1 00:00:03,930 --> 00:00:06,360 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:10,289 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Mines are shutting down. Workers are losing jobs as 3 00:00:10,289 --> 00:00:13,770 Sean Aylmer: the price of nickel continues to slide. This week, Andrew 4 00:00:13,799 --> 00:00:17,519 Sean Aylmer: Forrest's private company, Wyloo, became the latest to shut down 5 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,120 Sean Aylmer: operations at nickel mines in Western Australia amid a global 6 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,170 Sean Aylmer: supply glut. Dr. Forrest has criticized the London Metals Exchange 7 00:00:25,170 --> 00:00:29,250 Sean Aylmer: saying it's awash with dirty nickel mined from Indonesia and 8 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:32,819 Sean Aylmer: not distinguishing it from nickel mined under high ESG standards 9 00:00:32,848 --> 00:00:35,909 Sean Aylmer: in Australia. It's a major development considering nickel is a 10 00:00:35,909 --> 00:00:39,780 Sean Aylmer: viable component of batteries, of course. It's also needed for things like 11 00:00:39,780 --> 00:00:44,159 Sean Aylmer: stainless steel production and coins, I think. Vivek Dhar is the 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,519 Sean Aylmer: Director of Mining and Energy Commodities Research at Commonwealth Bank. 13 00:00:47,519 --> 00:00:49,140 Sean Aylmer: Vivek, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 14 00:00:49,740 --> 00:00:50,159 Vivek Dhar: Thank you. 15 00:00:50,729 --> 00:00:54,719 Sean Aylmer: Just what's happened to the nickel market? Why have prices 16 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,850 Sean Aylmer: or how much have they fallen and why have they 17 00:00:56,850 --> 00:00:57,780 Sean Aylmer: fallen that much? 18 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,930 Vivek Dhar: Sure. So look, if we look at what nickel prices have 19 00:01:00,930 --> 00:01:04,949 Vivek Dhar: actually done since the beginning of 2023, we're talking about 20 00:01:04,950 --> 00:01:09,870 Vivek Dhar: a 45 to 50% fall in LME nickel futures. So it 21 00:01:09,870 --> 00:01:13,589 Vivek Dhar: is a sizable decline that we've seen in pricing. Now, 22 00:01:13,860 --> 00:01:16,350 Vivek Dhar: a big part of that fall has to do more 23 00:01:16,350 --> 00:01:20,130 Vivek Dhar: with what's happening on the supply side for nickel, and 24 00:01:20,190 --> 00:01:24,780 Vivek Dhar: it's in fact Indonesian supply that has absolutely surged. And 25 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,499 Vivek Dhar: the surplus in terms of the forecast that is expected 26 00:01:28,500 --> 00:01:32,100 Vivek Dhar: in 2023 and what is expected in 2024, that should 27 00:01:32,100 --> 00:01:33,990 Vivek Dhar: give an idea of just how much of a surplus we're 28 00:01:33,990 --> 00:01:38,369 Vivek Dhar: talking about. The International Nickel Supply Group in late October 29 00:01:38,700 --> 00:01:41,550 Vivek Dhar: 2023, they came out with their forecast and we're talking 30 00:01:41,580 --> 00:01:46,919 Vivek Dhar: 7% of nickel supply is the size of the surplus 31 00:01:47,309 --> 00:01:49,110 Vivek Dhar: in 2023 and also in 2024. 32 00:01:49,110 --> 00:01:49,170 Sean Aylmer: Wow. 33 00:01:50,130 --> 00:01:53,940 Vivek Dhar: So this is what's driving this massive fall in pricing 34 00:01:53,940 --> 00:01:54,330 Vivek Dhar: so far. 35 00:01:54,750 --> 00:01:57,210 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So it's sort of supply driven. On the demand 36 00:01:57,210 --> 00:02:00,719 Sean Aylmer: side, what about the plateauing of EV sales, that type 37 00:02:00,719 --> 00:02:02,160 Sean Aylmer: of thing? Is that playing much of a role? 38 00:02:02,460 --> 00:02:05,279 Vivek Dhar: Look, it certainly is, but I would say it's a 39 00:02:05,279 --> 00:02:08,010 Vivek Dhar: secondary factor for now in terms of what's a driven 40 00:02:08,010 --> 00:02:10,710 