WEBVTT - Behind the sharemarket fall... your next move 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:12.959 Hello, and welcome to the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:17.200 James Kirby. Welcome aboard everybody. Now, folks, we are in 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:22.160 the middle of what looks like a sharp share market 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:25.280 shakeout and what I'm going to do in the next 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:29.920 two shows is I'm going to split it. And today 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:34.400 I'm going to talk to a professional inside sharebrooking right, 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:38.839 who's also an expert on investor behavior usefully about what's happening, 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:42.360 what's happened so far and why. And later in the 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:46.239 week I'm going to talk to doctor Sam Wiley and 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:48.440 he's going to take We're going to take a deeper 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.720 look at what's perhaps evolving in the market now and 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.040 what are the dangers and opportunities for you the investor 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:57.880 going forward and put together, I think this is going 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:01.280 to be very useful to you. And just before we start, 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:04.720 if you need contexts, you should know the Australian share 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:07.959 market as we speak in early April, it's down around 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:10.240 ten percent for the year and Wall Street is down 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:14.360 around fifteen percent for the year as we talk this morning, 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:21.920 after an extraordinary session overnight whereby the Dow ended flat 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.560 but conceals a lot of drama, and it was actually 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:29.080 touching bear market levels. That is, at one point in 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:33.680 the Wall Street session on Monday this week, American Monday, 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:36.960 they were touching bear market levels twenty percent down from 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:39.440 the top. They had a rally at the end based 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:44.560 on a report that was later contradicted, if not denied, 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:46.760 by the Trump administration that they were going to cool 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:50.880 off on tariffs. Another thing to keep in mind, especially 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:55.480 if you are interested in property, is that interest rates 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.160 will now almost certainly Fowell and I've been skeptical about 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.680 that to date. Not only that, but they will probably 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.320 accelerate the pace of the cuts that were coming through 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.000 this year, and it would seem that we could have 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.519 anything up to we could see your mortgage basically falling 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:11.600 from six's to six ish to five ish percent, perhaps 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:15.280 official rates falling from four to closer to three percent. 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:19.200 Very important change in the market. So all linked, of course, 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:22.720 and also I think some renewed focus on the capacity 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.720 and capabilities inside big super lots to talk about. Okay, 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.959 my guest today is Jemma Dale, head of investor behavior 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.880 at NAP Trade. She's been on the show before. 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.800 How are you, Gemma, I'm well, thanks, how you good. 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.400 Great to have you on today, Ideal to have you 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:42.040 on today. So let's just talk first and for what 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:43.799 we were talking before the show, and I think listeners 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:47.040 be really interested in this. So what everyone sees so 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:50.160 far is the usual thing. By that I mean share 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:52.840 market plunge. Now, you see, we all use these words 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:55.639 too often, plunge, and we see we get up in 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:57.480 the morning, we see a headline share market plunge is 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.680 one percent, two percent. That's not a plunge, right, that's 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:06.640 four if it falls nearly five percent in the single session, 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.919 the worst session since COVID. Okay, I'll accept the word plunge. 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:15.359 This week, on that day, only market's falling. We know why, 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.360 no mystery is there because of tariffs and the threat 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.919 of that. This continues and escalates and gets oursel works, 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.800 and until the market sees that there's an end to 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:28.520 it of some sort, we simply cannot make a call 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:32.320 as to when it's going to stop. However, you've been 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:34.960 looking at now this is only a single brokerage, but 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:38.760 it's a big brokerage and ab nap trade. And you 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:43.120 tell me that you're seeing people buying more than selling, 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:45.280 tell me a little bit more about that and what 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.000 exactly and who are This. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.680 Is the best part of my job and it's so interesting. 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:55.600 And we had a clear example of how investors respond 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.960 to market volatility, but particularly falls. Right, you talk about volatile. 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:01.480 No one cares about the up and down. What we 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:03.840 care about is the down. Everyone gets a bit bored, 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:11.600 particularly because it's slower and unless interesting. Yeah, or out 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:15.760 the window, out the window, sorry if it's out the window. 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:21.680 So market has plunged, as you say, We saw this 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:24.680 in COVID as well. So COVID market peaked to trough 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.760 in three weeks. That was a plunge, right, that was 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.040 a very significant collapse, very sharp. Then it turned around 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:32.800 and it raced back up again. And what we saw 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:38.120 from our investors during that period was just an extraordinary 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:43.480 switch from holding cash and very modest trading levels to 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:48.159 very aggressive buying through the fall and as the market 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:51.920 turned around and started climbing back up again. So we 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:55.800 went from a sort of let's say forty five percent sell, 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.559 fifty five percent buy. There's always a slight buyas toward 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.240 buying because people are building over time, right, the vast 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.599 majority of people are not selling shares over time. They're 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.880 trying to build a portfolio, so there's always a bit 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.159 more selling on average, s a bit more buying on average. 