1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,600 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. 2 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,840 Sean Aylmer: The US strike on nuclear facilities in Iran over the 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:16,040 Sean Aylmer: weekend was a very significant escalation of the conflict in 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,400 Sean Aylmer: the Middle East. So what happens now and what does 5 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,680 Sean Aylmer: it mean for Australia when our own security pact with 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,040 Sean Aylmer: the US is under review. Michael Shoebridge is the founder 7 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:29,200 Sean Aylmer: and director of defense and security think tank Strategic Analysis Australia. 8 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,240 Sean Aylmer: He was previously the Director of Defense Strategy and National 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,040 Sean Aylmer: Security Program at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,760 Sean Aylmer: Prior to that, he held a senior role within Australia's 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,920 Sean Aylmer: intelligence agencies. Michael Shoebridge, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 12 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:43,680 Michael Shoebridge: Great to talk with you, Sean. 13 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,720 Sean Aylmer: Is the world a more dangerous place today than ar 14 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:48,240 Sean Aylmer: week ago? 15 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,879 Michael Shoebridge: No, but I think it's a more fragmented place. And 16 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:57,280 Michael Shoebridge: any idea that the rules based global order is still 17 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:03,040 Michael Shoebridge: in place and it's not more naked national power. I 18 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,240 Michael Shoebridge: think anyone that's still thinking that is making a mistake. 19 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,880 Michael Shoebridge: It's a world dominated by naked national power. 20 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,440 Sean Aylmer: Why did the US take this action? 21 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:20,040 Michael Shoebridge: Well, we've heard for decades now from various US presidents 22 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,880 Michael Shoebridge: and other world leaders that the Iranian regime having nuclear 23 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:30,080 Michael Shoebridge: weapons was unacceptable and unthinkable. But at the same time, 24 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,520 Michael Shoebridge: Iran has persisted in doing something that can only be 25 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,040 Michael Shoebridge: explained by wanting nuclear weapons. And it had got to 26 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:42,760 Michael Shoebridge: the point where the IAEA, shortly before the Israeli strikes 27 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,880 Michael Shoebridge: on it RUN, had said not only was the Run 28 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,400 Michael Shoebridge: in breach of all of its verification and monitoring obligations, 29 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:54,160 Michael Shoebridge: but it had enough and riched uranium for nine nuclear weapons. 30 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,960 Sean Aylmer: So it's easy to blame I'm not so sure that's 31 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,040 Sean Aylmer: the right word, but be of Donald Trump's actions. But 32 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,880 Sean Aylmer: he's done something which previous incumbents in that job didn't 33 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,120 Sean Aylmer: want to do. So, I mean, there's kind of a 34 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,080 Sean Aylmer: lot more to the story than saying, oh, Donald Trump's 35 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:14,360 Sean Aylmer: trigger happy. 36 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:19,320 Michael Shoebridge: Well, yes, and I think he was personally conflicted about 37 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,040 Michael Shoebridge: making this decision. We all know that the dumbest thing 38 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,120 Michael Shoebridge: to do is to pretend that anyone knows what Donald 39 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,240 Michael Shoebridge: Trump is going to decide. He told us in the 40 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,520 Michael Shoebridge: lead up to him making this decision. He may or 41 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,040 Michael Shoebridge: he may not do it. He doesn't know. Nobody knows, 42 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,840 Michael Shoebridge: and in fact, he would make he makes his final 43 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:44,440 Michael Shoebridge: decision in the last seconds, So I think this was 44 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,760 Michael Shoebridge: a decision that was a balanced one in his own mind. 45 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,720 Michael Shoebridge: Part of it would have been the Israelis have given 46 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,240 Michael Shoebridge: the Americans a unique opportunity to do these strikes against 47 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,800 Michael Shoebridge: Uranian nuclear facilities by destroying a lot of Iranian air defense. 48 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,920 Michael Shoebridge: And there was a conflict underway of which this is 49 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:04,640 Michael Shoebridge: now a part. 50 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,680 Sean Aylmer: So where does it go from here? What does Iran do? 51 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:08,240 Sean Aylmer: Do you think? 