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Speaker 1: Earning season is in full swing, with companies reporting solid

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Speaker 1: results as the Reserve Bank repeats that rates won't change

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Speaker 1: this year. National Australia Bank horns on bad loans and

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Speaker 1: the spring selling season ears. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the nineteenth of August twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael,

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Speaker 1: Seawan The main story this morning. Almost one third of

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Speaker 1: companies on the ASX have reported their June earnings and

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Speaker 1: with results slightly better than expected, the boss has lifted,

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Speaker 1: supporting Reserve Bank confidence that the economy is still chugging along.

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Speaker 2: It's always interesting to check out what's happening on main street,

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Speaker 2: what the earnings are saying versus what the economists are saying,

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Speaker 2: and they're kind of in sync at the moment. Thus far,

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Speaker 2: there have been fewer surprisingly strong results and fewer surprisingly

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Speaker 2: weak results, least compared to normal. Consensus expectations are for

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Speaker 2: a three point six percent drop in profits for the

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Speaker 2: last financial year the energy sectors where a lot of

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Speaker 2: that will come from. Also smaller falls in mining, consumer staples,

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Speaker 2: IT and financial sectors. That's according to IMP Shane Oliver.

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Speaker 2: But there have been some strong results already JB HiFi

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Speaker 2: as an example, Commonwealth Bank was another. There's also been

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Speaker 2: signs of a slowing economy, with consumer spending and media

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Speaker 2: companies demonstrating weakness. Also, the online property players Domain and

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Speaker 2: Ria have reported higher levels of listings, which might reflect

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Speaker 2: housing distress, while the Commonwealth Bank national Australia Bank both

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Speaker 2: reported a jump in loan areas. Nothing too serious, but

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Speaker 2: certainly worthy of a note. There's still a bit of

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Speaker 2: oof in the economy there. I think that's the bottom

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Speaker 2: line here and the Reserve Bank that's a technical term oomf.

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Speaker 1: Between oomph and still chugging along. You're really kind of

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Speaker 1: redefining economics.

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Speaker 2: You know. I think economics is created by a bunch

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Speaker 2: of people using jargon that no one understands. So let's

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Speaker 2: have a little campaign here up chugging along it really

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Speaker 2: is there is over Bank thinks that as well. On Friday,

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Speaker 2: Governor Michelle Bullet repeated that interest rates are not going

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Speaker 2: to rise or fall anytime soon, saying current rate settings

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Speaker 2: appeared likely to bring inflation down to a manageable level.

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Speaker 2: She said it's premature to think about rate cuts because

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Speaker 2: the services inflation remains too high. While she understands many

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Speaker 2: households wou'd like to see her fallen interest rates, she

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Speaker 2: says the alternative of higher inflation for longer is much much.

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Speaker 1: Worse, which is a fairly consistent kind of narrative. She's

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Speaker 1: been saying that for a very long time now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the earnings results are more or

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Speaker 2: less supporting what she's saying.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so the local market sean is doing well, clearly,

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Speaker 1: what about overseas it's.

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Speaker 2: Been Last week was a cracking week for equities. In fact,

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Speaker 2: for many markets, the best week since November last year.

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Speaker 2: Global stocks rebounded, volatility eased, investors just became a bit

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Speaker 2: more confident that the US isn't heading for a recession.

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Speaker 2: All streets. SMP five hundred index broke a four week

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Speaker 2: losing streak to close the week up nearly four percent.

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Speaker 2: The gains left the blue chip benchmark just two percent

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Speaker 2: below its record high, which was reached a month ago.

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Speaker 2: Japanese stocks, which really bore the brunt of the global

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Speaker 2: sell off at the start of August, surged three percent

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Speaker 2: on Friday, alone for the week last week, they are

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Speaker 2: up eight percent or these stocks Europe six hundred the

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Speaker 2: top six hundred stocks in Europe close the week two

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Speaker 2: point four percent higher. The MISKY World Index of Global

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Speaker 2: Developed Market Stocks also had its best week since early November.