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.359 During COVID it went to eighty twenty, so eighty percent 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:14.760 buying twenty percent selling, and most of the selling was 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:18.120 to get back into something else you were rotating through 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:22.839 your portfolio, So huge buying through COVID and also a 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.839 huge influx of new investors so our customer base. And 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.679 this was true across most of the retail brokerages during 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:31.400 that period. 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.640 Okay, now, so we don't want to talk about which 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:38.040 too much. I'm trying to get a broader picture. But 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.480 what you're saying is really interesting. Okay, So this week, then, 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:45.920 in this downturn, your turnover is lifting again and you 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:48.479 are seeing, yet again, you are seeing, let me just 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.120 clarify this beyond all doubt, you are seeing people doing 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:52.440 more buying than selling this week. 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.000 Yes, So what we saw on Monday, which was when 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:59.000 the market sort of bottomed out, down six percent very 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:02.039 early in the morning, just after the open, that was 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.960 our largest trading day ever including the pandemic. It was 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:09.680 about ten percent higher than our previous largest volumes, and 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:12.920 it was absolutely more buying than selling. 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:16.800 So the listener will say, if that's going on in 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:18.920 every share Brookridge Fly, is the market. 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:21.279 Falling Because retail investors are less than twenty percent of 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:24.880 the market, that's the main reason. So the vast majority 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.320 of the ASX and global markets is institutional money. That 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:33.200 is superfunds and algorithmic traders and hedge funds and any 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:37.800 number of large institutional investors. They're driving the flows generally, 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:43.000 and retail investors are at the margin what we see, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.640 so they will know you will very rarely see except 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.839 in some smaller stocks in particular, which are kind of 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:51.839 retail focused. You tend not to see retail investors driving 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:56.000 the price, particularly as aggressive of when you see volumes 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.480 like this, So they're a smaller part of the market. 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.039 But we have seen so we have seen some of 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:08.240 our larger investors selling, so they're trimming positions, they're not 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.560 selling their whole portfolio. It's always really important to go 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:13.720 you know, if I sell five percent of my portfolio, 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.480 that's not the same as selling one hundred percent of 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:19.000 my portfolio. So they're trimming, and some of them will 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.000 be trimming positions that they just want to kind of 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:24.720 settle down. There has been a huge influx of cash 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:27.880 to our book over the last twelve months. So cash 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:29.320 has been climbing and climbing. 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:34.360 Yeah. So these every day investors have built up cash 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:38.280 positions in recent times much more than big super funds 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:41.480 would have, and now they are bargain hunting faster than 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.320 big super funds have. Here's the thing. To what extent 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.400 do you think your experience in that which is a 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:53.120 major share roker in the market is mirrored in other houses? 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:58.760 It appears to be relatively similar. I will say our 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.960 database were attached to a bank, they skew slightly older, 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:07.440 they skew more experienced. For obvious reasons. You know, younger 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:11.560 people might be attracted to a sort of flashy and 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:14.200 more techi kana name. We tend to have sort of 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.200 a lot of self managed super fund retirees. We have 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.920 lots of younger investors as well, but it's more representative 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:23.080 the total population rather than a newer broker that might 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:24.080 attract younger people. 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:27.080 So the chances are the newer brokers younger people are. 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:29.840 The pattern might even be more pronounced. 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.880 It may be, it absolutely may be so younger investors. 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.040 I find this really interesting. Younger investors learn to investor 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.360 in COVID, and what they learned was by the dip, 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:40.840 and that's what they do. 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:43.560 And they learned in one crash, yes, that you bought 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:45.679 the and it went flying back up. Right, So it's 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.120 a V. COVID is extraordinary. And it was a V 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:48.959 shaped recovery. 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:52.240 Yeah, there's a Nike swoosh. It kept going past the V. 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:55.200 Yes. Yeah. And if they had been around in two 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.439 or eight, they would have watched the market take two 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:00.319 years to fall fifty in the slow mind. 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:02.920 Yeah, it didn't make experienced month fIF. 