WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 16 February 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.880 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thanks 0:00:06.920 --> 0:00:09.239 for the handover, Joe. Always delightful to have you and 0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:10.920 the rest of the team with us here on a 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:13.640 Sunday night. All right, Sunday night, hardcore night. This is 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:16.120 the one where we tell you the truth, get right 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.520 into the details, and we don't muck around. Okay, we 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:19.080 don't play. 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:19.360 You know. 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:22.360 Up here we're counting every grain of sand on the 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.159 beach and the lead up to the election. We'll do 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:25.880 that with state of the race in a second. The 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.240 plan to make beer cheaper by getting rid of the 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:30.920 tax of the pub. I've been banging on about it 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:33.919 for a while and I'm an on drinker. That's how 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:37.040 how obvious it is. And the ABC actually calls out 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:40.240 the Labor Party for its latest load off. But first, 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.640 a story that we all know is how we started 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:47.760 our year, which was some pretty terrible weather in North Queensland, floods, 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:49.920 all sorts of issues that are happening there. Well, there's 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.280 a follow up, and very rarely does the Australian media 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.800 ever follow up, They ever go back to the same 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:57.720 story that they go wall to war with. Well, I 0:00:57.760 --> 0:00:59.959 want to go back to it. Now because there's no 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:04.560 food in some parts of Queensland because they are cut 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.720 off from roads. Now, this is some of the stuff 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.000 that's been popping up on social media. Now, this is, 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.200 by the way, not some far flung thing at the 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:17.040 back of the proverbial burk, even though it's in New 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:20.399 South Wales. This is in Cans Okay, this is what 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.280 is happening right now. And we're talking about when people 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:25.960 wear nuts about toot paper during the wuflu. We are 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:30.360 talking about people's access to the basics. Now, what really 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.000 gets me about this is that, oh, we can fly 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.959 politicians into the area. They can go and point at 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.720 things and show maximum empathy. Well, here's an idea. Rather 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:43.720 than an air drop of bs and insincere garbage from politicians, 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:48.240 can we use whatever technologies we get them there to 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:51.760 get food to people who need it. Now, this has 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.960 been going on for a couple of weeks. Now, now 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:58.200 I get it impossible to get there by road. I 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.760 heard a supermarket ceo so that they were doing a 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:02.880 bit when it comes to air drops, but clearly not enough. 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:08.000 Clearly not okay, how can we not have people in 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.560 the areas that have got excess to be able to 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.200 put it on a boat and land it into a 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:15.600 place like cans get on this. If the politicians can 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.960 get there to point it a problem, the politicians can 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.720 do something to fix the problem. I've got a bit 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:23.800 more to say about this this week, including the insurance 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.359 companies in the disgraceful way that they treat people who 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:30.520 think that they are covered in natural disasters. It won't 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:31.919 make the lead of the six pre mews, it won't 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:34.400 go anywhere near the front page. But I care, you care, 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:36.520 which is why it will stay towards the top of 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:40.000 this program. But first, let us get to the obvious here, 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.840 which is the latest opinion polls that you've heard about 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.639 all day. In fact, the media are quite excited because 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:49.680 there's a chance of a change of government tonight. 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:53.040 The Yugov pole of forty thousand voters has the Coalition 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.400 ahead fifty one point one percent to forty eight point nine. 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.960 The modeling suggests a strong electoral advantage for the opposition. 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.320 New red Bridge pole of twenty key marginal seats shows 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:06.160 the Coalition ahead fifty two to forty eight to three 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:09.560 percent swing. All right, you may have heard that already ready. 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:12.320 Than the papers today let's get into the detail then 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.560 what it all means with a cause and with Kroger 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.359 in a couple of minutes time, so two party preferred 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:22.160 fifty two forty eight. Now this is an interesting rolling pole. See, 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.840 both major political parties have a thing called a tracking pole. 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:27.880 This is where they have a look at twenty key seats, 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.040 maybe a little more, maybe a little less, and they 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:32.440 get data back each and every day about how they're doing. 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.240 I remember the inside word and the tracking pole of 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.840 the twenty nineteen federal election was that the only time 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:40.240 they had a four in front of it was the 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:44.200 final days of the campaign. Okay, so for them to 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.200 have a strong vote at this point in time is 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:51.440 really important. Now, marginal seatpoling and seatpolling can be very difficult. 