1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:01,640 Speaker 1: This is what the Flux. 2 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 2: I'm Brett and I'm Justin and Monday, this seventeenth February, 3 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 2: FLUXPAM Tomorrow is the big day. 4 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: The RBA will be making its big announcement on the 5 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: cash rate. Get this one. Seventy three percent of experts 6 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: surveyed by Finder are predicting a cash rate cut, including 7 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: all four of the big four banks. If you don't mind, 8 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: could save us one hundreds, possibly even thousands fee man. 9 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 2: And speaking of which, we are very excited. We have 10 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: a big feature in the Flex app tomorrow doing a 11 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: big deep dive on the RBA's decision. If it goes down, 12 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 2: we'll explore why. If it stayed the same, we'll also 13 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: do a deep dive on that. To make sure to 14 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 2: check out the Flux app for all your insights on 15 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: the big cash rate decision. 16 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: Three insightful stories today Jasi Boy, Let's do it for 17 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: our first temple and Webster has seen it share price 18 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 1: fly to an all time high after its revenue jump 19 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: twenty four percent off the back of bathroom fixtures and couches. 20 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: Making the people wear couches online without sitting on them. 21 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 2: Absolutely not for me. So what is going on here. 22 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: Well, Jessie Boy. Temple and Webster was founded in twenty 23 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: eleven and listed on the ASX in twenty fifteen. 24 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: And it was a pretty chopy few years for them. 25 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: Their share price dropped nearly seventy five percent in their 26 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: first three months of listing. 27 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: But Temple and Webster has weathered the storm since then 28 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: and grown to become the largest online furniture retailer in Australia. 29 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 2: In fact, they made it sells more than two hundred 30 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:18,839 Speaker 2: thousand products. 31 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: Now, Temple and Webster have announced that their sales have 32 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: risen by twenty four percent for the past six. 33 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 2: Months, largely thanks to a big increase in purchases of 34 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: couches and of course those bathroom fixtures you always talk about. 35 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: Yep, that's me. And as a result, Temple and Webster's 36 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: share price has jumped more than fifty percent for the 37 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: last twelve months. 38 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: And the man, of course, that's thanks to the increasing sales, 39 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 2: but more importantly it's thanks to their increase in profit margin. 40 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: Oh you went there, juzzy voice. I'm wondering what is 41 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 1: the key learning? 42 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: A profit margin is how much profit a company keeps 43 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 2: after covering all its costs. 44 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: And in the retail industry, profit margins are notoriously tight. 45 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 2: Like supermarkets that often just make a few cents on 46 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 2: every dollar. 47 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: And Temple and Webster pulled off a profit mark or 48 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: four point two percent in the last six month. 49 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 2: Which is way above their expected margin of one to 50 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 2: three percent. 51 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: And growing margin means they're not just selling more stuff, 52 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: they're making more money from what they sell. 53 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: That might be cutting costs out of their goods. 54 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: It might be getting more efficient with something like AI 55 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: for their customer service as they claim to be doing. 56 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 2: Or charging higher prices without losing customers. 57 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: And in a sector where margins are often raiser thin, 58 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: even small improvements can become significant gains. 59 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 2: Yeap. For our second story, seven West Media has seen 60 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 2: its worst ever half year results as it tries to 61 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 2: transition away from its free to air TV and newspapers 62 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 2: traditional media companies in a world of hurt right now, 63 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: tell me more? Okay? So seven West Media is the 64 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 2: company behind the seven network as well as the West 65 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 2: Australian newspaper group. 66 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: Yep, we're talking home and away my kitchen rules can't 67 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: forget better homes and gardens. 68 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 2: But then, despite these banger shows. Seven West Media has 69 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 2: struggled over the past twelve months. 70 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: That's because of a major softening of the TV advertising 71 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: market this year. 72 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 2: Yeah. As a result, seven West Media saw their net 73 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 2: profit drop sixty eight percent to just under eighteen million 74 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 2: dollars for the six months to December thirty one. 75 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: Don't forget the revenue fell by more than six percent. 76 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: But the man, there was a little peep, a little 77 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 2: squizz of good news. 78 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: Oh what little nugget do you have for me? Does you? Boy? 79 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 2: Well? Seven increased its AD share to nearly forty four 80 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,519 Speaker 2: percent of the whole TV ad market. 81 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: The problem is that this is a growing share of 82 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: a declining market. 