WEBVTT - Sharri | 20 May

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<v Speaker 1>Live on Sky News. This is Sharry Good Evening. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>kylab Bond and Will Kingston. I'd say the kids love

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<v Speaker 1>playing Minecraft on the computer, so maybe they enjoyed in

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<v Speaker 1>the real minds. He's what's coming up tonight? Why the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition breakup may end up being the best thing for

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<v Speaker 1>both parties. I'll give you my thoughts in a moment.

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<v Speaker 1>The Reserve Bank cuts rates again. But would it have

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<v Speaker 1>happened if not for Trump's tariffs? I'll talk to experienced

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<v Speaker 1>economist Warren Hogan, and questions mount about senior Democrats and

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<v Speaker 1>what they knew about Joe Biden's health as he goes

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<v Speaker 1>public with his cancer diagnosis. Well, what an extraordinary day

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<v Speaker 1>in Australian political history. The Liberal and National Party coalition

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<v Speaker 1>splitting for the first time in nearly forty years, and

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<v Speaker 1>only the third time since they came together in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>forty nine. Now, those two other breaks and the coalition

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<v Speaker 1>were in seventy two after Goff Whitlam beat Billy McMahon.

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<v Speaker 1>They came back together before the seventy four election and

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<v Speaker 1>for four months in nineteen eighty seven over the Joe

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<v Speaker 1>for Canberra campaign. Now, in some ways this could be good,

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<v Speaker 1>but obviously in the short term it weakened conservative politics

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<v Speaker 1>in this country. You have the crazy situation of the

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<v Speaker 1>Albanese government holding ninety four seats and the Liberal opposition

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<v Speaker 1>now the official opposition, holding just twenty eight, even though

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<v Speaker 1>the Liberals and Nationals will still largely work in tandem.

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<v Speaker 1>Without a formal coalition, you have a huge government and

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<v Speaker 1>a tiny opposition. It deprives the official Opposition of course,

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<v Speaker 1>of experienced talent in the Nationals, and it means Lee

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<v Speaker 1>Susan Lee will have to construct her shadow ministry entirely

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<v Speaker 1>from the Liberal party room sorry, which is diminished now.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of the details around how and why this happened

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<v Speaker 1>are quite sensational. National's leader David Little Proud gave Susan

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<v Speaker 1>Lee half an hour's notice that he was going to

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<v Speaker 1>kill the coalition agreement. The major reason for that split

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<v Speaker 1>was that the Nats wanted a guarantee on policy positions.

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<v Speaker 1>The Australian reported today that the four policy demands confirmed

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<v Speaker 1>by National MP senators and key officials at a meeting

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<v Speaker 1>last Friday, focused on nuclear energy, forced a vestiture of

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<v Speaker 1>supermarkets that recently announced twenty billion dollar Regional Future Fund

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<v Speaker 1>and enforced universal service obligations, ensuring reliable mobile phone coverage

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<v Speaker 1>in the regions. The problem with that is that Lee

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<v Speaker 1>has been explicit in not yet committing to a policy agenda.

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<v Speaker 2>The Nationals sought specific commitments on certain policies, and they've

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<v Speaker 2>talked about that this morning. And our perspective is not

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<v Speaker 2>about the individual policies themselves, but the approach that we

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<v Speaker 2>said we would take to our party room about policies.

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<v Speaker 2>Nothing adopted and nothing abandoned. So at this point in

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<v Speaker 2>time I asked the Nationals to respect those party room processes.

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<v Speaker 1>Lee proposed a little proud that they form a shadow

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<v Speaker 1>cabinet of both Liberal and National members, as is the

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<v Speaker 1>standard for the coalition. Then both parties should go away

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<v Speaker 1>and sort out their respective policy positions and come back

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss. Now. I can understand why the Nationals might

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<v Speaker 1>be uncomfortable with that, because even though the Liberals and

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<v Speaker 1>Nationals are allowed a conscience vote, members of the shadow

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<v Speaker 1>cabinet a duty bound to support the coalition's policy and leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you don't yet have a cohesive policy plan,

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<v Speaker 1>it's difficult to understand what you're signing up for. So

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<v Speaker 1>the Nationals requested that any of their shadow cabinet members

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<v Speaker 1>be given a free vote, which would allow them to

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<v Speaker 1>oppose it zero for instance, even if the Liberals stayed

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<v Speaker 1>with the policy. But that kind of situation simply isn't tenable.

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<v Speaker 1>You can't have different members of cabinet singing from separate

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<v Speaker 1>hymn books. Otherwise there isn't much point in cabinet. So

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<v Speaker 1>to some degree they both been as unreasonable as each other,

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<v Speaker 1>and it will in the short term at least be

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<v Speaker 1>a free kick to the government.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Both Lee and Little Proud were clear today that they

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<v Speaker 1>are open to reforming the Coalition, and Little Proud more

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<v Speaker 1>or less said he wants to. He described it as

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<v Speaker 1>a breakup to have some time apart.

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<v Speaker 3>What this is.

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<v Speaker 4>About is about taking a deep breath to be able

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<v Speaker 4>to say to the Australian people that this is a

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<v Speaker 4>time of part for us to be better, to be better,

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<v Speaker 4>to focus on them. Now we have a clear focus

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<v Speaker 4>on the people we know we want to represent.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 4>I want to allow Susan the time for her leadership

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<v Speaker 4>to shine, to be able to give her the opportunity

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<v Speaker 4>to go and be able to demonstrate that, but to

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<v Speaker 4>design that and be able to come back together. This

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<v Speaker 4>is a healthy part of our democracy. Though that was

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<v Speaker 4>too proud of.

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<v Speaker 1>He even said Lee could be the next prime minister.

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<v Speaker 4>The commitment both Susan and I made is that we

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<v Speaker 4>will work together to give her the space. You got

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<v Speaker 4>to understand, Susan has been given an enviewable position to

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<v Speaker 4>actually try and restore AHI have faith in her. I

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<v Speaker 4>actually think it is conceivable that she can win the.

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<v Speaker 1>Next election, but the reality is she can't be prime

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<v Speaker 1>minister without the Nationals. I mean, the Liberals aren't going

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<v Speaker 1>to win another fifty seats in their own right, and

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<v Speaker 1>in the modern world they probably never will. So here's

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<v Speaker 1>why I think this could and it's a qualified could

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<v Speaker 1>be a good thing in the long term. The Liberals

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<v Speaker 1>and the Nationals need each other. If the Libs want

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<v Speaker 1>to have a Liberal prime minister again, they'll need a

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<v Speaker 1>coalition with the Nats. And if the Nationals want to

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<v Speaker 1>exert rural and regional influence over national policy, they need

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<v Speaker 1>to join with someone who could help form government. And

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment it's only the Liberal Party to choose from.

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<v Speaker 1>So really they'll have to come back together, as they

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<v Speaker 1>have before on other occasions. Twice they've done this, but

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<v Speaker 1>this is a shot across the bower message from the

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<v Speaker 1>Nationals to say to the Liberals that they need to

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<v Speaker 1>have a serious reckoning as a party, and in that

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<v Speaker 1>assessment they are correct. As the lnp's Garth Hamilton wrote

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<v Speaker 1>in The Australian yesterday, the best thing about Peter Dutton

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<v Speaker 1>was that he brought peace and stability to our party.

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<v Speaker 1>The worst thing about Peter Dutton was that he brought

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<v Speaker 1>peace and stability to our party. We needed to rid

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<v Speaker 1>ourselves of some of that baggage. We needed to have

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<v Speaker 1>a few internal policy fights to test our resolve. Thomas

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<v Speaker 1>Jefferson believed every generation needs a new revolution, and I

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<v Speaker 1>believe the new generation of Liberals needs that too, by

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<v Speaker 1>having a break in their relationship, having time a part

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<v Speaker 1>to be better. As Little Proud put it today. And

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<v Speaker 1>let's be honest, many of us have done that in

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<v Speaker 1>our romantic relationships and friendships before. The Nationals are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to force those fights, particularly when it comes to net zero,

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<v Speaker 1>and their aim in that regard is noble. The Nats

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<v Speaker 1>haven't lost a Lower House seat at an election since

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and seven, so you can't argue that they

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<v Speaker 1>don't have a blueprint for success. They also managed to

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<v Speaker 1>turn Bendigo marginal, which has been held by Labor since

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen ninety eight, with a nine point seven percent swing.

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<v Speaker 1>The Nationals believe in something, they're clear about it, and

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<v Speaker 1>electorally it's worked for them in rural and regional parts

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<v Speaker 1>of Australia now. The last Liberal leader to deal with

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<v Speaker 1>a coalition breakup, of course, was John Howard during his

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<v Speaker 1>first shot at Prime minister.

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<v Speaker 5>He said this today, I don't compare today's situation with

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<v Speaker 5>nineteen eighty seven, although that was pretty painful.

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<v Speaker 1>I am very sorry that this.

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<v Speaker 5>Has happened, and I urged both parties to work over

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<v Speaker 5>time to put the coalition back together again, because all

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<v Speaker 5>the history of Australia suggests that the glory days of

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<v Speaker 5>the Liberal Party and the National Party, the Old Country Party,

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<v Speaker 5>are when they are working together in government. My experience

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<v Speaker 5>as a Liberal leader and as a coalition and prime

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<v Speaker 5>minister is that if you have a strong coalition and

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<v Speaker 5>plenty of trust, you can resolve any policy different.

