WEBVTT - Peter Dutton’s plan to win back teal seats

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>When Scott Morrison lost the last election, it was the

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<v Speaker 1>worst result for the Liberal Party in seventy years. The

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<v Speaker 1>cities deserted them as they lost ground in every state

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<v Speaker 1>except Queensland. It seemed inevitable that it would take at

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<v Speaker 1>least two terms in opposition to turn their fortunes around,

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<v Speaker 1>and Peter Dutton planned to start by wooing the bush

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<v Speaker 1>and the suburbs, with the cities seeming too far gone.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's all changed. Peter Dutton now sees a path

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<v Speaker 1>to majority rule at the next election and is eyeing

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<v Speaker 1>up the inner city seats. He thinks we'll get him there.

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<v Speaker 1>Today Senior reporter at the Saturday Paper, Rick Morton on

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<v Speaker 1>the surprising electorate Stutton hopes to win and whether he

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<v Speaker 1>can do so while sticking with his hardline conservatism. It's Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>January twenty three. So Rick, for the last week you've

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<v Speaker 1>been looking into whether the Coalition under Peter Dutton could

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<v Speaker 1>actually win the upcoming election. So after speaking to people,

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<v Speaker 1>after doing this deep dive, how's it looking.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Peter Dutton thinks that they're in a much

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<v Speaker 2>better position than anyone in the coalitions that they might

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<v Speaker 2>be even a year ago. I think he can win.

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<v Speaker 2>It's far more likely that it would be a minority government,

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<v Speaker 2>or they'd be in a position as a coalition to

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<v Speaker 2>negotiate for a minority government. But the calculus is still

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<v Speaker 2>very messy and they still need quite a few seats

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<v Speaker 2>to get into that position.

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<v Speaker 1>The coalition would need to win back eighteen seats as

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<v Speaker 1>well as keeping the ones that they have at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me how they're thinking about that and where

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<v Speaker 1>Dutton thinks that he might have the best chance of

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<v Speaker 1>winning votes.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things that has become clear in the

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<v Speaker 2>last six months at least is that Dunton himself thinks

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<v Speaker 2>that there's been a big shift in Victoria, which is

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<v Speaker 2>a state that the Liberals have briviously not been doing

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<v Speaker 2>very well in and has typically been a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>a kind of albatross around their neck. He chose to

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<v Speaker 2>soft launch his election campaign in Mount Laverley, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>kind of relatively in a suburban Melbourne seat, last Sunday

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<v Speaker 2>on the twelfth January.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, my friends, is great to be back in Victoria.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you very much for being here today. I want

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<v Speaker 3>to repeat what I've said before on many occasions at

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<v Speaker 3>the Liberal Party at a state and federal level is

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<v Speaker 3>back in town.

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<v Speaker 2>It's in the federal electorate of Chisholm, which is a

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<v Speaker 2>marginal seat, and the margin has actually is currently held

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<v Speaker 2>by Labor. The margin has nominally been halved to now

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<v Speaker 2>just three and a bit percent after electoral boundary redivisions,

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<v Speaker 2>so it's become kind of even more winnable if you like,

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<v Speaker 2>for someone like Peter Dutton, but it's still a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>kind of relatively progressive suburban seat, not yes in the

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<v Speaker 2>Voice referendum, and Peter Dutton, you will notice when you're

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<v Speaker 2>listening to what he's saying, he's not actually moderating his

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<v Speaker 2>retric particularly about aborageal affairs.

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<v Speaker 3>We will start with a full audit into spending on

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<v Speaker 3>indigenous programs and Indigenous communities, and in indigenous communities where

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<v Speaker 3>drugs and alcohol are prevalent, we will reintroduce the casualist

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<v Speaker 3>debit card for working age welfare is.

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<v Speaker 2>Suits, which to inside is evident interesting point because he

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<v Speaker 2>thinks he's got a chance in those seats, regardless of

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<v Speaker 2>what we were to think of as the previous kind

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<v Speaker 2>of demographics of those electrics. But you know if you

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<v Speaker 2>listen to what he's saying. He gave an interview with

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<v Speaker 2>Neil Mitchell on Neil Mitchell Podcast in September last year

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<v Speaker 2>where you know, in Dunton's own words, he said that.

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<v Speaker 4>In Victoria good swings and seats to us here and

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<v Speaker 4>seats on the radar that we hadn't expected to be

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<v Speaker 4>on the radar at this point in the cycle. There's

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<v Speaker 4>no election this weekend, so it's a moot point. But

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<v Speaker 4>there is a lot of encouragement for us in Victoria,

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of encourage encouragement for us in New South

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<v Speaker 4>Wales and in WI. I think he's coming back to

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<v Speaker 4>us off for pretty low base.

