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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel

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Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation. Hello and welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand.

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Speaker 2: That's me. God, that sounds weird every single time. Absolute

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Speaker 2: pleasure to have your company.

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Speaker 1: We've got an absolute crackerjack episode for you. We've got

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Speaker 1: reports that we could be going to the polls here

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Speaker 1: in Australia just next month. Yes, next month we could

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Speaker 1: be facing an election, or we could not be facing

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Speaker 1: an election. The UK has already just facing an election.

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Speaker 1: It was an absolute blood bath for the Tories. We'll

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Speaker 1: get into some of the reasons in the background behind that.

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Speaker 1: Of course the French election as well, was it rigged?

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Speaker 1: How did it go from Marine le Pen's far right

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Speaker 1: National Rally Party being the number one party to suddenly

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Speaker 1: not even being able to hold power? And of course

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden will he even make it to his election?

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Speaker 1: All that and more, plus your answers to the questions

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Speaker 1: that you've sent in. Thank you very much, and our

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Speaker 1: very first special guest. That's all coming up right now.

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Speaker 1: So first up this week, there was a story on

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Speaker 1: the Daily Mail website by Peter van Onsolin, who is

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Speaker 1: very smart bloke, very well connected bloke, pretty sensible political

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Speaker 1: commentator and journalist, and he well he's a professor of politics, indeed,

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Speaker 1: professor PVO and he set the cat amongst the pigeons

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Speaker 1: with peace. That said basically that Albow, the Prime Minister,

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Speaker 1: was planning to call an election for August thirty. First,

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Speaker 1: that's an election next month, about six weeks away, which

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Speaker 1: is probably earlier than anybody. Even the so called early

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Speaker 1: election theory people have predicted that labor will go to

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Speaker 1: the polls and it sounds kind of crazy, but Peter

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Speaker 1: Van Onsolin makes a pretty good case for it. Firstly,

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Speaker 1: he says there's going to be an interest rate rise coming.

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Speaker 1: It's probably going to be coming in August or September,

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Speaker 1: more likely September, So you want to get the election

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Speaker 1: out of the way before that rate rise comes and

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Speaker 1: eats into everybody's tax cuts and energy rebates. And if

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Speaker 1: there's an election campaign on, the RBA might be a

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Speaker 1: bit shy in raising interest rates because it doesn't want

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Speaker 1: to be seen to be getting political. Another tactical reason,

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Speaker 1: of course, would be that it would sort of wrong

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Speaker 1: foot or get the jump on this new Muslim vote

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Speaker 1: movement which is threatening the Albenzi government in four or

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Speaker 1: five really key labor seats, seats the absolute diet in

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Speaker 1: the wall labor safe as houses, but could potentially maybe

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Speaker 1: be vulnerable to a protest vote on Palestine. So if

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Speaker 1: the Albanezi government goes early before those people have had

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Speaker 1: a chance to get organized, get their ducks in a row,

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Speaker 1: maybe you could sort of wrongfoot them. And of course

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Speaker 1: this would get everyone voting at the time when they're

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Speaker 1: getting that money from the tax cuts and they're getting

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Speaker 1: that money from their energy rebate that three hundred dollars off,

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Speaker 1: which coincidentally happens to be roughly similar to the two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five dollars that Anthony Albanezi promised that

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Speaker 1: every Australian's power bill would be reduced.

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Speaker 2: By by twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not sure it's happening, and I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: it's happening. Firstly, because the one thing that happens whenever

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Speaker 1: a story like this breaks is that every journal on

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Speaker 1: the press galery, every journal has anything to do with politics,

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Speaker 1: will do one of two things. Firstly, they'll say, oh,

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Speaker 1: that's bullshit because they didn't break it, and it's not theirs,

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Speaker 1: and so if it turns out to be true and

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Speaker 1: they didn't get the story, then they look bad, so

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Speaker 1: they'll do everything they can to poopoot. The other thing

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Speaker 1: they'll do, of course, though, is hit the phones and

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Speaker 1: call everyone they know to find out if it's actually true.

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Speaker 1: And the thing with this story that was interesting about

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Speaker 1: it was kind of the thing that wasn't that interesting

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Speaker 1: about it, which is that it sort of sank without

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Speaker 1: a trace. It didn't end up sort of creating this

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Speaker 1: momentum where everyone was suddenly on stand by, everyone suddenly

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Speaker 1: on tenor hooks waiting for him to drive to yar

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Speaker 1: Alumlin and tell the GG to issue the ritz and

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Speaker 1: call the election. So that's one thing. And again it

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Speaker 1: didn't seem to cause much of a ripple even among

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Speaker 1: labor circles themselves. A very well connected labor made of

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Speaker 1: mine that I spoke to us. So what did you

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Speaker 1: think of Pvo's article?

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Speaker 2: He goes, what one?

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Speaker 1: So it wasn't exactly when there's an election coming, when

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Speaker 1: everyone is getting set to go, word ripples around the

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Speaker 1: labor party like wildfire. Everyone gets on a campaign footing

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Speaker 1: and everyone is basically told, okay, get ready, to go.

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Speaker 1: They're about to fire the gun. It's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: And of course, there was a leak of a memo

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Speaker 1: that went around earlier this year from the head of

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Speaker 1: the PM's office that suggested that there could be an

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Speaker 1: election year. So again, maybe it is, but maybe not.

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Speaker 1: And I think the smart money, or most of the

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Speaker 1: smart money is still on what I've been told, which

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Speaker 1: is that the PM will go the distance insofar as

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Speaker 1: things don't change. You never know, we could be invaded

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Speaker 1: by aliens and the aliens say hold an election on

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Speaker 1: August thirty first, or you know, things change, People change,

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Speaker 1: As j. Maynard Kane said, when the circumstances change, I

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Speaker 1: changed my mind.

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Speaker 2: What do you do?

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Speaker 1: So, you know, Anthony alberanez he changed his mind about

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Speaker 1: Stage three tax cuts. Maybe he'll change his mind about

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Speaker 1: going all the way and not having an election until

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Speaker 1: the first half of next year and go early. But

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Speaker 1: there's another reason why he just can't or at least

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Speaker 1: probably shouldn't go early this year. And that was revealed

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Speaker 1: in a news poll that came out earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: and it found that labor is on the slide in

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Speaker 1: a couple of key battleground States, and also that it's

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Speaker 1: losing voters among the young, and also among the kind

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Speaker 1: of middle age, the middle age roughly trans sort of

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Speaker 1: middle aged, boring, mainstream suburban Australia, and they're the people

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Speaker 1: you really got to keep on board. The young you

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Speaker 1: don't need to worry about. When you're young, you're stupid,

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Speaker 1: you're radical. As Winston Churchill was supposed to have said,

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Speaker 1: if you're not a socialist when you're eighteen, you have

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Speaker 1: no heart, and if you're still a socialist when you're fifty,

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Speaker 1: you have no head. And I reckon that's about right.

