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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank is getting a little more worried about

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Speaker 1: inflation as it leaves rates on hold. Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 1: Albanezi joins global leaders in welcoming Donald Trump's peace plan

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Speaker 1: for the Middle East, and Seven West Media to merge

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Speaker 1: with radio groups Southern Cross Media Plus Optics's owner blames

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Speaker 1: staff for network outages, and the White House slaps one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent tariffs on foreign made films. It is Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the first of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: There's plenty going on. The main story this morning. The

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank has sounded a note of caution really about

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Speaker 1: inflationary pressures wavering and confidence about whether price rises are

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Speaker 1: in fact under control and really diminishing the chance of

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Speaker 1: rape cuts later this year.

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Speaker 2: At Central Bank yesterday, lift the official cash rate unchanged

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Speaker 2: at three point six percent and warn than inflation is

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Speaker 2: on track to overshoot its forecasts. That's bad news. The

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Speaker 2: board said that the decline in underlying inflation had slowed

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Speaker 2: since its August meeting. In recent data, while partial and volatile,

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Speaker 2: suggests inflation might be higher than expected. The board statement

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Speaker 2: said stronger than expected data on economic growth and inflation

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Speaker 2: could indicate that households have become more comfortable spending as

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Speaker 2: real incomes and wealth rise, So that's all good news.

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Speaker 2: The thing is, though, that means it might be easier

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Speaker 2: for businesses to pass on high costs to consumers. Preserve VANK.

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Speaker 2: Governor Michelle Bullock, in a press conference after the meeting,

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Speaker 2: said she's been surprised about some of the inflation and

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Speaker 2: growth data, saying that both have been stronger than expected,

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Speaker 2: noting that services inflation in particular has remained sticky. In

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Speaker 2: terms of economic growth, she said it's good news and

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Speaker 2: supports the decision not to cut rates.

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Speaker 1: What's the bottom line, then, sean, are we going to

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Speaker 1: get more rate cuts or are we not going to

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Speaker 1: get more rate cuts?

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Speaker 2: Well, Michelle Bullock says, it's a meeting by meeting proposition.

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Speaker 2: So let's go to the professional investors. What do they reckon?

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Speaker 2: They're actually putting money on this. The three year bond

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Speaker 2: rate rose slightly after the announcement to three point six percent.

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Speaker 2: Now the cash rate is three point six percent. So

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Speaker 2: what that means is that bond investors think that on average,

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Speaker 2: interest rates will stay around the current level on average

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Speaker 2: for the next three years. They have priced in a

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Speaker 2: full rate cut by March next year. There might be

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Speaker 2: a second one after that, but broadly they reckon that.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank maybe one more rate cut, but that's

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Speaker 2: about it. The Reserve Bank Board next meets on Melbourne

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Speaker 2: Cup Day. If the September quarter inflation data which is

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Speaker 2: released later this month comes in around two and a

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Speaker 2: half percent, then a rate cut is probably on higher

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Speaker 2: than that, particularly if that two point seven to two

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Speaker 2: point eight, all bets are off very appropriate for Melbourne

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Speaker 2: Cup Day. Michael my tip and it is only my tip.

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Speaker 2: One more rate cut, maybe two. That'll be over the

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Speaker 2: next nine months, but then they'll be done.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Well, we have seen that. So we've had three

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Speaker 1: rate cuts already this year and we have seen that

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Speaker 1: then feeding into the housing market and pushing prices up,

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Speaker 1: and we are now seeing that in the latest start

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Speaker 1: from cotality, the housing market heading up September delivering the

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Speaker 1: strongest monthly rise in national dwelling values since October twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three. The Home Value Index from totality jumped zero

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Speaker 1: point eight percent last month, driven by capital city momentum

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Speaker 1: and record low listings as well.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so if you take a bit of a longer

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Speaker 2: time frame, because I think that's more helpful. On a

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Speaker 2: quarterly basis, the national value index is up two point

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Speaker 2: two percent. In June court it was only one point

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Speaker 2: five percent. March is one point one percent, so you

