1
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,959
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm

2
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,200
Speaker 1: James Kirby. Welcome aboard everybody. Now, folks, we are in

3
00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:22,160
Speaker 1: the middle of what looks like a sharp share market

4
00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 1: shakeout and what I'm going to do in the next

5
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: two shows is I'm going to split it. And today

6
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:34,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk to a professional inside sharebrooking right,

7
00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,839
Speaker 1: who's also an expert on investor behavior usefully about what's happening,

8
00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 1: what's happened so far and why. And later in the

9
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,239
Speaker 1: week I'm going to talk to doctor Sam Wiley and

10
00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,440
Speaker 1: he's going to take We're going to take a deeper

11
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,720
Speaker 1: look at what's perhaps evolving in the market now and

12
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,040
Speaker 1: what are the dangers and opportunities for you the investor

13
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,880
Speaker 1: going forward and put together, I think this is going

14
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,280
Speaker 1: to be very useful to you. And just before we start,

15
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,720
Speaker 1: if you need contexts, you should know the Australian share

16
00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,959
Speaker 1: market as we speak in early April, it's down around

17
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 1: ten percent for the year and Wall Street is down

18
00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,360
Speaker 1: around fifteen percent for the year as we talk this morning,

19
00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:21,920
Speaker 1: after an extraordinary session overnight whereby the Dow ended flat

20
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,560
Speaker 1: but conceals a lot of drama, and it was actually

21
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 1: touching bear market levels. That is, at one point in

22
00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,680
Speaker 1: the Wall Street session on Monday this week, American Monday,

23
00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,960
Speaker 1: they were touching bear market levels twenty percent down from

24
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,440
Speaker 1: the top. They had a rally at the end based

25
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:44,560
Speaker 1: on a report that was later contradicted, if not denied,

26
00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:46,760
Speaker 1: by the Trump administration that they were going to cool

27
00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: off on tariffs. Another thing to keep in mind, especially

28
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:55,480
Speaker 1: if you are interested in property, is that interest rates

29
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,160
Speaker 1: will now almost certainly Fowell and I've been skeptical about

30
00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,680
Speaker 1: that to date. Not only that, but they will probably

31
00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,320
Speaker 1: accelerate the pace of the cuts that were coming through

32
00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 1: this year, and it would seem that we could have

33
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,519
Speaker 1: anything up to we could see your mortgage basically falling

34
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,600
Speaker 1: from six's to six ish to five ish percent, perhaps

35
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 1: official rates falling from four to closer to three percent.

36
00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,200
Speaker 1: Very important change in the market. So all linked, of course,

37
00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: and also I think some renewed focus on the capacity

38
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,720
Speaker 1: and capabilities inside big super lots to talk about. Okay,

39
00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,959
Speaker 1: my guest today is Jemma Dale, head of investor behavior

40
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,880
Speaker 1: at NAP Trade. She's been on the show before.

41
00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,800
Speaker 2: How are you, Gemma, I'm well, thanks, how you good.

42
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,400
Speaker 1: Great to have you on today, Ideal to have you

43
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,040
Speaker 1: on today. So let's just talk first and for what

44
00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:43,799
Speaker 1: we were talking before the show, and I think listeners

45
00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 1: be really interested in this. So what everyone sees so

46
00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 1: far is the usual thing. By that I mean share

47
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,840
Speaker 1: market plunge. Now, you see, we all use these words

48
00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,639
Speaker 1: too often, plunge, and we see we get up in

49
00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,480
Speaker 1: the morning, we see a headline share market plunge is

50
00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,680
Speaker 1: one percent, two percent. That's not a plunge, right, that's

51
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:06,640
Speaker 1: four if it falls nearly five percent in the single session,

52
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,919
Speaker 1: the worst session since COVID. Okay, I'll accept the word plunge.

53
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,359
Speaker 1: This week, on that day, only market's falling. We know why,

54
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,360
Speaker 1: no mystery is there because of tariffs and the threat

55
00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,919
Speaker 1: of that. This continues and escalates and gets oursel works,

56
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,800
Speaker 1: and until the market sees that there's an end to

57
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 1: it of some sort, we simply cannot make a call

58
00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,320
Speaker 1: as to when it's going to stop. However, you've been

59
00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 1: looking at now this is only a single brokerage, but

60
00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 1: it's a big brokerage and ab nap trade. And you

61
00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,120
Speaker 1: tell me that you're seeing people buying more than selling,

62
00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:45,280
Speaker 1: tell me a little bit more about that and what

63
00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 1: exactly and who are This.

64
00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 2: Is the best part of my job and it's so interesting.

65
00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:55,600
Speaker 2: And we had a clear example of how investors respond

66
00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 2: to market volatility, but particularly falls. Right, you talk about volatile.