Vivek Dhar: price action, but it certainly is the case. But if 41 00:02:10,710 --> 00:02:13,230 Vivek Dhar: you look at what nickel has to do, so when 42 00:02:13,230 --> 00:02:15,990 Vivek Dhar: we look at electric vehicles, the need for nickel is 43 00:02:15,990 --> 00:02:20,819 Vivek Dhar: clearly there. Now, your nickel demand forecast is very much 44 00:02:20,820 --> 00:02:23,129 Vivek Dhar: going to be dependent on how much you think this 45 00:02:23,129 --> 00:02:26,940 Vivek Dhar: decarbonization story has to go. If you believe in, for 46 00:02:26,940 --> 00:02:31,530 Vivek Dhar: instance, the status quo of policies, we're talking something over 47 00:02:31,530 --> 00:02:35,010 Vivek Dhar: two degrees increasing global temperatures, we need something like nickel 48 00:02:35,010 --> 00:02:42,089 Vivek Dhar: demand lifting about 1. 3 times from 2022 to 2030. But if 49 00:02:42,090 --> 00:02:45,480 Vivek Dhar: your ambitions match the Paris Agreement, which is a sub two 50 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:49,950 Vivek Dhar: degree world in terms of global temperature rising, we're talking 51 00:02:49,950 --> 00:02:55,469 Vivek Dhar: a 1. 6 times increase in nickel usage from 2022 52 00:02:55,469 --> 00:02:59,339 Vivek Dhar: to 2030. So your nickel demand story is very much 53 00:02:59,579 --> 00:03:04,380 Vivek Dhar: dependent on your ambition on climate change, but it is now 54 00:03:04,380 --> 00:03:07,290 Vivek Dhar: the story of supply, particularly in the near term, which 55 00:03:07,290 --> 00:03:10,649 Vivek Dhar: is driving this surplus wedge in the market at the moment. 56 00:03:11,429 --> 00:03:15,419 Sean Aylmer: Okay. Now, Andrew Forrest spoke about Indonesia. I'm just parking 57 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,050 Sean Aylmer: how it's mined for a moment. Indonesia, but also the 58 00:03:19,050 --> 00:03:22,500 Sean Aylmer: Philippines, China, I think they're all big suppliers of nickel 59 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:24,450 Sean Aylmer: as well, aren't they? And they're obviously putting a lot 60 00:03:24,450 --> 00:03:25,139 Sean Aylmer: onto the market. 61 00:03:25,830 --> 00:03:29,040 Vivek Dhar: Yeah, look, in terms of what has driven, I guess 62 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,090 Vivek Dhar: Indonesian supply, it really goes back to when Indonesia actually banned 63 00:03:33,419 --> 00:03:37,320 Vivek Dhar: nickel or exports, which was, we're talking almost a decade 64 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:42,030 Vivek Dhar: ago now. From that point, we've seen investment by China 65 00:03:42,030 --> 00:03:45,989 Vivek Dhar: into Indonesia lift dramatically, particularly on the nickel side. So 66 00:03:45,990 --> 00:03:50,429 Vivek Dhar: we have not just mined nickel, which is now converted 67 00:03:50,429 --> 00:03:54,600 Vivek Dhar: into intermediate products, which are ready for mostly the stainless 68 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,230 Vivek Dhar: steel sector, but increasingly we even have stainless steel production 69 00:03:58,230 --> 00:04:02,699 Vivek Dhar: in Indonesia, and we're seeing more and more conversion into 70 00:04:02,700 --> 00:04:06,570 Vivek Dhar: the battery sector that China really, really wants. So this 71 00:04:06,570 --> 00:04:09,900 Vivek Dhar: story, as much as Philippines has added supply and China 72 00:04:09,900 --> 00:04:13,590 Vivek Dhar: itself has added supply, it is the investment in Indonesia 73 00:04:13,590 --> 00:04:15,930 Vivek Dhar: that has been the game changer for the nickel market. 