1 00:00:03,860 --> 00:00:06,550 Michael Thompson: Welcome to the Daily Interview for Fear and Greed, Australia's 2 00:00:06,550 --> 00:00:10,900 Michael Thompson: most popular business podcast. I'm Michael Thompson. Tonight Treasurer Josh 3 00:00:10,900 --> 00:00:14,320 Michael Thompson: Frydenberg will hand down his final budget before the election 4 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:17,470 Michael Thompson: in May. We'll have all the budget analysis for you 5 00:00:17,470 --> 00:00:19,299 Michael Thompson: tomorrow morning, but today we wanted to have a look 6 00:00:19,300 --> 00:00:22,460 Michael Thompson: at the politics of it. For a government heading into 7 00:00:22,460 --> 00:00:26,419 Michael Thompson: an election behind in the polls, just how critical is 8 00:00:26,420 --> 00:00:29,500 Michael Thompson: it to get the budget right? Michael Pachi is the 9 00:00:29,500 --> 00:00:32,670 Michael Thompson: National Political Editor for Nine Radio. Michael, welcome to Fear 10 00:00:32,670 --> 00:00:33,100 Michael Thompson: and Greed. 11 00:00:33,270 --> 00:00:33,990 Michael Pachi: Thank you, Michael. 12 00:00:34,610 --> 00:00:39,140 Michael Thompson: You've covered budgets for a long time. By the time 13 00:00:39,140 --> 00:00:41,190 Michael Thompson: you get to budget night there's not usually that many 14 00:00:41,190 --> 00:00:43,930 Michael Thompson: surprises left. In the couple of weeks leading up to 15 00:00:43,930 --> 00:00:47,220 Michael Thompson: it there's usually plenty of leaks, and the government's always 16 00:00:47,220 --> 00:00:50,840 Michael Thompson: very coy about these leaks, not really confirming anything, but 17 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,409 Michael Thompson: then you get to budget night and there they are 18 00:00:53,409 --> 00:00:56,160 Michael Thompson: pretty much word for word. Do you think we're in for 19 00:00:56,430 --> 00:00:57,660 Michael Thompson: any surprises tonight? 20 00:00:58,050 --> 00:01:01,780 Michael Pachi: Look, I think there'll probably be one big announcement that 21 00:01:01,830 --> 00:01:04,929 Michael Pachi: will come out of the federal budget. As you quite rightly 22 00:01:04,930 --> 00:01:07,569 Michael Pachi: say, there's been plenty of leaks already, a lot of the 23 00:01:07,569 --> 00:01:10,910 Michael Pachi: announcements so far have been pretty tame, I think, in 24 00:01:10,910 --> 00:01:14,700 Michael Pachi: defense, infrastructure, health, those sorts of things, but I do 25 00:01:14,700 --> 00:01:18,050 Michael Pachi: think there'll probably be one standout, or maybe two standout 26 00:01:18,050 --> 00:01:21,100 Michael Pachi: announcements that they'll make tonight, only because they're going to 27 00:01:21,100 --> 00:01:25,069 Michael Pachi: want something to promote, especially over an election campaign. Because let's 28 00:01:25,069 --> 00:01:29,080 Michael Pachi: be serious, Parliament's sitting for three days, today, Wednesday and 29 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,980 Michael Pachi: Thursday, and then not long after that an election will 30 00:01:31,980 --> 00:01:35,309 Michael Pachi: be called, and the bottom line is that the federal 31 00:01:35,310 --> 00:01:37,959 Michael Pachi: government is going to want to campaign on the budget, 32 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:39,670 Michael Pachi: and it's going to probably want to use one or 33 00:01:39,670 --> 00:01:44,679 Michael Pachi: two announcements which it can shape its campaign around. So 34 00:01:44,860 --> 00:01:47,490 Michael Pachi: while there have been a lot of leaks, I do 35 00:01:47,490 --> 00:01:50,190 Michael Pachi: think that we'll probably get maybe one or two announcements 36 00:01:50,370 --> 00:01:52,610 Michael Pachi: tonight, and I think that we'll probably get a bit 37 00:01:52,610 --> 00:01:56,760 Michael Pachi: more certainty around issues like the fuel excise, is it 38 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:58,730 Michael Pachi: going to be cut? We think that it is, by 39 00:01:58,730 --> 00:02:01,080 Michael Pachi: how much, and for how long, those sorts of things. 40 00:02:01,250 --> 00:02:03,900 Michael Pachi: Will there be a one- off payment for pensioners and 41 00:02:03,900 --> 00:02:06,420 Michael Pachi: low income earners? It looks as though there will be, 42 00:02:06,910 --> 00:02:09,660 Michael Pachi: how big will that one- off payment be? When will 43 00:02:09,660 --> 00:02:12,130 Michael Pachi: it land in bank accounts? That sort of thing, I 44 00:02:12,130 --> 00:02:13,709 Michael Pachi: think that sort of detail is what we're going to 45 00:02:13,710 --> 00:02:14,340 Michael Pachi: get tonight. 