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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed, James Hardy bids fourteen billion

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Speaker 1: dollars for a US building products company and at share

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Speaker 1: price gets hammered. Tonight's federal budget set to hand out

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars for cost of living relief, health and housing.

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Speaker 1: And Disney's controversial version of Snow White hits the big screen.

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Speaker 1: Plus the phony election campaign accelerates, and plenty of corporate news.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the twenty

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Speaker 1: fifth of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson, and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning building supplies group James Hardy

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Speaker 1: will buy outdoor decking and railing company Azek in a

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Speaker 1: fourteen billion dollar cash and script deal and shift headquarters

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Speaker 1: off the asx onto. The New York Stock Exchange Chief.

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Speaker 2: Executive Aaron Erte, who's been running James Hardy for a

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Speaker 2: little over two years, said the combination of companies made sense.

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Speaker 2: In fact, he said, one plus one equals three. It doesn't.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that really illustrates the points He's

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Speaker 1: trying to make you no, I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: He says it's going to be a one stop shop

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Speaker 2: for building contractors and home renovators in the US, wall clanning,

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Speaker 2: and cement, fiberboard with outdoor living products. James Hardy generates

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Speaker 2: about seventy five percent of its four billion US dollars

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Speaker 2: an annual revenue from North America, so that perhaps it's

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Speaker 2: not that surprising that it ultimately will end up headquartered there.

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Speaker 2: Under the deal, AAZX shareholders will get about twenty six

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Speaker 2: percent of the new company. The primary listing of the

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Speaker 2: new group James Hardy and AASEAC will be on the

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Speaker 2: New York Stock Exchange secondary listing on the AX. Local

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Speaker 2: investors weren't exactly thrilled with James Hardy's share price tumbling

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent yesterday. The big concern is it's paying too

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Speaker 2: high a price at list in the short term for

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Speaker 2: the bus business.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a big whack. There does seem to

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Speaker 1: be a lot of deals in the building materials sector

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Speaker 1: at the moment.

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Speaker 2: It's quite incredible. A couple of years ago we talked

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Speaker 2: about infrastructure being the place where everyone was buying. Well,

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Speaker 2: I reckon the last twelve months, we can say building materials.

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Speaker 2: So we had CSR jiprock brickmaker bought by French Group

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Speaker 2: last year. Irish group CRH bought cemit maker Adbury. That

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Speaker 2: was last year. Borrel was acquired by Kerry Stakes's SGH Group,

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Speaker 2: So that's three companies leaving the AX last year. It's

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Speaker 2: also another example of a large listed company leaving the exchange,

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Speaker 2: or at least dropping its primary listing on the AX. Now.

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Speaker 2: That happened last year to Goldigger new Crest. Remember Newmont

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Speaker 2: bought that. You can now trade Newmont shares. It's a

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Speaker 2: secondary listing in Australia, but the main listing is in Canada.

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Speaker 2: In recent years we've also lost after Pay Sydney Airport.

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Speaker 2: There's currently being debated about Rio Tinto's dual listing structure,

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Speaker 2: whether it should actually be dual listed, which the company wants.

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Speaker 2: People want to bring it back to the AX, but

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Speaker 2: there's also a good argument to leave it on the

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Speaker 2: London Stock Exchange and take it off this exchange. Really

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Speaker 2: interesting how many of these. I mean, yesterday's deal is

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Speaker 2: fascinating in terms of the building materials sector itself, but

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Speaker 2: also what it means for the exchange when these big

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Speaker 2: companies leave.

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Speaker 1: That's a really interesting question that you put to Roger

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Speaker 1: Montgomery in today's interview. Coming up after the show, Roger,

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Speaker 1: of course from Montgomery Investment Management.

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Speaker 2: So we talk about, well not specifically about this deal,

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Speaker 2: though we mentioned it, but broadly we're saying, what happens

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Speaker 2: to the AX when it keeps losing these big companies.

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Speaker 2: And there's arguments that it's a good thing. There's arguments

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Speaker 2: that is a bad thing. But the bottom line with

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Speaker 2: Roger is he tells us how investors should think about it,

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Speaker 2: which is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: It sure is coming up after the show, so definitely

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Speaker 1: have a listened to that one. Sean very exciting day

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Speaker 1: for me, at least just because I love Budget night.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why I love watching the budget speech,

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Speaker 1: but it is. It is Budget day officially in Canberra.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably the exception to the rule because there's a

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Speaker 1: little less enthusiasm this year, simply because most people seem

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Speaker 1: more excited about the election that's coming up and maybe

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Speaker 1: even Donald Trump's tariffs.