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Speaker 1: I was a crazy teen student socialist.

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Speaker 2: I was an idiot. I did not know Jack.

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Speaker 1: I did not know anything about politics. I did not

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Speaker 1: know anything about how the world work. As I've found out,

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Speaker 1: needless to say, I've become more mellow and I'm sharing

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Speaker 1: everything I know with you right now. So those votes

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Speaker 1: are going to go off to the left. Maybe they're

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Speaker 1: angry about what the government's doing in Palestine and they'll

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Speaker 1: go off to the Greens, but they'll always come back

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Speaker 1: to Labor. Any vote that goes to the Greens is

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Speaker 1: not going to then flow to the Liberal Party or

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Speaker 1: the coalition before it comes back to labor. And eighty

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Speaker 1: percent or thereabouts of Green's votes all come back to labor.

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Speaker 1: So if it loses them in the first place, unless

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Speaker 1: it's going head to head with the Greens in one

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Speaker 1: of the seats in a Brisbane or inner Melbourne or

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Speaker 1: indeed in a Sydney maybe one day, unless it's going

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Speaker 1: to one of those seats which they've already lost so

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Speaker 1: there's not much left to lose, then those votes are

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Speaker 1: going to come back to lay. But it doesn't need

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Speaker 1: to worry about the young seters. What it does need

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Speaker 1: to worry about. Who it does need to worry about

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Speaker 1: is those middle aged, suburban workaday hacks like myself, the

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Speaker 1: people who slept day in, day out, forty hours come back.

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Speaker 1: They've got two point three kids, need to put food

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Speaker 1: on the table, they've got a mortgage, they're worried about

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Speaker 1: interest rates look like they're going up. If they are

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Speaker 1: shifting away from you, that's where you've got a real problem,

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Speaker 1: and they are shifting away from labor, and that is

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Speaker 1: a real problem. Now in the two big states, the

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Speaker 1: two most important states arguably the next election, New South

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Speaker 1: Wales and Queensland. Now the coalition is now ahead in

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Speaker 1: New South Wales fifty one forty nine, and that's a

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Speaker 1: scary enough number. And this is basically based on all

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Speaker 1: the news polls from April till about June's worth of

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Speaker 1: news polls. They basically add them all together so they've

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Speaker 1: got a statistically significant sample size and then they can

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Speaker 1: do those state by state breakdowns. So this is not

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Speaker 1: about how people were feeling last week. It's an aggregate

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Speaker 1: of how people were feeling across the last three months.

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Speaker 1: So fifty one forty nine in New South Wales, that's

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Speaker 1: not great. Fifty one forty nine the coalition's way. In

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Speaker 1: Queensland that figure is fifty four to forty six the

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Speaker 1: Coalition's way. Now, if that gets replicated, say even on

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Speaker 1: a federal scale, if you have a you know, fifty

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Speaker 1: three percent is a landslide, fifty four percent is a

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Speaker 1: blood bath. And in Queensland, of course, they've got a

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Speaker 1: state election coming up towards the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: October or November.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't really matter when it is, because the result is

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Speaker 1: going to be exactly the same. Stephen Miles and Queensland

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Speaker 1: Labor are going to be taken to the top paddock

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Speaker 1: and slaughtered. They are going to be put down. They're

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Speaker 1: going to be put out of their misery. It is

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Speaker 1: all over, red over, and that's all well and good whatever,

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Speaker 1: that's democracy, yay. Point being, voters in Queensland are so angry,

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Speaker 1: so fed up, that they're basically going to just kill

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Speaker 1: the first MP they see. They're just waiting with brick

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Speaker 1: backs and they're going to whack the first labor MP

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Speaker 1: they can get their hands on. And that means that

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Speaker 1: if labor goes to an election federally before labor has

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Speaker 1: had a chance to go to the state election, it

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Speaker 1: means those federal labor MPs, even though it's not their fault,

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Speaker 1: even though they're federal not state, it means that they

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Speaker 1: will cop all that heat. So the conventional political wisdom

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Speaker 1: is you let people go take out all their anger

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Speaker 1: on a state government and once they're done that, they

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Speaker 1: oh feel better, and then you can go to the

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Speaker 1: polls a few months down the track and people have

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Speaker 1: got it out of their system. They're not angry at

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Speaker 1: labor anymore. And indeed they've got a new liberal government

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Speaker 1: in Queensland to be angry at.

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Speaker 2: And voters often vote for a bit of balance.

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Speaker 1: A really important figure was Jeff Kennett getting in in

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Speaker 1: Victoria in a landslide. I think that was actually fifty

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Speaker 1: four forty six, so trust me, I know what a

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Speaker 1: blood bath looked like. He got in the end of

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two, and everyone thought, oh, that's it, you know,

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Speaker 1: labor in Victoria dead in the water.

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Speaker 2: No.

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Speaker 1: The following year, in March, Paul Keating won the unwinnable election,

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Speaker 1: the antijst election against John Houston, and he actually won

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Speaker 1: it by picking up seats in Victoria because people were

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Speaker 1: so angry at labor in nineteen ninety two that they

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Speaker 1: voted them out in a massive, massive landslide tsunami and

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Speaker 1: they got all out of their system.

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Speaker 2: And then they had Jeff and they thought, okay, grat

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Speaker 2: and then.

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Speaker 1: Jeff starts going crazy and doing all his stuff, and

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Speaker 1: they oh, well, we've got here, maybe we better vote

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Speaker 1: for a bit of balance. Federally, they did it in

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Speaker 1: New South Wales as well, where they kept electing Bob

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Speaker 1: Carr John Howard Bob Carr, John Howard election after election.

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Speaker 1: They kept voting one way on the state level and

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Speaker 1: another way at federally. So Anthony Alberesi needs to hope

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Speaker 1: that that is the kind of balance, that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of fulcrum that will happen in Queensland. They'll be filthy

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Speaker 1: at Labor on a state level, they'll get it all

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Speaker 1: out of their system and then they'll be happy enough

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Speaker 1: to vote for him at the next federal election once

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Speaker 1: they've got their LNP government in Brisbane. But if Labor

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Speaker 1: goes to the polls on August the thirty first, as

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Speaker 1: has been suggested by the venerable PBO, then Anthony Alberesi

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Speaker 1: and not Steven Miles could find themselves the punching bag

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Speaker 1: for Queensland voters. And that's why I think he will

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Speaker 1: still go the distance, or still go to early next year.

