Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
Speaker 1: It's Thursday, June eleven, twenty twenty six. Taxpayers are facing
Speaker 1: a multi million dollar compensation bill for foreign born criminals
Speaker 1: who were held unlawnfully in indefinite immigration detention. That's after
Speaker 1: a fresh High Court ruling that's slammed the Commonwealth's handling
Speaker 1: of the so called NZYQ case. That's the kind of
Speaker 1: story that sends frustrated voters fleeing to the arms of
Speaker 1: One Nation, which, despite its simplistic policies and chaotic politics,
Speaker 1: is now showing up in polls as Australia's most popular party,
Speaker 1: fueled by discontent about migration and the economy and distrust
Speaker 1: of the major parties. Today, The Australian's revealing a senior
Speaker 1: Liberal figure saying the mainstream conservative parties should team up
Speaker 1: with one Nation on strategy. Is that a good idea?
Speaker 1: I'm about to ask our chief political correspondent, Greg Brown.
Speaker 1: Stay with us. Greg Brown is The Australian's chief political
Speaker 1: correspondent and I've asked him on the show to explain
Speaker 1: the thorniest question of all in Australian politics right now?
Speaker 1: What is really fueling the rise of One Nation polling
Speaker 1: from somewhere around six percent at the time of the
Speaker 1: last election to thirty one percent now going past all
Speaker 1: the other political parties in terms of primary vote. Greg
Speaker 1: what's going on?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, truly was our bombshell news poll to show
Speaker 2: that One Nation is now the most popular political party
Speaker 2: in Australia. Who would have thought even twelve months ago
Speaker 2: that that was possible. I think clearly there's been growing
Speaker 2: anxiety about politics in Australia for a while now the
Speaker 2: Bondai terror attacks or One Nation's primary vote spike massively
Speaker 2: after that, and I think the has seen more people
Speaker 2: upset with Labor, and I think what's really worrying for
Speaker 2: the Coalition is they're not willing to change their vote
Speaker 2: from Labor to the Coalition. They're going from Labor to
Speaker 2: One Nation.
Speaker 1: The majority of voters believe politics is due for a shakeup. Gee,
Speaker 1: they're in trouble. They're really in trouble, aren't They.
Speaker 3: Were polling are over Labor and they're over the Coalition.
Speaker 2: And I think unbelievably we've actually seen the coalition's primary
Speaker 2: vote come down since the budget, so that should be
Speaker 2: a sign of desperation for the Liberal Party and if
Speaker 2: it's not for people that aren't deeply worried about that,
Speaker 2: and then I'd say there's an element of delusion.
Speaker 1: It's interesting, I think to look at what Barnaby Joyce
Speaker 1: says about this. Barnaby is the former Nationals MP who
Speaker 1: defected to One Nation in December, coincidentally about the same
Speaker 1: time as their numbers started going up. But Barnaby Joyce
Speaker 1: says that the Bondai terror attack and the return of
Speaker 1: the ISIS brides from the Middle East are a big
Speaker 1: part of this story fueling Australians' concerns about how the
Speaker 1: major parties are handling things.
Speaker 2: We don't believe in multiculturalism in my nation. We believe
Speaker 2: in Australian culture.
Speaker 1: The undertone there is that there's an anxiety about migration
Speaker 1: in Australia that some voters feel that only paul In
Speaker 1: Hanson can address. What do you think about that.
Speaker 2: I'm of the view that it's all very relevant. I
Speaker 2: think you've seen people on both sides deny the other.
Speaker 2: Particularly we're seeing with the Labor Party and people from
Speaker 2: the left, they're denying that migration is part of it.
Speaker 2: They're saying it's all economic factors, and people when they're
Speaker 2: angry they're not getting ahead. They look at migrants and
Speaker 2: that's when they become angry. Where is if their own
Speaker 2: lives are going well, they wouldn't be doing that. I
Speaker 2: think that is absolutely a major factor. But I also
Speaker 2: think there is an anxiety in the community that's been
Speaker 2: bubbling for a long period of time, and now people
Speaker 2: feel fed up that they feel like multiculturalism, rightly or wrongly,
Speaker 2: they feel multiculturalism is not working for them. I personally
Speaker 2: have sympathy for the Coalition going hard on migration and
Speaker 2: things like welfare for non citizens, because you can't just
Speaker 2: look at what's going on with the community anxiety and
Speaker 2: just ignore it all. So I have sympathy for that.
Speaker 2: But equally, I think the pathway forward for the Coalition
Speaker 2: is economic credibility and real cut through, and that's what
Speaker 2: we're really struggling to see at the moment.
Speaker 1: Angus Taylor is really trying to make that connection and
Speaker 1: identify himself with that connection. In terms of his budget
Speaker 1: and reply speech, he explicitly connects did migration levels to
Speaker 1: the uplift in housing supply basically saying, you know, you
Speaker 1: can only bring in as many migrants as you have
Speaker 1: homes for, and you can only do that if you're
Speaker 1: ensuring that Australians themselves have the capacity to buy homes.
