WEBVTT - The end of the Gaza ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>One week ago, the ceasefire in Gaza collapsed as Israel

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<v Speaker 1>launched a series of air strikes. Since then, more than

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<v Speaker 1>six hundred people have been killed, including children, according to

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza's health ministry. Israel says the attacks were aimed at

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<v Speaker 1>Hermas's surviving leadership, and just a few days ago Hamas

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<v Speaker 1>confirmed its top political leader has been killed. As the

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<v Speaker 1>war reignites, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is weighing his

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<v Speaker 1>own political survival. Today, Middle East correspondent for The Economist,

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Carlstrom on what the end of the ceasefire means

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<v Speaker 1>for the people of Gaza and what Trump wants out

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<v Speaker 1>of the next stage of war is Tuesday, March twenty five, Greg,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for speaking of us again, my pleasure. So

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<v Speaker 1>Israel has launched renewed attacks on Gaza over the past week.

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<v Speaker 1>We're hearing the death toll in Gaza has now surpassed

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<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand people since the war began. Can you tell

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<v Speaker 1>me why it is that we've seen this attack at

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<v Speaker 1>this moment, given that there had been a ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what's happened is First. The Trump administration has

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<v Speaker 2>to some extent lost interest in trying to preserve the

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<v Speaker 2>agreement that they pushed through in January. You know, the

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<v Speaker 2>first phase of the deal expired a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 2>What was meant to happen in early February was that

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<v Speaker 2>Israel and Hamas were meant to start negotiations about getting

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<v Speaker 2>to Phase two, getting to a permanent end to the

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<v Speaker 2>war and a release of all of the Israeli hostages

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<v Speaker 2>who were still being held in Gaza. Nathaniel never wanted

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<v Speaker 2>to get to phase two because his far right coalition

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<v Speaker 2>partners have made it clear that they would leave the

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<v Speaker 2>government and collapse the coalition if the war came to

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<v Speaker 2>a permanent end. So the Americans for a while were

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<v Speaker 2>trying to find a way to bridge that gap between

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<v Speaker 2>what the Israelis want and what Hamas wants. There was

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<v Speaker 2>talk of trying to extend Phase one of the ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps by another month or two, but Hamas stuck to

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<v Speaker 2>its demand that it wants the war to end. The

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis were not willing to do that. The Trump administration

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<v Speaker 2>was not willing to put the kind of pressure on

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<v Speaker 2>Israel that it would have needed to apply to convince

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<v Speaker 2>Israel to get to phase two, and so because of

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's refusal to even begin those negotiations, eventually we got to.

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<v Speaker 3>A point where where the deal simply collapsed.

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<v Speaker 1>And so since that happened, since the deal collapsed, can

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<v Speaker 1>you tell me a bit more about what we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>In some ways it almost mirrors what happened at the

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<v Speaker 2>start of the war back in October twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 2>In the first days after the end, we saw Israel

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<v Speaker 2>resume very heavy air strikes on Gaza. As you said,

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<v Speaker 2>there have been reports of many people killed across the territory,

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<v Speaker 2>strikes on hospitals, strikes on civilian areas, a large death toll.

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<v Speaker 2>And then in the past couple of days, we've also

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<v Speaker 2>seen Israeli troops going back into Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>On the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>In Ruffa, for example, in the far south of Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>near the border with Egypt, the Israeli army is encircling

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<v Speaker 2>the city of Ruffa. They're telling Palestinians who were living

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<v Speaker 2>in that city to flee to the north.

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<v Speaker 3>At the same time, Israel has also cut off.

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<v Speaker 2>The main corridors linking between South Gaza and North Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>something that they did earlier in the war, and those

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<v Speaker 2>two territories were largely separated for much of the fighting.

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<v Speaker 2>So the idea here for the Israeli Army, as you

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<v Speaker 2>know officers have described it in recent weeks, is to

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<v Speaker 2>essentially kettle the entire civilian population of Gaza into what's

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<v Speaker 2>called Elmwasi, the so called safe zone in the southern

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<v Speaker 2>half of the Strip, and then to go in quite

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<v Speaker 2>strongly on the ground everywhere else in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>And in Phase one we saw this transfer of hostages

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<v Speaker 1>and release of Palestinian prisoners who were able to return.