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Speaker 1: You heard it here first. If I'm wrong, forget you

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Speaker 1: heard anything. Meanwhile, in America, the election campaign is being

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Speaker 1: run by PT.

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Speaker 2: It is amazing. It is a circus.

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Speaker 1: It is like a Monty Python sketch combined with a

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Speaker 1: surreal bad acid flashback from Pink Floyd's The Wall. It's

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Speaker 1: just got absolutely everything in it. Now we all know

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Speaker 1: that Joe Biden's brain has taken a bit of a

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Speaker 1: day off in lou Or indeed a year off in

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Speaker 1: lou It's just terrible. It's embarrassing. He's calling into breakfast

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Speaker 1: TV shows randomly. It sounded like he was calling from

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Speaker 1: the bathroom. You can almost hear his aides going.

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Speaker 2: Holy shit, we forgot about the phone and the toilet.

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Speaker 2: Someone take it off him.

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Speaker 1: They're refusing to answer questions about how many times a

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Speaker 1: neurologist has visited the White House, or whether or not

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden has seen that neurologist, or what's wrong with him.

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Speaker 1: We all know the debate was an absolute fiasco. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump has now challenged Joe Biden to a debate without

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Speaker 1: a moderator. He's also challenged him to a golf game.

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Speaker 1: He's challenged him to a round of golf, and he

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Speaker 1: says he'll give a million bucks to charity. It's this,

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Speaker 1: It's just it's madness. It's amazing. It's just an amazing show. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: A couple of quick things I thought I would mention

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Speaker 1: about this. One is that the prevailing wisdom these days

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Speaker 1: is that Joe Biden has to go. While most Democrats

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Speaker 1: are kind of, you know, towing the party line, it's

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Speaker 1: so obvious that he has to go. I mean when

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Speaker 1: he rang up MSNBC in the Morning Joe Show, he

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Speaker 1: started talking about these democrats alite, these elites, these elite democrats,

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Speaker 1: so they're.

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Speaker 2: Out to get me.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he sounded like Tucker Carlson, like you are

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Speaker 1: an elite democrat.

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Speaker 2: The people are out to get there, your own people.

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Speaker 1: By the way, you've got Whoopi Goldberg on the view

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Speaker 1: saying she doesn't care if Joe Biden poops his pants,

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Speaker 1: She's still going to vote for him. So Whoopy Goldberg,

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Speaker 1: thanks for helping. Whoopy has now raised the prospect of

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden not being senile but wearing an adult diaper.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure this is the point where your candidate

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Speaker 1: becomes untenable.

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Speaker 2: Anyway.

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Speaker 1: So among those saying, look, Joe's just got to go,

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Speaker 1: Joe's just got to go, the prevailing wisdom seems to

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Speaker 1: be that he hands it over to wait for it. No,

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Speaker 1: not Michelle Obama, which, of course polls have shown is

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Speaker 1: the only candidate who could safely or definitely beat Trump. No,

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Speaker 1: it goes to Krmala Harris, who, depending on who you

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Speaker 1: talk to, is the only candidate less popular than Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: So why is this happening. What is going on? Well,

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Speaker 1: don't you just love campaign finances? The thing with Karmala

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Speaker 1: Harris is she is the only person that the nomination

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Speaker 1: can go to who can still get all the campaign

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Speaker 1: money that's been donated. There is something like two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty million dollars that's been donated to Joe Biden's

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Speaker 1: campaign that if he doesn't run, that money disappears unless

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Speaker 1: it stays with the ticket. So the Democrats are in

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Speaker 1: this horrible position where you've got the person if they

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Speaker 1: can persuade her. And Michelle Obama said, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to run, but you've got this person who is a

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Speaker 1: clean skin. She's wildly popular. All the polling shows that

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Speaker 1: she could beat Trump. It's a lay down masaiir, right,

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Speaker 1: But she costs a quarter of a billion bucks. You pick her,

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Speaker 1: you say goodbye to all that money. And so it

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Speaker 1: has to go to Kamala Harris, who at least can

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Speaker 1: string a sentence together. And some people say, are coming back.

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Speaker 1: The other interesting tidbit about it is how can you

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Speaker 1: actually get rid of him? Well, the Democrats did put

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Speaker 1: a clause into their primary processes in twenty sixteen when

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Speaker 1: there were question marks. And again, doesn't this take you

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Speaker 1: back remember in twenty sixteen when there were questions about

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton's mental and physical capabilities. Oh what we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: give to have her back, huh. Anyway, they actually used

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Speaker 1: to kind of I don't know what you call it

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Speaker 1: a kill switch or whatever, where you could say, all right,

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Speaker 1: even if she's got all the nominations or whatever, and

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Speaker 1: she's the presumptive candidate or whatever it goes convention, if

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Speaker 1: she's not a sound mind or body, you can say

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Speaker 1: all right. But apparently I'm also told I don't. It's

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Speaker 1: not so much a kill switch as a suicide switch.

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Speaker 1: The candidate has to actually be persuaded to tap the

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Speaker 1: mat and drop out. And of course the problem with

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Speaker 1: having a candidate who's deranged is that the most sensible

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Speaker 1: thing to do that everyone around them can see is

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Speaker 1: the one thing they're not going to do because they're deranged.

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Speaker 1: So it's a catch twenty two times two. Over to

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Speaker 1: Europe now, and my god, if you thought America has cooked,

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Speaker 1: Europe might just have days left to live.

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Speaker 2: So what's happened?

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Speaker 1: Well, we all know that in the European Union elections,

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Speaker 1: the far right got this massive, massive influx of votes,

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Speaker 1: this huge kind of tsunami of votes towards them.

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Speaker 2: That scared the Jesus out of everybody, and it made

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Speaker 2: a money on the cron.

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Speaker 1: Exclaim mon dieux and rushed to the polls and say right,

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Speaker 1: we're going to have our parliamentary elections in France right away.

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Speaker 1: So you've got the President of France who kind of

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Speaker 1: sits a baves directly elected to buy the French people,

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Speaker 1: and then you've got the parliament elections, which has elect

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Speaker 1: MPs to the Estates general. Recalling of the States General

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Speaker 1: was I think what led to the French Revolution in

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Speaker 1: seventeen eighty nine. So it's a high risk proposition when

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Speaker 1: you're doing this, and of course that produces their prime ministers.

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Speaker 1: So the president's responsible is the head of state, responsible

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Speaker 1: for most foreign policy and everything. Prime ministers responsible for

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Speaker 1: most of the domestic staff, and of course all the

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Speaker 1: MP's yeah, yeah, yeah, you don't need to know.