52 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:13,040 Michael Shoebridge: Well, Iran has some options about what they do. We've 53 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,040 Michael Shoebridge: heard fiery rhetoric coming out of the Iranian leadership, the 54 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,560 Michael Shoebridge: remaining Iranian leadership, about the terrible things they will do. 55 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,240 Michael Shoebridge: In fact, we heard about the terrible things they would 56 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,840 Michael Shoebridge: do to the Israelis and the Americans if these strikes happened. 57 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:35,760 Michael Shoebridge: But there's a real problem with Iran responding coherently and rapidly, 58 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,640 Michael Shoebridge: and that is they're in the middle of this conflict 59 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,400 Michael Shoebridge: with Israel, and Israel has hammered the Iranian leadership, particularly 60 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:48,760 Michael Shoebridge: the military leadership, and degraded the Iranian military capacity. So 61 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,240 Michael Shoebridge: that's why far fewer ballistic missiles are raining down on 62 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:59,400 Michael Shoebridge: Israel than Iran had planned. But given all that, and 63 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,280 Michael Shoebridge: even though who around Supreme leader is hiding out in 64 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,920 Michael Shoebridge: a bunker without any electronics, make it hard for him 65 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,640 Michael Shoebridge: to give orders and understand what's going on. Iran could 66 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,080 Michael Shoebridge: follow through on threats to attack US bases and military 67 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:17,680 Michael Shoebridge: personnel in the Middle East. They're about nineteen different American facilities, 68 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,599 Michael Shoebridge: including a big naval base in Bahrain and a big 69 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,960 Michael Shoebridge: air base and the UAE, so there are things they 70 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,200 Michael Shoebridge: can do. They could follow through on threats to damage 71 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:32,159 Michael Shoebridge: regional oil production and close the Straits of Hormuz, through 72 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,960 Michael Shoebridge: which about twenty percent of the world's energy passes every day. 73 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,719 Sean Aylmer: Do you think this is the beginning? I mean, notwithstanding 74 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:41,960 Sean Aylmer: everything you've just said, do you think this is the 75 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:46,839 Sean Aylmer: beginning of a long drawn out conflict or given the 76 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,119 Sean Aylmer: damage that's thready been done to Iran, do you think 77 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,279 Sean Aylmer: it'll come to a head sooner rather than later. 78 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,160 Michael Shoebridge: Well, I think people are making a mistake in not understanding. 79 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:02,159 Michael Shoebridge: This conflict between Israel and Iran that's now been joined 80 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:07,119 Michael Shoebridge: at least partly by America, began as an active war 81 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,920 Michael Shoebridge: with the Hamas attacks on the seventh of October twenty 82 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:16,480 Michael Shoebridge: twenty three. Because Hamas originally thought attacking Israel would bring 83 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:21,039 Michael Shoebridge: Iran and Iran's other powerful violent proxy, has Bolla in 84 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:26,719 Michael Shoebridge: Lebanon into the fight. That didn't happen, But Hamas did 85 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,000 Michael Shoebridge: what it did partly because it had been armed, trained 86 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,400 Michael Shoebridge: and equipped by Iran. And we've seen the Israelis dismantle 87 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,520 Michael Shoebridge: Hamas that are now that's now a fraction of itself 88 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,920 Michael Shoebridge: and operating out of the rubble of Gaza, dismantle has 89 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,760 Michael Shoebridge: Bola with Lebanon and has Bola saying they're going to 90 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:50,080 Michael Shoebridge: stay out of this fight, and now dismantling the Iranian 91 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:55,320 Michael Shoebridge: military capability and nuclear program itself. So it's a conflict 92 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,320 Michael Shoebridge: that's been going on since then. This is the next phase. 93 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,880 Michael Shoebridge: But I don't expect people talk about escalation. I cannot 94 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,880 Michael Shoebridge: see another Middle Eastern state that wants to join in 95 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,599 Michael Shoebridge: this war and that wants to side with Iran. They 96 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:11,640 Michael Shoebridge: wanted to go away. 97 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:18,440 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Michael, we'll be back in a minute. 