1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business Interview. I'm sure, 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,240 Speaker 1: n aylmer. The labor market lost fifty three thousand jobs 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: last month, and the sharpest fall in employment since late 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, but a decline and the participation rate 5 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: meant that despite the job losses, the official unemployment rate 6 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: remained at four point one percent. Reserve Bank Governor Michelle 7 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bullock has repeatedly voiced concerns about the strength of the 8 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: labor market, So is it finally starting to ease? I 9 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: wanted to take a look this morning at the official data, 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: but go a little deeper into how it's being reflected 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: in job ads and hiring trends across Australia. Callum Pickering 12 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: is the senior economist at Jobs Platform. Indeed, Calum, welcome 13 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. 14 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. 15 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: So let's start with the numbers yesterday. The unemployment rate 16 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,959 Speaker 1: four point one percent, fifty two nine hundred. I think 17 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: new job losses. What's the key takeaway from the labor 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: force data from the Bureau of Statistics yesterday. 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: Well, look, it certainly a good thing when employment falls 20 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: by fifty two eight hundred people. But I don't necessarily 21 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: think it's as bad as it seems a first glance, 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: and there's a couple of reasons for that. I think 23 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: one is that we have seen these sizeable drops in 24 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 2: the past. We saw one in December of twenty twenty 25 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: three and it did absolutely nothing to derail Australia's jobs boom, 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 2: and I suspect that'll probably be the case this time 27 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: as well. Monthly data does tend to be quite volatile 28 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: as well, so not too concerned about that, although obviously 29 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: it's far from ideal. But also I think, you know, 30 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 2: just in general, that the job market itself, you know, 31 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: looking past that decline yesterday, still remains really tight. Most 32 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 2: of the lad market metrics we have are still pretty healthy. 33 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: Whether you're looking at the unemployment RAID or the underemployment RAID, 34 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 2: or job vacancies or you know, whatever the lad marcametric is, 35 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: it tends to be still pretty good by historical standards, 36 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 2: and so I think that should give us some optimism 37 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: about a state of the job market right now and 38 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: going forward over the next three to six months. 39 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: Michelle Bullock last month, the Governor of the Reserve Bank, 40 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: talked about the job's market still being tight. In fact, 41 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: I think she said that there are some signals that 42 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: it was actually tightening even further. I mean, how do 43 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: you read the jobs market. Let's say yesterday's number. I mean, 44 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: the trend is your friend, and you know, we've still 45 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: got a very strong low unemployment rate, But how do 46 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: you read the job's market given what she said and 47 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: the numbers yesterday. 48 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 2: Well, certainly before yesterday, I would have tended to agree 49 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: with Michelle Bauk. The job market was incredibly tight. There 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: were signs that it was potentially even getting tighter. Now. 51 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 2: I don't want to overreact to a single month of 52 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 2: mad data. We do get them from time to time, 53 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: but certainly, if we were to see another weakish result 54 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 2: in March, then I think that would be a cause 55 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 2: for concern. That would certainly indicate that maybe labor market 56 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: conditions have shifted. Now right now, I'm not particularly concerned 57 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: about that because when I look at forward looking measures 58 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 2: of labor demands, such as job vacancies or the data 59 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 2: that we've got at indeed, it indicates that there's still 60 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 2: incredibly strong demand for workers across the country. These are 61 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: jobs that need to be filled, and so you know, 62 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 2: given that I think it's unlikely that we're going to 63 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 2: see a spike in the unemployment rate in the near term. 64 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: If anything, I think it'll probably be pretty flat. So 65 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: things shouldn't change too much. 66 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: So just jump into Indeed's data just a little bit. 67 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: What are you seeing in terms of job postings. 