WEBVTT - It’s a tough time to be Jim Chalmers 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:08.400 I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven Am. For months, 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:10.680 Jim Charmers has been trying to write a budget about 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:15.720 the future productivity reform repair. But events have a way 0:00:15.760 --> 0:00:18.640 of dragging budgets back to the present, and right now 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.639 the present looks expensive. People are still under pressure, the 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.279 economy has been hit by another oil shock, and the 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:27.720 Treasurer is trying to make the case for a restraint 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:30.680 without looking like he's asking the strangers to wear even 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:34.080 more pain. So will Jim Charmer's upcoming budget be one 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.080 of reform or crisis management? 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:36.960 Today? 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:40.519 Senior economics correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald, 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:48.479 Shanewright and what kind of budget this moment? Demand's It's Saturday, 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:58.000 April fourth, Shane. Great to have you on seven am. 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:01.040 Let's start with the basic picture. Rates are back up 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.360 at four point one percent, inflation is still above target, 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:06.640 and we're at the start of a global oil shot. 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:10.480 So with the budget not far off, how tough is 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:12.040 the Treasurer's job looking right now? 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:12.760 Oh? 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:17.160 I think what did Fredistaire say that Ginger Rogers was 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.080 a better dancer than him because she had to do 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:23.400 everything he did? But do it backwards. We're almost in 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:27.400 that situation given what you've just laid out, And if 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.480 anyone can tell tell you honestly what's going to come 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.919 out of the White House in the next few hours, 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:35.320 in the next few days, well look I'll take money 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:39.800 against that. So that's the key problem for him at 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:44.080 the moment is just absolute global uncertainty and how that 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.880 feeds into such key things as like the price of 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:50.240 petrol and just general economic activity across the globe. 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:52.600 Our trading partners and domestically. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:56.280 We will make hard in this main and our task 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:05.800 there is not just to respond to these shocks. 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:03.280 To see through. 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.760 Jim Chalmers said this budget will involve heavy lifting, difficult 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:11.799 decisions and another round of savings. But he's also arguing 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:15.680 public spending wasn't what drove the latest inflation problem. So 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:19.919 when he talks about difficult decisions, what does he actually mean. 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:22.880 Well, this has been one of the great issues of 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:27.200 the last twenty or so years. When John Howard introduced 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:30.760 the GST all those years ago in two thousand, he 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:32.919 made clear that his plan was to make sure that 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:36.320 we're no one was worse off, everyone was a winner. 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:36.720 Baby. 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:41.440 That's Okay, However, you can't keep doing that, and successive 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.800 governments have actually tried to put off making hard decisions 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.000 that leave people off, or when they've done tough stuff, 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:52.800 they've actually backtracks. Wayne Swann and Joe Hockey both had 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.560 to go some tough stuff and neither of those things 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:56.040 came through. 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.960 Joe Hockey's Contribute and Build budget could also be labeled 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.600 no pain, no gain budget. It will tighten the belts 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:07.720 of most Australians with cuts to family benefits, tighter rules 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.440 for payments for the unemployed and those with a disability 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:14.359 Minister headlines like Swan pickpockets families and a welfare blitz 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:15.600 on disability pensioners. 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.520 Did you expect this sort of reaction to what you 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.240 say is a labor budget. Oh, this is a labor budget. 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.800 It's a budget focused on jobs, creating. 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.000 Job that's the history. We know that there will be 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:25.680 spending cuts. 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:30.359 Even on Wednesday afternoon he's been talking about, Yes, there 0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:33.400 will be more spending cuts. The spending cuts that they've 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:37.960 announced in the previous budgets haven't really caused much discomfort 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.640 for anyone, so that's a low bar how he can 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.640 get over that. We will have to see. But while 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:50.680 Charmer says, look, inflation is not being driven by public spending, 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.440 it ain't helping in any way. You could not argue 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.200 that case with a straight face. And then you've got, 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:02.400 as you've mentioned, the urgent petrol prices that we've seen 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.000 the last four weeks. That just makes it even more 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:09.920 of an imperative defined savings even if they do pinch people. 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.960 I mean, if his argument is that inflation wasn't driven 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:18.520 up by public spending, is it a mistake to think 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:20.880 that the answer then is simply whinding back the cost 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:21.520 of living help? 