WEBVTT - Are we set for major blackouts?

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<v Speaker 1>The Coalition and parts of the media have seized on

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<v Speaker 1>a report that says Australia could be set for widespread blackouts.

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<v Speaker 2>Eastern Australia faces a heightened risk of blackouts from twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seven, amid fresh warnings from the Energy Market Operator

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<v Speaker 2>that the grid is underprepared to manage the plan closure

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<v Speaker 2>of the Iraring Power station in New South Wales and

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<v Speaker 2>the surge and rooftop SOL.

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<v Speaker 3>It shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody the renewables

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<v Speaker 3>roll out. That ideological approach that Chris Bowen and the

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<v Speaker 3>Labor Party have taken. We've been saying for some time,

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<v Speaker 3>isn't just pushing prices up, it's also risking the stability

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<v Speaker 3>of the grid.

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<v Speaker 4>About the fossil fuels, So how could they have been

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<v Speaker 4>so effective in driving out the fossil fuels yet they

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<v Speaker 4>haven't replaced it with anything else that can provide that inertia?

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<v Speaker 1>They say, it's proof that the government is putting an

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<v Speaker 1>obsession with renewables over reliability and cost. So what needs

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<v Speaker 1>to change to keep the lights on you? I'm Ruby

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<v Speaker 1>Jones and you're listening to seven AM today. Energy and

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<v Speaker 1>Climate Change program director at the Gratton Institute, Alison Reeve

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<v Speaker 1>and what will happen as coal comes offline and why

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<v Speaker 1>our power bills are really going up. It's Friday, December five,

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<v Speaker 1>so there's been a lot made of the Energy Market

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<v Speaker 1>Operator a warning that Australia could face a spike of

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<v Speaker 1>blackouts as coal fired stations come to the end of

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<v Speaker 1>their life. So tell me what they've said exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, the report pointed to an emerging gap because of

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<v Speaker 5>the plan closure of a Ring power station in New

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<v Speaker 5>South Wales, which is scheduled twenty twenty seven. There's enough

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<v Speaker 5>new generation, so enough new solar farms and enough new

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<v Speaker 5>wing farms in the development pipeline to replace the electricity.

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<v Speaker 5>But the other thing that auraring does is it provides

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<v Speaker 5>some of this services that we need that help keep

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<v Speaker 5>the grid stable. Now, AEMO has been actually drawing attention

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<v Speaker 5>to this for about the last five years, and Transgrid,

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<v Speaker 5>who operate the New South Wales grid, have actually been

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<v Speaker 5>a bit slow to act on it. The current solution

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<v Speaker 5>was for them to procure what are called synchronous condensers.

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<v Speaker 5>So these are things that help provide stability into the system.

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<v Speaker 5>The thing is that they can't get those in place

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<v Speaker 5>until twenty twenty eight, and araing is slated to close

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty seven. If we want the system to stay secure,

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<v Speaker 5>then the market operator will probably need to intervene more

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<v Speaker 5>directly in order to do that. So they could, for example,

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<v Speaker 5>direct some of the gas or the hydro power stations

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<v Speaker 5>to run more, and that would have a cost associated

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<v Speaker 5>with it. And you know, I think it depends on

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<v Speaker 5>how long it takes for the transmission company to get

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<v Speaker 5>this procurement process done. It's sort of taking them about

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<v Speaker 5>three to five years to do these procurements. The thing

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<v Speaker 5>is that when a coal plant wants to close, it

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<v Speaker 5>only needs to tell the operator three and a half

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<v Speaker 5>years ahead of time. So there's a little bit of

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<v Speaker 5>a mis match there between the amount of notice you

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<v Speaker 5>have to give and how quickly people can put things

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<v Speaker 5>in place to replace the system services.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, and the coalition has seized on this and they

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<v Speaker 1>say that it proves that the transition to renewables is failing.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me about the way that they are framing

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<v Speaker 1>what a EMA was said.

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<v Speaker 5>I think the framing that they've chosen to use is

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<v Speaker 5>to say, oh, look, we actually need the coll to

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<v Speaker 5>be there.

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<v Speaker 6>We're starting to see is all the warnings that have

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<v Speaker 6>been issued around Chris Baron's ideologically driven renewables only perhatch

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<v Speaker 6>that approach are all coming home to roost and he

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<v Speaker 6>has nothing.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's actually not correct. What we need are system

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<v Speaker 5>services that can provide stability the grid, and we've got

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<v Speaker 5>lots of options for those. We can use gas, we

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<v Speaker 5>can use hydro, we can use the synchronous condensers, you

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<v Speaker 5>can do a little bit with batteries and clever electronics

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<v Speaker 5>as well. The thing that's actually failing here is that

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<v Speaker 5>the processes that were set up in the late nineties

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<v Speaker 5>to manage the electricity market aren't fit for purpose anymore.