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Speaker 2: Investors basically in our confident that the global economy is

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Speaker 2: coming in for a soft landing, and particularly the US,

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Speaker 2: no recession, just weak growth, and that would actually be

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Speaker 2: the best outcome possible from higher interstrates.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I know, we do our bonus episode of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Ask Fear and Greed. It's called every Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and Thursday where listeners are to ask any question of

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Speaker 1: you at all and you'll do your best to answer it.

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Speaker 1: I'm just going to ask you a little spontaneous, impromptu one.

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Speaker 1: The MISKY World Index of Global Developed Market Stocks. What

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Speaker 1: is that? What is it like?

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Speaker 2: It's so miski is I'm going to get the acronym wrong,

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Speaker 2: so I'm not even going to try it. It's kind

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Speaker 2: of the organization that manages to click to all the

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Speaker 2: data on a bunch of stocks and says this is

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Speaker 2: what's happening now. The MISKY World Index of Global Developed

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Speaker 2: Market stocks is exactly as it says, global developed market stocks.

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Speaker 2: I think UK, think US, I think Australia, think New

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Speaker 2: Zealand thinks, a bunch of places in Europe. Not so

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Speaker 2: much the emerging economies China, Latin America. Those economies aren't

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Speaker 2: in it. So it's just to develop, put all the

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Speaker 2: stocks together, work out now where they're going up and down,

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Speaker 2: and you come up with the Misky World Index.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so it is essentially a full global, a representative

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Speaker 1: global index.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, rather than the AX, it's the equivalent for developed nations.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, there we go learn something. Then, if

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Speaker 1: you have your own question for Sean, feel free to

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Speaker 1: send it on through via the website forearanngreed dot com.

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Speaker 1: Today you're via any of our social media platforms. Shawn.

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Speaker 1: After the show, you've got an interview coming up with

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Speaker 1: Ben Gilbert from Jardin Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I sure do. Ben is talking to us about

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Speaker 2: how some of the big stocks have gone, particularly wealth.

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Speaker 2: We talked about that, but some of the ones coming up,

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Speaker 2: and then we also go into stocks like Dominoes and

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Speaker 2: the travel sector, and just given the timing where we

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Speaker 2: are in earning season, it's a fantastic chat and Ben

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Speaker 2: knows so much and is a great communicator, so it's

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Speaker 2: well worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Dan, it's coming up after the show. Now

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Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about local markets. Just quickly on

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Speaker 1: the numbers, how did things finish up? On Friday?

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Speaker 2: The SMPASX two hundred finished up one point three percent,

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Speaker 2: very good day, to seven nine hundred and seventy one points,

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Speaker 2: led higher by energy and materials companies. The financials and

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Speaker 2: techtocs did pretty well also, It's been six sessions of

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Speaker 2: gains in a row. Pretty good. Beachmarks up two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent last week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not bad at all now globally thanks to blue

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Speaker 1: Chick Communication, the experts helping financial services companies market communicate

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Speaker 1: and grows a blue chip communication dot com dot Are

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Speaker 1: you you mentioned equity markets? What else is happening on

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Speaker 1: international markets?

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Speaker 2: Gold gold goals had a great run, hitting a new

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Speaker 2: record high of two thousand, five hundred US dollars per

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Speaker 2: ounce over the weekend. With so much uncertainty out there,

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Speaker 2: investors want to put some of their money in safe

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Speaker 2: haven assets, and gold is as safe as it comes.

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Speaker 2: It also helps and investors expect rate cuts in the

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Speaker 2: US next month. Gold tends to do well when rates

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Speaker 2: are falling. Goal's now up twenty percent this year. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: Brent Cruz trading under eighty US dollars a barrel. We're

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Speaker 2: experiencing some of that benefit at the petrol pub. Have

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Speaker 2: you been. Did you get petrol on the weekend?

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Speaker 1: Michael No, No, So that would make sense if it's

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Speaker 1: falling at the moment.

