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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, August twenty, twenty twenty five. Benjamin Nettania, who

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Speaker 1: says Anthony Albanezi is a week leader who has betrayed

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Speaker 1: Israel and abandoned Australia's Jews by indicating he'll recognize Palestinian statehood.

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Speaker 1: Union leaders want a new tax on business to pay

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Speaker 1: for training workers, but employer groups.

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Speaker 2: Say that's a no go.

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Speaker 1: It's just one of the big ideas being thrashed out

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Speaker 1: at the government's economic reform roundtable. You can follow our

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Speaker 1: coverage live at the Australian dot com dot au. Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Putin is reportedly considering a meeting with Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: Vladimi Zelenski of Ukraine. That's after positive talks at the

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Speaker 1: White House between the US, Ukraine and europe and leaders.

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Speaker 1: There's now talk of a europe led peacekeeping force and

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Speaker 1: America buying into Ukraine's drone program. Today, are we really

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Speaker 1: a step closer to peace?

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Speaker 2: We all remember this.

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Speaker 3: God, bless you and bless You're not here to work.

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Speaker 3: Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're gambling with lives.

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Speaker 3: Billions of people think you're gambling with World War.

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Speaker 2: Three, So this sounds like progress. Thank you very.

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Speaker 3: Much for being here. Thanks so much, you spredent. Thank

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Speaker 3: you very much for your efforts, personal efforts to stop

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Speaker 3: killings and stop this war. We'll work with Russia. We're

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Speaker 3: going to work with Ukraine. We're gonna make sure it works.

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Speaker 3: And I think if we can get to piece, it's

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Speaker 3: going to work. I have no doubt about it.

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Speaker 2: Right well, who can tell?

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Speaker 1: As European leaders say they're confident a deal between Russia

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Speaker 1: and Ukraine is close, and Vladimir Putin considers a trilateral

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Speaker 1: meeting with Donald Trump and Vladimi Zelenski, I've called in

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Speaker 1: the big gum, Greg Sheridan to pick our way through

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Speaker 1: whether this change of tone should make us hopeful.

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Speaker 2: It couldn't be more different, could it these two occasions.

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Speaker 4: No, that's right, And that very difference illustrates the difficulty

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Speaker 4: of interpreting Trump because his moods vary so wildly. And

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Speaker 4: I must say I've always admired the true Trump loyalist

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Speaker 4: because you have to be able to leap backwards and

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Speaker 4: forwards across so many red lines and tie yourself into

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Speaker 4: so many knots. To be a consistent Trump supporter is

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Speaker 4: a high achievement in gymnastics.

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Speaker 3: I think.

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Speaker 1: This time Volodimiseelenski, having had a bit of a dig

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Speaker 1: from one of the questions last time around about his clothing.

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Speaker 3: Why don't you wear a suit? Suit? You're the highest

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Speaker 3: level in this country. Is awful? Say, and you refuse

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Speaker 3: to wear a suit? Just want to see people you

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Speaker 3: own a suit?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of Americans have problems with you, not

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Speaker 3: respect of I will wear a question after this war

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Speaker 3: will finish.

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Speaker 2: He wore a suit this time, right, Yes, I got.

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Speaker 3: A question for each yours all this President? You love

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Speaker 3: fabulous in that suit? I said, yeah, look you look good.

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Speaker 3: I said the same thing. Yeah, I said the one

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Speaker 3: that attacked you last time that I remember that. I

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Speaker 3: apologize to you. Look you look wonderful. No, my first

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Speaker 3: question for you President in the same suit I changed you.

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Speaker 2: Was that a smart move?

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Speaker 4: Well it was, of course, but it's completely backing mad

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Speaker 4: that the question of a suit should have come up. Zelenski,

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Speaker 4: in solidarity with Ukrainian soldiers who were fighting and dying

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Speaker 4: in huge numbers, has throughout his presidency since the war

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Speaker 4: worn a kind of informal military garb, not giving himself

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Speaker 4: any insignia or wearing phony metals or anything, just to

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Speaker 4: be in solidarity with the soldiers. But when they were

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Speaker 4: picking a fight with Lotomer Zelenski, the Trump loyalists decided

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Speaker 4: to make a big deal of the fact that Zelenski

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Speaker 4: didn't wear a suit to the White House, and the

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Speaker 4: odious taker Carlson said, Zelenski is like a nightclub bouncer

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Speaker 4: or something. Why don't you get a nightclub for him

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Speaker 4: to run or something like this. So okay, so he

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Speaker 4: wore a suit today. Now, honestly, you're talking about the

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Speaker 4: lives and deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in

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Speaker 4: Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and the peace agreement may turn

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Speaker 4: on whether Zelensky sacks up to Trump's ego by wearing

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Speaker 4: an unaccustomed suit in the White House. It just shows

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Speaker 4: how bizarre reality has become.