67
00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:01,480
Speaker 2: No one cares about the up and down. What we

68
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,840
Speaker 2: care about is the down. Everyone gets a bit bored,

69
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:11,600
Speaker 2: particularly because it's slower and unless interesting. Yeah, or out

70
00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,760
Speaker 2: the window, out the window, sorry if it's out the window.

71
00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:21,680
Speaker 2: So market has plunged, as you say, We saw this

72
00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,680
Speaker 2: in COVID as well. So COVID market peaked to trough

73
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,760
Speaker 2: in three weeks. That was a plunge, right, that was

74
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,040
Speaker 2: a very significant collapse, very sharp. Then it turned around

75
00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:32,800
Speaker 2: and it raced back up again. And what we saw

76
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:38,120
Speaker 2: from our investors during that period was just an extraordinary

77
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:43,480
Speaker 2: switch from holding cash and very modest trading levels to

78
00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 2: very aggressive buying through the fall and as the market

79
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,920
Speaker 2: turned around and started climbing back up again. So we

80
00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 2: went from a sort of let's say forty five percent sell,

81
00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,559
Speaker 2: fifty five percent buy. There's always a slight buyas toward

82
00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,240
Speaker 2: buying because people are building over time, right, the vast

83
00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,599
Speaker 2: majority of people are not selling shares over time. They're

84
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 2: trying to build a portfolio, so there's always a bit

85
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,159
Speaker 2: more selling on average, s a bit more buying on average.

86
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,359
Speaker 2: During COVID it went to eighty twenty, so eighty percent

87
00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,760
Speaker 2: buying twenty percent selling, and most of the selling was

88
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,120
Speaker 2: to get back into something else you were rotating through

89
00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:22,839
Speaker 2: your portfolio, So huge buying through COVID and also a

90
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,839
Speaker 2: huge influx of new investors so our customer base. And

91
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,679
Speaker 2: this was true across most of the retail brokerages during

92
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,400
Speaker 2: that period.

93
00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 1: Okay, now, so we don't want to talk about which

94
00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,040
Speaker 1: too much. I'm trying to get a broader picture. But

95
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,480
Speaker 1: what you're saying is really interesting. Okay, So this week, then,

96
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,920
Speaker 1: in this downturn, your turnover is lifting again and you

97
00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,479
Speaker 1: are seeing, yet again, you are seeing, let me just

98
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 1: clarify this beyond all doubt, you are seeing people doing

99
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 1: more buying than selling this week.

100
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,000
Speaker 2: Yes, So what we saw on Monday, which was when

101
00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,000
Speaker 2: the market sort of bottomed out, down six percent very

102
00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:02,039
Speaker 2: early in the morning, just after the open, that was

103
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,960
Speaker 2: our largest trading day ever including the pandemic. It was

104
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,680
Speaker 2: about ten percent higher than our previous largest volumes, and

105
00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,920
Speaker 2: it was absolutely more buying than selling.

106
00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,800
Speaker 1: So the listener will say, if that's going on in

107
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,920
Speaker 1: every share Brookridge Fly, is the market.

108
00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,279
Speaker 2: Falling Because retail investors are less than twenty percent of

109
00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,880
Speaker 2: the market, that's the main reason. So the vast majority

110
00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,320
Speaker 2: of the ASX and global markets is institutional money. That

111
00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:33,200
Speaker 2: is superfunds and algorithmic traders and hedge funds and any

112
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 2: number of large institutional investors. They're driving the flows generally,

113
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:43,000
Speaker 2: and retail investors are at the margin what we see,

114
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,640
Speaker 2: so they will know you will very rarely see except

115
00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:47,839
Speaker 2: in some smaller stocks in particular, which are kind of

116
00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,839
Speaker 2: retail focused. You tend not to see retail investors driving

117
00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 2: the price, particularly as aggressive of when you see volumes

118
00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,480
Speaker 2: like this, So they're a smaller part of the market.

119
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,039
Speaker 2: But we have seen so we have seen some of

120
00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:08,240
Speaker 2: our larger investors selling, so they're trimming positions, they're not

121
00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,560
Speaker 2: selling their whole portfolio. It's always really important to go

122
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,720
Speaker 2: you know, if I sell five percent of my portfolio,

123
00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 2: that's not the same as selling one hundred percent of

124
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 2: my portfolio. So they're trimming, and some of them will

125
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 2: be trimming positions that they just want to kind of

126
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 2: settle down. There has been a huge influx of cash

127
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,880
Speaker 2: to our book over the last twelve months. So cash

128
00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 2: has been climbing and climbing.

129
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:34,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. So these every day investors have built up cash

130
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,280
Speaker 1: positions in recent times much more than big super funds

131
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,480
Speaker 1: would have, and now they are bargain hunting faster than

132
00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,320
Speaker 1: big super funds have. Here's the thing. To what extent

133
00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,400
Speaker 1: do you think your experience in that which is a

134
00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 1: major share roker in the market is mirrored in other houses?