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<v Speaker 5>We designed those for a very steady state market where

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<v Speaker 5>we weren't going to build very much, and we weren't

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<v Speaker 5>going to build very quickly, and that's not where we

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<v Speaker 5>are today. We're in a place where there's been this

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<v Speaker 5>really rapid change in technology, and we've got a rapid

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<v Speaker 5>and a really large building task to do, and regulation

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<v Speaker 5>hasn't kept up with it. The way I kind of

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<v Speaker 5>think of this is that if climate change went away tomorrow,

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<v Speaker 5>we would still have this problem because a ring would

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<v Speaker 5>still close because it's not making enough money to stay open,

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<v Speaker 5>and we'd still be wanting to replace it with the

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<v Speaker 5>cheapest possible combination of technology, and that would be solar

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<v Speaker 5>and wind and storage and a bit of gas for backup,

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<v Speaker 5>and then something that helps to provide the system strength.

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<v Speaker 5>So this isn't really a problem with the transition to

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<v Speaker 5>renewables per se. It's a problem with the way that

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<v Speaker 5>we've set this system up.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, can we talk a bit more about the transition.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the data on how that is going, How

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<v Speaker 1>much power are we getting from renewables at this moment

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<v Speaker 1>in time, and what is that doing to electricity prices

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<v Speaker 1>into the security of the energy grind.

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<v Speaker 5>Sure, so, renewals are about forty percent of electricity at

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<v Speaker 5>the moment. In September and October of this year, they

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<v Speaker 5>were the largest source of electricity in our big one

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<v Speaker 5>which is called the National Energy Market, that's the East

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<v Speaker 5>Coast market. That's the first time we've had more renewals

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<v Speaker 5>than coal, So that's a really big milestone. Renewables are

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<v Speaker 5>not pushing up prices. So the three things that have

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<v Speaker 5>pushed prices up since twenty twenty two have been the

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<v Speaker 5>war between Russia and Ukraine, the weather and the age

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<v Speaker 5>of the coalfid powerstations. So the war between Russia and

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<v Speaker 5>Ukraine pushed up the price of gas and coal, and

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<v Speaker 5>because most of our electricity over that period of time

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<v Speaker 5>came from those sources, this pushed up electricity prices. At

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<v Speaker 5>the same time, we also had lots of floods, and

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<v Speaker 5>so that flooded some coal mines, which meant we couldn't

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<v Speaker 5>get coal. It flooded railway lines, which meant we couldn't

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<v Speaker 5>get the coal to the colfoid powerstations. And then the

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<v Speaker 5>other thing is that those colfoid power stations are getting

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<v Speaker 5>old and they're less reliable, and that means that they

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<v Speaker 5>just fail more often. And because those failures are sudden,

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<v Speaker 5>that often means that we get gas coming in to

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<v Speaker 5>fill the gap if we need to. And because gas

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<v Speaker 5>is a very expensive form of generation, that means you

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<v Speaker 5>end up with higher prices. The thing that's been happening

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<v Speaker 5>with security. Having more renewables in the grid means that

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<v Speaker 5>we have a grid where things like voltage and frequency

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<v Speaker 5>and so on, which are sort of the physics of

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<v Speaker 5>the grid, they fluctuate a lot more and so you

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<v Speaker 5>need other sources of either generational load that can handle

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<v Speaker 5>that fluctuation and can sort of come on and off

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<v Speaker 5>very quickly in order to keep the grid stable. So

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<v Speaker 5>that is why people talk about the need for using

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<v Speaker 5>gas for backup and also hydro, because both of those

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<v Speaker 5>can come on and off very quickly. Coal can't come

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<v Speaker 5>on and off very quickly, and so that is one

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<v Speaker 5>of the reasons why coal is kind of getting left

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<v Speaker 5>behind in this whole process because coal doesn't play well

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<v Speaker 5>with the grid that's got lots of renewables in it.

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<v Speaker 5>It also really frankly finds that it can't make a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of money.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, there have been delays and costs blowouts though, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So what would you put that down to? Where is

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<v Speaker 1>the transition genuinely struggling?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, a lot of this is because we're trying to

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<v Speaker 5>build a lot of stuff really quickly, and we are

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<v Speaker 5>also doing that in a period of time where we

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<v Speaker 5>were coming out of COVID as well. That means there's

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<v Speaker 5>been quite a queue for projects to get their planning approvals.

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<v Speaker 5>And the thing is that when there's a delay in

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<v Speaker 5>your planning approvals, there's more time in which your costs

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<v Speaker 5>can blow out. You know, the people that you want

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<v Speaker 5>to buy from will revise their costs and those will

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<v Speaker 5>tend to go upwards. Costs have also gone up because

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<v Speaker 5>inflation's gone up, so the cost of everything's gone up.

