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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Investors can expect a wild ride on equity markets over

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Speaker 1: the next three weeks as profit season promises big market moves,

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Speaker 1: the AI spending boom by big tech heads towards one

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars annually, drawing comparisons with the nineteenth century rail

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Speaker 1: boom in the US, and unusual ways to gain an

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Speaker 1: advantage in the men's ski jumping competition at the Olympics,

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Speaker 1: plus the federal coalition reunites, and a bump a week

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Speaker 1: for home sales. It is Monday, the ninth of February

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning Michael. You are waiting for that last story already.

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Speaker 1: Oh the ski jumping. I don't know how we're going

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Speaker 1: to get through that with straight faces, Sean, but we'll

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Speaker 1: deal with that when we get to it. So much

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Speaker 1: still to come first. The main story this morning, Profit

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Speaker 1: season on the ASX kicks off in earnest this week,

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Speaker 1: with a backdrop of huge sell offs in commodities, big

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Speaker 1: drops in the tech sector, and a rising interest rate environment.

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Speaker 1: It's very likely you'd have to say to be a

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Speaker 1: pretty volatile ride for equity investors over the next three weeks.

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Speaker 2: Sure is, I mean the switching between sectors has already begun,

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Speaker 2: from tech and the Commonwealth Bank to mining, and if

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Speaker 2: stocks in those sectors give investors reasons to sell, particularly

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Speaker 2: the tech stocks, then their share prices could drop very,

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Speaker 2: very sharply. Earnings, revenue growth, profit margins, dividends all important,

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Speaker 2: but if you want to predict share price movements, look

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Speaker 2: at the company's guidance for the next period and compare

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Speaker 2: that to consensus. That's where you'll see the big moves.

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Speaker 2: Some of the big at notables during the past couple

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Speaker 2: of seasons have been huge movements in large cap stocks

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Speaker 2: immediately after the results, a reluctance to provide earning's outlook forecasts,

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Speaker 2: which investors do not like, and of course a big

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Speaker 2: focus on AI. Picking the market during profit season is very,

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Speaker 2: very challenging. High frequency trading, passive money other exotic investment

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Speaker 2: options means the move in prices and the minutes and

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Speaker 2: hours after a profit reports might well be reversed within days,

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Speaker 2: or they might set momentum for trading for weeks. Really

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Speaker 2: hard to know. Already started really On Friday, Aria, the

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Speaker 2: online property group, It dropped eight percent on its results.

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Speaker 2: News Court was down five point four percent. Now Aria

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Speaker 2: dropped eight percent. It was actually only missed its forecast

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Speaker 2: by one percent. Wow, wasn't it? Sold off? Credit Corp

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Speaker 2: Its results last week sold down seventeen percent. Wednesdays when

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Speaker 2: things really kick off. Commonwealth Bank AGL and James Hardy

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Speaker 2: will report, followed by IAG Northern Star in South thirty

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Speaker 2: two on Thursday and Cochlear on Friday.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned tech stocks, Sean and I just want to

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Speaker 1: focus on that for a minute because they really have

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Speaker 1: had a wild ride with investors worried that companies are

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Speaker 1: actually spending too much on AI or that AI will

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Speaker 1: replace business models. And we've seen some great examples of

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Speaker 1: that in the last few days.

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Speaker 2: I mean, one of the best ones Australian born Nastack listed.

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Speaker 2: At Lassian fell four percent over the weekend. It's getting

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Speaker 2: caught up reported it's actually down seventy percent over the

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Speaker 2: past year. It's really getting caught up in fears that

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Speaker 2: AI will replace what at Lassian Software does now Founder

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Speaker 2: and CEO Mike Canan Brooks on Friday, so that the

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Speaker 2: company was perfectly positioned to cash in on AI, so

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Speaker 2: rather than being threatened by it, it can use Ai.

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Speaker 2: Adding that he was continuing to build and I quote

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Speaker 2: him a effing great business just sounds like he is

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Speaker 2: getting a little worried about that.

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Speaker 1: Seems very emphatic in the way that he's trying to

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Speaker 1: describe this, and I suppose it fits the vibe of Alassian,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it. The other example comes from the big tech

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Speaker 1: players in the States. For the biggest US technology companies

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Speaker 1: together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about six

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion US dollars. That's not far off

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Speaker 1: a trillion AUSIE dollars, and that's twenty twenty six. And

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Speaker 1: depending on the story that they told investors, maybe the

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Speaker 1: surge has happened in the case of Meta or tumbled

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Speaker 1: in the case of Microsoft.