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Speaker 2: can really see that trend happening. Growth has once again

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Speaker 2: become very broad based, with every capital city and rest

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Speaker 2: of state region rising. According to cotality, Perth and Brisbane

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Speaker 2: once again pulling ahead of the larger caps. Their values

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Speaker 2: are up four and three and a half percent during

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Speaker 2: that September quarter. If you're interested in you mean Gator

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Speaker 2: kotalit if you're interested in your own quarter. But I'll

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Speaker 2: just run through some of the big ones. So Sydney

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Speaker 2: was up for the quarter two point one percent, Melbourne

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Speaker 2: one percent. Now we've seen auction clearance rates much higher

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Speaker 2: in Melbourne, but up one percent. Brisbane and Perth. We

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Speaker 2: mentioned Adelaide's two and a half percent. Darwin's doing really

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Speaker 2: well almost six percent for the quarter.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning into local markets now, sean equity markets

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Speaker 1: where do we go yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Well, most of the day was waiting to see what

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Speaker 2: the reserve vank did. By the close, y SMPA six

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Speaker 2: two hundred was down ever so slightly, eighty four to

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Speaker 2: nine points. A couple of notables in their IDP education

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Speaker 2: jumped sixteen percent. Now they didn't say anything, it's just

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Speaker 2: jumped sixteen percent. This is a stock that was worth

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Speaker 2: what thirty eight bucks about four years ago. Seven bucks

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Speaker 2: today had all sorts of issues. Anyway, big jump yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Star Entertainment resumed trading and Tom Palmer, the boss of Newmont,

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Speaker 2: the world's top goal Pridge, which is the secondaryist thing

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Speaker 2: on my AX, will step down at the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: It's share price, unlike most other gold stocks, yesterday fell.

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Speaker 1: Sean, it is Wednesday, which is a great day. Got

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Speaker 1: that was very Donald Trump, ask, wasn't it? But it

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Speaker 1: is time for business.

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Speaker 2: By numbers, Donald Trump would be the most magnificent day ever,

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Speaker 2: So understand great day.

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Speaker 1: The top three numbers to know for the week, Sean

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Speaker 1: brought to you by zero zero dot com slash au.

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Speaker 1: What is our first number?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm going at three point six percent, but not

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Speaker 2: because that's the official cash rate. It's because that's what

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Speaker 2: the three year bond rate says, and so, as we mentioned,

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Speaker 2: professional investors reckon that rates are going to average about

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Speaker 2: what they are today over the next three years. I

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Speaker 2: think that's quite interesting.

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Speaker 1: I think so it feels like you needed to justify

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Speaker 1: that just then.

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Speaker 2: But no, I did idea at the end. I did

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Speaker 2: because you know bond rates ever since you say that,

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Speaker 2: everyone starts glazing over.

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Speaker 1: But from what it tells us the long term like

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Speaker 1: that is very interesting. What's our second number to know

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Speaker 1: this week?

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Speaker 2: Seawan well, thirty eight hundred US dollars an ounce That,

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Speaker 2: of course is the mark that gold pushed through yesterday,

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Speaker 2: or actually pushed through a couple of days ago. Quite

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Speaker 2: phenomenal what gold has done, and silver as well. We

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Speaker 2: would have put that one in there too. What that's

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Speaker 2: above forty five US dollars an ounce that's actually outperformed

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Speaker 2: gold this.

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Speaker 1: Year and finally shown our third number is one we

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Speaker 1: haven't actually covered yet.

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Speaker 2: Four hundred and fifteen million dollars the value of a

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Speaker 2: merger if it succeeds of seven West Media in Southern

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Speaker 2: Cross Media.

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Speaker 1: Why.

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Speaker 2: I think that's interesting. These two assets seven West Media

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Speaker 2: as in Channel seven Southern Cross Media, a bunch of

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Speaker 2: radio stations. It's actually not that much. Four hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars. Compare that to the value of Commonwealth

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Speaker 2: Bank at what two hundred and thirty billion dollars. There

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Speaker 2: you go, Yeah, really good point.