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<v Speaker 1>So after that, how many hostages are left?

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<v Speaker 2>There are still fifty nine hostages remaining in Gaza. Most

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<v Speaker 2>of them are thought to have either been killed on

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh and their bodies were taken to the Strip

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<v Speaker 2>by Hamas or subsequently died either from Israeli airstrikes on

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<v Speaker 2>the Strip, from hunger, from disease, from abuse by their captors.

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<v Speaker 2>So most of these hostages are unfortunately dead bodies.

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<v Speaker 3>But the goal when.

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<v Speaker 2>They were talking about extending Phase one of the agreement

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<v Speaker 2>was to secure the release of at least some of

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<v Speaker 2>the living hostages who were still being held in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>who are only about a quarter or so of the total.

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<v Speaker 2>And obviously there's a tremendous amount of anger in Israel

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<v Speaker 2>right now. Poll after pol of Israeli has showed that

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<v Speaker 2>a majority of the public wanted to get to Phase two.

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<v Speaker 2>They didn't want the government to forsake these remaining hostages

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza and.

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<v Speaker 3>Sort of leave them to their fate.

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<v Speaker 2>But the view in Israel is that Mettaniell has done

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<v Speaker 2>exactly that now by resuming the war.

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<v Speaker 1>And can you talk to me a little more about

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<v Speaker 1>the position domestically speaking for Netnahu right now, because we

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<v Speaker 1>have seen mass protests across Israel. Tell me about what

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<v Speaker 1>people are demanding and how sequen Nenya who feels at

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<v Speaker 1>this moment there's a.

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<v Speaker 2>Huge amount of popular anger directed at Nataniel but not

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<v Speaker 2>only now over this issue, also over what he is

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<v Speaker 2>doing to Israeli democracy. In the past week, has tried

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<v Speaker 2>to dismiss the head of the shin Bet, the domestic

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<v Speaker 2>security service in Israel. The also yesterday passed a no

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<v Speaker 2>confidence motion against the Attorney General. Natanielle is seeking to

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<v Speaker 2>remove the Attorney General. Both of these people are seen

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<v Speaker 2>as critics of the Prime minister. He sees them as

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<v Speaker 2>his domestic political enemies. Of course, the Attorney General is

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<v Speaker 2>also overseeing the corruption cases against Prime Minister Nathanielle that

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<v Speaker 2>have been working their way through the courts for years.

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<v Speaker 2>He's been accused of in three different cases, accused of

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<v Speaker 2>acts of corruption. The problem is, despite all of this anger,

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<v Speaker 2>what do you do with that politically? For the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>he seems secure in his coalition. Restarting the Gualsa war

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<v Speaker 2>has reinforced his support on the far right amongst those

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<v Speaker 2>parties that had threatened to leave.

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<v Speaker 3>If the war ended.

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<v Speaker 2>So the coalition I think is going to close ranks

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<v Speaker 2>right now and try to hold together. And so even

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<v Speaker 2>though most Israelis walk that coalition out of power, it's

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<v Speaker 2>hard to see how they translate that I anger into

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<v Speaker 2>political change.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break Trump Netanyahu and the latest

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<v Speaker 1>on America's plans to take over Gaza greg the White

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<v Speaker 1>House confirmed that they were aware that the air strikes

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<v Speaker 1>were going to begin again. At the same time, we've

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<v Speaker 1>heard Trump claiming to want peace in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>So you said that the administration has lost interest in

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<v Speaker 1>the agreement that they pushed for. Why do you think

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<v Speaker 1>that is.