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Speaker 2: And the numbers are just ridiculous. The spending planned by Alphabet, Amazon, Meta,

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Speaker 2: and Microsoft on new data centers, artificial intelligence, chips, networking, cables,

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Speaker 2: backup generators, all that stuff is without parallel this century.

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Speaker 2: Each of the company's estimated outlays, so each individual outlay

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Speaker 2: this year would set a high watermark for capital spending

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Speaker 2: by any single corporation in any one of the past

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Speaker 2: ten years. It compares to the telecommunications bubble of the

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Speaker 2: nineteen nineties and perhaps the build out of the US

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Speaker 2: railroad networks in the nineteenth century. This is one that

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Speaker 2: really gets me. Compare their spending to the largest US

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Speaker 2: based automakers, construction equipment manufacturers, railroads, defense contractors, wireless carriers.

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Speaker 2: Parceled the outfits along with Excellent Mobile, Intel, Walmart, and

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Speaker 2: the twenty one companies that used to be General Electric. Combined,

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Speaker 2: those companies are projected to spend one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: billion US dollars in twenty twenty six. These guys are

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Speaker 2: spending four times that amount.

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Speaker 1: Incredible, that is extraordinary, just staggering figures and just quickly

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Speaker 1: shown before we leave market. A pretty rough finish to

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Speaker 1: last last week's training. It feels like I'm actually understating it.

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Speaker 1: It was rotten.

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Speaker 2: It was Spisex two hundred felt two percent on Friday

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Speaker 2: to nine, seven hundred and nine points ninety five percent

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Speaker 2: of the AX two hundred stocks one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 2: stocks ended the day lower than where they started. Energies, Telcos,

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Speaker 2: tech stocks, property, they are all hit really hard, basically

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Speaker 2: caught a mid worries about rising interest rates in Australia

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Speaker 2: and fears that the AI boom's over done, or fears

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Speaker 2: that AOL will replace business models of some tech companies.

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Speaker 2: Very volatile stocks. Of course, the gold stocks haven't mentioned.

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Speaker 2: They were the worst of the lot last week because

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Speaker 2: of the drop in the price of gold. Silver prices

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Speaker 2: also took a dive. And this is all before we're

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Speaker 2: actually getting to earning season.

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Speaker 1: And Bitcoin as well. It's slide continues.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, late last week, Bitcoin hit sixty thousand US dollars

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Speaker 2: for the first time since October twenty twenty four, bounced

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Speaker 2: the Little the crypto leader down twenty percent last week,

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Speaker 2: nearly fifty percent from its peak. Was a cracking Bitcoin

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Speaker 2: story over the weekend which I just had to throw in. So.

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Speaker 2: South Korean crypto currency Exchange has apologized after mistakenly transferring

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Speaker 2: more than sixty billion US dollars worth of bitcoin to users.

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Speaker 2: Now according to reports, it's called bit hum, but humb

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Speaker 2: bit bit Ham was meant to send about two thousand

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Speaker 2: and one, which is an equivalent of about three dollars

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Speaker 2: ozzie two thousand and one to each customer as part

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Speaker 2: of a promotion, but mistakenly transferred roughly two thousand bitcoins

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Speaker 2: per user ie sixty billions dollars woops, talking about thirty

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Speaker 2: five minutes to realize that made the mistake, and they

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Speaker 2: are busy can sort of stalling accounts and temporarily closing

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Speaker 2: them down and getting it all back. I haven't heard

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Speaker 2: that they actually lost money. I think they recoup most

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Speaker 2: of it. But imagine that poor person.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, the one who actually hit go on

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Speaker 1: the transfer. It's a bit of a rough time at

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Speaker 1: the moment for crypto exchanges because gem and I, which

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Speaker 1: kind of launched in Australia with a bit of fanfare

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Speaker 1: in I think October of last year, has announced that

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Speaker 1: it's winding down its Australian operations in the UK and

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Speaker 1: the EU everywhere. Basically it's cutting I think about twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent of its stuff. But it only started here

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Speaker 1: in October and already it's out. It is tough being

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Speaker 1: a crypto exchange right now.

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Speaker 2: Very tough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, plenty more still to come, including the

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Speaker 1: skiing story. Sean just can't wait. We'll be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news Sean,

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Speaker 1: the federal coalition is back together again. Liberals leader Susan

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Speaker 1: Lee and Nationals leader David little Proud have done a

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Speaker 1: deal which involves all the Nats sitting on the back

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Speaker 1: bench until March one before rejoining shadow cabinet.