46 00:02:14,610 --> 00:02:18,809 Michael Thompson: You mentioned the potential cut to fuel excise. Petrol prices 47 00:02:18,810 --> 00:02:21,489 Michael Thompson: have really become a symbol lately of the cost of 48 00:02:21,490 --> 00:02:25,549 Michael Thompson: living pressures. How much will a cut to fuel excise 49 00:02:25,550 --> 00:02:29,579 Michael Thompson: actually help the government? Because it might make a, if 50 00:02:29,580 --> 00:02:33,810 Michael Thompson: it's between 10 and 20 cents per litre, a bit of a 51 00:02:33,810 --> 00:02:36,179 Michael Thompson: cut. But if this is going to be an election 52 00:02:36,180 --> 00:02:40,350 Michael Thompson: campaign that is really run on cost of living as 53 00:02:40,350 --> 00:02:42,419 Michael Thompson: one of the key issues, is that going to be 54 00:02:42,419 --> 00:02:45,480 Michael Thompson: enough to give them a bounce, or the bounce that 55 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:46,480 Michael Thompson: they really do need? 56 00:02:46,850 --> 00:02:49,510 Michael Pachi: No, I don't think so. From what I understand, even 57 00:02:49,510 --> 00:02:51,660 Michael Pachi: if it's about 20 cents a litre, the most people 58 00:02:51,970 --> 00:02:54,760 Michael Pachi: will save is about $10 or $ 15 on a litre of petrol. 59 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,150 Michael Pachi: Well, that would be welcome for many people, there's no 60 00:02:57,150 --> 00:03:00,899 Michael Pachi: doubt about that, and watching petrol prices fall on those 61 00:03:00,900 --> 00:03:03,960 Michael Pachi: boards, that would be welcome, but whether or not it's 62 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,840 Michael Pachi: going to be a vote changer, well, that remains to 63 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,560 Michael Pachi: be seen. Because one of the issues that the government is 64 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,990 Michael Pachi: going to be facing is that even once it says 65 00:03:11,990 --> 00:03:15,579 Michael Pachi: that the excise is coming down, let's say 20 cents 66 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,730 Michael Pachi: a litre for six months, well then it's up to 67 00:03:17,730 --> 00:03:20,560 Michael Pachi: the fuel companies to make sure that they pass those 68 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,959 Michael Pachi: savings on, and I think that's going to be the 69 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,680 Michael Pachi: other battle, the making sure that the fuel companies do 70 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,840 Michael Pachi: the right thing by the motorists. But I don't know 71 00:03:28,889 --> 00:03:30,960 Michael Pachi: that it's going to have that much of a say, 72 00:03:31,510 --> 00:03:35,490 Michael Pachi: or much sway, I should say, on voters, because to 73 00:03:35,490 --> 00:03:38,440 Michael Pachi: a certain extent I think that whatever the government seems 74 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,530 Michael Pachi: to be throwing out there doesn't seem to be sticking 75 00:03:41,530 --> 00:03:44,440 Michael Pachi: for some reason. I do get the sense that a 76 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,730 Michael Pachi: bit of an its time factor has started to creep 77 00:03:47,730 --> 00:03:50,670 Michael Pachi: in with a Coalition and the federal government more broadly, 78 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,270 Michael Pachi: even though the Coalition has got people through these last 79 00:03:54,270 --> 00:03:58,500 Michael Pachi: two years of COVID, it just seems that people aren't 80 00:03:58,500 --> 00:04:01,350 Michael Pachi: listening to the government anymore, regardless of what it is 81 00:04:01,490 --> 00:04:03,920 Michael Pachi: that it does. And the problem, I suppose, for the 82 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,940 Michael Pachi: government as well, Michael, is that Labor is backing this 83 00:04:06,940 --> 00:04:09,710 Michael Pachi: in, so there's no real contest there. It's not as though Labor 84 00:04:10,150 --> 00:04:13,040 Michael Pachi: is saying, " Well, we don't agree with the fuel excise being 85 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,320 Michael Pachi: cut, we're going to back it in, we are going to support it." 86 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:21,630 Michael Thompson: I suppose, then, there is clearly a lot of pressure 87 00:04:22,050 --> 00:04:26,620 Michael Thompson: on treasurer, Josh Frydenberg tonight, and it's not just to 88 00:04:26,670 --> 00:04:29,470 Michael Thompson: deliver a budget that's going to help the government get 89 00:04:29,470 --> 00:04:32,700 Michael Thompson: reelected, but is there also pressure on him to establish 90 00:04:32,700 --> 00:04:38,229 Michael Thompson: himself more clearly as Scott Morrison's political heir should the 91 00:04:38,230 --> 00:04:40,849 Michael Thompson: government not be returned at the next election? 