1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: people of the Uran nation. 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to the Real Story with Joe hildeurand 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: guess who I am? Yes, that's right Joe Hilderrand and 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: this is the Real Story. And this week it's World 6 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 2: War three again. Sorry to break it to you, but 7 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 2: what a way to go out. Yes, the war between 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,319 Speaker 2: Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, so is it the 9 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: end of days? We're going to speak to our resident 10 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: Ukraine expert to find out. Also, it's World War three 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: inside the coalition again, so what is going on? We 12 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,279 Speaker 2: thought they'd kissed and made up after they'd broken up, 13 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 2: but now it appears that even after they've made up, 14 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: that someone has to break up otherwise they're not going 15 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: to make up. So we're going to get to the 16 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: bottom of that. Plus these ridiculously boring finicky tax on 17 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: unrealized capital gains and superannuation. If you're still awake, I'm 18 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: going to try to explain what's going on there too. 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: Don't go away. So first up this week, I want 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: to talk about just what the proverbial is going on 21 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: with the coalition. So we know that last time we 22 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: spoke that David Little Proud, the leader of the National Party, 23 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 2: had walked away from the Liberal Party because they couldn't 24 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: meet any of his four key demands, even though they 25 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: said they probably would meet his four key demands, but 26 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 2: because they couldn't actually meet those policy demands, because the 27 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 2: Liberal Party didn't actually know what its own policy was 28 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: in each of the areas that the NATS were demanding 29 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 2: commitments on. The NATS decided to walk away, except that 30 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 2: they didn't really And it turned out that all of 31 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: this could have been and was resolved by basically a 32 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 2: zoom call forty eight hours later when they talked about 33 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: the same demands and they couldn't even really agree on 34 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 2: what the demands were that they were fighting over, and 35 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: maybe we'll get to that later on. And now the 36 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 2: Liberal Party has agreed in principle to the demands of 37 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 2: the National Party, even though the Liberal Party still doesn't 38 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 2: really have any fixed policies in the areas that the 39 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: NATS are demanding, like things like net zero or nuclear 40 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: power or he's a really good one. Divestiture powers for 41 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 2: chemist warehouse. Yes, there's an argument over whether or not 42 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 2: divestiture powers that the government has over supermarkets to break 43 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 2: them up. If they're abusing their market share should be 44 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: applied to other big chain retailers like you know, Chemists, Warehouse, Bunnings, whatever. Seriously, 45 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 2: this is what the coalition is blowing itself up over, 46 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 2: but not anymore because they've kidstomata. It turns all these 47 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: things that were such high minded matters of principles, all 48 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: these things that David Little Proud felt that, like mel 49 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 2: Gibson in Braveheart, were worth being hung, drawn and courted 50 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: for freedom, turns out freedom was actually quite negotiable, and 51 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 2: they negotiated it and everything's just fine now. So again, 52 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 2: what was all that about. What was the point of it? 53 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,839 Speaker 2: Was it just to show, you know, hey, ma, look 54 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 2: what I can do when I drop a hand grenade 55 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: down the front of my pants. Huh, it's just Bonker's stuff. 56 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: So they've supposedly kissed and made up, even though the 57 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 2: talks are still kind of ongoing, but they can't even 58 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: they're now fighting over what it was they were actually 59 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 2: fighting over. So there were these four sort of policy 60 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 2: areas that the gnats were banging on about, which seemed 61 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: to be pretty fluid in and of themselves. But one 62 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: of the key things was whether or not the Nationals 63 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 2: in the shadow cabinet, so on the front bench, in 64 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 2: the core group of shadow ministers, whether they should be 65 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 2: able to break shadow cabinet solidarity, which is a very 66 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 2: sort of longstanding and important convention in which even though 67 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: Liberal or National backbenches can criticize or question or speak 68 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: out against or have different views on the official coalition 69 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 2: policy within the cabinet the leadership group, they thrash it 70 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: out in cabinet this is what we think about this, 71 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 2: and then that is the position that all those members, 72 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: from the leader to the Treasurer, Foreign Affairs spokesman whatever. 73 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: That is the message that they then sell to the public, 74 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 2: that they take to the public, so you don't have 75 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 2: ministers fighting with each other over what the actual policy 76 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 2: of the coalition is. And the Nats had said that 77 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 2: this was one of the things that they wanted. So 78 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 2: they think that the problem with all the division and 79 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 2: disunity within the coalition can be solved by ensuring there 80 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: can be more division and disunity within the coalition. So 81 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 2: that seems to be the National Core position. But wait, 82 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: as tim Shaw would say, there's more and so but 83 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 2: they had said that no that's okay. The Libs weren't 84 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,239 Speaker 2: really worried about that. That wasn't the sticking point. Apparently 85 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 2: the sticking point was all those divestiture laws about Chemis, 86 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 2: where the Libs have then said, no, no, actually that 87 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 2: was a sticking point. That is very much a sticking point. 