135
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:58,760
Speaker 2: It appears to be relatively similar. I will say our

136
00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 2: database were attached to a bank, they skew slightly older,

137
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 2: they skew more experienced. For obvious reasons. You know, younger

138
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,560
Speaker 2: people might be attracted to a sort of flashy and

139
00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,200
Speaker 2: more techi kana name. We tend to have sort of

140
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,200
Speaker 2: a lot of self managed super fund retirees. We have

141
00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,920
Speaker 2: lots of younger investors as well, but it's more representative

142
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 2: the total population rather than a newer broker that might

143
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 2: attract younger people.

144
00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,080
Speaker 1: So the chances are the newer brokers younger people are.

145
00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:29,840
Speaker 1: The pattern might even be more pronounced.

146
00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,880
Speaker 2: It may be, it absolutely may be so younger investors.

147
00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,040
Speaker 2: I find this really interesting. Younger investors learn to investor

148
00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 2: in COVID, and what they learned was by the dip,

149
00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:40,840
Speaker 2: and that's what they do.

150
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,560
Speaker 1: And they learned in one crash, yes, that you bought

151
00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,679
Speaker 1: the and it went flying back up. Right, So it's

152
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,120
Speaker 1: a V. COVID is extraordinary. And it was a V

153
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:48,959
Speaker 1: shaped recovery.

154
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a Nike swoosh. It kept going past the V.

155
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,200
Speaker 1: Yes. Yeah. And if they had been around in two

156
00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,439
Speaker 1: or eight, they would have watched the market take two

157
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,319
Speaker 1: years to fall fifty in the slow mind.

158
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it didn't make experienced month fIF.

159
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:09,200
Speaker 1: Right, eighteen months fifty five percent slow torture, a crumbling

160
00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 1: share market where you kept thinking it was turned the

161
00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 1: corner and it hadn't, Which leads to the question, And

162
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,040
Speaker 1: I can't I wouldn't even ask you this. I wouldn't

163
00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 1: ask any one person because no one knows. But I

164
00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:23,200
Speaker 1: could frame it this way. This generation of bargain hunters

165
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,000
Speaker 1: that we're seeing come out of the woodwork this week,

166
00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:31,080
Speaker 1: emboldened by COVID. Is there a danger that this is

167
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,200
Speaker 1: not like COVID as a reversal.

168
00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,560
Speaker 2: I think you're absolutely correct. There is a real risk

169
00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:43,800
Speaker 2: because this is restructuring the global economy right if the

170
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 2: tar stick. And this is the difficulty. No one knows

171
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:47,880
Speaker 2: the trump and if you think you do, you're wrong.

172
00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,600
Speaker 2: You know, it's highly volatile. The decision making is it's volatile,

173
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,000
Speaker 2: let's call it that. So it's very difficult to predict

174
00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:01,199
Speaker 2: to what extent the twers was stick. There'll be retaliation

175
00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,120
Speaker 2: and so on. But we do assume that there is

176
00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:09,640
Speaker 2: an intention to restructure the global economy and US dominance.

177
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,920
Speaker 2: So if we assume that to be correct, inflation will

178
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,160
Speaker 2: rise under tariffs, absolutely will, particularly in the US. It

179
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,360
Speaker 2: might be deflationary in Australia if we get lots of

180
00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,320
Speaker 2: cheap goods from China and other people who can't sell

181
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,160
Speaker 2: them elsewhere, but inflationary in the US. That puts up

182
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,439
Speaker 2: with pressure on rates, which is interesting. It puts downward

183
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 2: pressure on share prices. The US consumer could be absolutely

184
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,360
Speaker 2: crushed by this, So there's a real risk that we

185
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,360
Speaker 2: sort of fall dramatically into a recession. That is what

186
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 2: has happened in the previous instances of tariff's being implemented

187
00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:43,920
Speaker 2: like this. But we're going back a century. Don't have

188
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 2: great data on this.

189
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,600
Speaker 1: We're going back to nineteen the thirties, yeah, okay, on

190
00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 1: what people are doing. So we've established that for listeners

191
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,120
Speaker 1: that it would seem that people are responding very like COVID,

192
00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,839
Speaker 1: that they are actually looking for bargains, that they are

193
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 1: actually buying more than selling. This is active every day

194
00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 1: investors who sort of people who listen to this show,

195
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,920
Speaker 1: they are also perhaps if they are selling there, they're maneuvering.

196
00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,439
Speaker 1: Maybe they're selling out of gold for instance, after getting

197
00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,440
Speaker 1: a big run and buying I don't know just about anything, right, yes, so.

198
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,120
Speaker 2: Northern Star was our biggest sell yesterday. You're absolutely correct,

199
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:24,040
Speaker 2: that was the biggest sell.

