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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Good news on both the

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Speaker 1: retail and building fronts. Northern Star bids five billion dollars

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Speaker 1: for the country's best undeveloped gold miner, and no end

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Speaker 1: in sight for the Woolworth's warehouse workers who aren't stocking shelves.

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Speaker 1: Plus plenty going on in markets and police thought the

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Speaker 1: largest ever cocaine importation into Australia. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the third of December twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean the main story this morning. It's a big week

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Speaker 1: for the economy with economic growth figures out tomorrow, but

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Speaker 1: ahead of them, there's been figures showing a jump in

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Speaker 1: retail spending, a jump in building approvals, but a drop

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Speaker 1: in corporate profits.

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Speaker 2: Something for everyone. Retail sales were stronger than expected last month,

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Speaker 2: in part driven by early Black Friday promotions that helped

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Speaker 2: in particular electronic and recreational goods sales. What we're seeing

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Speaker 2: in retail in Australia, and this might reflect the cost

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Speaker 2: of living crisis somewhat is that there are big jumps

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Speaker 2: in revenue when there's a sales event that happened again

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Speaker 2: last month, but when there's not a big event, not

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Speaker 2: a big sales event, it seems to be weak. Makes

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Speaker 2: it very difficult for the statistician to work out what's

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Speaker 2: going on. There is plenty of population growth pushing through

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Speaker 2: that also helps retail sales. Obviously, there's also been tax

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Speaker 2: cuts this year. Consumer sentiments picking up as his household

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Speaker 2: disposable income, reflecting falling inflation. On the building side of

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Speaker 2: the economy, approvals jump for the second success of month

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Speaker 2: in October. Now, these numbers bounce around a lot. Last

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Speaker 2: month there was a big rise in apartments twenty three

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Speaker 2: twenty four percent. Detached housing building approvals actually went backwards

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Speaker 2: by about five percent, but overall building approvals are now

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Speaker 2: running about one seventy eight thousand dwelling per month. That

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Speaker 2: is well and truly off the lay of about one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty thousand dwellings per month, way behind the

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Speaker 2: government's run rate. It wants sort of two fifty two

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Speaker 2: sixty thousand per month, but at least we're off the bottom.

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Speaker 2: That's good news. Finally, corporate profit figures for September quarter

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Speaker 2: were released yesterday by the Bureau Statistics. They fell four

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Speaker 2: point six percent, much much worse than expected. That'll feed

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Speaker 2: into tomorrow's economic growth figures. As I said, basically, Michael,

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Speaker 2: something for everyone yesterday. In the world of economics.

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Speaker 1: It feels like you're pretty much just exploded with economic

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Speaker 1: data there so far. Can you explain what it means?

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Speaker 1: What does it mean for the economy, What does it

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Speaker 1: mean for inflation? And you know I'm going to ask this,

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Speaker 1: what's it mean for interest rates?

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Speaker 2: Okay, So increasing retail sales and building approvals at faced

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Speaker 2: value probably increase inflationary pressure. Having said that, most of

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Speaker 2: the data recently suggests that the oomph that's the technical

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Speaker 2: economic and the womph has come out of underlying inflation,

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Speaker 2: though perhaps not enough to get it back below three percent.

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Speaker 2: The economic growth figures tomorrow are forecast to pick up

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Speaker 2: to about half percent for the quarter. That's not particularly inflationary.

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Speaker 2: I mean, multiplied that by four, you get two percent

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Speaker 2: growth rate that we're running at that isn't particularly inflationary.

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Speaker 2: But just these retail sales figures, they're a bit uncomfortable

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Speaker 2: if you're really hoping to get inflation back down. I

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Speaker 2: think the bottom line, as we've been saying for a

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Speaker 2: few weeks now, rates won't fall until the middle of

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Speaker 2: next year at the earliest.

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Speaker 1: Feels like the more I learn from you doing this show,

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Speaker 1: the more it sounds like economics is full of exceptions

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Speaker 1: and things. Because as soon as you say to me

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Speaker 1: kind of this, this is what should be happening based

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Speaker 1: on the numbers, and nine times out of ten you

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Speaker 1: follow that up with having said that, yes and all,

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Speaker 1: there is something that flips it all on its ten.

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Speaker 2: Ah. Yes, that's a beautiful thing about economics. You're never

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Speaker 2: right and you're never wrong. Well, you never one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent right, You're never one hundred percent wrong. How about that?

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Speaker 1: Okay, I like that. I like that now, Sean. Moving

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Speaker 1: on from economics now, Australia's biggest gold mineer, Northern Star,

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Speaker 1: will buy smaller rival to Gray Mining for five billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: which is one of the highest prices ever paid for

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Speaker 1: an undeveloped project.