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<v Speaker 2>Now if you look at Redbridge poling now there are

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<v Speaker 2>nominally Labor linked research polling firm and they reckon in

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<v Speaker 2>the last quarterly snapshot at the end of last year

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<v Speaker 2>that the L and P were pretty well placed to

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<v Speaker 2>pick up at least nine seats from Labor, not just

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<v Speaker 2>in Melbourne but in Sydney too. We're talking Gilmore Patterson, Bedelong, Ashton,

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<v Speaker 2>Robertson and MacArthur Lyones, Lingiari in the Northern Territory and Bullwinkle,

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<v Speaker 2>which is unimportant to our purposes here, but a great

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<v Speaker 2>name for a seat, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you say, these are kind of metropolitan seats

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<v Speaker 1>that are not necessarily where you might think that Dutton

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<v Speaker 1>and his message would resonate. But clearly he thinks that

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<v Speaker 1>he has a chance for taking some of them from Labor.

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<v Speaker 1>What about the Teals? Rick, are the coalition hoping to

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<v Speaker 1>win some of those seats back as well?

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<v Speaker 2>They're not giving up on the Teal seats. Now there's

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<v Speaker 2>this apparently unerligned group called Australians for Prosperity. Now they're

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<v Speaker 2>not really underligned because their executive director is a former

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<v Speaker 2>federal MP for the Liberal National Party in the seat

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<v Speaker 2>of Ryan and they're essentially running attack campaigns against every

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<v Speaker 2>element of politics, Labor, the Greens, the Teals and in

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<v Speaker 2>fact their biggest thunder certainly last year in the Queensland

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<v Speaker 2>election was Cole Australia, who, according to the Queensland Electoral

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<v Speaker 2>Commission returns, provided them with seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>I was still going to one Liberal MP who suggested

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<v Speaker 2>that the Australians for Prosperity group is affiliated with the LMP,

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<v Speaker 2>but not quite enough that you could actually pin it

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<v Speaker 2>down on anyone, and so there's this idea that they've

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<v Speaker 2>got Plauds wild deniability. Now they've been running ads, betner ads,

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<v Speaker 2>to the billboards, et cetera, specifically in Teal seats, with

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<v Speaker 2>a focus on Manique grinding Kujong and a Leegori spender

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<v Speaker 2>in at Worth.

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<v Speaker 5>The federalation has yet to be called, but already I

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<v Speaker 5>and a number of my independent COI leagues have been

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<v Speaker 5>subjected by the Liberal Party and their friends in various

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<v Speaker 5>lobby groups to misleading information campaigns. We're talking about some

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<v Speaker 5>really nasty big billboards and an attack pamphlet which was

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<v Speaker 5>distributed to every person in Quong a couple of weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 2>By Dutton's own reckoning. Their strategy seems to be to

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<v Speaker 2>at least paint the Teals as some kind of fringe

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<v Speaker 2>hippie group like the Greens in their eyes.

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<v Speaker 6>Since the last election, Teal independent MPs have voted most

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<v Speaker 6>often with the Greens, followed by Labor, and so.

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<v Speaker 2>They're essentially trying to paint what they think is a

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<v Speaker 2>likely scenario that Labor will have to form some kind

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<v Speaker 2>of minority government with.

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<v Speaker 6>The teals the next election will be close, with many

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<v Speaker 6>commentators predicting a hung parliament. Are Labour Greens teals minority government,

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<v Speaker 6>don't risk it authorized.

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<v Speaker 2>Alboy would rather chew off his left foot, I think

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<v Speaker 2>than former might already government with the Greens. That's certainly

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<v Speaker 2>the prevailing view within Labor and certainly the l ANDP

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<v Speaker 2>think that's so they're going pretty hard on the tills

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<v Speaker 2>as a perhaps a two term strategy in that sense

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<v Speaker 2>where you know they might not necessarily win back all

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<v Speaker 2>the Till seats they want this time around, but they're

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<v Speaker 2>going to make life hard for them. And of course,

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<v Speaker 2>talking to TiAl MPs at the moment, they say that

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<v Speaker 2>it's already a market change from twenty twenty two when

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<v Speaker 2>things were not easy but better, and things are much

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<v Speaker 2>harder this time around, they're telling me because things are

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<v Speaker 2>already very.