88 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: We do not think that having shadow ministers, senior front 89 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 2: benches arguing with each other publicly about what the actual 90 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: coalition policy is or should be, we don't think that's 91 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,799 Speaker 2: a very good idea. We don't think that's really conducive 92 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 2: to you know, harmony and you know winning. And so 93 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 2: they can't even agree on what they disagree about. So 94 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 2: again I'm trying to set this out as simply as 95 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: possible so that you can get your head around it. 96 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 2: But this is how scrambled that coalition egg is. So 97 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 2: they are divided on whether or not they should be 98 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 2: allowed to be divided. That is that is where we 99 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 2: are right now. That is that is and that again, 100 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 2: that is not the divided position. This is not a 101 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: Kafka esque nightmare that you're having in listening to this. 102 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 2: This is the actual state of play. And now the 103 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 2: Libs are saying that after all of this, David Little 104 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 2: Proud has to go. He has to be removed as 105 00:06:53,560 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: National's leader. And that may be so, except that's not 106 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: really the Libs decision. They don't get to decide that 107 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: because it's a different party. In fact, they weren't even 108 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,119 Speaker 2: in your coalition for an exciting forty eight hours last week. 109 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 2: And now you've got Libs publicly, albeit anonymously, but publicly 110 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 2: saying I know that bloke's got to go. Little Proud's 111 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 2: got a pretty tight grip on the party room, it 112 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: would seem, even though he's massively embarrassed himself over the 113 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: last week or so. Matt Canavan challenged David Little Proud 114 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 2: for the leadership straight after the election got nowhere. Barnaby 115 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: Joyce took a long time to get to the leadership, 116 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 2: even though he was the face of the NATS. A 117 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 2: lot of the more you know, the Bunnia aristocracy, the 118 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: landed gentry, the agrarian socialists, a lot of them, you know, 119 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 2: thought that Barnaby was a bit too much of a 120 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 2: loose cannon and were uncomfortable with just how kind of 121 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 2: roguish and maverick and quite frankly downright fun he was. 122 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: And so they struggled to get that traction in there. 123 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: So the Nats of you know, they went with Barnaby 124 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: for a while and it was a wild ride that 125 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 2: they basically seem to like people who were slow and 126 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: steady and safe, which is something David Little Proud certainly 127 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 2: was not last week. But the last thing they're ever 128 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 2: going to do is what the Liberals tell them to. 129 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 2: I wanted to talk about what is probably the biggest, 130 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 2: most burning and also most boring issue in Australian politics 131 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 2: right now, and that is whether or not unrealized gains 132 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 2: should be taxed in your super anuation. So basically, the 133 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: policy of the government is that anything you have over 134 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 2: three million dollars no longer gets taxed at a concessional rate. Now, 135 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 2: the pre existing position was that you would have to 136 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: pay fifteen percent on unrealized gains that you had in 137 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 2: your super account over three million dollars. So if you 138 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 2: had three million and one dollar in your superannuation account 139 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: and it goes up to three million, one hundred thousand dollars, 140 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 2: you have to pay fifteen thousand dollars in tax because 141 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: you just made one hundred thousand dollars even though you 142 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 2: haven't taken that one hundred thousand dollars out of the 143 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 2: bank or out of the stock market or whatever the 144 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 2: hell it is right now. That was put in place 145 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 2: by the coalition. That was actually put in place by 146 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 2: the coalition government, but that is at the concessional rate, 147 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 2: which is half the normal rate. Now the Labor government 148 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 2: is saying that you shouldn't get a tax break for 149 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: amounts over three million dollars, which I kind of reckon 150 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 2: is fair enough, and that it should be thirty thousand 151 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: dollars like other capital gains. But these are unrealized gains, 152 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 2: so people are worried, and I think that is also 153 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 2: fair enough. That you know, farms, for example, So if 154 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: you've got a farm that is part of your self 155 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 2: managed super fun or whatever, and it goes up in 156 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: value even though it's still just the same old farm 157 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 2: and you're not going anywhere and you're working on it 158 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 2: and you're living in it, you still have to find 159 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 2: the money each year to pay for how much its 160 