74 00:04:16,350 --> 00:04:19,500 Sean Aylmer: Andrew Forrest talked about the LME, the London Metals Exchange and its 75 00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:21,809 Sean Aylmer: role in all this. I don't quite get that. Can 76 00:04:21,809 --> 00:04:22,769 Sean Aylmer: you explain that to me? 77 00:04:23,460 --> 00:04:28,289 Vivek Dhar: Sure. Look, the way that nickel is priced is something 78 00:04:28,289 --> 00:04:31,950 Vivek Dhar: that is increasingly coming under scrutiny. So the way that 79 00:04:31,950 --> 00:04:34,680 Vivek Dhar: we look at nickel supply and demand is we look 80 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,080 Vivek Dhar: at all the types of nickel in the world, we 81 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,469 Vivek Dhar: convert it into a contained nickel kind of market, and 82 00:04:40,469 --> 00:04:44,249 Vivek Dhar: therefore we create supply and demand. But increasingly the question 83 00:04:44,250 --> 00:04:46,859 Vivek Dhar: is, is that the right way to price nickel? Because 84 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:51,089 Vivek Dhar: when you look at it, the nickel that's needed for, 85 00:04:51,089 --> 00:04:53,730 Vivek Dhar: say, the stainless steel sector is actually a lower- quality 86 00:04:53,730 --> 00:04:56,309 Vivek Dhar: nickel, and that is something that in the market is 87 00:04:56,309 --> 00:04:59,099 Vivek Dhar: known as Class 2 nickel. And that's something that you 88 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,299 Vivek Dhar: can argue should this be priced according to the LME nickel 89 00:05:03,299 --> 00:05:07,320 Vivek Dhar: price, which refers to the very high grade nickel, right? 90 00:05:07,350 --> 00:05:10,680 Vivek Dhar: So when it comes to the pricing methodology, it's like, 91 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,650 Vivek Dhar: look, should we have a premium for the nickel, which 92 00:05:13,650 --> 00:05:17,099 Vivek Dhar: is set for I guess the more pure nickel for 93 00:05:17,099 --> 00:05:20,789 Vivek Dhar: the battery application? So that's factor one, right? And that's 94 00:05:20,790 --> 00:05:23,639 Vivek Dhar: been a big conversation topic, but I guess some of 95 00:05:23,639 --> 00:05:27,600 Vivek Dhar: that conversation has been silenced because we've seen Indonesia actually 96 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,049 Vivek Dhar: build supply, which can be converted into that high- grade 97 00:05:31,050 --> 00:05:35,519 Vivek Dhar: nickel market. So that conversation has almost ebbed and flowed, 98 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,309 Vivek Dhar: but it's not really the big talking point that we 99 00:05:38,309 --> 00:05:41,129 Vivek Dhar: saw in the news flow this week. What has come 100 00:05:41,129 --> 00:05:44,040 Vivek Dhar: out is, well, why isn't there a premium for something 101 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,609 Vivek Dhar: which is done in a low- carbon way? Now that 102 00:05:47,610 --> 00:05:51,809 Vivek Dhar: is a function of, okay, you have a low- carbon 103 00:05:51,809 --> 00:05:54,360 Vivek Dhar: nickel product, why doesn't that attract a premium in the 104 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,480 Vivek Dhar: market? Now the reason why it's low carbon has to 105 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,029 Vivek Dhar: do with the geology. So the nickel that's produced out 106 00:06:00,029 --> 00:06:03,900 Vivek Dhar: of Australia predominantly comes from a type of deposit called sulfide 107 00:06:03,900 --> 00:06:07,050 Vivek Dhar: deposits, which are easier to process in a low- carbon 108 00:06:07,050 --> 00:06:10,799 Vivek Dhar: way into your battery- grade nickel. So that's now where 109 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,250 Vivek Dhar: the argument has centered that, look, let's put a premium 110 00:06:14,610 --> 00:06:17,369 Vivek Dhar: for this product. And very much it's the lifeline that 111 00:06:17,369 --> 00:06:21,000 Vivek Dhar: Australian nickel producers need in order to stay profitable in 112 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:21,930 Vivek Dhar: this market at the moment. 