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Speaker 2: All that point.

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Speaker 1: Being in the first vote for these parliamentary positions, Marine

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Speaker 1: le Penn's National Rally party did incredibly well. It just

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Speaker 1: absolutely smashed all the other parties around them. And so

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Speaker 1: what did the government do. They were about to be

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Speaker 1: overtaken by this enormously popular and populist right wing far

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Speaker 1: right or hard right or populist right, whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to call it, a movement that's been threatening French politics

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Speaker 1: from the edges for decades now, and it looked like

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Speaker 1: it was actually going to We're going to be the

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Speaker 1: prime minister. Their guy, very young, good looking chap was

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Speaker 1: going to be the next prime minister of France. So

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Speaker 1: what happened, Well, this is something you might call Fabian

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Speaker 1: tactics or something.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of it's almost like sort of throwing the

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Speaker 1: fight to win the fight. So what Macron did is

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Speaker 1: basically pull his centrist candidates. So he's got a centrist

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Speaker 1: party called something like Renaissance or Renewal or some wanky

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Speaker 1: kind of frenchy name. He basically pulled his candidates from

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Speaker 1: any seat where he thought they were splitting the left

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Speaker 1: to send left vote, and that was an awful lot

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Speaker 1: of seats. I think something like two hundred candidates might

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Speaker 1: have been pulled or something. I may just be making

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Speaker 1: that up, but whatever, And that meant that this weird

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Speaker 1: sort of coalition, which I think is called the Popular

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Speaker 1: Front all these just some normal people, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of just terrible people like Trot's commies, you know, Marxists, Radicals, Greens,

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Speaker 1: you name it, terrible people, but also some just normal

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Speaker 1: left wing people as well. That they were able to

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Speaker 1: form this well, they had just formed this coalition, was

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Speaker 1: formed almost overnight literally just for this election, this kind

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Speaker 1: of coalition called the Popular Front, and suddenly all the

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Speaker 1: votes went into this one grab bag of crazies who

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Speaker 1: are only probably marginally better than the crazy far right

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Speaker 1: party and much less united.

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Speaker 2: But they won.

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Speaker 1: They beat the far right, they beat the National Rally

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Speaker 1: Party and got more sets. They're not going to be

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Speaker 1: able to fall government because no one has actually got

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Speaker 1: a majority, and so god knows who's going to be

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Speaker 1: the next prime minister or it's going to work. But

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Speaker 1: a very interesting tactical maneuver from the French president Emmanuel Macron,

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Speaker 1: who basically used his incredible weakness as a strength. Albeit

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Speaker 1: he delivered power to someone who was his enemy on

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Speaker 1: the left, but it stopped him from seeding power to

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Speaker 1: someone who was a greater enemy on the right. And

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Speaker 1: that kind of tells you everything you need to know

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Speaker 1: about politics. It's not about the best outcome, it's about.

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Speaker 2: The least worst.

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Speaker 1: And now over to the UK where Labor leader Keir

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Speaker 1: Starmer aka the greatest human being in the known universe,

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Speaker 1: has taken the party not just from the evil clutches

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Speaker 1: of Jeremy Corbyn, notorious trote, anti Semite, you name it.

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Speaker 1: He's been expelled for the party for the anti Semitism

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Speaker 1: that flourished and indeed was fueled under his watch. And

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Speaker 1: Kirstarma has taken the Labor Party back to the center

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Speaker 1: and it has just paid off in spades, about four

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Speaker 1: hundred spades to be precise, well not spades, seats in

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Speaker 1: the House of Representative House of Commons, I should say.

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Speaker 2: They have commoners in the UK, not representati. It's so cute.

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Speaker 1: They also have lords, but that's another story. So Kirs

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Speaker 1: Darma has won this massive majority, all but unprecedented, the

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Speaker 1: biggest majority in decades and decades and decades and decades,

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Speaker 1: I think, maybe even bigger than Tony Blairs. And the

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Speaker 1: incredible thing is that he has done this. He's got

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Speaker 1: about two thirds of the seats in the House of

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Speaker 1: Commons and he's managed to do it with just one

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Speaker 1: third of the vote. So the UK has a first

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Speaker 1: past the post system, unlike our preferential system. So firstly,

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Speaker 1: voting is voluntary in the UK, and so you don't

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Speaker 1: have to show up, and many people didn't. And also

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Speaker 1: if you drop out of a race, as you do

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Speaker 1: in every single seat in Australia, if the lower candidate

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Speaker 1: drops out, the candidate who gets the fewest votes, their

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Speaker 1: votes are then redistributed to all the other candidates. So

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Speaker 1: your number, you know, you vote one for the Animal

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Speaker 1: Welfare Party or whatever, and then two for Labor. Animal

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Speaker 1: Welfare drops out and two goes to Labor. Of course

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Speaker 1: you would have voted too for the Greens, but I

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Speaker 1: don't want to get into the specifics of it anyway.

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Speaker 1: Point being in the UK, that doesn't happen at all.

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Speaker 1: It's just whoever gets the most votes. They don't even

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Speaker 1: have to get, you know, fifty percent or more of

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Speaker 1: the votes in any given burrow which is their electorates.

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Speaker 1: They just have to get more than anyone else, and

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Speaker 1: as soon as that happens, they come in. And so

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Speaker 1: if you've got a fractured electorate where no one likes

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Speaker 1: politics or politicians and they're just fed up to the

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Speaker 1: back teeth, which when you've had about fifty prime ministers

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Speaker 1: in forty nine days, as they have in the UK,

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Speaker 1: is going to make you pretty fed up with politics.

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Speaker 1: People are sort of you know, well, A then likely

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Speaker 1: to just not show up to the election in the

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Speaker 1: first place, and then b they might vote for new,

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Speaker 1: clean skin candidates Independence who say they're going to you know,

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Speaker 1: shake things up or whatever, and that you know, neither

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Speaker 1: the Tories or Labor or any good and that means

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Speaker 1: that that vote that the actual major.

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Speaker 2: Parties get is much reduced.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of people are saying that, you know,

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Speaker 1: Kirs Starmer didn't really lose the election so much as

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Speaker 1: the toy is really badly lost it similar to what

434
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 1: happened in Australia where the vote against Scott Morrison and

435
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: the Coalition at the last election it was a massive,

436
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: absolutely smashed, But when it came to reaping the dividends

437
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: and Anthony Alberinez he didn't actually get that much. He

438
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: only snuck over the line with a couple of seat

439
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: majorities thanks to a massive swing a late swing from WA.

440
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 1: It was really tooth and nail for a while and

441
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 1: he was on a really low primary vote in the

442
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: low thirties.