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Speaker 1: All right. They are the top three numbers to know

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Speaker 1: for the week. Brought to you by zero Sewn a

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Speaker 1: quick break. We'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news. Sean Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 1: Abernezi says Australia welcomes US President Donald Trump's plan for

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Speaker 1: a peace deal in Gaza, highlighting that Trump's plan would

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Speaker 1: exclude Hermas from future governance in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister called on Hamas to lay down its

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Speaker 2: weapons and release its remaining Israeli hostages, and commended the

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Speaker 2: plan's focus on a Palestinian self determination and statehood, adding

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Speaker 2: that the plan reflects a clear rejection of annexation and

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Speaker 2: the forced displacement of Palestinians. Albanezi added that Australia urges

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Speaker 2: all parties to engage seriously with the plan to work

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Speaker 2: to being its vision into reality without delay. He wasn't

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Speaker 2: alone global leaders from Muslim countries to Western democracies have

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Speaker 2: all at least given lukewarm support. Now we are waiting

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Speaker 2: on the Palestine to hear exactly what it says, though

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Speaker 2: Benjamin Attnahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, has also kind of

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Speaker 2: given tentative support at this point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so broadly we can say that it has been welcomed,

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Speaker 1: but in most cases it's on the proviso that it

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Speaker 1: is followed, and there's a fair bit to it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So in short, the plan begins with the immediate

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Speaker 2: cessation of military operations and says existing battle lines would

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Speaker 2: be frozen in place until conditions are met fray stage

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Speaker 2: to withdrawal of Israel, that is Hamas would lay down

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Speaker 2: its arms, and its tunnels and weapon production facilities would

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Speaker 2: be destroyed. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released

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Speaker 2: over the next seventy two hours, that's dead end alive.

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Speaker 2: Israel will release the remains of fifteen Gazans, the plan says.

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Speaker 2: The plan also stipulates that once both sides agreed to

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Speaker 2: the proposal, full aid will be immediately sent into the

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Speaker 2: Gaza strip. Now, what's interesting in this one, and you

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Speaker 2: were talking about this yesterday in the afternoon report, Michael

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Speaker 2: is the idea of the future governance of Gaza. So

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Speaker 2: a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee will governed temporarily with oversight

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Speaker 2: and supervision by a new international transition body called the

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Speaker 2: Board of Peace. The chair will be Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and even Tony Blair would be part of their

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Speaker 1: former UK PM. So it does feel like it is

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Speaker 1: a very international solution. But yeah, we'll wait and see

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Speaker 1: what the Palestinian response is to this now. Sean staying

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Speaker 1: with the Prime Minister Albanese says the Orcast Pact has

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Speaker 1: been meeting its milestones and is delivering in the interests

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Speaker 1: of all parties. Amid a report that indicated the deal

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Speaker 1: will in fact clear a review by the Pentagon in

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Speaker 1: time for Albanese's trip to the US this month.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So. His comments followed a report in Nickai Asia

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Speaker 2: that said the sale of US submarines to Australia under

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Speaker 2: the Orchest Pact had been endorsed by the Pentagon. US

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Speaker 2: officials told Nicky Asia that the review will be finalized

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Speaker 2: before the PM visits the White House on Octant over twenty.

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Speaker 2: When asked about the report, Albanezy said The Orchest review

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Speaker 2: remains ongoing, but it's been a constructive process. The Pentagon

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Speaker 2: Review of AUCAS wants to ensure the sale of US

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Speaker 2: subs to Australia is part of AUCUST doesn't diminish US

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Speaker 2: military capacity. That's basically what it's about. Just a reminder,

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Speaker 2: Australia will spend three hundred and sixty eight billion dollars

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Speaker 2: over the next thirty years to buy eight nuclear powered

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Speaker 2: Virginia Class subs.