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<v Speaker 5>That's been a bit of a worldwide phenomena as well.

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<v Speaker 5>And the rest of the world is trying to build

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of renewables very quickly as well, so we're

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<v Speaker 5>kind of in competition with a lot of other countries,

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<v Speaker 5>particularly for equipment, wind turbines and that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 5>So those are the kind of things that have been

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<v Speaker 5>the problem here. They're not really engineering problems, they're logistics problems.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up with Australia set to badly miss our twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five emissions targets, what would it take to get

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<v Speaker 1>back on track? So, Alison, if the Coalition wins the

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<v Speaker 1>next selection, it has said that it would dump Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>twenty fifty zero target, and it's also said it would

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<v Speaker 1>rewrite the rules around the energy market. So tell me

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<v Speaker 1>what they're actually proposing to change.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So the two things they want to change in

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<v Speaker 5>the energy market rules are to scrap the reference in

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<v Speaker 5>the rules to meeting emissions reduction targets, and then they've

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<v Speaker 5>also said that they want to establish a thing called

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<v Speaker 5>a capacity market, and a capacity market essentially is a

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<v Speaker 5>way of paying electricity generators for being available, rather than

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<v Speaker 5>just the electricity they produce, and it's a really tricky

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<v Speaker 5>thing to implement. The places that have done it have

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<v Speaker 5>often found that you end up with higher prices for

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<v Speaker 5>consumers because it's hard to work out how much sort

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<v Speaker 5>of basically, how much of an insurance policy do you

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<v Speaker 5>want and how much do you want to pay for

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<v Speaker 5>that insurance policy. Australia tried to establish a capacity market

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<v Speaker 5>in twenty probably twenty twenty through to twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 5>and the big problem that we ran into was there

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<v Speaker 5>was no clarity around what sort of generators we're going

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<v Speaker 5>to be allowed to participate, especially was cold going to

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<v Speaker 5>be paid to hang around? And people didn't really like

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<v Speaker 5>that idea. The thing is here that the two reforms

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<v Speaker 5>the Coalition are proposing or in conflict. If you want

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<v Speaker 5>a capacity market, you need clarity about who's in and

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<v Speaker 5>who's out, and the easiest way to do that is

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<v Speaker 5>to have a clear emission subjective. But they've said that

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<v Speaker 5>they want to take the emissions objective away, So taking

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<v Speaker 5>that emissions objective away is actually going to make it

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<v Speaker 5>harder for them to establish a capacity market, which is

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<v Speaker 5>one of the things that they want to do in

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<v Speaker 5>order to supply system security.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. And would it work for that goal though, Would

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<v Speaker 1>having a capacity market provide security to the energy grid.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it would, It's just a question of what you

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<v Speaker 5>want to pay for it. And I think there is

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<v Speaker 5>a real question about whether you let coal into it

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<v Speaker 5>or not, because you can pay the coal to stay open,

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<v Speaker 5>but it doesn't fix its reliability problem because it doesn't

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<v Speaker 5>change how old it is. I think if it as

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<v Speaker 5>being a little bit like having an old car. Right,

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<v Speaker 5>you can pay for a new gearbox, you can pay

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<v Speaker 5>for a new clutch, you can put a new carburettor

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<v Speaker 5>in it, and you'll still be able to drive around.

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<v Speaker 5>But it's going to get more and more expensive, and

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<v Speaker 5>the car is still not going to be as reliable

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<v Speaker 5>as a new one. So you will be paying if

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<v Speaker 5>we keep the coal online for longer.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. And the coalition also talks about delivering more gas

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<v Speaker 1>and cheaper gas, and the Labor government also says we

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<v Speaker 1>need gas to bridge the transition to renewables, So what

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<v Speaker 1>can be done to lower gas prices?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so there's two things that drive the cost of gas.

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<v Speaker 5>One is the cost of what it takes to extract it,

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<v Speaker 5>and the other one is what our overseas customers want

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<v Speaker 5>to pay for it. The thing is that gas is

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<v Speaker 5>not a renewal resource. Once you've extracted it and burnt it,

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<v Speaker 5>it's gone. And the gas industry started with the cheapest

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<v Speaker 5>and the easiest to extract gas. But the thing is

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<v Speaker 5>we've used that all up now. So the gas that

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<v Speaker 5>we are getting now is more expensive because where we're

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<v Speaker 5>getting it from is harder to access and further from

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<v Speaker 5>where the users are. So we aren't going to ever

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<v Speaker 5>see a return to the sort of prices we had

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<v Speaker 5>in the past because the cheap gas is no longer there.

