1 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: almar Je. Politics is changing quickly. Just in the last 3 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: few days, We've had the US pressuring Australia to increase 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: defense spending to combat China's growing influence in the Indo Pacific. 5 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: At the same time, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is 6 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: warning the Chinese military attack on Taiwan could be imminent 7 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: his words, And in Europe, Ukraine has launched a major 8 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: drone attack on Russian airfields, wiping out billions of dollars 9 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: worth of bombers. But is it enough to change the 10 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: course of the war? Professor James Current teaches political and 11 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: diplomatic history at the University of Sydney and it's a 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: columnist at the Australian Financial Review. His latest book is 13 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: Australia's China Odyssey from Euphoria to Fear. James, welcome back 14 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. 15 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: Thanks very much for having me. 16 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: Let's start with the US. How are we to take 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: mister Hegsith's comments about how much we should be spending 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: on defense? It's almost insulting from someone from a commoner 19 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: like me, right, But to actually hear in the US 20 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: trying to dictate what we should be spending in any area. 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: It takes some getting used to, James. 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,279 Speaker 2: Look, yeah, it's it's certainly something. I think the United 23 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 2: States under Trump is now giving Australia and key allies 24 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: and partners in the region the European treatment. You know, 25 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: they've sort of shocked and jolted a lot of the 26 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: European countries into upping their defense spending as a percentage 27 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 2: of GDP because they felt that the United States was 28 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 2: carrying too much of the NATO burden. Well, clearly that 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: approach is being now applied to Asia. I think the 30 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: American administration Austrasian must know that this is not possible 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: for a lot of the Asian allies and partners, and 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: you know, as I argue today and the Financial Review, 33 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 2: perhaps they don't even care. I think the problem too, 34 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: is that the message is being delivered by someone with 35 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: no real stature or authority in Pete Hegseth. He's had 36 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 2: a very troubled period as US Defense Secretary. And I 37 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 2: think a lot of Asian allies will be doing with 38 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: this announcement effectively what they've been doing with the tariffs. 39 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: We just don't know really how much pressure the United 40 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: States will keep pushing on this point. Trump, as we know, 41 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 2: is mercurial. The tariffs are on, then they're off again, 42 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 2: then there's a pause, then the courts are stopping them. 43 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 2: So and I think, you know, in the case of Australia, 44 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 2: I mean it is I think healthy that the Prime 45 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 2: Minister is already pushed back against this kind of demand 46 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 2: from Washington. He's saying that Australia will stick to two 47 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: point three three percent of GDP on defense by twenty 48 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 2: thirty two, and he is resolute that Australia is already 49 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: doing enough. But it's very clear that the United States 50 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 2: thinks at the moment that what work in Europe is 51 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: going to work in Asia. But I'm not sure it'll 52 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 2: be quite as easy as that. 53 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: How does Australia play this because we are very close 54 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: to China in a trading sense, and it's a very 55 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: important economic partner in defense wise, US up until now 56 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 1: has always been our greatest ally. What is the path 57 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: forward in the next little bit. 58 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, it's a tricky time and it needs a 59 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: lot of diplomatic guile, and I do think we are 60 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 2: seeing some signs of guile from the Albanese government at 61 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 2: the moment on this. They are not just caving in. 62 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 2: I mean, unfortunately, Defense Minister Richard Miles has sort of 63 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: opened the door to a conversation with the Americans about 64 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 2: this increase in defense spending, but perhaps he has to 65 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: say that publicly privately. I don't think we're going to 66 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: budge the issue too here, Sean. Is that is that 67 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 2: Hexth said the Allies who think that they can still 68 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: have a very close relationship with Washington on security and 69 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 2: good economic relations with China, he actually said they will 70 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: be a drag on decision making in a time of 71 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 2: crisis or conflict. So in effect, he's trying to say 72 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 2: that if you want to have the best of both worlds, 73 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: those days are over now, you know. I mean try 74 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 2: telling that to most of the Southeast Asian economies, who, 75 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 2: while they still want the United States to stick around militarily, 76 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 2: are not about to cut themselves off from the China market. 77 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: And Australia is not going to do that either. Trade 78 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: Minister Don Farrell has said emphatically that Australia wants to 79 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 2: do more business with China and that Australia will act 80 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: in its interests, not what the Americans might want us 81 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: to do. So I think, you know, like the Japanese, 82 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 2: I think we probably just need to play this pretty calmly, 83 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: pretty cautiously. There's no need for strong language going back 84 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 2: to Trump. You know, we've already ruled out retaliation on 85 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: the tariffs. I think that's very wise. I think we 86 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 2: can just keep the conversation going, perhaps on the ten 87 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 2: percent tariff across the board. But I really I'm not 88 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: sure the administration really deep down things this is a 89 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: realistic prospect for Asian economies to get up to five 90 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 2: perc center GDP. They want Australia to get the three 91 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 2: point five percent. Well, that means the Albaneze cabinet has 92 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 2: got to find billions of extra dollars over the next 93 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: five to ten years. And to find that money, something 94 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: else has got to give. You know, we can't have everything. 95 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: Just before we leave this region where Heigs is talking 96 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: about and Chinese military attack on Taiwan could be imminent. 