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Speaker 2: Gold price has been training at or near record levels

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Speaker 2: for a couple of months. That's pretty much on the

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Speaker 2: back of Donald Trump's ascension, So goal's a really safe

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Speaker 2: place to put your money in a Trump world with

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Speaker 2: geopoliticals uncertainty in South China, Sea, near US, Middle East Europe,

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Speaker 2: gold has found many many friends. We've also had central

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Speaker 2: banks buying up gold as opposed to the US dollars.

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Speaker 2: As a result, gold is trading at record highs. That

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Speaker 2: helps companies like Northern Star, which used to be our

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Speaker 2: second largest gold company until Newcrest was sold to Newmontet's

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Speaker 2: now our largest gold company. Its share price until yesterday

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Speaker 2: was up twenty five percent since early July. So you

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Speaker 2: talk about the Trump trade, goal's gone through the roof.

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Speaker 2: That's helped Northern Star. Now yesterday it ended down five

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Speaker 2: point six percent, but still it is a lot higher

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Speaker 2: than where it was. That gives it currency to buy.

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Speaker 2: It has done a deal to buy De Gray, which

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Speaker 2: owns a Hemi mine in Western Australia's Pilboro region. It's

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Speaker 2: considered the country's best undeveloped gold projects, apparently gold Project

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Speaker 2: Michael Singular. Apparently it's got eleven million ounces of gold.

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Speaker 2: Now that'll take decades to get out of the ground.

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Speaker 2: It needs one point three billion dollars to construct a

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Speaker 2: mind to get it going. The hope is that happens

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Speaker 2: in about twenty twenty seven, shareholders will get Northern Star stock.

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Speaker 2: The bid itself is about thirty seven percent higher than

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Speaker 2: De Gray's last closing price. The de Gray board has

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Speaker 2: unanimously recommended shareholders a vote for the bid, and its

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Speaker 2: share price jumped to twenty nine percent yesterday. An interesting

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Speaker 2: player on all this is gold Road Resources. It owns

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Speaker 2: seventeen percent of De Gray, one of the biggest shareholders

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Speaker 2: obviously in that company itself is a gold miner. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: what it decides is still a bit of the smoky

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Speaker 2: in all this. It could come on and say, yep, fine,

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Speaker 2: it could make a bit. I mean, who knows what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen there, or it could just wade out

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Speaker 2: and hope for a higher share offer. Anyway, the upshot

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Speaker 2: of all that is that Degray shares went through the

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Speaker 2: roof yesterday, agreed deal with Northern Star. Let's see what

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Speaker 2: happens next.

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Speaker 1: Good day, then for a couple of gold miners. How

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Speaker 1: about the rest of the market, How did the full

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Speaker 1: the comprehensive local boss go. I'm asking you to do

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Speaker 1: a lot. Now, summarize every single share that trades on

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Speaker 1: the ax.

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Speaker 2: Please sure right, no problems, Pretty quiet day, Michael. Leave

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Speaker 2: it at that. There we go. Summarized, the SMBASX two

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Speaker 2: hundred closed up slightly zero point one percent to four

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty five points. Big miners, retail stocks for

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Speaker 2: higher banks were mixed. Outperformers large caps Wistech Global and

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Speaker 2: West Farmers, but they are only up to the one

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Speaker 2: more bit over one percent. Goodman Group was an underperformer

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Speaker 2: across the market. You asked me for across the market.

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Speaker 2: I was just talking to large gaps. Tech stocks and

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Speaker 2: consumer discretionary businesses did best. Healthcare did worst. In corporate news,

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Speaker 2: Telstra said it had a quite a boost mobile for

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Speaker 2: an undisclosed sum and fund manager net Wealth said it's

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Speaker 2: funds under management has reached one hundred billion dollars. Congratulations

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Speaker 2: to net Wealth. It's been a stock that has been

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Speaker 2: flying up about ninety percent this year. Now having said that,

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Speaker 2: oh there, I'm saying it again, having said that its

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Speaker 2: share pace is up nine percent this year, though it

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Speaker 2: was sold off only five percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Sean, we talked about the big gold deal. There's

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Speaker 1: a few deals around at the moment. Interesting timing for

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Speaker 1: this interview that we've got coming up after the show

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Speaker 1: here speaking with Sandy Mack, who is the head of

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Speaker 1: corporate at Cause Chambers westcarth.

