1 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,879 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Michael Thompson. 2 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: This week the Federal Coalition fell apart in what appeared 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: to be fairly spectacular fashion, with the Liberals and Nationals 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: going their separate ways for only the third official time 5 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: in their eighty year history. So we wanted to take 6 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: a closer look at what drove Susan Lee and David 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: Little Proud and their respective parties apart, and whether anything 8 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: can bring them back together, or considering the slightly rocky 9 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,319 Speaker 1: relationship between the two parties in the past, whether this 10 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: whole thing could in fact be a storm in a teacup, 11 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: so to speak. Tom Switzer is executive director at the 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: Center for Independent Studies. Tom, Welcome to Fear and Greed. 13 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 2: Michael. Great to be with you. 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: What do you reckon? You wrote a piece in the 15 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: Financial Review which has really asked this question of whether 16 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: they will be getting back together and whether this is 17 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: in the context of a fairly rocky history, it might 18 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: just be just another in the road. 19 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: Well, the conventional wisdom, Michael is that this is a 20 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: debarkle for center right parties, and you mentioned it's very 21 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: rare for the coalition agreement to be ripped up by 22 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: one of the parties, and in this case it was 23 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 2: the National Party. But anyone who's studied the history of 24 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 2: the coalition going back a century would recognize that many 25 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 2: times throughout that period the center right Liberals or the 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 2: center right United Australia Party before that, and the center 27 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,839 Speaker 2: right Country Party and then it became the National Party, 28 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 2: they've also often had serious clashes, both personal and ideological, 29 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 2: and I think we should bear all that in mind 30 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: before getting too worked up about the significance of this 31 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 2: week's news. It's terrible news. I don't want to sugarcoat it. 32 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: There are real policy differences which we can talk about, 33 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 2: but anyone who has a sense of history should put 34 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 2: this week's events in a broad historical context and recognize 35 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: that both major both of these parties have an amazing 36 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: availability to apt and bounce back and then form coalition 37 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 2: and be serious contenders at future elections. 38 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: Before we get to the historical context, let's look at 39 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: what drove it this week. There were a number of 40 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: key policies that seem to play a role, net zero 41 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: nuclear power being probably two of the biggest. 42 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, look, I think what's happened with the Liberal 43 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: Party this election is quite clear they've really bled support 44 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: in the metropolitan electrics and I think all the available 45 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 2: public polling evidence indicates that younger people and women and 46 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 2: a lot of people who do live in what used 47 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 2: to be very safe Liberal seats are very enthusiastic about 48 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 2: decarbonizing the Australian economy at a rapid rate, very pro renewal. 49 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 2: But of course that attitude is at loggerheads with the 50 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 2: rural Regional Australias constituency, which is more skeptical of reaching 51 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: net zero targets and also being more open minded about 52 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: alternative sources of non carbon energy light nuclear, and that's 53 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 2: really the clash on that issue, both net zero and 54 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 2: but they also clash on the issue of the extent 55 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: to which government should break up supermarkets, insurance companies and whatnot. 56 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: Peter Dutton took to the last election the National Party 57 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 2: position on that issue, but that is very much at 58 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 2: odds with the free market ethos of the center right 59 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 2: Liberal Party and that's where they clashed as well. 60 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: Okay, was it a surprise to you then that it 61 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: would drive a split. I mean, because they are fairly 62 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: significant ideological differences there. But was it a surprise to 63 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: you that they did actually split over this and that 64 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: there wasn't more time perhaps given by the Nationals for 65 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: the Liberals to get their policy agenda in place. 