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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greet Business Interview. I'm Adam Lang.

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Speaker 1: It's a new financial year, but investors aren't exactly getting

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Speaker 1: a clean slate. Despite some strong recent performances like the

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Speaker 1: S and P five hundred hitting a record high and

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Speaker 1: the Australian market notching it's best twelve month run since COVID,

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Speaker 1: global uncertainty is certainly in the spotlight. In the words

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Speaker 1: of global fund manager Van k, the risks and narrative

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Speaker 1: for the next quarter is as clear as mud. That's

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Speaker 1: a great quote. Van X's latest Viewpoint report suggests we're

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Speaker 1: entering a period where traditional safe bets like US equities

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Speaker 1: and bonds no longer offer the same rewards, whereas opportunities

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Speaker 1: are emerging in places that have long been overlooked. Remember

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Speaker 1: that this is general information only, and you should seek

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Speaker 1: financial advice before and making any investment decisions for yourself.

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Speaker 1: Cameron McCormack is senior portfolio manager at van Nek and

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Speaker 1: I'm delighted to say he joins me this morning. Cameron,

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Speaker 1: welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: The very next statement saying that the market and the

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Speaker 1: outlook is as clear as mud why.

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Speaker 2: It's a bit of an oxymoron, and I think if

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Speaker 2: you reflect on where we are in terms of the

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Speaker 2: global economy, we've got obviously the trade discussions on going

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Speaker 2: with the deadline coming up, obviously there's heightened g or

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Speaker 2: political risks, and if you think about the market rally

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Speaker 2: we're seen across the board in Australia, in the US,

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of the indices are near or

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Speaker 2: at their all time highs. And if you look at valuations,

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Speaker 2: particularly in those segments, particularly the growth segments, they're looking

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Speaker 2: quite strapped, so they're from a you know, really balancing

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Speaker 2: up those injunctures leaves us in I guess, a tricky place.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, those independent stay tariffs and high valuations. As

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Speaker 1: you say, amongst that, what do you think is the

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Speaker 1: biggest risk that investors might be underestimating right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a lot of market exuberance at

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Speaker 2: the moment particularly and that's reflected through obviously the rally

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Speaker 2: we're seen of late and valuate. I guess the key

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Speaker 2: risk to really consider it is certainly the ongoing tariff discussions,

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Speaker 2: and we know that obviously the goal of economy has

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Speaker 2: really got a baseline ten percent. Now there are obviously

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Speaker 2: trade deals of ben and ounces with the UK. It

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Speaker 2: looks like Europe's in a good place clearly, I guess

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Speaker 2: from what we're hearing so far, which is positive. But

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Speaker 2: having said that, those will have an impact, particularly on

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Speaker 2: the US in terms of obviously inflation, and we're starting

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Speaker 2: to see that when you look at some of the

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Speaker 2: underlying I manufacturing data, imports in particular crisis paid that

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Speaker 2: has picked up. So if you take that unfaced value,

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Speaker 2: I think that the back end of the year could

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Speaker 2: be a bit more turbulent than what the market seems

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Speaker 2: to suggest.

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Speaker 1: The US is still the most powerful economy in the world.

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Speaker 1: A US equity is still worth the weight that they

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Speaker 1: carry in global portfolios.

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Speaker 2: There's certainly an important part of a global diversified portfolio.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're roughly seventy percent of the misky world.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at obviously the last fifteen years

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Speaker 2: have been a cellar performer relative to Europe, even Australia,

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Speaker 2: and you know that really does come down to the

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Speaker 2: Magnificent seven. They're clearly, you know, pioneers in driving technology,

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Speaker 2: particularly across AI and cloud computing. Having said that, you know,

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Speaker 2: certainly China's catching up as well. But the key headline

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Speaker 2: risk when we think that the US economy is certainly

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Speaker 2: their their fiscal outlook. We know that the Beautiful Bill

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Speaker 2: has just been passed, which is quite promising, but having

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Speaker 2: said that, it's going to further extend their fiscal debt

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Speaker 2: relative to GDP, it's sitting at about one hundred percent and

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Speaker 2: it's projected to I guess increase further. Now we've started

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Speaker 2: to see if you look at the long end of

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Speaker 2: the curve, say quite fixated at the four percent range.

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Speaker 2: It did tick up about ten basis points last week,

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Speaker 2: so from that backdrop, you know, the market is trying

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Speaker 2: to weigh up. You know, while the US is in

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Speaker 2: quite a strong position at the moment, that fiscal backdrop

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Speaker 2: and certainly the medium term implications of that as well

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Speaker 2: in terms of servicing that debt.

