Speaker 1: A short time ago, the United States military began major
Speaker 1: combat operations in Iran after the largest military build up
Speaker 1: in the Middle East in more than twenty years. On
Speaker 1: the weekend, Trump's threats turned to action. He launched a
Speaker 1: war in the Middle East with the stated aim of
Speaker 1: toppling Iran's regime.
Speaker 2: When we are finished, take over your government, it will
Speaker 2: be yours to take.
Speaker 3: This will be probably your only chance for generations.
Speaker 1: And in a shocking development, Iran Supreme leader i Toola
Speaker 1: Ali Hamoney was killed in a joint US Israeli air stride.
Speaker 2: The president announcing Comedie's death in a lengthy social media post,
Speaker 2: he says, Kamedi, one of the most evil people in history,
Speaker 2: is dead.
Speaker 1: Iran has lashed out, striking Israel, Jordan, the UA, cut
Speaker 1: up Bahrain, Saudi and Kuwait.
Speaker 2: See the problem is when they intercept these missiles, some
Speaker 2: of their parts just fly off to weird places. One
Speaker 2: of them landed ten minutes away from my place, and
Speaker 2: you never know if you're out there and then something
Speaker 2: hits you.
Speaker 1: I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM today
Speaker 1: Vada Al Safe from Kuwait University. On Trump's gamble, the
Speaker 1: Middle East moments of peril and more countries in the Gulf.
Speaker 1: Pick a side. It's Monday, March too, Barda. You're in
Speaker 1: Kuwait and there's been drones and missiles come across the
Speaker 1: Gulf from Iran. What is it like where you are?
Speaker 1: What's happening.
Speaker 2: It's a second day of sirens that are activated on
Speaker 2: and off. And Wait is a small state, so the
Speaker 2: bar though they are targeted at certain facilities, whether it
Speaker 2: be the military bases or the airport for that matter,
Speaker 2: we've been hearing them all. So it's a fragile situation,
Speaker 2: you know, and it's if we can tie it to
Speaker 2: the larger event. It's a pity that our neighbor Iran
Speaker 2: has decided to strike at us when we are not
Speaker 2: the cause of the commotion. I mean, this is a
Speaker 2: war that was started by the US at Israel. And
Speaker 2: this is a war where the US was clearly told
Speaker 2: by all Gulf states that our airspaces will not be
Speaker 2: used to attack Iran and that the military bases will
Speaker 2: also not be used. So for Iran to wholly focus
Speaker 2: on the Gulf, not only is it a miscalculation, but
Speaker 2: it tells me how desperate the Iranian authorities are they're
Speaker 2: scrambling for answers, But or if we could.
Speaker 1: Talk about the really big news, of course, the death
Speaker 1: of Iran Supreme leader Hamone.
Speaker 2: I'm just being told that the US President Donald Trump
Speaker 2: has now said that Ali Hamine, Iran's supreme leader, is
Speaker 2: indeed dead.
Speaker 1: Clearly a major moment, not only for Iran but for
Speaker 1: the entire Middle East. Could you take us through how
Speaker 1: that unfolded in some of those conflicting reports that we
Speaker 1: had yesterday where we didn't even know for a while
Speaker 1: whether he'd been killed or not.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, now the Iranians confirmed his death and here
Speaker 2: was a moment the news broke on Iranian state Tvamio
Speaker 2: muriaslamiron Sh. Then look, this will come down as one
Speaker 2: of the most consequential events in the modern Middle East.
Speaker 2: This is a man that has been synonymous to the
Speaker 2: Iranian revolution. He has marched in arms with Romania and
Speaker 2: the others back in seventy nine, in prison many times
Speaker 2: during the Shahs regime, a person who has been at
Speaker 2: the helm of leadership starting from nineteen eighty nine up
Speaker 2: to the present. And why do I say there are
Speaker 2: far reaching consequences because Iran decided not to focus on
Speaker 2: its internal dynamics. It didn't focus wholly on developing its country,
Speaker 2: on building good relationships. But they invested heavily in proxy
Speaker 2: networks across the region that was colored in the first
Speaker 2: phase with a whole sense of exporting the revolution. You know,
Speaker 2: they were bragging about, you know, controlling five air capitals
Speaker 2: at one point in their heyday in the two thousands,
Speaker 2: and we're talking about Bardad, Damascus, Beirut and Yehmen lately.
Speaker 2: So this is concerning. It's not a good recipe for coexistence,
Speaker 2: and hence his disappearance will have an impact. Now, mind you,
Speaker 2: the scenarios are plenty, will we because as we know
Speaker 2: from the last attack in June twenty twenty five Famina,
Speaker 2: he has prepared a successor's list. I mean, succession planning
Speaker 2: is something that they've gotten used to, given them many
Speaker 2: deaths that have come across their leadership layers. So the question,
Speaker 2: the open question is how solid will the regime be
Speaker 2: without his presence. Will they continue on his path or
Speaker 2: will they take this as an opportunity for a reset
Speaker 2: so that they can continue and work with the US
Speaker 2: without any further damages. This is the open question that
Speaker 2: we're going to see unfold in the next hours and days.