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<v Speaker 1>And he's right. They do strengthen each other. They bring

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<v Speaker 1>different perspectives from different parts of the country, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course the broad Church that John how it always talked

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<v Speaker 1>about served the party. Well, I'll repeat what I said

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<v Speaker 1>on Thursday night. The Liberals need the Nationals now more

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<v Speaker 1>than ever. Drop net zero, keep nuclear and build a

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<v Speaker 1>genuine alternative for government. All right, let's stick with the

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<v Speaker 1>coalitions divorce. I'm joined now by former Speaker of the

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<v Speaker 1>House Bronwin Bishop and Liberal Senator Holly Hughes. Bronwin. In

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<v Speaker 1>the long term, do you think this will all just

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<v Speaker 1>work out? It's a little lover's tiff.

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<v Speaker 6>It'll work out, And I'll tell you why. Because we

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<v Speaker 6>have a compulsory preferential voting system. It means it's a

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<v Speaker 6>two party system and the Liberals cannot win without the Nationals.

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<v Speaker 6>Three times they could have, but saw the sense of

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<v Speaker 6>not doing it because the next time round they would

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<v Speaker 6>need it. So when we look at it called a

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<v Speaker 6>spat or a disagreement. That's going on now Nashwater must

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<v Speaker 6>have been like between Earl Page and Mensis at the

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<v Speaker 6>end of the EAP days.

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, those people knew how to draw blood.

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<v Speaker 6>So I was actually in the Parliament in eighty seven,

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<v Speaker 6>that's when I was sworn into the Senate, and I

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<v Speaker 6>was there when the two parties separated it and I

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<v Speaker 6>knew that'd come back together again because that is the history.

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<v Speaker 6>We got compulsory voting in nineteen eighteen, and we got

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<v Speaker 6>or rather we got provisional voting in nineteen eighteen and

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<v Speaker 6>compulsory in twenty three. So it's been there for a

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<v Speaker 6>long time and that's our system. Nigel Farage couldn't happen

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<v Speaker 6>here because of.

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<v Speaker 1>Our voting system exactly because they were past.

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<v Speaker 6>They were come back together out of sheer survival.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, for a couple more months you will sit in the.

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<v Speaker 7>Senate as not counting down, so you won't.

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<v Speaker 1>Have to deal with any of this, and you may

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<v Speaker 1>will be glad of that.

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<v Speaker 7>I think I've dodged a bullet.

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<v Speaker 1>But a what do you think the Nationals are playing

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<v Speaker 1>at here? And be will it affect the Libs?

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<v Speaker 7>Some bit perplexed by the timing.

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<v Speaker 8>I have to be honest, Susan Lee was elected a

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<v Speaker 8>week ago, where three weeks out from the last election.

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<v Speaker 7>Where three years from the next election.

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<v Speaker 8>And there's been a lot of commentary, a lot of

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<v Speaker 8>commentary from people who have never been in.

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<v Speaker 7>The party room.

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<v Speaker 8>And the reality is when you go into the party

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<v Speaker 8>room after an election of particularly an election defeat, everything

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<v Speaker 8>is on the table, everything is still there, but it

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<v Speaker 8>is up for review. So it would absolutely have been

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<v Speaker 8>unacceptable for Susan or in fact anyone else had they

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<v Speaker 8>been later of the Liberal Party to go into the

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<v Speaker 8>Nationals and said, yep, okay, we're going to agree to

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<v Speaker 8>put these four policies, the agenda items absolutely in stone

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<v Speaker 8>so that they cannot be changed. It is the Liberal

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<v Speaker 8>Party processes that need to be respected and one of

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<v Speaker 8>the things, and to Garth Hamilton's point in what he said,

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<v Speaker 8>and I said it in an interview earlier today, Peter

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<v Speaker 8>dudn't run a really unified team. But perhaps that was

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<v Speaker 8>actually a bit of a mistake. One of the reasons

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<v Speaker 8>so many of us will call flat footage during the

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<v Speaker 8>election that the policy work hadn't been done was because

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<v Speaker 8>it hadn't gone.

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<v Speaker 7>Through the party room processes.

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<v Speaker 8>It's really important and this is a matter for the

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<v Speaker 8>next party room that they do fight it out. It

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<v Speaker 8>is going to be messy, but it's three years till

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<v Speaker 8>the next election, and if they really want to go

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<v Speaker 8>to the next election as a unified team all singing

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<v Speaker 8>from the same song sheet, knowing what they're standing for,

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<v Speaker 8>and it's it's this isn't a question either of liberal values.

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<v Speaker 8>You know, I've heard a few other commentators say that

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<v Speaker 8>are what they stand for. Liberal values haven't changed, but

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<v Speaker 8>it's the policies, and policies move with the time and

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<v Speaker 8>move with the community as they go.

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<v Speaker 7>So it's not about changing our values.

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<v Speaker 8>Our values are still very much there, but it's making

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<v Speaker 8>sure that the policy that the party room puts forward

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<v Speaker 8>lines up. The other thing I just want to touch

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<v Speaker 8>on that was really important was around the cabinet solidarity.

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<v Speaker 8>Matt Canavan, to his credit, when we went into opposition,

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<v Speaker 8>decided not to take on a shadow portfolio, so he

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<v Speaker 8>was free to sit in the bleachers and throw the

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<v Speaker 8>jaffers as you wanted, when he wanted, as he is

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<v Speaker 8>in the coalition, you're allowed to from the back bench.

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<v Speaker 8>But solidarity of a cabinet is really important. And the

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<v Speaker 8>requests that they could not agree with cabinet colleagues still

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:40.040
<v Speaker 8>hold the positions, still have the staff and the extra pay,

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.080
<v Speaker 8>but then go out and throw their own bombs is

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.800
<v Speaker 8>in my view, completely unacceptable and untenable.

0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 6>It's a good try, let's be honest.

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.559
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, it's a try very Marrian.

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.720
<v Speaker 1>Let and that was that would never ever fly.

0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:59.959
<v Speaker 6>And the other point that you made wholly about no discussion,

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 6>no animosity, no challenges in the party whom It's true,

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 6>and that's exactly what happened under John Houston when I

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 6>was there too, he too had a steady ship, but

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 6>no disagreements going. You need disagreements, absolutely, You've got to

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.680
<v Speaker 6>be able to have Vista band. You know. I have

0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.840
<v Speaker 6>a lot of respect for Peter Dutton. I think he's

0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 6>given great contribution to the country. But I've never been

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 6>in the worst campaign. I think the Houston campaign was

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 6>pretty bad, but this one was pretty.

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:32.120
<v Speaker 9>Just very quickly.

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.760
<v Speaker 1>The Unity ticket continues quickly before we moved on, Holly,

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.319
<v Speaker 1>how much do you think just into price, just into

0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 1>an empertyper price, joining your party room may have effected.

0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 8>Look, it was mentioned today. I think it's definitely an

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:49.880
<v Speaker 8>underlying issue. I have heard from National Party colleagues and

0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 8>their fury is palpable, absolutely palpable, and particularly in the

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 8>center where they have now lost party status in the Senate.

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 8>I think it is a myth for anyone to think

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.320
<v Speaker 8>that somehow Angus Taylor and Enterprise would have kept the

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 8>coalition together. I think that would have been a bomb

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 8>that would have blown it up, maybe irrevtly because they

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 8>are there is a lot of anger there, but that

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 8>it is very welcome in our party.

0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.200
<v Speaker 7>Of that justificate, there is a lot of anger in

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 7>the National Party.

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 6>She was elected from the Country Liberal Party, yes, and

0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 6>there's a bit of a hipocracy in there. The LNP

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 6>is technically part of the Liberal Parties, but by convention

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 6>members can elect to sit in the National Party Room

0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:39.240
<v Speaker 6>and despite the fact they're really under the Liberal Party banner,

0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 6>so it's no different from the country.

0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 7>I've been a party president. You know how all of

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:45.080
<v Speaker 7>this works, I do think.

0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:49.640
<v Speaker 6>And I personally have negotiated and all of those I

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:53.880
<v Speaker 6>have personally negotiated those agreements and the party agreement and

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 6>where the funding goes and so on. And I know

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.480
<v Speaker 6>I said had to drivee a very hard bargain. I

0:14:58.480 --> 0:14:59.400
<v Speaker 6>think I probably did.

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>So we'll get further into all of this stuff a

0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 1>little later with Michael McCormick moving on to some other

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>news today. Labour's under pressure to end at six point

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 1>eight billion dollar power bill rebates, so I'll come back

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 1>to why in a moment. But the Treasurer, for his part,

0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.040
<v Speaker 1>won't rule out extending them.

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.880
<v Speaker 10>We've budgeted for it to end at the end of

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.600
<v Speaker 10>this year, that's clear in the budget papers. But what

0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 10>we do each budget in this room next door is

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 10>we sit down with the Expenditure Review Committee and we

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 10>work out whether we can afford to provide more assistance

0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 10>and if so, what form that, what assistance would take.

0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:33.760
<v Speaker 10>That will be our approach.

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Now that's call to end them is coming from the

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister's Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee, which is the fancy

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 1>term for his welfare working group. They say it should

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.040
<v Speaker 1>instead be spent on solar panels and batteries for low

0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:49.760
<v Speaker 1>income households. So you know, they're not exactly saying we

0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 1>should save some money here, but they do have a

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 1>point in the fact that the rebates need to end

0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>because they do not fix the actual problem, which is

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.600
<v Speaker 1>of course the cost the energy. The rebate simply changes

0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:04.880
<v Speaker 1>what it says on the bill. It doesn't change anything

0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 1>in reality in terms of what it costs to get

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 1>it to.