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:23.560 Well, it depends what sort of cost of living help 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.440 you're talking about. It's more structural the spending problems inside 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:31.520 the federal budget, like we do know for instance, and 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:34.040 the government has been upfront and has taken some action 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:38.440 around the NDIS for instance, but that is not the 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:42.599 biggest source of spending, like the age pension technically is bigger. 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.880 The GST is the single largest expense in the budget. 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.520 Then throw in the demand for age care. We've not 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:51.960 many years ago we had a Royal commission saying how 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.640 terrible the age care sector was, and so more money 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:58.839 had to go into that. The defense hawks have looked 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.960 and said, we need a large uplift in spending on 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:05.760 defense that doesn't come out of nowhere. So we are 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.560 talking substantial sums. If you were trying to one reduce 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:14.800 overall government spending but increase it in particular areas, if 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.640 you went down that path, you're in the tens of 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:22.120 billions of dollars every year and there would be a 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.479 lot of people feeling pain if you went down that path. 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.479 One of the government's biggest moves recently was the cut 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:31.000 to the fuel excise, which is broad and expensive. So 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.200 does that go against the Treasurer saying we need a 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:34.080 discipline budget. 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.320 At the end of that it's two point six billion 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:37.560 that fuel excise. 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:41.440 Like I've argued, you wouldn't do that because that is 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:45.560 the price signal being sent by the surgeon. All prices 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:48.240 should be enough to dissuade people to go out on 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.920 driving around and you can see that even in the 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:54.919 public transport usage data that we're getting from the state 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:59.040 governments and the reduction in actual driving that's occurred. 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.760 Of course, I continued to see unacceptable impacts, particularly in 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.080 regional Australia, as the supply chain has struggled to cope 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:10.320 with massive spikes in demand, a doubling of demand for 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:14.280 petrol and diesel across Australia. Petrol use has an increase, 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:16.039 but petrol demand has. 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:17.279 People are storing petrol. 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.240 There is an argument about what it does to farmers 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:23.120 and miners and the transport sector. Like I don't if 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:27.239 I was coal's or woolies, I'd be really concerned about anything. 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.640 So that would give them slight relief. But there was 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.599 no announcement on how he would offset that, and I 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:35.640 think the budget was probably in a little bit stronger 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.440 position going into this than what had been expected, so 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.640 we'll probably just say, right, that'll reduce that'll increase the 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.640 deficit that we were going to run. It's really how 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.880 you kick off into the coming financial year. The fuel 0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:51.920 excise reduction lasts until the start of the new financial year. 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:55.640 If we're having to cut excise going forward from there, 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:57.960 that tells you the situation the Middle East has got 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.880 even worse, and there may even be a bigger problem 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.320 than inflation. The economy may be in real trouble by then. 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:07.240 Yeah, let's say beigneficants to that. Shane, in your view, 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:10.119 what kind of budget response would actually help right now. 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:14.520 Look, you would be looking to trim spending as broadly 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:18.960 as you can. Even a reduction in the pace of 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:22.280 spending growth would be a start. So that's what you're 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:26.200 looking for, making things, making government programs more efficient. Ndies 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:30.360 stands out, defense stands out given how much spending goes 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.240 on in that way, pushing back on states who want 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.960 more money for everything, and then some and that feeds 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:38.559 into the health and education sector. 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:39.800 So that's where you'd start. 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.400 And then you're getting into ways that would make the 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.800 economy grow faster, which means if the economy's growing faster, 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:49.040 then you can afford all the pretty good little things that. 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:49.880 You might want to do. 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:52.320 That gives you that space, But you've got to get 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.800 the economy growing a bit faster without having inflation pressures 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:56.640 building through. 0:07:56.440 --> 0:08:02.680 It up Well, the government listened to calls to increase 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:03.720 the tax on gas. 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.040 The strategy of that line for you today is calibrated 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:23.160 for this kind of environment, a supply side strategy to 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:25.640 leave the speed emit of the economy to make it 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:29.880 more the zoom, create room in the budget to expand capacity, 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:33.440 and to make our tax systems stronger and fairer and 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.480 more sustainable, so that we can sustain stronger growth in 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:37.240 our economy. 