113 00:06:22,740 --> 00:06:25,290 Sean Aylmer: And how likely is that? I mean, in some other 114 00:06:25,290 --> 00:06:28,500 Sean Aylmer: commodities, coal is an example where there are sort of 115 00:06:28,500 --> 00:06:31,620 Sean Aylmer: price differentiation between the types of coal. Is what you're 116 00:06:31,620 --> 00:06:33,270 Sean Aylmer: talking about likely in nickel? 117 00:06:33,990 --> 00:06:37,169 Vivek Dhar: So far no real market has evolved. It is still 118 00:06:37,170 --> 00:06:40,260 Vivek Dhar: very, very nascent. And to expect for a market to 119 00:06:40,260 --> 00:06:43,680 Vivek Dhar: get to that stage in a matter of months or 120 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,050 Vivek Dhar: even six months or even a year, I would say, 121 00:06:46,050 --> 00:06:49,139 Vivek Dhar: is very ambitious. It will take time. I think there 122 00:06:49,139 --> 00:06:52,440 Vivek Dhar: will be a point where you are paying for low- 123 00:06:52,500 --> 00:06:55,200 Vivek Dhar: carbon nickel. I think we will get there, but to 124 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,930 Vivek Dhar: think that it's just around the corner, I think, is 125 00:06:57,930 --> 00:07:01,229 Vivek Dhar: just certainly not been the case historically in terms of 126 00:07:01,230 --> 00:07:02,880 Vivek Dhar: how markets have developed over time. 127 00:07:03,420 --> 00:07:05,189 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Vivek, we'll be back in a minute. 128 00:07:11,549 --> 00:07:14,220 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Vivek Dhar, Director of Mining and Energy 129 00:07:14,220 --> 00:07:17,880 Sean Aylmer: Commodities Research at Commonwealth Bank. Can we move on to 130 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,920 Sean Aylmer: lithium? That's the other one that's making a lot of 131 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,909 Sean Aylmer: noise or a lot of news in recent times. The 132 00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:27,149 Sean Aylmer: price of lithium has certainly tumbled over the past 12 133 00:07:27,150 --> 00:07:30,089 Sean Aylmer: months or so. Is it the same story? Is it 134 00:07:30,090 --> 00:07:31,410 Sean Aylmer: a supply- driven issue there? 135 00:07:31,980 --> 00:07:34,110 Vivek Dhar: Yeah, look, in terms of what's happened on the lithium 136 00:07:34,110 --> 00:07:37,110 Vivek Dhar: side, yes, we have seen a supply response and the 137 00:07:37,110 --> 00:07:41,130 Vivek Dhar: supply response has been meaningful enough that we've seen probably 138 00:07:41,130 --> 00:07:44,969 Vivek Dhar: a surplus expected over the next two years. And the 139 00:07:44,969 --> 00:07:47,160 Vivek Dhar: problem is that in the background, you have a lot 140 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,860 Vivek Dhar: of supply that can come on if prices get high enough, 141 00:07:50,190 --> 00:07:52,890 Vivek Dhar: that even if prices lift, you could potentially see a 142 00:07:52,890 --> 00:07:56,820 Vivek Dhar: surplus extend maybe for the next four years. So this 143 00:07:56,820 --> 00:08:00,090 Vivek Dhar: market is certainly one that has seen the supply response 144 00:08:00,090 --> 00:08:02,820 Vivek Dhar: and you've gone through the boom and bust cycle. But 145 00:08:02,820 --> 00:08:05,429 Vivek Dhar: we are still higher. When we talk about pricing or 146 00:08:05,430 --> 00:08:08,700 Vivek Dhar: certain products, we're roughly at the levels of the 2016 to 147 00:08:08,700 --> 00:08:13,320 Vivek Dhar: 2021 average for lithium. Now, slightly higher for lithium carbonate, 148 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,530 Vivek Dhar: but we are seeing that pricing return to kind of 149 00:08:16,530 --> 00:08:20,250 Vivek Dhar: those previous levels. Now, the question in terms of the 150 00:08:20,250 --> 00:08:23,789 Vivek Dhar: market is how quickly is demand going to respond because 151 00:08:23,789 --> 00:08:26,760 Vivek Dhar: we have seen EV or at least battery cell prices 152 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,190 Vivek Dhar: drop. Is that going to