66 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 2: Well Go went on ABC Regional New South Wales Radio 67 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: on this very subject late last week and I didn't 68 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 2: think that they would break up the coalition agreement. No, 69 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: I was surprised. But having said that, I don't think 70 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: it's the end of the coalition as we've known, and 71 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: I think that both parties probably need a time out anyway, 72 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: just to get their own policy apparatus into gear and 73 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: work out what they stand for. But I mean, does 74 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 2: anyone really think that when push turns to shove and 75 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: both of these parties, both the Liberals and the Nationals, 76 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 2: if arguments taken, it seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. 77 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 2: But if they managed to win enough seats to gain 78 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 2: a parliamentary majority, you think they wouldn't form government together. 79 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 2: I think they would. I think that's pretty evident and 80 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 2: that's why I think ultimately all this is to show 81 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 2: now there's a lot of turmoil instability. Both parties will 82 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 2: want to take a time out when the moment of 83 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 2: truth arrive. My sense is that they will unite and 84 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: form a coalition in the lead up to the next selection. 85 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: I want to get to that in a bit more 86 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: detail in a moment, but it might be a good 87 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: time actually to have a look at the fact that 88 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: they have had these disagreements in the past. And obviously 89 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 1: they were mentioned that there were three instances where there's 90 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: been a major separation, but there's actually been a lot 91 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: of minor issues, particularly save for the Howard years would 92 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: be a good example bit of disagreements over a gun 93 00:04:58,040 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: policy for instance. 94 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 2: Well, you may re in April nineteen ninety six we 95 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: had the Port Arthur massacre and that prompted then Howard government, 96 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 2: the government prime Minister John Howard, and I think that government, 97 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 2: by the way, had such a huge majority, won a 98 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 2: huge majority against Paul Keating's Labor government in March of 99 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 2: that year that they probably could have governed in their 100 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 2: own right, but he still kept the coalition with the Nationals, 101 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: and of course the Nationals represent regional rural Australia, and 102 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 2: so with the gun wars that was popular in the 103 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 2: metropolitan areas all across the country, but in many parts 104 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 2: of Regional Australia. There was a lot of angst, a 105 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 2: lot of National Party voters did not believe that they 106 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 2: should be punished having guns that are primarily used to 107 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 2: shoot wildlife and to their relevant show games and sports 108 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 2: games and whatnot. So you may recall Howard actually addressed 109 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 2: a constituency of National Party voters and he had security 110 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 2: guard outfit. 111 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: You remember that the bulletproof best. 112 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 2: Extraordinary And you can actually see there's a footage of him, 113 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 2: I think it was Brown April May ninety ninety six 114 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: when he's promoting the gun lawers and there's a wonderful 115 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 2: photo of him speaking to a bunch of angry farmers. 116 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: But you can actually see the vest yeah back and 117 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 2: that just demonstrates my point, I think. Yeah. 118 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: And so the parties didn't split on that occasion, So 119 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: there is capacity within the coalition for disagreement. Yet this time, 120 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: for whatever reason, it did split. 121 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, that gun laws is a good example. But they 122 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 2: also disagreed profoundly on the question of Telstra. Now, Telstra 123 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 2: used to be government owned like the Commonweth Bank and Quanas, 124 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 2: and in the course of the late eighties and throughout 125 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 2: the ninety nineties, labor governments under Bob Hawk and Pork 126 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: Keating and then the coalition governments of John Howard and 127 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: Peter Costello wanted to privatize a lot of these state entities. 128 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 2: But Telsha was a very controversial issue because a lot 129 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: of regional Australia felt that Telstra privatization would threaten their services, 130 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: and so there was a real break there between the 131 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 2: National Party leadership of Tim Fish Fisher and to a 132 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 2: lester extent, John Anderson and John Howard and Peter Costello, 133 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 2: and it becomes such a sensitive issue. And this, of 134 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 2: course is at the time when we saw the resurgent, 135 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 2: the emergence of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party. They wrongly 136 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: opposed all aspects of so called economic rational rationalism, competition policy, 137 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: dairy market deregulation, privatization and so on and so forth, 138 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 2: and the conservative wing of the National Party, essentially agrarian socialist, 139 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 2: almost was siding with Pauline Hanson's One Nation And to 140 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: the extent that those attitudes were strong in the National Party, 141 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 2: they were fundamentally incompatible with the Liberal Party ethos of 142 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: John Howard and Peter Costello. 