WEBVTT - John Bolton thinks bombing Iran is the answer

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<v Speaker 1>John Bolton has spent years arguing that bombing Iran isn't

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<v Speaker 1>just justified, but necessary.

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<v Speaker 2>Because Iran, for many decades has been the world central

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<v Speaker 2>banker of international terrorism, funding Shia Sunni terrorist on an

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<v Speaker 2>equal opportunity basis.

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<v Speaker 1>For decades, he's argued that American military force has solved

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<v Speaker 1>the problem of hostile regimes in the Middle East. He

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<v Speaker 1>backed the invasion of Iraq, champion some of the most

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<v Speaker 1>disastrous American interventions of the modern era, and despite that,

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<v Speaker 1>he's still arguing more force, more intervention, and more regime

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<v Speaker 1>change will bring stability to the Middle East. Now, as

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<v Speaker 1>the US escalates again, Bolton's worldview is back at the

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<v Speaker 1>center of the debate, a world view that when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to Iran, our government shares. I'm Daniel James and

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<v Speaker 1>you're listening to seven am today former US National Security

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<v Speaker 1>Advisor John Bolton on the strikes on Iran and why

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<v Speaker 1>a man who backed the invasion of Iraq still sees

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<v Speaker 1>bombing as the answer. It's Friday, March twelve, Ambassador Bolton.

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<v Speaker 1>This war has been criticized by world leaders, by international

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<v Speaker 1>policy experts, by politicians in our country and in yours.

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<v Speaker 1>You say it's legally questionable, strategically risky, and morally unjustified.

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<v Speaker 2>We seem to be on a path without any clear

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<v Speaker 2>aestimati on cost.

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<v Speaker 3>The powers involved in this conflict must immediately cease hostilities

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<v Speaker 3>and commit to dialogue and diplomacy.

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<v Speaker 1>Blo Mafia.

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<v Speaker 3>Nobody believes that Donald Trump is engaged in this war

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<v Speaker 3>on the side of the Iranian people for democracy and

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<v Speaker 3>human rights.

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<v Speaker 1>Why then, do you think it was the right call

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<v Speaker 1>for America to bomb our aunt Well?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the objective of regime change in Iran, which

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<v Speaker 2>may or may not be Donald Trump's objective, who knows,

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<v Speaker 2>But I think legitimate reason here is that we've had

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<v Speaker 2>ample demonstration over a sustained period of time that Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>quest for deliverable nuclear weapons and its support for international

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<v Speaker 2>terrorism in the Middle East and around the world is

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<v Speaker 2>a threat to our security, the security of Israel, the

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<v Speaker 2>security of our friends in the our world, and really

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<v Speaker 2>the West as a whole, and that it's been demonstrated

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<v Speaker 2>that there is no alternative that will eliminate the threat

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<v Speaker 2>other than taking military action against the regime in hopes

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<v Speaker 2>of toppling it and giving the people of Iran the

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<v Speaker 2>chance to take control of their own government. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's strategically necessary. I think it's perfectly legitimate, and

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<v Speaker 2>indeed it is the moral thing to do to rid

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<v Speaker 2>the world of this abhorrent autocracy.

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<v Speaker 1>Knowing Donald Trump as you do, and having worked along

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<v Speaker 1>beside him, how much confidence, if any, do you have

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<v Speaker 1>that this decision was driven by a coherent strategy rather

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<v Speaker 1>than impuls because in the dice. Since the stroke, the

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<v Speaker 1>White House has offered shifting explanations of itsimes, including mixed

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<v Speaker 1>messages about regime change to terrence and durriction of the conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'm sure it was not driven by a coherent strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>He doesn't do coherent strategy. He doesn't have a philosophy,

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<v Speaker 2>he doesn't do policy the way we normally understand it.

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<v Speaker 1>You just said it is a little excursion and you

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<v Speaker 1>said it is a war.

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<v Speaker 2>So which one is it?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's both. It's both. It's an excursion that will

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<v Speaker 4>keep us out of a war, and the war is

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<v Speaker 4>going to be uh, I mean for them, it's a war.

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<v Speaker 4>For us, it's turned out to be easier than we thought.

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<v Speaker 4>But think of it. They had thousands of missiles, seven

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<v Speaker 4>eight thousand missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>I tried to persuading that our objective should be regime

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<v Speaker 2>change back in the first term, obviously without success. And

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<v Speaker 2>I have to say, I'm still wondering who had the

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<v Speaker 2>magic words that made him change his mind this time?

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<v Speaker 1>Was it Benjamin na Perhaps?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think so, because that's been that Nahu's

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<v Speaker 2>policy for a long time, including in the first term.

