WEBVTT - Why Howard’s battlers are turning to Hanson

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This week,

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<v Speaker 1>Pauline Hanson declared there are no good Muslims.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>You say, oh, well, there's good Muslims out there. Well,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sorry, how can you tell me.

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<v Speaker 1>There are good Muslims and renewed her corps for a

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<v Speaker 1>band on people from Gaza and other so called terror hotspots.

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<v Speaker 1>After a backlash from across the community, she has since

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<v Speaker 1>walked back her comments on Muslim Australians, but a track

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<v Speaker 1>record for stoking racial division remains intact. It's language that

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<v Speaker 1>was once politically toxic. Now it's cutting through the whole

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<v Speaker 1>generation of voters that feel they've been dudded by the

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<v Speaker 1>promise of prosperity through hard work alone. Today, director of

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<v Speaker 1>Strategy and Analytics at Redbridge Group cos Samaris on the

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<v Speaker 1>voters once known as Howard's battlers, why more of them

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<v Speaker 1>are turning to one nation and the forces reshaping Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>political center, the social fabric of democracy. It's Saturday, February

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one, Cosse, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>You wrote this week about how Howards battlers are turning

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<v Speaker 1>to one nation. Can you paint a picture for us

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<v Speaker 1>as to who they are and why they're attracted to

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<v Speaker 1>what Pauling Hanson is selling.

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<v Speaker 2>They're largely in the regions in the outer suburbs of

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<v Speaker 2>our large cities, largely in their forties, fifties, and sixties,

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<v Speaker 2>work with their hands or work by standing on their feet,

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<v Speaker 2>so to speak. If we're talking about Gen X, that

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<v Speaker 2>these are people who had their lives significantly disrupted during

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<v Speaker 2>the recession of the nineties and entered the housing market

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<v Speaker 2>at about the same time older millennials did, so, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>at the beginning of the housing boom. So overall, the

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<v Speaker 2>majority that I'm talking about here have got significant mortgages,

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<v Speaker 2>lots of mortgage stress, declining capacity to earn money because

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<v Speaker 2>of their age. And of course, these Gen x's that

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<v Speaker 2>we're talking about, they may have kids in their late

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<v Speaker 2>teens or adult kids.

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<v Speaker 4>They've got parents.

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<v Speaker 2>Now who are very much in their late seventies and eighties,

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<v Speaker 2>and above all else proportionally higher number of parents who

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<v Speaker 2>are on the pension and are not wealthy. So they've

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<v Speaker 2>got parents who are in great need, and they've got

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<v Speaker 2>children who are in great need.

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<v Speaker 1>So what can they see in the fringes that they

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<v Speaker 1>can't see in mainstream politics at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this group, you know, in their thirties and forties

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<v Speaker 2>were voting for John Howard. They thought that if I

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<v Speaker 2>worked hard, this political party promises me an economic and

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<v Speaker 2>narrative that hard work rewards aspiration.

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<v Speaker 4>How it's battlers.

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<v Speaker 2>They were very patient throughout the Abbott Morrison Turnbull error.

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<v Speaker 4>Again they are.

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<v Speaker 2>Patient leading up to the federal election with Dutton, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think the election loss and coupled with a realization

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<v Speaker 2>of the scale of Labour's win, was a straw that

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<v Speaker 2>broke the camel's.

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<v Speaker 3>Back under the alb and Easy government. We've lost in housing, immigration,

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<v Speaker 3>costs of living, this climate change bears the costs of

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<v Speaker 3>the economy. You've got so many more public servants that

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<v Speaker 3>being put on is straining the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>So the scale of the wind meant that they couldn't

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<v Speaker 1>see themselves anywhere in mainstream politics, and so they've turned

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<v Speaker 1>to one nation. I mean, does one nation actually solve

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<v Speaker 1>any of their problems for these voters though, no.

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<v Speaker 4>They don't, but that's not why they're voting for one nation.

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<v Speaker 2>And they don't care if one nation has some dodgy

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<v Speaker 2>candidates or policies that don't stand up to scrutiny.

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<v Speaker 4>This is about burning the place down.

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<v Speaker 2>This is about throwing the chessboard over and sending a

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<v Speaker 2>very clear signal to the established political parties that they're

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<v Speaker 2>done with tolerating this version of democracy. And we see

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<v Speaker 2>this writ large in the UK and other western countries

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<v Speaker 2>where these types of voters have given up on the system.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're used to this diet of the geopoly, and

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<v Speaker 2>you're very comfortable in that system, and you play the

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<v Speaker 2>game as everyone else has for decades, you're about to

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<v Speaker 2>get a bit of a shock because what worked even

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<v Speaker 2>five years ago just.