0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:11.640
<v Speaker 6>But once they embarked on renewables, only their policy and

0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 6>rebuild it rewiring the nation astronomical costs. The single most

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.040
<v Speaker 6>expensive power you can have in the world. That's what

0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.920
<v Speaker 6>they're giving us. They promised two hundred and seventy five

0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 6>dollars of production. No, they can't deliver it, but with

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 6>a three hundred dollars rebate, they're bringing it down. They're

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.600
<v Speaker 6>reducing their inflationary pressure, which is what they've done with

0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 6>it is their bank to make the first cut, nicely

0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 6>timed for the election, of course, so why wouldn't they

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 6>give it up.

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's a good point. Obviously it did worked electorally,

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 1>but I mean, you know, we just wanted add two

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:46.320
<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy five dollars. Are I think that's what

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 1>we were promised, wasn't it.

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 8>Well, I think the unicorn farmers that they've got on

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.479
<v Speaker 8>some of these economic advisory you know, solar panels and batteries,

0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 8>when a lot of people in low income housing are

0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 8>actually in apartments so don't have the options to solar panels.

0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.120
<v Speaker 8>You know, these people actually need to out. I did

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 8>notice the Brotherhood of Saint Lawrence. They had a representative

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 8>on there and he was talking about at least making

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.919
<v Speaker 8>some of these rebates means tested rather than just universal,

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 8>which makes it like you to do it.

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 7>No, you've got to understand. I know we don't have time.

0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 6>There's another very special side to the way that rebate

0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.520
<v Speaker 6>is paid. It's actually paid to the power the energy

0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:25.640
<v Speaker 6>Power Company exactly so, and if you're going to start

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 6>being says you can't do that.

0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.400
<v Speaker 8>Can't do that, and so I have the so called

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.440
<v Speaker 8>inflationary introduction because it's not coming.

0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:32.600
<v Speaker 9>Off the ban.

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.200
<v Speaker 1>And that's the point. It's not a rebate to you.

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 1>We're not stand out to the power company. Thousands of

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 1>firefighters and farmers protested outside Melbourne's Parliament House this morning against,

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>of course, the Allen Government's Emergency Services leavy, which is

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.280
<v Speaker 1>part of today's state budget. I mean, farmers will copy

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:56.960
<v Speaker 1>insane one hundred and fifty percent tax hike. But of

0:17:57.000 --> 0:18:01.320
<v Speaker 1>course many of these farmers are the volunteer firefighters who

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 1>will supposedly benefit from this increased tax. So they're now

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:09.200
<v Speaker 1>cutting crook. They're saying they won't put their uniforms on anymore.

0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:12.639
<v Speaker 1>There's been vision going around to people burning their uniforms.

0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 1>They're turning their pages off and saying, we'll bugger you.

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 1>Why would we help out if you're going to charge

0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.800
<v Speaker 1>us to do the work that you won't pay someone

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.960
<v Speaker 1>to do. Victorian oppositionally to brad Batten said they would

0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:25.560
<v Speaker 1>repeal this if they win in government.

0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 6>I will make the commitment to you that if we

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.200
<v Speaker 6>are elected on November next year.

0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:35.680
<v Speaker 11>The Victorian Liberals will scrap that tax and land that money.

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:36.240
<v Speaker 12>Back to Victoria.

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.919
<v Speaker 1>Now, look, if you're a landowner in Victoria, Bronwin, you

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.040
<v Speaker 1>are essentially an enemy of the state because what they've

0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:45.919
<v Speaker 1>done to land tax down there is ridiculous. But this

0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 1>is effectively just another land tax based Still, we'll just

0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.920
<v Speaker 1>get some more money out of you. And funnily enough,

0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>the money they're going to pull in from this is

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:58.240
<v Speaker 1>very similar to the surplus today. They said they would post.

0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.480
<v Speaker 6>Funny about that, isn't it. But this is what socialists do.

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 6>We often hear the expression that they tax and spend.

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.240
<v Speaker 6>Uh ah, they spend a tax because they hand out

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:12.160
<v Speaker 6>the money. What they want to do is make people

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 6>dependent on the government. And if they rip it off

0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 6>a particular group of people, they don't care about that.

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.160
<v Speaker 6>They simply want more and more people to be depended

0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:24.359
<v Speaker 6>on them so they can keep their nice little spot

0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.720
<v Speaker 6>of power. So I don't think that's going to work.

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 6>This time, well, it kind of at least we've got

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:31.160
<v Speaker 6>an opposition.

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:32.240
<v Speaker 1>Now, Well, that's.

0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:37.600
<v Speaker 8>Said that elections have consequences, and this has been the

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:41.560
<v Speaker 8>consequence of consistently electing a labor government in Victoria has

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:45.240
<v Speaker 8>been this astronomical growth in state debt that they're now

0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:47.880
<v Speaker 8>trying to get on top of. It's also the reason

0:19:47.960 --> 0:19:51.280
<v Speaker 8>why strong oppositions are important. And hopefully with brad Batten

0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 8>and some of the other more fringe issues they were

0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 8>concerned with more recently behind them, and the Liberal Party

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.000
<v Speaker 8>in Victoria can get its act together to actually put

0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:02.760
<v Speaker 8>up an opposition.

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:05.000
<v Speaker 7>Because elections have consequences.

0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:08.400
<v Speaker 8>And when you elect people who have no economic understanding

0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 8>and they just keep spending and keep spending and keep spending,

0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 8>they are going to come for it at some stage.

0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:17.520
<v Speaker 7>And this is what they're saying in Victoria. And we

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.680
<v Speaker 7>could stay nationally sooner than we all think.

0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:22.679
<v Speaker 1>You'd like to think so. And of course, you know,

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:26.320
<v Speaker 1>as I said when she became the Premiere of Victoria

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.400
<v Speaker 1>to sin Heer Allen, ain't no Daniel Andrews. And it's

0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:31.959
<v Speaker 1>very difficult to hold together what Andrews put together if

0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:35.600
<v Speaker 1>you're not Andrews himself. Now Labour's supertext is so unpopular

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.920
<v Speaker 1>even Tier independent Manique Ryan has criticized what she called

0:20:39.160 --> 0:20:42.880
<v Speaker 1>the poorly considered an harmful and unfair policy. She said

0:20:42.920 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 1>the government's plan to increase tax on high balances shouldn't

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.560
<v Speaker 1>include taxation of unrealized games, just common sense stuff and

0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:52.000
<v Speaker 1>it must be indexed if it does happen. I know

0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:55.119
<v Speaker 1>Kate Cheney in Wa has come out against it too. Now,

0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 1>of course some bronwin that the Teals might realize that

0:20:57.520 --> 0:20:59.680
<v Speaker 1>they have people in their seats who may will fall

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.359
<v Speaker 1>into the category, so they know what side their breed

0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>is battered on. But what they say is correct. I

0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:10.480
<v Speaker 1>mean the idea that the concept of taxing unrealized capital

0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:12.280
<v Speaker 1>gains from Biden.

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:15.520
<v Speaker 7>It is it is workamala.

0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:20.000
<v Speaker 1>It is insane because once you say you can tax

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>someone on a profit that they haven't cashed in their

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 1>super where does it go next?

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.160
<v Speaker 9>Well, it's called theft. Actually all taxation is theft.

0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:29.880
<v Speaker 7>Well, no, some.

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:33.200
<v Speaker 6>Taxation is quite legitimate, but this is theft. And they

0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:37.760
<v Speaker 6>regard the Labor Party regards that four trillion dollars of

0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 6>superannuation money is their money, not the foregone wages that

0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 6>the people who earned it. It belongs to individuals. It's

0:21:45.359 --> 0:21:48.399
<v Speaker 6>not a corporate ownership or a collective ownership. It's an

0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:52.960
<v Speaker 6>individual ownership. But they don't acknowledge that and this principle.

0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:56.480
<v Speaker 6>If they get it up, what should spread. And that's

0:21:56.560 --> 0:22:00.359
<v Speaker 6>the really evil nature of it. But if a few

0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:04.480
<v Speaker 6>interesting enough in the campaigning that I did during the campaign,

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 6>that's what I talked about the evilness of this tax

0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:10.560
<v Speaker 6>and the people that would really hit other millennials.

0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:15.919
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so the time they get up here, two year

0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.159
<v Speaker 1>old today on an average wage for the rest of them,

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:19.160
<v Speaker 1>and yet.

0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 6>The snake charmer, the treasurer has the audacity to say, oh, well,

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:28.480
<v Speaker 6>in the US ahead, some government might choose to index it.

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 9>What happens.

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:33.959
<v Speaker 1>And it's you could just index it yourself. We only

0:22:34.000 --> 0:22:34.760
<v Speaker 1>got twenty seconds.

0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:36.200
<v Speaker 9>Hold, But this is something.

0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 8>Because they're going to get a small reduction on the heck,

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:42.800
<v Speaker 8>stead are going to pay that and more into the future,

0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:47.080
<v Speaker 8>whether it's their superannuation, capital gains on their parents' family home,

0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:49.120
<v Speaker 8>the banker. Mum and dad just got a whole lot

0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:51.959
<v Speaker 8>more if these guys get their way, and it's going

0:22:52.040 --> 0:22:55.640
<v Speaker 8>to be not our generation. Well, actually, you are still

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.240
<v Speaker 8>a child Caleb, just.

0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:07.439
<v Speaker 1>You make us Caroline, Caroline, thanks, you are going I know,

0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:10.800
<v Speaker 1>and the coalition should be able to soft coalition anymore.

0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:13.679
<v Speaker 1>Federal Party should be going hard on this as your policy. Anyway.