443
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 2: So anyway, obviously everything comes back to Albou.

444
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: But let's just go back to the UK for a second,

445
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: and then we will actually come back to Albout, because

446
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 3: it does come back to albat But point being, Keys,

447
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: Starmers and Labor pulled off this massive cup where they've

448
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 3: just beaten the other candidates and got more votes than them.

449
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: But that's still only about a third of voters, and

450
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 1: they've come back with two thirds of the seats in

451
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 1: the House of Commons. And this is upset people who

452
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: support it, Nigel Farag's Reform UK Party, because they're saying,

453
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: hang on a minute, like we've got fifteen percent of

454
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: the vote and you only got thirty percent of the vote.

455
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: We should have half your seats, half the number of

456
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: seats that you've got. Instead they've got about five at

457
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: last count or something nothing And you know, well, tough

458
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 1: titties quite frankly, but that's because those votes are all

459
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: spread all over the country quite evenly. That's a terrible

460
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: thing in a first part the post system. If you

461
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: want to win seats, you want to concentrate all your

462
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: votes in the burrows that they're going to actually count.

463
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: Towards there's no point having you know, five percent in

464
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: every single burrow, every single electorate in the country and

465
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 1: they all add up to a massive number. If it's

466
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: still five percent in every seat, and whoever gets, say

467
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: thirty percent in that seat is going to win. And

468
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: so the Reform UK party actually got more than the

469
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 1: Liberal Democrats. Liberal Democrats have only got about ten percent

470
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 1: of the vote compared to Reform UK's fifteen percent. There's

471
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: only two thirds of vote they got, but instead they

472
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 1: walk away with something like forty seats because they've got

473
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: established candidates and all their votes come from particular areas.

474
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: So it's like again having a Greens MP in Australia

475
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 1: winning a majority of votes in a seat like Melbourne

476
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 1: or one of the inner city Brisbane seats, but of

477
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: course still the Greens only having about ten twelve percent nationwide.

478
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: So a little bit of a sort of explainer on

479
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,719
Speaker 1: why the Reform UK people are so upset and why

480
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 1: they got fifteen percent more than the Liberal Democrats ten percent.

481
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 2: It's because politics.

482
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 1: As John Howard said, is the simple art of arithmetic,

483
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: and Reform UK's numbers simply donate up. But as I said,

484
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 1: all roads lead to Albo, and a lot of people

485
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: are looking at the results in another five seats in

486
00:25:55,560 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: the UK election, where pro Palestine candidates won again against

487
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: the major parties. Now I'm not quite sure of the

488
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 1: story that this really tells, but one of those seats

489
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: at least was won by a former Labor leader and

490
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,479
Speaker 1: Labor pariah, Jeremy Corbyn, who quit the party and then

491
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: ran against his old party. What a guy, And of

492
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: course he is just a ferociously trotty pro Palestinian activist.

493
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: And I think a couple of the other two were

494
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: sort of Green seats, so they had Greens who were

495
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 1: very very pro Palestinian, but again a sort of established party,

496
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: albeit a kind of crazy fringe party. Anyway, this has

497
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 1: brought home the question of what will happen in Australia.

498
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: What will happen at the next federal election here with

499
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: this Muslim vote movement, same name as the movement in

500
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 1: the UK, Well, I've got a feeling it might not

501
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: be quite all it's cracked up to be. There's a

502
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: couple of things. One is that, like all religions, Islam

503
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: has split along kind of sectarian lines. You've got Sunni

504
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: Muslim Shaheite Muslims, and they don't really see.

505
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 2: Eye to eye.

506
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: But like Catholics and Protestants, you know, often you hate

507
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: the people who are closer to you more than you

508
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: hate the people who are of a different religion entirely.

509
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 1: So again, if you've got a Muslim vote, is it

510
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 1: a Sunni vote?

511
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 2: Is it a vote?

512
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: Would Sunni voters vote for a shout candidate? I don't know,

513
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: Like you, look at what happens in other parts of

514
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: the world, so would they vote for each other? And

515
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: here in beautiful, peace loving, multicultural Australia we shall see.

516
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:31,479
Speaker 1: But I'm told that certainly there's a feeling among labor

517
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: that the threat might not be as real simply because

518
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 1: there's internal division. There doesn't seem to be that much

519
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: organization around it either. Fatom a Payment may be furiously

520
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: working the phones or calling people drawing up an election strategy,

521
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: but we haven't quite seen it, so I'm not quite

522
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,959
Speaker 1: sure if that is going to happen.

523
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 2: Of course, the other.

524
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: Question is it just a Muslim vote thing or is

525
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: it a propeller anti Israel vote thing. Therefore, would all

526
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: these pro Palestinian votes come out that weren't necessarily Muslim.

527
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: Again, I don't think so.

528
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: If you look at the white activist or non Muslim

529
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: activist pro Palestinian camps, they're not in those suburbs of

530
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 1: western and southwestern Sydney. Those are not working class people. Typically,

531
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 1: they are usually middle class uni students, student socialists, wider

532
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: than the driven snow. You can see them camped outside

533
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanese's Electric office in Marrickville, because they're the sort

534
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 1: of places they live. They live in the inner city,

535
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 1: they live in the seats that vote Green or have

536
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: very high Green votes. So you know, thinking Melbourne, Albo's

537
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: own seat, Sydney, the inner city seats of Brisbane that

538
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 1: have already fallen to the Green. So again, I don't

539
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: think those people necessarily The pro Palestinian votes that are

540
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: in Western Sydney I think are pro Palestinian votes on

541
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: the basis of those people being Muslim and having a

542
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: strong affinity with Palestine as a concept as a nation

543
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: state and possibly also with the region as well. I

544
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: don't think it's just crazy, wild eyed, noodle armed activists

545
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: who spend the rest of their days chaining themselves to trees. Now,

546
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: our very first guest on the Real Story is someone

547
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: who I think is worthy of that honor. He is

548
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 1: a labor elder statesman of the highest caliber. He is

549
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: the former secretary, that is, the big big boss, the

550
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: boss of bosses of the New South Wales Labor Council.

551
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: And we'll find out why that's important in just a

552
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: little while. Also a former senior vice president of the

553
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: great or powerful New South Wales branch of the Australian

554
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: Labor Party. And he's also now the author of a

555
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: book on Labour's very first prime minister. It's called In

556
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: Search of John Christian Watson, Labour's first Prime Minister, and

557
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: it's published by Connor Cord. I strongly recommend you get

558
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: yourself a copy. It's a fascinating insight into the very

559
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: making of the Labor Party in Australia. And its author

560
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: joins me right now, Michael Esan, welcome to the real Story.