Speaker 3: Mass migration is changing Australia. For the words, the number
Speaker 3: of people coming in far exceeds the number of houses built. Consequently,
Speaker 3: the great Australian dream of home ownership is vanishing for
Speaker 3: old and new Australians alike.
Speaker 1: So why isn't that working for him?
Speaker 2: So I think there's a couple of elements to it.
Speaker 2: Some people say that if the Coalition talk about these
Speaker 2: things too much, they're talking about one nation issues and
Speaker 2: therefore it people say, well, why would I have the
Speaker 2: half baked thing when I can have the real thing.
Speaker 2: Taylor is mainly struggling for cut through. I mean he
Speaker 2: came out with a big tax policy post budget of indexation.
Speaker 2: It's actually a really complex one to explain to the electorate.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think if you spoke to a lot
Speaker 2: of punters out there about things like Bracker creep and
Speaker 2: indexation and whatnot, then I think people wild struggle to
Speaker 2: understand some of these concepts.
Speaker 3: And that's what we are proposing more homes, capping homes
Speaker 3: to capping migration to homes, and cheaper energy whilst we
Speaker 3: put Australians first. That is the plan that we've laid
Speaker 3: out for Australians.
Speaker 2: So it will really take two years to sell this
Speaker 2: major tax policy, and it feels like they kind of
Speaker 2: announced it and then it's not the first thing they
Speaker 2: talk about all the time when it needs to be.
Speaker 2: So I think that their economic sales pitch has been
Speaker 2: quite messy and now we're seeing the biggest excuses of
Speaker 2: all excuses, Claire, that I've heard in my I've been
Speaker 2: in Parliament House for nine years now. For Angus Taylor
Speaker 2: to have blamed Labor for his declining poll numbers for
Speaker 2: the Coalition's primary falling to an equal record low of
Speaker 2: eighteen percent, which is the number they used to justify
Speaker 2: rolling Susan Lee. He said, oh, well, that's just because
Speaker 2: Labor delivered a bad budget and they're viewing Labor and
Speaker 2: the Coalition is the same, so we got hit by
Speaker 2: that bad budget as well. It's not only a logical
Speaker 2: but it's really sioky and for a party of personal
Speaker 2: responsibility to be blaming your political opponent I mean one
Speaker 2: Liberal MP did mention it's like KFC blaming McDonald's for
Speaker 2: bad sales.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can imagine Anthony Albanezi enjoyed that analogy quite
Speaker 1: a lot.
Speaker 2: Ah, it was just it does really raise questions about
Speaker 2: whether Angus Taylor is in the frame of mind he
Speaker 2: needs to be in to tackle I think the greatest
Speaker 2: challenge the Liberal Party has faced. He's not a naturally
Speaker 2: charismatic politician. That doesn't rule you out of being Prime minister,
Speaker 2: but he's got to work for it. He's got to
Speaker 2: fight for it. He's got to be in the media
Speaker 2: every day, he's got to be doing far more than
Speaker 2: what he is now. He does seem to be a
Speaker 2: little bit entitled.
Speaker 1: They have on their side an absolute expert opposition leader
Speaker 1: in Tony Abbott. He was probably one of the most
Speaker 1: effective opposition leaders Australia has ever seen. Whether he was
Speaker 1: effective as Prime minister is another question. Now he's the
Speaker 1: federal President of the Liberal Party and I was intrigued
Speaker 1: greg to see that Tony Abbott, who really made it
Speaker 1: his business when he was in Parliament to identify one
Speaker 1: Nation as an existential threat to the center right parties.
Speaker 1: The mainstream center right coalition parties. He was very clear
Speaker 1: throughout his career that one nation was the enemy. In fact,
Speaker 1: he raised funds to defeat one nation separately from his
Speaker 1: own activities as opposition leader. He's now endorsing the idea though,
Speaker 1: of the coalition doing preference deals with one nation. Now
Speaker 1: that changes the game completely, doesn't it? Because the accepted
Speaker 1: wisdom in Australia is that our two party proferential voting
Speaker 1: system and effectively means that one nation can never govern
Speaker 1: and can never get the number of seats they need
Speaker 1: to get them anywhere close to the front benches. What
Speaker 1: is going on there?
Speaker 2: Well, this is highly contentious within the Liberal Party for
Speaker 2: a number of reasons. A. Some people don't feel that
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party and the Coalition should be working with
Speaker 2: one nation. That's one point. But another point is why
Speaker 2: are we telegraphing this two years out from an election?
Speaker 2: How is that a good strategy. Surely we should keep
Speaker 2: saying that we can stand on our own two feet
Speaker 2: until the very moment we decide we need to do
Speaker 2: a deal. But there are other Liberal MP's, and we
Speaker 2: have in the Australian on Thursday, Tony Passon, who is
Speaker 2: a key supporter of Angus Taylor. He is supporting the
Speaker 2: idea of one nation and the coalition discussing what candidates
Speaker 2: run where you know, who runs against labor and even
Speaker 2: getting into that sort of granular level of detail. So
Speaker 2: there definitely is a view that Abbott is a part
Speaker 2: of that reality is they need to work together to
Speaker 2: chuck labor out. But that definitely isn't unanimous and it's
Speaker 2: highly contentious.
