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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigall

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Speaker 1: people of the Euran Nation. Hello and welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. It is the big one,

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Speaker 1: the final show before the election, which we of course

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Speaker 1: have already predicted the outcome of We've had Sarah Harris

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Speaker 1: reading the stars and telling us what the cosmos is

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Speaker 1: saying about the election result. We've had the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Australia, Anthony Alberanzi himself come on and talk about

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Speaker 1: where the country is headed, what is going to happen

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Speaker 1: polling day, and soon we will have the greatest authority

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Speaker 1: of them all. Timmy g Tim Gleason, veteran campaigner for

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Speaker 1: the ALP veteran strategist. He's been doing elections for about

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Speaker 1: twenty five years, state and federal. He correctly predicted that

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Speaker 1: Trump would win the US election when a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of people were saying there was no possible way. So

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Speaker 1: he is a guru. He rides the kind of astral

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Speaker 1: planes of political knowledge, and we will find out exactly

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Speaker 1: where the Labor Party and the coalition are going to

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Speaker 1: land after election date. I want to talk about what

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Speaker 1: happened on Anzac Day, and how that feeds into not

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Speaker 1: just the election, but also in Australia, who we are

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Speaker 1: as a nation and the sort of stuff that we

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Speaker 1: are prepared to tolerate or explain away in this country. Now,

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Speaker 1: I am the last person in the world to get

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Speaker 1: outraged about anything. I am absolute, fearless advocate for free speech.

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Speaker 1: This has made a whole bunch of Suoki little triggered

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Speaker 1: lefties hate me, and quite frankly, it's also now made

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Speaker 1: a whole lot of suki little triggered writes now hate

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Speaker 1: me because what happened on Anzac Day at the dawn

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Speaker 1: service at Melbourne's Shrine of Remembrance was absolutely despicable, absolutely shameful.

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Speaker 1: It is something I have never seen nor heard of

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Speaker 1: at any dawn service any at any It is something

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Speaker 1: I've never ever seen or even heard of at any

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Speaker 1: dawn service anywhere in Australia right throughout our history, and

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Speaker 1: no one I've spoken to has seen anything like it either.

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Speaker 1: And this was a bunch of protesters led by, or

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Speaker 1: at least including a bunch of known neo Nazis, actual

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Speaker 1: neo Nazis who booed during the dawn service as it

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Speaker 1: was being opened with the welcome to country. Now, the

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Speaker 1: dawn Service is an incredibly sacred ritual for Australia. It

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Speaker 1: is a funeral ritual, It is a remembrance, it is

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Speaker 1: a rite in which we commemorate the war dead. So

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Speaker 1: it would be like booing at a funeral because you

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Speaker 1: didn't like the eulogy, and that is what these people did. Now,

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Speaker 1: of course everyone has come out and said, oh no,

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Speaker 1: it's totally inappropriate. We don't support what they did, but

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Speaker 1: there's a few people who follow that statement with a

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Speaker 1: butt and that to me is almost just as bad.

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Speaker 1: So that people say, look, I don't agree with booing

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Speaker 1: at the dawn service. Oh that was terrible, but they

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Speaker 1: kind of had a point, but they kind of sort

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Speaker 1: of raised a few issues. But maybe we shouldn't have

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Speaker 1: had the welcome to country there. Now, that to me

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Speaker 1: is almost like saying I don't support domestic violence, but

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Speaker 1: you shouldn't have burnt the toast, or saying on October eight,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, oh look, I don't support what Hamas did,

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Speaker 1: but you know they do have a couple of pretty

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Speaker 1: good points about, you know, what Israel's been doing. And

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Speaker 1: people actually said that didn't they people said, oh no, no, no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: sorry for posting all those memes on social media celebrating

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Speaker 1: the people flying in and killing everybody on the Kabuzas.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, no, I don't support what Hamas did. I

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Speaker 1: don't support that terrible terrorist act. I condemn all killing.