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:09.200 Right, eighteen months fifty five percent slow torture, a crumbling 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.640 share market where you kept thinking it was turned the 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.360 corner and it hadn't, Which leads to the question, And 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:17.040 I can't I wouldn't even ask you this. I wouldn't 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:18.840 ask any one person because no one knows. But I 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:23.200 could frame it this way. This generation of bargain hunters 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.000 that we're seeing come out of the woodwork this week, 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:31.080 emboldened by COVID. Is there a danger that this is 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.200 not like COVID as a reversal. 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.560 I think you're absolutely correct. There is a real risk 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:43.800 because this is restructuring the global economy right if the 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.240 tar stick. And this is the difficulty. No one knows 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:47.880 the trump and if you think you do, you're wrong. 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:52.600 You know, it's highly volatile. The decision making is it's volatile, 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:56.000 let's call it that. So it's very difficult to predict 0:09:56.280 --> 0:10:01.199 to what extent the twers was stick. There'll be retaliation 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:05.120 and so on. But we do assume that there is 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:09.640 an intention to restructure the global economy and US dominance. 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:13.920 So if we assume that to be correct, inflation will 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.160 rise under tariffs, absolutely will, particularly in the US. It 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.360 might be deflationary in Australia if we get lots of 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:21.320 cheap goods from China and other people who can't sell 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:25.160 them elsewhere, but inflationary in the US. That puts up 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:28.439 with pressure on rates, which is interesting. It puts downward 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:32.319 pressure on share prices. The US consumer could be absolutely 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.360 crushed by this, So there's a real risk that we 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:37.360 sort of fall dramatically into a recession. That is what 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:41.800 has happened in the previous instances of tariff's being implemented 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.920 like this. But we're going back a century. Don't have 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:44.840 great data on this. 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.600 We're going back to nineteen the thirties, yeah, okay, on 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:53.480 what people are doing. So we've established that for listeners 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:57.120 that it would seem that people are responding very like COVID, 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.839 that they are actually looking for bargains, that they are 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:05.280 actually buying more than selling. This is active every day 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:08.520 investors who sort of people who listen to this show, 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:12.920 they are also perhaps if they are selling there, they're maneuvering. 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:15.439 Maybe they're selling out of gold for instance, after getting 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:19.440 a big run and buying I don't know just about anything, right, yes, so. 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:23.120 Northern Star was our biggest sell yesterday. You're absolutely correct, 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:24.040 that was the biggest sell. 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.520 Yeah, okay, and that's a gold gold miner. So just 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:29.680 before we go into that sort of deep dive, the 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.040 patterns of what people are buying. Are they going back 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.240 into the US? Are they going back, if you like, 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.839 into the fire? Are they going straight back to the U? 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:40.640 Is it the US bias? Are the ATS? 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:45.760 We yeah, so not specifically only the US. When we 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.800 see ETF buying, it is usually the ASX two hundred 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.360 and the S and P five hundred, but there is 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:55.840 also now some world. So misky world is sort of 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.679 the benchmark that the UTF matches. I should note all 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:02.960 of the utfs that we see typically are just basic 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:09.080 index ets. They're not managed, they're not leverageda Clain Vanilla, right, 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:11.920 very simple stuff. You know exactly what you're getting, very 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.400 cheap as well, very low mars, and lots of good 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.400 historical data on the value of investing in that kind 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.680 of product if you don't want to pick the stops yourself. Right. 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.079 So we have seen that. We have also seen Nasdaq 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:28.079 one hundred and quite a lot of that and World 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.560 more broadly. But World is sort of seventy percent US 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:36.160 at the moment, so one would trust that investors know 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:40.000 when you are buying a World ETF, you are getting 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.320 a lot of US exposure in that and then a 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:46.720 smaller amount, much smaller amount of the rest of the world. 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:49.560 Okay, really interesting. We got to take a short break 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:53.360 and we will be back very quickly because this is enthralling. Okay, 0:12:53.400 --> 0:13:04.120 back in the moment. Hello, Welcome back to The Australian's 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.880 Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirby with Jamma Dale from Nabdate, 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.800 head of Investor Behavior, who is always good to talk to. 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:12.800 Ani Date have to mention in the middle of a 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:18.600 share market downturn. Okay, so tell us now what your 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.040 data in channel that is showing about people what they're 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:22.960 buying and what they're buying, what they're selling, to the 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:23.839 extent that you could. 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:26.800 Yeah, absolutely, So one thing I will comment on because 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:28.920 you just sort of asked this question before. There are 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.040 different types of investors obviously in any customer set, and 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.480 we have hundreds and hundreds of thousands of customers and 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.440 so they are quite different. Younger people obviously have a 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:42.600 different portfolio and different trading slash investing behavior than older people, 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.640 which is quite typical. One of the main reasons is 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.120 older people have been doing it longer and they're much 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:51.040 less likely to own a lot of ETFs. They started 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:56.599 buying direct stocks, so they tend to hold BHP, CBA, CSL, Macquarie. 