92 00:04:41,050 --> 00:04:44,130 Michael Pachi: Yeah, look, I think so, and people like Josh Frydenberg, 93 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,940 Michael Pachi: and probably his other leadership rival, Peter Dutton, have been 94 00:04:47,940 --> 00:04:51,250 Michael Pachi: doing that for quite some time, Peter Dutton on issues 95 00:04:51,250 --> 00:04:54,000 Michael Pachi: of national security and defense, and there's been a lot of 96 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,520 Michael Pachi: spending in that area over the last couple of months, 97 00:04:56,750 --> 00:05:00,910 Michael Pachi: and Josh Frydenberg as the person that has got the levers 98 00:05:01,370 --> 00:05:04,040 Michael Pachi: on the economy and can make sure that the COVID recovery 99 00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:07,500 Michael Pachi: continues to take place. But yeah, this will be an 100 00:05:07,500 --> 00:05:10,740 Michael Pachi: important budget just as much for Josh Frydenberg in the 101 00:05:10,740 --> 00:05:13,050 Michael Pachi: way that he delivers it, in the way that it's 102 00:05:13,050 --> 00:05:17,600 Michael Pachi: sold during an election campaign, because people like Josh Frydenberg 103 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,770 Michael Pachi: are also fighting for their political life. His seat of 104 00:05:20,770 --> 00:05:24,479 Michael Pachi: Kooyong is come under threat by an independent who's pretty 105 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,839 Michael Pachi: cashed up and out there campaigning, and he's been forced 106 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,150 Michael Pachi: to also spend up big in his own electorate to 107 00:05:31,150 --> 00:05:34,380 Michael Pachi: make sure that he does get reelected, and it appears as 108 00:05:34,380 --> 00:05:38,150 Michael Pachi: though he will, but the threat from the independents has become 109 00:05:38,230 --> 00:05:42,350 Michael Pachi: real. So this is a real test for Josh Frydenberg 110 00:05:42,410 --> 00:05:45,979 Michael Pachi: as well in terms of the delivery of this budget, 111 00:05:45,980 --> 00:05:48,730 Michael Pachi: and he needs to strike the balance, and the balance 112 00:05:49,010 --> 00:05:52,330 Michael Pachi: is between debt and deficit, trying to get that down, 113 00:05:52,330 --> 00:05:54,870 Michael Pachi: and it does appear that this budget will show that 114 00:05:54,870 --> 00:05:58,040 Michael Pachi: debt and deficit is coming down, but also dealing with 115 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,830 Michael Pachi: these cost of living issues. And I suppose the real 116 00:06:00,830 --> 00:06:04,210 Michael Pachi: problem for Josh Frydenberg's going to be is that even though debt and 117 00:06:04,210 --> 00:06:06,979 Michael Pachi: deficit is coming down and we're being told that unemployment 118 00:06:06,980 --> 00:06:10,729 Michael Pachi: is coming down, that wages are also rising, the problem 119 00:06:10,730 --> 00:06:13,750 Michael Pachi: is, though, wages are not rising as fast as the 120 00:06:13,750 --> 00:06:16,909 Michael Pachi: cost of living, or as fast as inflation. So people 121 00:06:16,910 --> 00:06:19,049 Michael Pachi: have got that extra money in their pocket, but it's 122 00:06:19,060 --> 00:06:22,110 Michael Pachi: coming back out again, so how does he swear the 123 00:06:22,110 --> 00:06:23,839 Michael Pachi: ledger on these two things? 124 00:06:24,490 --> 00:06:26,290 Michael Thompson: So if we're looking at it, it's really going to 125 00:06:26,290 --> 00:06:30,169 Michael Thompson: be about cost of living as the key feature, almost, 126 00:06:30,170 --> 00:06:34,240 Michael Thompson: of this campaign. With everything that's happening though in Ukraine 127 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,250 Michael Thompson: at the moment, as well as the ongoing tensions with 128 00:06:36,380 --> 00:06:40,010 Michael Thompson: China, which have been brewing, and have really been a 129 00:06:40,010 --> 00:06:42,580 Michael Thompson: major issue now for the last couple of years, the 130 00:06:42,580 --> 00:06:45,410 Michael Thompson: potential has almost been there for an election with a 131 00:06:45,410 --> 00:06:48,969 Michael Thompson: very strong national security flavor to it, something that traditionally 132 00:06:48,970 --> 00:06:52,450 Michael Thompson: the Coalition does well at. A couple of weeks ago 133 00:06:52,450 --> 00:06:55,140 Michael Thompson: we saw the prime minister really trying to paint the 134 00:06:55,140 --> 00:06:58,659 Michael Thompson: opposition leader as pro- China, and also at the same 135 00:06:58,660 --> 00:07:03,040 Michael Thompson: time to portray China as being pro- Labor. Has he shifted 136 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:07,229 Michael Thompson: away from that now in favor of cost of living 137 00:07:07,230 --> 00:07:08,450 Michael Thompson: as the key battleground? 