561
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: How are you late to see you again?

562
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 4: Joe?

563
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: Now, Michael, we've been talking a lot, and for some

564
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: of us, I suppose we never thought it would actually

565
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: come to this. But there is talk at the moment

566
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: about whether or not this one hundred and twenty or

567
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two I think to be precise

568
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: year old rule of the Labor Party, the binding caucus,

569
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: that all Labor MPs are bound to vote the same

570
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: way unless there's a conscience vote. And this was a

571
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: rule that came into place I think in nineteen oh

572
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: two from memory, just a few years after the formation

573
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: of the Labor Party itself and the subject of your book.

574
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: Chris Watson is the very first Labor Prime Minister and

575
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: he had to contend with these sorts of pressures and

576
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: demands in a very febrile environment. Talk us through John

577
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: Christian Watson's first stint as or only stint and very

578
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 1: brief stint as Labour's first prime minister and the sort

579
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: of forces he was dealing with in the parliament.

580
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 4: Look, John Christian Watson was like by everyone in the Parliament,

581
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 4: and that's astonishing when you consider most politician. He was

582
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 4: liked by the Conservatives, he was liked by the different

583
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 4: faction in the Labor Party. He was a unifier. Now,

584
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 4: the Labor Party in this early period had a lot

585
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: of people in favor of protection and a lot in

586
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 4: favor of free trade. That's right, and so the party

587
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 4: allowed a conscience vote on all of those issues and

588
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 4: wanted to caucus the members of the Parliament on all

589
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 4: other issues. And that became, I think a bit more

590
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 4: rigid after the split in the Labor Party in nineteen sixteen,

591
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: after John Christian Watson had left the parliament. He left

592
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 4: in nineteen ten, but in nineteen sixteen conscription erupted.

593
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: Billy Hughes, Billy.

594
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 4: Hughes, lots of people, pretty well, every significant can figure,

595
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 4: but one in the New South Wald ministry left the

596
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 4: party or Walt expelled.

597
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: And so you talked about the protectionists the free traders.

598
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: These were of course the two other major parties at

599
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: the time. And there's a lovely line in your book.

600
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: I think it's from Alfred Deacon who says, this is

601
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: a parliament of three elevens. In other words, this is

602
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: like playing a game of cricket, a Test match with

603
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: three sides instead of two, and one of the sides

604
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,959
Speaker 1: keep changing which side it's on. And John Kriston Watson

605
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: is in the middle of this, isn't he So he's

606
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: got He is.

607
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 4: The first prime minister, with Edmund Barton from New South

608
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 4: Wales a protectionate, then followed by Deacon, and as you mentioned,

609
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 4: we roughly had a third or third or third in

610
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: the Parliament, and Watson became Prime Minister for one hundred

611
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 4: and thirteen days in nineteen oh four. And many people

612
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 4: say that Deacon, who was the liberal smaller old liberal

613
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 4: Victorian protection with Temp to form a coalition with Labor,

614
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 4: as was Watson, but they didn't end up there. But

615
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 4: you're right. The division in the parliament ultimately meant that

616
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: the three eleven became two to eleven and Labor became

617
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 4: the dominant opposition party and then the government.

618
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: So this is the birth of the two party system, basically,

619
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: it really was. And the reason why I wanted to

620
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: talk to you and talk about this now is we're

621
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: seeing possibly the beginnings of the fracturing of that system,

622
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: not quite yet in the parliament, although we may be

623
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: heading towards minority government and probably are, But in the

624
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: electorate we are seeing now a shift away from where

625
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,479
Speaker 1: just a couple of decades ago, each of the major parties,

626
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: the Coalition and Labor would get over forty percent of

627
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: the primary vote each and the rest would be sort

628
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: of distributed among the minor parties and then come back.

629
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: Now we're looking at a system in the electorate at

630
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 1: least where the vote is very much about a third

631
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: for the Coalition, about a third for Labor, and about

632
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: a third for other minor parties. Do you think that

633
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: the two party system is fracturing now?

634
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 4: I do think that's the very good point, and we're

635
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 4: seeing the emergence of the three eleven. But Liberal and

636
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 4: Labor are much stronger than those parties bunched in the middle,

637
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: and those parties are very much divided. I think it's

638
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 4: interesting with Senator Payment that she never pressed the point

639
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 4: about having a conscience vote on some issues, and I'm

640
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 4: very disappointed that she stuck to the position she did,

641
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 4: especially given the Labor Party in the Senate with proposing

642
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 4: resolutions in favor of recognizing Palestine as part of a

643
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 4: two state solution. But instead of saying, can I have

644
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 4: a bit of freedom and flexibility, she actually baited people

645
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 4: and decided, I think months ago, to walk out.

646
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: That's right, it actually seems, and this is why people

647
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: who perhaps haven't given much attention to this issue but

648
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: just sort of see their headlines, think, oh, she's just

649
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: being punished for speaking her mind. In fact, this is

650
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,240
Speaker 1: not something she ever brought to the Labor party corps

651
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 1: and said I feel really strongly about this. You know,

652
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 1: if it comes to this, I'm going to cross the floor.

653
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: It was not as though Labour didn't give her an

654
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: option to vote for recognizing Palestine. It just came in

655
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: a motion that also recognized Israel. And of course before

656
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: and after this, she'd released multiple statements saying that she

657
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 1: opposed the party's position, that she would do what she

658
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 1: did again, it does seem to be a deliberate sort

659
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: of campaign of provocation, like you know, sack me from

660
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: the party, expel me, I dare you?

661
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: I think that's exactly right. And she didn't rate it

662
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 4: in the full caucus meeting all of the Labor members

663
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 4: of Parliament in the House of rep than the Senate.

664
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 4: And then there was the second meeting of all of

665
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 4: the Labor senators and she's sitting mute, not saying a word. Yeah,

666
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 4: so I lost respect for her over that.

667
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: So talk us through.

668
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 1: Some people have said, look, this binding caucus rule is anachronistic,

669
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: it's archaic, it has no place in the modern Labor Party.

670
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: What is your view? Do you think it is still important?

671
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 4: And why I'm in a minority in that I think

672
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 4: the British system has a lot to commend itself. And

673
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 4: in Britain they have Labor whips and Conservative whips, which

674
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 4: mean these other people who are supposed to whip everybody

675
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 4: into line. And there's a one line whip, a two

676
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: line whip, a three line whip. A one line whip

677
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: is if you're in the Parliament, can you vote this

678
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,479
Speaker 4: way please? But if you don't want no problem. Two

679
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 4: line whip is please turn up and give us an

680
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 4: excuse if you can't and you can't vote this way.