0:23:13.760 --> 0:23:15.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, we've run out of time. Bronwin Holy thank

0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:18.000
<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining me now. The Prime Minister

0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:20.800
<v Speaker 1>was cheering for more than just the coalition breaking up. Today,

0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:23.800
<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank, of course, handed down its decision to

0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:27.080
<v Speaker 1>cut the official cash rate by twenty five basis points

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:30.399
<v Speaker 1>that takes it to three point eight five percent. Governor

0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>Michelle Bullock said it wasn't an easy decision with so

0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:36.320
<v Speaker 1>many unpredictable factors like trade wars flying around.

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:40.080
<v Speaker 13>The key point about the situation wherein is it's not

0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:43.879
<v Speaker 13>just uncertain, it's actually unpredictable. I'm not putting a strong

0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 13>possibility on a really, really bad outcome, but I think

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:49.120
<v Speaker 13>we have to be alert that there might be.

0:23:50.080 --> 0:23:53.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm joined now by a Judo Bank chief economist, Warren Hogan. Warren,

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:57.879
<v Speaker 1>if we didn't have the Trump tariffs, would we have

0:23:58.000 --> 0:23:59.320
<v Speaker 1>had this rate cut? Do you think?

0:24:00.480 --> 0:24:03.240
<v Speaker 14>Look, I think the global scene has certainly made it

0:24:03.280 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 14>a lot easier for the board today. You look back

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.200
<v Speaker 14>at the last rate cut and the guidance they gave

0:24:08.320 --> 0:24:13.400
<v Speaker 14>then the way the domestic economy has played out, if anything,

0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:16.960
<v Speaker 14>it's probably a little strong, a little bit more employment,

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:20.400
<v Speaker 14>and it would have made it a more lineball decision

0:24:20.480 --> 0:24:24.000
<v Speaker 14>for sure. But it's quite clear from both the statement

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 14>on monetary policy, their forecasts, and then the commentary from

0:24:27.000 --> 0:24:30.840
<v Speaker 14>the governor that they are very worried about something going

0:24:30.880 --> 0:24:33.879
<v Speaker 14>wrong in the global economy and getting caught with an

0:24:33.920 --> 0:24:37.280
<v Speaker 14>interest rate that's above what they think is neutral or

0:24:37.320 --> 0:24:38.880
<v Speaker 14>still in a restrictive setting.

0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:43.520
<v Speaker 1>So on that basis, should we expect further well.

0:24:43.400 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 14>I think that's the guidance that they've given. I think

0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:49.040
<v Speaker 14>the governors made it pretty soft guidance in the sense

0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 14>that they're forecasting inflation pretty much from now being close

0:24:53.680 --> 0:24:58.639
<v Speaker 14>to target, and they're factoring in the market expectation for

0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:01.880
<v Speaker 14>the cash rate to come at least three more times,

0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:06.159
<v Speaker 14>and they're sort of giving some credence to that. So

0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:07.600
<v Speaker 14>I think in the back of their mind they think,

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:10.960
<v Speaker 14>if all goes well, they can cut at least one

0:25:11.000 --> 0:25:13.800
<v Speaker 14>more time, if not two. And of course the Governor's

0:25:13.800 --> 0:25:17.560
<v Speaker 14>clear message is if things go badly wrong in the

0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:21.199
<v Speaker 14>global economy, they will be cutting more than that, and

0:25:21.240 --> 0:25:23.600
<v Speaker 14>the market will continue to price that as a risk.

0:25:24.000 --> 0:25:26.440
<v Speaker 1>Well, exactly how hard and fast would they cut, because,

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:29.080
<v Speaker 1>of course the risk is last time we ended up

0:25:29.080 --> 0:25:32.400
<v Speaker 1>in a global problem, which of course was COVID, we

0:25:32.480 --> 0:25:35.960
<v Speaker 1>cut really hard and then ended up with large inflation.

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:38.200
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's it.

0:25:38.359 --> 0:25:42.359
<v Speaker 14>We are in a very different inflationary setting to anything

0:25:42.400 --> 0:25:44.400
<v Speaker 14>we've seen in the last twenty years.

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:46.040
<v Speaker 3>We're really having to go back to the.

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:49.480
<v Speaker 14>Nineteen eighties and nineteen to seventies to be in that

0:25:49.600 --> 0:25:52.800
<v Speaker 14>kind of world where if you get this wrong, you're

0:25:52.800 --> 0:25:56.399
<v Speaker 14>going to get a pretty severe inflation consequence. So look,

0:25:56.480 --> 0:26:00.119
<v Speaker 14>I think they're going to be limited in how much

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:03.440
<v Speaker 14>they can cut unless it is a very dire situation.

0:26:03.560 --> 0:26:06.280
<v Speaker 14>And when I mean dire, I mean we are going

0:26:06.359 --> 0:26:08.600
<v Speaker 14>to have to be seeing people losing their jobs in

0:26:08.680 --> 0:26:12.560
<v Speaker 14>unemployment going up, which at this stage there's no sign

0:26:12.600 --> 0:26:15.520
<v Speaker 14>of that. In fact, everything has settled down it remarkably

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:18.320
<v Speaker 14>well in the last three weeks. And of course we

0:26:18.400 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 14>still do have this inflation, and we have an economy

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:22.919
<v Speaker 14>producing jobs or beeat a lot of them in public sector,

0:26:23.640 --> 0:26:25.679
<v Speaker 14>but that is income out there. So I think for

0:26:25.720 --> 0:26:27.359
<v Speaker 14>the time being, the best way to think about interest

0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:29.120
<v Speaker 14>rates is they can come down a little bit more,

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:31.800
<v Speaker 14>but the Reserve Bank's ready to move more aggressively if

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:32.719
<v Speaker 14>things go wrong.

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:34.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure of youers at home happy to hear that.

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:37.280
<v Speaker 1>Warren Hogan, thank you so much for your time. Still

0:26:37.320 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 1>to come. Trump's announced that Ukraine and Russia are ready

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:43.399
<v Speaker 1>to negotiate a cease fire deal. But did putin get

0:26:43.440 --> 0:26:46.800
<v Speaker 1>the MIMO Malcolm Davis coming up soon and first we'll

0:26:46.840 --> 0:26:49.680
<v Speaker 1>get some insider information as to why the Nationals broke

0:26:49.760 --> 0:26:51.879
<v Speaker 1>up with the Liberals and what it could take to

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 1>win them back. Michael McCormick will fill us in on

0:26:54.040 --> 0:27:01.560
<v Speaker 1>what's happened from his perspective soon. All right, let's return

0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 1>to the biggest breakup in Australia at the moment, the

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>coalition breakup. Of course, we've me now hopefully to provide

0:27:07.080 --> 0:27:12.000
<v Speaker 1>some insider information is National ZMP Michael McCormick. Michael, thank

0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 1>you for joining me. I explained to the top of

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:17.440
<v Speaker 1>the show that I think this could ultimately the best

0:27:17.840 --> 0:27:21.200
<v Speaker 1>be the best thing for the coalition. Did you back

0:27:21.240 --> 0:27:21.679
<v Speaker 1>this split?

0:27:23.040 --> 0:27:27.399
<v Speaker 11>Well, I'm a coalitionist first and foremost, and the situation

0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:30.439
<v Speaker 11>is that Party Ram has taken a decision based on

0:27:30.640 --> 0:27:33.879
<v Speaker 11>what we believe is the right path for us and

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:38.040
<v Speaker 11>the Liberals to take. We put several propositions to the

0:27:38.080 --> 0:27:43.920
<v Speaker 11>Liberal Party, Universal Service Obligation so more mobile coverage, more

0:27:43.960 --> 0:27:49.480
<v Speaker 11>towers to vestiture hows, cheaper groceries, nuclear, more affordable reliable energy,

0:27:49.560 --> 0:27:53.280
<v Speaker 11>and the Regional Australia Future Fund, which meant more infrastructure

0:27:53.280 --> 0:27:57.120
<v Speaker 11>for country areas. But the Liberal Party, through Susan Lee,

0:27:57.520 --> 0:28:00.840
<v Speaker 11>didn't want to sign off on those immediately. They were

0:28:00.960 --> 0:28:03.840
<v Speaker 11>dying the ditch issues for the Nationals and so we've

0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:08.960
<v Speaker 11>decided to take this break, hopefully only temporary, but we'll

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 11>work through it. I know that David Little Prowd went

0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:13.800
<v Speaker 11>to the Liberals in good faith, and I know that

0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:15.320
<v Speaker 11>Susan Lee as.

0:28:15.119 --> 0:28:17.520
<v Speaker 12>Well also listened.

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:19.400
<v Speaker 3>In fact, we haven't.

0:28:19.200 --> 0:28:22.919
<v Speaker 12>Been able to break an arrangement and agreement this time.

0:28:23.280 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 11>Doesn't mean to say that we can't get back together

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:28.360
<v Speaker 11>and continue the coalition in the future.

0:28:28.800 --> 0:28:30.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean you call it a break. But if these

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:34.080
<v Speaker 1>are die in the ditch issues and the Liberal Party

0:28:34.080 --> 0:28:37.080
<v Speaker 1>doesn't come to the table, does the break become a

0:28:37.119 --> 0:28:38.120
<v Speaker 1>full blown break up?

0:28:38.960 --> 0:28:42.040
<v Speaker 11>Well, time will tell, but I'd like to think that

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:44.560
<v Speaker 11>we can get back together. John Howard always said that

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 11>the Australian nation is best serve and we've got a coalition.

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.080
<v Speaker 12>Liberal and Nationals in government united together.

