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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The Federal Liberal Party tries for a fresh start as

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Speaker 1: one nation looms. The anything but tech trade on wall

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Speaker 1: streets and elsewhere gathers momentum with the big tech companies

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Speaker 1: underperforming the market, and Macquarie Group is working on a

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Speaker 1: twelve billion dollar bid for Cube Logistics. Plus solar panels

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Speaker 1: produce too much energy, and Democrats tell European leaders that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump will be gone in three years. It is Monday,

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning, really, it's been a weekend of

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Speaker 1: Mayor Cooper's from the Federal Liberal Party. The new Liberal

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Speaker 1: leadership team of Angus Taylor and Jane Hume are looking

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Speaker 1: to basically sweep the cupboard clean of some old policies.

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Speaker 1: They've got a lot of work to do to rebuild

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Speaker 1: the coalition, and at the same time they're trying to

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Speaker 1: fend off one nation. And that's before they even get

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Speaker 1: around at fighting gun to fighting the government. These two

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Speaker 1: have their hands.

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Speaker 2: Full, they sure do. The two leaders are doing media rounds. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Angus Taylor said under his leadership, the Liberal Party would

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Speaker 2: contain inflation and taxes would be lower. He said standards

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Speaker 2: had been too low on immigration and the numbers too high.

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Speaker 2: He criticized Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi for not condemning those

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Speaker 2: who openly called for violence during protests last week. Taylor

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Speaker 2: said it was the party's job to convince Australians that

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Speaker 2: the Coalition is a better option than One Nation. Said

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Speaker 2: it a Hume. While she conceded that opposing previous tax

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Speaker 2: cuts and work from home arrangements was a mistake, she

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Speaker 2: said everybody makes mistakes. She also floated nuclear energy again.

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Speaker 2: She wouldn't be drawn on potential changes to tax breaks

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Speaker 2: such as the capital gains tax concession for property investors.

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Speaker 2: The first opinion polls since Taylor and Hume replaced Susan

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Speaker 2: Lee and Teedo Brian on Friday, while they're out, it

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Speaker 2: shows that One Nation and the Coalition both with twenty

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Speaker 2: three percent of the primary vote. That's the resolve political

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Speaker 2: poll in nine media. They polse do suggest though, that

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Speaker 2: voters are willing to give Taylor a chance.

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Speaker 1: I'd love to know what the polls say about your

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Speaker 1: chances of getting through this show, Sean.

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Speaker 2: I'm afraid I have got a LURGI yes, my voice

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Speaker 2: isn't what it should be. Goodness qualities all around.

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Speaker 1: We will battle through, well, you will battle through, and

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Speaker 1: I'll just continue doing what I normally do, which is

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Speaker 1: poking fun at you when the opportunity arises. Exactly while

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Speaker 1: the Liberals were sorting themselves out and fingers cross. This

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Speaker 1: is actually kind of the end of the infighting and

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Speaker 1: the naval gazing and the talking about the party. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: At the same time, the Albaneze government promised a three

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Speaker 1: point nine billion dollar down payment on a thirty billion

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Speaker 1: dollar plan to build a massive new nuclear submarine construction

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Speaker 1: yard in Adelaide. It is a very big project. It's

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Speaker 1: decades long and it's going to support an estimated four

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Speaker 1: thousand construction jobs on top of about five and a

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Speaker 1: half thousand ongoing positions building orchest class submarines. It'll run

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Speaker 1: in parallel to a twenty five billion dollar upgrade to

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Speaker 1: facilities at WA's Henderson Precinct, which will support nuclear submarine

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Speaker 1: maintenance works.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the Prime Minister aneth And Albernezi said The investment

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Speaker 2: would support national security and economic development, with a thousand

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Speaker 2: apprentices graduating every year from a new skills and training

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Speaker 2: academy at the site. Also yesterday, Trade Mister Don Farrell

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Speaker 2: said Australia is closer than it ever has been, at

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Speaker 2: least in more than two decades decigning a new free

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Speaker 2: trade deal with Europe. We've been chasing that for a

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Speaker 2: long long time. Never comes to fruition, mostly because of agriculture.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Sewan. The local share market nearly nearly hit a

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Speaker 1: new record last week, with a rising company earnings leading

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Speaker 1: the way. There was a sell off on Friday. Crystal Ball,

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Speaker 1: will the market hit a new peak this week?

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Speaker 2: If only I knew, Michael, If only I knew? The

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Speaker 2: banks led the way last week along with some of

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Speaker 2: the goal miners. Results strong and investors bought in, pushing

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Speaker 2: the market to just ten points shy of the all

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Speaker 2: time record on Thursday. In fact, last week the A

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Speaker 2: six two hundred jumped almost two and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: the best weekly gain in nine months. Notwithstanding it fell

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Speaker 2: nearly one and a half percent on Friday, so it

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Speaker 2: really did well in mos early sessions.