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.560 But they say, the people that are behind all of this, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:57.840 that there is much in these stats. We'll talk about 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.320 it with Coz whose company Redbridge is in part of 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.160 all of this in a moment or two times at 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.480 fifty two to forty eight in terms of the primary 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:07.400 vote in these twenty seats that matter, so it might 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.640 be slightly higher than the national numbers or slightly lower 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:13.240 than national numbers, depending on whom you wish to vote for. 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:15.640 But if all of these twenty seats follow this, then 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:17.440 were the four in front of it, the Liberal Party 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:19.479 would be in a position to get very close to, 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.880 if not win, an election forty three to thirty three, 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:26.599 huge huge margin. As for the Greens at twelve and 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:30.120 others stubbornly sitting around at twelve. Now that other factor 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:32.760 are things like teals and all the rest of it, 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.840 but obviously they are not counted in the overall twenty 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:38.840 seats that are mattering. Is so, yes, there is an 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.360 independent vote that's floating, but it's not as keen as 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:44.960 some may see. The good news out of all of 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:46.960 these polls and apparently they're going to be updated I 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.479 think weekly, which means like a version this every week 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:52.599 between now and the election. The best news for Peter 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.039 Dutton in all of this is that the Liberal Party 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:57.680 is leading on two party preferred in a big way 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.360 in Victoria. In fact, they are small in Victoria and 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.400 way ahead in New South Wales. That's where most of 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.080 these twenty seats are and that's why the predictions are 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:10.080 the way that they seem right now. In fact, in 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:12.480 Victoria it's fifty eight to forty two in favor of 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.400 the Libs. Right now, New South Wales fifty three to 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.720 forty seven. If you are looking for the silver lining 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:21.600 and the prime Minister's support, the Prime Minister is leading 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:24.960 with the so called soft or leaning voters, so people 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:26.839 have already got a hardcore idea of which way they're 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:28.880 going to vote. That is a very strong lead for 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:33.239 the Liberal Party right now. But remember compulsory voting means 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.680 that soft or leaning voters are ultimately where all of 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.800 this is decided. So that's how we start to get 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.239 to the game of fifty to fifty. Meantime, the Labor 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:44.240 Party is in front in the two party preferred of 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:48.000 fifty seven forty three in the quote unquote other or 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:52.160 smaller states. There are marginal seats in South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.640 two up for grabs in the Northern Territory. So if 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.839 Labor is really in front in those places, then basically 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:01.560 the election and the big movement predicted in these polls, well, 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.040 it ends up coming down to essentially New South Wales 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.839 and Victoria. Now, as for the other pole that was 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:10.520 around today, and there is a lot more granular detail 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:12.440 in this that I know you can handle. That, I 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:15.240 know you can follow. Remember the book he's saying, the 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.039 change of governments still the favorite position right here. So 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.400 if you want to follow the bookies, nothing's changed in 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.359 the past week. In fact, things have got slightly better 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:26.240 for Peter Dutton. Even the ABC had to through very 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:29.440 twisted fingers right today that Peter Dutton was the most 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.080 likely to become the next Prime minister according to this 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.120 hyugav poll. Now, may I be the first to show 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:38.159 you the fancy graphics of the Sky News and the 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.240 twenty twenty five election. Now, as you know, one hundred 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.599 and fifty seats in the Parliament. Currently the government has 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:45.920 more than seventy six, which means they have a majority. 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:49.640 But but, but but if this pole was true, the 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.440 Liberal Party and National Party get together to get seventy 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:54.599 three seats, meaning they only need to go shopping for 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.000 three more seats to form a government. In truth, they 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:02.359 probably need four more seats or cross benches to help them, 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:04.760 because you have to find a speaker. The Labor Party 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:09.120 would be ten short, and theoretically if the Greens got 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:13.440 together with the Independence to help the existing government, they 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:15.880 would be returned but it would basically be every vote 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.760 is right down to the wire. Now where are the 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:20.880 seats and what are the margins? How did they get 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.480 to this number? Now there is a number that suggests 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:25.760 that the high water mark if the Liberal Party vote 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.400 is currently being undercounted, it could get as high as 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:30.520 eighty seats. If that's the case, then of course they 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:34.640 become a majority. If it's lower than obviously it's going 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:37.760 to be more like sixty three seats. But interestingly, with 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.160 those polls, because I've tried to double check this to 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.880 show you the comparison between if they're overcounting the Liberal 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:46.280 vote or undercanting the Liberal vote, those add up to 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:48.920 more or less than one hundred and fifty seats in 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:50.520 the parliament. The only one that actually gets you to 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:52.120 one hundred and fifty is that number that I have 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.880 just shown you. So all of these would be changes 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:58.800 from the Labor Party to the Liberal Party, nothing else. 