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Speaker 1: But this is the way you have to play Donald Trump, right,

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Speaker 1: because things like clothing and symbols mean a lot to him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's a very strange person. Trump.

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Speaker 4: Now, the difficulty for an analyst is that Trump at

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Speaker 4: his best is very good and at his worst, he's

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Speaker 4: unspeakably terrible, and to hold the two different trumps in

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Speaker 4: your head at once is very difficult. There are good

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Speaker 4: results that he's achieved internationally. In his first term. He

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Speaker 4: achieved peace agreements between Israel and four Arab neighbors. That's astonishing.

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Speaker 4: No previous president had achieved that. On the other hand,

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Speaker 4: there are absolute debarcles that he's presided over. Famously, he

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Speaker 4: declared after a meeting with North Koreas Kim Jong un

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Speaker 4: that the nuclear threat from North Korea was over and

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Speaker 4: that Kim Jong un was committed to denuclearizing the whole

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Speaker 4: Korean pininula.

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Speaker 3: No such thing ever happened. Now.

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Speaker 4: The difficulty we've got interpreting what's going on now is

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Speaker 4: that all the messages that came out of the Trump

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Speaker 4: summit with Vladimir Putin are contradicted by all the messages

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Speaker 4: coming out of the Trump summit with Zelensky and with

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Speaker 4: the European leaders.

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Speaker 3: And I think only.

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Speaker 4: God knows what is going to happen, or which set

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Speaker 4: of messages is going to be true, or if something

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Speaker 4: new is going to come up.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about what seemed to be the developments

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Speaker 1: out of this Oval Office meeting. There's talk of a

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Speaker 1: European led reassurance force of troops that could go to

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and keep the peace if a peace deal is

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Speaker 1: reached with Russia. What do you think of that, Greg,

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Speaker 1: Is that something that realistically could happen?

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Speaker 3: Yes, it could, It could.

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Speaker 4: So there were very confusing reports about whether there was

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Speaker 4: any chance of American troops being involved. Trump seemed to

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Speaker 4: indicate that was a possibility, Then he seemed to indicate

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Speaker 4: that wasn't a possibility.

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Speaker 3: That he put out a tweet.

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Speaker 4: Or whatever we call tweets the stay saying that it

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Speaker 4: would be European forces coordinated by the United States. Now

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Speaker 4: god aline knows what coordinated means. Now, I suppose this

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Speaker 4: is a concession by Putin because he's always said he

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Speaker 4: wouldn't accept foreign forces in Ukraine. But European defenses are

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Speaker 4: so feeble that to deploy thirty thousand troops is a

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Speaker 4: huge ask for the Europeans. We rightly see Trump's chaos

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Speaker 4: as a bad thing, and it is a bad thing,

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Speaker 4: But the Europeans, in substance are more guilty than Trump.

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Speaker 4: Russia invaded Crimea in twenty fourteen. That's eleven years ago.

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Speaker 4: In those eleven years, the Europeans have not increased their

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Speaker 4: defense budgets, they have not created military production lines. Now

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Speaker 4: they've just started to increase their defense budgets now, but

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Speaker 4: they had eleven years clearly where Putin's intentions were telegraphed

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Speaker 4: to them. They are cumulatively vastly bigger economy than Russia.

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Speaker 4: They are there begging Trump to be involved because of

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Speaker 4: their own failure to provide for their own security, which

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Speaker 4: they could well afford to do given the size of

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Speaker 4: their economies.

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Speaker 1: One of the other things where now apparently talking about

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Speaker 1: is territory swaps. It seems that Vladimir Zelenski is open

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Speaker 1: to what he referred to as proportional swaps of territory.

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Speaker 1: There's a suggestion that Russia wants basically most of the

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Speaker 1: Donyetsk region, which includes some of Ukraine's most prized territory.

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Speaker 1: What do you think that means, Greg, Are we actually

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Speaker 1: going to see a land swap?

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Speaker 2: And is that maybe the road to peace?

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Speaker 4: Well, if the Ukrainians do, that represents a massive defeat

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Speaker 4: for them. It may be the best thing to do.

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Speaker 4: Sometimes you're better to take a defeat on the terms

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Speaker 4: that you can get and if you keep going you

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Speaker 4: get a much worse defeat. Now there are two big

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Speaker 4: parts of the don Bus which Russia doesn't currently control,

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Speaker 4: and Putin said that any interim agreement or peace agreement

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Speaker 4: or anything involves him getting at least the rest of

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Speaker 4: the Donbas. Once you see territory to Russia, it's gone forever.

