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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today,

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates and hints that there

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Speaker 1: could be more hikes later in the year. The federal

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Speaker 1: coalition parties remain at odds over reuniting, and cheaper challenger

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Speaker 1: brands are winning the mobile battle in Australia. Plus Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk combines his two private companies as he pushes to

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Speaker 1: develop data centers in space, and the US owned TikTok

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Speaker 1: changes terms and conditions, upsetting newsers. It is Wednesday, the

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Speaker 1: fourth of February twenty twenty six. Are Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The main

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Speaker 1: story this morning, a pickup in inflation over the past

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Speaker 1: six months has opened the way for several interest rate

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Speaker 1: increases this year, following on from yesterday's zero point twenty

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Speaker 1: five percentage point hike by the Reserve Bank the first

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Speaker 1: and six what first two years? Now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the first time it jumped or rose in two years.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank said the increase in was more broad based

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Speaker 2: and persistent than first thought, and upgraded its inflation forecast

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Speaker 2: to be materially higher. Bad news for we mortgage holders.

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Speaker 2: It expects the CPI to rise above four percent by

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Speaker 2: the middle of the year. The underlying rate is expected

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Speaker 2: to peak at about three point seven percent, is well

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Speaker 2: above the banks two to three percent target. Governor Michelle

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Speaker 2: Bullock said the Board's unanimous decision, and she highlighted that

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Speaker 2: it was a unanimous decision, was due to the resurgence

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Speaker 2: of inflation in the second half of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: It seems the supply side of the economy was unable

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Speaker 2: to keep up with the stronger than expected recovery in

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Speaker 2: household spending and in business investment. Hopes that pick up

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Speaker 2: an inflation was temporary seemed to have gone by the wayside.

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Speaker 2: In her press conference afterwards, Michelle Bullock was asked all

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Speaker 2: sorts of things three rate cuts last year. She said, well,

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Speaker 2: they did more than expected. She also said that they're

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Speaker 2: still flowing through the economy, so there's a risk there.

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Speaker 2: She was asked about whether or not we've just created

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Speaker 2: a new rate hiking cycle. She basically said she wasn't

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Speaker 2: sure on that. It's not like COVID where she expected

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Speaker 2: to keep interests increasing interest rates from zero point one percent,

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Speaker 2: so that wasn't the case. This time, but she wasn't

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Speaker 2: sure about that. She said that really it all depends

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Speaker 2: on aguru get demand and whether or not the supply

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Speaker 2: side of the economy can keep up. What's all this mean, Well,

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Speaker 2: anyone with a six hundred thousand dollars mortgage, the rate

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Speaker 2: hike adds about one hundred dollars a month repayments if

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Speaker 2: on your homeline.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, And of course on the flip side,

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Speaker 1: there are people that will presume being that of course

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Speaker 1: these interest rate hikes who get passed through on savings

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Speaker 1: accounts and everything, that there would be retirees for instance,

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Speaker 1: who will benefit from that in others, but really there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of people with mortgages today that we'll

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Speaker 1: be looking at this going all right, I got to

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Speaker 1: find some extra cash now. The reaction from the Federal

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Speaker 1: opposition was fierce in Parliament yesterday, which is not bad

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Speaker 1: considering that they've been a bit chaotic of late. Opposition. Later,

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Speaker 1: Susan Lee called on Prime Minister Anthony up and Easy

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Speaker 1: to take responsibility for the rate hike, given he took

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Speaker 1: responsibility for the three rate cuts last year.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, it's one of the few areas the opposition parties

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Speaker 2: believe they have some cutos. Albanizi said his government had

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Speaker 2: engaged in responsible economic management and had turned those massive

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Speaker 2: budget deficits from the former coalition government into surpluses. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure about that. Well then past, not in the future. Anyway.

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Speaker 2: The opposition focused on economic commentary that argues government spending

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Speaker 2: is adding to inflation. In fact, they're calling it, Michael,

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Speaker 2: they're calling it jim flation, which is a great, great term.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, he's the subject of that.