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<v Speaker 2>He's thought about regime change because of its implications for

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<v Speaker 2>Israel longer and harder than anybody else. And he wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>able to persuade Trump in the first term. So there's

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<v Speaker 2>something out there that did this, And I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what it was, and I don't know how long it

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<v Speaker 2>will last. It may have faded already.

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<v Speaker 1>You say that lock Trump, you want raging change, but

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<v Speaker 1>already the slain Autoritoles been replaced by his son. He

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<v Speaker 1>was close with the Revolutionary Guard. Di you CoA said

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<v Speaker 1>that to be raging change, and what good's that change?

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<v Speaker 1>The replacement leader is just as bad or worse.

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<v Speaker 2>No, to me, regime change it means getting rid of

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<v Speaker 2>not only the Iotolas but the Revolutionary Guard. I could

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<v Speaker 2>make a pretty good argument that functionally the Revolutionary Guard

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<v Speaker 2>is in charge of the country. Now they control the

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear and ballistic missile programs. By most estimates, they control

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<v Speaker 2>at least forty percent of Iran's economy, and the Iatola's

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<v Speaker 2>served mainly as theological cover, kind of ideological legitimacy for

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<v Speaker 2>the regime itself.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know.

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<v Speaker 2>The sign of the former Supreme leader, it's you know,

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<v Speaker 2>new bo, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

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<v Speaker 1>Us intelligence has warned that there's not a strong alternative

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<v Speaker 1>opposition in our oan, So heady get raging change in

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<v Speaker 1>those conditions.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the regime is more unpopular and weaker than at

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<v Speaker 2>any point since it took power in nineteen seventy nine.

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<v Speaker 2>The demonstrations in December and January were caused fundamentally by

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<v Speaker 2>really economic conditions that have taken the economy to its

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<v Speaker 2>lowest point in anybody's memory. Today's demonstrations the largest so far,

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<v Speaker 2>and in their second week, flames and fury over the

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<v Speaker 2>country's currency falling to a record low. According to the

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<v Speaker 2>young people, who amount two thirds of the people under

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<v Speaker 2>thirty are dissatisfied. They know they could have a different life.

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<v Speaker 2>They can see it across the Gulf. The women have

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<v Speaker 2>been dissatisfied for three years or more after the murder

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<v Speaker 2>of Masiamini, the young Kurdish woman who defied the iatola's

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<v Speaker 2>command to wear the he job. And one thing about

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<v Speaker 2>the opposition of the women. Every ayetola, every revolutionary guard

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<v Speaker 2>general has a mother, A lot of them have sisters,

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<v Speaker 2>wives and daughters, and they hear the same thing from

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<v Speaker 2>all of them. So the effect of these US and

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli airstrikes is to destabilize the regime at the top,

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<v Speaker 2>to open fractures in the regime, to get the leaders

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<v Speaker 2>going at each other. And I think the elevation of

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<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Leader's son to the Supreme Leader position has

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<v Speaker 2>already helped increase those fractures. The whole concept of the

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<v Speaker 2>Islamic Revolution, I think has to be thrown out ultimately.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's what the people of Iran want. What

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<v Speaker 2>kind of government they want going forward, I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>and I can tell you one thing, We're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to dictate it from the outside.

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<v Speaker 1>Both the International Atomic Energy Agency and US intelligence assists

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<v Speaker 1>that Iran's weapons program was shot in two thousand and three.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran hasn't reached uranium to dangerous levels, but that's not

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing as proven weaponization. The Iraq War was

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<v Speaker 1>sold on weapons development claims that turned out to be

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<v Speaker 1>utterly false. Why should audiences trust youal certainty and the

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<v Speaker 1>certainty of the administration when the central premise of what

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<v Speaker 1>happened in Iraq was so catastrophically wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think the central Iraq premise was so

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<v Speaker 2>catastrophically wrong. In fact, you now have Democrats in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States. This is very interesting saying that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the bombing of Iran's nuclear weapons program isn't going to

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<v Speaker 2>end as the nuclear threat. They say, the knowledge of

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<v Speaker 2>how to build a nuclear program can't be a ra

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<v Speaker 2>by bombing. They are correct, and in Iraq, after the

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<v Speaker 2>UN found after the First Golf War a much more

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<v Speaker 2>extensive nuclear weapons program in Iraq than anybody had known before,

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<v Speaker 2>and they dismantled that in the nineties into the George W.