98 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,080 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Michael Shubridge, founder and director 99 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:29,680 Sean Aylmer: of defense and security think tank Strategic Analysis Australia. Let's 100 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,839 Sean Aylmer: move away from the Middle East. Last week, Prime Minister 101 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,440 Sean Aylmer: Anthony Alberanezi was due to meet with the US President 102 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,960 Sean Aylmer: on the sidelines of the G seven didn't happen in hindsight, 103 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,599 Sean Aylmer: given what the president was working on at the time. 104 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,560 Sean Aylmer: Is that understandable. Is it unfortunate that we didn't know 105 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:45,200 Sean Aylmer: more about it? 106 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,760 Michael Shoebridge: Well, this is interesting. So we're now six months into 107 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:54,040 Michael Shoebridge: Trump's second term. Anthony Albnizi has been Australia's Prime Minister 108 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,880 Michael Shoebridge: that whole time, and he still hasn't managed to get 109 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,400 Michael Shoebridge: a face to face meeting with Donald Trump. It was 110 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,880 Michael Shoebridge: meant to happen, as you say, in the sidelines of 111 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:08,520 Michael Shoebridge: a bigger meeting, the G seven, but Trump flew out 112 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,840 Michael Shoebridge: of that meeting early to get back to Washington and 113 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,480 Michael Shoebridge: make the decision we've just been talking about. The real 114 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:19,000 Michael Shoebridge: problem here is mister Albinizi hasn't prioritized a meeting with 115 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,560 Michael Shoebridge: Donald Trump, and he's relied on catching up with him 116 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,680 Michael Shoebridge: in a side meeting at something else they're both going to. 117 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,160 Michael Shoebridge: In contrast, he's had three meetings since he became Prime 118 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,680 Michael Shoebridge: minister with China's Shijing Ping and last month he announced 119 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,640 Michael Shoebridge: he was flying to Beijing shortly to have yet another 120 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:42,559 Michael Shoebridge: face to face meeting with she. And that contrast isn't 121 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,360 Michael Shoebridge: just obvious here in Australia and in Beijing. It's obvious 122 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:50,560 Michael Shoebridge: in Washington because mister Albanesi has told us at nauseam 123 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,960 Michael Shoebridge: how important direct leader to leader meetings are when it 124 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,240 Michael Shoebridge: comes to China. He just seems to not make it 125 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,640 Michael Shoebridge: a priority with our major security partner, America. 126 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,840 Sean Aylmer: So what's that risky? Is August really at risk? 127 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,400 Michael Shoebridge: Well, yes it is. You know, I think there'll be 128 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,200 Michael Shoebridge: a lot of breathlessness about the Pentagon review, which is 129 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,559 Michael Shoebridge: a thirty day review apparently, although Trump has a history 130 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:17,320 Michael Shoebridge: of extending these timelines. But let's say that the Pentagon 131 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,720 Michael Shoebridge: doesn't recommend canceling orcus with this review, That's not the 132 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,840 Michael Shoebridge: end of the story. The bigger problem is Augus. This 133 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,920 Michael Shoebridge: nuclear submarine deal came about because America, the UK, and 134 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,040 Michael Shoebridge: Australia were agreed that we needed to do more to 135 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:39,680 Michael Shoebridge: deter China from engaging in conflict, and this corporation around 136 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,000 Michael Shoebridge: nuclear submarines was seen as a core way of doing that. 137 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,960 Michael Shoebridge: If Washington sees that our prime minister is more interested 138 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:52,080 Michael Shoebridge: in his relationship with Beijing than Washington, and adds to 139 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:56,480 Michael Shoebridge: that that the Albanese government is chronically under investing in 140 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:00,400 Michael Shoebridge: our own security, bumping along at two percent when America 141 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,559 Michael Shoebridge: wants it's NATO allies to be at three and a 142 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,040 Michael Shoebridge: half percent, and the same here in our part of 143 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:09,320 Michael Shoebridge: the world. Putting those two things together, the Americans could say, 144 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,000 Michael Shoebridge: Orcus isn't making sense because we don't have a shared 145 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:17,000 Michael Shoebridge: mission of deterring China with our Australian allies. Why then 146 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,280 Michael Shoebridge: should we give them submarines We don't have enough of themselves. 147 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,680 Michael Shoebridge: And that's something that will play out after this thirty 148 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,080 Michael Shoebridge: days of this short review. 