WEBVTT - Labor’s by-election bloodbath

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristin Amiot.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, February tenth. The Federal government has committed to

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<v Speaker 1>keeping twenty thousand public servants on the payroll, but a

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<v Speaker 1>new analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office suggests that will

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<v Speaker 1>leave an eleven billion dollar sized hole in the budget.

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<v Speaker 1>Now the opposition wants Labor to show its working. That

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<v Speaker 1>exclusive story is live right now at the Australian dot

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<v Speaker 1>com dot au. The estranged husband of missing Lennox Head

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<v Speaker 1>mother Bronwyn Winfield, is trying to sell his home and

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<v Speaker 1>it's got her brother worried he's about to skip the country.

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<v Speaker 1>Andy Reid raised his concerns in a letter to the

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<v Speaker 1>New South Wales State Coroner, Teresa O'Sullivan in December. John

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<v Speaker 1>Winfield denies any wrongdoing. Rising crime and the crippling cost

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<v Speaker 1>of living have dealt Victorian labor a potentially devastating blow.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a situation the federal government and the opposition are

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<v Speaker 1>watching closely as an election looms. That's today's episode. When

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<v Speaker 1>The Australian's Victorian editor, Damon Johnston called up the state's

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<v Speaker 1>Electoral Commission to inquire about the status of the vote

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<v Speaker 1>count in the Werribe by election on Sunday. He was

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<v Speaker 1>told counting will resume at nine am on Monday morning.

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<v Speaker 1>For Victorian Labor, it was a prolonging of the agony.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a bloodbath for the Victorian Labor Party in

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<v Speaker 2>their once heartland seat of Werriby.

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<v Speaker 3>It was a very dirty Saturday night.

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<v Speaker 2>Now that doesn't mean they're going to lose the seat,

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<v Speaker 2>but what it does mean is that they've suffered a

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<v Speaker 2>double digit swing, probably between ten an eleven percent on

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<v Speaker 2>a two party preferred basis, and that has taken a

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<v Speaker 2>seat that they've held since nineteen seventy nine.

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<v Speaker 3>They've never lost it to the brink of defeat.

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<v Speaker 1>Residents of Werribe, in Melbourne's outer western suburbs, cast their

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<v Speaker 1>votes on Saturday in a by election triggered by the

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<v Speaker 1>resignation of long standing Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallace in December.

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<v Speaker 1>It's one of the fastest growing local government areas in

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<v Speaker 1>the country and voters didn't miss their opportunity to send

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<v Speaker 1>it the Victorian Labor government, headed up by Premier just

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<v Speaker 1>Into Allen, a message.

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<v Speaker 2>This has happened because the voters in Weerribee, Labor voters

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<v Speaker 2>in the main have felt neglected and it taps into

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<v Speaker 2>that broader sense of discontent in Labour's heartland electorate for

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<v Speaker 2>the government. They feel the crimes out of control, the

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<v Speaker 2>cost of living, local roads or a problem, and they

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<v Speaker 2>brought the baseball bats out on Saturday night and gave

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<v Speaker 2>the Labor government a real whack.

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<v Speaker 1>When counting paused on Saturday night, the Werribee race was

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<v Speaker 1>on a knife's edge as the parties more than ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent lead deteriorated just center. Allen told party faithfuls it

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<v Speaker 1>was too close to call. The state opposition isn't getting

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of itself either.

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<v Speaker 3>Now. The Liberals still believe that the seat is not theirs.

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<v Speaker 2>They are concerned that they might fall just short as

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<v Speaker 2>at Sunday lunchtime. There is no counting Sunday afternoon, but

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<v Speaker 2>they believe they may fall a couple of hundred votes short.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it's important to note that the voters didn't necessarily

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<v Speaker 2>jump to the Liberals in Werribee. While the Liberal vote

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<v Speaker 2>did increase by a few percentage points, most of the

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<v Speaker 2>disaffected Labor voters went to independence, and those preferences are

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<v Speaker 2>now flowing to the Liberals in part hence the line

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<v Speaker 2>ball down to the wire position the electorate is in.