200
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, and that's a gold gold miner. So just

201
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,680
Speaker 1: before we go into that sort of deep dive, the

202
00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,040
Speaker 1: patterns of what people are buying. Are they going back

203
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,240
Speaker 1: into the US? Are they going back, if you like,

204
00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,839
Speaker 1: into the fire? Are they going straight back to the U?

205
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,640
Speaker 1: Is it the US bias? Are the ATS?

206
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 2: We yeah, so not specifically only the US. When we

207
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,800
Speaker 2: see ETF buying, it is usually the ASX two hundred

208
00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 2: and the S and P five hundred, but there is

209
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:55,840
Speaker 2: also now some world. So misky world is sort of

210
00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,679
Speaker 2: the benchmark that the UTF matches. I should note all

211
00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,960
Speaker 2: of the utfs that we see typically are just basic

212
00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:09,080
Speaker 2: index ets. They're not managed, they're not leverageda Clain Vanilla, right,

213
00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,920
Speaker 2: very simple stuff. You know exactly what you're getting, very

214
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:16,400
Speaker 2: cheap as well, very low mars, and lots of good

215
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,400
Speaker 2: historical data on the value of investing in that kind

216
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,680
Speaker 2: of product if you don't want to pick the stops yourself. Right.

217
00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,079
Speaker 2: So we have seen that. We have also seen Nasdaq

218
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,079
Speaker 2: one hundred and quite a lot of that and World

219
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,560
Speaker 2: more broadly. But World is sort of seventy percent US

220
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:36,160
Speaker 2: at the moment, so one would trust that investors know

221
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:40,000
Speaker 2: when you are buying a World ETF, you are getting

222
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,320
Speaker 2: a lot of US exposure in that and then a

223
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:46,720
Speaker 2: smaller amount, much smaller amount of the rest of the world.

224
00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,560
Speaker 1: Okay, really interesting. We got to take a short break

225
00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,360
Speaker 1: and we will be back very quickly because this is enthralling. Okay,

226
00:12:53,400 --> 00:13:04,120
Speaker 1: back in the moment. Hello, Welcome back to The Australian's

227
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 1: Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirby with Jamma Dale from Nabdate,

228
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,800
Speaker 1: head of Investor Behavior, who is always good to talk to.

229
00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 1: Ani Date have to mention in the middle of a

230
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:18,600
Speaker 1: share market downturn. Okay, so tell us now what your

231
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,040
Speaker 1: data in channel that is showing about people what they're

232
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,960
Speaker 1: buying and what they're buying, what they're selling, to the

233
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:23,839
Speaker 1: extent that you could.

234
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:26,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, So one thing I will comment on because

235
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,920
Speaker 2: you just sort of asked this question before. There are

236
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 2: different types of investors obviously in any customer set, and

237
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 2: we have hundreds and hundreds of thousands of customers and

238
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,440
Speaker 2: so they are quite different. Younger people obviously have a

239
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:42,600
Speaker 2: different portfolio and different trading slash investing behavior than older people,

240
00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,640
Speaker 2: which is quite typical. One of the main reasons is

241
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 2: older people have been doing it longer and they're much

242
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 2: less likely to own a lot of ETFs. They started

243
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:56,599
Speaker 2: buying direct stocks, so they tend to hold BHP, CBA, CSL, Macquarie.

244
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,839
Speaker 2: You know, big Australian companies has been around a long time.

245
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,520
Speaker 2: So what though, those guys are doing it at the moment,

246
00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 2: and our active trade is they are materials, particularly BHP

247
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,760
Speaker 2: and Woodside. Woodside has been absolutely smashed because the oil

248
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:15,120
Speaker 2: prices come off so hard. Uh, BHP obviously a lot

249
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 2: of exposure to China.

250
00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 1: Sorry, just to clarify, people are with these stocks they're

251
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 1: buying or selling them.

252
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 2: They're buying them.

253
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,960
Speaker 1: They're absolutely they're buying them. They're buying Woodside after the

254
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,600
Speaker 1: sell off of the oils because the oil is down

255
00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 1: because of a variety of things, including which almost got lost.

256
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:33,200
Speaker 1: We'll pick I've allowed it to go off in the

257
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 1: middle of all this, which which would normally have been

258
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,360
Speaker 1: big news, but it didn't get through the crash news. Okay,

259
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 1: So commodity old time commodity miners EH, fossil fuel giants.

260
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:51,240
Speaker 2: Yes, and banks. Interestingly enough, Westpac, so, CBA, NAB and

261
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 2: I and Z are strong by at the moment, less

262
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 2: so Westpac. But sometimes that's a normalist. That's just one

263
00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,200
Speaker 2: day and for whatever reason, that just wasn't the So

264
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:01,680
Speaker 2: I don't want to say that's a trend. It just

265
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:06,720
Speaker 2: is what happened yesterday when McQuary got hit really hard

266
00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,280
Speaker 2: yesterday morning and then bounced quite a lot. So it

267
00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 2: was obviously brought in the morning when it was under

268
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,680
Speaker 2: a lot of pressure. And mccrary's one of the companies

269
00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,600
Speaker 2: in Australia with a lot of US earnings and obviously

270
00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,479
Speaker 2: a lot of exposure to the US.