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:01.760 These would be the change. You can see the margins 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.440 there pretty healthy as we start to get our way 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:08.400 towards lions. So there's eight that would be there in 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:12.080 Aston in Victoria, Gilmore, New South Wales, Bullwinkle, that's a 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.320 new seat in Western Australia. McEwen in Victoria, Robertson on 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:18.600 the central coast in New South Wales, been Along in 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:20.800 the northwest of Sydney. Now that's a place which the 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:23.080 Labor Party won by I think about one thousand votes, 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:26.800 so that moving pretty hard. Is interesting to see the 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:30.400 seat of Chisholm, significant Chinese population there. Whether their vote 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.120 will move well, that'll determine whether that seat moves or not. 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:36.080 They are throwing a star candidate the Labor Party at 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.080 the Lions election, but that would suggest that if the 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:41.920 Liberal Party can take that, then they would have both 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:45.080 Bass and Lions, so that have the top left and 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:50.040 the middle. On the eastern side of Tasmania. We keep 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:54.880 going here to Tanging in Western Australia, Hunter where are 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:59.600 were Shortland Patterson mcquarie and amazingly eden Manaro. Now eden 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.160 Manara used to be used to be the swing seat. 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:06.120 Remember whichever way it voted the election went as well well. 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.760 As you know. Christy McBain, who is I think the 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.680 local government minister federally. I think she's a star and 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:13.680 she could end up being a leader one day. She's 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.040 doing some goofy stuff on social media that I'll show 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:19.360 you in a second. But if her seat disappears, well, 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:21.000 then that's going to be a sign of even greater 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:25.320 problems potentially for the Labor Party. I'm nervous about saying 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.320 that I'd put any greater stock than just good to 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.360 know in this poll, because a little bit white whale 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:32.199 has been that the Liberal Party's going to win Hunter 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.480 or the Nats are going to win Hunter. It's a 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.960 little bit of a white whale where are and even 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:40.440 places like Mcquarie. Now Mcquarie is up towards the Blue 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:42.960 Mountains of New South Wales. Now that is a place 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:46.720 that has been trending way far to the left. In fact, 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.040 it was a marginal seat in twenty nineteen. The Lips 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:51.720 thought they might be able to have a crack at it. 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:55.440 It ended up going tighter to Labor in that nineteen election, 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:59.080 tighter to Labor in twenty two. So for them to 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:01.280 be talking about seventy three seats that we're right on 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.680 the tippy toes of what might be possible. Two other 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.000 things to know about the pole. This is the Yugov pole, 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:10.559 which was the one that the headlines were mostly focused 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:15.400 on today. No Teals would lose their seats. That's what 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.080 makes me think it's difficult for the coalition to get 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:21.520 there unless there is some revolution happening in the suburbs. Now, 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.839 you know that's where we live. You know, that's what 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:26.800 we know. So I don't have any real insight onto 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:28.439 the teal world. I've only live there and live in 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:31.240 suburban women. I know suburban people are quite peed off. 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.160 But the three seats the Greens would lose, which would 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.560 be in and around central Brisbane, they go back to Labor. 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.000 So I've got to say I'm not entirely sure how 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.800 the Labor Party gains three seats but losers seats like Eden, 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:48.800 Manaro and Macquarie let alone, Patterson, Shortland and Hunters. So 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.320 I think this might be slightly overcooking it at seventy 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:55.360 three seats, but apparently it is mirroring the internal polling 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:58.640 of the Liberal Party. Peter Dutton, who will be on 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.360 sixty minutes, will we'll show you some highlights of that 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:05.079 tomorrow night. Well, he's been very direct in the interviews 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.439 that he's done both with According and Male over the 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:11.760 weekend and this morning with our mate Andrew Clonel that 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.360 he thinks not we might but we will win. 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.000 There's no doubt in my mind that we can win 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:21.400 the election. I've been in marginal campaigns for the last 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:23.880 quarter of a century. Not only do I think we 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.720 can win, but more importantly, I think we can serve 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:27.800 the country well. 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:32.400 He's also speaking to that Teal effect that most likely 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.080 if the Teals are returned to Parliament, he doesn't expect 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:39.280 them to back in the party that used to hold 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:41.920 their seats, because of course these people are basically green. 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.240 Teal is a shade of green more notably than a 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.600 color of blue. So he thinks that basically he's got 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.280 to be in the very close to, if not over 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:56.360 the line of seventy six to actually be the next PM. 