incentivize a new wave of 153 00:08:29,190 --> 00:08:31,920 Vivek Dhar: demand? Is that going to now drive the cycle to 154 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,010 Vivek Dhar: recover? And that's what everyone is looking at, but very 155 00:08:35,010 --> 00:08:38,009 Vivek Dhar: much towards the backend of this decade. But, yes, it 156 00:08:38,009 --> 00:08:40,709 Vivek Dhar: is a supply response story, but I would say that 157 00:08:41,219 --> 00:08:45,360 Vivek Dhar: what's happening with Indonesia, and nickel has been a very 158 00:08:45,750 --> 00:08:48,480 Vivek Dhar: different story in terms of just the investment and oversupply 159 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,780 Vivek Dhar: we're seeing in that market, but I'd say demand has 160 00:08:51,780 --> 00:08:55,770 Vivek Dhar: played a bigger role in terms of that EV slowdown 161 00:08:55,770 --> 00:08:58,949 Vivek Dhar: in terms of its uptake, particularly over the last six 162 00:08:58,949 --> 00:09:00,960 Vivek Dhar: to 12 months in the lithium market. 163 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,340 Sean Aylmer: So is this just normal cycles of commodities? I mean, 164 00:09:05,429 --> 00:09:08,130 Sean Aylmer: in Australia we're so used to hearing about iron ore 165 00:09:08,130 --> 00:09:10,679 Sean Aylmer: and coal, and we all see what's going on in China and 166 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,540 Sean Aylmer: Japan and things like that to see what's going happen 167 00:09:12,540 --> 00:09:17,850 Sean Aylmer: in iron ore and coal. These battery metals, is it 168 00:09:18,449 --> 00:09:22,078 Sean Aylmer: just a matter of normalizing things, sort of balancing out 169 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,510 Sean Aylmer: supply and demand and it might take 10, 20 years for 170 00:09:24,510 --> 00:09:25,440 Sean Aylmer: that to actually happen? 171 00:09:26,130 --> 00:09:28,770 Vivek Dhar: Yeah, look, with lithium, I'd say the exception is that 172 00:09:28,770 --> 00:09:31,830 Vivek Dhar: it's very much a nascent market. It is evolving. It 173 00:09:31,830 --> 00:09:34,588 Vivek Dhar: started very small and it's now about 30 billion in 174 00:09:34,590 --> 00:09:38,370 Vivek Dhar: size and it's growing. It's becoming a mature market. So 175 00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:41,218 Vivek Dhar: I'd say lithium is going through that cycle right now 176 00:09:41,550 --> 00:09:44,639 Vivek Dhar: of becoming a mature commodity. And in that it is 177 00:09:44,639 --> 00:09:48,389 Vivek Dhar: being seen with boom and bust cycles, which has really 178 00:09:48,389 --> 00:09:52,440 Vivek Dhar: defined it over 2022 and 2023. But in terms of the demand 179 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,730 Vivek Dhar: need for lithium, it is significant. And even though we 180 00:09:56,730 --> 00:10:00,000 Vivek Dhar: may see oversupply pressures over the next few years, it 181 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,650 Vivek Dhar: is still going to be a real challenge to get 182 00:10:01,650 --> 00:10:05,189 Vivek Dhar: enough supply by 2030. So I'd say lithium has a 183 00:10:05,190 --> 00:10:07,409 Vivek Dhar: big demand driver to it, and I think supply is 184 00:10:07,410 --> 00:10:09,509 Vivek Dhar: still challenged by the end of this decade to meet 185 00:10:09,509 --> 00:10:13,588 Vivek Dhar: that obligation. Nickel, in terms of how it's working, I'd 186 00:10:13,590 --> 00:10:17,100 Vivek Dhar: say it's more structural in terms of how Indonesia is 187 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:20,280 Vivek Dhar: pushing in new supply. And increasingly, if you look at 188 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,790 Vivek Dhar: their cost base, it is coming at very low levels 189 00:10:23,790 --> 00:10:26,639 Vivek Dhar: compared to what people thought. So I'd say what's happening 190 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:29,639 Vivek Dhar: in nickel, which is already very much a mature market, 191 00:10:30,330 --> 00:10:32,640 Vivek Dhar: what has driven it is a structural change coming out of 192 00:10:32,730 --> 00:10:35,760 Vivek Dhar: Indonesia. And as that cost comes down, it's really going 193 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,578 Vivek Dhar: to pressure the entire market. So I'd say slightly different 194 00:10:38,580 --> 00:10:40,889 Vivek Dhar: drivers in terms of what's happening between lithium and nickel. 