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Speaker 2: We're true believers, Michael, you and I when you.

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Speaker 1: Agree, we are just very very dull individual.

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Speaker 2: Very very dull so what do we know? So one

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Speaker 2: point eight billion dollars to cut power bills. Everyone will

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Speaker 2: get seventy five dollars per quarter off at the end

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Speaker 2: of this year. An eight and a half billion dollar

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Speaker 2: promise to increase bulk billing incentives six hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: nine million dollars to reduce the cost of all scripts

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Speaker 2: from thirty one to fifty down to twenty five bucks.

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Speaker 2: I think that's what that one was. A two year

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Speaker 2: freeze in the exercise indexation increases on draft beer. There

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Speaker 2: you go in. Additionally, one hundred and fifty million dollars

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Speaker 2: over four years for housing. Almost all will be used

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Speaker 2: to increase income caps for the government's Helped to Buy scheme,

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Speaker 2: which allows participants to buy a property with a depositive

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Speaker 2: amount as low as two percent. There will be money

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Speaker 2: for roads in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales. Money

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Speaker 2: for defense, particularly around radars and long range of missiles,

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Speaker 2: though not huge amounts. Of course, this time tomorrow morning

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Speaker 2: we'll have it all for everyone.

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Speaker 1: We will, and we will be dissecting it in some detail. Sean.

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Speaker 1: There isn't an election campaign going on, at least not officially,

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Speaker 1: but you put all of this together, right, it certainly

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Speaker 1: feels like there.

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Speaker 2: Is Look once we get rid of this pesky budget

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Speaker 2: tonight and Opposition leader Peter Dunn's response on Thursday night,

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Speaker 2: then Anthony albineasy can call an election any day, normally

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Speaker 2: happens on a Sunday. Yesterday he said, well, when asked

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Speaker 2: specifically about it, he evaded. Basically said, you know, terms

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Speaker 2: should run the full three years, but that doesn't actually

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Speaker 2: answer the question when he's going to call the election. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the big announcement was a landmark agreement between the federal

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Speaker 2: government and Queensland over school funding. It means every public

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Speaker 2: school student across the nation will receive a fully funded education. Now.

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Speaker 2: Queensland has been the real holdout ever since Gonsku reforms

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Speaker 2: more than ten years ago. After months of back and forth,

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Speaker 2: federal government has agreed to a deal with that state

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Speaker 2: to lift the Comonwealth's contribution from twenty percent of the

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Speaker 2: Schooling Resource Standard, an estimate of how much public funding

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Speaker 2: a school needs, to about twenty five percent by twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty four. For its part, the Coalition yesterday said it

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Speaker 2: would return the budget to surplus if it wins government.

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Speaker 2: No details on that one change Hume, the finance spokesperson

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Speaker 2: for the coalition. She said, if elected, they'll restore fiscal guardrails.

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Speaker 1: That's a good way to put it.

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Speaker 2: What makes it boring? Don't you reckon restored? I know guardrails.

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Speaker 1: I think we've already established that you and I are

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Speaker 1: boring individuals, so that kind of really appeals to us.

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Speaker 2: I think you're more boring than me. I've just that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's a self assessment, Sean. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can do that. Before we leave politics. Just one

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Speaker 1: last story, and this is not boring at all. Independent

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Speaker 1: and highly popular Teal MP Monique Ryan is in a

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Speaker 1: little bit of hot water after video emerged of her

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Speaker 1: husband Peter Jordan, removing campaign posters for her Liberal opponent,

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Speaker 1: Amerelia Hamer.

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Speaker 2: I think this is hilarious. So, Minique Ryan holds a

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Speaker 2: Melbourne seat of Kyong, once a blue ribbon liberal seat.

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Speaker 2: Josh Friedenberg held it until Ryan beat him in the

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Speaker 2: last election. Have you seen the video which shows Jordan

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Speaker 2: running down the street with a poster under his arm, Hilary,

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Speaker 2: He and Ryan have apologized, but I loved Jordan's comment,

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Speaker 2: so in a statement and I quote. I believe the

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Speaker 2: sign was illegally placed, but I should have reported my

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Speaker 2: concerns to counsel.

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Speaker 1: You think, really, it is a great story.

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Speaker 2: It is a great story.

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen the video. Definitely checked that one out.

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Speaker 1: Sean much more still to come. We'll be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sewn.

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Speaker 1: The local share market closed flight yesterday after tumbling early,

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Speaker 1: then spending the rest of the day making.