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Speaker 1: It could get there this week and much of that

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Speaker 1: will depend on how BHP and Rio Tinto perform. They're

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Speaker 1: reporting tomorrow and Thursday, respectively, and West Farmers also that's

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Speaker 1: reporting on Thursday, that will play a big role. Futures

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Speaker 1: trading suggest the market will open half a percent higher,

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Speaker 1: which would push the SMPA sext two hundred back beyond

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Speaker 1: nine thousand points.

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Speaker 2: So the question is at these levels is too high.

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Speaker 2: It's running out a forward price to earnings valuation of

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Speaker 2: nineteen point seven times according to AMP. Without getting too

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Speaker 2: technical on this one, that's expensive. Long term marriage is

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Speaker 2: fifteen times. This is nineen point seven times. That means

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Speaker 2: it's what thirty percent higher than the long term average.

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Speaker 2: That suggests there could be a bit of volatility, particularly

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Speaker 2: if earning season doesn't continue in a positive manner. Of

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Speaker 2: the same sort of manner as last week. About eighty

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Speaker 2: companies are due to report.

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Speaker 1: In the US Sean, the rotation out of tech stocks continues.

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Speaker 1: That is weighing down Wall Street that it feels like

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Speaker 1: there's a bit of an anything but tech vibe at

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Speaker 1: the moment in the US supermarkets, Energy companies and manufacturers

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Speaker 1: have done well, but not the magnificent seven tech stocks.

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Speaker 1: US equity funds focused on shares outside the tech sector

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Speaker 1: have attracted sixty two billion US dollars of inflows over

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Speaker 1: the past five weeks. That is that well and all

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Speaker 1: the eclipses the fifty billion US dollars that investors have

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Speaker 1: added to such funds in the whole of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: which is quite remarkable when you think five weeks compared

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Speaker 1: to the whole of an entire year. That's according to

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Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's incredible trade. At the moment. The

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Speaker 2: MAGS seven are down more than seven percent this year,

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Speaker 2: the NASDAK is off three percent, the SMP is about flat.

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Speaker 2: If you gave all the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 2: companies equal waiting, So what effectively you're doing outside the

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Speaker 2: MAG seven which are down seven percent, The rest of

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Speaker 2: the market's up nearly six percent. So it just shows

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Speaker 2: how people are off tech at the moment. It also

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Speaker 2: explains the underperformance of Wall Street versus the European, Chinese

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Speaker 2: and Australian stock markets this year.

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Speaker 1: So hot water, lemon, little bit of honey is the

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Speaker 1: bit of honey. Yeah, it's the old kind of the

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Speaker 1: radio announcer trick for soothing that sore throat. So we're

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Speaker 1: going to take a very quick break. You're going to

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Speaker 1: put that concoction together. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean Macquarie

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Speaker 1: Group is reportedly close to buying logistics player Cube that's

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Speaker 1: Cube with a Q for eleven point six billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: removing yet another infrastructure player from the boss. According to

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Speaker 1: the Financial Review, the deal from McQuary Asset Management set

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Speaker 1: to be announced possibly today. The buyers will be a

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Speaker 1: consortium including at least a McQuary Asset Management and Singapore's

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Speaker 1: sovereign wealth fund gic at unisuper in there too, Mercer Investments,

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Speaker 1: another superfund, and Emancio or Taga's family office. Or Taga

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Speaker 1: is the billionaire founder of the Zara fashion chain.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty cool, look details our scarce given it hasn't

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Speaker 2: been announced to the market, but it isn't good news

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Speaker 2: for investors who like putting their money into listed infrastructure

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Speaker 2: stocks with table with sable earnings.

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned this next one at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show at different times of the day. Solar panels

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Speaker 1: are actually too productive and they're flooding the national grid

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Speaker 1: with energy which threatens to actually trip the grid. Now

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Speaker 1: the Energy Regulator wants powers to switch off household rooftop panels.

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Speaker 1: Some state governments aren't happy. I just think, honestly that

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Speaker 1: it is amazing to think that we are getting too

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Speaker 1: much power now out of solar panels. But it certainly

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Speaker 1: seems to be the case at certain times of the day,

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Speaker 1: and just particularly prevalent in Queensland.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it happens in South Australia a lot too, but

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Speaker 2: the relationship between the Australian Energy Market Operator and the

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Speaker 2: South Australian Government is much better than the one between

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Speaker 2: the Queensland government and them. Basically, the operator says changes

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Speaker 2: are needed to manage the risk of a flood of

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Speaker 2: solar power on days when the sun shining but energy

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Speaker 2: use is low. The AMO, the Energy Market Operator has

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Speaker 2: limited ability to stop the flow of energy, and some

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Speaker 2: state governments don't want to give it any more. According

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Speaker 2: to the FINN, the.