681
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 4: Three line whip, I want you to vote this way

682
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 4: no matter what. And I think there's a lot of

683
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 4: merit in that British system. I think this would have

684
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 4: been a three line whip. And most people in the

685
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: Labor Party make the point that the great reforming period

686
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 4: of Australia was under the hawk Keating government and if

687
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 4: we gave people a conscience vote on everything, we would

688
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 4: not have had the economic reform the trained to Australia

689
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 4: in the nineteen eighties and early ninety So that's a

690
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 4: good argument for the current system.

691
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 1: So it's not a traffic light system where there are

692
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 1: some issues that are top tier. Yes, you must hold

693
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: the line others, we really want you to, but if

694
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: you suddenly get sick or you have to abstain or

695
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 1: you're not present, okay. And then another one, which there

696
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: is provision for in the Labor Party. You can if

697
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: matters of conscience a conscience folk can apply to things

698
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: of religious faith sometimes.

699
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 4: Or summary sometimes of the point.

700
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: I love what you said about the whip. I was

701
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: just just going to bring up this line that someone

702
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: sent from a UK whip was in an article in

703
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: the Spectator last month, and the whip has this advice

704
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: for people.

705
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: Trying to maintain part of unity.

706
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: Single somebody out from among the troublemakers. It doesn't matter who.

707
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 1: It can be quite random, but preferably without an organized

708
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 1: gang of their own. Pick on something they've said or

709
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: done as your causes. BELLI cause for war again, anything

710
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 1: plausible will do. Then come down on them like a

711
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: ton of bricks, very publicly. MPs are pack animals. They'll

712
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 1: see the fate of their colleague and run the other way.

713
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: So go early, go hard, and don't leave your victim standing.

714
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 4: That's a great quote I might re originate that.

715
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: I said to the person who said it. That almost

716
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 2: brought a tear to my eye. It was so beautiful.

717
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 1: How do you see Obviously there's a lot of talk

718
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: about how the next election is going to go and why.

719
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: What do you see the impact of this new Muslim

720
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: vote movement being particularly in Southwest and Western Sydney. And

721
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: do you think the government is inevitably headed towards minority.

722
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 2: Look, I don't know.

723
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 4: I think the public don't want a minority government and

724
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: so that will play well for both the Liberal and

725
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 4: the Labor Party's the two party who could form a

726
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:50,959
Speaker 4: majority government. I don't think the Muslim vote organization will

727
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 4: succeed and they're getting a lot of noise and there's

728
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 4: been reference in the media about five mp in the

729
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 4: UK winning on the issue of Palastan and Gaza from

730
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 4: heavily Muslim electorates in the UK, they're much more heavily

731
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 4: Muslim than any of the seats in Western Sydney. The

732
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: most concentrated is Blacklin Paul keating form of seat. I

733
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 4: think ordinary people are who are Muslim background are like

734
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 4: everyone else. They want to get ahead. They count education,

735
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 4: Medicare is very important. Who's going to look after and

736
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 4: promote the interest of their kids. I don't think people

737
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 4: are going to narrowly vote just simply on this tissue,

738
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 4: and I think it disrespects the Muslim votes so called

739
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 4: because there are Pakistani, the people from the Lebanon, there

740
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 4: people for many different countries who were privileged to live

741
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 4: amongst as part of Muslim Australia.

742
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and of course there's the difference between Sunny and

743
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 1: she eyed Muslims and questions over whether she a Muslims

744
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: would vote for a Sunny candidate or vice versa. And

745
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 1: as you say, I think the highest proportion of Muslim

746
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 1: voters in any of these electorates ranges from about twenty

747
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 1: to about thirty or tick over thirty three percent, so

748
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: about a third at the upper end. So every single

749
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: one of those Muslim voters would have to vote for

750
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: that candidate, and even then you still wouldn't have a majority,

751
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: And so then you would be looking for preferences from home.

752
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: You can't imagine the liberals would be preferencing them. You

753
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: can't imagine they would preference the liberals over labor.

754
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:29,800
Speaker 4: So you know, because I agree, I think it's exaggerated,

755
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 4: but a lot of noise, and people are finding the

756
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 4: noith interesting.

757
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 1: Another thing I wanted to ask you about and again

758
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: it ties in very strongly with your biography of Chris

759
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: Watson because, above all, and I think this is really

760
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: important for the first Labor prime minister, he was a

761
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 1: quintessential pragmatist, as you say, he got along with other people.

762
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 1: He was not militant, he was not an ideologue. He

763
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: worked with people as much as he could. He made compromises,

764
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: He listened to opposing arguments we've seen. I suppose, in say,

765
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: for example, the latest newspot we saw where Labor is

766
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 1: losing votes among the middle classes and the middle and

767
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 1: middle aged people who are a middle class like me.

768
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 1: It's now behind in New South Wales and even more

769
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: behind in Queensland. Is Labor sufficiently targeting I suppose the

770
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: political center and I guess mainstream Australia and just sort

771
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 1: of mainstream Australia is sort of natural, sort of instincts enough,

772
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: do you think.

773
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 4: No, I don't. I think I think the government has

774
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 4: been pretty good. Certainly it's better than their preter, the government,

775
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 4: the Motan government. But I think they've they've not played

776
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 4: politics as well as they could have. They've been into

777
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 4: governing rather than politics. And I don't think alberaneathy wakes

778
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 4: up every day thinking how can I win the new

779
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 4: cycle this day? You don't feel that about this government,

780
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 4: and I think that's the right approach to govern for

781
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 4: the best interest of everyone. But I think the government

782
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 4: has been place and not getting a message across.

783
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: Is it fair to say, I think the Australian public

784
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: is not, generally speaking, ideologically minded. We seem, I think,

785
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: a very earthy, practical people, and we reward governments that

786
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: provide sort of practical, understandable, relatable and sort of hard

787
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: hip pocket solutions rather than big, sort of big picture things.

788
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 1: We tend not to reward what I think Paul Keating

789
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: called the vision thing, so the voice there was punishment

790
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 1: over that. I think there's in principal support for action

791
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: on climate change, but not at the expense of higher

792
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: bills or more unreliable power. And I think maybe those

793
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: two things, you know, I think perhaps a bit unfairly

794
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: because the government has done a lot of really good

795
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: practical stuff, but just sort of thinking about the voice,

796
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 1: thinking about climate change, people think we'll hang on? Are

797
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 1: they more concerned with these ideological pursuits than my kind

798
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 1: of desperation, my economic desperation.

799
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 2: In the here and now sensing that, or am I

800
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 2: just making.