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<v Speaker 4>Won't work now.

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<v Speaker 2>And I've made this point with regards to their leadership change.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a nineteen ninety six tool being applied to a

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<v Speaker 2>new political error.

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<v Speaker 4>It just won't work.

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<v Speaker 2>And we know that what happened in Canberra with that

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<v Speaker 2>leadership change has really no bearing on what's going on

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<v Speaker 2>with this realignment in center right politics.

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<v Speaker 1>So if the coalition is bleeding votes to the right,

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<v Speaker 1>what about labor? If this is a protest vote, why

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<v Speaker 1>aren't they losing voters as well?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, here we get into the tribal nature of the

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<v Speaker 2>Australian public now, and so when we psychologically test fhotus.

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<v Speaker 4>Now, and we do that for a number of ways.

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<v Speaker 2>The main tool we use is a battery test, where

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<v Speaker 2>we will ask you ten questions and you won't know

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<v Speaker 2>that the answers will give us a very strong indication

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<v Speaker 2>as to what your values framework looks like, whether you're

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<v Speaker 2>an economic populist or whether you're attracted to right wing populism.

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<v Speaker 2>Most of Labour's base is economic populist, so they're unlikely

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<v Speaker 2>to bite down an immigration narratives. They're unlikely to blame

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<v Speaker 2>individuals or minorities for their problems, and they have problems,

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<v Speaker 2>they're more likely to blame their problems on the big

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<v Speaker 2>end of town. And of course Labour's base is not

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<v Speaker 2>fragmenting in the same way because there isn't for a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of these voters a genuine social democratic center left alternative.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't view the Greens as that. At the moment

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<v Speaker 2>one appears we'll be having the same conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's the challenge that the coalition is up against

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<v Speaker 1>here when it comes to fending off one motion in

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<v Speaker 1>the regions without losing the cities where they are really struggling.

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<v Speaker 4>They're in a really wicked vice.

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<v Speaker 2>They're losing these votes on their I flanked to one

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<v Speaker 2>nation on issues that look at the episode, as we've discussed,

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<v Speaker 2>is the economy and a lack of economic purpose and yes,

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<v Speaker 2>immigrations there it's a trigger, it's fuel on the fire,

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<v Speaker 2>so to speak.

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<v Speaker 4>Flip side.

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<v Speaker 2>If I try to track this crew and we could

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<v Speaker 2>see the Federal Coalition doing this or having discussions about this,

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<v Speaker 2>they could further alienate their position in big urban Australia,

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<v Speaker 2>which we have seen large now as a consequence of

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<v Speaker 2>the two most recent federal elections them losing seats to

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<v Speaker 2>the Tills and seats to the Labor Party. Of the

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<v Speaker 2>last eight federal seats which the Liberal Party leaders have occupied,

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<v Speaker 2>they only hold.

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<v Speaker 4>One, which is the federal seat of Cook.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything else, whether it was Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, John Howard,

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<v Speaker 2>all these seats they used to hold, they're gone to

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<v Speaker 2>other Labor, All the.

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<v Speaker 1>Tals coming up political poison. One way the Coalition seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be trying to win these voters back is to

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<v Speaker 1>tap into things like national identity and migration.

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<v Speaker 3>People are deeply concerned that they see politicians who no

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<v Speaker 3>longer seem proud of this country, who want to talk

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<v Speaker 3>down the incredible history.

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<v Speaker 1>Of this country.

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<v Speaker 3>We deserve to live in a country where everyone who

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<v Speaker 3>comes here respects our democracy, respects our freedoms, respects our values.

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<v Speaker 1>And so will that work? What do we know about

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<v Speaker 1>how that kind of rhetoric plays with voters.

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<v Speaker 2>It's poison amongst younger Australians who are economically populist so

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<v Speaker 2>to speak in terms of their values framework, absolutely toxic

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<v Speaker 2>amongst younger women in particular, and of course dynamite with

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<v Speaker 2>regards to massive diasporus, which is Indian.

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<v Speaker 4>Chinese Australians.

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<v Speaker 2>And we saw the consequences of that poisoned relationship with

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<v Speaker 2>them losing mensies been along read seats that historically they've

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<v Speaker 2>been quite quite competitive in and they are now losing.

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<v Speaker 1>And these diaspords, particularly the Indian community, actually quite conservative

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<v Speaker 1>in their politics, and yet Alberanzi seems to be holding

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<v Speaker 1>onto those diaspors quite well. It's that because the liberal

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<v Speaker 1>national brand is just so toxic.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, A really good way to describe this is that

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<v Speaker 2>these are Australians who are aspirational wealth accumulators, socially conservative,

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<v Speaker 2>believing in business. They should be Menzi's type photos right,

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<v Speaker 2>But when we speak to them, we ask them, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>you've just taken us through all these values that you hold.

