1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristin Amiot. 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: It's Monday, February tenth. The Federal government has committed to 3 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: keeping twenty thousand public servants on the payroll, but a 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 1: new analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office suggests that will 5 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: leave an eleven billion dollar sized hole in the budget. 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: Now the opposition wants Labor to show its working. That 7 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: exclusive story is live right now at the Australian dot 8 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: com dot au. The estranged husband of missing Lennox Head 9 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: mother Bronwyn Winfield, is trying to sell his home and 10 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 1: it's got her brother worried he's about to skip the country. 11 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: Andy Reid raised his concerns in a letter to the 12 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: New South Wales State Coroner, Teresa O'Sullivan in December. John 13 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: Winfield denies any wrongdoing. Rising crime and the crippling cost 14 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: of living have dealt Victorian labor a potentially devastating blow. 15 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: It's a situation the federal government and the opposition are 16 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: watching closely as an election looms. That's today's episode. When 17 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: The Australian's Victorian editor, Damon Johnston called up the state's 18 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: Electoral Commission to inquire about the status of the vote 19 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: count in the Werribe by election on Sunday. He was 20 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 1: told counting will resume at nine am on Monday morning. 21 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: For Victorian Labor, it was a prolonging of the agony. 22 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 2: It's been a bloodbath for the Victorian Labor Party in 23 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: their once heartland seat of Werriby. 24 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 3: It was a very dirty Saturday night. 25 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean they're going to lose the seat, 26 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 2: but what it does mean is that they've suffered a 27 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: double digit swing, probably between ten an eleven percent on 28 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 2: a two party preferred basis, and that has taken a 29 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: seat that they've held since nineteen seventy nine. 30 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 3: They've never lost it to the brink of defeat. 31 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: Residents of Werribe, in Melbourne's outer western suburbs, cast their 32 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: votes on Saturday in a by election triggered by the 33 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: resignation of long standing Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallace in December. 34 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: It's one of the fastest growing local government areas in 35 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,119 Speaker 1: the country and voters didn't miss their opportunity to send 36 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,239 Speaker 1: it the Victorian Labor government, headed up by Premier just 37 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 1: Into Allen, a message. 38 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 2: This has happened because the voters in Weerribee, Labor voters 39 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 2: in the main have felt neglected and it taps into 40 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 2: that broader sense of discontent in Labour's heartland electorate for 41 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 2: the government. They feel the crimes out of control, the 42 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 2: cost of living, local roads or a problem, and they 43 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 2: brought the baseball bats out on Saturday night and gave 44 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: the Labor government a real whack. 45 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: When counting paused on Saturday night, the Werribee race was 46 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: on a knife's edge as the parties more than ten 47 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: percent lead deteriorated just center. Allen told party faithfuls it 48 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: was too close to call. The state opposition isn't getting 49 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: ahead of itself either. 50 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 3: Now. The Liberals still believe that the seat is not theirs. 51 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 2: They are concerned that they might fall just short as 52 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 2: at Sunday lunchtime. There is no counting Sunday afternoon, but 53 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: they believe they may fall a couple of hundred votes short. 54 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 2: Now it's important to note that the voters didn't necessarily 55 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 2: jump to the Liberals in Werribee. While the Liberal vote 56 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: did increase by a few percentage points, most of the 57 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 2: disaffected Labor voters went to independence, and those preferences are 58 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: now flowing to the Liberals in part hence the line 59 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 2: ball down to the wire position the electorate is in. 60 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: Damon. Jacinta Allen has taken up the Victorian premiership not 61 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: only after Dan Andrews's long tenure, but after more than 62 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: two decades of Labor leadership. There's a state election coming 63 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: up in twenty twenty six. What does this swing against 64 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: labor in Werribee mean for her as premier end for 65 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: her government? 66 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 2: Do you think inevitably the backlash against labor has to 67 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 2: be interpreted as a backlash against Jacinta Allen. 68 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 3: She's the leader. She conceded today that she has to 69 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 3: take responsibility for the result. She's also conceded that her 70 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 3: government needs to. 71 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 2: Listen more and do more on issues like crime and 72 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 2: cost of living. 73 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 4: By elections are an opportunity for communities to send a 74 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 4: MESSI and to make sure their voice is being heard. 75 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 4: And what comes with the privilege of being in a 76 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 4: labor government is the opportunity to support what you're being 77 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 4: told by working people and families. 78 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 2: She's now been in office as leader for over a 79 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 2: year and this is the first time voters have had 80 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 2: a chance to really pass judgment on her and it 81 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: was damning. In my view, this will inevitably spark some 82 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 2: internal reflections within the alp And caucus about whether she 83 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 2: is the right person to lead the party into the 84 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six election. I don't think there will be 85 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: any immediate move on Allen. However, if there was another 86 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 2: by election in the next six months that also went 87 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: as badly as this one in a key Labor seat, 88 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: then I think some tensions might come to the surface. 89 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: Victorian Labor has been protected for decades by US so 90 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 1: called red wall in the outer western suburbs. Their seats 91 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: like Werribee that until Saturday have been safely held by 92 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: Victorian Labor through election cycle after election cycle. But as 93 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: the tide turns against Labor governments around the country, that 94 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: era could be coming to a close. 95 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 2: Labour's Red Wall at both the state and federal level, 96 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 2: has been under siege now for some years. However, this 97 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: is the first time it's been really penetrated. It's fair 98 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 2: to say that Labour's wall is crumbling as we speak. 