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Speaker 1: But they, you know, they do have a point that

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Speaker 1: Israel is pretty bad. Now, that is an appalling kind

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Speaker 1: of connection to make to say, Look, I don't support terrorism,

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Speaker 1: but it's it's all in a good cause. And that

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Speaker 1: is where a lot of people on the left have

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Speaker 1: found themselves. And they have been rightly condemned by people

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Speaker 1: who are pro Israel, and they've been rightly condemned by conservatives,

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Speaker 1: and they've been rightly condemned by sensible people in the

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Speaker 1: middle who were just right about everything like me. The

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Speaker 1: difference is that when people on the right do it,

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Speaker 1: they seem to think it's fine. I don't agree with

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Speaker 1: all the booing at the dawn service. Oh, but they

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Speaker 1: weren't all neo Nazis. Some of them were just you know,

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Speaker 1: regular folks. Or I don't agree with booing at the

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Speaker 1: dawn service, but that welcome to country shouldn't have been there,

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Speaker 1: Probably not the time to be making that point, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have thought, because it kind of looks like you're

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Speaker 1: on the side of the neo Nazis, even though of

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Speaker 1: course you're trying to sort of distance yourself from them,

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Speaker 1: seems like they keep kind of sidling right up next

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Speaker 1: to you because you're both saying the exact same thing.

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Speaker 1: And you were saying, just after these animals have defiled

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Speaker 1: our most sacred and profound and solemn national right after

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Speaker 1: they have defiled what is the most incredibly somber moment

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Speaker 1: of national reflection on the Australian calendar, you've actually decided

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Speaker 1: to say, yeah, or the point they will make. I

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Speaker 1: don't agree with their methods, but the point they were making,

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Speaker 1: the bit they were trying to get to, oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was actually fair enough. I don't agree with the

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Speaker 1: way they got there, but they're heading in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: That is the sort of equivocation we're seeing, and that

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Speaker 1: is the sort of thing that I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people on the right, and again these are people

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Speaker 1: who otherwise have a great deal of time and respect

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Speaker 1: and affection for but that I think is the trap

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Speaker 1: into which they are falling that is the cliff that

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Speaker 1: they are plummeting off, where you just get so one eyed,

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Speaker 1: you get so much tunnel vision about something that enrages

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Speaker 1: you so much, even though it probably doesn't affect you

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Speaker 1: that much, and rages you so much that you don't

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Speaker 1: see that giant red line. You don't see the edge

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Speaker 1: of the cliff that you've just run right over. And now,

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Speaker 1: as a result of that, we've spent the last week

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Speaker 1: of the campaign talking about whether or not they should

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Speaker 1: be welcome to country at ANZAC Day, dawn services or

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Speaker 1: other major events. That's exactly what the Neo Nazis wanted

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Speaker 1: to happen. That was why they did that stunt. That

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Speaker 1: was why they violated the most sacred boundaries of Australian

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Speaker 1: national decency because they wanted to put it on the

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Speaker 1: national agenda and they wanted everybody to talk about it.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly what people are doing. They are doing

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Speaker 1: the Neo Nazis bidding. And they can call them neo Nazis,

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Speaker 1: or they can say they're not all Neo Nazis, or

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Speaker 1: they can say, oh, we don't support what the Neo

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Speaker 1: Nazis did, or we don't support what happened, but you

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Speaker 1: are still doing exactly what they want. So I'll let

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Speaker 1: that sit just there. But what impact does this have

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Speaker 1: on the election campaign? Forget the fact that it's tearing

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Speaker 1: apart Australia's moral fabric. Let's focus on the really important stuff,

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Speaker 1: which is how many seats is it going to cost them? Well,

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Speaker 1: I I'm pretty sure that this is the sort of

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Speaker 1: thing that would far from being the shot in the

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Speaker 1: arm for Peter Dutton and the Coalition that so many

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Speaker 1: of his supporters and opponents of the Welcome to Country

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Speaker 1: think it will be. I reckon this might actually be

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Speaker 1: the final nail in the coffin, because every single person

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Speaker 1: who is championing what Peter Dutton and others are talking

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Speaker 1: about in getting rid of the Welcome to Country at

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Speaker 1: all these events, I'm pretty sure they're already voting for him.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if there are too many undecided voters

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Speaker 1: sitting on the fence going, oh well, let me seek.