149 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,280 Sean Aylmer: So how do you think Anthony Albinezi should play this. 150 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,520 Michael Shoebridge: I think he's got to work out in his own 151 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:36,560 Michael Shoebridge: mind what's important around Australia's security and how to manage 152 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:43,160 Michael Shoebridge: our economic dependence on China and our growing security dependence 153 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:47,680 Michael Shoebridge: on America, because while we're under investing in our own defense, 154 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:53,000 Michael Shoebridge: we're buying even more American weapons and systems. So we're 155 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:58,160 Michael Shoebridge: becoming less powerful but more dependent on American power just 156 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,480 Michael Shoebridge: when we look like we're less alive and with Washington. 157 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,000 Michael Shoebridge: The thing I think needs to happen in Canberra is 158 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,319 Michael Shoebridge: we need to adjust to the new world that we're in, 159 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:13,960 Michael Shoebridge: one of exertion of naked power, both by China and America, 160 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:18,840 Michael Shoebridge: and think about Israel and Russia and Ukraine. And the 161 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,720 Michael Shoebridge: simple answer for Australia is this is the wrong time 162 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,520 Michael Shoebridge: to be doubling down on our economic dependence on China, 163 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,520 Michael Shoebridge: right when we're doubling down on our security dependence on America. 164 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,640 Michael Shoebridge: Each of those things doesn't make sense by itself, but 165 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,120 Michael Shoebridge: put together look uniquely stupid. 166 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:44,080 Sean Aylmer: Okay, it's a very difficult line to walk though as 167 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:48,160 Sean Aylmer: a country like Australia. And I'm not criticizing or I'm 168 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,280 Sean Aylmer: neither fall nor against what the Prime Minister is doing. 169 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:55,600 Sean Aylmer: But whoever you are in a world where is naked aggression, 170 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,200 Sean Aylmer: it's kind of new rules. It must be very hard 171 00:10:58,200 --> 00:10:59,240 Sean Aylmer: to know exactly what to do. 172 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,920 Michael Shoebridge: Well. Step one is to realise the rules have changed 173 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,360 Michael Shoebridge: and not keep pining for the Fjords. So that would 174 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,880 Michael Shoebridge: be a good thing. And it's fairly obvious that the 175 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:12,320 Michael Shoebridge: rules have changed. That's why we've got two active wars, 176 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,320 Michael Shoebridge: one in Europe and one in the Middle East. So 177 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,679 Michael Shoebridge: realizing that things have changed is actually the job of governments. 178 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:25,680 Michael Shoebridge: And yes, this is a difficult environment for Australia, but 179 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,479 Michael Shoebridge: the Prime Minister and the Government have been telling Australians 180 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,760 Michael Shoebridge: that it's a difficult and dangerous environment for some time now, 181 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,800 Michael Shoebridge: their actions just haven't matched their words. And I'll say 182 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:41,480 Michael Shoebridge: one thing about this diversification from our growing economic dependence 183 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:47,559 Michael Shoebridge: on China, which is Australia is the most economically dependent 184 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,920 Michael Shoebridge: on China out of all the countries in the OECD. 185 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,280 Michael Shoebridge: So we don't really have to be anything other than 186 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,520 Michael Shoebridge: just not lazy to reduce that dependence. It's been possible 187 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,160 Michael Shoebridge: for all those other countries, and we should. If we 188 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,960 Michael Shoebridge: want to be more independent of America, we need to 189 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,280 Michael Shoebridge: invest in more in our own defense and we need 190 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:13,760 Michael Shoebridge: to wean ourselves off our almost entire dependence on American 191 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,360 Michael Shoebridge: technology and weapons, and that's possible. 192 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,439 Sean Aylmer: Michael, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 193 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:19,120 Michael Shoebridge: Thanks, Sean. 194 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,439 Sean Aylmer: That was Michael Shoebridge, founder and director of defense and 195 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,360 Sean Aylmer: security think tank Strategic Analysis Australia. This is a Fear 196 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,480 Sean Aylmer: and Greed business interview. Join us every morning for the 197 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,600 Sean Aylmer: full episode of Fear and Greed Business news you can use. 198 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,720 Sean Aylmer: I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.