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 2: value is going up by, even though you're not receiving 161 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 2: any of that value until you pack up and leave 162 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: and liquidate the joint or whatever. So I think there 163 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: are sort of valid concerns there. Another concern that has 164 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 2: been raised is that politicians pension schemes won't be covered, 165 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: and the reason why that politicians. Some people are saying 166 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 2: that politicians won't be covered because their pension scheme is 167 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 2: what's called the defined benefit rather than an actual asset, 168 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 2: so the tax applies to assets and not some would 169 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 2: say to find benefits. Now, very seny, people in the 170 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 2: Labor Party tell me, people in the guvern say, this 171 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 2: is just bollocks, This is just not true. This is 172 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 2: you know, pollies will be covered, nothing to worry about. 173 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 2: But that doesn't matter because in politics, perception is reality. 174 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 2: I don't know how many times I've said it, and 175 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 2: I don't know how many times politicians need to hear it. 176 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 2: This is what a lot of people think. And I 177 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 2: know friends of mine who think that, oh my god, 178 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 2: the government's coming after you know, the family farm, or 179 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 2: you know money I don't even have yet. And so 180 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 2: it's something that needs to be addressed, even if you're 181 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 2: doing something fake to address a fake problem that has 182 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:45,319 Speaker 2: real consequences in politics, that could disarm the issue make 183 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: people feel better about it. Pretty zen huh, also pretty sensible. 184 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,959 Speaker 2: So as promo State's World War three again. Donald Trump 185 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 2: has taken to truth social to say that, Hey, me 186 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: and Putin used to be a great guy. We used 187 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: to hang out, we used to talk. Now he seems 188 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 2: a little bit off. You know. I think there's something 189 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 2: not quite right with the guy. Maybe he's a little 190 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 2: bit dare I say it crazy? And Putin's guys have 191 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 2: come back and said that Trump seems to be going 192 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: through some emotional turmoil himself. So will this little sort 193 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: of voyage through the inner wanderings of the human heart? 194 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 2: Will this result in a nuclear apocalypse? Well to answer 195 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 2: that question, we have our resident Ukraine expert on the show. 196 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Real Story, Mischa Zelinsky. How are you. 197 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: Good to be with you? 198 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: Joe? 199 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: Very uplifting. 200 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 2: That's right. 201 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,839 Speaker 1: I thought i'd doubt I'm feeling really good about it. 202 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 2: World War three, That's right. 203 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:42,839 Speaker 1: It would rather be. 204 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 2: Look, assuming that this actually makes it to air before 205 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 2: the nuclear holocaust. You obviously are an expert in Ukraine. 206 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 2: You spent a lot of time over there during the 207 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 2: war reporting on it. You've studied this very deeply. You're also, 208 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 2: I mean everything, a full bright schullie. You've got an 209 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 2: expert in international relations all this stuff. What do you 210 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 2: see going on here? Is there some kind of strategy 211 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 2: to the latest kind of you know, smashing together of 212 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in this sort of public 213 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 2: clash at the same time as you have an escalation 214 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: of the missile strikes from Russia against Ukraine, deep into Ukraine, 215 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: into the capital, and possibly even missile strikes going further 216 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 2: back the other way. Is it World War three? 217 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 3: Well not yet, but the clock is striking closer to midnight, 218 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 3: as it were jo. 219 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: It is troubling. 220 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 3: The truth of the matter is there is a strategy 221 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 3: going on. Is Ladimir Putin strategy and he's winning? Donald 222 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 3: Trump's strategy such as it is, I mean, he's not 223 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 3: a strategist. He's a tactician, correct things hour to hour, 224 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 3: and he doesn't think things through deeply. 225 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: It's hard. 226 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 3: What day we have Trump's persons in one hundred and 227 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 3: fifty one hunred and fifty million, I don't know. But 228 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 3: what we certainly know about Trump is that he promised 229 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 3: then this war today and he hasn't because it's complicated 230 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 3: and Vladimir Putin has not changed his objectives. So if 231 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 3: you actually follow through what's happened so far. The Ukrainians 232 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 3: have done everything asked of them. They've handed over minerals 233 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 3: that demanded quite outrageously by the trum administration. They've signed 234 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 3: on to that agreement, They've agreed to thirty day ceasefires. 235 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 3: Putin hasn't. They went to Turkey for peace talks, Zelenski 236 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 3: turned up, Putin didn't. 237 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: And all the while, while. 