0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 11>We've very much taken that sort of conciliatory and pragmatic

0:28:57.200 --> 0:28:59.719
<v Speaker 11>approach to the Liberal Party. Just remembering we won all

0:28:59.720 --> 0:29:02.880
<v Speaker 11>of our fifteen Lower House seats in the recent election.

0:29:03.480 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 11>We transitioned three seats parks Line and indeed Hinkler in Queensland,

0:29:09.920 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 11>and we retained the other twelve seats which were incumbents

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:17.880
<v Speaker 11>we're running in the Liberal Party did not do so well,

0:29:18.280 --> 0:29:21.680
<v Speaker 11>and we've now for four for under four leaders, six

0:29:21.720 --> 0:29:23.880
<v Speaker 11>elections in a row, retained each and every one of

0:29:23.880 --> 0:29:25.280
<v Speaker 11>our House and representative seats.

0:29:25.360 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 12>So other parties could learn a thing or three from the.

0:29:27.600 --> 0:29:30.560
<v Speaker 11>Nationals and the way we represent our people, the way

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:34.400
<v Speaker 11>we turn up, the way we take the people's voices

0:29:34.440 --> 0:29:37.880
<v Speaker 11>to Canberra, and we at the moment we will be

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:40.560
<v Speaker 11>taking a bit of a temporary break and we'll see

0:29:40.560 --> 0:29:41.080
<v Speaker 11>what happens.

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:43.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't disagree with those points. I suppose the other

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 1>thing though, is putting aside the policy requests that were

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:49.680
<v Speaker 1>put to the Liberal Party, the idea of not habit

0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:53.760
<v Speaker 1>having cabinet solidarity. Do you think that was reasonable?

0:29:55.720 --> 0:29:59.320
<v Speaker 11>Well, I've crossed the floor, across the floor and moved

0:29:59.320 --> 0:30:02.080
<v Speaker 11>to disallowance on the Murray Darling basin, and I know

0:30:02.520 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 11>how you get sent to Coventry for doing that. In

0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 11>a shadow cabinet or a cabinet, you've got to maintain

0:30:10.720 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 11>that impromata of the rumor. I understand that, but on

0:30:15.120 --> 0:30:19.200
<v Speaker 11>some of these issues. Will remember the wheat arrangement where

0:30:19.240 --> 0:30:23.440
<v Speaker 11>the Australi and wheat marketing was ripped asunder when the

0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:28.520
<v Speaker 11>Liberals sided with Labor the Liberals in opposition back in

0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:31.200
<v Speaker 11>two thousand and eight. I believe it was you know,

0:30:31.280 --> 0:30:35.040
<v Speaker 11>the the Nationals were given the right to veto that,

0:30:35.240 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 11>and I think it was the wrong move to make

0:30:36.840 --> 0:30:39.120
<v Speaker 11>at the time, and we're still seeing the effects of that.

0:30:39.200 --> 0:30:43.440
<v Speaker 11>But look, if you cross the floor or if you

0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 11>don't agree with Labor Party policy, you get expelled from

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 11>the party.

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:49.000
<v Speaker 12>At least that's not the case in the Nationals already

0:30:49.040 --> 0:30:49.720
<v Speaker 12>do the Liberals.

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:53.360
<v Speaker 11>You can have different policy positions, but as a minister

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:57.680
<v Speaker 11>or a shadow minister, you are expected to essentially go

0:30:57.800 --> 0:30:59.560
<v Speaker 11>with what the majority in the room goes.

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:03.240
<v Speaker 1>Just very quickly before we go. Michael, in the event

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:06.200
<v Speaker 1>that you don't get back together, how will we ever

0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:08.800
<v Speaker 1>end up with a conservative government in this country again?

0:31:09.760 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 12>Look, we will end up with a conservative government again.

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:16.240
<v Speaker 11>There's this labor government through the unrealized capital gains, through

0:31:16.520 --> 0:31:19.120
<v Speaker 11>what they've done with the cost of living, through ignoring

0:31:19.160 --> 0:31:21.239
<v Speaker 11>the needs of regional Australia where we grow all our

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 11>food and fiber and all the resources of mine to

0:31:23.720 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 11>help keep the lights on.

0:31:25.280 --> 0:31:27.080
<v Speaker 12>They will be so bad over the next three is.

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:28.880
<v Speaker 11>If you thought they were bad in the first three

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:32.120
<v Speaker 11>years the first term, you ain't seen nothing yet. And

0:31:32.800 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 11>I think what's best for Australia will be that the

0:31:34.840 --> 0:31:36.280
<v Speaker 11>Liberals and Nationals we'll get together.

0:31:36.320 --> 0:31:38.080
<v Speaker 12>We'll reach an agreement eventually.

0:31:38.040 --> 0:31:41.920
<v Speaker 11>And we'll get back together and hopefully in twenty twenty

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:44.400
<v Speaker 11>eight we can show that we are a credible opposition

0:31:44.480 --> 0:31:45.800
<v Speaker 11>and we can return to government.

0:31:46.000 --> 0:31:47.800
<v Speaker 1>Well, as I said earlier, I think if it pulls

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the Liberal Party that isn't in the right direction, it

0:31:50.080 --> 0:31:52.360
<v Speaker 1>will have been worth it. Michael McCormick, thank you for

0:31:52.400 --> 0:31:55.120
<v Speaker 1>your time. So we heard what Michael thought there and

0:31:55.120 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>his reasons for the Nationals leaving the Liberals, but joining

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:01.400
<v Speaker 1>me on the desk now the Daily Telegraph, James willis,

0:32:01.720 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 1>what do you make of what Michael says there? That

0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:06.840
<v Speaker 1>you know this is a grab bag of policies that

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the Liberal Party have to accede too. There's no ifs

0:32:10.280 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 1>or butts about it. The Liberal Party would say to that, well,

0:32:14.160 --> 0:32:17.120
<v Speaker 1>we have seen very clearly that everything is on the

0:32:17.120 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 1>table and we are going to review absolutely everything. We

0:32:20.720 --> 0:32:23.000
<v Speaker 1>haven't had time to come to that position yet.

0:32:23.040 --> 0:32:26.360
<v Speaker 15>Well, calib I think Michael's middle answer, and he's not

0:32:26.440 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 15>the first National MP to make this point.

0:32:28.080 --> 0:32:29.120
<v Speaker 9>In the last few.

0:32:29.000 --> 0:32:33.880
<v Speaker 15>Days or since the election whitewash. The National Party vote

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:35.760
<v Speaker 15>and the number of seats that they have won has

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:39.120
<v Speaker 15>held up at the last three or four elections. So

0:32:39.360 --> 0:32:41.720
<v Speaker 15>if you strip this back and you took away some

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:45.240
<v Speaker 15>of the political rumor in innuendo and the future of

0:32:45.280 --> 0:32:48.160
<v Speaker 15>a Conservative government. If you had two companies that were

0:32:48.160 --> 0:32:52.000
<v Speaker 15>involved in a long time agreement and they suffered a

0:32:52.040 --> 0:32:55.840
<v Speaker 15>disaster like this and one company was to blame, the

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:58.520
<v Speaker 15>other company would be doing everything possible for its own

0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.880
<v Speaker 15>shareholders to move away from that company and focus on

0:33:01.920 --> 0:33:04.920
<v Speaker 15>the issues that matter. And I think the Nationals, despite

0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:07.800
<v Speaker 15>being small and never being able to hold power themselves.

0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:10.080
<v Speaker 15>I don't think there's any doubt that the majority of

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:12.080
<v Speaker 15>them stand for the same stuff. They stick up for

0:33:12.120 --> 0:33:14.080
<v Speaker 15>the Bush. They believe in nuclear power, they're going to

0:33:14.080 --> 0:33:16.800
<v Speaker 15>push forward with that, whereas the Liberal Party at this

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:19.600
<v Speaker 15>point in time have got to sort their own backyard

0:33:19.640 --> 0:33:22.200
<v Speaker 15>out before they even look at taking you on labor.

0:33:22.240 --> 0:33:24.160
<v Speaker 15>And the big issue with the Liberal Party is whether

0:33:24.160 --> 0:33:27.520
<v Speaker 15>we go in the moderate direction, whether we try.

0:33:27.360 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 9>And figure out with this broad churches.

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.280
<v Speaker 15>But clearly in the lead up to the poll there

0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:34.080
<v Speaker 15>were moderates that weren't happy with the direction Peter Dutton

0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:36.680
<v Speaker 15>was taking. I get the feeling that's why he kept

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:39.520
<v Speaker 15>the party room sometimes out of some of these policy issues,

0:33:39.760 --> 0:33:41.360
<v Speaker 15>because you had a divided party there.

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:43.120
<v Speaker 9>You can't say the same for the Nationals.

0:33:43.400 --> 0:33:45.320
<v Speaker 15>So at this point in time, I think it's in

0:33:45.360 --> 0:33:47.440
<v Speaker 15>the National's best interest to run their own race.

0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:49.200
<v Speaker 9>Keep nuclear on the agenda.

0:33:49.480 --> 0:33:51.880
<v Speaker 15>The other two policies you mentioned the sound like common

0:33:51.920 --> 0:33:55.880
<v Speaker 15>sense to me when you talk about national communications coverage

0:33:55.880 --> 0:33:58.719
<v Speaker 15>for telephone towers and all that sort of thing, cheaper groceries.

0:33:59.040 --> 0:34:00.680
<v Speaker 9>Look, let the Liberal already sorted out.