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Speaker 2: Did you see the two leaders yesterday?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Look uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: You know what it was reminiscent of. It was reminiscent

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Speaker 1: of when Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard had to read

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Speaker 1: March not long after that leadership turmoil had gone through

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Speaker 1: and neither wanted to be there. We're seeing it again.

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Speaker 2: Oh, totally. After March one, all previous Nationals shadow cabinet

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Speaker 2: ministers will return to their previous portfolios. All shadow ministers

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Speaker 2: will be required to sign an agreement affirming shadow cabinet solidarity,

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Speaker 2: which is a win for Lee. Little Proud walked back

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Speaker 2: on maybe talk back comments that he wouldn't work with

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Speaker 2: the Liberal Party leader. Senior MPs and members of both

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Speaker 2: parties pushed for the reunification. I reckon Michael. Probably a

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Speaker 2: win for Lee on this one because the fact that

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Speaker 2: all the Nats go to the back bench for a period,

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Speaker 2: the sin bidding of the whole team, So she's probably

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Speaker 2: happy about that. Then she turns up and looks behind her,

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Speaker 2: and there's, you know, Angus Taylor.

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Speaker 1: Angus Taylor waiting. He's already doing the numbers. It's surely

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Speaker 1: it's only a matter of time. But maybe this has

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Speaker 1: just brought her maybe a few more weeks.

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Speaker 2: Maybe she looked she stood up to the Nats, and

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Speaker 2: they the Nats and the Libs need each other, no

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Speaker 2: doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And it actually almost feels a little bit unfair

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Speaker 1: if they kind of continue with the leadership rumblings now

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Speaker 1: on for the Liberal Party, because this is a big

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Speaker 1: thing to have been able to extract an agreement and

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Speaker 1: to bring the two parties back together when honestly, it

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Speaker 1: did look pretty terminal a week, week and a half ago, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: sure did now. A Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock was

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Speaker 1: before the House of Reps Standing Committee on Economics on Friday,

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Speaker 1: and while much of the attention was really on whether

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Speaker 1: she thought federal government spending added to inflationary pressures, she

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Speaker 1: also said, perhaps unsurprisingly, that she wasn't happy with the

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Speaker 1: current inflation rate.

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Speaker 2: In fact, if inflation will be above target for six years,

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Speaker 2: if the reserves. Banks forecasts which push out to twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty eight are realized, so from twenty twenty two to

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight looks like inflation will be above target. Now,

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Speaker 2: before twenty twenty two, inflation was well below target for

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Speaker 2: several years. Michelle Bullock pointed that out. She also argued

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Speaker 2: that last year's three year three rate cuts were not

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Speaker 2: premature and the RBA had lifted rates less than other

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Speaker 2: countries cut rates by less as well, that managed to

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Speaker 2: get the economy to a reasonably good place. Bullock explained

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Speaker 2: that monetary policy is a bitter tool to manage short

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Speaker 2: term imbalances between supply and demand and the economy. The

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Speaker 2: government's budget more focus on longer term concerns. She also

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Speaker 2: stressed the need for independent central banks, said businesses need

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Speaker 2: to do more to tackle Australia's low productivity challenge. But

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Speaker 2: of course it was all about government spending. She basically said, Look,

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Speaker 2: we look after aggregate demand, that's public and private sector spending. Therefore,

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Speaker 2: public sector spending is part of aggregate demand. Therefore we

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Speaker 2: do worry about it. But she stops short of saying

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Speaker 2: the government is spending too much. For the record, government

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Speaker 2: spending gone from twenty four point three percent of GDP

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Speaker 2: a couple of years ago to almost twenty seven percent

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Speaker 2: this year. Michael, the government is definitely adding to aggregate

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Speaker 2: demand and inflation pressures.

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Speaker 1: Now Sean. The start of the twenty twenty six auction

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Speaker 1: season has actually been surprisingly strong, with the preliminary clearance

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Speaker 1: rate rebounding from the low sixty percent range in mid

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Speaker 1: December to this week's result of seventy three point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, best results since September last year, much better than

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Speaker 2: last week. The result has been on the back of

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Speaker 2: a softening in auction volumes, so you would think, you know,

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Speaker 2: fewer auctions, probably less supply. Still the demand that sort

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Speaker 2: of pushes up prices. Having said that, much of the

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Speaker 2: strength and clearance rates came from Sydney that was at

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Speaker 2: seventy nine point six percent, a cracking result, highest preliminary

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Speaker 2: outcomes since the last week of August, even though there

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Speaker 2: was a jump in the number of auctions. Melbourne came

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Speaker 2: in at sixty seven point nine. Things get even busier

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Speaker 2: this coming week as we head towards the autumn selling season.