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<v Speaker 1>Damon. Jacinta Allen has taken up the Victorian premiership not

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<v Speaker 1>only after Dan Andrews's long tenure, but after more than

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<v Speaker 1>two decades of Labor leadership. There's a state election coming

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<v Speaker 1>up in twenty twenty six. What does this swing against

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<v Speaker 1>labor in Werribee mean for her as premier end for

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<v Speaker 1>her government?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think inevitably the backlash against labor has to

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<v Speaker 2>be interpreted as a backlash against Jacinta Allen.

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<v Speaker 3>She's the leader. She conceded today that she has to

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<v Speaker 3>take responsibility for the result. She's also conceded that her

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<v Speaker 3>government needs to.

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<v Speaker 2>Listen more and do more on issues like crime and

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<v Speaker 2>cost of living.

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<v Speaker 4>By elections are an opportunity for communities to send a

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<v Speaker 4>MESSI and to make sure their voice is being heard.

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<v Speaker 4>And what comes with the privilege of being in a

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<v Speaker 4>labor government is the opportunity to support what you're being

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<v Speaker 4>told by working people and families.

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<v Speaker 2>She's now been in office as leader for over a

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<v Speaker 2>year and this is the first time voters have had

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<v Speaker 2>a chance to really pass judgment on her and it

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<v Speaker 2>was damning. In my view, this will inevitably spark some

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<v Speaker 2>internal reflections within the alp And caucus about whether she

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<v Speaker 2>is the right person to lead the party into the

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six election. I don't think there will be

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<v Speaker 2>any immediate move on Allen. However, if there was another

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<v Speaker 2>by election in the next six months that also went

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<v Speaker 2>as badly as this one in a key Labor seat,

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<v Speaker 2>then I think some tensions might come to the surface.

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<v Speaker 1>Victorian Labor has been protected for decades by US so

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<v Speaker 1>called red wall in the outer western suburbs. Their seats

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<v Speaker 1>like Werribee that until Saturday have been safely held by

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<v Speaker 1>Victorian Labor through election cycle after election cycle. But as

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<v Speaker 1>the tide turns against Labor governments around the country, that

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<v Speaker 1>era could be coming to a close.

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<v Speaker 2>Labour's Red Wall at both the state and federal level,

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<v Speaker 2>has been under siege now for some years. However, this

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<v Speaker 2>is the first time it's been really penetrated. It's fair

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<v Speaker 2>to say that Labour's wall is crumbling as we speak.

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<v Speaker 2>Labor strategist and polster Cosimaris has described it as more

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<v Speaker 2>of a barbed wire red fence and says that the

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<v Speaker 2>mood is on for Labor voters to vote against the ALP.

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<v Speaker 2>What's happened in Werribee is quite historic. Even if they

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<v Speaker 2>hold the seat, they have made their intentions known and

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<v Speaker 2>I think any Labor in P who holds a once

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<v Speaker 2>safe seat at either a state or federal level should

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<v Speaker 2>now consider their electorates to be marginal.

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<v Speaker 3>In the West of Melbourne, at the.

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<v Speaker 1>Same time Werriby locals were casting their votes, a by

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<v Speaker 1>election was also happening in the inner city suburb of Pran.

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<v Speaker 1>That vote was triggered by the resignation of MP Sam

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<v Speaker 1>Hibbins from the Victorian Greens in twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 5>The Victorian Greens have been rocked by a sex scandal

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<v Speaker 5>that's forced a married MP to step down. Deputy leader

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<v Speaker 5>Sam Hibbins breached party room rules by having an affair

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<v Speaker 5>with one of his staffers.

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<v Speaker 1>By lunchtime on Sunday, Victorian Green's leader Ellen Sandel conceded

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<v Speaker 1>her party couldn't win this one. I think in the

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<v Speaker 1>federal election and the state election next year, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to see really positive results and we're going to win

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<v Speaker 1>this seat back based on the numbers that are simply

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<v Speaker 1>in front of us New opposition leader Brad Batton, who

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<v Speaker 1>was installed following a rocky couple of months for the

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<v Speaker 1>Victorian Libs, said the election of Rachel west Away was

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<v Speaker 1>a boon for the party.