143 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: Tom I'm going to take a quick break. When we 144 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: come back, I want to talk to you about what 145 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: the Liberals need to do now in order to start 146 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: appealing to some of those demographics that did abandon them 147 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: at the recent election, but also what it means for 148 00:07:53,720 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: labor as well. We'll be back in a moment. My 149 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: guest this morning is Tom Switzer from the Center for 150 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: Independent Studies. Before the break, we were talking largely about 151 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: some of those historical instances where the Liberals and the 152 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: Nationals have disagreed. Looking to the future. Now, what do 153 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: the Liberals need to do? You mentioned that this is 154 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: essentially a timeout that both parties kind of needed in 155 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: terms of the Libs and the Nats. What does Susan Lee, 156 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: as the new leader of the party need to do 157 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: during this time in order to establish the policy agenda 158 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: for the party, what the Liberals stand for, and how 159 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: much of that is now going to be geared towards 160 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: regaining the support of voters that they have lost. 161 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 2: I think there are probably two things from the Liberal 162 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: Party's perspective, because again, all the available evidence of these 163 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:52,719 Speaker 2: metropolitan areas, these erstwhile safe Liberal seats. You know your 164 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 2: gold stems, I know that's probably going to go back 165 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: to the Liberals. But your couyongs in Melbourne, your curtains 166 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:05,079 Speaker 2: in Perth, in Brisbane and Insygney, it's Ringa mckella and Wentworth. 167 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 2: You're not going. The Liberals are not going to win 168 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 2: back those seats by championing a so called cultural war agenda. 169 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 2: I don't think they need to distance themselves from things 170 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 2: like in opposition to the Voice to Parliament, but they 171 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 2: don't need to be making that a big issue. I 172 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,079 Speaker 2: think they need to focus more on trying to win 173 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 2: over younger people who've left the Liberal Party in droves. Women, 174 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 2: especially professional women, are turning off the Liberal Party and 175 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: I think one of the best ways of doing that 176 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 2: is championing a smaller government agenda, one that supports market 177 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,199 Speaker 2: economics and housing affordability. I think this is one of 178 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 2: the big issues for younger people. They're being priced out 179 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 2: of the housing market, and I think there's a great 180 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 2: opportunity for the Liberals to support more supply, more construction, 181 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: more development that has its own costs as well, because 182 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: there are a lot of constituencies in these Liberal areas 183 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: that are creatures of habit that don't want development because 184 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 2: they fear that that leads to congestion and more noise. 185 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 2: But the reality is only by having more supply will 186 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 2: you have a chance of reducing the prices for housing, 187 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 2: and that allows younger people to get into the market. Now, 188 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: there are some people in the Liberal Party who believe 189 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: in that agenda. I think that has to be really 190 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 2: their future if they want to win back a lot 191 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 2: of those metropolitan electrics. 192 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: The Gnats don't need to change they do they in 193 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 1: terms of it, because they have clearly still got the 194 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: support of their voters. And so really it is all 195 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: on the Liberal Party at this point in order to 196 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 1: evolve and to change. But if the Gnats don't change it, 197 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: it's hard to see how they do mesh together though 198 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: as a future coalition. 199 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 2: Well, that's a great question. I mean, we started with 200 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: net zero. That's a classic case in point. I mean, 201 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 2: just say, for arguments, say the Liberals and the Gnats 202 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 2: are back in Parliament in the next three to six 203 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 2: to nine years and they need to address this issue. 