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Speaker 1: Into international news now Sean. Japanese voters went to the

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Speaker 1: polls yesterday after just a sixteen day campaign with right

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Speaker 1: wing prime ministers and attaka Ichi hoping to shore up

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Speaker 1: her grip on power.

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Speaker 2: Taka Ichi has staked her job on the outcome of

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Speaker 2: the election, saying she will step down if her ruling

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Speaker 2: coalition fails to win a majority in the more powerful

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Speaker 2: lower house. She currently holds a razor thin majority of

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Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty three out of four hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty five seats. Of course that's one seat is why

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Speaker 2: she holds that majority. Surveys indicate that taka Ichi is

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Speaker 2: on track to win big. Some have forecast at the

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Speaker 2: ruling Liberal Democrat Party could win a standalone majority. Now

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Speaker 2: cost of living big issue over there. What I think

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Speaker 2: is fascinating about this story? Will Japan gain the polls?

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Speaker 2: It's fascinating a sixteen day election campaign?

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Speaker 1: Would we love that? You know who would love that?

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Speaker 1: Even more would be New Zealand. Weren't we talking last

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Speaker 1: week that they've called the election for November seven this year,

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Speaker 1: which is a ten months ten and a half month

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Speaker 1: election campaign. Sounds like torture Sean. Now finally we are here,

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Speaker 1: We've arrived. This may well be a real version of

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Speaker 1: fake news, and honestly, it probably is. It's one of

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Speaker 1: those things that may well have started in rumor and

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Speaker 1: has just gained a bit of momentum. But it's also

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Speaker 1: somewhat true because it's been commented on by anti doping

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Speaker 1: chiefs at the Winter Olympics, ready to investigate suggestions that

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Speaker 1: ski jumpers Sean are gaining a performance advantage by enlarging

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Speaker 1: their penises.

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Speaker 2: Where do you Go? Reports in the German newspaper Build

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Speaker 2: have raised fears that professional ski jumpers are enlarging their

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Speaker 2: genitalia by injecting I can't even say the word highaluronic acid,

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Speaker 2: injecting something to burst crotch dimensions. This could be highly

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Speaker 2: significant in ski jumping because that would permit jumpers to

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Speaker 2: wear a larger suit, which would in turn improve their

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Speaker 2: flight lift and thus overall distance.

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Speaker 1: Surely there would be a compromise on that, though in

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Speaker 1: terms of not as aerodynamic. It's reminiscent of the the

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Speaker 1: was it the Ryan Air argument about why they didn't

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Speaker 1: want to put the starlink aerials on their planes because

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Speaker 1: it increases drag.

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Speaker 2: Oh look, I don't know the technical side of this, Michael,

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Speaker 2: but this is I mean, the only doping experts are

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Speaker 2: talking about it now. A study in the journal Frontiers

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Speaker 2: found that for every two centimeter increase in the circumference

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Speaker 2: of a ski suit ski suit Michael, corresponding increase in

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Speaker 2: lift of five percent an increase in drag of four percent.

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Speaker 2: This was estimated to equate to a four point eight

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Speaker 2: meter increase in jump distance. So if you can inject

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Speaker 2: your pennis, meaning you need a bigger ski suit, you

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Speaker 2: could well five six meters further. As well as unfair

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Speaker 2: performance advantage, the World Antidoping Agency can prohibit substances on

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Speaker 2: the basis of safety and violations of the spirit of sport.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure that's where this one fits in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you would think that if you just if

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Speaker 1: you were trying to get into a bigger ski sze

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Speaker 1: you just eat more pies or something. That's probably an

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Speaker 1: easier way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just uncomfortable at this story.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on, Yeah, let's move on quickly. Up next,

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed, Q and A. It is the week

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Speaker 1: Ahead today with Stephen Coucoulis. We've got a lot actually

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Speaker 1: coming out this week. Household spending, we've got lending data,

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Speaker 1: got a lot of things that kind of shed a

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Speaker 1: little bit more light on what the Reserve Bank is

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Speaker 1: trying to deal with at the moment with last week's

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Speaker 1: interest rate hike. Is coming up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au, which is also where you sign

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Speaker 1: up for the free daily newsletter. I'll put a link

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Speaker 1: in today's show notes to that one. Thank you, Sean,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. It's Monday, the ninth of February twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.