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<v Speaker 2>Bush administration, Sodom Hussein kept together three thousand roughly roughly

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<v Speaker 2>three thousand nuclear scientists and technicians. He called them his

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear Mujahideen, and these people had the intellectual capacity to

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<v Speaker 2>rebuild the nuclear weapons program, which was one reason we

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<v Speaker 2>thought Saddam was a threat that is precisely what the

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic senators and others are saying today. Trump's bombing of

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<v Speaker 2>the nuclear facilities will not accomplish. When you see the

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<v Speaker 2>persistence with which the Iranians have pursued nuclear weapons, it's

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<v Speaker 2>very clear they regard this as something central to their

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<v Speaker 2>regimes legitimacy. They're not going to give it up. They'll

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<v Speaker 2>negotiate to give it up, they'll make all kinds of concessions,

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<v Speaker 2>but they will never stop that pursuit. And when you

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<v Speaker 2>combine it with what they've done in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>support of terrorist groups, and you listen to them for

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<v Speaker 2>forty seven years chant death to America, you know eventually

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<v Speaker 2>you should take it.

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<v Speaker 1>Seriously coming out what's an acceptable amount of bloodshed to

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<v Speaker 1>bring down the regime? Ambassador, we know from Iraq, Afghanistan,

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<v Speaker 1>and Libya that toppling regimes is easier than building stable

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<v Speaker 1>states afterwards. How will Iron be any different to the

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<v Speaker 1>chaos and long term conflict we saw after American interventions there?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think the three cases are at all similar.

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<v Speaker 2>I think in the case of Afghanistan, the mistake we

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<v Speaker 2>made was in trying to build a central, unitary state,

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<v Speaker 2>which was contrary to a millennium of afghan culture. I

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<v Speaker 2>think we could have left well enough alone in many senses,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think the biggest mistake we made in Afghanistan

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<v Speaker 2>was leaving, because if we were still there, we'd have

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<v Speaker 2>much greater visibility into the risk of terrorist attack. I

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<v Speaker 2>think our mistake in Iraq was not overthrowing Saddam. That

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<v Speaker 2>was an incredible military success. It was setting up the

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<v Speaker 2>Coalition provisional Authority and becoming a governing force, a political

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<v Speaker 2>player in Iraqi affairs. Was done with the best of intentions,

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<v Speaker 2>but it was a mistake. I think we should have

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<v Speaker 2>turned matters back to the Iraqis as early as possible

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<v Speaker 2>and let them decide what they want to do and

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<v Speaker 2>make the mistakes that we made and learned from them.

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<v Speaker 2>In the case of Iran, that's why I described a

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<v Speaker 2>moment ago. I think a military government and interim kind

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<v Speaker 2>of regime, at least one that's not run by religious fanatics,

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<v Speaker 2>is going to be necessary to restore order and could

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<v Speaker 2>provide a basis for a real constitutional debate. So that's

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<v Speaker 2>something roughly I think what might work in Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>You said that these could take months, not wakes. What

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<v Speaker 1>level of regional escalation, civilian death toll, oil shock and

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<v Speaker 1>retaliation against the US, to your God, is acceptable as

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<v Speaker 1>a prose for pursuing graijame change.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the Iranian decision to attack the Gulf

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<v Speaker 2>Arab States has turned into a catastrophic mistake for them.

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<v Speaker 3>A missile fragment falling to the ground and exploding in Doha,

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<v Speaker 3>the capital of Kutter. It's part of the retaliation from

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<v Speaker 3>Iran after the US and Israel launched a massive.

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<v Speaker 2>Enough they thought they could intimidate the golf Arab States,

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<v Speaker 2>and it turned out they were wrong. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>golf Arab States always wanted regime change, they just wanted

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<v Speaker 2>it without a lot of fuss and bother and I

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<v Speaker 2>understand that that's not possible, but I think they will

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<v Speaker 2>resist it. And in terms of the damage that's being done,

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<v Speaker 2>I think if you could measure the amount of let's

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<v Speaker 2>just call it tonnage of bombs that are being dropped

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<v Speaker 2>on Iran compared to the tonnage of bombs they're dropping

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<v Speaker 2>on all of their adversaries, the ratio is unbelievably, unbelievably

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<v Speaker 2>heavy in favor of the anti Iotota forces. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>what's going to cause their problems internally if.

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<v Speaker 1>We zoom that for a moment, Ambstaday, Does this wall

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<v Speaker 1>benefit China or Russia?

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<v Speaker 2>Well? I think in the short term it benefits Russia

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit because it's driven up the oil prices.

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<v Speaker 2>But ultimately Iran is a surrogate, an outrider for both

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<v Speaker 2>Russia and China in the new Sino Russian axis that's

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<v Speaker 2>being formed. They lost the Aside regime in Syria last year,

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<v Speaker 2>They've partially lost Venezuela, they maybe on the verge of

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<v Speaker 2>losing Cuba, and now Iran is under great pressure. That

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<v Speaker 2>leaves them with the real wonderful choices of Belarus and

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<v Speaker 2>North Korea as the remaining outriders. And I think ultimately

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<v Speaker 2>this shows to them that we have the capability to

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<v Speaker 2>affect them in their part of the world, so to speak,

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<v Speaker 2>and they don't have any comparable capability.