204 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 2: They're at loggerheads on that question. My own sense, Michael, 205 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: and this is a minority of view, is that I 206 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 2: do think that over time it will dawn on people 207 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: as it has Tony Blair the form of British Prime 208 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 2: that net zero is just unaffordable and unrealistic at least 209 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 2: by twenty fifty. I think there is an energy transition 210 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: taking place, but unless you have the technological breakthroughs, and 211 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 2: it's going to be very difficult to reach those targets 212 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 2: in such a relatively short period of time. So I 213 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 2: think ultimately the Nationals will be vindicated on that. But 214 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 2: the Liberals don't want to be talking that language now 215 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: because they'll alienate those people, those metropolitan electrics who are 216 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,439 Speaker 2: still very passionate about a renewables only policy. So that's 217 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: a real dilemma for the Liberal Party. It's not a 218 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 2: problem for the National Party, and I should stress the 219 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 2: Nationals aren't doing too badly electorally. They had a decent 220 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 2: election in twenty twenty two when Scott Morrison lost power 221 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: to Anthony Albernesian. This year, I think they lost one 222 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 2: seat and what'll be wrong about that. The Liberals, on 223 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,839 Speaker 2: the other hand, really went backwards, especially in those metropolitan areas. 224 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 2: So it's the Liberals who are in trouble. And from 225 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: David little Prowd's perspective, you can't blame the blood. He 226 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 2: doesn't want to be hand fisted and have his hands 227 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: tied behind his back by Liberal Party policy. He's got 228 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: to represent his constituencies and those two issues are new, 229 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 2: clear and yet zero are great issues on which to 230 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 2: deviate himself. But it will also allow Susan Lee to 231 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 2: adopt a more progressive centrist position that appeals to metropolitan electrics. 232 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: Now just quickly because we are out of time, but 233 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: as the big winner out of all of this, Labor 234 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: and Anthony Albernezi, particularly when you've got such a small 235 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: opposition party now in the Liberals, and really a situation 236 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: where we might end up having the crossbenches in terms 237 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: of the Teals, the Nationals, one Greens MP will actually 238 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: make up a larger percentage of Parliament than the actual 239 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: opposition the Liberals. 240 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: Look, I think what you're putting to me is the 241 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 2: conventional wisdom. But as a student of history, I just 242 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: be wary of making grand proclamations so soon after an election. 243 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 2: You have to remember circumstances in politics can change very 244 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 2: quickly and without warning. One of my favorite quotes is 245 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 2: Harold McMillan, the British Prime Minister in the mid to 246 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 2: late fifties, early sixties, and he said events, boy, events, 247 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 2: and that was that's how we described the unforeseeable triumphs 248 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 2: and disasters that alter party political fortunes. I think there's 249 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 2: a lot to be said for that. Remember, in December 250 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, Boris Johnson won a massive landslide election and 251 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: smashed Labour's Red War constituencies, working class constituencies in northern 252 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 2: England and the Midlands. And the overwhelming conventional wisdom in 253 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 2: Westminster was that Boris Johnson and the Tories would have two, 254 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 2: maybe three terms, more terms in government well within a term, 255 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 2: and three Tory Prime ministers. Later, the Tories were wiped 256 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 2: out by the Labor Party. Richard Nixon in nineteen seventy 257 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 2: two won sixty one percent of the vote. He won 258 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 2: forty nine out of fifty states in the US presidential election, 259 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 2: and yet without eighteen months he was turfed out of 260 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 2: parent disgrace and the Democrats, a little known peanut farmer 261 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 2: from Georgia won the nineteen seventy sixth election. I'll give 262 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 2: you one more example in these strain context John Howard, 263 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: I want a thumping victory over Mark Latham and the 264 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 2: Labor Party. In October two thousand and four, I was 265 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 2: working at The Australian. The conventional wisdom in the media 266 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 2: was that Label would have to spend two more terms 267 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 2: in opposition. Guess what a nerd from Nambo who dined 268 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 2: on his own you wax. 269 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: Kevin right along came Kevin O seven. 270 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 2: So circumstances can change quickly, Michael, yep, yep. 271 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: You never know what's just around the corner. Tom, thank 272 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: you for talking to Fear and Greed. 273 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: My pleasure, Michael. 274 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: That was Tom Switzer, executive director at the Center for 275 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: Independent Studies. This is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. 276 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode of Fear 277 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: and Greed daily business news for people who make their 278 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: own decisions. I'm Michael Thompson. Enjoy your day.