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Speaker 1: I didn't really like the working from home staff, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I am getting a bit sick of all those welcome

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Speaker 1: to countries and maybe if someone would just stand up

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Speaker 1: and get rid of all those welcome to countries I

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Speaker 1: could finally stop worrying about putting food on the table

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Speaker 1: and putting a roof over my head and getting the

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Speaker 1: kids to school every day, and I could sleep soundly

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Speaker 1: at night knowing that there aren't as many welcome to

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Speaker 1: countries being done as there used to be. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure if that voter exists. I'm pretty sure that anyone

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Speaker 1: who really really cares about this issue, and again I'm

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Speaker 1: fairly ambivalent about it myself. I much prefer to see

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Speaker 1: real practical action when it comes to indigenous advancement and

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Speaker 1: making people's lives better. But I'm not sure that that

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Speaker 1: person is just sitting there thinking, if only Peter Dutton

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Speaker 1: would be stronger on Welcome to Country, I would change

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Speaker 1: my vote from Labor to Liberal. I mean, does anyone

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Speaker 1: out there, does anyone think that voter exists? Does anyone

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Speaker 1: think there's someone who's undecided and was just waiting on

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Speaker 1: whether or not someone would be harsher than the government

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Speaker 1: on Welcome to Country. In fact, I think what has

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Speaker 1: happened is that there is a confusion between I suppose

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Speaker 1: noise and support. There's all this noise about Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Country and it gives them a bit of what they

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Speaker 1: think is momentum and what they think is a kind

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Speaker 1: of ground swell of support because everyone suddenly talk talking

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Speaker 1: about it, which need to remind you, is exactly what

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Speaker 1: the neo Nazis wanted and they think, right, he's got

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Speaker 1: his mojo back. It's just like the Voice. It's just

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Speaker 1: like the Voice campaign where Peter Dutton was at his

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Speaker 1: best and they said he couldn't do it, and they

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Speaker 1: said that, you know, it was inevitable and everyone wanted

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Speaker 1: the Voice and it was, you know, something that we

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Speaker 1: were heading towards. Anyone who wasn't on board was a

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Speaker 1: racist or a Knuckadraga or whatever. And Peter Dutton stood

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Speaker 1: up and he stood up for every day Australians and

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Speaker 1: he fought the Voice and he won. Where's that Peter Dutton.

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Speaker 1: He's been missing in the campaign, But now he's back.

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Speaker 1: He's strong, and he's standing up for true Australians and

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Speaker 1: what true Australians believe in. In fact, the opposite is actually

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Speaker 1: true because by talking about something that most Australians are

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Speaker 1: at best think of as a second order issue, Peter

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Speaker 1: Dutton is not the Peter Dutton who was fighting the

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Speaker 1: Voice and killing the voice. Peter Dutton is the voice,

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Speaker 1: because the reason the voice so failed was because the

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Speaker 1: people who were propounding it, the people who were going

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Speaker 1: out there and saying this is a really important thing

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Speaker 1: that we need to do, sounded out of touch because

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Speaker 1: it sounded like they were oblivious to or not paying

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Speaker 1: enough attention to the cost of living crisis that was

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Speaker 1: escalating in every single Australian household. So it sounded like

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Speaker 1: they were obsessed with something that wasn't actually a first

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Speaker 1: order issue with ordinary Australians, and that is what eventually

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Speaker 1: brought it undone. And no one was telling them to stop,

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Speaker 1: and no one was telling them to recalibrate or to

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Speaker 1: hold off, because of course everyone around them was telling them, yes,

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Speaker 1: this is the moment, this is your time, this is

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Speaker 1: what needs to happen, this is what we must do

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Speaker 1: as a nation. And that is exactly what everyone around

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Speaker 1: Peter Dutton is telling him, and he is talking about

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Speaker 1: and obsessing about an issue that the vast majority of

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Speaker 1: Australians at best don't really care about that much. So

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Speaker 1: the Peter Dutton who was coming out in the last

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Speaker 1: week of this campaign isn't the Peter Dutton who killed

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Speaker 1: the voice? This Peter Dutton is the voice. All the

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Speaker 1: polls are pointing to a Labor victory at Saturday's election,

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Speaker 1: But of course there's only one poll that matters, and

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Speaker 1: that is the Timmy g poll. Tim Gleason campaign strategist,

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Speaker 1: extraordinary Trump whisperer, Labor legend. How are you.

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Speaker 2: Pleasure to be here, Joseph?

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Speaker 1: There's always a moment, isn't there? Sort of before an election?

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Speaker 1: You know, you and I we talk all the time,

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Speaker 1: and we look at all the polls, you read all

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Speaker 1: the stories, you talk to the people and the party

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Speaker 1: who know all this stuff, and then just before the

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Speaker 1: day itself, you think, holy anything could happen. How are

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Speaker 1: you feeling? What's your sense of where the election's at

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Speaker 1: right now?

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Speaker 3: No, I think it's done. I think people have made

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Speaker 3: their minds up. There's no twenty nineteen sort of zag moment.