195 00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:44,129 Vivek Dhar: It's quite nuanced, but what's happening in nickel right now 196 00:10:44,130 --> 00:10:47,189 Vivek Dhar: for me is a cause of concern because that structural 197 00:10:47,490 --> 00:10:51,480 Vivek Dhar: supply change from Indonesia, that low- cost nickel supply can 198 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,250 Vivek Dhar: be a game changer for long- term pricing. 199 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,120 Sean Aylmer: I mean, for most of us here who don't have 200 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,519 Sean Aylmer: a job like yours, Vivek, how this plays out in 201 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,639 Sean Aylmer: many ways is Australia is trying to develop those industries. 202 00:11:02,639 --> 00:11:05,369 Sean Aylmer: But of course, when you're up against competitors who are 203 00:11:05,369 --> 00:11:10,170 Sean Aylmer: very price competitive as what's happened at the Wyloo business, you're going to 204 00:11:10,170 --> 00:11:12,030 Sean Aylmer: end up with job losses and those sorts of things. 205 00:11:12,030 --> 00:11:13,980 Sean Aylmer: But I suppose that is just part of the market, isn't it? 206 00:11:14,309 --> 00:11:17,550 Vivek Dhar: That's right. At least supply is responding that when prices 207 00:11:17,550 --> 00:11:20,999 Vivek Dhar: are low, you see supply come off. It usually indicates 208 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,819 Vivek Dhar: that we're near the bottom. When these decisions are made, 209 00:11:24,119 --> 00:11:27,540 Vivek Dhar: that's generally that, okay, we've hit this point, supply is 210 00:11:27,540 --> 00:11:29,939 Vivek Dhar: responding, and then we're going to see the market enter 211 00:11:29,940 --> 00:11:33,059 Vivek Dhar: a new period and we'll see where prices settle. But 212 00:11:33,059 --> 00:11:36,150 Vivek Dhar: in terms of where the market goes, I think we 213 00:11:36,150 --> 00:11:40,050 Vivek Dhar: are going to be in for this volatility as we 214 00:11:40,109 --> 00:11:42,328 Vivek Dhar: get our grips around how much new supply is being 215 00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:46,980 Vivek Dhar: incentivized because of this green boom and just when we 216 00:11:46,980 --> 00:11:49,980 Vivek Dhar: need that supply, it's not so much near dated as 217 00:11:49,980 --> 00:11:51,929 Vivek Dhar: it is backdated. And that's going to be the battle 218 00:11:51,929 --> 00:11:56,098 Vivek Dhar: for these transition metals over the next, I'd say, few years. 219 00:11:56,370 --> 00:11:58,140 Sean Aylmer: Vivek, thanks for talking to Fear and Greed. 220 00:11:58,619 --> 00:11:59,010 Vivek Dhar: Thank you. 221 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,819 Sean Aylmer: That was Vivek Dhar, Director of Mining and Energy Commodities 222 00:12:02,820 --> 00:12:06,000 Sean Aylmer: Research at Commonwealth Bank. This is the Fear and Greed 223 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,540 Sean Aylmer: Business Interview. Remember, if you are making an investment decision, 224 00:12:09,719 --> 00:12:13,020 Sean Aylmer: always seek out personal advice. Join us every morning for 225 00:12:13,020 --> 00:12:15,299 Sean Aylmer: the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's best business 226 00:12:15,299 --> 00:12:17,730 Sean Aylmer: podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.