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Speaker 2: If you would have missed, that'd probably higher late in

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Speaker 2: the later in the day when you go, but very

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Speaker 2: very affordable petrol. At the moment, I'm always trading around

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Speaker 2: ninety seven US dollars a ton. It hasn't consistently been

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Speaker 2: below the ninety seven dollars level in about four years now.

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Speaker 2: We can't say it's consistently dipped late last week iron

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Speaker 2: ore prices, but if it stays here, it really will

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Speaker 2: be underforming the previous four years now the period before

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Speaker 2: that it was always under this level. I suppose we

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Speaker 2: need to keep that in mind. The point of this

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Speaker 2: is that the weakness will have flow on effects for

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Speaker 2: the federal budget. If iron ore remains at this level

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Speaker 2: or even lower, it's very hard to see the government

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Speaker 2: announcing a surplus anytime soon. And also the Aussie dollars

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Speaker 2: up a bit. That's on the back of all these

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Speaker 2: expectations of US rates falling and Aussie rates staying the same.

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Speaker 2: It's training just under sixty seven US sets.

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Speaker 1: It is extraordinary, isn't it to think about the importance

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Speaker 1: of iron ore for Australia, that that dip in prices

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Speaker 1: has such a flow on effect to the Australian budget,

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Speaker 1: to the Australian economy, and then to the federal budget.

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Speaker 1: That that is just one commodity, albeit a very, very

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Speaker 1: kind of valuable one for Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the government earns taxes generically. I say that

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Speaker 2: taxes from iron ore exports because you know, company tax

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Speaker 2: rates and royalties and things like that they have priced

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Speaker 2: in the federal government. I think it's like seventy dollars

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Speaker 2: a ton. So when it's higher than that, it just

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Speaker 2: means that they've underestimated what they'll get in tax revenue

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Speaker 2: from iron ore. Now, ninety seven is still a long

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Speaker 2: way above seventy, but you know, at one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty they were really reeling it in and that's kind

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Speaker 2: of probably the most important reason why we've had two

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Speaker 2: budget surpluses in a row.

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Speaker 1: There you go, all right, we've got a bit to cover, Sean.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean. National Australia Bank has warned

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Speaker 1: that interest rates and persistent inflation are hurting customers, with

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Speaker 1: delinquent loans rising in the June quarter.

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Speaker 2: Yes. In its June quarter update, the country's second largest

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Speaker 2: banks had non performing loans had risen to one point

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Speaker 2: three one percent of the book compared to one point

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Speaker 2: two percent at thirty June. Doesn't sound like much, but

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Speaker 2: it's a ten percent increase that is significant. It reflects

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Speaker 2: a continued broad based deterioration in business and private banking,

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Speaker 2: according to NAB, combined with higher rears for the Australian

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Speaker 2: mortgage portfolio. Chief executive Andrew Ervine said he was unsurprised

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Speaker 2: by the increase and the bank had set money aside

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Speaker 2: for it, adding it showed that the economic environment is

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Speaker 2: challenging for customers. National Australian Bank, which is a September

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Speaker 2: thirty balance state, reported a third quarter profit of one

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Speaker 2: point seventy five billion dollars, which was flat. The lender

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Speaker 2: is growing its mortgage book slower than its competitors, and

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Speaker 2: has been unseated as a number three mortgage bank by

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Speaker 2: ain Z because of course it now owns un Cork Bank.

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Speaker 2: NAB's share price finished one point six percent higher on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned at the top of the show that

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Speaker 1: the spring selling season is almost upon us and the

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Speaker 1: number of auctions is picking up, with preliminary clearance rates

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Speaker 1: almost hitting seventy one percent.

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Speaker 2: I like this time of year. We're coming to the

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Speaker 2: end of winter, that's good earning season is happening. We're

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Speaker 2: about to get into a lot of well, the spring

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Speaker 2: selling season. There are a lot of people who make

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Speaker 2: or break their year in the spring selling season. I

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Speaker 2: always remembering newspapers land, if we had a good September,

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Speaker 2: October November, then you're going to have a great financial year.