68 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 2: So right now, I mean one of the measures that 69 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: we use is we compare job postings against pre pandemic levels. Now, 70 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 2: right now, job postings on Indeed around fifty one percent 71 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: above pre pandemic levels, so there's still a lot of 72 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 2: jobs available on the platform. Now we are seeing a 73 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: downward trend. Job postings are down around seven point nine 74 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: percent over the past years, so you know, competition for 75 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 2: talenty is certainly easing. It remains pretty strong bio struggle 76 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 2: stances and more than strong enough to keep down employment 77 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: rate low. So that's obviously one of the reasons why 78 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 2: I remain pretty optimistic around labor market conditions in the 79 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: near term. 80 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: We talk a lot about productivity, and we talk about 81 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: different sectors and things like that. Starting with the Indeed data, 82 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 1: are there areas where sectors particularly that are doing a 83 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: lot better and others that are doing a lot worse. 84 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 2: Absolutely when we look at our data. I mean, you know, 85 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 2: the strongest area in terms of job creation or job 86 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: growth has been in areas such as cleaning and sanitation. 87 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,559 Speaker 2: There's a range of healthcare roles that sort of also 88 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: fit into that category. Personal care, so age care, disability 89 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 2: care have experienced incredibly strong growth over the past couple 90 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 2: of years and remain very strong even today. Now by comparison, 91 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 2: there are certainly weaker areas. I mean, job postings for 92 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: media and communications are down twenty four percent against pre 93 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: pandemic levels. 94 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: Callum, can't tell me that. I don't know, did you 95 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: that one? 96 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 2: Sorry about that? When I saw them data, I thought, 97 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: oh jeez, you're not happy about anyway, go on. But 98 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 2: there's also other areas of weakness. I mean the tech sector, 99 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 2: for example, in soft in terms of job creation at 100 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 2: the moment, data analytics, which is a sector that deals 101 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 2: primarily with AIM and jen Ai, job postings are below 102 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 2: pre pandemic levels. Software development ever so slightly above pre 103 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,359 Speaker 2: pandemic levels. But you know, in comparison to what we 104 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 2: are seeing in cleaning and sanitation and the overall job market, 105 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 2: you know that they're pretty weak. So there is a 106 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: big divide between the areas that have the strongest competition 107 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 2: for talent and those where, you know, competition for the 108 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 2: talent isn't quite so high. 109 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: Stay with me, Callum. We all be back in a moment. 110 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Callum Pickering from Indeed, how are job 111 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: seekers responding to this environment? So it's okay if you 112 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: are looking for a job and cleaning and sanitation, personal 113 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 1: care some of those sorts of areas, But in tech particular, 114 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: Tech was one that you mentioned before the break. Are 115 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: they more people applying for fewer roles or is there 116 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: just scenes is more competition out there, so the actual 117 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: people that the company can pick up is better. Like, 118 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: how's it working? 119 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's an interesting dynamic at play right now. I mean, 120 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 2: there is a lot of jobs available, not necessarily in 121 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: all sectors, but overall, there are still a lot of 122 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 2: jobs available, and yet job seekers seem to be more 123 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 2: cautious than they were in the past. We've seen job 124 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 2: mobility has to climbed recently, and certainly the Great Resignation 125 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 2: is definitely over, if it ever truly began. Now. It's 126 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 2: interesting because I mean normally, when I look at the 127 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 2: job market, I would say, Okay, well, it's still a 128 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: pretty good job market for the job seekers, right. There's 129 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 2: still a lot of opportunities out there. If you're looking 130 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 2: for more pay, then there's opportunities to go get at that. 131 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 2: But clearly job seekers a prioritizing job security over you 132 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 2: and interesting opportunities, which potentially is maybe a little bit 133 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 2: of a mistake for some workers and job seekers out 134 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 2: there now. Obviously, for specific sectors things can be more challenging. 135 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 2: This tech sector is a great example of that. There's 136 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 2: been a lot of high profile layoffs in that space. 137 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 2: There isn't necessarily as many jobs available as they used 138 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 2: to be, so that certainly made things a little bit 139 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: more more difficult. But overall for the job market, I 140 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 2: think this cautiousness around job security is really dominating how 141 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: job seekers are viewing the market at the moment, and 142 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 2: maybe that view is a little bit misplaced given the 143 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 2: labor market dynamics that we actually have. 144 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: What about skills shortages? I mentioned productivity a moment ago. 145 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: Improving skills should theoretically improve productivity. Are we seeing people reskilling? 