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.680 One of Charmer's big lines is increasing productivity, lifting the 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.320 speed limit of the economy, as he puts it. Do 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.079 you have any sense of what his approach to increasing 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:48.560 productivity is likely to be. 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:52.480 I think you'll see a fair bit about regulation. The 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:55.000 productivity story is really interesting because this has been a 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.640 global problem since the global financial crisis, in fact, just 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:02.800 a little bit before that. We productivity is never driven 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:06.240 by governments, as much as some people might want to argue. 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:10.760 It's driven by businesses innovating and using new tech. And 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.079 the new tech on the right at the moment is AI, 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.160 and there is a reason why productivity in the US 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.679 has lifted because it is at the center of the 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:22.320 AI revolution that's going on there. No one else has 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.840 picked it up yet, but we can see the huge 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:30.400 investment in data centers that started around the middle of 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:32.760 last year, and which is one of the reasons the 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.280 Australian economy was growing a bit faster than anyone thought. 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.839 That may be the starting point. And if you can 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:42.679 find a way to better utilize resources through the use 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.439 of this tech, well that is the history of productivity 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.200 all the way back to the Industrial Revolution, so not 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:53.480 getting in the way of AI making sure it works efficiently. 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.080 So that might mean pushing back on vested interests, say 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:01.920 around the union movement, even around the media, which has 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.400 got strong views around copyright usage, that sort of thing. 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.600 And when it comes to regulation, it's really all about 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.880 doing as much regulation as we need to to protect 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:15.200 people and as little as we can to encourage innovation. 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.640 And that's how we maximize the big opportunity, the big 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:23.040 game changing opportunity of artificial intelligence, while also managing and 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.360 mitigating as many of the risks as we can. 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:29.199 That is one way. It may be about better transport networks. 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:34.319 That's another way, just bringing ideas getting businesses to invest, 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:39.040 not maybe in AI, but in new equipment. We're waiting 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.840 on a formal response by Charmers to the Productivity Commissions 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:46.280 report on business tax which came up with a proposal 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:48.640 for a cash flow tax, which no one in the 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:53.240 business community wants and it would hurt really large businesses 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.720 which do the bulk of R and D investment. So 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:59.040 I think you will see a tax incentive or tax 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:03.080 change in that regard to get businesses to spend on 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.760 new plant and equipment, and that is one way to 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.040 get the economy running a bit faster than it otherwise would. 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.959 Charmers has now confirmed that there will be tax reform 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:13.800 in the budget, but he still won't say whether that 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.720 includes capital gains. Do you think this could be the 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:20.160 moment that the government does something meaningful in housing and tax. 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.640 To give them their due, Like, we haven't had a 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.720 government like this one in terms of being upfront about 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:30.079 setting a target for new homes throwing a huge amount 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.160 of money at it since the seventies. Like it is 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:36.079 a real outlier. You can argue about whether it's successful. 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:37.480 Yeah, but the ambition is there. 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.599 The first budget is where he set a charm to 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:41.800 set a target of one million new homes. They've actually 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.000 increased the target and they will not reach it at 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.800 this point, but you're putting that into the budget. That 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.400 is sending a clear message the capital gains tax and 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:54.680 its interaction with with negative gearing. Ultimately, it's more a 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.280 signal because all the research in that space suggests they 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.920 are marginal in terms of bringing on new supply and 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.800 reducing prices. We're talking one to three four percent in 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:09.920 terms of total impact. So the best thing you could 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:12.000 do is always going to be on the supply side. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.800 And in fact, there figures out on Wednesday showing that 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.400 the number of dwelling approvals building approvals is up nine 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.520 percent over the last twelve months. Huge lift in the 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:25.920 number of units being improved. That would be one way 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.760 to bring more dwellings into the market, but we're still 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.160 way short of what a country with this sort of 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:38.640 population growth and a tax system that encourages in speculative 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:40.760 investment in the property market can deal with. 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.800 And what about gas, Shane, We know the fossil fuel 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.520 companies are making a monsa. There are calls for a 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.720 twenty five percent gas export levy, a Labor is now 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.480 backing in inquiry into oil and gas taxation. It almost 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.880 feels like not taxing ghosts would be more politically difficult 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:58.160 than actually doing it. 