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Speaker 1: We mentioned this next one in our Business by Numbers

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Speaker 1: segment before Shawn, but seven West Media plans to merge

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Speaker 1: with Australia's biggest radio company, Southern Cross Media, to create

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Speaker 1: a four hundred and fifteen million dollar television, radio and

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Speaker 1: publishing group, and as part of the deal, Kerry Stokes,

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Speaker 1: the founder of the Seven Network, he would exit.

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Speaker 2: The didn't think that would ever happen. Southern Cross owns

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Speaker 2: the Triple M Network as well as the Hit Network,

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Speaker 2: which includes stations such as Melbourne's The Fox. Seven owns

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Speaker 2: the West Australian newspaper The Seven Network that of course

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Speaker 2: has AFL and cricket broadcast rights. The share swap will

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Speaker 2: result in such Than Cross controlling the combined business with

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Speaker 2: fifty point one percent sake. Seven shareholders will own forty

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Speaker 2: nine point nine percent. The deal, which is subject to

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Speaker 2: regulatory approval, is expected to be completed by early next year.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned Kerry Stokes there. He is the chair of Seven,

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Speaker 1: He's eighty five years old. Here is its biggest investor.

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Speaker 1: He's going to step down from the merged company's board

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Speaker 1: in February if it all goes through, but his family

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Speaker 1: is still going to retain a seat at the table

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Speaker 1: with son Ryan. He'll remain a director to represent the

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Speaker 1: family's twenty percent steak. They are still a significant shareholder.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sort of a bit in this. So Kerry

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Speaker 2: Stokes back the proposed early yesterday. So it would bring

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Speaker 2: significant financial and strategic benefits to shareholders. Bit of speculation

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Speaker 2: about whether it's just a precursor to the Stokes family

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Speaker 2: getting out of the business. Seven is also the largest

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Speaker 2: shareholder in Southern Cross's main rival, ARN Media. Now that

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Speaker 2: has to be sorted out as well. Previously, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of talk about Southern Cross Media, which is also

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Speaker 2: known as SAA Southern Cross Oosteria, merging with Urn Media. However,

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Speaker 2: we'll have to just sort of see where that one goes.

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Speaker 2: The deal isn't done. The one of the big shareholders,

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Speaker 2: which means eleven percent of Suthern Cross from sand and Capital,

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Speaker 2: doesn't like the proposal, though under the merger document, I

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Speaker 2: don't think shareholders have to vote on this, so we'll

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Speaker 2: see how it turns out now.

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Speaker 1: Sean Sintel chief executive, alongside Optus chief Stephen Rue, have

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Speaker 1: blamed OPTAs staff for triple zero outages that have been

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Speaker 1: linked to four deaths, as Federal Communications Minister Anika Wells

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Speaker 1: said the company must appoint an independent external advisor to

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Speaker 1: oversee its business.

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Speaker 2: Yuan Kwan Moon was in Australia fronting the media for

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Speaker 2: the first time since the telco's two outages over the

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Speaker 2: past eleven days. He said Optus was investigating the cause

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Speaker 2: of the most recent out ea in New South Wales

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Speaker 2: on Sunday, but couldn't still well couldn't quite explain what

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Speaker 2: had happened. A previous outage of Optus's triple zero networks

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Speaker 2: in four states on September eighteen was, and I quote him,

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Speaker 2: due to a step that was missed by someone at Optus,

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Speaker 2: A process issue, a people issue that didn't follow the

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Speaker 2: proper steps. I do feel end quote. I do feel

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Speaker 2: sorry for those individuals when you know the boss of

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Speaker 2: Sintalk comes and says that earlier, Wells spoke to the

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Speaker 2: Sintel and Optis bosses saying the outages were unacceptable, told

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Speaker 2: the company to point external advisors to independently assess its

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Speaker 2: network plans. Nica Wells is very much under pressure from

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Speaker 2: the opposition on this one, although yesterday Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 2: Alberanezi said he stood behind his communications minister.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, Sean and US President Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is slapping a one hundred percent tariff on films

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Speaker 1: made outside of the US, reiterating a threat that he

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Speaker 1: made earlier this year, and honestly I thought it had

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Speaker 1: gone away. It made this against the movie industry, potentially

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Speaker 1: arming the Australian film industry.