271
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,600
Speaker 1: Yes, and you sign up people searching in they're doing that.

272
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 1: Do you think there's an element of swinging towards defense

273
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 1: in the chase for income and dividends from the bank

274
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 1: shares particularly.

275
00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,120
Speaker 2: It could be that. I think the real risk with

276
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 2: bank shares, and now investors are acutely conscious of this

277
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 2: is they've been until quite recently. If you look at

278
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 2: three of the big four, they've come off very hard.

279
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 2: It looks like CBA has come off hard, but it

280
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 2: hasn't really. I mean CBA was at one hundred dollars

281
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,680
Speaker 2: or eighteen months ago. It's still it, what one hundred

282
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,040
Speaker 2: and forty ish. Yes, it made it to one hundred

283
00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,320
Speaker 2: and sixty, but it's not exactly a dramatic pullback when

284
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,240
Speaker 2: you consider it is a bank and it perhaps should

285
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 2: not have run sixty percent in eighteen months. It was

286
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,720
Speaker 2: quite an extraordinary price, and the year was back at

287
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 2: around three percent. So for our guys, they know the

288
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 2: bank share process is extremely well and they're very reluctant

289
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 2: to chase. They were mostly trimming banks through the last

290
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,400
Speaker 2: eighteen months because they felt they had just run too hard.

291
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 2: The rotation back in is interesting. I think it's more

292
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,960
Speaker 2: of a quality play than a dividend play, mostly because

293
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 2: they've got lots of banks already.

294
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, and as you say, it's worth hearing this folks.

295
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 1: You know the franking are fully frank. Years on the

296
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 1: bank shows coming up at seven and eight percent now

297
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 1: with the exception interesting the comebob banks. That is the

298
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 1: thing is it doesn't fall what was it doesn't fall,

299
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 1: but it was the one that was supposed to fall hardest. Yes,

300
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 1: the scause it's run the hardness, but it hasn't. So

301
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 1: that's an interesting I often find when you get this

302
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: period of supervolatility in a big sell off there it's

303
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,280
Speaker 1: always really worth looking the next thing said, well, what

304
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,320
Speaker 1: did actually happen? Which stocks did forward? And the other

305
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 1: themes we could look at? What about the AI and

306
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:12,160
Speaker 1: tech gang.

307
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,479
Speaker 2: In the US. So we'll say that just that difference

308
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 2: between more mature investors, the ones who've been doing this

309
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 2: a long time and have stock portfolios versus newer investors

310
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 2: who tend to have ETF portfolios, because they're quite different cohorts.

311
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,679
Speaker 2: The ETF portfolio guys are just loading up, absolutely up,

312
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:29,159
Speaker 2: and we.

313
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 1: Were loading up on ETFs. Sorry, there's no evidence of them.

314
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 2: Broadening, and it may happen, but not yet. So what

315
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 2: has happened, and we ran this analysis last year. So

316
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 2: interesting to me is that yes, people buy ettfs and

317
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,080
Speaker 2: there's a bit of a just keep buying mentality, and

318
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,680
Speaker 2: a lot of it is younger people trying to build

319
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: a portfolio over time. And you can extrapolate to say

320
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 2: they're saving up to by home or whatever it is.

321
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 2: They're just trying to build up a portfolio over time.

322
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 2: They use ETF to do that. What we found through

323
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,919
Speaker 2: a bit of sort of begging through our data and

324
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:05,400
Speaker 2: analysis is they are not just blindly buying. They are

325
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 2: far more likely to buy. And I mean by a

326
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 2: magnitude of like fifty percent on a day the market

327
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,400
Speaker 2: falls by more than one percent, So on a day

328
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 2: when it falls six percent in the morning, they are

329
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 2: going to buy dramatically more and dramatically more people are

330
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 2: going to buy. And I kind of love that. I'm like, well,

331
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 2: you guys, know what you're doing. This is not just

332
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 2: random buying. You're actually trying to time just little winds.

333
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 2: They're little accreative wins, right, Like if you just buy

334
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 2: it one percent cheaper, but you're doing it consistently, that's

335
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 2: quite nice, right, And I think to your question a

336
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 2: little bit earlier, like, do we know whether this is

337
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 2: a V shape recovery like COVID or a horrendous bleed

338
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 2: like two thousand and eight. We don't know. Obviously, we

339
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 2: don't know at this point. But for those people who

340
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: are doing cumulative ETF buying, I don't know if they

341
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 2: care an enormous amount. This is just a long term

342
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 2: buying strategy and they will try to buy weakness, and

343
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 2: that tends to be the newer investors. That's just their strategy.