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Speaker 4: And if Ukraine gets a security guarantee in exchange, what

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Speaker 4: exactly does that mean? Because in nineteen ninety four Ukraine

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Speaker 4: gave up the nuclear weapons that it had inherited from

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Speaker 4: the Soviet Union, and if it had held those nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 4: it certainly would not have been invaded by Russia. And

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Speaker 4: in exchange for giving those weapons up, it got a

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Speaker 4: historic security guarantee from Russia, the United States and the

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Speaker 4: United Kingdom that it would never be attacked, that its

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Speaker 4: borders were in violate, that its territorial security was guaranteed.

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Speaker 4: And then blink Anihilator, Russia invades and takes Crimea, and

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Speaker 4: the West collectively does nothing. Weakness is provocative, and they

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Speaker 4: tempted the Russians to do more. So, what you would

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Speaker 4: get if Ukraine gives a great slab of new territory

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Speaker 4: to Russia. You repeat nineteen ninety four, but you do

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Speaker 4: it with a much much weaker Ukraine, much harder to defend.

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Speaker 4: The areas that it would have to give up, are

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Speaker 4: areas which involve fortified cities, which Ukraine has been able

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Speaker 4: to hold against all Russian invasion attempts up till now.

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Speaker 4: There would be a security guarantee in which apparently there'll

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Speaker 4: be no American troops coordinated by America. But I bet

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump doesn't promise to send American troops to fight

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Speaker 4: if anything happens. Ukraine still won't be allowed into NATO,

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Speaker 4: so it doesn't get the permanent Article five protection of NATO,

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Speaker 4: and there'll be the successes to Macron in France and

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Speaker 4: Starmar in Britain allegedly Saint of Vladimir Putin. Well, look

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Speaker 4: look at the lesson we taught you last time. Last time,

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Speaker 4: you thought you'd invade Ukraine and you only got twenty

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Speaker 4: five percent of the country. Do it again and see

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Speaker 4: what happens. You get another twenty five percent. I don't

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Speaker 4: think that can be what was envisaged, because I don't

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Speaker 4: think the Europeans would have emerged from the White House

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Speaker 4: with so much of a smile on their faces. But honestly,

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Speaker 4: we just don't know. One of the difficulties with Trump

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Speaker 4: is that nothing holds longer than a news cycle.

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Speaker 1: One thing we do know about Trump is that he's

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Speaker 1: always got an eye on what's in it for America.

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Speaker 1: Last time he met with Zelenski, they were talking about

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Speaker 1: access to Ukraine's rare earths. Now he's asking Zelensky reportedly

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Speaker 1: for a fifty billion dollar steak in the Ukrainian drone industry,

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Speaker 1: and Zelenski is talking about purchasing one hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: worth of American weapons and equipment through the Europeans. So

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Speaker 1: is that a new development, greg, Is that something that's

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Speaker 1: emerged now, this conversation about drones and about equipment.

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Speaker 4: Yes, yes, that is new, and that's quite important. Again,

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Speaker 4: it's very hard to know what strength to give it.

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Speaker 4: Many of these announcements that Trump makes with foreign governments

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Speaker 4: about hundreds of billions of dollars never actually happen.

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Speaker 3: For him.

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Speaker 4: The announcement is everything, getting the announcement of the dealers everything.

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Speaker 4: It is quite shocking and profoundly morally offensive that Trump

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Speaker 4: is trying to shake down a democratic allied nation which

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Speaker 4: is subject to a brutal invasion by a neighboring dictator.

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Speaker 4: We would have been appalled if the Clintons had behaved

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Speaker 4: this way. We were appalled when Joe Biden behave this

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Speaker 4: way with his son Hunter Biden doing deals with countries

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Speaker 4: his dad was negotiating with his vice president. Ukraine has

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Speaker 4: always bought American weapons, So one way Trump gets round

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Speaker 4: his base not wanting American taxpayer money to go to

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Speaker 4: Ukraine now is to say, well, we'll sell you the

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Speaker 4: weapons and the Europeans will pay for it.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's not bad, that's okay.

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Speaker 4: The Europeans need to pay for Ukraine's defense because defending

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Speaker 4: against Russia is defending themselves, so that's good. But the

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Speaker 4: fifty billion dollars stake in Ukraine's draining, So what does

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Speaker 4: that mean? Ukraine will make owns mainly for its own

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Speaker 4: use and then pay America for the privilege of making

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Speaker 4: its own drones. Just seems to defy not only all

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Speaker 4: morality but all common sense. But you can take some

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Speaker 4: consolation from the fact that these deals never actually seem

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Speaker 4: to eventuate. You know, Australia has been talking about a

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Speaker 4: rare Earth deal with America, I think longer than World

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Speaker 4: War Two went on. For you can't dismiss Trump. He's

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Speaker 4: the most powerful man in the world. Things really happen,

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Speaker 4: But nor can you take everything that he says as

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Speaker 4: actually meaning something.