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Speaker 2: But if you had a bad September, October November, you

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Speaker 2: can never catch up. And that's because all these people

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Speaker 2: were putting ads in for property sales, particularly commercial. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: I digress anyway, The number of auctions over the past

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Speaker 2: week was just short of two thousand, the highest number

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Speaker 2: since June, with the jumper in the overall preluminantly. Clearance

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Speaker 2: rate being driven by Sydney, which came in just under

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Speaker 2: seventy five percent. According to core Logic. Melbourne's clearance rate

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Speaker 2: came in at just over sixty seven percent, while among

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Speaker 2: the smaller capitals, Adelaide led the way at eighty four percent.

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Speaker 2: Brisbane was sixty three percent. But it's really sort of

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Speaker 2: pre season with the number of houses going up for

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Speaker 2: sale rising next week and then the following week, and

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Speaker 2: then once we get into September October we'll really know

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Speaker 2: what's going on in the market. Core Logic figures show

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Speaker 2: that the number of new listings is tracking high out

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Speaker 2: than last year. It's about eleven percent above the five

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Speaker 2: year average. This comes back to the idea that perhaps

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a buyers market in the spring

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Speaker 2: selling season rather than a sellers Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We had a great chat last week, didn't we, to

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Speaker 1: Nicola Powell from Domain who was talking about the fact that, yes,

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Speaker 1: this looks like it could be the best season for

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Speaker 1: buyers at least a number of years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, it's really interesting.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well worth going back and having a listen to

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Speaker 1: that one. Now. Sewan asx Limited, the organization that runs

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Speaker 1: these Securities Exchange reported a slight fall in profit on

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Speaker 1: Friday on the back of higher regulatory expenses.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So remember the AX last week got hit with

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Speaker 2: a federal court case brought by the Australian Securities and

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Speaker 2: Investments Commission ASK about alleged misleading statements over the replacement

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Speaker 2: of its chess system. So the chess system, along with

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Speaker 2: updates to core systems and the need for more staff

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Speaker 2: to address regulatory demands, is really putting press on the

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Speaker 2: exchanges ASX Limiteds bottom line. Chief executive Helen Loftus said

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Speaker 2: the AX was carefully reviewing and considering the allegations from

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Speaker 2: ASK from last week, while remaining committed to taking AX forward.

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Speaker 2: She said the markets and data businesses had increased revenue

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Speaker 2: while listing's income had fallen oughms Lofthouse said there were

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Speaker 2: science of return in IPO activity. She used the Goodmany

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Speaker 2: Gomez as an example. Asex's share price finished flat.

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Speaker 1: Domino's Pizza Sean has found a new boss of its

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Speaker 1: local operations and it's the CEO. Sister.

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Speaker 2: Hmm. It does make you wonder, but she does come

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Speaker 2: with some pretty decent credentials. Kerry Hayman is her name.

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Speaker 2: Sister of Don May, will take over the Australia and

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Speaker 2: New Zealand part of the business. Mister May had been

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Speaker 2: living in the US before moving home in the middle

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Speaker 2: of last year to help run the struggling local operations.

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Speaker 2: Now he's heading back to look after the overseas part

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Speaker 2: of the group, which has been having its own struggles,

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Speaker 2: particularly in Japan and Frances Hayman is certainly known novice.

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Speaker 2: She has spent thirty six years in the business, initially

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Speaker 2: working for her brother when he was a store manager.

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Speaker 2: Since its peak in twenty twenty one, when COVID restrictions

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Speaker 2: were encouraging people to order pizza, Domino's share price has

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Speaker 2: gone from about one hundred and sixty bucks a share

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Speaker 2: to about thirty three.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty impressive to have spent thirty six years within

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Speaker 1: the business. Yeah, God, she would have.