344
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: It's okay, sort of an aggressive exactly.

345
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 2: Is it quite a sophisticated, simple strategy?

346
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 1: Yes? Right, okay, very interesting and no obvious swing back

347
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 1: towards the defensive alleged defensive quality of the ASEX with

348
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:20,200
Speaker 1: the high dividend yield.

349
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,119
Speaker 2: Not really. I mean, obviously we sow enormous buying, but

350
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 2: we have seen so much cash piling up. We absolutely

351
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 2: knew people were waiting for a pullback, and they are

352
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 2: absolutely moving on the pullback, which is good to see.

353
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 2: They're not just sitting on cash indefinitely. What is always

354
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 2: interesting to see is what happens as it continues. You know,

355
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 2: it's unlikely you get a sell off. That's three days

356
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 2: only and then it's all over and back to the races.

357
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

358
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 1: It will be interesting to see what happens. Well, that's sure,

359
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 1: but we ruled off the books this morning. We would

360
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 1: all be in trouble, wouldn't we. We'd be all our

361
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 1: super funds. If we were in big super they would

362
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 1: be down considerably because our big super funds are we

363
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: know from the statistics, more exposed if you like, to

364
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 1: the US share market and have elevated that exposure recent times.

365
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,679
Speaker 1: And they also have more exposure to on listed assets,

366
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: which we haven't talked about. Yes, but either they will

367
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 1: drop and if they don't mark them down, they become

368
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 1: imbalanced if you like, because their shares are down, but

369
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 1: their private equity holdings aren't because they haven't marked them down.

370
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: So I can't see your way out of that. I

371
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: wonder had you look at all at I noticed myself

372
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 1: looking at the listed what I call the listed on list,

373
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: the listed on listed market, which is all these funds

374
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 1: which have emerged which give investors exposure to assets that

375
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 1: are private technically, and then they list them on the

376
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,959
Speaker 1: stock market and they say there's no contradiction in that.

377
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 1: But I did notice that the funds, private equity funds

378
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: and private credit funds that are listed on the ASEX.

379
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 1: This is very broad, but they are down perhaps fifty

380
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,360
Speaker 1: percent more than the market itself. So the market being

381
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 1: down ten percent this year so far, some of those

382
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: big funds down fifteen percent or more. I thought it

383
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 1: might didn't be sharper, And I think any observations on

384
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: that whole scene for our listeners.

385
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 2: I think the comment I would make, we do not

386
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 2: see a lot of appetite for that kind of product

387
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 2: and structure on. Yeah, So if you look at our

388
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 2: younger investors, they're just buying plain vanilla retfs and that

389
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 2: is their strategy, and they're very consistent about it. So

390
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: they're quite sophisticated. They try to time it, but they're

391
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: quite happy to take a small win rather than looking

392
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 2: to time it perfectly and hold out in cash for

393
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 2: a year and a half waiting for a pullback. You know,

394
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: they're just happy to buy consistently. When you look at

395
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 2: our more mature investors, and again this is a bit

396
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 2: of an experienced thing. A lot of them are around

397
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 2: during the GFC and they have seen what happens to

398
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: I liquid assets, regardless of whether or not they're in

399
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 2: a liquid structure. They've seen what happens, and it's very

400
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: clear that they are steering well away from things that

401
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 2: they don't understand and when they diversify away from direct

402
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: equity portfolio. So you know, they have a direct equity

403
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 2: portfolio that have some cash. We obviously don't see everything

404
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 2: they have off platform. They have lots of other things

405
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: generally as well. But if they do go into something

406
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 2: beyond their ASX listed exposure, they tend to stay with

407
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 2: stuff that's pretty vanilla and pretty transparent. You know, they'll

408
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 2: go into international equities, you know, they'll go into some

409
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 2: rates and so on, but then going into more opaque

410
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 2: structures at all.

411
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: I just want to ask you almost repeat, is that

412
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: in your It seems as you have come to a

413
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: conclusion on your own database at NAP trade that the

414
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: older investor has stocks. They probably started off someone said

415
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: to them by ten stocks. They went in, they bolt

416
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 1: two banks, two minors, they've got a supermarket. They played

417
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: around the edges, et cetera. Some years younger went in

418
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: and they started buying ETFs. Then they both then they

419
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: maybe increased their sophistication of their portfolio. They had the AX,

420
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,080
Speaker 1: the S and P. Then they bought NASDAK, then they

421
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: bought Miski, then they bought something US small caps or whatever.

422
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: All fine, here's the thing. It seems to me, if

423
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: it keeps going the way it is, that the ETF

424
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: investors will dominate your platform sooner or later.

425
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: So I get this question a lot, and it's really interesting,

426
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 2: and no, I love it. I think it's such an

427
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 2: interesting question. Right, So, pre COVID ETFs were four percent

428
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 2: of our holdings. They are now fourteen percent of our holdings.