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<v Speaker 2>You should be voting liberal And they go, yeah, but

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<v Speaker 2>they aren't like us. Yeah, they're voting on sectarian grounds,

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<v Speaker 2>and we know sectarian voting behavior is a lot harder

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<v Speaker 2>to break than people appreciate.

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<v Speaker 1>We also saw a coalition proposal leaked that was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>hardline and would see a ban on migrants from thirteen

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<v Speaker 1>countries so called terror hotspots, including Gaza and Somalia. Now

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<v Speaker 1>coalition members are distincting themselves from that plan. What can

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<v Speaker 1>we read.

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<v Speaker 2>Into that, because again, these two diaspers we've been talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're a Chinese Australian and you have expressed to

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<v Speaker 2>researchers over many years concerns of a heightened level of

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<v Speaker 2>political aggression coming out of the Coalition with regards to

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese Australians and China in general, most challenges, Australians will think, well,

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<v Speaker 2>when next, We'll be on that list eventually, So it's

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<v Speaker 2>not about who they've identifying right now. Everyone else is going, well,

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<v Speaker 2>am I going.

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<v Speaker 4>To be next?

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<v Speaker 2>So it's absolute political poison for them in the big cities,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly Melbourne Sydney.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're seeing this shifting political landscape where the coalition

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<v Speaker 1>is struggling to the point of almost demise and one

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<v Speaker 1>Nation is soaring. What consequences will that have for our

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<v Speaker 1>democracy and our stability in this country.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we're aren't chartered territory. We don't know what this

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<v Speaker 2>is going to look like at the ballot box. Our

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<v Speaker 2>first preview will be at the end of March South

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<v Speaker 2>Australian election. Again, some poles have been published over the

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<v Speaker 2>last few days. It gives us pretty strong indication what

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<v Speaker 2>that looks like in South Australia, where the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>will probly end up with zero seats. This pole has

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<v Speaker 2>them at fourteen percent and One Nation running second. So

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<v Speaker 2>if that trend continues, we could see at a federal

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<v Speaker 2>level one Nation winning a bunch of seats in regional Australia,

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<v Speaker 2>mainly National Party seats but also some Liberal Party seats.

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<v Speaker 2>The ferr Bi election will give us an indication there,

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<v Speaker 2>and then of course a further i would say decline

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<v Speaker 2>of the Liberal Party's position in big urban Australia. So

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<v Speaker 2>federal seat of Mitchell, which Alex Hawk holes, I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>be surprised if the Labour camp go after that the

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<v Speaker 2>next federal election.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally, because a lot of people assumed that the

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<v Speaker 1>popularity of what we're formerly fringe elements of the political

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<v Speaker 1>landscape would windole once Boomers started dying out. But it

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<v Speaker 1>seems because of Generation X in particular, we've seen hands

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<v Speaker 1>and support rise to unprecedentedly. What do you attribute that to?

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<v Speaker 1>Given that Generation X we're born into multicultural Australia is

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<v Speaker 1>the Australia that we've always known. Does their support for

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<v Speaker 1>Hanson mean that Hansonism is here to stay?

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<v Speaker 4>I would say so.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean it's very important for us to defind these

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<v Speaker 2>Gen x's who are reporting to us that they're going

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<v Speaker 2>to intent to vote for Pauling Hanson as not conservative

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<v Speaker 2>but anti establishment right and that's the difference here. They're

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<v Speaker 2>not interested in established conservative politics. That's not what drives them.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course there's thirty five percent of them in

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<v Speaker 2>our research that of Gen X that want to do this.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course there's thirty one percent who are planning to

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<v Speaker 2>vote Labor. So it is quite a polarized generation. But

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<v Speaker 2>in the middle and sandwich. Completely out of the picture

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<v Speaker 2>is the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 1>So I get to say because that there's a fair

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<v Speaker 1>degree of disestablishmentarianism going around.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely absolutely place down burn, the place down is the mindset,

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<v Speaker 2>out the month case.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media. It's

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<v Speaker 1>made by Atticus Bastow, Ariel Richards, Chris Dangate, Crystal Color,

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<v Speaker 1>Nicole Johnston, Travis Evans, Zoltanveecho and me Daniel James. Our

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<v Speaker 1>theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of

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<v Speaker 1>envelop Waria. Thanks for listening to seven Am. Have a

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<v Speaker 1>great weekend.