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Speaker 2: He said the Reserve Bank did not think government spending

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Speaker 2: was inflationary. When Michelle Bullet was asked that exact question,

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Speaker 2: she did a pretty good job avoiding it. She said

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Speaker 2: that she was interested in aggregate demand, which is public

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Speaker 2: and private spending. She said she wouldn't take it upon

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Speaker 2: us to tell mister Charmers or doctor Charmers how to

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Speaker 2: run his fiscal policy. So she really didn't buy into it.

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Speaker 2: But I think, well, not ready between the lines. I

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Speaker 2: think most economists think that the government spending at the

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Speaker 2: moment isn't helping the inflation outlook.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, which I imagine puts a lot of pressure. Then

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Speaker 1: we are not that far away from a budget now, ah,

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Speaker 1: a couple of a couple of months, so there will

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Speaker 1: be a lot of pressure on the government to pair

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Speaker 1: some things back there. How did the bond market react, Yes,

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Speaker 1: because obviously that reflects expectations of future rate changes.

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Speaker 2: That's right. So the market's now pricing the cash rate

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Speaker 2: of four point two percent by the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: That means at least one more hike, possibly too. Certainly,

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Speaker 2: market economists yesterday said another rate hike later in the

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Speaker 2: year is a real possibility.

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Speaker 1: And how about the rest of the market. What happened

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Speaker 1: with the dollar? What happened with the ASX. Everything reacts

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Speaker 1: when the Reserve Bank moves, it.

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Speaker 2: Does, so there was a dollar jumped from just under

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Speaker 2: seventy usns to nearly seventy point five against the green back.

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Speaker 2: The ASX two hundred was trading up more than one

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Speaker 2: percent when the announcement was made at two thirty pm.

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Speaker 2: It immediately sold off, lizzing about thirty points, kind of

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Speaker 2: regained some of its mojor kind of got back to

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Speaker 2: where it was, and then in the last few minutes

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Speaker 2: just took a tumble. It ended up finishing up zero

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Speaker 2: point nine percent to eight hundred and fifty seven points

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Speaker 2: away from interest rates. The local market rose on the

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Speaker 2: back of a good night on Wall Street and a

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Speaker 2: rebound in precious metals, which have been sold off ferociously

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Speaker 2: this week. The miners and not surprising, the goal companies

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Speaker 2: led the way. The banks, who can perform generally, can

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Speaker 2: outperform in a rising interest rate environment because they can

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Speaker 2: improve profit margins. They mostly underperformed yesterday. I mean Commorf

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Speaker 2: Bank actually did pretty well, but the others didn't. Also

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Speaker 2: bouncing yesterday's shares in local rare earth stocks. That came

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Speaker 2: after US President Donald Trump outlined plans to launch a

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Speaker 2: twelve billion US dollar critical mineral stockpile to counter a

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Speaker 2: reliance on Chinese production. You remember a few days ago

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Speaker 2: Donald Tramite made a few comments and people started selling

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Speaker 2: off battery mentals minerals companies. He said something different twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours ago, and we're buying him again. Very fickle.

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Speaker 1: Twelve billion dollars. That is a big stockpile, Like just

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Speaker 1: trying to actually figure out just how big a shed

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Speaker 1: you would need to keep that stockpile in. That is

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Speaker 1: pretty big. Just before we leave the Reserve bank and

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Speaker 1: interest rates quick mentioned today Sean of the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Q and a episode that we have coming up

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Speaker 1: after this show was finished. Were speaking today to Diana

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Speaker 1: Messina from AMP who has a really interesting take on

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Speaker 1: it because AMP they were actually saying that the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank should hold rate, so they were tipping a hold

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Speaker 1: on rates, So they've got a slightly different take and

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Speaker 1: a really good analysis of it. So that's coming up

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Speaker 1: after the show. Plenty to come before we get there, though,

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Speaker 1: Shawn back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news Seawan. The three National Senates who broke

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Speaker 1: shadow Cabinet rules by voting against the government's anti hate

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Speaker 1: group laws would have to spend six months off the

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Speaker 1: front bench as a condition of the coalition getting back together.

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Speaker 1: This is a stipulation from Susan Lee. So they're basically

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Speaker 1: in detention.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so sinbit, shall we score it that? I like it?