238 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 3: Trump has been blaming Ukraine for starting the war quite unbelievably, 239 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 3: saying that Vladimir Putin's a good guy, that we've got 240 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: to solve this, We've got to get to peace. Putin 241 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 3: has been escalating the military activity. So as we speak 242 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 3: right now, they're bombarding Ukrainian cities, civilian areas. The strikes 243 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 3: have been actually some of the most deadly since the 244 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 3: war began. So this doesn't sound like a regime ready 245 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 3: for peace. It sounds like a regime that is taking 246 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 3: advantage of the other side's weakness and stupidity strategically. And 247 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 3: so we've cut off for the Ukrainians from receiving the 248 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 3: aid that they need. They're not getting the help they 249 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 3: need on the battlefield, and every day Ukraine is losing 250 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 3: territory to Russia as they're pushing forward now very costly. 251 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 3: Putin is losing up to two thousand troops a day. 252 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 3: Even a country the size of Russia can't sustain that, 253 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 3: but Putin is trying to grab every bit of territory 254 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 3: in advantage you can, while Trump is essentially losing the 255 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 3: strategic and tactical battle. 256 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 2: So just to spell it out for people who might 257 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 2: not have been following it that closely, the eastern region 258 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 2: in Ukraine, which Putin wants as a kind of land 259 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 2: bridge to crime Mea, and there's a very large sort 260 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: of Russian speaking population there, and there's been a bit 261 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 2: of too and froing about oh is that maybe should 262 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,479 Speaker 2: that may be kind of maybe be a part of Russia. 263 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 2: What's changed recently is that there's been a record level 264 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: of bombardment deep into Ukraine, further west to the capital Kiev. 265 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 2: This is in despite, as you say, of a supposed 266 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 2: ceasefire that was meant to be in place. 267 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: Well, there's ever been a cease fire. 268 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: What the Russians have done, while the Ukrainers have tried 269 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 3: to get to peace and everyone has been encouraging peace talks, 270 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 3: has increased the level of military activity. So they've never 271 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: stopped bombing civilian areas now. 272 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 2: Than ever. 273 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 3: Right, so there is no prospect of peace as it 274 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 3: currently stands because Putin is his objectives have been very 275 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 3: clear from the outset. And if you look at what 276 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 3: the Russians are saying in their communications about peace, they're saying, 277 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 3: we still need to get rid of the root causes. 278 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 3: Now this is kind of all welly and speak. The 279 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 3: root cause of the conflict was Ukraine wanted to be independent. 280 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 3: So Ukraine would like to be independent, democratic, western leading 281 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: European nation, and Vladimir Putin says no, and so he's 282 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 3: noted that was in the end partially he and next 283 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,479 Speaker 3: Crimea in twenty fourteen, he started a civil war effectively 284 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 3: an invasion by another name in twenty fourteen and then 285 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 3: a full scale invasion twenty twenty two. Why because Ukraine 286 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 3: wants to dare to be independent, and so that is 287 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 3: the Invertkoma's root causes of this conflict. And until Ukraine 288 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: capitulates and the well capitulates, Putin's never going to be happy. So, hey, 289 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 3: you can have peace in that circumstance is very difficult 290 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 3: to imagine. 291 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 2: We could even say that the root cause is, you know, 292 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 2: in the ninth century when they're Vikings found Ross and 293 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: Russia's cosco would you believe that's right? And Russia's narrative 294 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: is that, well, the Russian state actually began in Kiev 295 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 2: in the ninth century, and this is why we have 296 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 2: to take it back. So they feel like this is, 297 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 2: you know, their toy that someone else stole from them. 298 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: And so fast forwarding to Trump, Trump is obviously in 299 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 2: as far as there has been a strategy or a tactic, 300 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 2: Trump seems to be engaging in this kind of madman diplomacy. 301 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 2: It's like, you know, you better do this or else, 302 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 2: and I'm so crazy i might actually do it. And 303 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 2: it seems that Putin has just kind of called his bluff. 304 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: Were you familiar with taco theory? Tell me, which is 305 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: Trump always chickens out. 306 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 3: And so this is actually a thematic that's come up 307 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 3: in the markets talking about tariffs. Whenever Trump says he's 308 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 3: going to do some crazy thing economically, the markets tend 309 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 3: to keep going up. Why because in the end, Trump 310 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 3: chickens out if you look at his tariff approach. In 311 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 3: the end, when D Day approaches, he extends it. 312 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,360 Speaker 1: He says, oh, we've got a deal, when there's really 313 00:17:58,400 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: not a deal. 314 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 3: He likes to announ steals, even if they're frankly bullshit, 315 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 3: that he likes just the concept of deals more than 316 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 3: actually And so the markets have worked this out and 317 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 3: they get, you know what, He's actually not going to 318 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 3: do any For all the talk, nothing's actually going to change. 