801
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 4: That every government has to ensure the public feel that

802
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 4: they're on their site, that they're listening, that they're pragmatic

803
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 4: and they're making a difference to ordinary people's life. What's

804
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 4: interesting about John Christian Watson is that he was the

805
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 4: first labor prime minister in any country, So in nineteen

806
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 4: oh four Australia led the world and I think we

807
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,359
Speaker 4: can draw some lessons from that, which is why I'm

808
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 4: proud that the Prime Minister will launch the book.

809
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 2: That's fantastic.

810
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: And indeed, as I say, I love the PM and

811
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: I think he is as someone who's originally a creature

812
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 1: from the left, I think he is really pulling out

813
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 1: all stops to be more centrist, to place himself very

814
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: firmly at the center of the political spectrum. Finally, the

815
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 1: million dollar question, when do you think the election will

816
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: be called at this stage and what do you think?

817
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 1: And again they say it's always dangerous to make predictions

818
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 1: in politics, especially about the future, that where do you

819
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: think the election will be called?

820
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 2: And how do you think government's going to go?

821
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 4: I have no idea, but I know in the UK,

822
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 4: A lot of people have been arrested for betting on

823
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 4: the election date, and I don't want to be accused

824
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 4: of having any inside and knowledge. Just in kith I

825
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 4: flewke an accurate prediction, but I suspect it might be

826
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 4: at the end of this year or early next year

827
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 4: that my guests. I think, so long as Peter Duston

828
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 4: hold Queensland, he'd competitive, but I think he's not going

829
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 4: to win votes among the till seats. And I think

830
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 4: a lot of these policies are taking a gamble, such

831
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 4: as nuclear and so I think Labour's in a very

832
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 4: good position.

833
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: Michael Aeson labor Elder Statesman, big brain, extraordinaiy and now

834
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 1: author of In Search of John Christian Watson, Labour's first

835
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: Prime Minister. Fantastic book. Get it wherever you get your

836
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: books from. Thank you so much for joining us on

837
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 1: the real story.

838
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 4: Thank you, Joe.

839
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 1: And now to what is my favorite part of the show,

840
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 1: even though we've only had it for a couple of weeks,

841
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: and that is when I get your questions to me

842
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 1: and you ask them, I answer them. I pretend I'm right,

843
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 1: You pretend I'm right, and if you find out that

844
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. Just don't tell a soul anyway. Paul Jenkins

845
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: has gotten in touch. He says, love your work mate,

846
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: thank you very much, love yours. My question, can you

847
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 1: see a day in the future where labor and liberal

848
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,399
Speaker 1: bite the bullet and hand their preferences to each other

849
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 1: or are both way too scared to blink first? Paul,

850
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 1: that is an absolute cracker of a question. Is a

851
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: million dollar question. And again, if you look at what's

852
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: happening or what might be happening in western southwestern Sydney

853
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 1: with this Muslim vote group.

854
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:37,919
Speaker 2: What happens there?

855
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: I'm actually much more worried about a different local independent

856
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: candidate such as Frank Carbone, who's already signaled that he

857
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: might be running in one of those seats, you know,

858
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 1: coming in with all their sort of local grassroots support,

859
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 1: separate from religion or separate from a foreign conflict.

860
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 2: Now, what would happen there? In that case, of.

861
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 1: Course, the Liberals would all preference that independent, as they

862
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 1: did with die Lee who ran against Christine and Kannely

863
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: in Fouler. Again, another very very very safe labor seat

864
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 1: that fell like a house of cards, and that would

865
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 1: get someone like Frank carbon or another independent in his

866
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,760
Speaker 1: kind of sphere of influence over the line. What happens

867
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: with the Muslim vote, Well, you would have to be

868
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: pretty sure that they would not preference the Liberal Party

869
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: over the Labor Party, because the Liberal Party has an

870
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 1: even more pro Israel's stance than the Labor Party does.

871
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: It's been even more unequivocal, So it wouldn't make much

872
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: sense for them to send their preferences that way. And

873
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: the Liberals couldn't in good conscience preference the Muslim vote

874
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 1: over the Labor Party. Their base would absolutely hate that,

875
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 1: and of course it would be incredibly hypocritical given their

876
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: stance on the Israel Palestine conflict. So in that case,

877
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 1: you may well see a situation where liberal preferences could

878
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: go or at least liberal voter preferences, whether it's on

879
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: the how to vote card or not, but liberal preferences

880
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 1: could go to Labor before they go to a candidate

881
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: from this Muslim vote party. And again, there's been president

882
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 1: in the past where both major parties have put one

883
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: nation last, which is another way of saying that they're

884
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: preferencing each other rather than a common threat or a

885
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: party that's so extreme that it's unpalatable to any mainstream

886
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 1: party that has happened. And again I would like to

887
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: see and I think inevitably it will have to happen

888
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 1: where liberal and labor preference each other in seats where

889
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: labor is under threat from the Greens. And I believe

890
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 1: from memory that the Liberal preferences actually went to Adam

891
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 1: Bant in Melbourne the first time he won that seat,

892
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: and that's basically how he ended up in Parliament. And

893
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: I don't think the Liberals are pretty happy with that result,

894
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: although maybe they think that the Greens are such a

895
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 1: bad look for the left that they're quite happy for

896
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: them to go along, because certainly labor can never form

897
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 1: a coalition with them ever again, so in a way

898
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 1: they've kind of done it before, and in a way

899
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: it makes perfect sense if they are under threat. Say

900
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 1: they did a deal where the Lib's preference Labor in

901
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 1: seats where labor was under threat from the Greens, and

902
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 1: Labor preference Libs in seats where a moderate Liberal candidate

903
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 1: was under threat from the TiAl. So I can very

904
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 1: much see that happening. Whether it will happen or how

905
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 1: far off it is, it's hard to say, but there's

906
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: little shoots where it's kind of happened before, or where

907
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: it would make sense in both parties interests for that

908
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,439
Speaker 1: to happen. And in politics, as they say, always back

909
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 1: self interest because it's the only horse you know that's

910
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:48,320
Speaker 1: really trying. And that's all we have time for today.

911
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening to the real story.

912
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 1: If you love what you're here, leave a rating and

913
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: a review. If you hate what you're here, don't tell anybody.

914
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 1: If you want us to cover anything on the pod,

915
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 1: reach out. I love getting all your emails and your

916
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: messages via the Story at Nova Podcasts dot com dot

917
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 1: au or via my dms on ig. That's Instagram for

918
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: all you boomers out there. My handle is at Joe

919
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: Underscore Hildebrand. And if you want to hear more or

920
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: read more about what I think about anything, you can

921
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 1: check out my columns in The Daily Telegraph every Monday

922
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 1: and every Saturday.

923
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 2: You can't miss it. In the meantime, see you next week.