WEBVTT - Trump’s Iran war: regime change or regime chaos?

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<v Speaker 1>A short time ago, the United States military began major

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<v Speaker 1>combat operations in Iran after the largest military build up

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East in more than twenty years. On

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend, Trump's threats turned to action. He launched a

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<v Speaker 1>war in the Middle East with the stated aim of

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<v Speaker 1>toppling Iran's regime.

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<v Speaker 2>When we are finished, take over your government, it will

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<v Speaker 2>be yours to take.

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<v Speaker 3>This will be probably your only chance for generations.

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<v Speaker 1>And in a shocking development, Iran Supreme leader i Toola

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<v Speaker 1>Ali Hamoney was killed in a joint US Israeli air stride.

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<v Speaker 2>The president announcing Comedie's death in a lengthy social media post,

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<v Speaker 2>he says, Kamedi, one of the most evil people in history,

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<v Speaker 2>is dead.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran has lashed out, striking Israel, Jordan, the UA, cut

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<v Speaker 1>up Bahrain, Saudi and Kuwait.

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<v Speaker 2>See the problem is when they intercept these missiles, some

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<v Speaker 2>of their parts just fly off to weird places. One

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<v Speaker 2>of them landed ten minutes away from my place, and

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<v Speaker 2>you never know if you're out there and then something

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<v Speaker 2>hits you.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM today

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<v Speaker 1>Vada Al Safe from Kuwait University. On Trump's gamble, the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East moments of peril and more countries in the Gulf.

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<v Speaker 1>Pick a side. It's Monday, March too, Barda. You're in

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<v Speaker 1>Kuwait and there's been drones and missiles come across the

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<v Speaker 1>Gulf from Iran. What is it like where you are?

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<v Speaker 1>What's happening.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a second day of sirens that are activated on

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<v Speaker 2>and off. And Wait is a small state, so the

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<v Speaker 2>bar though they are targeted at certain facilities, whether it

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<v Speaker 2>be the military bases or the airport for that matter,

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<v Speaker 2>we've been hearing them all. So it's a fragile situation,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, and it's if we can tie it to

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<v Speaker 2>the larger event. It's a pity that our neighbor Iran

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<v Speaker 2>has decided to strike at us when we are not

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<v Speaker 2>the cause of the commotion. I mean, this is a

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<v Speaker 2>war that was started by the US at Israel. And

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<v Speaker 2>this is a war where the US was clearly told

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<v Speaker 2>by all Gulf states that our airspaces will not be

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<v Speaker 2>used to attack Iran and that the military bases will

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<v Speaker 2>also not be used. So for Iran to wholly focus

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<v Speaker 2>on the Gulf, not only is it a miscalculation, but

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<v Speaker 2>it tells me how desperate the Iranian authorities are they're

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<v Speaker 2>scrambling for answers, But or if we could.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk about the really big news, of course, the death

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<v Speaker 1>of Iran Supreme leader Hamone.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just being told that the US President Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has now said that Ali Hamine, Iran's supreme leader, is

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<v Speaker 2>indeed dead.

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<v Speaker 1>Clearly a major moment, not only for Iran but for

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<v Speaker 1>the entire Middle East. Could you take us through how

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<v Speaker 1>that unfolded in some of those conflicting reports that we

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<v Speaker 1>had yesterday where we didn't even know for a while

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<v Speaker 1>whether he'd been killed or not.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, now the Iranians confirmed his death and here

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<v Speaker 2>was a moment the news broke on Iranian state Tvamio

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<v Speaker 2>muriaslamiron Sh. Then look, this will come down as one

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<v Speaker 2>of the most consequential events in the modern Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a man that has been synonymous to the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian revolution. He has marched in arms with Romania and

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<v Speaker 2>the others back in seventy nine, in prison many times

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<v Speaker 2>during the Shahs regime, a person who has been at

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<v Speaker 2>the helm of leadership starting from nineteen eighty nine up

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<v Speaker 2>to the present. And why do I say there are

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<v Speaker 2>far reaching consequences because Iran decided not to focus on

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<v Speaker 2>its internal dynamics. It didn't focus wholly on developing its country,

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<v Speaker 2>on building good relationships. But they invested heavily in proxy

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<v Speaker 2>networks across the region that was colored in the first

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<v Speaker 2>phase with a whole sense of exporting the revolution. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>they were bragging about, you know, controlling five air capitals

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<v Speaker 2>at one point in their heyday in the two thousands,

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<v Speaker 2>and we're talking about Bardad, Damascus, Beirut and Yehmen lately.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is concerning. It's not a good recipe for coexistence,

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<v Speaker 2>and hence his disappearance will have an impact. Now, mind you,

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<v Speaker 2>the scenarios are plenty, will we because as we know

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<v Speaker 2>from the last attack in June twenty twenty five Famina,

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<v Speaker 2>he has prepared a successor's list. I mean, succession planning

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<v Speaker 2>is something that they've gotten used to, given them many

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<v Speaker 2>deaths that have come across their leadership layers. So the question,

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<v Speaker 2>the open question is how solid will the regime be

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<v Speaker 2>without his presence. Will they continue on his path or

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<v Speaker 2>will they take this as an opportunity for a reset

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<v Speaker 2>so that they can continue and work with the US

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<v Speaker 2>without any further damages. This is the open question that

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to see unfold in the next hours and days.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's been threatening the Iranians for weeks, ever since those

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<v Speaker 1>mass protests that we head in January.