319 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 3: And that's the same thing on the battlefield and diplomatically, 320 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 3: for all of Trump's huffing and puffing. If you go 321 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 3: back to his first presidency, you might remember he was 322 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 3: into this tough talk with the North Koreans. You know, 323 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 3: he's calling him Kim Jong Wung, little rocketman, that there'll 324 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 3: be fire and fury. 325 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 1: I'll do with this thing. 326 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 3: The next thing, he's in North Korea holding hands literally 327 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 3: holding hands with Kim Jong wung and saying what a 328 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 3: great man he is. In the exchange love letters. And 329 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 3: so in the end, these dictators have worked out that, 330 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 3: you know what, just keep pushing, keep taking what you want. 331 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: Trump is actually a coward. He fears conflict, He actually 332 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: fears war. He is a draft dodger. He is not 333 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: a tough guy. He's actually quite sort of in all. 334 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: For all his tough talk, he's cowardly in most of 335 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: the things that he does. He likes to pick the 336 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: right fights i e. 337 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 3: Where he's by father, dominant player, anything that's vaguely right sized. 338 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:02,880 Speaker 1: He's scared of involving him. 339 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 2: Which is a US trope generally anyway. I mean, the 340 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 2: United States famously, you know, only wins wars where it 341 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: vastly outnumbers the opposition. But getting back to Trump, So 342 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 2: what does so I mean is it has Putin figured 343 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 2: out that all you have to do with Trump is 344 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 2: just pretend that there's a deal, wave a bit of 345 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 2: paper in front of his face, or say a few words, 346 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: and as long as Trump thinks he can save face, 347 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 2: that's enough for him. But that kind of hasn't happened now, 348 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 2: has it. Because it's so obvious that Trump is being ignored. 349 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 2: He's almost being belittled by Button's people saying, well, you're 350 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 2: just emotionally Trump. 351 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 3: Trump clearly is getting frustrated because it's looking bad for him, 352 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 3: and he cares about optics more than he cares about 353 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,439 Speaker 3: anything else, and he cares about being a great deal maker, 354 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 3: so he's not getting this deal. The Russians are effectively 355 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 3: ignoring him, taking what they can now whether or not 356 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 3: they can't probably give them the rate of progress in the battlefield. 357 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 3: It's very unlikely that and about to capture all of Ukraine, 358 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 3: but they're trying to get as much as they can 359 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 3: till at some stage, perhaps, you know, the pressure gets 360 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 3: ramped up. Maybe maybe the Americans finally get it together 361 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 3: and start forcing more sanctions onto Russians. 362 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 2: Talked about that. I think what's different, isn't it? 363 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think that what's different about Trump talking about 364 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 3: tariffs is actually now seeing it coming out of the 365 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 3: Congressional Republicans. So the Congressional Republicans are now splitting with 366 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 3: Trump and saying we've got to do something about what 367 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 3: the Russians are doing. They actually started to find the 368 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 3: traditional Republican voice very peculiar that they've become so Putin 369 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 3: friendly as a party. But now they're starting to say, 370 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 3: hang on a second, this guy's embarrassing. You know, actually 371 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 3: turns out that he is an evil guy who loves 372 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 3: Joseph Stalin. I don't know if you saw this recently, 373 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 3: but get a sense of who the Russians are and who, 374 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 3: to me Putin is. They've just put back a massive 375 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 3: statue of Joseph Stalin into one of the Moscow metro stations, 376 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 3: which was put in there in the fifties, was removed 377 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,399 Speaker 3: in the sixties, and is now back in modern day Russia. 378 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 2: This is who this is, Putin's great hero. This is 379 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 2: no secret. 380 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 3: Likely worst Germans putting a statue of Hitler in a 381 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: Munich train station. It is madness and this but this 382 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 3: is who they are. They don't hide it. Like I 383 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 3: always say, you don't have to listen to me, you 384 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 3: have to listen to You should listen to Joe Hildebrand, 385 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 3: the real story, j Hilderbrand. Make sure you tune in everywhere, 386 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 3: but listen to what they are telling you. Vladimir Putin 387 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 3: is telling us all the time that the greatest geo 388 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 3: strategic defeat and the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century 389 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 3: was not World War One, not World War Two, not 390 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 3: the Spanish Flu, not every other tragedy. 391 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: It was the collapse of the Soviet Union, right, And this. 392 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 3: Is how he sees the world, and he wants to 393 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 3: re establish it, and he's trying every day to do that. 394 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 3: And the longer we ignore that, the more we're paying 395 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 3: into his hands. 396 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 2: And to get I love it. I love it when 397 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 2: you bring up the big historical stuff because fun fact, 398 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 2: by the way, there are no statues of Hitler. Hitler. 