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Speaker 3: I think it's over.

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Speaker 1: And obviously, if that zag moment was going to come,

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Speaker 1: it would have been preempted by Penny Wong for reasons

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Speaker 1: best known to herself, seeming to say to a podcast,

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Speaker 1: those pesky podcasters, you just can't trust them that you know,

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Speaker 1: the voice was inevitable. You know that sooner or later

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Speaker 1: we'd look back on the voice debate and think, how

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Speaker 1: are we even having a debate about this, because now

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Speaker 1: here it is. She since said, oh, no, no, I

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Speaker 1: wasn't talking about the voice. I was talking about reconciliation generally,

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Speaker 1: which I don't really buy. But that seemed to derail

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Speaker 1: things a fair bit over sort of, you know, Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: Wednesday morning, midweek, just as the government seemed to be

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Speaker 1: really just driving home. How much of a distraction do

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Speaker 1: you think that has been and how much damage you

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Speaker 1: think it has caused?

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Speaker 3: Oh, maybe a touch, but I don't think it causes

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Speaker 3: any damage. And because the opposition have been just making

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Speaker 3: this week all about welcome to country, Welcome to country,

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Speaker 3: they basically got lost in the mist, in the grand

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Speaker 3: scheme of things. And so I think people have moved on.

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Speaker 3: The people who are voting over the Voice, or voting

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Speaker 3: over welcome to country, or acknowledging knowledging our first nations people,

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Speaker 3: they're already voting for Peter Dutton or the triumpher Patriots

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Speaker 3: or one Nation.

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Speaker 2: So I don't think I don't think it means it.

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Speaker 2: Tinker's cust really.

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Speaker 1: And That's the interesting thing, because I think I think

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Speaker 1: the coalition things they're on to a winner, because of

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Speaker 1: course everyone in their base is yeah, yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: what will win the election, this is what will come

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Speaker 1: home strong, because that's what they really really care about.

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Speaker 1: For most people, even people who think maybe it is

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Speaker 1: a bit overdone or whatever. At best, it's a kind

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Speaker 1: of second tier issue. And my sense is that every

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Speaker 1: second you spend not talking about the cost of living

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Speaker 1: is a second wasted. And so Dutton has been distracted

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Speaker 1: by that, and then thanks to Penny Wong's comments coming out,

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Speaker 1: Labour's sort of been dumped into this culture war that

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Speaker 1: it was actually doing a very good job of sort

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Speaker 1: of staying above. But you don't reckon, you don't reckon.

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Speaker 1: They've been sucked down into the whirlpool by it. Nah.

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Speaker 3: And there's three days out and I think the promise

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Speaker 3: to spoke at the press club today and by all

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Speaker 3: reports did very well. And I think play Dutton's out

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Speaker 3: having young child somewhere in Chisholm. I think, so I

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Speaker 3: think the world's just it's going to have you hardly

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Speaker 3: even him to make a you know.

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Speaker 1: Would you like to know a fun fact Chisholm is

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Speaker 1: one of the very few electorates that actually voted for

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Speaker 1: the voice. It voted in favor of your voice. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right. And again I think this is one of

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Speaker 1: those things where you know, Melbournians, I think are still

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Speaker 1: kind of structurally progressive, and I think that they would

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Speaker 1: be very embarrassed, rest and ashamed about what happened at

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Speaker 1: the Melbourne War Memorial, the Shrine of Remembrance on Friday morning.

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Speaker 1: And so I think again Dunton jumping out up and

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Speaker 1: down and saying, hey, you know, I don't agree with

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Speaker 1: what those neo Nazis did, but they kind of made

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Speaker 1: a good point.

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Speaker 2: And you've got to remember too.

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Speaker 3: I think this mighted me the first at really not

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Speaker 3: too many elections where kids have been doing Welcome to

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Speaker 3: Country now. They're probably since primary school. Those kids are

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Speaker 3: probably in the early twenties now, like they grew.

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Speaker 1: Up with it.

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Speaker 2: This isn't some It's not shocking, that's come.

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Speaker 3: I hear it every Friday at Albert Park Primary and

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Speaker 3: Pomari is the most Anglo looking school you'll ever see.

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Speaker 2: And the kids loved them.

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Speaker 1: They were all the most progressive. In inner city types

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Speaker 1: are always the most a globe. Yeah, they do it

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Speaker 1: at our school as well. So let's get into the.

