1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,040 Speaker 1: I thought, with Black Friday, what is it Friday week? 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: Although it feels like almost Black Friday month. There was 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: a Harvey Norman ad on just a short while ago, 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: an ad break or two ago, where you know, Black 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: Friday savings are here and now don't worry about the day. 6 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: It's happening. Retailers aren't waiting, that's for sure. Barry Yerkat, 7 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: consumer behavioral analyst Marketing Focus is the name of his group, 8 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: and he is on the line to talk about this. Hello, Barry, 9 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: good evening, Matthews. It is happening. I mean, this is 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: a sugar hit. I don't know for who. I don't 11 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: think our wallets so much as the retailers. 12 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: Well, I think the consumers are a little bit apprehensive 13 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: because they say, muhalla, we're being overwhelmed with offers. And 14 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 2: started on the thirty first of October with Halloween, and 15 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: then before that there was a Black Priding advertisements appearing 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 2: in the mass media. Then we had Melbourne Cup, then 17 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: we had Guy Fawkes Day. The day after. We're gone 18 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: into the eleventh of November, not on Armistice Day, but 19 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: really on Singles Day. There's going to be Black Friday 20 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: going to be click frenzy, singles Day and all of 21 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 2: those sort of situations, and it seems to be the 22 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 2: nervousness of retailers is we've had to place orders for 23 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 2: our Christmas stock in March, April, May. They've arrived in stock, 24 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: they're in the fulfillment centers or the warehouses. We've got 25 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,279 Speaker 2: to get it out, and the nervousnesses if it's still 26 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 2: they're stuck in the stores or in the warehouses in 27 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: December prime come January, we've got a problem. So I 28 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: think that to a large extent, we're seeing this whole 29 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 2: series of sugar hits. Hold on, let's make it enticely 30 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 2: exciting and the centered around bargains and Black Friday and 31 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 2: that type of situation, and it prostitutes the whole concept 32 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: of Black Friday. Black Friday is, as you indicated in 33 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: your introductory comments, Friday, the twenty eighth of November. Now 34 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 2: in America, that's one day after Thanksgiving Day, which we 35 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 2: don't celebrate. Thanksgiving Day is the most traveled day for people. 36 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 2: They've come together as a family. They celebrate the thanksgiving 37 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 2: of the Pilgrims and the settlement of the United States America. 38 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 2: They have their turkey dinner, they have their putting, and 39 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 2: then they turn the television on and watch the Macy's 40 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 2: Parade through New York, which is the heralding of the 41 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 2: start of the Christmas period. It's called Black Friday because 42 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: up until that date, most retailers in America and Australia 43 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 2: have traded the whole year simply paying off overhead wages, rent, 44 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: superannuation taxes and that sort of, and to a large extent, 45 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 2: one hundred percent of the profits for most businesses, retailers 46 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,399 Speaker 2: in particular, occurs this year between Friday, the twenty eighth 47 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 2: of November and the twenty fourth of December. That's why 48 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 2: it's called Black Friday. Is little suggestion that there's a 49 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 2: consumer advantage, benefit and reward, and therefore we're saying, hold on, 50 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 2: is this really relevant and emotional and an evocative for 51 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: Australian consumers to respond to? 52 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: Yeah? All right, So there we go. The pressure is 53 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: on and the amount of money that Amazon and let's 54 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: see and sheen Eli express eBay, they're all right up 55 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: there in terms of major retailers, and they're going to 56 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: make huge amounts of money in the lead up to Christmas. 57 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 2: Let's put that into perspective, because the headline that they 58 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: came out with only in the last twenty four hours 59 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 2: is that they said that Amazon, Timu and Sheen will 60 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: this year represent more than one third of online sales. 61 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 2: Now their forecast is that sales will increase by four 62 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: percent next year. Let's take pause. The consumer price index 63 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: in stroke inflation is around about three percent. That means 64 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: a one percent natural net growth. And there's a population 65 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: in the explosion with immigration of three hundred thousand Australians, 66 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: So that really means in South Australia Adelaide in particular, 67 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 2: you're going to get somewhere between about twenty two and 68 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 2: twenty five thousand additional South Australians there, and they're going 69 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 2: to increase their expenditure by one per It means really 70 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 2: that per capita, well, you know, with Matthew and Barry spending, 71 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 2: we'll be spending less this year than what we did 72 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 2: last year. And you we're supposed to say, gee, this 73 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 2: is an exciting period. So unless we're getting some sort 74 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 2: of incentive or these sugar hits to say hold on 75 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: rather than putting your hand in your pocket and keeping 76 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 2: the money there let's getch you that pulled your hand 77 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 2: out and start spending money. And the only way that 78 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: they seemingly can do that is the enticement of sales, events, bargains, 79 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 2: rewards and advantages and benefits. It's not happening. But Amazon 80 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: is interesting because they said next year those three companies Amazon, 81 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 2: Timu and SINS will do in transaction something in the 82 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: order of eighteen billion dollars. Let's take course, that's six 83 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 2: percent of sales from the online. Now that suggests that 84 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: next year online all Australians will during the course of 85 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 2: twelve months, they spend something in the order of fifty 86 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: billion dollars. Now that's one billion dollars per week. Take 87 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 2: pause again and let's put it into per spectrum. The 88 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:06,119 Speaker 2: Australian high street retailing scene excluding supermarkets is worth about 89 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 2: three hundred and forty billion dollars a year. Therefore, fifty 90 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 2: billion dollars is about fourteen point seven percent, or every 91 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 2: seven dollars is spent, one will actually be spent online. 