399 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: The one thing, Yeah, the one thing Hitler. Stalin obviously 400 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 2: loved to build giant monuments to himself and inspired Big 401 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 2: Brother or or Well's nine to eighty four. But Hitler 402 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 2: realized that statues. He didn't like that kind of iconography 403 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 2: interesting for whatever is. Yeah, and also Stalin was much 404 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 2: much crueler to his people around him. Yeah. So Dale 405 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 2: was always purging people. 406 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: Indeed, killed millions of Russians and. 407 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 2: Then and three million Ukraine, right and the Great Famine. 408 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 3: Right right, So the brutalizing person on his own people. 409 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 3: And this again, but that's how he sees his own people. 410 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 3: He's throwing literally thousands of men's lives away daily in 411 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 3: attacking parts of eastern Ukraine. 412 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 2: Exactly, And as you say, this is exactly what Stalin 413 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 2: did during Stalin grad did just again, he just threw 414 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 2: more and more Russias, Russians into the meat grinder and 415 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 2: he just and the Germans just kept killing them. It's 416 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 2: like one of those shitty little games that you see 417 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 2: on your phone where you're just mowing down. 418 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, those ads that there's a relentless seed. 419 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 2: And that's what Stalin was doing. And he would just 420 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 2: reach further and further back into Siberia or wherever it 421 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 2: was in any of the client states the Soviet Union, 422 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 2: and he would just shove them in there basically till 423 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 2: the Germans kind of ran out. 424 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 3: Famously, in the Battle staling Grad, they gave one person 425 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 3: the gun and the other person the AMMO and told. 426 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,159 Speaker 1: You to get the boots off the people that were 427 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: already dead. 428 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 2: So they also had the KGB behind the lines, Yeah, 429 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 2: shooting anybody who turned around. 430 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: And the Russians machine on their own, PA, show me 431 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: the incentive. I showed the behavior as they say, so that's. 432 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: Exactly corrective was pretty clear and to get this is 433 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: Putin's model war. 434 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 1: No, no, it is, and it's literally what they're replicating 435 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: right now. 436 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 3: That's the extraordinary thing about the conflict though, say that 437 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 3: there's two things going on. It's extraordinarily high tech. You've 438 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 3: seen the use of drone warfare. It's changed the battlefield 439 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 3: extraordinarily will be studying what's happened in this conflict for 440 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 3: a long time in terms of the use of technology, 441 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 3: but it's also unbelievably low tech. It is like World 442 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 3: War One style trench warfare, hand to hand combat, men 443 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 3: literally having to kill one another close range, and it's 444 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 3: awful stuff. And the level, the scale, the scale of 445 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 3: the death two thousand a day, close to a million Russians, 446 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 3: maybe half a million Ukrainians in a couple of years. 447 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 1: We haven't seen warfare like that' since World War Two. 448 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: It is extraordinary, the attrition on both nations, and it's 449 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: all because the one man's psychotic vanity and the inability 450 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: of other nations to stand up to it. 451 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 2: So on top of that kind of that grind, like 452 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 2: you say that just war of attrition, that meat grind, 453 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 2: a kind of you know, hand to hand straight to 454 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 2: street combat. In the east of the country, you've got 455 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 2: these missiles flying into Kiev in record numbers. Not the 456 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 2: first time the capital has been hit, but it's been 457 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 2: hit more than ever. 458 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: No, it's not far every night, which. 459 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 2: Is horrendous, devastating scene. So again Russia is escalating at 460 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 2: a time when. 461 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 3: And that's to terrorize the population. That's right, it's not 462 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 3: too military. There's going to be a military objective exactly. 463 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,959 Speaker 3: It is to terrorize Ukrainians that we can strike you 464 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 3: in your beds at night. Women and children been killed 465 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 3: every night, horrific Draine strikes. Now I've been then, I've 466 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 3: heard these drones strikes as they come in. It's this 467 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 3: screaming sound before an explosions, really awful and chilling. And 468 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 3: the whole idea is to give you sleepless nights, to 469 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 3: rattle your confidence, to give you a sense that you 470 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 3: can't win, and that in the end that you're going 471 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 3: to submit to Russia's terror. And so that is what 472 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 3: the Russian's doing every day. The Ukraine is now all 473 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 3: they're asking from us is for weapons. They're they're not 474 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 3: saying come fight with us. They'll say, we'll do the fighting, 475 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 3: We'll do the dying. Please allow us to be able 476 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 3: to do that. Give us the weapons that we need 477 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 3: to do that to hold the Russians at bay and 478 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 3: to drive them back. And that currently as it stands, 479 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 3: we are deprived of the Ukrainians of the things they 480 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,479 Speaker 3: need to fight for their own freedom. 481 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 1: It's really a shocking, shocking abrogation of what we should 482 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: be doing. And it's never going to be cheaper than 483 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: it is now. 484 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: In the end, we're going to have to resist Putin's 485 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 3: aggression at some stage. 