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Speaker 2: We talk all about M and A in the loke

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Speaker 2: Hall market. Why there's been a pie up, well, the

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Speaker 2: fact that there has been a pick up, the fact

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Speaker 2: that it's been at the sort of lower end of

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Speaker 2: the market that some of the cheaper organizations, and whether

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Speaker 2: it's been international or local bidders, the role of superannuation funds.

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Speaker 2: Super funds have had such an incredible place in our

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Speaker 2: market over the last five years or so. Sandy says,

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Speaker 2: it's still there, definitely, but they're just not quite as

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Speaker 2: active as perhaps some of the overc's buyers at the moment.

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Speaker 2: It's a great chat, Yeah, it is.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up after the show. We have got

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Speaker 1: a lot still to cover, Sean. We are talking about

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Speaker 1: the Woolworth strikes, a two hundred and seventy one million

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Speaker 1: dollars settlement with uber US President Joe Biden. Somewhat controversial decision,

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Speaker 1: so much to get through. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: There is still no end to the strike by Woolworth's

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Speaker 1: warehouse workers who walked off the job two weeks ago. God,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of W's in.

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Speaker 2: That centers and that alliteration at its finest.

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Speaker 1: Oh goodness, Woolworth's warehouse workers walking off the job two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago and it affected four distribution centers, which are

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Speaker 1: big operations, these things.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen hundred workers. They basically want improvements in safety, pay

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Speaker 2: and equity. They won an immediate pay increase of more

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Speaker 2: than twenty five percent and then fifteen percent in years

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Speaker 2: two and three. They're also upset about the retailer's new

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Speaker 2: performance management system, saying it's unreasonable. It's unreasonable pressure for

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Speaker 2: them to hit certain productivity targets. I think that seems

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Speaker 2: to be the point to end of this debate. What

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Speaker 2: it has meant is that Shells and Woolies have been understocked.

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Speaker 2: Not necessarily out of stock, but definitely understock. Three the

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Speaker 2: Senatory Victorian one in New South Wales, so the southern

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Speaker 2: state has been hit hardest. I don't know whether you've

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Speaker 2: noticed it, but I regularly shop at Woolies and there

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Speaker 2: are certain items which just aren't available. In fact, I

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Speaker 2: go further, My favorite tonic for the gin and tonic

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Speaker 2: on the weekend, all sorts of trouble. When did a

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Speaker 2: Woolies to buy it? And Jack, you know, I a

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Speaker 2: bit of a gin and tonic kind of people. When

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Speaker 2: you don't want to have a drink, and I mean

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Speaker 2: gin and tonic isn't really a drink, it's just like

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Speaker 2: end of the day stuff. So so it doesn't count.

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Speaker 1: So if you can still go to your doctor and say, no,

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Speaker 1: I only only have one drink on weekends, just you

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Speaker 1: don't count the gen and tonics through the week that's right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, it wasn't stocked.

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Speaker 1: There you go, which one was it?

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Speaker 2: Just out of interest, I'm going to say, such of

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Speaker 2: the knee, it's not eagle flower eedle very good, okay,

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Speaker 2: we will. I mean a very important time for Woolies,

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Speaker 2: of course, because you get that November December. About twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of supermarket sales occur in November December, and so

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Speaker 2: what a shocking time for warehouse workers to be on strike.

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Speaker 2: For Woolies that is, Oh is it the fever tree

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Speaker 2: elderflower tonic? Yes, that's it, the fever tree elderflower.

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Speaker 1: Fever tree is great. I've not tried the older flower. Okay,

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Speaker 1: there we go, we digress. We do not too far

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Speaker 1: shorn because we're going to stay. In the world of supermarkets.

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Speaker 1: We need to talk about Metca, which is the wholesalers

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Speaker 1: to the IgA supermarkets, has struggled to grow earnings in

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Speaker 1: the past six months, even on higher revenue.

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Speaker 2: It's half a result to the end of October was

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Speaker 2: better than expected. Its share price rows two point four percent,

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Speaker 2: but it still wasn't great. The group made a profit

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Speaker 2: of one hundred and forty two million dollars, though it

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Speaker 2: did cut its interim dividend. CEO Doug Jones said that

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Speaker 2: the IJA stores are holding market share. That's as shoppers

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Speaker 2: look beyond coals and woollies. Met Cash's portfolios include IgA

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Speaker 2: food Land and Richies, as well as Minor ten and

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Speaker 2: Total Tools. In the hardware area, they also have some

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Speaker 2: liquor stores. The supermarkets are actually held up pretty well.

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Speaker 2: The hardware stores have suffered, though sales in those that

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Speaker 2: are down nearly six percent.