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Speaker 3: Big flag poles for this tram flag.

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Speaker 1: Flag tris on the flag, rainbow flags.

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Speaker 3: They were Henry said, if I was to lose those flags,

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Speaker 3: I lose my goalposts.

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Speaker 2: They're not on a winner at all.

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Speaker 1: So let's let's get into the weeds. Then, which seats

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Speaker 1: do you reckon? Are in play? Which seats do you reckon?

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Speaker 1: Labor is at risk of losing. First of all, Albo

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Speaker 1: said today that he plans on, you know, holding on

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Speaker 1: to all seventy eight and as they say, if you

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Speaker 1: want to make God laugh, telling me your plans. But

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Poles are looking really strong for Labor.

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Speaker 1: Do you think there is a chance they could actually

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Speaker 1: hold on to all their seats or are some definitely

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Speaker 1: gone with the wind.

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Speaker 3: I think they can hold on to most of them.

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Speaker 3: I really do, and I think you probably if you

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Speaker 3: look at Gilmore first up on the nine, which will

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Speaker 3: be Poles finish at six, there'll.

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Speaker 2: Be numbers coming in not long after.

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Speaker 3: If the Libs aren't getting big swings in Gilmore, it's

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Speaker 3: in a world of pain. The fact that Peter Dutton

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Speaker 3: was campaigning in Gilmore a day or two ago.

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Speaker 2: It's a horrible sign. Gilmore's what is it zero point.

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Speaker 1: Zero zero two? Yeah, this is Gilmour on the south

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Speaker 1: coast of New South Wales around to an hour and

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Speaker 1: that's a shell Hart, that's all.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he needs a five percent swing to win

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Speaker 3: nineteen seats. Peter Dutton, if he's in there with three

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Speaker 3: days out, good luck trying to get five percent swings.

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Speaker 1: So that's right. I mean, if you think any seat

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Speaker 1: like that which is effectively at a dead even that

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Speaker 1: should fall over in a stiff breeze.

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Speaker 4: If yeah, if they can't win Gilmore, if you look

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Speaker 4: at Gilmore quickly, and even a seat like ben Along

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Speaker 4: which is now Labour seat but notionally liberal I think,

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Speaker 4: and it's a good cross section ben Along and it

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Speaker 4: sort of highlights this campaign.

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Speaker 2: The lip candidates, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, just horrible chocolate kids in More trouble.

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Speaker 2: Hay's had more alleged fundraisers and everything.

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Speaker 3: And if they're going battling in ben Alone and not

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Speaker 3: doing really well in Gilmore, and if you look at

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Speaker 3: a couple of Melbourne seats early on, which would be

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Speaker 3: Aston which labor basically renting.

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Speaker 1: After a bio that they should never have got. That's right,

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Speaker 1: they should never got Asden in the first place. I

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Speaker 1: think we can say that that's gone back to the Libs.

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Speaker 2: If you look at.

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Speaker 3: Chisholm and McEwen, if there isn't a big swings in

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Speaker 3: those two seats, which all you'll.

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Speaker 2: See lives are in the water pane.

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Speaker 3: If they can't win Chisholm and McEwen, that means they're

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Speaker 3: not going to pick up anything in Victoria bar the

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Speaker 3: rental at his Aston.

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Speaker 1: That's right, and there's talk obviously they'll pick up sort

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Speaker 1: of quasi sort of labor heartlandish seats like Hawk or

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Speaker 1: Bruce Gordon, you reckon, they're all no.

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Speaker 3: I don't think a lot of those areas voted against Labor.

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Speaker 3: I had swings against Labor even though Labour got fifty

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Speaker 3: three percent of the two party preferred voting in Victoria

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Speaker 3: in twenty two because that was the first election after lockdown,

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Speaker 3: so a lot of those sort of true believers had

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Speaker 3: a bit of a revolt. That was their first chance

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Speaker 3: to vote against the over government. So they've got six

353
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Speaker 3: and seven percent swings against them. So a lot of

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Speaker 3: the Labor voters who protests that those margins already include

355
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Speaker 3: those votes right who the Dunton is going to have

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Speaker 3: to hold all those people and then swing a whole

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Speaker 3: bunch more. And I just I've just got a gut

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Speaker 3: feeling it's not going to be as bad as people think.