138 00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:12,610 Michael Pachi: Yeah, look, absolutely. I just think that the arguments that 139 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,340 Michael Pachi: the government mounted against Labor haven't stuck, which is quite 140 00:07:16,340 --> 00:07:19,320 Michael Pachi: interesting. I think that when it comes to national security 141 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,760 Michael Pachi: most polls do show that the Coalition is better on 142 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:27,860 Michael Pachi: national security than Labor, however, those polls have tightened. So 143 00:07:28,070 --> 00:07:31,770 Michael Pachi: most people don't think that electing an Albanese government is 144 00:07:31,770 --> 00:07:35,570 Michael Pachi: going to be worse for national security, especially younger voters 145 00:07:35,570 --> 00:07:38,210 Michael Pachi: and younger families, and that's what the polls seem to 146 00:07:38,210 --> 00:07:42,100 Michael Pachi: be showing, that people in that 35 to 49 age 147 00:07:42,100 --> 00:07:45,650 Michael Pachi: group are more than happy to vote a Labor government 148 00:07:45,650 --> 00:07:49,290 Michael Pachi: in and have Anthony Albanese run the country, because they 149 00:07:49,290 --> 00:07:53,540 Michael Pachi: don't believe that Labor would really, or necessarily represent a 150 00:07:53,540 --> 00:07:57,310 Michael Pachi: risk to national security, maybe the way they thought it 151 00:07:57,310 --> 00:07:59,680 Michael Pachi: might have been the case a couple of years ago. 152 00:07:59,870 --> 00:08:03,360 Michael Pachi: So there has been that shift, because essentially what's happened 153 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,390 Michael Pachi: is that Labor has come out and said, well, whatever 154 00:08:06,390 --> 00:08:08,560 Michael Pachi: the government is doing on national security, and whatever the 155 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,160 Michael Pachi: government is saying about China, we agree with them. And 156 00:08:12,330 --> 00:08:15,590 Michael Pachi: I think that to a certain extent that's dented the 157 00:08:15,590 --> 00:08:20,130 Michael Pachi: Coalition's attacks on the opposition, because it does appear that 158 00:08:20,300 --> 00:08:23,410 Michael Pachi: when it comes to national security, Labor is in lockstep 159 00:08:23,410 --> 00:08:26,010 Michael Pachi: with the government on issues of cost of living and the 160 00:08:26,010 --> 00:08:29,850 Michael Pachi: economy, the certain measures that the federal government has announced, 161 00:08:30,180 --> 00:08:32,740 Michael Pachi: the Labor is saying, " We'll back them in." So all 162 00:08:32,740 --> 00:08:35,990 Michael Pachi: of a sudden Labor doesn't seem to be that much of 163 00:08:35,990 --> 00:08:40,190 Michael Pachi: a risk to voters, especially younger voters. Now, when it 164 00:08:40,190 --> 00:08:44,020 Michael Pachi: comes to over 65s, and interestingly people of faith, well, 165 00:08:44,020 --> 00:08:47,380 Michael Pachi: they still seem to be backing the Coalition. But younger 166 00:08:47,380 --> 00:08:52,290 Michael Pachi: voters, even people earning over $ 150,000 a year, so people 167 00:08:52,790 --> 00:08:56,960 Michael Pachi: who would probably be considered wealthier, they also seem to 168 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,290 Michael Pachi: be backing Labor, and it obviously, what I think it 169 00:09:00,380 --> 00:09:02,929 Michael Pachi: shows, Michael, is that over the last couple of years 170 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,929 Michael Pachi: Labor has been successful in developing this narrative that the 171 00:09:07,929 --> 00:09:10,480 Michael Pachi: opposition, that the government, I should say, has been in 172 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,300 Michael Pachi: power for too long, they've taken their eye off the 173 00:09:13,300 --> 00:09:16,920 Michael Pachi: ball, certain things have gone wrong throughout the pandemic, and 174 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,670 Michael Pachi: they've waited too long to react to actually fix those 175 00:09:19,670 --> 00:09:24,570 Michael Pachi: problems. Now while that's not always right, because a lot of these are state 176 00:09:24,570 --> 00:09:27,900 Michael Pachi: based problems, I think that that narrative has been able 177 00:09:27,900 --> 00:09:30,500 Michael Pachi: to filter through successfully to the electorate. 