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:58.920 We'll talk with the cross Bench, but I can promise 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:03.320 you that it's clear from their voting pattern Kate Shaney, 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:08.600 Zoe Daniel Menique Ryant eighty percent of the time they 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.920 support the Greens in so then it's never coming in 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.679 all they will never come our way. All right, cost 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:19.280 of living the a grade issue of the election. You 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:21.160 know that this has been the show that has relentlessly 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:23.000 talked about it, not when it was just in the news, 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:27.440 but every day because it's been such a punish for people, 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.520 from three million people being this close to homelessness, to 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:32.160 three and a bit million people who don't know where 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.160 their food's going to come from, to the millions of 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.840 people who've ridden the interest rates and the python which 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.880 has taken tens of thousands of dollars out of the 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.319 money they already had, all as a result of this government. 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.360 So good luck what happens when it comes to rates 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:46.920 coming down by one hundred and fifty bucks maybe later 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:49.920 this week, and new pole tells us what we've already known. 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.720 It is the number one issue, It is the number 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.040 two issue, It is the number three issue for people, 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.559 which means overall it is the issue of the campaign. 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.240 According to the latest True Issues survey, eighty percent of 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.840 voters still say cost of living is their biggest concern, 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:11.160 far ahead of healthcare and housing, placing energy last. 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:17.440 Obviously, for most people, they view that through groceries. Now, 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.960 remember the reality of inflation is that you add this 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.320 month to last month, the last month, the last month 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.079 to last month, to go back and have a look 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:28.000 at basically twenty percent increases in things. Now, yes, the 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.800 amount that this month is more than last month might 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:35.000 be smaller than the amount from six months ago to 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:39.199 seven months ago. But the point is that people only 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:41.320 ride that roller coaster. It has only gone up and 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:45.240 it only continues to go up. So interestingly, Coles gave 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:49.000 some information to the Australian newspaper over the weekend about 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.040 what people are doing. Sixty seven percent of people are 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:56.640 cutting back on eating out, fifty eight percent of people 0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:59.640 are trying to buy things that are discounted inside of 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.600 the store or or forty six percent of people are 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.800 trying to go and find those cheaper brands. So good 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.480 luck when the Prime Minister wants to tell us that 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.160 we've turned the corner. Everything is awesome if you aren't 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.760 buying what you were able to buy before this bloke 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.440 became the prime minister. If you are paying tens of 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:17.680 thousands of dollars more for your mortgage than before this 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.800 bloke became prime minister, remember what their promise was. Their 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:22.640 promise was that a labor government would lie the cost 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:25.760 of living where for who? Even the people that they 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.200 tout as being supposedly better off, they are not better 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:31.560 off competed to where they were a couple of years ago, 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.360 which means it's time to do the Jedi mind trick. 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.800 Let's change the subject if they possibly can. In the 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:42.120 very same story where it showed the extreme majority of 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:46.520 Australian's number one concern was cost of living, this is 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.160 labor trying to revive the garbage from the two thousand 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:52.960 and sixteen election around medicare. 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.400 If you never want to upset Peter Dunton, wave this 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:56.960 in his face. 0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:01.360 It's like garlic at a vampire because he hates Medicare. 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:04.640 And Christy McBain. Despite the fact that I think that 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.040 she's got the suburban touch. I think she can be 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.560 quite a star. She is playing along with every other 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.720 labor MP. This is what they do, by the way, 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:13.760 when they're at work, when you send them to Canberra. 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.440 This is them sort of doing bad street theater and 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:17.760 releasing it on the internet. 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:20.840 Go ahead, Dan, you can trust me. 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.680 That's what will happen to Medicare if Peter Dutton and 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:29.680 the Liberals like they bus, they not like us, all right, 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.960 So let's call bullshit. Let me show you why this 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.479 is garbage. Believe it or not, it was the ABC, 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.600 the ABC who have called this out as a lie. 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.400 What you're about to see is what the labor parties say, 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.320 is the words from Peter Dutton way back when that 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.640 mean he hates Medicare. Then the ABC will point out 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.920 how they had been selectively edited, literally ripping a sentence 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.600 in half. This is the base of the labor lie 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:01.000 on Medicare. We're very clear about this. 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:04.640 Medicare is dead. They can't be for free. We have 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:06.960 to pay for a world class medical system. 