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Speaker 1: In Victoria, and then moving over to South Australia, they've

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Speaker 1: already got boothbye. Do they pick up Stir which is

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Speaker 1: just sitting there on just a giant, big fat zero

362
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Speaker 1: point five percent margin. It's just the most tantalizing, low

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Speaker 1: hanging fruit you can imagine Lab's. We're going after it for.

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Speaker 3: It's like sitting in a grand final. We keep getting them,

365
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Speaker 3: Never Swans. It's for some reason we just don't seem

366
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Speaker 3: to Winster. Ever, even though Peter Malamascus is as popular

367
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Speaker 3: as JFKA, it's a thin margin for some rate.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where it is.

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Speaker 3: And even if you look at the bookmakers, the Lips

370
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Speaker 3: are really heavily favorite to hold on to st Just mate,

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Speaker 3: there you go.

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Speaker 2: It's the Sydney Swan's of South Australia.

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Speaker 1: As you said, we've been winning Sturt for thirty five years.

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Speaker 1: Going over to Wa, now Wa again at the last election.

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Speaker 1: The most improbable stronghold for Labor always historically has been

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Speaker 1: seen as a more conservative state. But because of the

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Speaker 1: huge popularity of Mark mcgow and, there was that big

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Speaker 1: red wave that came late on election night in twenty

379
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Speaker 1: twenty two. And it looks like, I mean, both leaders

380
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Speaker 1: are spending a lot of time over there, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like Labour's vote might be holding up there.

382
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like there was a new seat crowded Bullwinkle,

383
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Speaker 3: which even though it was a rocky and Bullwinkle, even

384
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Speaker 3: though it was a it's a marginally held Labor seat.

385
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Speaker 3: The sort of acceptance was that's on a high base

386
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Speaker 3: vote from last time. The Libs should be able to

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Speaker 3: take that and take back Tanging or something. But it

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00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 3: looks like it's going to be status quo in Wa.

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Speaker 3: And so that's a fantastic result for Labor, especially after

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Speaker 3: a resulting twenty two. To hold all those seats would

391
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Speaker 3: be amazing result.

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Speaker 1: And Borwingle obviously has got the former Liberal MP in

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Speaker 1: good enough running as an independent in it, and as

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Speaker 1: a bit of an fu to his former party for

395
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Speaker 1: not endorsing him, he's giving his preferences to Labor so

396
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Speaker 1: that's another little sting in the tail which should help

397
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Speaker 1: it along.

398
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

399
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Speaker 3: So I think both parties expect not much movement in

400
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Speaker 3: WA South Australia or the NT for that matter.

401
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Speaker 1: Yeah, two seats there, Solomon Lingari ling yaris on a

402
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: nothing margin, but you reckon they'll hold on to that.

403
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 2: Apparently that.

404
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 3: It was in danger and the just center price has

405
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Speaker 3: really helped out in Lenari, she's come to that party.

406
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Speaker 1: Queensland, I've been saving the best for last. At least

407
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Speaker 1: we haven't forgo about you, Tazzy. I'm just talking about

408
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Speaker 1: the mainland here. Queensland could be very, very fun on

409
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Speaker 1: election night. Labour is obviously going after the Greens seriously

410
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Speaker 1: in two seats, Brisbane and Griffith. And I'm told that

411
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Speaker 1: they're pretty confident that Brisbane is already in the Labor

412
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Speaker 1: column and Griffith would be the most delicious victory because

413
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Speaker 1: of course the Greens took that from Labor and put

414
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Speaker 1: in their most insufferable candidate, Max Chandler matha heave of

415
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Speaker 1: the hyphenated surname and the highenated housing policy. How do

416
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Speaker 1: you reckon they're going to go in Griffith.

417
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Speaker 3: I think they'll win Brisbane. I'm not sure about Griffith,

418
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Speaker 3: but they've got a more than punch his chance. But

419
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Speaker 3: I think the other seat we should look at is

420
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Speaker 3: light hut Ah.

421
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Speaker 1: I was about to say yes, Warren Ensch retiring, very

422
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Speaker 1: very popular local member, huge sort of personal following. He's gone,

423
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Speaker 1: so that takes shaves a few points off it.

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Speaker 3: And I think the only time he lost was under

425
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Speaker 3: the glory years of Kevin running oh seven.

426
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Speaker 1: Rude great man.

427
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Speaker 3: So I think there's a world in which lab becoming

428
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Speaker 3: two of those three seats, which would be just an

429
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Speaker 3: awful result for Peter Dutton. For an opposition Queensland leader

430
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Speaker 3: to actually go backwards in Queensland is just.