178 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,590 Michael Thompson: It's funny what you said about trialing different strategies almost 179 00:09:34,590 --> 00:09:38,330 Michael Thompson: in terms of really attacking the Chinese element of it, 180 00:09:38,330 --> 00:09:42,720 Michael Thompson: deciding it doesn't work and moving on. It feels like 181 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,020 Michael Thompson: such a long time ago, but the fact is that 182 00:09:45,020 --> 00:09:48,810 Michael Thompson: the entire pandemic has been contained within the last term 183 00:09:49,050 --> 00:09:53,770 Michael Thompson: of this government. How much of this election will actually 184 00:09:53,770 --> 00:09:57,570 Michael Thompson: be a reflection on the government's response to the pandemic, 185 00:09:57,570 --> 00:10:02,319 Michael Thompson: the economic response, the vaccine rollout, or, again, have we 186 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,970 Michael Thompson: moved past a lot of that to the more immediate 187 00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:10,300 Michael Thompson: concerns like cost of living, and really the economic management 188 00:10:10,300 --> 00:10:13,960 Michael Thompson: now. There's obviously linked strongly to what happened during the 189 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,809 Michael Thompson: pandemic, but it does feel a long time ago, perhaps, 190 00:10:17,809 --> 00:10:18,840 Michael Thompson: in the minds of voters. 191 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,380 Michael Pachi: Yeah, absolutely, and that's a really good point, it does 192 00:10:21,380 --> 00:10:24,020 Michael Pachi: appear that we've moved on. Just look at what happened 193 00:10:24,020 --> 00:10:27,719 Michael Pachi: in South Australia, that's a clear example. You had Steven 194 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:32,429 Michael Pachi: Marshall, a first term Liberal government in SA, basically shepherd 195 00:10:32,429 --> 00:10:36,500 Michael Pachi: that state through COVID, improved its position in terms of 196 00:10:36,690 --> 00:10:39,550 Michael Pachi: the economy and so forth, but that state decided to 197 00:10:39,550 --> 00:10:42,970 Michael Pachi: throw out the Marshall Liberal government after one term and 198 00:10:43,020 --> 00:10:47,390 Michael Pachi: reelect a Labor government, fairly convincingly. And that would show 199 00:10:47,390 --> 00:10:50,310 Michael Pachi: that incumbency and the way that people dealt with COVID, 200 00:10:50,570 --> 00:10:53,840 Michael Pachi: those issues don't seem to matter anymore, and that people 201 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,829 Michael Pachi: are looking at the here and now, and for a 202 00:10:55,830 --> 00:10:58,120 Michael Pachi: lot of people the here and now is cost of 203 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,640 Michael Pachi: living, and that the fact that they're feeling it in the 204 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,330 Michael Pachi: hip pocket, and they want the government to do something 205 00:11:04,330 --> 00:11:07,770 Michael Pachi: about it. You could also argue, on that scale, is 206 00:11:07,770 --> 00:11:11,550 Michael Pachi: that have we also become conditioned during the pandemic for 207 00:11:11,550 --> 00:11:14,980 Michael Pachi: governments always to get involved, and to hand out money, 208 00:11:15,110 --> 00:11:17,240 Michael Pachi: and those sorts of things, and that when things get 209 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,699 Michael Pachi: tough they think that the government will just simply intervene, 210 00:11:19,890 --> 00:11:23,140 Michael Pachi: and they expect the government to intervene and hand out 211 00:11:23,140 --> 00:11:26,089 Michael Pachi: cash, even though that's adding to the debt pile, because 212 00:11:26,090 --> 00:11:28,740 Michael Pachi: it's money that needs to be borrowed and paid back 213 00:11:28,980 --> 00:11:32,000 Michael Pachi: down the track, and it's generations down the track that 214 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,050 Michael Pachi: are going to still be facing the pinch. Most economists 215 00:11:35,050 --> 00:11:38,360 Michael Pachi: say probably about 15 to 20 years before the budget 216 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,640 Michael Pachi: is actually back in balance, and you don't even know 217 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:43,960 Michael Pachi: if you'll get a surplus by then. And even at 218 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:47,490 Michael Pachi: the moment, Michael, the only reason that the budget seems 219 00:11:47,490 --> 00:11:49,570 Michael Pachi: to be doing okay and that debt and deficit seems 220 00:11:49,570 --> 00:11:52,030 Michael Pachi: to be coming down is because it's been driven by 221 00:11:52,030 --> 00:11:55,700 Michael Pachi: the resources boom. We're selling coal, iron ore, gas, all 222 00:11:55,700 --> 00:11:59,059 Michael Pachi: those sorts of commodities, and that's helping the budget bottom 223 00:11:59,059 --> 00:12:02,080 Michael Pachi: line, but just say prices for those commodities start to 224 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,780 Michael Pachi: come down, well then you're going to start feeling the 225 00:12:04,780 --> 00:12:07,929 Michael Pachi: squeeze, and whichever side is in government, whether it be 226 00:12:07,929 --> 00:12:10,600 Michael Pachi: the Coalition or Labor, they're going to have to start dealing with 227 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:11,479 Michael Pachi: those pressures. 228 00:12:12,020 --> 00:12:13,900 Michael Thompson: Stay with me, Michael, we'll be back in a moment. 229 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,250 Michael Thompson: My guest this morning is Michael Pachi, National Political Editor 230 00:12:22,290 --> 00:12:26,130 Michael Thompson: for nine Radio. Just having a very quick look at 231 00:12:26,590 --> 00:12:30,200 Michael Thompson: the Labor leadership, and in particular there's been a lot 232 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:35,359 Michael Thompson: of work done to establish Anthony Albanese as the alternative 233 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,480 Michael Thompson: prime minister. And you get the feeling that in the 234 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,870 Michael Thompson: last couple of weeks, since the death of Senator Kimberley 235 00:12:41,870 --> 00:12:45,560 Michael Thompson: Kitching from a suspected heart attack, that really the focus 236 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,360 Michael Thompson: has shifted now to allegations of bullying and the culture 237 00:12:49,429 --> 00:12:53,079 Michael Thompson: that has developed within the Labor party. How is this 238 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:57,300 Michael Thompson: now going to play out, and is this going to 239 00:12:57,300 --> 00:13:00,580 Michael Thompson: be an issue that resonates with voters during the election 240 00:13:00,580 --> 00:13:05,420 Michael Thompson: campaign, or is it something that really is just of 241 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:06,800 Michael Thompson: interest to the Canberra bubble? 242 00:13:07,260 --> 00:13:09,350 Michael Pachi: Yeah, look, I think there's a bit of beltway to 243 00:13:09,350 --> 00:13:13,090 Michael Pachi: it, but overall I think it probably has damaged Albo 244 00:13:13,090 --> 00:13:17,030 Michael Pachi: to a certain extent, these bullying allegations and the accusations 245 00:13:17,030 --> 00:13:20,750 Michael Pachi: of hypocrisy, and I think they're justified because Labor played 246 00:13:20,750 --> 00:13:24,880 Michael Pachi: pretty hard when these sorts of allegations of harassment were 247 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:30,500 Michael Pachi: gripping the Coalition last year, and Scott Morrison probably did 248 00:13:30,500 --> 00:13:32,630 Michael Pachi: take a while to start acting on them and get 249 00:13:32,630 --> 00:13:37,079 Michael Pachi: things done, and Labor was absolutely attacking him, and you could 250 00:13:37,190 --> 00:13:40,929 Michael Pachi: argue quite rightly something needed to happen to change the 251 00:13:40,929 --> 00:13:43,470 Michael Pachi: culture. But now when the shoe's on the other foot, 252 00:13:43,980 --> 00:13:48,130 Michael Pachi: it does appear that Anthony Albanese is dragging the chain. 