92 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: And that's about right. Britain is hoping to get up 93 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: to about twenty percent, and I reckon, I'll hit the platter. 94 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: We are lagyards in Australia with online purchases, we're getting 95 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 2: in somewhere in the order of twelve thirteen forty at 96 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 2: a stretch fifteen percent. So the forecast by these companies 97 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 2: is relatively accurate. But interestingly enough, when you look at 98 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 2: it overall, collectively, Amazon, Timo Machine still represent collectively less 99 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 2: than five percent of total sales. So they're having an impact, 100 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: but they're not controlling more than apholizing or dictating exactly 101 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 2: where money is being spent, who's been spending it, and 102 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: to the degree what products and services are being sold. 103 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 1: Unreal, isn't it. So that is a heck of a 104 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: lot of money. And when did we start talking about 105 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: billions as if they're smarties? For goodness, you know, just 106 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 1: those big figures rolling off your tongue there, Barry. It's 107 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: a bit scary. Really, we've got all this money that 108 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: we are outlaying and customer living crisis and all the 109 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: rest of it. 110 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think that's an interesting perspective. Let's put 111 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 2: that again back to there, like and people are saying, well, like, 112 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,799 Speaker 2: go so and listen now, all the people who running 113 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: their businesses in South Australia and South Australia has a 114 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 2: preponderance of small businesses. This year, it's anticipated that twenty 115 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 2: four to twenty seven percent of businesses operating in South 116 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: Australia will participate in a Black Friday event. Now that's 117 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 2: about one in four. It's not a great number. Therefore, 118 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: it's going to be predominantly the department stores, the discount 119 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 2: department stores, the big box retailers, the furniture electrical appliance. 120 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: But to a large body of organizations in South Australia, 121 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 2: they're not going to participate. And most important of all 122 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: the small business sector, and that's employing twenty people or 123 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 2: less or micro businesses five people or less, which byfically 124 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 2: is the family based business. In the first instance, small 125 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 2: businesses up to seventy eight percent or almost four in 126 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 2: five will not be participating in a black Variety event 127 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: during the course of November. Why it's too expensive, the 128 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,239 Speaker 2: profits are lost, there's no loyalty, there's no repeat business, 129 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 2: there's no evidence of increased foot trapping, are much new customers. 130 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 2: So we're doing it, we're competing, but we're not getting 131 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 2: any ongoing recurring advantages and benefit And so why would 132 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: I bother to do that type of situation, and the 133 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 2: micro businesses, ninety two to ninety six percent of those 134 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: people are saying it's all too hard. No, I'll win 135 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 2: business and hold business on things other than discounts. And 136 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: that's a refreshing thing because small businesses are going to say, 137 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 2: personal service, instant responses, accessibility, and relationship marketing. Let's do 138 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 2: that and give people something in terms of saying you 139 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 2: rather than pry savings. And the point that I would 140 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 2: make is, and you hear this all the time, Wow, 141 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: I went out there and I saved so much buying 142 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 2: something on Black by Day. When you've got a cost 143 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: of living crisis that we're living in right now, Matthew, 144 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: the issue is not how much money you've saved, but 145 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: rather how much money have you spent? Did you have 146 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 2: a budget? Did you say hold on those of the 147 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 2: products them and I have? Don't you ever overestimate the 148 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 2: kind of impulse spontaneous purchases for still around about thirty 149 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 2: four cents, and the dollar spent by us, particularly at 150 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 2: this time of the year, our unplanned spontaneous purchases which 151 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 2: can blow the budget and create financial heartache and hiccups. 152 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 2: In February, and March when the credit cards have to 153 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 2: be played out. Yeah. 154 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: Absolutely, that has always forever and a day been the worry, 155 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: hasn't it? For decades now? Ever since bank card came 156 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: along back in what the seventies, I think we've been 157 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: hearing that sad story. Barry, love your insight as always. 158 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time. 159 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,359 Speaker 2: Tonight, Matthew, thank you for the opportunity. 160 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: You're welcome as always, Barry. Barry Rkat from Marketing Focus, 161 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: consumer behavior analyst, and Black Friday is on the way.