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Speaker 2: Up ground well thanks considered pre budget tariff confusion, the

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Speaker 2: big James Hardy announcement. Pretty good day really. The market

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Speaker 2: finished at thirty nine points. Good day, but a bit

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Speaker 2: of an odd day. So you had consumer discretionary stocks

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Speaker 2: and financials doing really well and pretty much everyone else didn't.

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Speaker 2: NAB and Westpac were both up around two percent. Commwealth

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Speaker 2: Bank finished up one and a half percent. A few

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Speaker 2: other odds and bods We's Farmer's, Risocrat Leisure for the

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Speaker 2: skin metals group, they did well. Not that they'd like

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Speaker 2: to be called odds and bods, I suppose, but they

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Speaker 2: did well. Not so good big retailers, Wooley's Coal, Sigma Healthcare,

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Speaker 2: which of course is a big farmer Sam Yes, Transurban

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Speaker 2: didn't do very well. Why global that did poorly as well?

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Speaker 1: What about international markets? Just the numbers, goals?

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Speaker 2: Training at three and twenty two US dolls announced Brench

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Speaker 2: crews around seventy two US dollars a barrel, bitcoins around

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Speaker 2: eighty five thousand US dollars unit, and iron ore. Which

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Speaker 2: is the time of year, we get very interested in

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Speaker 2: iron ore one hundred US dollars a ton. And Michael,

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Speaker 2: why do we get so interested? You answer the question.

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Speaker 1: We do get interested about iron ore at this time

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Speaker 1: because it is budget time and we've got a great

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Speaker 1: fear and greed and ask fear and greed question that

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Speaker 1: is coming up today at midday where we delve into

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Speaker 1: that very topic.

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Speaker 2: Right exactly, so we look at the pluses and minuses

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Speaker 2: from the budget and why things like unemployment rates and

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Speaker 2: the price of iron ore matter so much to the

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Speaker 2: budget bottom line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's coming up at midday. Keep and I

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Speaker 1: out an ear out. I suppose it's an ear out,

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Speaker 1: isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: There's an era for that one at midday. Mortgage insurer

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Speaker 1: Herelia's share price tumbled twenty six percent yesterday after warning

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Speaker 1: investors that its current contract with Commonwealth Bank may not

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Speaker 1: run beyond December thirty one, as the banking giant commences

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Speaker 1: negotiations with an alternative mortgage insurer, a.

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Speaker 2: Very cautionarytail, this one. It would be a massive loss

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Speaker 2: to Helia, given CBA is the country's largest home lender

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Speaker 2: and supplies about fifty three percent of Helia's business. Commonwealth

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Speaker 2: Bank has told Helia that it is in negotiations with

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Speaker 2: another mortgage insurer. Clearly Helia has been too reliant on

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Speaker 2: one provider. Obviously, Commonwealth Bank is a fantastic customer to have,

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Speaker 2: but wow, didn't get Hammond yesterday when it came out

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Speaker 2: that it may well lose its number one customer.

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Speaker 1: At Mineral Resources, share price jumped seven percent yesterday after

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Speaker 1: reopening its Onslow Iron Hall Road it was closed after

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Speaker 1: a sixth truck crash on the roadway. We've been talking

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Speaker 1: a bit about this, Sean. This is quite stary.

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Speaker 2: This is getting close to one of my favorite stories

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Speaker 2: so far this year. No, it's not good for Mineral Resources,

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Speaker 2: but the size of these trucks, these triple laid trucks

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Speaker 2: carrying iron, all three hundred and thirty tons of iron

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Speaker 2: or on each truck. Problem is they keep crashing now.

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Speaker 2: Minrez has said it will spend tens of millions of

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Speaker 2: dollars upgrading the track, which goes to its three billion

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Speaker 2: dollar on slow project. Good news yesterday and the share

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Speaker 2: price jumps seven percent, but Minres's share price is down

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Speaker 2: sixty five percent last year. It has been a shocker.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn to international news now, Sean, because we've got

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Speaker 1: a few stories we need to get through. New Canadian

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for

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Speaker 1: April twenty eight, saying that he needs a strong mandate

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Speaker 1: to deal with the threat posed by US President Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: who quote wants to break US so America can own us.

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Speaker 1: This is not uncommon, is it for a political leader

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Speaker 1: to use an external threat as a way of rallying support?

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Speaker 1: Very unusual for that threat to come from the US

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Speaker 1: to Canada.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. Although the next election is not due until

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Speaker 2: October twenty, Karney's hoping to capitalize on a fairly remarkable

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Speaker 2: recovery by his Liberal party in the polls since January,

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Speaker 2: when Trump again threatening Canada and former Prime Minister Justin

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Speaker 2: Todau announced his resignation upon being sworn in as Prime minister.