431
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Speaker 1: Well, while we're on that, do you reckon they're going

432
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Speaker 1: after Dutton in his own seat of Dixon. Is that

433
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Speaker 1: just a mind game or do you think there's a

434
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Speaker 1: serious chance that they could actually No.

435
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 3: I think your holy seat in Dixon, but I have

436
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 3: to talk about it's just to have to an some

437
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 3: questions about your own seat must be infuriating when you

438
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 3: want to take over.

439
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: That cosh Ominously, the leader of the Conservative Party in

440
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,360
Speaker 1: Canada just lost his own seat because he was perceived

441
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 1: as being too close to Donald Trump.

442
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: It would be a terrible result if Peter Dutton doesn't

443
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 3: pick up any seats, loses his own seat, it would oh.

444
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: Also, and then we go down to Tazzy. The Libs

445
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 1: obviously have Bass and Braddon bridget Archer is the member

446
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 1: for Bass. She's kind of like an opposition to her

447
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 1: own party. She's she's very outspoken, she often crosses the floor.

448
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: So you would think any protest vote against the Libs

449
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: already goes to bridget Archer, who is a lib. Do

450
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: they get do you reckon? They get Bass?

451
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 3: Well, they'll definitely hold Lines, which at one stage well

452
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 3: saying like everything else six weeks ago or two months

453
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:39,360
Speaker 3: ago was labor not I wouldn't use the word optimistic,

454
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 3: but what's the weather that it's not quite optimistic.

455
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: But not cautiously optimistic or quietly confident, No, no.

456
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 2: No, almost almost optimistic.

457
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: You know.

458
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 3: It's sort of maybe if things break their way, they

459
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 3: can win bass.

460
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 1: Wow, that would be amazing. And Lines obviously safe now

461
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: and the the salmon farmers of Macquarie Harbor can also

462
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: sleep easy at night. After Anthony alb over Road, yet

463
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: another decision by Daniel Blipper Sick, which that would be

464
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: a frosty That'd be a frosty dinner party, wouldn't it

465
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: if you were seated between those two. I like them both, Joseph,

466
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: I love them both, love them both, love them both.

467
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: So basically, once we've done this over around the grounds,

468
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: we're looking at Labor probably losing a couple in Victoria,

469
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: I think we can say.

470
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 3: I think yeah, possibly two Mcurre and they theoretically on

471
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 3: the pendulum now they hold Mensies because of the redistribution,

472
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: so that's little count as losing it. So even though

473
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 3: the lives will hold that, probably lose Asson and may

474
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 3: lose one of Chisholm or McEuen, but that could be

475
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: about it.

476
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: And from where it.

477
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 3: Was two months ago to end up there, which is

478
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 3: basically mensies, is this seat anyway, Assen's of rental, So

479
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: you're looking at possibly.

480
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: Picking up one, yeah, possibly too.

481
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: Even if you pick up just McEwan and Chisholm, you've

482
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: picked up two seats after all of that.

483
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then Labor possibly slash probably maybe gets two.

484
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 1: In Queensland we're back as.

485
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 3: A pendulum says, they keep Ben along, which is counted

486
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 3: as a notionally liberal seed. At the moment, I think

487
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 3: the Lives will lose Bradfield to the Teal candidate there.

488
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: So all of a sudden you're looking around the country, tazzy,

489
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: there's an opportunity either status quo will labor pick one up,

490
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 3: And all of a sudden you look around the country

491
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 3: and you say, I can't see a path where Alblo

492
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: doesn't get majority government.

493
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: So I was asked on Sky News on Monday night

494
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: it might pick for a number of seats. And again

495
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 1: you don't want to be over confident or to gog

496
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: or whatever, but you look at it, like you say,

497
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: if you actually just look at all this stuff, people

498
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: keep talking about a hung parliament, minority government. I don't

499
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: see where they are seeing that. And I said, I

500
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: reckon labor in the high seventies, And I said, the coalition,

501
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: you know, might even just sort of crack sixty or

502
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: so from where it's at.

503
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: Is what the fookmakers now bent on groups of five seats.

504
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 3: And of course we know so the shortest priced labor

505
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 3: are between seventy six and eighty seats, which is about

506
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 3: even money favorites. So all the smart money is having

507
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 3: weighed by between seventy six and eighty.

508
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: Seats to that majority obviously, Yeah, which is a.