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Speaker 2: On social media, Trump said, I quote, and this wasn't

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Speaker 2: his best social media effort yesterday, I think, saying that

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Speaker 2: the Middle East peace plan was it the best best

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Speaker 2: plan in civilization?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, one of civilization's great days. I think something along

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Speaker 1: those lines. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So anyway, but he also was on social media

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Speaker 2: about this one hundred percent tariff. I quote our media

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Speaker 2: making business has been stolen from the United States of

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Speaker 2: America by other countries, just like stealing candy from a baby.

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Speaker 2: And mister Trump, who didn't provide details on the tariffs,

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Speaker 2: has argued that foreign countries I have undermined the US

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Speaker 2: film industry by using tax incentives to get Hollywood productions

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Speaker 2: to shoot overseas. Now, of course that has definitely happened

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Speaker 2: in Australia, there have been tax incentives here. It's unclear

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Speaker 2: how film tariffs would work. For movies aren't physical goods,

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Speaker 2: so they don't travel through report so you can just

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Speaker 2: chuck a tariff on it. So I'm not quite sure

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Speaker 2: how these ones work. Some of this year's biggest Hollywood reductions,

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Speaker 2: including Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning, and Jurassic World Rebirth,

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Speaker 2: were made primarily or entirely outside the US.

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Speaker 1: This one is very confusing, Sean. Finally, the US is

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Speaker 1: heading towards a government shutdown as Democrats and Republicans appear

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Speaker 1: to have little appetite really to avoid it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the last stitch meeting between the President and Democrat

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Speaker 2: leaders in Congress made little progress. If anything, both sides

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Speaker 2: seem to be digging in deeper according to BBC Vice

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Speaker 2: president Ja d Van said, I think we're headed to

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Speaker 2: a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing.

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Speaker 2: Democrats Senate leader Chuck Schumer said they were still there

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Speaker 2: were still very large differences between his party and the

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Speaker 2: White House, which is a bit of an understatement. Really.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, seems that Republicans won a short term extension of

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Speaker 1: current spending levels, essentially just kicking the legislative issue down

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Speaker 1: the road. They're happy with the way things are going,

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Speaker 1: particularly since the Trump administration has been implementing so many

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Speaker 1: spending cuts on it own without the help of Congressional

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Speaker 1: budget setters.

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Speaker 2: And that's really irritated to the Democrats because they're not

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Speaker 2: getting a say in Congress about what should be cut

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Speaker 2: and what shouldn't because Donald Trump's just doing it by

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Speaker 2: executive order. Democrats also want a firm agreement to renew

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Speaker 2: the government health insurance subsidies for low income individuals that

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Speaker 2: expire at the end of this year, something the Republicans

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Speaker 2: have been reluctant to do so far.

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Speaker 1: All right, sean massive show today. Up next is The

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A. Today. Your guest is

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Speaker 1: Innes Willox, who is the chief executive of the Australian

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Speaker 1: Industry Group.

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Speaker 2: It's a great chat because we don't sometimes when you

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Speaker 2: get industry groups on they start saying, well, the government

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Speaker 2: needs to do this, that and the other, and this

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Speaker 2: didn't do that at all. He talks about what business

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Speaker 2: can do themselves to improve their prospects. I mean, at

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Speaker 2: the end we touch on government, but it was much

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Speaker 2: more about businesses being innovative and working in different ways

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Speaker 2: to actually achieve better outcomes. So it's really quite an

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Speaker 2: insightful view from my business leader into how businesses need

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Speaker 2: to operate without relying on government.

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Speaker 1: Here any weighs in on the whole social license to

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Speaker 1: operate as well, which is obviously a critical issue at

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Speaker 1: the moment for Optus and other companies have been really

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Speaker 1: subject to that previously as well. It is a great conversation.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com todayu

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Speaker 1: which is where you sign up for that free daily

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Speaker 1: newsletter I keep banging on about.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the first of October twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.