0:34:00.760 --> 0:34:02.520
<v Speaker 15>The Nationals can run their own race and let's see

0:34:02.520 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 15>what happens and they will get back together. But for

0:34:04.640 --> 0:34:06.440
<v Speaker 15>now I think that's a good call.

0:34:06.760 --> 0:34:08.319
<v Speaker 1>It's hard to see a world in which they don't

0:34:08.320 --> 0:34:10.440
<v Speaker 1>get back together, because of course the Liberals will want

0:34:10.440 --> 0:34:12.759
<v Speaker 1>to form government again one day and the Nationals want

0:34:12.760 --> 0:34:14.640
<v Speaker 1>to get in on the game, so as if they're

0:34:14.680 --> 0:34:17.560
<v Speaker 1>not going to get back together. But the game they

0:34:17.560 --> 0:34:19.480
<v Speaker 1>are playing here is to drag the liberal in the

0:34:19.840 --> 0:34:22.239
<v Speaker 1>Liberal Party in the direction they want them to go,

0:34:22.440 --> 0:34:26.040
<v Speaker 1>so potentially to drop knits zero and to definitely back

0:34:26.040 --> 0:34:31.240
<v Speaker 1>in nuclear because these are serious differences that you create

0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 1>with the Labor government, and that was one of the

0:34:34.160 --> 0:34:37.879
<v Speaker 1>major problems with Peter Dutton and the opposition he led

0:34:37.960 --> 0:34:40.359
<v Speaker 1>is that you know, particularly through the campaign, I mean,

0:34:40.560 --> 0:34:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Labor put their hand ups, will spend eight billion dollars

0:34:42.960 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 1>over here, and then Peter Dutton put his air apples,

0:34:44.680 --> 0:34:46.759
<v Speaker 1>it will step to spend eight billion over here. The

0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:50.520
<v Speaker 1>differences were not stack So why would you go with

0:34:50.719 --> 0:34:53.640
<v Speaker 1>just a slightly different looking version of what you've already got?

0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:57.520
<v Speaker 1>And many would say, including within the Liberal Party, that

0:34:57.640 --> 0:35:00.480
<v Speaker 1>you know the Teals are doing all right, come to

0:35:00.520 --> 0:35:02.440
<v Speaker 1>that in a minute. So we've got to go more

0:35:02.480 --> 0:35:05.600
<v Speaker 1>in that teal direction. If you go in that teal direction,

0:35:05.880 --> 0:35:07.799
<v Speaker 1>look at the seats the Liberal Party lost at this

0:35:07.880 --> 0:35:11.000
<v Speaker 1>election out of suburban seats. You're not going to win

0:35:11.080 --> 0:35:13.239
<v Speaker 1>the outer suburbs back by going tea.

0:35:13.400 --> 0:35:16.120
<v Speaker 15>Well, that's right, and there were some Liberals today making

0:35:16.160 --> 0:35:18.880
<v Speaker 15>the point to our Canbra correspondents, Oh, we might do

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:21.320
<v Speaker 15>better in the teal seats if we don't have the

0:35:21.440 --> 0:35:23.920
<v Speaker 15>Nationals involved, just sort of you know, spitballing. I mean,

0:35:24.400 --> 0:35:27.239
<v Speaker 15>if anyone seriously thinks that that should be the priority.

0:35:27.560 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 15>Six or seven seats and one hundred and fifty seed

0:35:29.480 --> 0:35:32.320
<v Speaker 15>parliament is madness. If the Liberal Party is faired income

0:35:32.400 --> 0:35:34.279
<v Speaker 15>and they believe, and they figure out what they can

0:35:34.320 --> 0:35:37.320
<v Speaker 15>stand for with the Nationals help, they can win government

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:39.360
<v Speaker 15>back without some of these teal seats which might have

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:42.160
<v Speaker 15>flipped forever. On the other point you made, I think

0:35:42.200 --> 0:35:45.000
<v Speaker 15>it's refreshing and for people that voted for the Nationals

0:35:45.080 --> 0:35:47.239
<v Speaker 15>or people that are watching us in the bush. For

0:35:47.280 --> 0:35:50.560
<v Speaker 15>a long time, the Nationals were accused under separate leaders

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:52.959
<v Speaker 15>of just falling over to the Liberal leader of the day.

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:55.040
<v Speaker 15>So if they're going to use this as a bit

0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:58.120
<v Speaker 15>of a power struggle to take back some control refreshing take.

0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:00.239
<v Speaker 15>I think David Little Proud has handled this well well

0:36:00.680 --> 0:36:03.320
<v Speaker 15>and it's shown that the decision to back him in

0:36:03.400 --> 0:36:05.680
<v Speaker 15>his leader was the right one. Matt Canavan's backed him

0:36:05.680 --> 0:36:07.759
<v Speaker 15>in today as well, So we'll have to wait and see.

0:36:07.760 --> 0:36:09.719
<v Speaker 15>But for the meantime, I think the Nats go okay,

0:36:09.719 --> 0:36:11.640
<v Speaker 15>we've got our House and order, we've got our policies.

0:36:11.640 --> 0:36:13.959
<v Speaker 15>We're going to focus on these. The Libs can figure

0:36:13.960 --> 0:36:15.800
<v Speaker 15>out what they stand for. They're a long way behind.

0:36:15.840 --> 0:36:18.160
<v Speaker 15>We do need them one day, but you want them

0:36:18.160 --> 0:36:20.600
<v Speaker 15>when they're in a position to win back government, not

0:36:20.640 --> 0:36:22.239
<v Speaker 15>at the moment they are a rabbel.

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:25.040
<v Speaker 1>Very quickly before we go. Bradfield forty votes in it.

0:36:25.320 --> 0:36:28.600
<v Speaker 1>Of course in City could fall to the Tea Nicolette Buller.

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:30.839
<v Speaker 1>This will be an interesting fart on the recap well,

0:36:30.840 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 1>and it's.

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:33.719
<v Speaker 15>Another Liberal blow because Bradfield has always been held by

0:36:33.719 --> 0:36:37.160
<v Speaker 15>the Liberal Party, Paul Fletcher's longtime seat. The preferences and

0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:39.200
<v Speaker 15>I found this interesting. But every seat is going through

0:36:39.239 --> 0:36:42.359
<v Speaker 15>the final preference count this week. If it's under one

0:36:42.400 --> 0:36:45.000
<v Speaker 15>hundred votes, which it's likely to be, then there will

0:36:45.000 --> 0:36:47.360
<v Speaker 15>be an automatic recount and we won't know the result

0:36:47.560 --> 0:36:50.000
<v Speaker 15>for weeks, but at this stage nicolete Bowell is in

0:36:50.040 --> 0:36:50.359
<v Speaker 15>the lead.

0:36:50.719 --> 0:36:53.120
<v Speaker 1>James willis, thank you so much for nicking, ma'am. Coming

0:36:53.200 --> 0:36:55.640
<v Speaker 1>up after the break, be hasu kis Darma betrayed his

0:36:55.760 --> 0:36:58.719
<v Speaker 1>voters by doing an economic deal with Europe and what

0:36:58.760 --> 0:37:01.799
<v Speaker 1>will that mean for reform UK of course garning to

0:37:01.840 --> 0:37:04.440
<v Speaker 1>take over from the Tories. Brendan O'Neill will join me

0:37:04.520 --> 0:37:07.319
<v Speaker 1>later to discuss that. Plus is the end of the

0:37:07.480 --> 0:37:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Ukraine Russia war near? Well? Trump seems to think so.

0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:17.239
<v Speaker 1>Malcolm Davis will weigh in after this break. Thank you

0:37:17.280 --> 0:37:20.200
<v Speaker 1>for bearing with us through some technical difficulties. I didn't

0:37:20.239 --> 0:37:22.920
<v Speaker 1>actually go all staticy in real life, but personally I

0:37:22.960 --> 0:37:24.560
<v Speaker 1>think it's the best I've looked on TV in a

0:37:24.560 --> 0:37:27.799
<v Speaker 1>long time. It really smooths out all those cranks and crevices. Now,

0:37:27.840 --> 0:37:30.680
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has confirmed that Russia and Ukraine will start

0:37:31.000 --> 0:37:33.920
<v Speaker 1>peace negotiations. At a press conference, he said there was

0:37:33.960 --> 0:37:35.680
<v Speaker 1>a long way to go still.

0:37:36.840 --> 0:37:37.960
<v Speaker 9>Big egos involved.

0:37:37.960 --> 0:37:40.320
<v Speaker 7>I'd tell you big egos involved.

0:37:40.320 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 8>But I think something's going to happen, and if it doesn't,

0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:45.120
<v Speaker 8>I just back away and they're going to have to

0:37:45.200 --> 0:37:45.680
<v Speaker 8>keep going.

0:37:48.280 --> 0:37:50.440
<v Speaker 1>This was Russian President Vladimir Putin.

0:37:52.840 --> 0:37:54.960
<v Speaker 16>We have agreed with the President of the United States

0:37:54.960 --> 0:37:57.040
<v Speaker 16>that Russia will propose and is ready to work with

0:37:57.120 --> 0:38:00.320
<v Speaker 16>the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a possible future

0:38:00.320 --> 0:38:03.239
<v Speaker 16>peace of court, defining a number of positions such as,

0:38:03.280 --> 0:38:06.560
<v Speaker 16>for example, the principles of settlements, the timing of a

0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 16>possible peace agreement.

0:38:08.960 --> 0:38:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Malcolm Davis joins me, Now, Malcolm,

0:38:14.160 --> 0:38:15.360
<v Speaker 1>is this a breakthrough or not.

0:38:16.719 --> 0:38:19.040
<v Speaker 3>It's definitely not a breakthrough. Okay.