Speaker 1: Trump's been threatening the Iranians for weeks, ever since those
Speaker 1: mass protests that we head in January.
Speaker 3: Amid reports of the mass protests and Iran turning deadly,
Speaker 3: President Frump now warning if you run shoots and violently
Speaker 3: kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States
Speaker 3: will come to the rescue, locked and loaded and ready
Speaker 3: to go.
Speaker 1: And he's called on them to rise up against the regime.
Speaker 1: Do you see any sign of that happening?
Speaker 2: Those we are mixed? I mean, I mean the regime
Speaker 2: seems to have a constituency in Iran. I mean, let's
Speaker 2: not fool ourselves that these have been around for forty
Speaker 2: seven years. They have a base. I think it's a
Speaker 2: mixed narrative in Iran. And though you know it's regime change,
Speaker 2: and you know, all these dynamics are up to the
Speaker 2: Iranian people. But I think where our eyes should go
Speaker 2: to next is the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard. They are
Speaker 2: the ones that hold the arms. They are the ones
Speaker 2: that hold the levers of the economy and various elements
Speaker 2: of society. So how are they going to go ahead?
Speaker 2: And control the scene moving forward. We've seen the Iranian
Speaker 2: regime unfortunately, unabashingly, you know, killing its own people. And
Speaker 2: I think because people's basic needs are not met Nicole.
Speaker 2: You know, when you are an oil rich country with
Speaker 2: such an expansive space, yet inflation is sky rocketing and
Speaker 2: you can't make ends meet. This is a serious question
Speaker 2: of governance and that's where they haven't been focusing. They've
Speaker 2: been focusing on other files that have brought the region
Speaker 2: into chaos. Now let me add an addendum to this,
Speaker 2: because this is important. We've been talking Iran mostly, but
Speaker 2: we cannot separate the aggression and questionable behavior of Israel
Speaker 2: from all of this. And I sit here in Kuwait City,
Speaker 2: where in the Gulf States we feel sandwiched between two belligerents,
Speaker 2: Iran and Israel, and this just has to stop. Israel
Speaker 2: has been trying to also displace its problems onto other
Speaker 2: countries where the original issue there is providing the palace
Speaker 2: sinions with the dignified living and the two state solution
Speaker 2: that the whole world has been you know, rallying behind.
Speaker 2: And why do I mention this. I mentioned this because
Speaker 2: the likes of Iran have been using this as an
Speaker 2: excuse to carry out whatever they've been carrying out. So
Speaker 2: we need to go to the root issue to try
Speaker 2: to see how actors like Iran would act after those
Speaker 2: issues are resulted.
Speaker 1: Coming up, what's it take to topple a regime? Butter
Speaker 1: if we could zoom out from Iran to the wider region.
Speaker 1: And over the last few weeks, we've had this huge
Speaker 1: US military build up in the Gulf as Washington weighs
Speaker 1: up what to do next, one of the American military's
Speaker 1: largest aircraft carriers with up to fifty fighter jets on board,
Speaker 1: has arrived in the region. The nuclear talks have also
Speaker 1: been underway, but clearly President Trump was impatient. His on
Speaker 1: voice Steve Whitkov made that pretty clear.
Speaker 2: I don't want to use the word frustrated.
Speaker 3: It's almost because he understands he's got plenty of alternatives,
Speaker 3: but it's curious.
Speaker 2: He's curious as to why they haven't.
Speaker 3: I don't want to use the word capitulated, but why
Speaker 3: they haven't capitulated?
Speaker 1: And so now the US and Israel have launched this war.
Speaker 1: Trump has said he wants regime change. Do you think
Speaker 1: that that is even possible?
Speaker 2: I mean what a turnaround for someone to have, you know,
Speaker 2: ran on an election manifesto that criticized regime change, and
Speaker 2: someone that came in and said we respect people's choices
Speaker 2: to then go full forcedly into putting this platform. I mean,
Speaker 2: look at the facts. The US has tried regime change
Speaker 2: in Afghanistan, and look at what happened the minute they
Speaker 2: pulled out. Everything went back as if we were back
Speaker 2: in two thousand and one with the Taliban back in power.
Speaker 2: They've tried it in Iraq and you ended up with
Speaker 2: a civil war, with hundreds of thousands killed and maimed
Speaker 2: and displaced, and with the rise of ISIS for a
Speaker 2: couple of years. So you don't get really regimeed change,
Speaker 2: you get regimeed chaos, and that chaos promises, unfortunately to
Speaker 2: bring bad things with it, you know. And in the
Speaker 2: case of Iran, the stakes are even higher. We're talking
Speaker 2: about a ninety plus million population, so you're talking about
Speaker 2: spillovers when it comes to not only possible refugee flows
Speaker 2: and exits, radiation leaks. We don't know where the enriched
Speaker 2: uranium is. We're talking about nuclear risks. We're talking about chaos, commotion,
Speaker 2: the possibilities of civil war. This is a multi ethnic country,
Speaker 2: so change is not the actual to be used here.