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.559 At this stage you're getting to but there's a real 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:05.800 tension inside the government because the non ministers are suggesting, well, 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:08.720 why don't we go down this path. David Pocock, independent 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.120 Senator from the Act is in that case, so are 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:16.280 some of the Teal members in the House. Australians deserve 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.559 to get a fair return on the export of our gas. 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.400 That gas belongs to all Australians. 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.520 Companies can export, they can make a profit, but they 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:27.280 should be paying US twenty five percent of whatever they get. 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:28.200 For that gas. 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.480 But there's always that real tension about what signal does 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:35.800 it send to say our big exporters, that big importing 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:37.480 nations like Japan and South Korea. 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:40.240 Would it have an impact on investment? 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:42.800 If you're a gas manufacturer and you were banking on 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:45.800 this somehow, you thought there'd be a war in the 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:49.440 Middle East which would lead to Kata losing about a 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.720 fifth of its production for five years, and that's what 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.240 you were banking on an investment program for Look, there's 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:56.920 a bridge over the Sydney Harbor that I think I 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.040 should sell to you, like I don't. That doesn't pass 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:03.040 any pub tests. But we've seen even the lifting oil prices, 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.640 there have been an increase in exploration whether you can 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.160 get it over the line. Like these projects they take 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.920 decades to get up. So you could see the argument 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:15.800 from this sect the sector saying, look, if you say 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.959 we're going to put on a permanent tax for twenty 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.240 five percent years ago, oh, hold on, that might hurt. 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.520 If you're saying this is a windfall tax for a 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.440 short period of time, you might get away with it. 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.200 But I'm not convinced they've got to that point yet 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.240 where they'll sign off on what would be a very 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.440 large tax change so close to the budget. 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.360 And if they don't do it now, will they ever 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:37.640 do it? 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.360 Shange, No, you wouldn't. Look. 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.320 I often hear people talk about, well, Norway has its 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:46.560 own sovereign wealth fund and they've done this, that and 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.760 the other. But Norway is a very has a very 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:54.280 different political culture. It runs the oil and gas exploration 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.600 industry there. We don't have that. We are a fully 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.240 much more capitalistic and free enterprise approach to it. That 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.400 would be asking a lot a big change in direction 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:05.120 for the country. 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.880 Finally, Shane, it's unlikely Labor is going to have this 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.760 much power in the parliament ever again, So do you 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:13.720 think they'll use it? And will there be any significant 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.120 reform this budget or do you think they're spoot and 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.000 a lot of this budget might wind up being crisis management. 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:20.400 That's the real risk. 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.920 Charmers is continuing to say there will be reform and 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.280 he's gone the three areas saving tax and productivity, And 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:32.080 you're absolutely right. Ninety four members in the House, so 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.920 no trouble is getting anything through the through the lower house. 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.560 In the Senate, if something appeals on the left, he's 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:39.880 got the Greens. If there's something on the right that 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:41.840 he could get through with the sport of the coalition, 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:47.560 he's got options. So that political cycle is on his site. 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.120 The economic cycle, given what's going on with the war 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.640 in Iran, is against him right at the moment. But politically, 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:57.360 are you going to take a punt that will make 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:02.520 major changes further down the path? That argument about he's 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.800 a non reforming PM, he's starting to bite for him 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.000 and for members of the government thinking we'll hold on 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:13.280 what's labor stand for. Labor stands for change, Labour stands reform, 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.480 And there those who are trying to remind him it's 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.440 not just here to occupy the benches, the government benches, 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.280 it's actually to do things. You can see all that 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:26.480 historical tension lining up with the political circumstances as well 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.200 as the economic issues that Charmers and Albanez you have 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:30.640 to deal with. 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.160 Shane, Thank you so much for your time. Fascinating stuff. 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:53.080 Thanks Daniel, I'm Daniel James, Thanks for listening to seven AM. Tomorrow, 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.000 we'll bring you an episode from the archive on Donald 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:59.720 Trump's friendship with the founder of World Wrestling Entertainment, Vince McMartin, 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.880 and how Trump made it into the WWE Hall of Fame, 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.159 and how the color and language of pro wrestling shapes 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.280 the way he does politics. We'll see you there.