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<v Speaker 2>I think one issue is Steve Witkoff, who is the

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<v Speaker 2>administration's Middle East envoy. You know, by all accounts, is

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<v Speaker 2>said to care personally about the plate of the hostages

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<v Speaker 2>and to care personally about trying to bring the war

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza to an end. But Steve Witkoff is very

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<v Speaker 2>distracted right now. He also is handling some of these

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. He's looking to pass the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran as well in the

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<v Speaker 2>coming months. So he has an enormous portfolio. He doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>have many people working for him. He is simply overstretched.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Trump himself. I was in DC a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of weeks ago, and the sense that I got talking

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<v Speaker 2>to people close to the administration is that Trump cared

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<v Speaker 2>about getting the cease fire in place during the transition

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<v Speaker 2>before he took office in January, because it was something

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<v Speaker 2>that he could say he accomplished where Joe Biden failed.

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<v Speaker 2>But after two months of subsequent impasse over getting to

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<v Speaker 2>phase two, Trump is just getting bored of this and

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<v Speaker 2>he has other things he wants to focus on, and

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<v Speaker 2>so there's not a high level presidential attention on this.

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<v Speaker 3>And then the.

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<v Speaker 2>Rest of the administration is deeply understaffed. So you put

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<v Speaker 2>all of those things together, and then you add some

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<v Speaker 2>very intense lobbying, particularly by Ron Dermer, who is Nathaniel's

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<v Speaker 2>right hand man, who has been to America a number

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<v Speaker 2>of times in recent months, who has been telling Republicans,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, listen, we have a plan for how to

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<v Speaker 2>win this war. Now, we couldn't win it before because

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden put restrictions on our conduct in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you give us a free hand, then we

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<v Speaker 3>can win this thing in a couple of months.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what does that actually look like for Gaza?

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<v Speaker 2>So last year during the war, there was a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of talk about something called the General's Plan, which was

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<v Speaker 2>a proposal written by a number of retired Israeli.

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<v Speaker 4>Generals in Israel, there are alarming signs that the Israeli

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<v Speaker 4>military is beginning to quietly implement the General's Plan. Now

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<v Speaker 4>that's a dramatic strategy to force anybody left in the

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<v Speaker 4>north to evacuate, to surrender, or starve.

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<v Speaker 2>The idea they had for how they wanted to prosecute

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<v Speaker 2>the war was to cut off humanitarian aid entirely into

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<v Speaker 2>the northern half of Gaza, even in the south of Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>to greatly restrict the flow of aid outside of al

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<v Speaker 2>mowassee this designated humanitarian area. The idea was not to

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<v Speaker 2>allow NGOs or other groups to distribute aid in other

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<v Speaker 2>parts of Gaza. I think to some extent, what we're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing now is that plan being implemented. So they are

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<v Speaker 2>going to lay waste to the territory. They are going

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<v Speaker 2>to destroy even more of the north that has already

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<v Speaker 2>been destroyed. They are going to try and tightly restrict

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<v Speaker 2>the movement of people, the movement of aid.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, it's not clear how long any of

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<v Speaker 3>this is going to last.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israelis have been saying it might only need a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of months, but they were also saying that in

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<v Speaker 2>October twenty twenty three, and the war wound up lasting

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<v Speaker 2>for more than a year.

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<v Speaker 1>And you said earlier it seems that Trump has lost

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<v Speaker 1>interest in a ceasefire. Has he also lost interest in

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<v Speaker 1>a takeover of Gaza and this idea of developing it

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<v Speaker 1>into the riviera of the Middle East. That was what

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<v Speaker 1>he said the last time that we spoke, And I

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<v Speaker 1>think that often his statements get reported on and then dropped.

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<v Speaker 1>But I just wonder what your thoughts are now and

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<v Speaker 1>whether there's any actual strength behind those intentions.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, and with the caveat that, no one is entirely

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<v Speaker 2>sure what is in Donald Trump's mind. I think there

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<v Speaker 2>are two parts to that plan, right. One of them

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<v Speaker 2>is removing the population of Gaza, depopulating the territory, sending two.