486 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: Is a question becomes how big a scale that is. 487 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 3: Throughout the last twenty years, Putin's behavior has gotten worse 488 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 3: and worse and worse. Bad behavior has become worse behavior 489 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 3: because we've never punished it. And if we let Putin 490 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 3: get away with this, it won't just be a lesson 491 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,120 Speaker 3: that it's a green light for him and his objectives 492 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 3: of rebuilding and the Soviet Union, it'd be a green 493 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 3: light to every other dictator around them. 494 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: We'll tell you what is the lesson of World War Two. 495 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 3: It was not resisting bad behavior before it became worse behavior, 496 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 3: before it became a global conflict, right, and World War 497 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 3: two didn't just start World War two commands. It was 498 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 3: three regional conflicts. 499 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: It was. 500 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 3: Sorry the Italians evading Ethiopia. It was the Japanese invading China. 501 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 3: It was of course the aggression of the Germans into 502 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,400 Speaker 3: Czechoslovakian eventually the Poland all turning into one conflict. You're 503 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 3: seeing a similar thing now emerging. You've got the Russians 504 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 3: obviously invading Ukraine. You've got the North Koreans fighting alongside 505 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 3: Russians in Europe right now, madness. And you've got the 506 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 3: aggression of the Chinese all through East Asia, all through 507 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 3: the South Pacific, circumnavigating Australia. 508 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 1: And you've got Iran. 509 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 2: Familiar, right, and you've got Iran, which is a Russian. 510 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:52,120 Speaker 3: Ally indeed, destabilizing the Middle East and helping terrorist organizations 511 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 3: like the Hoodies and others. So it is a similar footprint. 512 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 3: Nothing is the same, and we shouldn't over land the 513 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 3: lessons of history. But I cond see one thing. Bad 514 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 3: behavior unpunished comes worse behavior. Putin and others are watching 515 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 3: what we'll do. 516 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 2: Next, exactly, and you look at Crimea and think, oh, 517 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,400 Speaker 2: if we just give him Crimea, you know, maybe it'll 518 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 2: be happy. 519 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: And Czechoslovakia to Hitler, did not stop that there either. 520 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 2: That's right. 521 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,719 Speaker 1: It's always another ask, and eventually a red line is crossed. 522 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 2: The old Eastern Roman Empire, you know, the barzanteens. You know, 523 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 2: I would just pay off the barbarians and they'll go away. Indeed, 524 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 2: So finally, one of the breakthroughs or whatever you might 525 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 2: want to call it, has been that the Germans are 526 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 2: now saying that they're going to lift the restrictions on 527 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 2: the range of the missiles that they're giving the Ukrainian 528 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,880 Speaker 2: So basically it used to be that they just had 529 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 2: sort of shorter range missiles so they could fight sort 530 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 2: of on their turf, on their frontiers. Now they're going 531 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 2: to give them the big boys that can go right 532 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 2: into Russia. How do you see this planet? Is this 533 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 2: going to provoke that, you know, global proproverct? 534 00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: Doing what worse? 535 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 3: Even more, that's the thing is again, right, What the 536 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 3: Russians do is play bluff poker. They hope to rattle 537 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 3: you into doing nothing. So they say, well, you wouldn't 538 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 3: want this to get any worse. Well, worse than murdering, 539 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 3: raping and torturing people in eastern Ukraine. It's hard to 540 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 3: imagine much worse behavior. 541 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 1: Now, clearly we don't want World War three to break out, 542 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: but wishing it away, he's not going to stop it. 543 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 3: So we've got bad choices and worst choices. The bad 544 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 3: choices is resisting putin. The worst choice is letting him win. 545 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 3: I think the purpose of allowing the Ukrainians to strike 546 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 3: in the Russia is not going to allow the Ukrainians 547 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 3: to conquer the Russians psychological Well, what it does is 548 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 3: it shows the Russians that this is not a consequence 549 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: free war. That why did Churchill bomb Berlin in nineteen forty, 550 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 3: even though there was no prospect of the British reclaiming. 551 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 3: You know, Europeans terrified just to show the Germans that 552 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 3: you can't sit comfortably at home while while we here 553 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 3: are attacked by you without consequence, and to show the 554 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 3: Russians that there will be consequences for your actions. 555 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: What Putin has tried to. 556 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 2: Do Churchill I called it terror. We want them to 557 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 2: be afraid, we want them. 558 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 3: Right, and so the Russians need to feel as unsafe 559 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 3: as the Ukrainians do, and to say that this is 560 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 3: not some war you can ignore. You can't just continue 561 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 3: to do your shopping in Saint Petersburg and Moscow while 562 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 3: other people. 563 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 1: Are dying west of view in Ukraine. That this is 564 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: a war that you, yourselves are responsible for. It's not 565 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: just Flatamir. 