146 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: That's certainly something so I don't have firm data on that, 147 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 2: but certainly anecdotally, that is something that we consistently hear 148 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: that job seekers, particularly younger job seekers, are really prioritizing 149 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 2: upskilling and developing their skills over time as a way 150 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: to remain competitive in the job market. Now, whether it's working, 151 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 2: I don't know. Productivity figures certainly very healthy at the moment, 152 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 2: so there's probably something wrong. But certainly from a job 153 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: seeker perspective, we do consistently see that job seekers are 154 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 2: weary that their skills can become obsolete, and so they 155 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: are putting in that effort to do more training, go 156 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 2: through more courses as a way to keep their skills 157 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 2: up today. 158 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: I mean one thing about indeed, you will have some 159 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: view about what's happening to wages before it actually happens. Obviously, 160 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: your job's board is going to include that some of 161 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: that data. At least, do you get a sense that 162 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: wage growth is coming down growing about normal. 163 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: It's certainly weaker than it used to be. I mean, 164 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 2: for a couple of years during the early parts of 165 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,959 Speaker 2: the post pandemic job boom, wages were really strong. That's 166 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: certainly not the case right now, and we are seeing 167 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 2: that across from most sectors. Now, what I think is 168 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 2: interesting is that the dynamic there isn't being driven by 169 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 2: a lack of competition for talent. I mean, there's still 170 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 2: a lot of jobs available, groupment is still quite challenging. 171 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 2: I mean, what's happening more is that businesses are sort 172 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: of pulling it back a little bit in terms of 173 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: what they believe they can pay. So it's been driven 174 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 2: less by labor market dynamics and an inability to fill 175 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: roles and more so around business conditions, economic conditions and 176 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: concerns around that. So that's a little bit unusual compared 177 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 2: to what we would normally expect to see when the 178 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 2: job market is so tight. 179 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 1: So what's going to happen to employment over the next 180 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: twelve months or so? 181 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 2: Con Well, if I knew the answer to that, I 182 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 2: probably wouldn't have this job. I'd probably be doing something else. 183 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 2: But I think, you know, as I sort of highlighted before, 184 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 2: these forward looking measures of labor demand remain really healthy. 185 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 2: There are still a lot of jobs available, and normally 186 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: that should lead to strong employment games over at least 187 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 2: the next three to six months. I mean, things can change, 188 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: but I'd be optimistic around the next three to six months. 189 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 2: In terms of employment growth. But if my assessment is right, 190 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 2: then I think the uneployment rate should remain quite low. 191 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 2: If it does increase, I don't think it'll increase by much. 192 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia thinks that will end up 193 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 2: at about four point two percent by the end of 194 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 2: the year. I mean, that's not far removed from the 195 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 2: four point one percent we are at the moment, so 196 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 2: something like that seems reasonable. But certainly unless we see 197 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,319 Speaker 2: a big change in these measures of job vacancies and 198 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 2: job adds, then I think a spike in the unemployment 199 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: rate seems unlikely at least this year. 200 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: And I can't have an economist on the show without 201 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: asking them about interest rates. What's all this mean for rates? 202 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 2: Well, look at a weaker set of labor market figures 203 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 2: yesterday probably helps the case for a rate cut at 204 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 2: least in the new term. My view is that the 205 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,599 Speaker 2: IBA will deliver another rate cut. I think either in 206 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 2: May or July. I'm leaning towards May, in large part 207 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 2: because we get the next quarterly inflation figures at the 208 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 2: end of April, so they came out on the thirtieth 209 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 2: of April. I think that's going to influence the RBA 210 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 2: a great deal. I mean, the RBA will say that 211 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 2: they look at a range of different economic data before 212 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 2: they make their decision. I think right now they're placing 213 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 2: a very high focus on those inflation figures. So if 214 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 2: those inflation figures at the end of April come in 215 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: a little bit weaker, then I think the RBA will 216 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: pull the trigger again. 217 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: Callum, thank you for talking to Fearing Greed. 218 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me Now. 219 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: It's Callum Pickering Sen. You're economist at Indeed, this is 220 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Join us every morning 221 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: for the full episode of Fear and Greed. Daily business 222 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean A. Elmer. 223 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 1: Enjoy your day.