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<v Speaker 2>But here in Peran, we are very proud to declare

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<v Speaker 2>that we can claim victory in a seat that many

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<v Speaker 2>didn't think was possible just three or four weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Labour didn't contest the prime by election, but Damon reckons

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<v Speaker 1>the result there could be a sign of things to

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<v Speaker 1>come at the federal level.

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<v Speaker 3>Clearly the Liberals are back in town.

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<v Speaker 2>Peter Dutton has pegged the outer suburban voters to be

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<v Speaker 2>his target audience.

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<v Speaker 3>For the next federal election.

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<v Speaker 2>He'll be looking at this and thinking, on one level

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<v Speaker 2>it's positive, clearly there's dissatisfaction with Labor. But if he's

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<v Speaker 2>honest with himself, he'll be thinking the Liberal Party have

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<v Speaker 2>still got a lot of work to do to ensure

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<v Speaker 2>that those angry Labor voters actually support the Liberal.

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<v Speaker 1>Party coming up. What a turning of the tide in

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<v Speaker 1>Werriby means the federal government. Greg Brown is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the Australian senior federal politics specialists. He ring around Parliament

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<v Speaker 1>to find out how members of both the major parties

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<v Speaker 1>are feeling about Werriby on Sunday.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, it's to be expected. It's been played down by

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<v Speaker 6>labor circles and being played up in liberal circles. That's politics.

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<v Speaker 6>What has been interesting is there are concerns within labor

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<v Speaker 6>MPs about how the labor brand is faring in Victoria.

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<v Speaker 6>And what they're concerned is that people in these kind

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<v Speaker 6>of working class areas, the outer suburbs, are feeling abandoned,

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<v Speaker 6>particularly by the state government. But what they're worried about

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<v Speaker 6>is while a lot of the damage has been done

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<v Speaker 6>by the state government, their view is that people just

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<v Speaker 6>want to blame labor of all persuasions, and they're worried

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<v Speaker 6>this could hurt them at a federal level. One thing

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<v Speaker 6>that an MP said that is really concerning is while

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<v Speaker 6>constituents know that crime is fundamentally a state issue, they're

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<v Speaker 6>just so angry with labor that they're raising it with

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<v Speaker 6>federal MPs quite a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, something that we saw in Weerribee was that this

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't an and hasn't been yet, an out and out

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<v Speaker 1>victory for the Liberals, and in fact, the votes that

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<v Speaker 1>were lost by Labor appear to have at least in

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<v Speaker 1>part gone to independence. So do you think we could

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<v Speaker 1>see a similar trend at the federal election.

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<v Speaker 6>That would be worried for the Liberal Party if that

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<v Speaker 6>took place, they'd really be wanting those votes themselves. And

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<v Speaker 6>that's something that Labor and PAS have raised as when

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<v Speaker 6>they say that people that are on the side of

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<v Speaker 6>nothing to see here the votes and go to the Liberals.

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<v Speaker 6>And the other thing they're saying is that this was

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<v Speaker 6>really a referendum on the state government without another choice really,

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<v Speaker 6>whereas they're saying that the federal election is different because

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<v Speaker 6>you're not just sending a message to Anthony Albanesi, you're

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<v Speaker 6>making a decision between Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton. It's

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<v Speaker 6>also been pointed out that by elections can be an

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<v Speaker 6>unreliable predictor. Before the twenty nineteen election, Bill Shorten had

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<v Speaker 6>some very significant by election wins in the seats of

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<v Speaker 6>Longman and Bradden, and then he went on to lose

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<v Speaker 6>both of those seats in the next federal election and

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<v Speaker 6>he obviously lost the election. So there are people within

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<v Speaker 6>labor circles saying that there shouldn't be too much to

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<v Speaker 6>be read into this, but in the liberal camp and

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<v Speaker 6>some in the labor camp as well, they believe that

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<v Speaker 6>it shows that the labor brand is on the nose

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<v Speaker 6>and that crime. While it's usually a state issue, I

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<v Speaker 6>think the Lips are really going to try and turn

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<v Speaker 6>this into a federal issue as much as possible.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Brown is a federal political specialist with The Australian

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<v Speaker 1>and Damon Johnston is our Victorian editor. You can read

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<v Speaker 1>all their reporting and analysis of the fallout from the

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<v Speaker 1>Werriby and Prime by elections right now at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au