99 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 2: Labor strategist and polster Cosimaris has described it as more 100 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 2: of a barbed wire red fence and says that the 101 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 2: mood is on for Labor voters to vote against the ALP. 102 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 2: What's happened in Werribee is quite historic. Even if they 103 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 2: hold the seat, they have made their intentions known and 104 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 2: I think any Labor in P who holds a once 105 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 2: safe seat at either a state or federal level should 106 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,799 Speaker 2: now consider their electorates to be marginal. 107 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 3: In the West of Melbourne, at the. 108 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: Same time Werriby locals were casting their votes, a by 109 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: election was also happening in the inner city suburb of Pran. 110 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: That vote was triggered by the resignation of MP Sam 111 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: Hibbins from the Victorian Greens in twenty twenty four. 112 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 5: The Victorian Greens have been rocked by a sex scandal 113 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 5: that's forced a married MP to step down. Deputy leader 114 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 5: Sam Hibbins breached party room rules by having an affair 115 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 5: with one of his staffers. 116 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: By lunchtime on Sunday, Victorian Green's leader Ellen Sandel conceded 117 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: her party couldn't win this one. I think in the 118 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: federal election and the state election next year, we're going 119 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: to see really positive results and we're going to win 120 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: this seat back based on the numbers that are simply 121 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: in front of us New opposition leader Brad Batton, who 122 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: was installed following a rocky couple of months for the 123 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: Victorian Libs, said the election of Rachel west Away was 124 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: a boon for the party. 125 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 2: But here in Peran, we are very proud to declare 126 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 2: that we can claim victory in a seat that many 127 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: didn't think was possible just three or four weeks ago. 128 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: Labour didn't contest the prime by election, but Damon reckons 129 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: the result there could be a sign of things to 130 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: come at the federal level. 131 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 3: Clearly the Liberals are back in town. 132 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 2: Peter Dutton has pegged the outer suburban voters to be 133 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: his target audience. 134 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 3: For the next federal election. 135 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: He'll be looking at this and thinking, on one level 136 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 2: it's positive, clearly there's dissatisfaction with Labor. But if he's 137 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: honest with himself, he'll be thinking the Liberal Party have 138 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,079 Speaker 2: still got a lot of work to do to ensure 139 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: that those angry Labor voters actually support the Liberal. 140 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: Party coming up. What a turning of the tide in 141 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 1: Werriby means the federal government. Greg Brown is one of 142 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: the Australian senior federal politics specialists. He ring around Parliament 143 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: to find out how members of both the major parties 144 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: are feeling about Werriby on Sunday. 145 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 6: Well, it's to be expected. It's been played down by 146 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 6: labor circles and being played up in liberal circles. That's politics. 147 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 6: What has been interesting is there are concerns within labor 148 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 6: MPs about how the labor brand is faring in Victoria. 149 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 6: And what they're concerned is that people in these kind 150 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 6: of working class areas, the outer suburbs, are feeling abandoned, 151 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 6: particularly by the state government. But what they're worried about 152 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 6: is while a lot of the damage has been done 153 00:09:55,800 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 6: by the state government, their view is that people just 154 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 6: want to blame labor of all persuasions, and they're worried 155 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 6: this could hurt them at a federal level. One thing 156 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 6: that an MP said that is really concerning is while 157 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 6: constituents know that crime is fundamentally a state issue, they're 158 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 6: just so angry with labor that they're raising it with 159 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 6: federal MPs quite a lot. 160 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:29,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, something that we saw in Weerribee was that this 161 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: wasn't an and hasn't been yet, an out and out 162 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: victory for the Liberals, and in fact, the votes that 163 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: were lost by Labor appear to have at least in 164 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: part gone to independence. So do you think we could 165 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: see a similar trend at the federal election. 166 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 6: That would be worried for the Liberal Party if that 167 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 6: took place, they'd really be wanting those votes themselves. And 168 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 6: that's something that Labor and PAS have raised as when 169 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 6: they say that people that are on the side of 170 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,239 Speaker 6: nothing to see here the votes and go to the Liberals. 171 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 6: And the other thing they're saying is that this was 172 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 6: really a referendum on the state government without another choice really, 173 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 6: whereas they're saying that the federal election is different because 174 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 6: you're not just sending a message to Anthony Albanesi, you're 175 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 6: making a decision between Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton. It's 176 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 6: also been pointed out that by elections can be an 177 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 6: unreliable predictor. Before the twenty nineteen election, Bill Shorten had 178 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 6: some very significant by election wins in the seats of 179 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 6: Longman and Bradden, and then he went on to lose 180 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 6: both of those seats in the next federal election and 181 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 6: he obviously lost the election. So there are people within 182 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 6: labor circles saying that there shouldn't be too much to 183 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 6: be read into this, but in the liberal camp and 184 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 6: some in the labor camp as well, they believe that 185 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 6: it shows that the labor brand is on the nose 186 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 6: and that crime. While it's usually a state issue, I 187 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 6: think the Lips are really going to try and turn 188 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 6: this into a federal issue as much as possible. 189 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: Greg Brown is a federal political specialist with The Australian 190 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: and Damon Johnston is our Victorian editor. You can read 191 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: all their reporting and analysis of the fallout from the 192 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 1: Werriby and Prime by elections right now at the Australian 193 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 1: dot com dot au