566 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 3: Putin, that your government is doing this in your name 567 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 3: and that the consequences are being brought home to them 568 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 3: as well. So that was why Ukraine sought to invade 569 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 3: parts of Russia, which they control for period they no 570 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 3: longer do, and that's why they started to attack military 571 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 3: targets and just to basically bring consequence onto the Russians themselves. Now, 572 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 3: there's other things we can do. We can up sanctions. 573 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 3: We can cut off Russia's supply chains around the world, 574 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 3: particularly the support they're getting from the Chinese, and we 575 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 3: can cut them off financially into stop them selling. 576 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: Oil and gas to other parts of the world. We 577 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: can do a lot to them. 578 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,239 Speaker 3: Russia's economy is extraordinarily weak. They're running fast out of 579 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 3: the supplies they need in terms of chips, but they're 580 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 3: circumsavigating a lot of the sanctions and we're turning a 581 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 3: blind eye. 582 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 2: So presumably, let's take at face value Donald Trump's psychological 583 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 2: assessment of Ladi a. Putin that he is crazy, he's 584 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 2: lost his mind, is a man on a mission. Nothing's 585 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 2: going to dissuade him from this. Presumably, if it was 586 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 2: going to, it would have done so by now. Is 587 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 2: the purpose of any sort of escalation into or further 588 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 2: reaching into Russian territory like we've discussed, is that to 589 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 2: get the leaders around Putin rattled enough or thinking that 590 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 2: the cost is escalating too much to bear, so that 591 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 2: they so that they topple him. Can he be removed 592 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 2: in turn? 593 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 1: I mean, he's look certainly possible. You never know. 594 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 3: The thing about regimes like Putin's Russia is that they 595 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 3: appear strong, but they're very britill they're not. And look, 596 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 3: don't forget Putin survived a nick who with a pregosion. 597 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: Yea in the middle of twenty twenty three. 598 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 2: I haven't seen that guy for a while. 599 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 1: Well, indeed, he fell out of a plane. 600 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 3: But it shows you that these things are febrile, and 601 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 3: you put a nation and a regime under enough pressure, 602 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 3: something might go pop. 603 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: Right, that's the theory. Russia is a nation enormously under pressure. 604 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: It's effectively turned to one big panic room by Vladimir. 605 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: They cut off from the world. 606 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 3: But at the moment a little bit of the pressure 607 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 3: is starting to come out because the sanctions are being evaded. 608 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 3: The consequences aren't as high, but look, they're losing two 609 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 3: thousand men a day. Putin can lie all he wants, 610 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 3: but the body bags are piling up, and people see 611 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 3: the brutal consequences on their own society of that conflict. 612 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: Then look if you see the polling, and you know, polling. 613 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 3: Russia is challenging, but surprisingly the support for the war 614 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 3: is not as high as you might think. 615 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: And so look, the choice we have is not great. 616 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 3: But the choices we have are increasing sanctions on the 617 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 3: Russians to build that pressure we talked about, and army 618 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 3: in the Ukrainians. 619 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 1: Pretty easy things for us to do. 620 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 3: It doesn't require us to spill a drop of blood. 621 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 3: It's just a tiny little bit of our cachets of 622 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 3: weapons and a little bit of minimizing of trade and 623 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 3: increasing us around the world. Very very easy to shelter 624 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 3: ourselves from. Yeah, what's the price of avoiding World War three? 625 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 3: Doesn't sound that high to me, But the price of 626 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 3: avoiding it later will get higher and higher and higher. 627 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 2: Unfortunately, missus Zelinski, very wise man, Ukrainian expert, fulbright scholar, 628 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 2: senior labor insider. Footy numbers matter like just everything, World President, 629 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 2: if you're in charge, if you're a commander in chief 630 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 2: of planet Earth, what a peaceful and loving place would 631 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 2: be with lots more of rugby league. Thanks so much 632 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 2: for joining your security mate. Thanks, and that is all 633 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 2: we have time for this week. If on the off 634 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 2: chance World War three hasn't broken out. I will see 635 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 2: you next week. In the meantime, you can get in 636 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 2: touch with us at the Real Story at Nova Podcasts 637 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 2: dot com dot au. You can hit me up on Instagram, 638 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 2: which is the only social media platform worthy of my 639 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: beautiful face. I'm at Joe Underscore Hildebrand. You can also 640 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 2: leave us a rating and a review or any of 641 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 2: the podcast things that young people do these days when 642 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 2: they're not out terrorizing folks with their skateboards and whatnot. 643 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 2: And of course you can read everything else I've got 644 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 2: to say in all the News court Masters, every Monday 645 00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 2: and Saturday till then farewell.