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Speaker 1: Auction market SEAN continues to ramp up as we head

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Speaker 1: towards the autumn selling season. The preliminary clearance rate held

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Speaker 1: over higher than the seventy percent mark for the second

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Speaker 1: week running that was down a little bit on the

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Speaker 1: week before. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane all recorded the preliminary clearance

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Speaker 1: rates of just over seventy percent, while Adelaide came in

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Speaker 1: at seventy eight percent. Now, Sean, I know you are

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Speaker 1: particularly excited that tomorrow we will get minutes of the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank board meeting and there are you actually did look,

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Speaker 1: it did look a little bit excited, but that might

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Speaker 1: have just been the fact that you went at thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds just then without speaking speaking. It was a bit

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Speaker 1: of relief for the throat. There are a few indicators

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Speaker 1: that suggest households spending might not be as strong as

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Speaker 1: the Central Bank thinks.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so look, reading the economy isn't an easy task.

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Speaker 2: Over the past week, we've got data this ye, just

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Speaker 2: household spending came off the boil. In December, we saw

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Speaker 2: consuming conference dop at the end of the year. The

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Speaker 2: National Autradia Bank Business survey of last week didn't suggest

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Speaker 2: many inflationary pressures. With all this, the pressure the question

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Speaker 2: really is the Reserve Bank is the recent uptaking inflation temporary.

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Speaker 2: If it is, we might not get any more rate hikes.

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Speaker 2: If it's not, we probably will.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news, now, several Democratic politicians in

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Speaker 1: the US have rushed to assure European leaders that Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump will be gone in three years and that things

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Speaker 1: will get back to essentially kind of more normal times.

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Speaker 1: The Munich Security Summit was held over the weekend. It's

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Speaker 1: the annual high level forum that brings power players in

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Speaker 1: Europe and NATO everyone together. You might remember that we

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Speaker 1: talked about it a lot last year, Sean, because it

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Speaker 1: was the same one last year that Vice President JD.

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Speaker 1: Vance basically attacked Europe for their migration policies. It was

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Speaker 1: probably the first time that the US that that US

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Speaker 1: administration had really involved itself in the domestic politics of

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Speaker 1: other countries. And since then, I think it's just been

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Speaker 1: kind of the gloves.

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Speaker 2: Are off right.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio turned up this year.

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Speaker 1: He was a little bit politer, more polite than Vance,

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Speaker 1: though many of the speaking points they were pretty similar.

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Speaker 1: Much of the interest, though, was on other US policies,

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Speaker 1: and there was a stack of them from both sides

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Speaker 1: of politics.

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Speaker 2: The Democrats seem to get a much better run now.

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Speaker 2: California Governor Gavin Newsome, a potential presidential candidate, sort of

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Speaker 2: summed up the mood among the Democrats. I quote him,

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Speaker 2: except he said it in a much clearer voice. If

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Speaker 2: there's nothing else I can communicate today, Donald Trump is temporary.

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Speaker 2: He'll be gone in three years. The other really high

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Speaker 2: profile Democrat people want to see at the moment, Congresswoman

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Speaker 2: Alexandria A Cajio Cortez. She was there as well. Her quote,

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Speaker 2: it is of the utmost urgency that we get our

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Speaker 2: economic houses in order and deliver material gains for the

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Speaker 2: working class. Otherwise we will fall into a more isolated

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Speaker 2: world governed by authoritarians who also do not deliver to

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Speaker 2: working people. So both those politicians, democratic politicians, and perhaps

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Speaker 2: the two highest profile Democrats in the US, or at

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Speaker 2: least among the highest profile certainly were welcomed in Europe.

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Speaker 1: Sewn up next is Fear and Greed Q and A

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Speaker 1: with our resident economist, Stephen Coucoula's and never fear. I

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Speaker 1: am speaking speaking to Stephen. It is it is not you, yep, yep.

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Speaker 2: The relief.

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Speaker 1: And there's a lot to cover coming up in the

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Speaker 1: economy this week, from wages to the labor force figures

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Speaker 1: coming out later this week. Of course, the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: board minutes that you mentioned before from the meeting two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago where rates were increased a lot to discuss.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up next to the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is also where you sign up for

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Speaker 1: our free daily newsletter, which is in your inbox every

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Speaker 1: morning by six am. If you haven't signed up already,

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Speaker 1: I'll put a link in today's show notes and basically

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Speaker 1: if you want to kind of go back over any

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Speaker 1: of the points from today's show in a clearer fashion, just.

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Speaker 2: You better read than to listen to this.

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Speaker 1: I was trying to be delicate and diplomatic in the

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Speaker 1: way that I said it, But thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the sixteenth of February twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and that with Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.