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Speaker 2: Coming up.

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Speaker 1: But does Vladimir version really want peace? And what will

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Speaker 1: he and the deal maker in chief, Donald Trump want

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Speaker 1: in return? Only a few days since we saw Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Putin of Russia and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska in

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Speaker 1: immense pomp and circumstance, nothing seemed to emerge from that.

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Speaker 2: Do you feel, though, Greg, that there is now momentum here?

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Speaker 1: As you say, the European leaders are in Washington, DC

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Speaker 1: looking like they feel like something is happening.

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Speaker 4: I would honestly say to you, anyone who tells you

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Speaker 4: they know what's going on, is you know, you just

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Speaker 4: want to check.

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Speaker 3: What they're having in their morning coffee.

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Speaker 4: But yes, it looks like the European leaders think there's

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Speaker 4: something afoot. So that's very good. But that is exactly

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Speaker 4: the opposite of what Trump and Putin were saying after

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Speaker 4: their meeting last time. The remark we heard Trump make

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Speaker 4: to Emmanuel Macron, you know, is caught on a hot

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Speaker 4: mic saying, you know what crazy is it sounds I

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Speaker 4: think he Putin wants to do a deal for me.

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Speaker 4: So Trump is the sort of the platonic ideal of narcissism, sollopsism,

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Speaker 4: which means literally the ability to know nothing other than yourself.

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Speaker 4: You only know yourself. Trump is beyond narcissistic. He's solopsistic.

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Speaker 4: And if he really thinks Vladimir Putin is going to

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Speaker 4: do a deal because of his affection for Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: well that's barking man. Putin has done pretty well in

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Speaker 4: charming a whole series of otherwise hardheaded American presidents. Putin

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Speaker 4: has some sort of hypnotic ability to get American presidents

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Speaker 4: to think that he's on the brink of making a deal.

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Speaker 4: But on the other hand, if we look at what

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Speaker 4: Putin's done, he's just continued the aggression. A very Russian

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Speaker 4: pattern this war. I mean, intelligence doesn't tell you much,

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Speaker 4: but history tells you everything. The Russian pattern of war

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Speaker 4: is they always start very badly. Their logistics are terrible,

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Speaker 4: their NCAAs are always corrupt, half their equipment has been

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Speaker 4: sold on the black market, and so on. It's always

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Speaker 4: chaotic at the start. But then their sheer willingness to

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Speaker 4: endure unspeakable casualty levels and just to go on and

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Speaker 4: on means that they tend to prevail over time the

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Speaker 4: history of wars. It's quite plausible that Putin is simply

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Speaker 4: saying to himself, Look, I can keep these monkeys dancing

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Speaker 4: for months and months, and I am making slow advances

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Speaker 4: on the battlefield. I've turned my economy into a wartime economy.

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Speaker 4: If I tried to demobilize it now, that would be

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Speaker 4: more disruptive to the economy than not. They're never going

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Speaker 4: to stop China in India buying my oil now. I

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Speaker 4: might even have a meeting with Zelenski and present that

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Speaker 4: as a great sign of graciousness and generosity on my part.

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Speaker 4: But I can easily find some way of presenting whatever

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Speaker 4: peace offer I make to Zelenski in a way that

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Speaker 4: I know Zelenski can't accept it. But then Trump so

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Speaker 4: much wants a deal, he'll put the weights on Zelenski,

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Speaker 4: and Putin might just string this out endlessly for months.

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Speaker 4: On the other hand, perhaps Trump is right, and perhaps

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Speaker 4: Putin has had a change of heart, and because of

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Speaker 4: his love of the admirable and spectacular and handsome and

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Speaker 4: best looking ever in history. President may say, well, look

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Speaker 4: I've changed. I've had a lifetime formed by the KGB

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Speaker 4: belief in the most obsessive, paranoid and expansive Russian nationalism.

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Speaker 4: But I'm rejecting all of that right now, and I'm

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Speaker 4: becoming an eleanor Roosevelt Democrat who knows absolutely anything is

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Speaker 4: possible in this scenario, even a good outcome. But although

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Speaker 4: the Europeans were smiling, and that's a good sign, I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't bet my house on a piece steel. Coming up

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Speaker 4: in the next few months.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read

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Speaker 1: his analysis and all our reporting from around the world

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Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dou