0:38:19.160 --> 0:38:23.480
<v Speaker 17>What we have seen here is Putin exploiting Trump, playing

0:38:23.520 --> 0:38:28.160
<v Speaker 17>Trump for a full and basically delaying once again, any

0:38:28.320 --> 0:38:30.160
<v Speaker 17>serious effort towards peace.

0:38:30.480 --> 0:38:33.040
<v Speaker 3>So he can continue the war. So there's no breakthrough here.

0:38:33.800 --> 0:38:36.239
<v Speaker 1>How long does this go on for? Right, Because they've

0:38:36.239 --> 0:38:40.000
<v Speaker 1>been going backwards and thoughts backwards and forts nothing is changing.

0:38:40.040 --> 0:38:42.719
<v Speaker 1>Trump says we have a breakthrough. Putin then sort of

0:38:42.719 --> 0:38:45.080
<v Speaker 1>walks away and goes, ah, well, you know, we'll have

0:38:45.120 --> 0:38:48.759
<v Speaker 1>some peace talks, but not really, they're not actually getting anywhere.

0:38:49.200 --> 0:38:51.160
<v Speaker 1>Does anything ever change?

0:38:52.200 --> 0:38:56.840
<v Speaker 17>Look, I think Putin's strategy is to essentially outlast Trump's

0:38:56.840 --> 0:39:01.520
<v Speaker 17>patience and resolve so that in the end goes tired

0:39:01.520 --> 0:39:05.320
<v Speaker 17>of it all and just walks away from negotiations, basically

0:39:05.400 --> 0:39:09.880
<v Speaker 17>walks away from supporting Ukraine, and that leaves Russia an

0:39:09.920 --> 0:39:13.960
<v Speaker 17>advantageous position on the battlefield that they then allow themselves

0:39:13.960 --> 0:39:17.520
<v Speaker 17>to make significant advances and ultimately achieve victory on the

0:39:17.560 --> 0:39:21.280
<v Speaker 17>battlefield Trump. So Putin sorry thinks that he can actually

0:39:21.320 --> 0:39:25.279
<v Speaker 17>win militarily, but he's counting on Trump and the Trump

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:29.360
<v Speaker 17>administration to lose interest and give up on supporting Ukraine.

0:39:29.560 --> 0:39:32.520
<v Speaker 17>That's critical for Putin's theory of victory, and I think

0:39:32.560 --> 0:39:35.600
<v Speaker 17>if we want to stop the Russians from achieving that outcome,

0:39:36.160 --> 0:39:38.920
<v Speaker 17>then the US and as allies have to continue to

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:42.320
<v Speaker 17>stick with Ukraine and continue to support them at all costs.

0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:46.040
<v Speaker 1>Trump obviously has staked a lot, and he was very

0:39:46.040 --> 0:39:49.080
<v Speaker 1>clear when he was running for president's second time around

0:39:49.120 --> 0:39:52.480
<v Speaker 1>it he wanted to achieve international peace and he made

0:39:52.520 --> 0:39:55.640
<v Speaker 1>promises about getting things done within twenty four hours. We

0:39:55.719 --> 0:39:58.040
<v Speaker 1>know that hasn't happened, and we know it hasn't been

0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:01.520
<v Speaker 1>achieved in Israel yet either, but he staked a lot

0:40:01.600 --> 0:40:04.320
<v Speaker 1>on this. So do you think he would actually walk away?

0:40:05.640 --> 0:40:06.920
<v Speaker 3>I think eventually he would.

0:40:08.200 --> 0:40:12.520
<v Speaker 17>There are forces within the Trump administration that don't want

0:40:12.560 --> 0:40:15.880
<v Speaker 17>to support Ukraine, and certainly some of the language that

0:40:15.880 --> 0:40:20.280
<v Speaker 17>Trump has used does raise questions about his genuine.

0:40:19.920 --> 0:40:21.640
<v Speaker 3>Willingness to support Ukraine.

0:40:21.880 --> 0:40:23.640
<v Speaker 17>At the end of the day, I think what Trump

0:40:23.760 --> 0:40:28.320
<v Speaker 17>sees in this situation is transactional opportunities to do a

0:40:28.400 --> 0:40:33.000
<v Speaker 17>deal with Putin that maybe disadvantages Ukraine and disadvantages Europe,

0:40:33.200 --> 0:40:36.680
<v Speaker 17>but benefits the United States and benefits Russia. And I

0:40:36.680 --> 0:40:40.240
<v Speaker 17>think that has to be the big concern because Ukraine

0:40:40.400 --> 0:40:44.320
<v Speaker 17>is merely the opening act for a wider war between

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:48.160
<v Speaker 17>Russia and Europe that is brewing in the background and

0:40:48.200 --> 0:40:51.600
<v Speaker 17>potentially some years off. And I think Putin's long term

0:40:51.640 --> 0:40:55.480
<v Speaker 17>aim is not just about Ukraine. It's about dictating the

0:40:55.600 --> 0:41:01.200
<v Speaker 17>terms of NATO's capitulation to Russia. And that Trump is

0:41:01.280 --> 0:41:05.560
<v Speaker 17>playing into Putin's trap here by essentially being ready to

0:41:05.680 --> 0:41:09.560
<v Speaker 17>walk away from the crisis rather than sticking by Ukraine

0:41:09.600 --> 0:41:12.640
<v Speaker 17>and sticking with Europe and supporting them to deter Russia

0:41:12.719 --> 0:41:15.160
<v Speaker 17>from engaging in future aggression.

0:41:15.600 --> 0:41:18.120
<v Speaker 1>Well, Putin talks about in order to end all of this,

0:41:18.280 --> 0:41:21.160
<v Speaker 1>they have to eliminate the quote unquote root causes of

0:41:21.200 --> 0:41:25.560
<v Speaker 1>the war and create a memorandum of a possible future

0:41:25.680 --> 0:41:28.239
<v Speaker 1>peace agreement, which is all a bit wishy wash. It

0:41:28.280 --> 0:41:30.800
<v Speaker 1>doesn't exactly fill you with hope. But when he says,

0:41:31.400 --> 0:41:35.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, eliminate the root causes, well, what are the

0:41:35.280 --> 0:41:37.200
<v Speaker 1>root causes that he sees?

0:41:38.040 --> 0:41:41.800
<v Speaker 17>From Putin's perspective the elimination of Ukraine as a sovereign

0:41:41.920 --> 0:41:46.320
<v Speaker 17>nation state. Essentially, what he wants is to destroy Ukraine

0:41:46.680 --> 0:41:50.560
<v Speaker 17>as a sovereign nation state, remove the Ukrainian government, impose

0:41:50.600 --> 0:41:54.120
<v Speaker 17>a Russian public government on the Ukrainian people, and enslave

0:41:54.200 --> 0:41:59.200
<v Speaker 17>the Ukrainian people under Russian occupation. That's his definition of

0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:04.120
<v Speaker 17>eliminating the root causes of the problem, because really Putin

0:42:04.160 --> 0:42:07.960
<v Speaker 17>has created the problem here. Putin invaded Ukraine first in

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:11.800
<v Speaker 17>twenty fourteen when he sees Crimea with the Little Green Men,

0:42:12.040 --> 0:42:14.360
<v Speaker 17>and then in twenty twenty two with the main invasion

0:42:14.400 --> 0:42:17.120
<v Speaker 17>that is still underway today. What he wants to do

0:42:17.200 --> 0:42:22.040
<v Speaker 17>initially is capture those four territories that he partially controls

0:42:22.080 --> 0:42:24.799
<v Speaker 17>at the moment, but capture the men entirety, and then

0:42:24.880 --> 0:42:29.440
<v Speaker 17>expand his control across Ukraine itself to ultimately take Kiev.

0:42:29.880 --> 0:42:34.200
<v Speaker 17>And I think that there's no intention whatsoever on Putin's

0:42:34.239 --> 0:42:36.440
<v Speaker 17>part to seek a justin fair peace.

0:42:37.120 --> 0:42:40.040
<v Speaker 1>You talk about Putin feeling like he could win this

0:42:40.160 --> 0:42:43.800
<v Speaker 1>war militarily. Obviously, to this point that hasn't been possible

0:42:44.120 --> 0:42:48.120
<v Speaker 1>because Ukraine has been continually armed to fight them off.

0:42:48.680 --> 0:42:49.279
<v Speaker 9>But we know.

0:42:49.320 --> 0:42:54.200
<v Speaker 1>About the relationship, the building relationship between China and Russia.

0:42:54.640 --> 0:42:58.400
<v Speaker 1>How real is the concern that China could get involved

0:42:58.400 --> 0:42:59.080
<v Speaker 1>in conflict.

0:43:00.160 --> 0:43:02.680
<v Speaker 17>Well, look, there's already been some suggestion that there are

0:43:02.800 --> 0:43:08.280
<v Speaker 17>Chinese troops involved in the fighting as volunteers, and maybe

0:43:08.560 --> 0:43:12.480
<v Speaker 17>the PLA has actually dispatched observers to the rare areas

0:43:12.520 --> 0:43:16.160
<v Speaker 17>to watch how the Russians carry out operations and learn

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:19.360
<v Speaker 17>from that. I think the Chinese government has already involved

0:43:19.360 --> 0:43:23.719
<v Speaker 17>to a degree in terms of supplying militarily relevant technologies

0:43:23.760 --> 0:43:27.720
<v Speaker 17>to Russia that allow them to develop new military capabilities.