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<v Speaker 1>Toxic after the break. Howeveryone else in the LNP feels

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<v Speaker 1>about Dutton's divisive election strategy. So Rick, you've been looking

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<v Speaker 1>into the Liberal parties electoral calculations ahead of the next election,

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<v Speaker 1>and as well as needing to take seats from Labor

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<v Speaker 1>and the Tills, they all also have to hold on

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<v Speaker 1>to the seats that they currently have. So can we

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<v Speaker 1>talk a bit about the seat of Bradfield in North Sydney.

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<v Speaker 1>What does the pre selection that happened there over the weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>what does that tell us?

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<v Speaker 2>Bradfield is fascinating because it used to be the jewel

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<v Speaker 2>in the crown of the Liberal Party, used to be

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<v Speaker 2>the safest Liberal seat in that country, and it's currently

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<v Speaker 2>held by senior I guess you would call them moderate

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<v Speaker 2>faction p Paul Fletcher, former minister in the Morrison and

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<v Speaker 2>Turnbull governments. It was once described to me by people

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<v Speaker 2>within the coalition as the most boring man in Parliament

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<v Speaker 2>and he's retiring now. The Teals have changed the approach

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<v Speaker 2>in a lot of these kind of North and Northwest

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<v Speaker 2>Sydney seats because what used to be an enormous margin

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<v Speaker 2>has been eaten away by very persistent voices. At Bradfield

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<v Speaker 2>Independent candidate nicolete Buller, who has some funding from Plumate

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<v Speaker 2>two hundred.

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<v Speaker 7>People of Bradfield have a choice now between a community

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<v Speaker 7>independent who's local and genuinely working for the people, or

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<v Speaker 7>a party politician who is going to have to vote

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<v Speaker 7>the way that Peter Dutton tells them Every single time.

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<v Speaker 2>People know that and so maybe poor Fletcher read the

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<v Speaker 2>right in the room. Times are changing. He's not contesting

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<v Speaker 2>this seat anymore now. Of course, there was a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of talk about who was going to replace him, and

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<v Speaker 2>the pre selections hadn't been held until the weekend just

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<v Speaker 2>gone and Warren Mundine decided he was going to run

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<v Speaker 2>in Bradfield. He's an anti Voice campaigner, big in the

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<v Speaker 2>No campaign, very affiliated with Advanced Australia and all the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of it.

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<v Speaker 8>The ES campaign is out there every day accusing the

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<v Speaker 8>No campaign of lying, but the S campaign is built

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<v Speaker 8>on a.

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<v Speaker 2>Pack of lies.

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<v Speaker 8>One lie is that Indigenous people don't currently have a voice,

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<v Speaker 8>that Indigenous people aren't listened to in making laws and policies.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the opposite.

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<v Speaker 8>Indigenous Australians have many voices.

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<v Speaker 2>Radfil voted yes in the Voice referendum. They were one

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<v Speaker 2>of the only Liberal seats in that area to do

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<v Speaker 2>so in the metropolitan groups. So on Saturday the Protection

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<v Speaker 2>results were announced and BACKI went to Gazelle Captarian, who's

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<v Speaker 2>a tech executive had a career with Salesforce, which is

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<v Speaker 2>a major winner of government contracts. She was backed by

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Deputy Susan lay So Captarian one. Mundane didn't

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<v Speaker 2>get it. No one serious thought he was going to

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<v Speaker 2>get it. It was a crazy choice. I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>who thought that was a good idea, But it does

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<v Speaker 2>tell you that there is still this ideological divide in

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<v Speaker 2>the party when you've got these kind of public displays

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<v Speaker 2>of disunity.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it points to this ongoing eternal tension between the

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<v Speaker 1>Conservatives and the moderates and the party. And I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>how significant do you think it is that the party

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't get the conservative wing of the party couldn't get

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<v Speaker 1>its candidate or a candidate up in this seat. Does

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<v Speaker 1>it say that that perhaps the coalition is less united

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<v Speaker 1>behind Dutton's vision than he might hope.

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<v Speaker 2>It's there's an interesting moral kind of arithmetic going on here,

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<v Speaker 2>I think with a lot of the moderates, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of moderates are retire and Simon Permingham is retiring,

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<v Speaker 2>not that being a moderate did much for him and

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<v Speaker 2>the last kind of term of parliament, because a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of them have had to kind of fall in lockstep

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<v Speaker 2>behind Peter Dutton. As Peter Dutton has refused to moderate

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<v Speaker 2>his own behavior, which you know he will go out

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<v Speaker 2>and say, look, I'm just being a very fair and

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<v Speaker 2>sensible person. In fact, Neil Mitchell asked him, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>didn't you ever go through a left wing phase at university?

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<v Speaker 2>And Peter Dutton said.

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<v Speaker 4>No, I wasn't never, no, no, no. I was born

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<v Speaker 4>sensible and I've maintained it since then.