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Speaker 1: Cameron, do you think, amongst all those factors, is it

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Speaker 1: too early to say that US exceptionalism is heading towards

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Speaker 1: an end?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it is. It's an important, I guess

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Speaker 2: reflection point. You know, certainly we look at US equities

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Speaker 2: have been such a strong performer, you know of late

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Speaker 2: if you look at year to date performance on a

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Speaker 2: local currency basis, Europe, Australia and the US are almost

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Speaker 2: neck and neck. And if you think about, I guess

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Speaker 2: where we are in terms of you know, conjunctions, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot to weigh up when you think about I

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Speaker 2: guess positioning portfolios, particularly when we think about the forthcoming

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Speaker 2: twenty six fine entry year.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Vanik is favoring emerging markets in fiscal twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Why A you're looking at that way? And what makes

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Speaker 1: some emerging economies more resilient than others right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you think about particularly when you look

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Speaker 2: at the US dollar year today, it has a weekend

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Speaker 2: quite a bit. We haven't seen those type of moves

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Speaker 2: for quite quite a period now. As the classes that

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Speaker 2: typically do uperform when USD weakness is emerging markets their

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Speaker 2: net credit exporters of the US dollar, and they're also

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Speaker 2: commodity exporters. So from a fiscal standpoint, if you look

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Speaker 2: at the US, which is running a government debt relative

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Speaker 2: to GDPAT of around one hundred percent, emerging markets are

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Speaker 2: quite considerably lower. So from a fiscal standpoint, they do

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Speaker 2: look better on a relative basis, and certainly when you

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Speaker 2: look at valuations for investors looking for I guess better

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Speaker 2: relative value. You know, emerging markets are trading at a

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Speaker 2: circular you know, thirty five percent to four percent discount

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Speaker 2: across a range of metrics compared to competitive developed markets.

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Speaker 2: So if we do start to see a potential rotation

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Speaker 2: into value again like we saw at the start of

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Speaker 2: the year, and you know, e merging markets have fared

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Speaker 2: quite well given the uncertainties around tariff's and.

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Speaker 1: Like, stay with me, Cameron, we'll be back in a moment.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Cameron McCormack from Van Neck. Cameron, the

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Speaker 1: Gold Rally. Do you think, I mean, it's come a

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Speaker 1: long way already in the last five years. Do you

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Speaker 1: think it's just getting started or do you think it'll

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Speaker 1: taper off?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting point to reflect on. If you

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Speaker 2: look at the where the goal price is at the moment, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's three and three three hundred dollars. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: rarely quite substantially even year to date as well. Having

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Speaker 2: said that, there's a lot of structural tailwinds when you

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Speaker 2: think about the goal price. There's been quite a considerable

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Speaker 2: amount of central bank buying by particularly from emerging markets

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Speaker 2: again looking to diversify away. They've alliance on the US dollar,

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Speaker 2: and certainly with I guess Trump's presidency, he's looking to

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Speaker 2: well as a response in terms of the emerging markets,

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Speaker 2: they really trying to diversify it again their alliance on

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Speaker 2: the US dollar, and naturally gold is a way to

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Speaker 2: fill that vot. There's also the fiscal backdrop that we've

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Speaker 2: talked about in terms of the US economy. If that

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Speaker 2: does become more of a I guess a near term challenge,

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Speaker 2: that could certainly be a further tailwind for the goal price.

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Speaker 2: And certainly with ongoing tariff discussions as well and policy

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Speaker 2: uncertain around that, that's certainly a period where where the

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Speaker 2: goal price typically does outperform if we do start to

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Speaker 2: see inflation expectations pick up. We would have seen even

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Speaker 2: last week as well, the markets really dialed down its

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Speaker 2: expectations through another rate cut in the US that's really

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Speaker 2: effectively ruled out a rate cut in July. It very

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Speaker 2: different story obviously in Australia. But all these components are

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Speaker 2: quite positive for the goal price, even despite the rally

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Speaker 2: scene of late wow.

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Speaker 1: So amongst the asset classes, do you see one that

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Speaker 1: you think is being totally overlooked.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's I guess probably another step down in terms

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Speaker 2: of the goal complex. There's certainly goal miners. Now they've

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Speaker 2: been another A guess Stella performer. They've actually out or

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Speaker 2: more than I guess doubled in terms of year to

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Speaker 2: date performance relative to goals. But if you look at

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Speaker 2: their valuations, they look quite attractive in terms of where

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Speaker 2: the current goal price is relative to the fair value

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Speaker 2: sitting circle around twenty percent discount. Now the other component

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Speaker 2: has a goal mineers as well, is that if you

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Speaker 2: look at they're really evolution over the last ten to

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Speaker 2: fifteen years, their balance sheets have improved quite substantially, so

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Speaker 2: they're really de leveraged, which is.