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Speaker 1: I was thinking more of the school, like a school

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Speaker 1: kind of detention for a little while. No, I like sinbin.

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Speaker 1: That's good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay. So Liberals leader Susan Lee met with NAT's

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Speaker 2: leader David Little Proud Monday night. Yesterday she outlined the

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Speaker 2: condition to the Liberal party room that was one of them.

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Speaker 2: Another one was that neither the Liberals nor the Nationals

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Speaker 2: called the party rooms, would have the authority to overturn

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Speaker 2: a decision already taken by the Shadow Cabinet. The Nationals

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Speaker 2: would also have to reaffirm their commitment to shadow cabinet solidarity.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the colition split two weeks ago when three

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Speaker 2: Nats Bridget McKenzie, Susan McDonald and Roscadell the fired shadow

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Speaker 2: Cabinet rules voted against laws to ban hate groups, which

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Speaker 2: were part of the response to the Bondo massacre. In

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Speaker 2: the same yesday, Little Proud said the Nats would take

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Speaker 2: time to consider the deal. Then later in the day

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Speaker 2: media reports suggested that they weren't happy with those arrangements.

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Speaker 2: Little Proud also altered at previous comments about not being

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Speaker 2: able to work with Lee, saying he could not work

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Speaker 2: with the Liberals leader, unless the three SAX senators were reinstated.

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Speaker 1: Sean earning season is upon us. I don't know whether

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Speaker 1: that's a good noise or a bad noise. Just then it's.

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Speaker 2: Happening.

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Speaker 1: It is just intense right half your results for a

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Speaker 1: SX listed companies are about to flood the market. It

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Speaker 1: does kick off properly next week, though a few companies

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Speaker 1: at News corpor and Maria report late this week. Yesterday

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank, so it'll be recognizing a sixty eight million

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Speaker 1: dollar pre tax provision relating to additional payments it made

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Speaker 1: to vulnerable customers at the corporate regulators behest.

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Speaker 2: The bank had initially pushed back on calls from the

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Speaker 2: Australian Securities and Investments Commission to refund fees charged to

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Speaker 2: customers it considered vulnerable, but it backflipped in December by

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Speaker 2: agreeing to make a portion of refunds now come off.

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Speaker 2: Banks schedule to announced it's half year results this time

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Speaker 2: next week. Particularly interesting this week, Michael, is what happens

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Speaker 2: to stocks which miss expectations. Can you remember the gyrations

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Speaker 2: six months ago in profit season? Absolutely crazy? Will that

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Speaker 2: happen again this time round?

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Speaker 1: Those swings were enormous, It was extraordinary watching it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I do employ you to limit your use of the

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Speaker 1: term gyrations. It just.

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Speaker 2: Moving on, Michael, and moving on.

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Speaker 1: Zero is pushing heavily into AI, with chief executives so

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Speaker 1: Kinder sing Cassidy saying more than two million subscribers using

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Speaker 1: core AI features and three hundred thousand were accessing newer

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Speaker 1: gen AI tools. This thing's taking off. It is.

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Speaker 2: The tools, according to Zero, are meant to save time,

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Speaker 2: increase operational efficiency, and provide actionable insights. Zero has had

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Speaker 2: a big push into the US via it's recently acquired

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Speaker 2: Melio Emlio platform. It basically combines compout accounting with payments,

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Speaker 2: targeting small and medium sized businesses. Zero said mela I

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Speaker 2: was on track to break even in the second half

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Speaker 2: of next financial year.

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Speaker 1: Telstra and TPG Telecom, which owned the Vodafone and I

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Speaker 1: Net brands, are losing customers Sean. They're losing them to

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Speaker 1: alternative providers with better service and cheaper prices. According to

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Speaker 1: research by JP Morgan.

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Speaker 2: Morgan Analysts estimate that TPG's share of the national broadband

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Speaker 2: market has dropped from twenty three percent three years ago

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Speaker 2: to eighteen percent. It's definitely at eighteen percent. We know

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Speaker 2: that because Telsa's at thirty six point five TPG's eighty

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Speaker 2: point Why not just is twelve point four. That's according

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Speaker 2: to the A Triple C. But the point is Morgan

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Speaker 2: saying it's gone from twenty three to eighteen percent. They

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Speaker 2: surveyed five hundred and fifteen consumers found the winners were

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Speaker 2: challenger brands like Ossie Broadband and super Loop. So Izy

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Speaker 2: Broadband's got about eight point six percent of the market,

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Speaker 2: according to the HLC, super Loop has about seven point

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Speaker 2: one percent.