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<v Speaker 5>On the international price side, that happens because most of

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<v Speaker 5>the gas that we extract goes overseas, and those customers

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<v Speaker 5>are willing to pay more for it than Australians are,

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<v Speaker 5>and that pushes the price up. I actually think rather

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<v Speaker 5>than talking about gas lower gas prices, what we should

0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.720
<v Speaker 5>be talking about is lower gas costs if we reduce

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:59.200
<v Speaker 5>how much we depend on gas, If we're using less

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:00.960
<v Speaker 5>of it, we can actually we afford to pay a

0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 5>little bit more for it. So the thing that we

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.600
<v Speaker 5>really should be thinking about is where are the parts

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.920
<v Speaker 5>of the economy where we genuinely do need to use

0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.040
<v Speaker 5>gas and where are the things where actually we'd be

0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.280
<v Speaker 5>better off if we didn't use it at all. And

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.080
<v Speaker 5>if we lean hard into that, then I think where

0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.840
<v Speaker 5>we end up with is affordable gas, which is not

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:24.120
<v Speaker 5>necessarily cheap, but it is having the amount available that

0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:26.280
<v Speaker 5>people want at a price that they're willing to pay for.

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:31.280
<v Speaker 1>And Chris Bowen recently revealed that Australia is not expected

0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.400
<v Speaker 1>to meet our climate target by twenty thirty and to

0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 1>miss our twenty thirty five target as well without significant changes.

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.679
<v Speaker 7>It's normal for there to be a gap between projected

0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:43.360
<v Speaker 7>emissions and a target ten years into the future. That's

0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.000
<v Speaker 7>why you said a target, and as new policies are

0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.720
<v Speaker 7>developed and implemented, the emission's outlook improves. That's what a

0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:50.320
<v Speaker 7>target is for.

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:54.199
<v Speaker 1>So what changes would we need to see us back

0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:54.720
<v Speaker 1>on track?

0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.600
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I am not super worried about the twenty thirty target.

0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.400
<v Speaker 5>If the government's right, then we'll get a forty two

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.280
<v Speaker 5>percent reduction in emissions on two thousand and five levels.

0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:06.959
<v Speaker 5>The target is forty three percent, and that's only seven

0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:10.120
<v Speaker 5>million tons difference, right, that's kind of margin of ero territory.

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 5>That's the sort of thing that will get wiped out

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.080
<v Speaker 5>by I don't know, another line need a year, or

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.720
<v Speaker 5>another drought or a currency fluctuation or something like that.

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.520
<v Speaker 5>The twenty thirty five ones a bit more of a concern.

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 5>We're going to need extra policy if we want to

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:27.080
<v Speaker 5>hit that target. We've squeezed most of what we can

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.880
<v Speaker 5>out of the electricity sector. The sectors we now have

0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 5>to put attension on our industry and mining and transport

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:37.000
<v Speaker 5>because those have all been growing. Industry mining together are

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:39.600
<v Speaker 5>now larger than the electricity sector is a source of emissions,

0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.440
<v Speaker 5>and transport is rapidly getting up there as well. So

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:45.560
<v Speaker 5>those are the two things where we need to be

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:50.679
<v Speaker 5>seeing policy changes to basically get heavy industry off gas

0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.680
<v Speaker 5>and off coal, and to get our transport fleet off petrol.

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 5>And a lot of that story for all of those

0:13:56.960 --> 0:13:59.839
<v Speaker 5>is going to be about electrification, and that's why it's

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.720
<v Speaker 5>actually important to have a clean and reliable electricity supply.

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Well, Allison, thank you so much for your time, That's okay.

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, the federal and state governments are

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 1>now carrying more than a trillion dollars in public debt,

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 1>according to new figures from the Parliamentary Budget Office. The

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 1>report shows governments will spend more than fifty billion dollars

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 1>a year just servicing their loans, almost as much as

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the entire annual NDIS budget, as health and infrastructure costs

0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:42.120
<v Speaker 1>continue to rise. Tasmania's credit rating has been downgraded over

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 1>concerns about its growing debt, while Queensland and South Australia

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 1>are forecast to record the fastest increases in borrowing and

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>a South African neo Nazi who took part in a

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>protest outside the New South Wales Parliament has left the

0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 1>country after his visa was revoked by the Home Affairs Minister.

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>Matthew Gruder was photographed at the National Socialist Network rally

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 1>calling to abolish the Jewish Lobby, where protesters also chanted

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.920
<v Speaker 1>blood and honor, a phrase link to the Hitler youth.

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.360
<v Speaker 1>He was taken into immigration detention last month and left

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.280
<v Speaker 1>the country with his wife and child on Thursday. The

0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:17.800
<v Speaker 1>protest has prompted the New South Wales government to titan

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>state laws introducing new offenses for displaying or promoting Nazi

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 1>ideology at public demonstrations. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for listening.