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<v Speaker 3>Million people elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 2>The other part of it is this crazy plan to

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<v Speaker 2>turn it into an American riviera, sort of Atlantic city

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<v Speaker 2>on the Mediterranean. I think on that latter piece, certainly,

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<v Speaker 2>the view in Washington, amongst both Republicans and Democrats, is

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump is not actually serious about building a riviera there,

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<v Speaker 2>that this is a negotiating tactic, that this is something

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<v Speaker 2>that he became fixated on as a way to pressure

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<v Speaker 2>Arab states into presenting their own plan for Gaza. On

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<v Speaker 2>the first part of that, though, on the idea of

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<v Speaker 2>removing Gaza's population, the view is that he is serious

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<v Speaker 2>about that, and the genesis of that was a phone

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<v Speaker 2>call with Steve Witcoff, his middle envoy, who visited Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>back in January, who saw how destroyed the territory was,

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<v Speaker 2>and who subsequently called Trump and said you know, there's

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<v Speaker 2>no way this is going to be rebuilt if the

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<v Speaker 2>people are still here. There needs to be some solution

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<v Speaker 2>that moves them elsewhere. That phone call happened, and shortly

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<v Speaker 2>afterwards Trump started talking about depopulating the territory. But the

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<v Speaker 2>administration is sort of going around the world trying to

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<v Speaker 2>find countries that might be willing to accept some financial

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<v Speaker 2>benefits in exchange for taking in large numbers of people.

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<v Speaker 2>So I do think he is serious about pursuing that

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<v Speaker 2>part of the plan.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, And what about short term? What should we expect.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been a week since the ceasefive fell apart. I

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<v Speaker 1>think just over six hundred people have died in that time.

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<v Speaker 1>So what should we be expecting to see over the

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<v Speaker 1>next few weeks in Gaza?

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<v Speaker 3>I think in terms of Gaza itself.

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<v Speaker 2>Remember, even before Israel restarted the war, it had cut

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<v Speaker 2>off all aid going into Gaza for about two weeks

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<v Speaker 2>before it resumed fighting. So the un AID agencies were

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<v Speaker 2>already saying that some supplies were either running low. Bakeries

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<v Speaker 2>for example, we're running out of cooking gas to fire

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<v Speaker 2>their ovens, and so some of the very very few

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<v Speaker 2>bakeries that are still operating in Gaza were forced to

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<v Speaker 2>shut down, hospitals were reporting shortages. That was already a problem,

0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.880
<v Speaker 2>That problem is going to get much much bigger now

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 2>because aid is not going in, and because what aid

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 2>is still in Gaza, it's getting very hard to distribute that.

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 2>Many AID groups have suspended the movement of their personnel

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 2>around Gaza because they're just not sure right now where

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.120
<v Speaker 2>it's safe to go, where people can deliver aid without

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 2>taking too much personal risks. So the humanitarian situation I think,

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:46.280
<v Speaker 2>is going to get much worse very quickly. The question

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:49.960
<v Speaker 2>then becomes is there some effort on the part of

0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.599
<v Speaker 2>the Americans to go back to this idea of a

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 2>bridging proposal of extending phase one of the agreement, convincing

0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 2>Hamas to release a few more hostages in exchange for

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 2>a few more weeks of calm. But it's hard to

0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 2>see how that's going to be successful in Lttagnelle for

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 2>political reasons, may not want to do that to pause

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 2>the war again, and Hamas at this point, I think,

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 2>is going to be very reluctant to make another short

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 2>term deal where they have no guarantee that it's going

0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 2>to bring a permanent end to the fighting.

0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>Greg, thank you so much for your time.

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having me.

0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, both the Abeneze government and

0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.800
<v Speaker 1>the opposition are sprooking their economic policies ahead of the

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>delivery of the federal budget tonight. The government is promising

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.200
<v Speaker 1>cost of living relief, including a one hundred and fifty

0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 1>dollars energy bill rebate divided across the final two quarters

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 1>of this year. The opposition says it supports the rebate,

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 1>while also claiming that a coalition government would bring down

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>energy prices by increasing Australia's domestic gas supply. And Queensland

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>has joined other states in signing a deal with the

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 1>federal government to fully fund public schools by twenty thirty four.

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 1>The deal will see the Commonwealth lift its share of

0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 1>public school funding from twenty to twenty five percent, requiring

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 1>states to increase funding of public schools to seventy five

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 1>percent of the minimum amount recommended by the twenty twelve

0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Gonski Review. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. See

0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>you tomorrow.