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Speaker 1: Quite positive over that period of time correct.

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Speaker 2: And their profit margins. So what I mean by this

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Speaker 2: is despite the goal price, you know, I guess, increasing

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Speaker 2: quite substantially, they're all in sustaining costs have leveled off

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Speaker 2: and that's created I guess, quite an increase in the

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Speaker 2: profit margins. And we haven't necessarily seen that reflected in

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Speaker 2: the performance of goal mine as a relative to the

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Speaker 2: goal price over seven the last few years. So there

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Speaker 2: could be further upside you if I guess more of

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Speaker 2: a value rotation does come back into play.

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Speaker 1: So let's look at the Australian market in general. It's

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Speaker 1: had some good runs and compared to other markets it's

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Speaker 1: maybe seen to over outperform them. How long do you

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Speaker 1: think that good run can continue?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been an interesting sort of I guess complex

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Speaker 2: when you think about this Strai market. Obviously, the standout's

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Speaker 2: been CBA. It's been quite a remarkable run over the

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Speaker 2: last even twarld months and if you look at as

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Speaker 2: A as a weighting relative to the A six two hundred,

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Speaker 2: it's gone from around nine percent to around twelve percent. Now,

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Speaker 2: I think it's broadly considered to be true that I

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Speaker 2: guess CBA relative to the other banks is considered a

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Speaker 2: more of a I guess quality name. But having said that,

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Speaker 2: if you look at where valuations are of CVA in particular,

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Speaker 2: you know it's twenty nine times and that's almost double

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Speaker 2: its historical average. That's the same multiple as a Magnificence

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Speaker 2: Magnificent seven. Despite you know, the divergence obviously in earnings growth,

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Speaker 2: Magnificence seven have been coming out quite considerable strong, you know,

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Speaker 2: free cash flow margins tax CBA or while it has

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Speaker 2: I guess grown not certainly not to the same degree

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Speaker 2: as some of the you know, technology games in the US.

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Speaker 2: So taking that complex, it's quite an interesting gues juncture

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Speaker 2: were out the moment, and I think when you think

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Speaker 2: about the Australian market, obviously it's very concentrated across financials

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Speaker 2: and resource companies now because particularly on Orlin, on miners,

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Speaker 2: bitchp and Rio Tinto, they've been quite structurally out of

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Speaker 2: favor for the last few years. And what you typically

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Speaker 2: see is that when Australians bangs outperform, typically Australia's resources underperform.

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Speaker 2: So if it do you start to potentially see a

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Speaker 2: rotation back to resources that could be a potential headwind

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Speaker 2: for CBA particular. So certainly considering how concentrated you are

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Speaker 2: when you're investing in the AUS trail markets quite quite important.

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Speaker 1: Got it. So on the other side, what sectors are

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Speaker 1: looking risky and investors might really question in the near term.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a lot of I guess headline

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Speaker 2: you risk consider obviously the medium term muplications of tariffs

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Speaker 2: being implemented and how that has a flow and effect

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Speaker 2: for the US economy, but also the Australian economy as well. Now,

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Speaker 2: generally speaking, the Australian COMTMI is considered to be more

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Speaker 2: insulated from the tick to tack in terms of how

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Speaker 2: that's unfolding. But having said that, it does have flow

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Speaker 2: and effects for the Eastrand market. Now, if you look

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Speaker 2: at hockets evaluations particularly, we know I've talked about CBA

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Speaker 2: in particular, it's looking quite stretched, particularly on a historical basis,

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Speaker 2: as that's certainly an area to watch quite closely. We

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Speaker 2: have started to see a bit of a rotation to

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Speaker 2: resources recently. Hasn't obviously been quite structural, but it's something

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Speaker 2: to watch quite closely. Another area is certainly consumer discussery

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Speaker 2: names in Australia, retail sales have started to weaken a

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Speaker 2: little bit, but it's important Having said that to be

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Speaker 2: I guess diverse fight as well across sectors as.

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Speaker 1: Well makes sense. Cameron, thank you very much for talking

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: That was Kemeron McCormack, senior portfolio manager at van Eck.

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Speaker 1: This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember this

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Speaker 1: is general information only and you really should seek professional

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Speaker 1: advice before you make investments. Join us every morning for

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Speaker 1: the full episode of The and Greed. It's business news

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Speaker 1: you can use. I'm Adam lame. Enjoy your day here