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<v Speaker 2>So now that's his kind of branding, right. You've got

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<v Speaker 2>the Peter Dutton who obviously deliberately didn't turn up for

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<v Speaker 2>the apology to the Solo generations, later apologize for not

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<v Speaker 2>doing that, but who then comes out just weeks ago

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<v Speaker 2>and says I'm not going to stand in front of

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<v Speaker 2>an aboriginal tyrest threat island a flag. The Overton window

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<v Speaker 2>is shifting on what you can and can't get away

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<v Speaker 2>with in public life. Trump has changed the world. There's

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<v Speaker 2>no doubt that Pitter Dutt has been tying a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit of that here. You know, you've seen him in

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<v Speaker 2>press conferences attacking journalists, particularly from the ABC, and so

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<v Speaker 2>Dutton's approach seems to be that he doesn't need to

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<v Speaker 2>win over every voter in a tail seat or an

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<v Speaker 2>inner city seat. He certainly doesn't need to win over

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<v Speaker 2>the ones who are progressive and would never change. But

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<v Speaker 2>there are enough in the middle who can flip a seat,

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<v Speaker 2>who might actually be like.

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<v Speaker 4>You know what.

0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.679
<v Speaker 2>And this seems to be the report I'm getting from

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:42.480
<v Speaker 2>moderate MPs who are like getting approached in their election

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.360
<v Speaker 2>by their constituents who are saying, well, I do I

0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:47.520
<v Speaker 2>like Australia Day, and I don't want to change the date,

0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:49.520
<v Speaker 2>and no one can tell me not to tell a

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 2>rut Australia Day. Now. I think that's a mean spirited

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 2>kind of approach to things, but it's certainly happening. I

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 2>think you would be a fool to deny that. And

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.120
<v Speaker 2>part of it is that the things are kind of

0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:05.319
<v Speaker 2>forged by degrees and we've been witnessing this shift over

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.400
<v Speaker 2>many years around the world, and Dunton's approach seemed to

0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:12.880
<v Speaker 2>be that there might actually be enough in it to

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 2>flip a few seats.

0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 1>And just finally Rick. For the last few months, the

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 1>common thought on this election has been that Labor will prevail,

0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 1>but not by much. They will end up having to

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 1>form a minority government. Do you think that that is

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.440
<v Speaker 1>still the most likely outcome or does it seem to

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 1>you like the kind of common wisdom on that is shifting.

0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.560
<v Speaker 2>I think there is a prevailing view, certainly even among

0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 2>labor supporters, that this federal government has been pretty disappointing,

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.360
<v Speaker 2>even on the things on which they ran. Integrity. The

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.199
<v Speaker 2>National Antiicruption Commission is literally a joke at this point.

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 2>I think, I don't think I'm being unfair in saying that,

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 2>but they can still do the thing where they actually

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.679
<v Speaker 2>point out you know who Peter Dutton is. This guy's

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 2>trying to reinvent himself as his kind of working class hero,

0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 2>and he keeps saying, really that he believes the coalition

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 2>of the Party of the working classes these days. He

0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 2>might mean that, he might actually believe it, but he's

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 2>also someone who's worth a lot of money and who

0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.040
<v Speaker 2>spent more time in property investment than he ever did

0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.880
<v Speaker 2>as a cop in Queensland, neither of which are particularly

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:25.200
<v Speaker 2>progressive pastimes. But if the retric wins, then it doesn't

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 2>matter what the state of play is in terms of

0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 2>the facts. The rehetric has won. And I think this election,

0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 2>I guess, like all of them, but perhaps the stakes

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 2>are higher will be fought in one on RETRIC because

0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 2>there's not a lot of policy details floating around.

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>On the other side, Rick, thank you for your time.

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 2>Thanks Ruby, it's always a pleasure.

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, Australian Federal Police say they're

0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>investigating whether overseas actors have paid local criminals to carry

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 1>out anti Semitic attacks in the country. AFP Commissioner Rhys

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>Kershaw says there is intelligence to suggest that Australians may

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.680
<v Speaker 1>have been paid using cryptocurrencies to execute hate crimes domestically.

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.600
<v Speaker 1>And the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, has had one on

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>one talks with newly sworn in US Secretary of State

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 1>Marco Rubio, downplaying concerns about trade sanctions. President Donald Trump

0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 1>has already flagged imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Senator Wong says she had positive discussions with her US

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 1>counterpart about trade as well as the Orchist partnership, stating

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 1>our alliance has never been stronger. I'm Ruby Jones. This

0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>is seven am. See tomorrow.