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Speaker 2: On March fourteen, Carney said he could have a good

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Speaker 2: relationship with Trump. He said he respected Donald Trump. He's

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Speaker 2: changed his mind, I quote. We are facing the most

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Speaker 2: significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified

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Speaker 2: trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty. Our response

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Speaker 2: must be to build a strong economy and a more

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Speaker 2: secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country.

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Speaker 2: He wants to break us so America can own us.

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Speaker 2: We will not let that happen.

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Speaker 1: It is just a gift for a can campaign, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: I'm standing up now. I'm a proud Canadian. I mean

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Speaker 2: that they are fighting words.

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Speaker 1: They certainly are from Canadians well. The Trump Administration's coming

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Speaker 1: wave of tariffs, which we know is happening early next month,

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Speaker 1: likely to be more targeted than initially threatened, with the

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Speaker 1: focus being on retribution for countries with a trade surplus

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Speaker 1: with the US.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is preparing Liberation Day tariff announcements on April two.

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Speaker 2: While the announcements will be a very significant expansion of

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Speaker 2: US tariffs, it's shaping as probably more focused than Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump has mused. According to Bloomberg, he'll announced widespread reciprocal

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Speaker 2: tariffs on nations or blocks. I think the EU, but

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Speaker 2: is set to exclude some well as of now some areas,

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Speaker 2: and the administration isn't planning separate sector specific tariffs like

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Speaker 2: the aluminium tariffs for example, not going to do more

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Speaker 2: of those. Still, Trump is looking for immediate impact on

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Speaker 2: the announcement. He is likely to say that the new

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Speaker 2: tariffs will take effect right away. Only countries that don't

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Speaker 2: have tariffs in the US and with whom the US

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Speaker 2: has a trade surplus will not be tariffed under the

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Speaker 2: reciprocal plan, according to an official, not quite sure where

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Speaker 2: Australia sits in next. We have a trade deficit with

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Speaker 2: the US, it has a trade surplus with US. Tick.

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Speaker 2: Not sure whether the GST fits in excising customs duty fixing.

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Speaker 2: I have to wait and see.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah. There's a lot of suspense then leading

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Speaker 1: up to April too. Sure is sounds like more uncertainty

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Speaker 1: for markets, Sean.

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Speaker 2: I'd say, sir, yes, Mike.

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Speaker 1: Look, Disney's we need to talk about this Story's live

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Speaker 1: action version of the classic fairy tale snow White, which

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Speaker 1: somehow incredibly has become almost the most controversial movie of

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Speaker 1: the year so far, has topped the North American box

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Speaker 1: office despite a bunch of very underwhelming reviews.

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Speaker 2: Yes So was the number one over the last weekend.

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Speaker 2: Took about eighty seven million US dollars globally, about half

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Speaker 2: that came from North America, actually below expectations, so not

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Speaker 2: everyone saying it was a good weekend. It cost about

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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy million dollars to make. The reworking

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Speaker 2: of the nineteen thirty seven feature length animation seemed like

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Speaker 2: a sure fire hit before running into a series of

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Speaker 2: controversies ahead of its release. I suppose I started listing

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Speaker 2: them so. There was criticism of the casting of Rachel Zegler,

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Speaker 2: who's of Colombian descent, as a heroine. There's also a

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Speaker 2: backlash about Zegler's pro Palestinian comments and about pro Israel

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Speaker 2: comments by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, who plays snow White

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Speaker 2: step mother the Evil Queen throw in Zeglar's comments about

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Speaker 2: the movie being about a stalker on social media. Also

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Speaker 2: the ongoing debate about whether they should even have been

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Speaker 2: dwarfs in the film at all. In fact, Disney reclassified

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Speaker 2: them as magical creatures. None of the actors were Dwarfs.

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Speaker 2: They were altered, so the actual no Dwarf actors were used.

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Speaker 2: It's just become a total flashpoint for the anti woke movement.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't even know where to go with that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nowhere to go with that.

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Speaker 1: I think you've said it all up. Next is the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Roger Montgomery from Montgomery

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Speaker 1: Investment Management. A must listen, and of course keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on the playlist at midday today for the new

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Speaker 1: episode of ours Fear and Greed plenty coming up on

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Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com today you

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Speaker 1: which is where you sign up for the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed newsletter as well. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the twenty fifth of March twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. A'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.