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Speaker 1: We love this man. He gives his numbers probability. And

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what statistics and numbers.

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Speaker 2: Will always see for breaking.

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Speaker 1: Every single day in our lives at the moment. This

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Speaker 1: man knows them better than anyone else. It's the magnificent.

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Speaker 3: As I like to think of myself as the human

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Speaker 3: bell curve.

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Speaker 2: Guys, Wow, especially with that Beanie on at Home.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you said curve at the end and not in.

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Speaker 2: That's a different thing altogether, Spence. Can we start by

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Speaker 2: the guy who joins on the show this morning and

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Speaker 2: he was also Friday, John Bernard. He's the one that's

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Speaker 2: predicting the numbers. He says he's doing it mathematically. There's

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Speaker 2: a couple of other theories running around about how he

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Speaker 2: gets the figures before Gladys announces it. What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Just I thought I was the coolest mathematician on TikTok.

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Speaker 3: Along comes this young punk yeah and set it up. Look,

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Speaker 3: I'll you I will not one thing he explained the

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Speaker 3: other night. I think on the project the way he

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Speaker 3: does was he says, I take the diameter of fair

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Speaker 3: Field and the perimeter of southwest Sydney, so this is

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Speaker 3: a guy who's spitting out the only words he can

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Speaker 3: remember from years mathematics. At least throw in a bit

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Speaker 3: of signed cosin tan for the love of course. I

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Speaker 3: noticed when he had the one where he had the

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Speaker 3: whiteboard over his shoulder, if you look at the diagram

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the whiteboard, that's actually the problem

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Speaker 3: that Matt Damon solves in goodwill and computed. That's a

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Speaker 3: problem on homeomorphically irreducible trees of order ten. It's got

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Speaker 3: nothing to do with statistics or epidemiology. He's either got

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Speaker 3: an inside source or it could be a hack in

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Speaker 3: the code. I presume the way they get the number

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Speaker 3: is all the testing centers around Sydney, PLoP them somewhere

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Speaker 3: and they add them up. If someone's got a little

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Speaker 3: hack access to that, you'd get a pretty accurate number.

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Speaker 3: I think you're both more likely than he's dividing the

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Speaker 3: circumference of Fairfield by the by the parameter of the

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Speaker 3: parabola of his grandmother's first birthday.

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Speaker 1: See Spence. We get these numbers every day, but can

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Speaker 1: you please point out to us which are the really

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Speaker 1: important ones?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it is. It's an absolute tsunami of numbers at

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Speaker 3: the moment, isn't it For me? That's pornography. For a

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Speaker 3: lot of people, it's a little bit freaking down the

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Speaker 3: really I mean, you want the total number to come down,

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Speaker 3: but the really important number is the number of people

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Speaker 3: who have been infectious in the community. Yes, all or

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Speaker 3: part of that time. So the other day in Melbourne

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Speaker 3: they had eighteen new cases, but seventeen of them have

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Speaker 3: been pretty much locked away or out frontly a day.

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Speaker 3: The other day we had twenty seven people out in

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Speaker 3: the community for the entire and every one of those

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Speaker 3: creates twenty or thirty phone calls that the contact traces

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Speaker 3: really need to make. There's only two people like that,

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Speaker 3: that's thirty forty phone calls they can do that. It's

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Speaker 3: twenty seven people, that's almost a thousand phone calls they

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Speaker 3: desperately need to land. That's when they talk about the

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Speaker 3: contact traces getting behind the.

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Speaker 2: Guess, yes, Spence, we're racing to try and get the vaccine,

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Speaker 2: as we all know as a community and are. But

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Speaker 2: we talk about also the UK and their numbers and

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Speaker 2: they could you know, they've been doubling daily. It's scary

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Speaker 2: over there. But a lot of the community is vaccine

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Speaker 2: or had the vaccine. Vaccinated is the word I'm looking

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Speaker 2: for is how does that sit for everybody else? Because

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Speaker 2: I feel like there's sort of a test case in

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Speaker 2: themselves over there.

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Speaker 3: It's a dangerous situation. In the UK, twelve hundred concerned

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Speaker 3: scientists wrote a letter recently saying your policy they're calling

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Speaker 3: today freedom day of just letting it rip and seeing

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Speaker 3: what happens is really dangerous. Note the Health Minister of

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Speaker 3: the United Kingdom came down with COVID in the last

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Speaker 3: twenty four hours. Now if that's not a sign that

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Speaker 3: letting it rip might be. The problem is every time

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Speaker 3: one of these particles reproduces itself replicates, there's a chance

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Speaker 3: there's a small error in the code. That's when your

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Speaker 3: variants come. Sure, you may have got fifty thousand new

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Speaker 3: cases a day. They're saying it could double to one

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Speaker 3: hundred thousand if all those people just get out in

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Speaker 3: the community and spread it. Even if on the quarter

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Speaker 3: of the community hasn't had the vaccine yet got the vaccine,

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Speaker 3: can still get this thing and pass it on. The

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Speaker 3: real fear is if they create some nasty variant that

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Speaker 3: might not even be stoppable by there or any other vaccines.

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Speaker 3: It's a giant dish and it's a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a dangerous experiment here.

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Speaker 1: Wat what if we do find a variant that is

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Speaker 1: so much more lethal than the delta variant that we

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Speaker 1: have now, could it actually wipe us out?