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Speaker 1: Turning to International News, now, Elon Musk's SpaceX has acquired

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Speaker 1: Xai for two hundred and fifty billion US dollars as

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Speaker 1: the world's richest man, combines his two largest private ventures

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Speaker 1: to pursue his ambition to win the AI race by

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Speaker 1: developing data centers in space. He has multiple ambitions, and

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Speaker 1: that one is a big.

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Speaker 2: One, Isn't it a cool one? The deal value the

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Speaker 2: combined company at one point two five trillion US dollars,

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Speaker 2: after Musk marked up the private valuation of SpaceX to

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Speaker 2: a trillion dollars. He's basically said, well, we're making a

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Speaker 2: lot more money from the Starlink satellite broadband service, therefore

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Speaker 2: it's worth a lot more. According to the FT, Executives

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Speaker 2: also confirmed that SpaceX is still aiming for initial public

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Speaker 2: offering in June. Now. The FT's previously reported that Mask

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Speaker 2: is pushing for the company to list in June because

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Speaker 2: of a rare alignment of player's Jupiter, Venus and Mercury

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Speaker 2: will be in alignment. What better time, laud and ipm.

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Speaker 1: I suspect that's the first time that Astronomy has dictated

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Speaker 1: a company listing right.

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Speaker 2: Maybe not. Actually at those valuations, the new company would

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Speaker 2: be a top ten stock on Wall Street, behind Tesla,

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Speaker 2: but just in front of Berkshire, Hathaway, XAI and rivals

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Speaker 2: including open Ai and metap spent the past two years

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Speaker 2: rushing to develop data centers and the expensive data centers

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Speaker 2: and need chips to train and power their AI models.

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Speaker 2: This week, Musk said orbital data centers would be essential

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Speaker 2: to the future of the technology. If he can bring

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Speaker 2: both the businesses together, he can kind of get the

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Speaker 2: cream of the crop in terms of talent and computing

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Speaker 2: power to achieve what his goal.

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Speaker 1: Is orbital data centers. So data centers in space is

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Speaker 1: just that is science fiction and it is happening. That's extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: TikTok in the US Shawn is now owned by American Interests,

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Speaker 1: but it has come under fire for its new privacy terms,

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Speaker 1: which allegedly suppressed videos critical of Ice and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and apparently prevents some users from sending direct messages with

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Speaker 1: the word Epstein in them.

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Speaker 2: A bunch of US investors, including Oracles Larry Ellison, bought

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Speaker 2: the platform, but users are complaining about changes already. According

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Speaker 2: to newsletter Morning Booth, the new terms of service pop

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Speaker 2: up that only had an accept option include the collection

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Speaker 2: of personal data like immigration status race. Now the previous

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Speaker 2: Chinese version had that as well, but the uproar is

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Speaker 2: over the US version demanding that information. Still, users reported

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Speaker 2: that are unable to upload videos condemning the killing of

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Speaker 2: Alex Pretty by an ICE agent in Minneapolis. But the

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Speaker 2: biggest complaint was the ability inability to use the word

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Speaker 2: Epstein in a direct message.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. Up next Fear and Greed Q

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Speaker 1: and A with amps Dianna Messina all about interest rates,

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Speaker 1: how many more hikes we might expect plenty to dig

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Speaker 1: into today, Sean. It is up next to the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform, or at Fearandgreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au, which is also where you sign

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Speaker 1: up for the incredible Fear and Greed daily news that

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Speaker 1: I've run out of superlatives for it. It's just fair enough, Michael,

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Speaker 1: It's that good. Yeah, it's in your inbox every morning

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Speaker 1: by six am, and it's entirely free. So click the

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Speaker 1: link in today's show notes and add your email address

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Speaker 1: and you'll get the next edition. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the fourth of February twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.