Speaker 2: I would say it as more of a chaotic change.
Speaker 2: And that's unfortunately the lesson that the US doesn't seem
Speaker 2: to have picked up, and they continue to be willing
Speaker 2: to do this on and on again with you know community,
Speaker 2: I mean, no one is helding them accountable.
Speaker 1: What really struck me on the Iranian side was that
Speaker 1: they moved very quickly to target the Gulf, really within
Speaker 1: just a few hours. What sort of targets are they hitting?
Speaker 1: And how do you think countries in the Gulf, Kuwait,
Speaker 1: the Emirates, Saudi how would they respond?
Speaker 2: I mean, look, the hitting the Gulf hasn't come as
Speaker 2: a full surprise because it has been signaled in the past.
Speaker 2: And this goes back to an old debate that we
Speaker 2: and the Iranians have had for the longest time concerning
Speaker 2: the sovereignty over US bass in the region. And if
Speaker 2: you go into international law and if you look at
Speaker 2: how people view them in normal circumstances, these are sovereign
Speaker 2: Gulf states, sovereign lands. So it's you're hitting us, You're
Speaker 2: not hading the US bases and What makes us even
Speaker 2: more interesting Nicole is it wasn't limited to such bases.
Speaker 2: I mean, look look at the news. I mean, most
Speaker 2: of the airports in the region were hit. The airport
Speaker 2: of Kuwait, of Bahrain, of Dubai. It's not a US airport.
Speaker 2: So even their rationale doesn't bode well. I think they're
Speaker 2: trying to play pressure. They think we have enough access
Speaker 2: in the US administration to change course if we get attacked.
Speaker 2: But I think they're misreading the situation.
Speaker 1: That this has become a regional war and Netnya, who's
Speaker 1: in there right behind it as well.
Speaker 2: For forty seven years, the Ayatula regime has been cooling
Speaker 2: out for death to Israel, death for the Americans.
Speaker 1: Israel's being attacked also, but there doesn't seem to be
Speaker 1: any sign that the Iranians, the Israelis, all the US
Speaker 1: are ready to back down. So what next? What's it
Speaker 1: going to take for the Middle East and for all
Speaker 1: these players to try and find a way through this
Speaker 1: and to get out of it.
Speaker 2: I mean, no one knows what's next. This is very
Speaker 2: open ended, open ended, unprecedented. We haven't been in such
Speaker 2: a situation before, even the Twelve Day War was not
Speaker 2: like that. But we can take some cues from the
Speaker 2: Twelve Day War, and they did end up freezing that
Speaker 2: conflict when they felt that some of their ammunitions and
Speaker 2: some of their capabilities have not been up to speed,
Speaker 2: namely on this very side, by the way, and that
Speaker 2: rationalizes the build up that we saw in the last
Speaker 2: few weeks. So could we get into a situation where
Speaker 2: that happens again, that's possible. Could we get into a
Speaker 2: situation in which Iran's new guard I wouldn't take capitulate,
Speaker 2: but try to come to and understand to resume the negotiations,
Speaker 2: that's also possible. Or this can continue for some time.
Speaker 2: I mean we're just in day two and that could
Speaker 2: drag for some time. And we're trying to show that
Speaker 2: this is not our war, we're not invested in it,
Speaker 2: and we've been holding this line for some time now.
Speaker 2: But if this continues, and by this I mean the unnecessary, unreasonable,
Speaker 2: irrational Iranian attacks continue on the Gulf and they escalate.
Speaker 2: If Hotmos gets closed the strait that gets twenty percent
Speaker 2: of the oil flow of the world outside, I mean
Speaker 2: things like that, plus casualties. I think if we see
Speaker 2: those elements. The Gulf has to change course and I
Speaker 2: think its choices will be you know, they need to
Speaker 2: deal with the belligerents that they're facing from Iran.
Speaker 1: But thank you so much for joining us during the
Speaker 1: war and during Ramadan.
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1: Also in the news, travelers at Australian airports have described
Speaker 1: chaotic scenes, major delays and cancelations to flights to and
Speaker 1: from the Middle East. Australians have been told not to
Speaker 1: travel to a number of Middle East countries, including Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait,
Speaker 1: Kata and the United Arab Emirates, and Australians in Iran
Speaker 1: a being advised to leave as soon as possible if
Speaker 1: it's safe to do so. Foreign Minister Pennywong says airspace
Speaker 1: closures in the region are likely to limit the Federal
Speaker 1: government's ability to organize repatriation flights for Australians stranded in
Speaker 1: the Middle East, and Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi has reiterated
Speaker 1: Australians support for the United States military action in Iran,
Speaker 1: saying US action was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. Questioned on whether the attack on the
Speaker 1: weekend was legal and if he was concerned this might
Speaker 1: further aroad the international rules based order. The Prime Minister
Speaker 1: said those judgments were for the US and those involved directly.
Speaker 1: He also stated Iatola Hamonaey's death will not be mourned.
Speaker 1: I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.