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.120 The thing is his words have been taken completely out 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:14.400 of context. It's a labor attack ad that's selectively edited 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:18.520 a twenty fourteen press conference to twist Peter Dutton's words. 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:22.440 The edited video has been viewed by almost two hundred 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.520 thousand people, but we've found an original version. 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:26.760 We're very clear about this. 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.120 Medicare is dead if we can't make. 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:36.160 It sustainable today. Seriously, the ABC is calling labor out 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.800 for line where they literally just chop. I mean, I'd 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.800 love to play that game. In fact, we might start 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.200 to do it with albow graps because if that's the standard, 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:48.760 but well done to at least taxpayer media. Just like 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.440 a broken clock, couple of times a day, or a 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.400 couple of times a week, or a month or a year. 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.160 My favorite conversation of the week that we have about 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:56.680 politics is the one we're going to have right now. 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.000 Kas Samaris is of course the man in charge of Redbridge. 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.840 They are a polling company Data. They are the ones 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:05.120 who've got this rolling twenty seats stuff. We'll talk about 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:06.560 the mechanics of that in a second. And a man 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.280 who's fought many a campaign and talked about many more 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:11.840 on television and I love watching him each and every time. 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:13.760 He's done it way back when at Channel nine, but 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.679 more importantly here at Sky News, the great Michael Kroger. Lads, Hello, welcome, 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.439 get a So let's get into these pictures of the 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.560 polls because I'll start with you and the one that 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.120 you're apparently going to be rolling. Is it correct? It's 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:29.000 twenty marginal seats and you'll check it every week. 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.800 That's right up until the federal elections called. Will will 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:35.560 probably check it every two weeks. That's not going to 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:37.359 be long obviously, because I think he's going to call 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:38.400 it over the next few. 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.320 Weeks, is my gut instinct. 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.840 So once he calls it, we're in the field every 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:48.760 week and publishing through the news limited papers every week 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:53.440 to enable Australians to have a very accurate track on 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:57.680 what the campaign is doing to critical marginal seats. It's 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.200 exactly the same track that the major parties run during 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.280 the election campaign. When I was a former party official, 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.399 this is exactly the track that we ran to basically 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:10.080 diagnose what the campaign was doing from a labor perspective. 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:13.400 So that's fascinating to see for once we're actually going 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:15.600 to share the same data at the shame level of 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.120 the same way. It's going to be great and well 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.199 done for doing it. Well done for Irvis ponting out 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:23.880 the cash because it's more info helps us here. Also, Michael, 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:26.760 let's talk about where some of these findings are. Okay, 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:31.919 if they're undercounting, then we're up towards eighty. If they're undercounting, 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:36.439 we're more like the high sixties. But apparently the number 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:40.280 at seventy three, it includes some pretty big gets and 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.240 they're all gets off the Labor Party. 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:46.640 Well, i's mate, As you know, I've said for months, 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:48.760 I think that's on seventy two and now there's on 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:51.920 sixty six. This poll says seventy three to sixty six, 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.600 so it's taken them a while to catch up with 0:18:55.640 --> 0:19:00.280 the Paul Murray show. But I think it's a out 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:03.520 right I think it's about right. I mean there's zero 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.439 chances of Albanizi winning his own right, let's start with that. 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.400 And I've said for months I think Dutton's favored to win. 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:15.240 He could get up to a majority in his own right. 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:19.720 That's that's quite possible. Labor appeared to be in trouble 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.919 in seats around the Hunter now and they're in trouble 0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:25.719 in seats in Victoria around the five to six percent 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:31.320 mark like Bruce where they're in trouble. So you know, 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:33.440 Labor have had a to you know, eleven year old 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:36.560 state government here which is immensely unpopular and New South 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.240 Wales prime ministers are never popular in Victoria, let me 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:42.320 just say that straight away. So a combination of those 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:44.800 things and the appalling performance of alban Easy and the 0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:47.520 anti semitism et cetera, cetera, meant that there's a big 0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:51.600 swing on in Victoria. So the question is, you know, 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.200 can Dutton get to seventy six in his own right? 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:55.800 And he's got a good chance. 0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:59.720 Because let's talk about the upper regions of things here, right, 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.639 I've heard many people from inside the Liberal Party or 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:05.119 the National Party. So a mate Hunter, there's a lot 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.520 of people pissed off up there. Insert the thing this, 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:10.840 Insert that I've heard the same about Shortland. I've even 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.240 heard the same of course about eden Manero, but they've 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.879 got a pretty high profile minister there. But presumably eden 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:20.080