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Speaker 2: To know it well, Yeah, yeah Itailian Don made the

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Speaker 2: CEO obviously the same. It's yeah, pretty incredible.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, great depth of knowledge. Sean's speaking of knowledge. Here's

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Speaker 1: a good trivia question. I don't even know if it's

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Speaker 1: a trivia question as much because I'm going to tell

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Speaker 1: you the answer. The best investment class over the past

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Speaker 1: thirty years is at local shares, international shares or bonds.

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Speaker 1: The answer not even giving you a chance to answer it,

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Speaker 1: The answer is Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: An investor who put ten thousand dollars in the s

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred on July one, nineteen ninety four

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Speaker 2: would have earned two hundred and thirty seven thousand by

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Speaker 2: June thirty this year, according to analysis by Vanguard Australia

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Speaker 2: for the Financial Review. That's an annual return of eleven

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Speaker 2: point one percent compound, that is, and a total of

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Speaker 2: more than two thousand, two hundred percent over the whole

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Speaker 2: time period. The same amount invested in the SMP ASEX

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Speaker 2: All Ordinaries Index in Australia would have grown to one

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty five thousands. And remember it's ten thousand

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Speaker 2: in two thirty seven thousand out on the SMP five

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Speaker 2: hundred locally the SMP All Lords one thirty five thousand out.

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Speaker 2: That makes Australian shares the second best performer over thirty years.

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Speaker 2: Plenty has gone on in that time, from the Asian

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Speaker 2: Economic crisis, dot com boom and bus terror tax GFCS,

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Speaker 2: deck crises, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, COVID nineteen. Of course,

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Speaker 2: next best on the list was international shares. Interesting that

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Speaker 2: the AX shares outperformed international shares, then Australian listed property,

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Speaker 2: then bonds and then cash. All assets outperformed inflation, which

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Speaker 2: you would.

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Speaker 1: Want them to sean. We've already covered a few different results,

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Speaker 1: but there are a bunch of other earnings that we

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Speaker 1: should talk about. Online Property Group Domain posted a sixty

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Speaker 1: thre three percent jump in that profit.

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Speaker 2: That was built on an eighteen percent rise in average

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Speaker 2: revenue per listing and growth in its unique audience. The

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Speaker 2: number of listings on Domain was up four percent. During July,

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Speaker 2: the group declared a final dividend of four cents of share,

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Speaker 2: taking four year payout to about six cents a share,

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Speaker 2: flat on the prior year. Mcore, the world's largest consumer

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Speaker 2: packaging company, says there are some early signs of a

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Speaker 2: small upturn in demand from customers as a de stocking

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Speaker 2: trend in inventry comes to an end. Basically, people rend

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Speaker 2: down their stock, therefore they didn't need the packaging that

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Speaker 2: went around all the goods that they were buying. Mcore

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Speaker 2: runs two hundred and ten packaging plants in forty three

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Speaker 2: countries making pouches, wraps, and containers for food, beverage and

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Speaker 2: healthcare customers. The de stocking phenomenon had cut its bottom

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Speaker 2: line by twenty seven percent. Last Financial Gem finally one

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Speaker 2: definitely worth a mention. GQG Partners most of us doate

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Speaker 2: know much about. GQG Partners for Lauderdale Based reported a

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Speaker 2: surge in funds under management in the first half of

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Speaker 2: this year, reflecting strong investment performance. Inflows jumped by nearly

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Speaker 2: seventeen billion dollars and the company's share price is up

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Speaker 2: more than sixty percent this year.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now, Sean Carmla Harris fronts

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Speaker 1: the Democratic National Convention this week, effectively introducing her to

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Speaker 1: millions of voters who haven't been engaged in the race

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Speaker 1: for president yet.

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Speaker 2: It's eighty days till election day, and most of the

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Speaker 2: mss Harris's public statements so far have been focused on

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Speaker 2: the personality fight between her and Donald Trump. Over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: she did start releasing policies She won crackdown on price gouging.

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Speaker 2: Another was about subsidies to burst housing supply. Both received

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Speaker 2: a mixed response. Is probably the best way of putting it.