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<v Speaker 1>What about Ukraine? Has this war harmed Ukraine? I mean

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<v Speaker 1>burning through me to set missiles that Kiev has been

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<v Speaker 1>begging for, the deployment of Tomahawks that Ukraine has also

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<v Speaker 1>been calling for. Has this harmed their chances of defeating

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<v Speaker 1>Russia or pushing back Russia?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think Trump had so reduced the amount of

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<v Speaker 2>assistance we were giving that it's hard to imagine he

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<v Speaker 2>could give up more. The one the one thing I'm

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<v Speaker 2>worried about is because Russia has reportedly been providing Iran

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<v Speaker 2>not just with military intelligence but tactical advice on use

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<v Speaker 2>of drones that they've learned against Ukraine, that at some

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 2>point Putin could say to Trump, Look, Donald, we shouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>be adverse to each other. Let's make a deal. I'll

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<v Speaker 2>cut off military intelligence to Iran. If you cut off

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<v Speaker 2>military intelligence to Ukraine, that would be a big problem.

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<v Speaker 2>And that may be what Putin is waiting to do.

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<v Speaker 1>That would worry me and bessid is the measure of

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<v Speaker 1>success for Trump, reging change or whether this war results

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<v Speaker 1>in a turnaround in his flagging poll numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>The only result that ever matters to Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>the greater glorification of Donald Trump. And that's why he can't.

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<v Speaker 2>He stopped the Twelve Day War last summer after one

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<v Speaker 2>day of American bombing with fourteen bunker busters because it

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 2>was an unqualified success, and the bunker busters did enormous

0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 2>damage to the Iranian nuclear program, they did not obliterated

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<v Speaker 2>as Trump said, because he never he always exaggerates. But

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<v Speaker 2>they did do substantial damage. There was much more to do,

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<v Speaker 2>but he cut it off because he had what he wanted,

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<v Speaker 2>had visible success, no casualties, and if he cut it off,

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<v Speaker 2>no more risk. That's what I'm worried about here, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's what the Israelis are worried about. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think they have the practical capability or the political

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<v Speaker 2>leeway to continue the war after the US stops, whether

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<v Speaker 2>they want to or not.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the chances if this action isn't successful, whatever

0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.600
<v Speaker 1>success is defined for the president, that he will just

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<v Speaker 1>turn around and blame Israel for its lack of success.

0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, if something goes wrong, it won't be Donald Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>fault because it never is. So he might blame Bibet

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<v Speaker 2>in Yahoo, he might blame somebody in his own administration,

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<v Speaker 2>but it won't be his fault. I'm sure that.

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<v Speaker 1>So finally, Ambassador, what does victory look like to you?

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<v Speaker 1>In Iran? You've laid out some of the aspects of it,

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<v Speaker 1>but five years down the track, ten years down the track,

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<v Speaker 1>what does success look.

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<v Speaker 2>Like if this eliminates the nuclear program and the support

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<v Speaker 2>for terrorism and the ballistic missile program and the iatolas

0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 2>and the Revolutionary Guard are out. I would consider that success.

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't expect Iran to become a Jeffersonian democracy. If

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<v Speaker 2>they were still under a military government, let's say, like Egypt,

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<v Speaker 2>they would still be infinitely better than what we have now.

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassador Bolton, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Well thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, Alassian workers have lashed out a

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<v Speaker 1>billionaire boss, Mike cannon Brooks, after he acts ten percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the software company's staff via email on Thursday. The

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<v Speaker 1>Australian founder blamed AI for the sixteen hundred job losses,

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 1>five hundred of which are in Australia. He told staff

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:55.920
<v Speaker 1>AI is changing the mix of skills needed and the

0:16:56.040 --> 0:17:00.800
<v Speaker 1>number of roles in certain areas. The sealed section of

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<v Speaker 1>the Robodet Royal Commission has been released. Three years after

0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the final report. The Anti Corruption Commission found two former

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<v Speaker 1>public servants, Serena Wilson and Mark Whitnol, had engaged in

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<v Speaker 1>serious corrupt conduct. However, the watchdog concluded they will not

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<v Speaker 1>be referred to face criminal charges. Another four people, including

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:25.760
<v Speaker 1>former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, were cleared I'm Daniel James.

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<v Speaker 1>You've been listening to seven AM. We'll be back tomorrow.