97 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: Does that fit into the ambit claim style bucket that 98 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: seems to come out of the White House all the time, 99 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: or is there some truth in that? 100 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 2: I think it's very wise to take cheese in Ping 101 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 2: at his word. That is to say that the Chinese president, 102 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 2: he's in his early seventies, he's ambitious, he has sort 103 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 2: of well and truly sort of displayed his capacity for 104 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 2: aggression and assertion. He has well and truly displayed a 105 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 2: capacity for bullying other countries, just ask the Philippines. Now, 106 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 2: I don't think it necess sarily follows that he has 107 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: a sort of specific timeline in his head on Taiwan. 108 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: Mind you, he has made it very clear that the 109 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 2: rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, as he puts it, is 110 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: conditional on Taiwan coming back to the Chinese mainland. Now, 111 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 2: I think the United States is probably I don't. I 112 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 2: think they are probably using that threat of an invasion 113 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: to up the ante on the allies. But I think 114 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 2: Hijinping will probably move with a different calculus. He'll be 115 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: looking at other motives and factors as to how he 116 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: could possibly engineer the return of Taiwan. I don't think 117 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 2: it's going to be by an amphibious invasion or an 118 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 2: outright military's assault. I think we're going to be looking 119 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 2: at some kind of potential strangulation of the country. Financially 120 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 2: or economically in a way that makes it very difficult 121 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 2: for the allies in the United States to know when 122 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 2: to intervene. It's going to be potentially something of that kind. 123 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: Stay with me, James, we'll be back in a minute. 124 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,559 Speaker 1: My guest this morning is James Current, professor of modern 125 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: history at the University of Sydney. Moving continents Europe, Ukraine 126 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: strike against Russia. How significant is it. 127 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 2: I think it's very important for Ukrainian morale because, let's 128 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 2: face it, after the kind of public drubbing that Zelenski 129 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: got in the Oval Office, which I think has alarmed 130 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 2: a lot of allies around the world, including Australia, that 131 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 2: a close ally of that kind can be treated in 132 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: that way in the center of American power. And given 133 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 2: the fact that you know, the United States under Trump 134 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 2: is more or less kind of walking away from Ukraine, 135 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: and the Europeans have, to their great credit banded together 136 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 2: and said that they will guarantee a longer term supply 137 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 2: of munitions. So I think in terms of just bolstering 138 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 2: Ukrainian morale, the fact that they've got the capacity to 139 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 2: make such a strike, I think is very important. But 140 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: in terms of the ongoing drama around trying to end 141 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: the war, which I think is a good thing that 142 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: Trump wants to do, but he's clearly losing patience with this. 143 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,119 Speaker 2: I'm not sure it will change that much in terms 144 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: of what Putin will demand, And at the moment, Putin 145 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: appears to be getting pretty much everything he wants in 146 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: that respect, and he's not going to give a crimea 147 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 2: and he's going to want to say that he's tacking 148 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 2: those Russian parts of the Ukraine back and reincorporating them 149 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 2: into the Russian Motherland, So the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine. 150 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 2: I mean, So will it have an effect on the 151 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 2: long term, I don't think so, But in terms of 152 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 2: Ukrainian morale, I think it's very very important. 153 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: How does that play out, do you think? I mean, 154 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,959 Speaker 1: that's set on to pieces of stream, I suppose, But 155 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: how does what do you think will happen in Ukraine 156 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: and Russia over the next couple of years? Do you 157 00:08:58,240 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: think we'll find a piece there? 158 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: One can only because there's a lot of innocent dying 159 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: as well as the fatalities. And you know, how long 160 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 2: is European resolve going to hold on? For Putin has 161 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 2: been able to throw the kitchen sink at this and 162 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 2: some I just don't think Putin is going to move 163 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: on having that land bridge down to Crimea, and I 164 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: don't think he's going to move on his opposition to 165 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 2: having peacekeepers European and other countries peacekeepers in Ukraine. At 166 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: the same time, I don't think given the fact that 167 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 2: Putin has been struggling to hold that percentage of Ukrainian territory, 168 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 2: which is twenty percent, I don't think it necessarily follows 169 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 2: that if Putin does get what he wants in Ukraine, 170 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 2: that he then starts on a pattern of conquest of 171 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 2: the rest of Eastern Europe or trying to sort of 172 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 2: reform the old Soviet Union. I don't think Russia has 173 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 2: the capability to do that, and it has been to 174 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 2: the Ukrainians enduring credit that they have been able to 175 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 2: bog Russia down and show up the limitations of Russian 176 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 2: military capabilities. I think we're still looking at a frozen 177 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 2: conflict for quite some time. One can only hope it 178 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 2: is not the same kind of frozen conflict that we 179 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 2: had after the and still have after the end of 180 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: the Korean War. But it's very difficult to see both 181 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 2: sides relinquishing key negotiating positions here and the Americans, as 182 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 2: I say, seem pretty impatient with it under President Trump. 183 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: James, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 184 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: My pleasure. 185 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: That was James, current professor of Modern History at the 186 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,440 Speaker 1: University of Sydney and columnist at the Financial Review. This 187 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Join us every 188 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed Business 189 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: News you can use I'm chanee elma Enjoy your day.