253 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,550 Michael Pachi: Look, to a certain extent I think some voters would 254 00:13:50,550 --> 00:13:54,170 Michael Pachi: be disappointed that Anthony Albanese didn't act sooner to maybe 255 00:13:54,170 --> 00:13:57,030 Michael Pachi: call and inquiry into the culture within the Labor party, 256 00:13:57,230 --> 00:14:01,110 Michael Pachi: with the umbrella of the Kimberley Kitching allegations, that she 257 00:14:01,110 --> 00:14:03,820 Michael Pachi: was bullied and isolated, and all the rest of it. 258 00:14:04,110 --> 00:14:06,570 Michael Pachi: Maybe there was room to cause some sort of inquiry 259 00:14:06,570 --> 00:14:09,980 Michael Pachi: into more generally the culture within the Labor party, but 260 00:14:09,980 --> 00:14:12,590 Michael Pachi: he stood firm against it. I do think it'll hurt 261 00:14:12,590 --> 00:14:15,050 Michael Pachi: him with some voters, maybe in some of those inner 262 00:14:15,050 --> 00:14:17,720 Michael Pachi: city seats, which are paying probably a bit more attention 263 00:14:17,950 --> 00:14:21,440 Michael Pachi: to these sorts of issues, but more broadly I'm not 264 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,650 Michael Pachi: sure that it will have that much sway. I'm almost 265 00:14:24,650 --> 00:14:27,360 Michael Pachi: of the opinion, and maybe going out on a limb 266 00:14:27,630 --> 00:14:30,510 Michael Pachi: calling this, but I'm almost of the opinion that a lot of 267 00:14:30,510 --> 00:14:32,790 Michael Pachi: people out there have made up their mind as to 268 00:14:32,790 --> 00:14:35,360 Michael Pachi: how they're going to vote. And remember, an election's not 269 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:36,270 Michael Pachi: that far off. 270 00:14:37,140 --> 00:14:41,400 Michael Thompson: Time for some predictions then. After the budget, how long 271 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,330 Michael Thompson: will it be before the election is called, and how 272 00:14:45,330 --> 00:14:48,730 Michael Thompson: long before we see whether the government is getting the 273 00:14:48,730 --> 00:14:50,450 Michael Thompson: bounce that they need from the budget? 274 00:14:50,970 --> 00:14:53,810 Michael Pachi: Okay, so I think that after the budget the election 275 00:14:53,810 --> 00:14:56,840 Michael Pachi: will be called over this coming weekend, or the following 276 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,690 Michael Pachi: week, I mean, it pretty much has to, because the 277 00:14:59,690 --> 00:15:02,240 Michael Pachi: campaign needs to be at least five weeks, I think 278 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,780 Michael Pachi: that's enshrined in law that a campaign needs to be 279 00:15:05,050 --> 00:15:08,370 Michael Pachi: 30 days, or just over, so he needs that time. 280 00:15:08,570 --> 00:15:12,030 Michael Pachi: The latest that we can have an election day is 281 00:15:12,030 --> 00:15:15,119 Michael Pachi: Saturday the 21st of May, if it's not the 21st 282 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,130 Michael Pachi: of May it'll be the 14th of May. At first 283 00:15:18,130 --> 00:15:19,900 Michael Pachi: I thought it would be the 14th of May, I'm 284 00:15:19,900 --> 00:15:23,350 Michael Pachi: now starting to think it could well be the 21st, so that 285 00:15:23,350 --> 00:15:26,180 Michael Pachi: gives Scott Morrison as much time as possible to get 286 00:15:26,180 --> 00:15:28,540 Michael Pachi: out there and campaign, and we've got to remember he 287 00:15:28,540 --> 00:15:33,020 Michael Pachi: is a formidable campaigner, he's very at campaigning and resonating 288 00:15:33,020 --> 00:15:35,220 Michael Pachi: with the public on the ground, and he loves doing 289 00:15:35,220 --> 00:15:36,910 Michael Pachi: it. But the other thing we've got to keep in 290 00:15:36,910 --> 00:15:39,620 Michael Pachi: mind, Michael, there's all these seats in New South Wales, 291 00:15:39,620 --> 00:15:42,010 Michael Pachi: at least five of them, where they still haven't selected 292 00:15:42,010 --> 00:15:44,590 Michael Pachi: their candidates. Now that's going to be sorted out pretty 293 00:15:44,590 --> 00:15:46,940 Michael Pachi: soon, but you've got to think, once you've got your 294 00:15:46,940 --> 00:15:49,440 Michael Pachi: candidates sorted out, well that candidate's got to get out 295 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,010 Michael Pachi: there and start promoting themselves to electorate, and they've left 296 00:15:53,010 --> 00:15:57,820 Michael Pachi: it unbelievably late to be sorting these things out, given 297 00:15:57,820 --> 00:16:00,630 Michael Pachi: that an election is two months away, that there are 298 00:16:00,630 --> 00:16:03,920 Michael Pachi: some seats that the Liberals still need to sort themselves 299 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:07,220 Michael Pachi: out on. Look, I think that Western Australia, he's trying 300 00:16:07,220 --> 00:16:09,830 Michael Pachi: really hard, but probably'll lose