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Speaker 2: The convention this week will very much set the tone

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Speaker 2: for whether the election is actually more about personality where

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Speaker 2: Carmala Harris is actually doing pretty well, or policy and

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Speaker 2: the Republicans tend to hold their ground when it does

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Speaker 2: come to policy. President Biden will give a major speak

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, our time, in what will be a symbolic

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Speaker 2: handover of the Democratic nomination to the vice president. Once

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Speaker 2: this is done, we officially have the two candidates in place,

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Speaker 2: and it's full speed ahead till early November.

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Speaker 1: Then away we go. As if it hasn't already felt

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Speaker 1: like that so far, Sean, hasn't it? Just it's been

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Speaker 1: such theater to watch such to the site, such theatre

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Speaker 1: makes me sound so cultured, doesn't it. Speaking of culture,

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Speaker 1: X has vowed to close in Brazil Sean over what

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Speaker 1: it alleges a censorship, as owner Elon Musk ramps up

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Speaker 1: his political activism.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it all sounds very familiar. In a post on X,

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Speaker 2: the social media company alleged that a judge threatened its

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Speaker 2: legal representative in Brazil with arrest for not complying with

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Speaker 2: a secret order to take down certain accounts. A letter

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Speaker 2: attached to the post, which X said was the court

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Speaker 2: order instructs the individual to implement the measures within twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours or risk a fine and imprisonment. The court

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Speaker 2: said neither nor the judge would comment on the matter,

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Speaker 2: but X said as a result, to protect the safety

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Speaker 2: of staff, it will close its operations in Brazil, effective

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Speaker 2: immediately now. MASK, a self declared free speech absolutist, has

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Speaker 2: increasingly sided with right wing politicians globally over this year,

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Speaker 2: throwing his support behind Donald Trump, championing Argentina's populist leader Harvemlay,

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Speaker 2: and according to The Financial Times, he recently attacked the

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Speaker 2: UK government for its handling of anti immigration writing. He's

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Speaker 2: also traded barbs with Venezuela President Nicholas Maduro, resulting in

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Speaker 2: the platform being blocked in that country for ten days now.

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Speaker 2: We had this uproar a few months ago after a

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Speaker 2: stabbing in a church in Australia. It's very interesting just

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Speaker 2: to see Elon Musk taking on governments around the world. Really.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now up next Sean is fear and Greed the

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Speaker 1: week ahead, and it's a relatively quiet week. But I

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Speaker 1: think our resident economist Stephen could call this actually needs

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Speaker 1: a quiet week after the flurry of economic data releases

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Speaker 1: last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we talk a lot about last week and

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Speaker 2: where we stand, just as Steven in the next couple

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Speaker 2: of days jets off overseas in fact, so he's pretty

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Speaker 2: excited about that. But he's even more excited about things

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Speaker 2: like what Andrew Howe's at the Deputy Serve Bank Governor

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Speaker 2: said about economists, about what Michelle Bullock said about interest rates.

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Speaker 2: Definitely worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a great explainer of all of these things.

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Speaker 1: Also a great explainer. Ben Gilbert from jardin Australia, who

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Speaker 1: is your guest today on the Fear and Greed Daily Interview?

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Speaker 2: That's right, we nominate a few stocks, so well, he

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Speaker 2: nominates a few stocks and we talk about their prospects,

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Speaker 2: including you know, Domino's, some of the travel companies, and

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Speaker 2: a bunch of retailers in fact, JB Hihi for example.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So two good things to have a listen to,

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Speaker 1: both coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on

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Speaker 1: your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com tod au.

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Speaker 1: And a quick reminder to sign up for the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed newsletter coming out on Wednesday. You do that

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Speaker 1: at the website as well. Do it today and you

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Speaker 1: don't have to think about it ever. Again. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Monday, the

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Speaker 1: nineteenth of August twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast to please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that wasphere

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Speaker 1: and greed. Have a great day.