Speaker 1: Something that the coalition parties I think have always taken
Speaker 1: comfort from is that one nation is a bit of
Speaker 1: a rabble and their policies are very simplistic. You know,
Speaker 1: so they have ideas like income splitting or opposing vaccine mandates.
Speaker 1: If let's say, hypothetically the Coalition was to form some
Speaker 1: form of new coalition with one nation, how far would
Speaker 1: those ideas be able to get? You know, would the
Speaker 1: deal involve having to do some of these things that
Speaker 1: one nation wants?
Speaker 2: Well, I guess if Paul Enhancement's popularity keeps increasing, maybe
Speaker 2: she'll have to say of how far the deal goes
Speaker 2: more than what the Liberal Party or the Nationals would.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think this is all very much to
Speaker 2: play out. And the other thing that worries me a bit,
Speaker 2: Claire from the coalition side of things is this idea
Speaker 2: that they can't bag Pauline, which is ridiculous. I mean, sure,
Speaker 2: at the moment when she is very popular, people won't
Speaker 2: like it when you criticize her. And we're not talking
Speaker 2: about criticizing her supporters all their anxieties. We're talking about
Speaker 2: criticizing her and the way she goes about things. But
Speaker 2: what you've got to do is, over time, over months
Speaker 2: and years, keep doing it, keep plugging away at it,
Speaker 2: and then eventually voters can see your points that they've
Speaker 2: got all these policies out there that haven't bothered to
Speaker 2: cost any of them. They don't really know the true
Speaker 2: impact of what they're proposing, and fundamentally they are about
Speaker 2: appealing to people's grievances rather than solutions. They're starting to
Speaker 2: get quite sensitive about this label, but they're yet to
Speaker 2: show otherwise that they have solutions to actually improve people's lives.
Speaker 1: It's interesting that idea of not attacking Pauline isn't it
Speaker 1: because Pauline. It doesn't play nice And.
Speaker 3: I felt sorry for the people of Victoria, and that's
Speaker 3: how they feel about Jasenda Allen because of what she's
Speaker 3: done to that state, no wonder they call her a witch.
Speaker 1: She is starting fights simultaneously with Jacinta Allen, the Victorian Premier,
Speaker 1: with Fatima Payman, the Senator, who she says shouldn't be
Speaker 1: sitting in parliament anyway because she's a dual citizen. She's
Speaker 1: even picked a fight with the late Tim Fisher, a
Speaker 1: venerated hero of the National Party, saying that he once
Speaker 1: said that she was a witch who should be burned
Speaker 1: at the stake. I mean, I suspect that is something
Speaker 1: that Tim Fisher's family would strongly disagree that he ever said,
Speaker 1: or maybe those whoys have been taken out of context.
Speaker 1: She has never bothered with pretending to like anyone else
Speaker 1: in politics, has she She's.
Speaker 2: Never bothered being polite to anyone else.
Speaker 3: Know.
Speaker 2: And she even had to go I listened back to
Speaker 2: a podcast she did with Carl Stefanovic at the beginning
Speaker 2: of the year, and she had to go at Anthony
Speaker 2: Alberici's mother for living in social life for as long
Speaker 2: as she did. You know, she said she should have
Speaker 2: just had it for a short period of time. So
Speaker 2: she goes even after people's mothers. But this idea that listen,
Speaker 2: I don't doubt that when they have a bit of
Speaker 2: a crack at Pauline and her policies and the way
Speaker 2: she goes about things that right now where we're sitting
Speaker 2: in June of twenty twenty six, it goes down like
Speaker 2: a lead balloon among the voters they're trying to win back.
Speaker 2: But my point is they can't just say, oh, well,
Speaker 2: we'll stop doing that, because then she gets a free run.
Speaker 2: In my view, that would actually in the long term
Speaker 2: be counterproductive. If they stick at holding her to account
Speaker 2: and that playing out poorly in the short term, I
Speaker 2: think it enables them to take bark off her, continue
Speaker 2: taking bark off her where they get to the extent
Speaker 2: that when there's an election due in less than two
Speaker 2: years now that you know the public may be more
Speaker 2: uncertain about her.
Speaker 1: Does angers Taylor have the guts to do that.
Speaker 2: It's not appearing at this stage that he's willing to
Speaker 2: go down that track. And you know, he was very
Speaker 2: supportive of Tony Abbott becoming Liberal Party president. So I
Speaker 2: haven't been able to establish this. But given that Tony
Speaker 2: Passon is saying what he's saying, and he is a
Speaker 2: big supporter of Angus Taylor. Given that Tony Abbott is
Speaker 2: saying what he's saying, I think it will be a
Speaker 2: fair assumption that Angus Taylor is at least very open
Speaker 2: to working with one nation in some sort of coordinated
Speaker 2: way to campaign against the Labor Party. So, based on
Speaker 2: the evidence that we've seen so far, you would think
Speaker 2: that that's not the route he's going down.
Speaker 1: Greg Brown, thank you very much, Thanks Claire. Greg Brown
Speaker 1: is The Australian's chief political correspondent. You can read all
Speaker 1: his reporting, plus the best of politics, anytime at the
Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au