429
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: Fourteen percent still pretty small of a yeah, holdings of

430
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 2: what people hold overall, so we don't manage it for them.

431
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 2: Just sits on the platform. Yeah, fourteen percent. So that's

432
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: bigger than any individual holding, It's not dramatically bigger. So

433
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 2: the sort of top ten Australian stocks, top ten ASX

434
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: stocks make up about fifty percent of holdings. You know,

435
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 2: has that shrunk?

436
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 1: Has that shrunk to thet You've.

437
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: Got to remember our customer base doubled, So the weight

438
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 2: of ETF holding sits in the newer investors, the weight

439
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 2: not all of them, obviously some of our more mature

440
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 2: investors hold ETFs as well, but they tend to add

441
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 2: them to their portfolio. They don't go, God, I'm really

442
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 2: awful at managing my own portfolio. I'm going to sell

443
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: it all down and go into an ETF. They go, oh,

444
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: here's the thing I don't hold. I'll get some S

445
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: and P five hundred. So yeah, it's I think what

446
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 2: is worth noting is, obviously the number of investors has grown.

447
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 2: And I'm extrapolating across the industry here because I suspect

448
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: it's true, particularly for our bigger competitor. There's one competitor

449
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 2: that's bigger th enough. And what you see is your

450
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 2: newer investors are growing the ETF book, and your existing

451
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: investors have a lot of direct equities, and then they

452
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: might can nearbor. Yes.

453
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: Interesting, so, I think, folks, because we are because the

454
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: large investors, the institution investors, dominate the market and swing

455
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 1: the market one way or another. Just be aware of

456
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: this that though it looks like the everyone's selling and

457
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: getting out of the stock market, or at least, you know,

458
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: unloading lots of shares, it's not everyone. It's largely institutional

459
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: investors and pension funds, your own pension fund, no doubt,

460
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: your own super fund. But it's not you the active investor,

461
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: which is very much our listener. Really interesting. Okay, Gemma,

462
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: take short break. We'll come back with some questions. Hello,

463
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: Welcome back to The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. I'm James

464
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: Kirby talking to Jemma Dale of KNAB Trade, who's just

465
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: been telling us some very interesting insights into what's been

466
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: going on behind the headlines really of this share market downturn.

467
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: It is very much an mirror image of what happened

468
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: in the COVID downturn. Except we know how the COVID

469
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: downturn ended. We don't know how this one ends. We

470
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: don't know. Sorry, folks, tell you what we don't. I'm

471
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 1: not even going to try a quick not so much question.

472
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: But a couple of quite a few messages came in

473
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: over the weekend, basically all say the same thing, that

474
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: I was biased against industry funds. I'm not at all,

475
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: and I regularly would say that they suit many people,

476
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: but I would also very quickly say they should never

477
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: be beyond question. Someone also meant the point that as

478
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: a journalist day and writer, you should regularly declare that

479
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: you have an SMSF. I regularly declare I have an SMSF.

480
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: I have an SMSF. I would have mentioned it on

481
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: the show many times. And just for the record, my

482
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: other half is in an industry fund, you see, all

483
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: her life, and despite my entreaties, is involved. Yes, of

484
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: course trustee of the Curbly Superinnuation Fund, but has her

485
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: industry fund going too. So let me tell you there

486
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: are no biases on that. And look, I would just

487
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: say it would be silly of me to have them.

488
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: But there would be times, I suppose on a live

489
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: show like this where if I'm digging in on a

490
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 1: certain theme, it may seem so, but I would strenuously

491
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: defend that I would have an independent view on, especially

492
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: on these big themes. But thank you all the same, everybody,

493
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:16,959
Speaker 1: and do always give us your impressions or observations on

494
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: that sort of thing and keep me in line, all right.

495
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: Question from Danny. Question relates to government health funds. How

496
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: those listed private health companies go since they were battered

497
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: from pillar to post, Gemma, the Ramses and co. I

498
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: mean they've been sought off anyway. I haven't looked but

499
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: I preserved they couldn't have been sought off much further

500
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: in this route and health scope. My bi hanging on

501
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: there and in the middle of it of a takeover

502
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: place should be interesting anyway, quickly, folks, Delly says, if

503
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: my question relates to government health fund loading fee cover

504
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: for over thirty one year olds, you all know about that.

505
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: If you're over thirty one day, they double get you

506
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 1: if you don't get your cover. So he says it's

507
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: often better. You're often better off paying Medicare levy than

508
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: the health cover due to expensive loading. So you could

509
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 1: easily be persuaded to buy health cover private insurance cover

510
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: if you are older over thirty one. What are your

511
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 1: thoughts on this? Okay? We went to James Gerard, our

512
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 1: friend financial advisor. He says the loading is collected by

513
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 1: the private health insurer and not forwarded to the government.