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:58.839 You know, big Australian companies has been around a long time. 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.520 So what though, those guys are doing it at the moment, 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:07.600 and our active trade is they are materials, particularly BHP 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.760 and Woodside. Woodside has been absolutely smashed because the oil 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:15.120 prices come off so hard. Uh, BHP obviously a lot 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:16.320 of exposure to China. 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.680 Sorry, just to clarify, people are with these stocks they're 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:21.480 buying or selling them. 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:22.120 They're buying them. 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.960 They're absolutely they're buying them. They're buying Woodside after the 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.600 sell off of the oils because the oil is down 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:31.320 because of a variety of things, including which almost got lost. 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:33.200 We'll pick I've allowed it to go off in the 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:34.960 middle of all this, which which would normally have been 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:38.360 big news, but it didn't get through the crash news. Okay, 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:44.200 So commodity old time commodity miners EH, fossil fuel giants. 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:51.240 Yes, and banks. Interestingly enough, Westpac, so, CBA, NAB and 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.280 I and Z are strong by at the moment, less 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.480 so Westpac. But sometimes that's a normalist. That's just one 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.200 day and for whatever reason, that just wasn't the So 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:01.680 I don't want to say that's a trend. It just 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:06.720 is what happened yesterday when McQuary got hit really hard 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.280 yesterday morning and then bounced quite a lot. So it 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.600 was obviously brought in the morning when it was under 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:13.680 a lot of pressure. And mccrary's one of the companies 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.600 in Australia with a lot of US earnings and obviously 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:18.479 a lot of exposure to the US. 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:22.600 Yes, and you sign up people searching in they're doing that. 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:27.520 Do you think there's an element of swinging towards defense 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.280 in the chase for income and dividends from the bank 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:32.280 shares particularly. 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.120 It could be that. I think the real risk with 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.760 bank shares, and now investors are acutely conscious of this 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:43.640 is they've been until quite recently. If you look at 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.000 three of the big four, they've come off very hard. 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:48.640 It looks like CBA has come off hard, but it 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:51.360 hasn't really. I mean CBA was at one hundred dollars 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.680 or eighteen months ago. It's still it, what one hundred 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.040 and forty ish. Yes, it made it to one hundred 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.320 and sixty, but it's not exactly a dramatic pullback when 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.240 you consider it is a bank and it perhaps should 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.480 not have run sixty percent in eighteen months. It was 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:06.720 quite an extraordinary price, and the year was back at 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:08.680 around three percent. So for our guys, they know the 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.840 bank share process is extremely well and they're very reluctant 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:15.760 to chase. They were mostly trimming banks through the last 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:18.400 eighteen months because they felt they had just run too hard. 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.960 The rotation back in is interesting. I think it's more 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:26.960 of a quality play than a dividend play, mostly because 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:28.440 they've got lots of banks already. 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:33.280 Yes, okay, and as you say, it's worth hearing this folks. 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:37.120 You know the franking are fully frank. Years on the 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.640 bank shows coming up at seven and eight percent now 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:45.840 with the exception interesting the comebob banks. That is the 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.800 thing is it doesn't fall what was it doesn't fall, 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.440 but it was the one that was supposed to fall hardest. Yes, 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.120 the scause it's run the hardness, but it hasn't. So 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.840 that's an interesting I often find when you get this 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.920 period of supervolatility in a big sell off there it's 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.280 always really worth looking the next thing said, well, what 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:08.320 did actually happen? Which stocks did forward? And the other 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.520 themes we could look at? What about the AI and 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:12.160 tech gang. 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.479 In the US. So we'll say that just that difference 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.840 between more mature investors, the ones who've been doing this 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:21.800 a long time and have stock portfolios versus newer investors 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.080 who tend to have ETF portfolios, because they're quite different cohorts. 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.679 The ETF portfolio guys are just loading up, absolutely up, 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:29.159 and we. 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.320 Were loading up on ETFs. Sorry, there's no evidence of them. 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.600 Broadening, and it may happen, but not yet. So what 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:41.960 has happened, and we ran this analysis last year. So 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:44.960 interesting to me is that yes, people buy ettfs and 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:47.080 there's a bit of a just keep buying mentality, and 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.680 a lot of it is younger people trying to build 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.320 a portfolio over time. And you can extrapolate to say 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:52.800 they're saving up to by home or whatever it is. 