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Speaker 1: A record number of Australians SEAN are struggling to pay

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Speaker 1: their energy bills, so, according to the market regulator.

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Speaker 2: Not good news. The Australian Energy Regulators said one point

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Speaker 2: nine percent of customers are now on hardship payment plans,

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Speaker 2: up from one point four percent. The average cost of debt, though,

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Speaker 2: is lower than it was twelve months earlier, that thanks

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Speaker 2: to the government's three hundred dollars rebate introduced on one July.

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Speaker 2: The regulator also said more people entering hardship payments are

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Speaker 2: doing it earlier. That's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is good now, I mentioned Uber earlier. More

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Speaker 1: than eight thousand taxi and higher car drivers are set

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Speaker 1: to claim a slice of a two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: one million dollar settlement with Uber. Obviously the rid Share group.

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Speaker 2: The Victorian Supreme Court approved a class action settlement. Now

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Speaker 2: Morris Blackburn will take thirty eight million of that tur

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Speaker 2: hundred seventy one million dollars litigation funder Harbor will take

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Speaker 2: eighty one million of the two hundred and seventy one

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Speaker 2: million dollars. That leads about one hundred and thirty two

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Speaker 2: million dollars for the drivers. The original case alleged the

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Speaker 2: introduction of Uber into the Australian transport landscape in twenty

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Speaker 2: eighteen caused significant disruption to taxi in car hire industries.

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Speaker 2: According to report in the Australian. The drivers claimed that

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Speaker 2: they suffered loss and damage by an alleged conspiracy by

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Speaker 2: unlaw for me means by the Uber companies. In the end,

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Speaker 2: the class the drivers accepted the payout yesterday. Not everyone

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Speaker 2: was happy with it, but they did take it. It's

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Speaker 2: the fifth largest class action recovery in Australian history.

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Speaker 1: Investment group GQG Partners share price tumbled fourteen percent yesterday

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Speaker 1: as questions continue about its investment in the Indian conglomerate Adani.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So, the immediate reason for selldown was UBS downgrading

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Speaker 2: the stock to neutrals to cut it and cut its

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Speaker 2: price target. GQG is an investment management company. It's that

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Speaker 2: actively invests in stocks. It's had a great run doubling

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Speaker 2: in price from late last year to early July. Star

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Speaker 2: of the market that type of stuff. Then A Dhani founder,

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Speaker 2: Gotham Adani was indicted by US prosecutors for an alleged

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty million US dollar bribery scheme. According

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Speaker 2: to media reports, GQG had a three billion dollar bet

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Speaker 2: on Adani. The in Dhani indictment sent GQG these shares tumbling.

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Speaker 2: They now lost about twenty five percent in less than

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Speaker 2: a month.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's huge now sewn. Sydney Harbor's Lunar Park is

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Speaker 1: back in local hands after pub and hotel company Oscars

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Speaker 1: Group bought it off Canadian giant Brookfield.

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Speaker 2: Apparently the plan is to have a series of new

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Speaker 2: Harveside restaurants and bars. Brookfield bought Lunar Park for multiplex

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Speaker 2: back in two thousand and seven, then put it up

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Speaker 2: for sale in June this year. The price wasn't disclosed,

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Speaker 2: but it's expected to be that fifty sixty seventy million

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Speaker 2: dollar mark. Doesn't sound like much for Luna Park, does it.

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Speaker 2: The problem with Lunar Park is that under new South

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Speaker 2: Wales law, the site must remain an amusement facility, so

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Speaker 2: you can't knock it down and build buildings. You've just

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Speaker 2: got to have those stupid noisy rides. You do need

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Speaker 2: means you need well rides, but you'll probably do e

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Speaker 2: tries and conference facilities and stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: Could you sound like you hate more? It's like, oh gosh,

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Speaker 1: not the Karras dang it. Anyways, go on.

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Speaker 2: Oscar's Group beat off others including Warner Brothers, Movie World

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Speaker 2: and dream World Sean.

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Speaker 1: The largest attempted importation of cocaine in Australia's history has

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Speaker 1: been thwarted by police who have charged more than a

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Speaker 1: dozen people over the billion dollar hall.

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Speaker 2: This thing was huge. Yeah, I mean not something would

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Speaker 2: normally come. It's just that this is so massive you

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Speaker 2: sort of have to mention it. Australian Federal Police charged

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Speaker 2: eleven men and two juveniles with conspiring to import two

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Speaker 2: point three four tons of cocaine into the country by sea.