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<v Speaker 3>Amid reports of the mass protests and Iran turning deadly,

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<v Speaker 3>President Frump now warning if you run shoots and violently

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<v Speaker 3>kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States

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<v Speaker 3>will come to the rescue, locked and loaded and ready

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<v Speaker 3>to go.

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<v Speaker 1>And he's called on them to rise up against the regime.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you see any sign of that happening?

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<v Speaker 2>Those we are mixed? I mean, I mean the regime

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<v Speaker 2>seems to have a constituency in Iran. I mean, let's

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<v Speaker 2>not fool ourselves that these have been around for forty

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<v Speaker 2>seven years. They have a base. I think it's a

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<v Speaker 2>mixed narrative in Iran. And though you know it's regime change,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, all these dynamics are up to the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian people. But I think where our eyes should go

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<v Speaker 2>to next is the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard. They are

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<v Speaker 2>the ones that hold the arms. They are the ones

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<v Speaker 2>that hold the levers of the economy and various elements

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<v Speaker 2>of society. So how are they going to go ahead?

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<v Speaker 2>And control the scene moving forward. We've seen the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>regime unfortunately, unabashingly, you know, killing its own people. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think because people's basic needs are not met Nicole.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, when you are an oil rich country with

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<v Speaker 2>such an expansive space, yet inflation is sky rocketing and

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<v Speaker 2>you can't make ends meet. This is a serious question

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<v Speaker 2>of governance and that's where they haven't been focusing. They've

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<v Speaker 2>been focusing on other files that have brought the region

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<v Speaker 2>into chaos. Now let me add an addendum to this,

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<v Speaker 2>because this is important. We've been talking Iran mostly, but

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<v Speaker 2>we cannot separate the aggression and questionable behavior of Israel

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<v Speaker 2>from all of this. And I sit here in Kuwait City,

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<v Speaker 2>where in the Gulf States we feel sandwiched between two belligerents,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and Israel, and this just has to stop. Israel

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<v Speaker 2>has been trying to also displace its problems onto other

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<v Speaker 2>countries where the original issue there is providing the palace

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<v Speaker 2>sinions with the dignified living and the two state solution

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<v Speaker 2>that the whole world has been you know, rallying behind.

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<v Speaker 2>And why do I mention this. I mentioned this because

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<v Speaker 2>the likes of Iran have been using this as an

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<v Speaker 2>excuse to carry out whatever they've been carrying out. So

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<v Speaker 2>we need to go to the root issue to try

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<v Speaker 2>to see how actors like Iran would act after those

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<v Speaker 2>issues are resulted.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, what's it take to topple a regime? Butter

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<v Speaker 1>if we could zoom out from Iran to the wider region.

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<v Speaker 1>And over the last few weeks, we've had this huge

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<v Speaker 1>US military build up in the Gulf as Washington weighs

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<v Speaker 1>up what to do next, one of the American military's

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<v Speaker 1>largest aircraft carriers with up to fifty fighter jets on board,

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<v Speaker 1>has arrived in the region. The nuclear talks have also

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<v Speaker 1>been underway, but clearly President Trump was impatient. His on

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<v Speaker 1>voice Steve Whitkov made that pretty clear.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to use the word frustrated.

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<v Speaker 3>It's almost because he understands he's got plenty of alternatives,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's curious.

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<v Speaker 2>He's curious as to why they haven't.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't want to use the word capitulated, but why

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<v Speaker 3>they haven't capitulated?

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<v Speaker 1>And so now the US and Israel have launched this war.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has said he wants regime change. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>that that is even possible?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean what a turnaround for someone to have, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>ran on an election manifesto that criticized regime change, and

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<v Speaker 2>someone that came in and said we respect people's choices

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<v Speaker 2>to then go full forcedly into putting this platform. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>look at the facts. The US has tried regime change

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<v Speaker 2>in Afghanistan, and look at what happened the minute they

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<v Speaker 2>pulled out. Everything went back as if we were back

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<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and one with the Taliban back in power.

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<v Speaker 2>They've tried it in Iraq and you ended up with

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<v Speaker 2>a civil war, with hundreds of thousands killed and maimed

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<v Speaker 2>and displaced, and with the rise of ISIS for a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of years. So you don't get really regimeed change,

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<v Speaker 2>you get regimeed chaos, and that chaos promises, unfortunately to

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<v Speaker 2>bring bad things with it, you know. And in the

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<v Speaker 2>case of Iran, the stakes are even higher. We're talking

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<v Speaker 2>about a ninety plus million population, so you're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>spillovers when it comes to not only possible refugee flows

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<v Speaker 2>and exits, radiation leaks. We don't know where the enriched

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<v Speaker 2>uranium is. We're talking about nuclear risks. We're talking about chaos, commotion,

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<v Speaker 2>the possibilities of civil war. This is a multi ethnic country,

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<v Speaker 2>so change is not the actual to be used here.