514
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: It's the private health surer keeps the loading correct. There

515
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: are several instances where the Medicare levy search charge will

516
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: work out better than the hospital coverage under a private

517
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: health insurance policy. This signals the actual benefits of the

518
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: policy and purely focuses on what is less pain financially,

519
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: what is cheaper? Okay? And then James says, as Daney noted,

520
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: O the people who are liable for a large surcharge

521
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: and people whose income is just over the threshold for

522
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: the surcharge may be better off just paying the surcharge.

523
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: But if you go down the path of paying the

524
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: surcharge and sidestepping a hospital insurance policy and make sure

525
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: you have a good public hospital nearby because you never

526
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: know when you might need it, what there you are?

527
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: James Gerard has covered all potential angles there, but it

528
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: is it's something that has come up, and it's something

529
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: we're quite acutely aware of. And that's always the answer,

530
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, if you if it's strictly speaking,

531
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: if you want to do with the cheapest way, you

532
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,719
Speaker 1: know it's quite obvious what to do, but you take

533
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: a risk, all right? Now? A question from Keaton where

534
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 1: Jema can come back in? I hope Keaton first name says,

535
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: a share I regrettably bought was recently delisted from the

536
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: ASX and listed on the NSX. I've never heard of

537
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: this exchange. My understanding is I need to sell my

538
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 1: shares to write off the loss against my gains from

539
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: selling other more successful shares. What is the easiest way

540
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,479
Speaker 1: to do this? Help would be appreciated. Okay, no advice.

541
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: We never give you advice. This is information only and

542
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: you would never just on the phrasing there. I expect

543
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: all the I'm talking to, all the Keatons in the

544
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: world need to sell shares to write off the last

545
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: against capital gains. You may do so if you wish,

546
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: but that would be the theory behind that would be

547
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: you do it if you want to do it. All right? Ever,

548
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: hear of the NSX gemen. Do you deal with them

549
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: at all?

550
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: So, yes, I'm aware of it. We do not offer

551
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: the NSX. We do offer tri X. We don't offer

552
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: the NX. We offer you off for THEX.

553
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: We should help keeping first of all by telling him,

554
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 1: you know, it's basically it's in an attempt as an

555
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: alternative exchange to the AX. There's been several of them.

556
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: There are several of them, very very small and not

557
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: particularly well known, but.

558
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, still small. If you go to their website,

559
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 2: it'd actually list the brokers that you can use to

560
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: trade through them. So Keaton, if you want to go

561
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 2: to their website, you can find out who will be

562
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 2: able to place trades on your behalf through that exchange,

563
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 2: and you can potentially get them to act on your behalf.

564
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: And it's a perfect I mean to make it clear,

565
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: it's a perfectly legitimate exchange. Have This is just an

566
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: attempt and there have been several attempts. And there are

567
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: other exchanges that you mentioned another one X yeah X

568
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: c hi dah X you see.

569
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: Now, goodness may I'm out of date now called used

570
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: to be called t X. Sorry giving away my age already.

571
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: If you think about the US, you know they've got

572
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: different markets, right, we don't talk about you know, they

573
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 1: got the S and P, they got the Dow Jones,

574
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: they got the nasdak all in the one country and

575
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: there wasn't There's been attempts to try and build and

576
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: not to have the AX have a monopoly, which is

577
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: not a healthy thing at all. But that's the historical

578
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 1: background there. NSX is a perfectly just useful small exchange

579
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: and as Jemma says, just look at their website to

580
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: see the brokers they use. And if you then should

581
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: desire to sell your shares for whatever reason, including the

582
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: fact that they don't seem to have been going very well.

583
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: If you say the word regrettably holding them, then you

584
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: can just pick one of those brokers, all right. Terrific. Well, Gemma,

585
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: what a great time to have you on. We could

586
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: talk every day, good market, We could talk every morning

587
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: for a while and it would all be really interesting

588
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 1: for our listeners. I thought today was terrific, a really

589
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: fresh insight into what's going up, back, going on, back up,

590
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: statistically and evidence based, which is what we are all

591
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: about here. Okay, thanks very much, Gemma.

592
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: Absolute pleasure. Thank you for having me.

593
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: Great to have you on, as always, great to have

594
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: Jemma Daye there of trade, head of investor behavior and

595
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: something of a doyen of market inside trading data, which

596
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: on days like this or weeks like this, is very

597
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: interesting to know. So turns out active investors, independent investors

598
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: are actually in their bargain hunting already, folks. We will

599
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: see how they get on in the days to come.

600
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: We will talk to Sam Wiley later in the week.

601
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: Until then, let's have some more correspondence. Great to have

602
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: those questions today The Money Puzzle at the Australia dot

603
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: Com dot AU. Today's show was produced by the Assema Group.

604
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon, HM,