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Speaker 2: According to AAP, it's alleged the men and crew of

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Speaker 2: a vessel attempted to import the drugs into Queensland, with

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Speaker 2: multiple groups planning to collect the cocaine on shore. The

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Speaker 2: men were arrested on Saturday following a collaborative effort by

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Speaker 2: the AFP and Queensland Police investigating a transnational organized crime

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Speaker 2: sending it. This amount of cocaine Michael allegedly attempted to

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Speaker 2: be imported is the same as a forward raptor ute.

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Speaker 1: Is that a new unit of measurement?

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Speaker 2: I think so. I think it's a metric unit, the

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Speaker 2: ford raptor ute.

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Speaker 1: It's also the size of a pretty decent sized hippo.

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Speaker 2: Is that right now?

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Speaker 1: I mean like, these are the different kind of units

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Speaker 1: of measures we can use now, a Ford raptor, a hippopotamus,

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Speaker 1: like whatever, whatever you understand, whatever makes more sense to you.

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Speaker 1: If you don't, if not a car person, you might

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Speaker 1: not really know what a ford raptor is.

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Speaker 2: No, you'd be more in the hippo category.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, indeed. Anyway, now we are certainly digressing. Can

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Speaker 1: we talk about international news Joe Biden, yes, the Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It stirred up a bit of controversy in the last

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Speaker 1: day or so. The outgoing US President has pardoned his

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Speaker 1: son Hunter for federal felony, gun and tax convictions. The

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Speaker 1: thing is that he to do so, he's actually reversed

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Speaker 1: previous promises to not use his powers to benefit his family.

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Speaker 2: In July, wasn't it he said very very forcefully that

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Speaker 2: he wouldn't intervene because this was justice and justice had

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Speaker 2: to be done. No more. I mean it does mean

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Speaker 2: Hunt of Biden will stay out of jail now. Hunter

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Speaker 2: Biden was convicted in two cases, one in California and

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Speaker 2: one in Delaware. He is awaiting his punishment, which will

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Speaker 2: never be handed down now, of course, it's under the

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Speaker 2: extraordinary powers of the president, he can pardon pretty much anyone,

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Speaker 2: including his son. The whole Hunter Biden story, I can't

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Speaker 2: quite I don't know what to think about it, because

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Speaker 2: I actually feel sorry for the guy. I mean, Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden has stood by his son very publicly as Hunter

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Speaker 2: fell into drug addiction. He's turned his life around political rivals,

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Speaker 2: though ever since Biden took the presidency has been all over,

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Speaker 2: have been all over Hunter, and I mean Joe Biden's

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Speaker 2: argument is that the charge of the political Hunter was

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Speaker 2: singled out. Therefore he's going to pardon him. Very difficult.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the poor blo. It's his son, and I

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Speaker 2: would hate to be in that position.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you do wonder what Donald Trump is going

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Speaker 1: to make of all of this though, especially what kind

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Speaker 1: of precedent does this set?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: We shall wait and see what happens post January. Now,

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Speaker 1: finally Sewan in international markets, there is a big OPEC

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Speaker 1: plus meeting later in the week.

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Speaker 2: Will they cut production? Oh? Won't they? Everyone's wondering. Oils

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Speaker 2: treading water a bit ahead of that. Bent is around

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Speaker 2: seventy two US dollars a barrel, goals back above twenty

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Speaker 2: six hundred US dollars an ounce. Copper prices, which are

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Speaker 2: considered a bell weather for the global economy, they've stabilized.

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Speaker 2: They lost about twenty percent in the past couple of months.

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Speaker 2: So in the last week or so it looks like

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Speaker 2: they've stabilized a bit, I and all staying above one

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Speaker 2: hundred US dollars a ton, and the Aussie dollar is

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Speaker 2: trading around sixty five US cents.

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Speaker 1: It would be particularly easy for oil to tread water,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't it, because oh I didn't even pick it up,

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Speaker 1: Yes obviously, yeah, yes, the relative density and all of that.

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Speaker 1: It kind of just sits on.

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Speaker 2: Top this on toime. Yeah, oh yeah, I like that. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, just thought i'd go out.

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Speaker 2: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Up next, Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Great one, particularly

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Speaker 1: considering we've been talking about deals today. Sandy Mack, head

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Speaker 1: of corporate at Cause Chambers westcarth all about m and

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Speaker 1: a activity. It's coming up in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is where you can sign up for

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Speaker 1: our newsletter. Out tomorrow and at midday today, there's a

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Speaker 1: new episode of Ask Fear and Greed where we answer

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Speaker 1: listener questions, great one for We are going to stump

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Speaker 1: you today, Sean. Yes, it's gonna be great fun. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, the third of December twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.