83 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 2: But despite all of this, seven West media share price 84 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: actually jumped because it's focus on competing in the BVOD space. 85 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: Interesting, So what is the key learning here? 86 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: Broadcaster Video on Demand or b VOD is the name 87 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: of the service that allows viewers to access TV content 88 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: from traditional broadcasters online. 89 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: We'd be talking seven plus nine now ten play sps 90 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: on demand, ABC iView are. 91 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: You rilling them all off? B Man Expert and BVOD 92 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: is fast becoming some of the hottest property in the 93 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 2: AUSSI ADS market. 94 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: Firstly, viewers love it because it's free, unlike streaming service rivals. 95 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: Secondly, it means you don't need to be in front 96 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 2: of your TV at seven pm sharp to catch Irene 97 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 2: on Home and. 98 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: Away Jazi Boys Irene still going around, I believe so. 99 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: And Thirdly, advertisers love it because it's a cheaper way 100 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: to target your audience with much better analytics and be man. 101 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: It's fair to say that seven West Media and its 102 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 2: competitors are investing heavily in BVOD for the future for 103 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 2: good reason. 104 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,919 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, TV revenue was down nine and 105 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: a half percent year on. 106 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: Year, whereas in the first half of twenty twenty four 107 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 2: BVOD revenue jump nearly fourteen. 108 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: Percent and with nearly fourteen million b VOD viewers on 109 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,799 Speaker 1: seven plus, this is becoming a key part of seven 110 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: West story. For our third and final story, Treasury Wine Estates, 111 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: the wine giant has taken its lower priced wine brands 112 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: off the sale slash divestment market after failing to find 113 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: a buyer. 114 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: Talk about a little one eighty year b man. So 115 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: what is going on? 116 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: Treasury Wine Estates is the ASX listed wine maker behind 117 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: some big brands that are sold around the world. 118 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 2: We'd be talking Squealing Pig, Nineteen Crimes, pepper Jack, but 119 00:04:58,200 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 2: jazz Boy. 120 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: You cannot leave out Treasury's Golden Goose. It's cash cow, 121 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: it's gravy train, and it's the biggest money spinner. I'm 122 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: talking penfolds. 123 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 2: Very true. But be man, let me tell you one thing. 124 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 2: They also own a heap of cheaper brands like Wolf Blast, Linderman's, 125 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 2: Yellow Glen, and Blossom Hill, as well. 126 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: Cheap Alert and Juzzy Boy. In August last year, Treasury 127 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: announced plans to sell the lower priced brand portfolio. 128 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 2: That's because interest in cheap wine has been declining and 129 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: the margins are pretty thin. 130 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: But now Treasury has announced it won't be selling the 131 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 1: cheap brands anymore. 132 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: And that's because it couldn't find a buyer at the 133 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 2: price they wanted. 134 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: Apparently they only received low ball offers. 135 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 2: So now they're only up to it and accepting that 136 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,679 Speaker 2: it's their own responsibility to maintain these brands. 137 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 1: But given these brands aren't part of the broader growth story, 138 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: you've got to imagine these brands will just continue to 139 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: decline further and further and further. 140 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 2: So true, So what is the key learning here? 141 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: A failed sale can be worse than no sale at all. 142 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, announcing that a brand or a business is up 143 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 2: for sale only to get zero decent offers can be 144 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 2: a pretty bad look. 145 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: Makes people wonder what's wrong with that asset. It can 146 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: spook investers as well, and just boy, it can even 147 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: leave employees and customers feeling a little uneasy about the 148 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: future of the company or those brands. 149 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 2: In fact, be Man Treasuries already written down the value 150 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 2: of these brands on their books by three hundred and 151 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 2: fifty four. 152 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: Million dollars and still could not find a buyer and 153 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: be Man. 154 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 2: Because of these potentially negative impacts, companies often prefer to 155 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 2: negotiate sales confidentially and. 156 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: Only make public announcements once a deal is done. 157 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: But now Treasury Win needs to get back to work 158 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 2: with these underperforming brands and hope they can sell a 159 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: lot of Blossom Hill. 160 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 1: See. 161 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 2: Plus, we absolutely love having you listening to us on 162 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 2: the pod every single week, and if you're injuring the 163 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 2: pod as well, we have one big favor to ask you. 164 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 2: You can scroll up and hit subscribe or follow on 165 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 2: your favorite podcast player. It it goes a long way 166 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: to help us continue building What the Flux. 167 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and we'll see you on Wednesday.