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<v Speaker 2>I would say it as more of a chaotic change.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's unfortunately the lesson that the US doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 2>to have picked up, and they continue to be willing

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<v Speaker 2>to do this on and on again with you know community,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, no one is helding them accountable.

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<v Speaker 1>What really struck me on the Iranian side was that

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<v Speaker 1>they moved very quickly to target the Gulf, really within

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<v Speaker 1>just a few hours. What sort of targets are they hitting?

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<v Speaker 1>And how do you think countries in the Gulf, Kuwait,

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<v Speaker 1>the Emirates, Saudi how would they respond?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, the hitting the Gulf hasn't come as

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<v Speaker 2>a full surprise because it has been signaled in the past.

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<v Speaker 2>And this goes back to an old debate that we

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<v Speaker 2>and the Iranians have had for the longest time concerning

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<v Speaker 2>the sovereignty over US bass in the region. And if

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<v Speaker 2>you go into international law and if you look at

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<v Speaker 2>how people view them in normal circumstances, these are sovereign

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<v Speaker 2>Gulf states, sovereign lands. So it's you're hitting us, You're

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<v Speaker 2>not hading the US bases and What makes us even

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<v Speaker 2>more interesting Nicole is it wasn't limited to such bases.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, look look at the news. I mean, most

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<v Speaker 2>of the airports in the region were hit. The airport

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<v Speaker 2>of Kuwait, of Bahrain, of Dubai. It's not a US airport.

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<v Speaker 2>So even their rationale doesn't bode well. I think they're

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<v Speaker 2>trying to play pressure. They think we have enough access

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<v Speaker 2>in the US administration to change course if we get attacked.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think they're misreading the situation.

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<v Speaker 1>That this has become a regional war and Netnya, who's

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<v Speaker 1>in there right behind it as well.

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<v Speaker 2>For forty seven years, the Ayatula regime has been cooling

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<v Speaker 2>out for death to Israel, death for the Americans.

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<v Speaker 1>Israel's being attacked also, but there doesn't seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>any sign that the Iranians, the Israelis, all the US

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<v Speaker 1>are ready to back down. So what next? What's it

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<v Speaker 1>going to take for the Middle East and for all

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<v Speaker 1>these players to try and find a way through this

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<v Speaker 1>and to get out of it.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, no one knows what's next. This is very

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<v Speaker 2>open ended, open ended, unprecedented. We haven't been in such

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<v Speaker 2>a situation before, even the Twelve Day War was not

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<v Speaker 2>like that. But we can take some cues from the

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<v Speaker 2>Twelve Day War, and they did end up freezing that

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<v Speaker 2>conflict when they felt that some of their ammunitions and

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<v Speaker 2>some of their capabilities have not been up to speed,

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<v Speaker 2>namely on this very side, by the way, and that

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<v Speaker 2>rationalizes the build up that we saw in the last

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<v Speaker 2>few weeks. So could we get into a situation where

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<v Speaker 2>that happens again, that's possible. Could we get into a

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<v Speaker 2>situation in which Iran's new guard I wouldn't take capitulate,

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<v Speaker 2>but try to come to and understand to resume the negotiations,

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<v Speaker 2>that's also possible. Or this can continue for some time.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean we're just in day two and that could

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<v Speaker 2>drag for some time. And we're trying to show that

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<v Speaker 2>this is not our war, we're not invested in it,

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<v Speaker 2>and we've been holding this line for some time now.

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<v Speaker 2>But if this continues, and by this I mean the unnecessary, unreasonable,

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<v Speaker 2>irrational Iranian attacks continue on the Gulf and they escalate.

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<v Speaker 2>If Hotmos gets closed the strait that gets twenty percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the oil flow of the world outside, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>things like that, plus casualties. I think if we see

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<v Speaker 2>those elements. The Gulf has to change course and I

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<v Speaker 2>think its choices will be you know, they need to

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<v Speaker 2>deal with the belligerents that they're facing from Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>But thank you so much for joining us during the

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<v Speaker 1>war and during Ramadan.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, travelers at Australian airports have described

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<v Speaker 1>chaotic scenes, major delays and cancelations to flights to and

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<v Speaker 1>from the Middle East. Australians have been told not to

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<v Speaker 1>travel to a number of Middle East countries, including Israel, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait,

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Kata and the United Arab Emirates, and Australians in Iran

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<v Speaker 1>a being advised to leave as soon as possible if

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<v Speaker 1>it's safe to do so. Foreign Minister Pennywong says airspace

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<v Speaker 1>closures in the region are likely to limit the Federal

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<v Speaker 1>government's ability to organize repatriation flights for Australians stranded in

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East, and Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi has reiterated

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<v Speaker 1>Australians support for the United States military action in Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>saying US action was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining

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<v Speaker 1>a nuclear weapon. Questioned on whether the attack on the

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<v Speaker 1>weekend was legal and if he was concerned this might

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<v Speaker 1>further aroad the international rules based order. The Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 1>said those judgments were for the US and those involved directly.

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<v Speaker 1>He also stated Iatola Hamonaey's death will not be mourned.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.