509
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: Majority, And there's a world, it has to be a

510
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: perfect world where everything collides, everything goes their way, and

511
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: Labor could end up with eighty, but I'd say they're

512
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: more likely between seventy six and seventy eight.

513
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, eighty is just greedy. You want it, you want it.

514
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 1: There to be a bit of a fight it and

515
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: then the coalition do you reckon again? I almost surprised

516
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: myself when I was saying it. But if you look

517
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: at all the seats, you think, well, how are they

518
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: going to win more than a sort of handful.

519
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they'll lose one in New South Wales to

520
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: the Independent in Bradfield. They'll pick up a couple in Victoria, obviously,

521
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,719
Speaker 3: but you know that could be offset by losing like heart,

522
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: and there's a world in which they come out one

523
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 3: or two positive that what's he on now?

524
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 2: Fifty seventy eight, fifty eight.

525
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 3: It could struggle together six in front of it, which

526
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: is crazy. Absolutely just I think we're on this podcast

527
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: a couple of months ago and we said, if Albert

528
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 3: can just get to sixty eight, he might just hold on.

529
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Alba will get to sixty eight with people

530
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: not handing out.

531
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: Really is just he's the luckiest man in Australia.

532
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: What we must say, I answer, this has been the

533
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: worst campaign by Liberpoody I've ever seen. I've been part

534
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 3: of some terrible campaigns in my time, but this scene

535
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 3: is just horrific.

536
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: You had.

537
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: Dumping a signature policy that's right in the middle of

538
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: an election campaign, saying terribly sorry, we were absolutely, completely

539
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: and utterly wrong about this. We are now going to

540
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: do the opposite of what we just promised was great

541
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: for the great for the nation. I mean, I have

542
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: never seen that in my entire life.

543
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: His press conferences are getting worse every day. You can

544
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: tell he's getting shown numbers every morning.

545
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: And it's just so.

546
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: I have to face, there's been limb bus crashes in

547
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: seemingly every other day.

548
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: Runs into just horrible.

549
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 3: And I heard the story and it was in the

550
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 3: there was a big there's posters in Victoria, you know,

551
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 3: just Cinta Allen, Anthony Albernerni's face to face. Don't let

552
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: what's happened in Victoria, I happen to Unfortunately I put

553
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: them all over Brisbane as well.

554
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: Which yeah, I don't understand just why.

555
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just been Oh somebody said, what would you

556
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: rather do? Would you rather be on the Liberal campaign

557
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: or be with Stevie Wonder in a one on one

558
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 3: part put shootout with Tiger Woods and Greg Norman. I said,

559
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: I'd rather take my chances.

560
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: With Stevie Wonder.

561
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: You take your chances.

562
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: Part championship against the Shark and Tiger.

563
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: Well, Timmy, j on that note, thank you so much

564
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: for joining us. Thank you for being right about everything

565
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: all the time. As I'm sure so I'm.

566
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 3: Thinking will be about seventy six to seventy eight, which

567
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: makes it seventy seven, doesn't it really?

568
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I said, high seventies. So we are we are

569
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: as one. We have achieved clarity of sack. We have

570
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: self actualized.

571
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 2: Rabbino's in the lodge for another three years.

572
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: Joseph magnificent. I can't think of anywhere they would rather be.

573
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: Thanks He's Timmy, love your work, my friend, pleasure, and

574
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: look that is all we have time for. This week

575
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: has been yet another very special edition, so I hope

576
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: you've enjoyed it. Remember go out on Saturday. Vote early,

577
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: vote often, just kidding, don't vote often, that's illegal. I

578
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: hope you have a fantastic day, celebrate democracy, Eat a sausage.

579
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: If you want to get in touch with me, you

580
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: can slide into my dms on the Gram at Joe

581
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: Underscore Hildebrand, or you can drop us a line at

582
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: the Real Story at novapodcast dot com dot au. You

583
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 1: can leave us a rating or a review. Wherever you

584
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Only positive reviews are accepted. You know

585
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: that already. I'm going for a perfect five. And of

586
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: course you can catch everything I have to say. Oh

587
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: my god, I'm just sick of myself, you know what.

588
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: Everything I have to say every day during the election campaign,

589
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 1: across all the news corp, master heads, online, everywhere. I'll

590
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: have a bit to say an election night and afterwards

591
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: as well. And until then, I'll see you when it's

592
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: all over next week. Bye bye,