine Climate Conference indicates fossil fuel emissions will
Speaker 1: rise zero point eight percent this year globally, and it
Speaker 1: projected to be almost eight percent higher than in twenty fifteen,
Speaker 1: the year the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. I'm Daniel James.
Speaker 1: This is seven am. We'll be back tomorrow