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:54.680 They're just trying to build up a portfolio over time. 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.440 They use ETF to do that. What we found through 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.919 a bit of sort of begging through our data and 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:05.400 analysis is they are not just blindly buying. They are 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.600 far more likely to buy. And I mean by a 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:12.080 magnitude of like fifty percent on a day the market 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:14.400 falls by more than one percent, So on a day 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.800 when it falls six percent in the morning, they are 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:21.000 going to buy dramatically more and dramatically more people are 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.840 going to buy. And I kind of love that. I'm like, well, 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.280 you guys, know what you're doing. This is not just 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:31.600 random buying. You're actually trying to time just little winds. 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.640 They're little accreative wins, right, Like if you just buy 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.240 it one percent cheaper, but you're doing it consistently, that's 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:40.119 quite nice, right, And I think to your question a 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:42.800 little bit earlier, like, do we know whether this is 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:46.000 a V shape recovery like COVID or a horrendous bleed 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.439 like two thousand and eight. We don't know. Obviously, we 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:52.000 don't know at this point. But for those people who 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.600 are doing cumulative ETF buying, I don't know if they 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.080 care an enormous amount. This is just a long term 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.119 buying strategy and they will try to buy weakness, and 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:04.080 that tends to be the newer investors. That's just their strategy. 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:07.000 It's okay, sort of an aggressive exactly. 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.119 Is it quite a sophisticated, simple strategy? 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:14.560 Yes? Right, okay, very interesting and no obvious swing back 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:19.040 towards the defensive alleged defensive quality of the ASEX with 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:20.200 the high dividend yield. 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.119 Not really. I mean, obviously we sow enormous buying, but 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:26.000 we have seen so much cash piling up. We absolutely 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:28.080 knew people were waiting for a pullback, and they are 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.760 absolutely moving on the pullback, which is good to see. 0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:34.520 They're not just sitting on cash indefinitely. What is always 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.520 interesting to see is what happens as it continues. You know, 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.119 it's unlikely you get a sell off. That's three days 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.200 only and then it's all over and back to the races. 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:44.240 So it'll be interesting to see what happens. 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.440 It will be interesting to see what happens. Well, that's sure, 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:50.160 but we ruled off the books this morning. We would 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:52.000 all be in trouble, wouldn't we. We'd be all our 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:54.280 super funds. If we were in big super they would 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:59.720 be down considerably because our big super funds are we 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:02.760 know from the statistics, more exposed if you like, to 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:07.120 the US share market and have elevated that exposure recent times. 0:20:07.359 --> 0:20:09.679 And they also have more exposure to on listed assets, 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:14.720 which we haven't talked about. Yes, but either they will 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:18.080 drop and if they don't mark them down, they become 0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:20.840 imbalanced if you like, because their shares are down, but 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:23.520 their private equity holdings aren't because they haven't marked them down. 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:25.840 So I can't see your way out of that. I 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.760 wonder had you look at all at I noticed myself 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:31.440 looking at the listed what I call the listed on list, 0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:34.399 the listed on listed market, which is all these funds 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:40.320 which have emerged which give investors exposure to assets that 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.520 are private technically, and then they list them on the 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:45.959 stock market and they say there's no contradiction in that. 0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:50.720 But I did notice that the funds, private equity funds 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:52.960 and private credit funds that are listed on the ASEX. 0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.960 This is very broad, but they are down perhaps fifty 0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:00.360 percent more than the market itself. So the market being 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:02.159 down ten percent this year so far, some of those 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.800 big funds down fifteen percent or more. I thought it 0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:08.360 might didn't be sharper, And I think any observations on 0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:12.480 that whole scene for our listeners. 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:16.080 I think the comment I would make, we do not 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:19.600 see a lot of appetite for that kind of product 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:23.520 and structure on. Yeah, So if you look at our 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:26.560 younger investors, they're just buying plain vanilla retfs and that 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:29.240 is their strategy, and they're very consistent about it. So 0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:31.520 they're quite sophisticated. They try to time it, but they're 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:34.520 quite happy to take a small win rather than looking 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:37.119 to time it perfectly and hold out in cash for 0:21:37.119 --> 0:21:39.639 a year and a half waiting for a pullback. You know, 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.040 they're just happy to buy consistently. When you look at 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:44.480 our more mature investors, and again this is a bit 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:47.359 of an experienced thing. A lot of them are around 0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:49.960 during the GFC and they have seen what happens to 0:21:50.080 --> 0:21:52.320 I liquid assets, regardless of whether or not they're in 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:56.359 a liquid structure. They've seen what happens, and it's very 0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:58.800 clear that they are steering well away from things that 0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:04.680