0:43:28.080 --> 0:43:32.120
<v Speaker 17>At a strategic level, China is also assisting Russia to

0:43:32.280 --> 0:43:35.600
<v Speaker 17>circumvent sanctions imposed by the West. It's one of the

0:43:35.640 --> 0:43:39.880
<v Speaker 17>reasons why the sanctions that have been laid against Russia

0:43:39.920 --> 0:43:43.520
<v Speaker 17>haven't been that effective. That's allowed Russia to reorient its

0:43:43.560 --> 0:43:46.920
<v Speaker 17>economy into a wartime mode and thus, as a result,

0:43:47.000 --> 0:43:50.920
<v Speaker 17>being a much better position to sustain the Ukraine.

0:43:50.560 --> 0:43:53.640
<v Speaker 3>War effort and build up for a wider war against NATO.

0:43:54.160 --> 0:43:56.520
<v Speaker 17>So I do think that China is involved in this

0:43:56.960 --> 0:44:00.480
<v Speaker 17>across different levels, but in terms of an actual direct

0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:03.200
<v Speaker 17>combat role on a large scale, I think we're probably

0:44:03.280 --> 0:44:04.040
<v Speaker 17>not there yet.

0:44:04.400 --> 0:44:06.200
<v Speaker 1>I want to return to the news yesterday that the

0:44:06.239 --> 0:44:08.920
<v Speaker 1>European Union and our keen to strike a new defense

0:44:09.000 --> 0:44:14.319
<v Speaker 1>deal with Australia. Obviously, Anthony ALBINIZI going over to meet

0:44:14.400 --> 0:44:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the Pope, has had these discussions with Ursula von de

0:44:17.440 --> 0:44:20.000
<v Speaker 1>Lay and she seems keen to do something. They've done

0:44:20.040 --> 0:44:23.239
<v Speaker 1>a few deals like this of late. What would you

0:44:23.600 --> 0:44:24.719
<v Speaker 1>be expecting of us?

0:44:25.960 --> 0:44:29.600
<v Speaker 17>Look, I think that this is a mutually beneficial opportunity.

0:44:30.280 --> 0:44:34.600
<v Speaker 17>From Europe's perspective. They want to maintain influence in the

0:44:34.600 --> 0:44:38.239
<v Speaker 17>Indo Pacific because they don't just face an aggressive expansion

0:44:38.239 --> 0:44:41.440
<v Speaker 17>as Russia. They also face a rising China that is

0:44:41.480 --> 0:44:46.080
<v Speaker 17>backing Russia but also seeking to impose its own interests

0:44:46.120 --> 0:44:49.960
<v Speaker 17>on European security, and so having allies and partners in

0:44:49.960 --> 0:44:53.440
<v Speaker 17>the Indo Pacific makes eminent sense for Brussels in the

0:44:53.480 --> 0:44:56.799
<v Speaker 17>sense that they can then have greater ability to work

0:44:56.840 --> 0:44:59.600
<v Speaker 17>with the likes of Australia or New Zealand or Japan

0:44:59.680 --> 0:45:03.800
<v Speaker 17>or other to actually deter and counter China and prevent

0:45:03.880 --> 0:45:07.399
<v Speaker 17>them from imposing its will on Europe. And certainly from

0:45:07.400 --> 0:45:10.200
<v Speaker 17>our perspective, we could gain a lot by having a

0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:13.640
<v Speaker 17>stronger relationship with Europe as well in terms of defense,

0:45:13.760 --> 0:45:16.880
<v Speaker 17>industry cooperation and capability development.

0:45:16.960 --> 0:45:18.759
<v Speaker 1>Well, I was going to say just quickly, Michael, I mean,

0:45:18.960 --> 0:45:21.520
<v Speaker 1>we need it as much as they do, right because

0:45:21.680 --> 0:45:24.680
<v Speaker 1>we can't counter China in the Pacific on our own either.

0:45:25.719 --> 0:45:26.200
<v Speaker 3>We can't.

0:45:26.280 --> 0:45:29.440
<v Speaker 17>I mean, obviously, we still have a vital and important

0:45:29.440 --> 0:45:32.759
<v Speaker 17>strategic alliance with the United States. I don't see that

0:45:32.800 --> 0:45:37.000
<v Speaker 17>going away, irrespective of concerns about President Trump. But in

0:45:37.040 --> 0:45:41.360
<v Speaker 17>this strategic environment of essentially being in a pre war period,

0:45:41.960 --> 0:45:44.200
<v Speaker 17>you can never have too many friends, and so I

0:45:44.239 --> 0:45:47.200
<v Speaker 17>think it makes sense for us to pursue this closer

0:45:47.239 --> 0:45:50.800
<v Speaker 17>defense relationship with Europe as well as strengthening our relationship

0:45:50.840 --> 0:45:51.760
<v Speaker 17>with the United States.

0:45:52.040 --> 0:45:55.239
<v Speaker 1>Malcolm Davis, thank you so much for your time. As always. Now, look,

0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:57.480
<v Speaker 1>obviously we spent a lot of time talking about what's

0:45:57.480 --> 0:46:00.400
<v Speaker 1>happening in Australian politics, and there's certainly been plenty to

0:46:00.440 --> 0:46:02.680
<v Speaker 1>talk about today. But let's have a look over the

0:46:02.760 --> 0:46:05.680
<v Speaker 1>ditch for a moment. There's a documentary being released in

0:46:05.719 --> 0:46:08.840
<v Speaker 1>the US next month called Prime Minister. It's about Cinder

0:46:08.960 --> 0:46:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Ardune's time as peame of New Zealand and it's largely

0:46:11.960 --> 0:46:15.080
<v Speaker 1>based on videos her husband took while she was in

0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the job. Now it premiated at the Sundance Film Festival

0:46:18.560 --> 0:46:21.680
<v Speaker 1>in January, it's about to be released publicly. Take a

0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:22.720
<v Speaker 1>look at some of the trailer.

0:46:25.960 --> 0:46:29.560
<v Speaker 6>I was fourteen years old when someone first used the term.

0:46:29.400 --> 0:46:32.800
<v Speaker 7>Imposter syndrome, and it was just like something clipped. It

0:46:32.920 --> 0:46:34.680
<v Speaker 7>just had a bit of a fear that I shouldn't

0:46:34.680 --> 0:46:35.000
<v Speaker 7>be there.

0:46:38.840 --> 0:46:40.800
<v Speaker 18>It's hard to switch on the news some days and

0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:42.839
<v Speaker 18>just think the world is a dumpster fire.

0:46:44.080 --> 0:46:45.920
<v Speaker 7>How do we shine a light on the humanity?

0:46:46.040 --> 0:46:47.239
<v Speaker 9>I know it's simbair.

0:46:51.440 --> 0:46:56.680
<v Speaker 18>You can be anxious, sensitive kind, you can be a mother,

0:46:56.800 --> 0:47:02.400
<v Speaker 18>a nerd, a crier, you can be all pass and

0:47:02.520 --> 0:47:05.000
<v Speaker 18>literally just like me.

0:47:09.040 --> 0:47:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Oh, isn't it just so touching? And you can see

0:47:12.160 --> 0:47:14.839
<v Speaker 1>that the Sydney Film Festival coming up too. I really

0:47:14.920 --> 0:47:18.719
<v Speaker 1>don't understand the international fating of Ardun, particularly given her

0:47:18.760 --> 0:47:22.600
<v Speaker 1>approval rating was twenty nine percent after five years as PM.

0:47:22.760 --> 0:47:25.560
<v Speaker 1>She wasn't the Messiah at home like she seemed to

0:47:25.560 --> 0:47:28.040
<v Speaker 1>be overseas now. This thing has a rating of ninety

0:47:28.080 --> 0:47:31.080
<v Speaker 1>four percent on Rotten Tomatoes from film critics. I don't

0:47:31.120 --> 0:47:33.719
<v Speaker 1>know about you. It seems pretty insufferable to me. But

0:47:33.840 --> 0:47:37.080
<v Speaker 1>something a bit better from Kiwee politics though. He's Deputy

0:47:37.080 --> 0:47:40.440
<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister Winston Peters taking on a heckler this morning.

0:47:41.480 --> 0:47:44.400
<v Speaker 3>Why don't you nap off? Look at you?

0:47:45.480 --> 0:47:48.919
<v Speaker 1>Years old now wants to see you.

0:47:48.840 --> 0:47:52.320
<v Speaker 3>You look, you look mate?

0:47:53.400 --> 0:47:56.520
<v Speaker 1>Jong getting out of here, get out good last and

0:47:56.600 --> 0:47:59.480
<v Speaker 1>don't bloody get last leave? You're married?

0:47:59.840 --> 0:48:05.680
<v Speaker 7>You many Yeah, you're feeling Marina well that men here

0:48:05.680 --> 0:48:07.840
<v Speaker 7>if you want to okay, thanks guys.

0:48:10.000 --> 0:48:11.040
<v Speaker 3>Ah do you swear as well?

0:48:11.080 --> 0:48:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Mate? I mean, why can't we get a bit more

0:48:14.600 --> 0:48:17.759
<v Speaker 1>of that? Winston Peters is eighty, as it's noted in

0:48:17.800 --> 0:48:20.480
<v Speaker 1>that video, and he's still got plenty of fire in

0:48:20.560 --> 0:48:22.640
<v Speaker 1>the belly. I know someone who wouldn't take a heckler

0:48:22.719 --> 0:48:24.759
<v Speaker 1>lying down, someone who does have a lot of fire

0:48:24.760 --> 0:48:27.080
<v Speaker 1>in the belly, and that is, of course, Paul Murray.

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<v Speaker 1>Here is