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Speaker 3: Spence people think what would happen if we found something

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Speaker 3: that was a thousand times as lethal? To be honest,

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Speaker 3: that sort of things possibly not as dangerous. It'd be

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Speaker 3: horrible to get, but it probably burns itself out. Takes

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Speaker 3: something like a bowler that's incredibly deadly, so deadly you

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Speaker 3: get it, then you die, don't You don't go down

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Speaker 3: to Bunnings and Ikea and a couple of mates houses

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Speaker 3: have a GDB you're not meant to when you've got

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Speaker 3: a bowler. Far more, far more dangerous, would be a

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Speaker 3: variant that's just a little bit more lethal than this, Yes,

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Speaker 3: or one that you didn't show symptoms for a bit longer,

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Speaker 3: or you could have it. You can have a small

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Speaker 3: twist on this. The vaccines we're taking now, we're designed

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Speaker 3: for the COVID of eighteen months ago. So if we

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Speaker 3: get the brother of the cousin of the cousin of

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Speaker 3: the step sister of original COVID light tweak and the

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Speaker 3: vaccines don't work anymore. We're back to square one. That

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Speaker 3: concerns me more than some super deadly strain.

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Speaker 2: Spence, Well, that would mean that we would live like

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Speaker 2: we do with the flu, where that evolves and there

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Speaker 2: are variants every year, and the flu shot is updated

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Speaker 2: and continued to supersede the one prior to. So would

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Speaker 2: we see ourselves possibly getting a yearly COVID JAB.

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Speaker 3: If the number of COVID variants settled down to like

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Speaker 3: the flu does, where it's predictable. It's bad, but it's

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Speaker 3: not too nasty. You can see it coming six months

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Speaker 3: in advance from the northern hemisphere. It's not inconceivable. Some

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Speaker 3: people do say we might well live. Will never stamp

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Speaker 3: this thing out entirely. It will just be something that

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Speaker 3: people live with and on the rare occasion you get

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Speaker 3: really sick, you hope that you could be dealt with

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Speaker 3: and your hospital can handle it. And unfortunately the older

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Speaker 3: and the more vulnerable will occasionally from COVID. But it's

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Speaker 3: just too early to say at the moment if this

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Speaker 3: is going to settle down, And I'm not an expert

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Speaker 3: in the field, but from what I understand, settled down

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Speaker 3: into manageable chunks. Like even the really bad flues, most

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Speaker 3: of them are comparatively manageable compared to maybe some verit

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Speaker 3: of this that goes off the rails.

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Speaker 1: Unfortunately, and I spence, you've had your double dose. Unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: Over the weekend we lost another person here in New

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Speaker 1: South Wales in his nineties. He passed away. Can you

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Speaker 1: please just for everyone out there, numbers wise just spent

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Speaker 1: how important it is to get vaccinated and your chances

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Speaker 1: of getting it and being hospitalized and then leading to

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Speaker 1: death if you are vaccinated.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, from my understanding, of the one hundred cases of

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Speaker 3: the other day, only one person had had a single

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Speaker 3: dose of the vaccine. Everyone else was unvaccinated. The vaccine

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Speaker 3: seems to be very very effective at the moment, and

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Speaker 3: it's surprising how easy in some places you can get it.

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Speaker 3: I'm on the Central Coast and I looked it up.

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Speaker 3: My local doctor down the street was just given them

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Speaker 3: out and I went down a few days later. Now,

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Speaker 3: that's not the busiest doctor's surgery in Australia, but take

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Speaker 3: yeh for yourself. Look online. It's a little bit difficult

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Speaker 3: to negotiate and navigate in some ways, but you might

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Speaker 3: be surprised how easy it is. Look, the most important

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Speaker 3: number in all of this, guys, is the number one,

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Speaker 3: and that's you. If you're listening today, Okay, you're the

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Speaker 3: person who's in control of how much you get out.

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Speaker 3: Don't get out unless you really have to. If you do,

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Speaker 3: use QR codes like a boss. If someone does ring

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Speaker 3: you from yourself as well as health and say you

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Speaker 3: might have come in contact, for the love of God,

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Speaker 3: don't lie. It's like your mum used to say at

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Speaker 3: a party, if someone has too much drink and fall over,

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Speaker 3: ring me straight away. Just fess up and tell the truth. Yes,

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Speaker 3: and the best one I've heard for all of the

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Speaker 3: boys is this. And I'll leave you with this. Don't

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Speaker 3: walk around thinking a few people.

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Speaker 1: Here have this.

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Speaker 3: I've got to avoid them. Walk around assuming you've got it. Yep,

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Speaker 3: and you don't want to give it to anyone else.

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Speaker 3: At that level of caution and protection about yourself, and

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Speaker 3: within a few weeks hopefully things will have improved massively.

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Speaker 1: Adam Spence, Wow, thank you. It's a calming voice, isn't

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Speaker 1: it clear?

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Speaker 2: How good was Buddy Franklin yesterday, Spence.

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Speaker 3: The only numb we need to know four big goals

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Speaker 3: of the busters and places on a Plaza was good.

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Speaker 1: I'm running high the Swan, Spence.

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Speaker 3: We love you mate, Thank you very much for coming

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Speaker 3: on Pleasure Boys. See everybody by.

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Speaker 2: It fits in with her