a couple of seats in WA, 301 00:16:10,820 --> 00:16:13,700 Michael Pachi: the Libs will probably lose one seat in South Australia, 302 00:16:13,970 --> 00:16:16,390 Michael Pachi: then there could be the odd seat loss in New South 303 00:16:16,390 --> 00:16:20,030 Michael Pachi: Wales, Victoria, maybe in Tasmania, I think there'll be okay 304 00:16:20,030 --> 00:16:23,620 Michael Pachi: in Queensland. But when all is said and done, Michael, 305 00:16:23,620 --> 00:16:26,100 Michael Pachi: I think that we're either looking at a minority government, 306 00:16:26,100 --> 00:16:29,590 Michael Pachi: a hung parliament, or potentially Labor will get in and 307 00:16:29,590 --> 00:16:31,360 Michael Pachi: be able to govern in their own right. But I think this is going to 308 00:16:32,100 --> 00:16:35,390 Michael Pachi: be a very difficult election for Scott Morrison and the Coalition. 309 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,010 Michael Thompson: Well, he did pull off what was described as the 310 00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:43,060 Michael Thompson: miracle win last time, but as you say, the polls 311 00:16:43,060 --> 00:16:46,760 Michael Thompson: are heading in completely the wrong direction with a number 312 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:52,450 Michael Thompson: of the key demographics that he needs. But realistically, what 313 00:16:52,450 --> 00:16:54,610 Michael Thompson: is the likelihood of a hung parliament? Because that kind 314 00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:58,440 Michael Thompson: of uncertainty can be so, so damaging for national security, 315 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,640 Michael Thompson: for the economy, for everything really. 316 00:17:01,140 --> 00:17:03,610 Michael Pachi: I think the likelihood of a hung parliament is real. 317 00:17:03,660 --> 00:17:06,540 Michael Pachi: I mean, you've got to remember, Labor has 68 seats. 318 00:17:06,619 --> 00:17:09,659 Michael Pachi: They need to win essentially another eight on top of 319 00:17:09,660 --> 00:17:12,359 Michael Pachi: the 68 that they currently hold to govern in their 320 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,379 Michael Pachi: own right, to basically have the 76 seats which gives 321 00:17:15,380 --> 00:17:18,240 Michael Pachi: them the ability to govern them in their own right, 322 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,119 Michael Pachi: choose a speaker, and be able to make decisions as 323 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,800 Michael Pachi: they need to. I'm not sure that Labor can win 324 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,410 Michael Pachi: those eight seats outright. I think that Labor might get 325 00:17:28,410 --> 00:17:34,060 Michael Pachi: to maybe 72, 73 seats, and potentially the Coalition might go 326 00:17:34,060 --> 00:17:37,330 Michael Pachi: backwards to about 71 or 72. So if you've got 327 00:17:37,330 --> 00:17:40,840 Michael Pachi: the Coalition on 71 or 72 seats, and Labor on 328 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,800 Michael Pachi: about 73, let's say, well then they're going to need 329 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,490 Michael Pachi: independents to get them over the line, and as I 330 00:17:46,490 --> 00:17:50,550 Michael Pachi: mentioned earlier, you've got independents in seats like Wentworth, Dave 331 00:17:50,550 --> 00:17:53,680 Michael Pachi: Sharma. Well, there's a chance that he could lose to 332 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,659 Michael Pachi: independent Allegra Spender. Then you got even North Sydney, that's 333 00:17:57,660 --> 00:18:00,390 Michael Pachi: a fairly, you would think, a safe Liberal seat, but 334 00:18:00,390 --> 00:18:04,200 Michael Pachi: Trent Zimmerman is facing a real contest by an independent 335 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,479 Michael Pachi: of the name, Kylea Tink, and a lot of these people, 336 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,930 Michael Pachi: these independents, they're backed in really well, they're funded really 337 00:18:11,930 --> 00:18:15,180 Michael Pachi: well, and wherever you go you can see they've got 338 00:18:15,180 --> 00:18:18,890 Michael Pachi: trucks and billboards just going around these electorates, and the 339 00:18:18,890 --> 00:18:22,230 Michael Pachi: Liberal candidates are virtually nowhere to be seen. So the 340 00:18:22,230 --> 00:18:27,100 Michael Pachi: independents do pose a threat to the Liberals, and the 341 00:18:27,100 --> 00:18:30,790 Michael Pachi: bottom line is, is that either may need to form 342 00:18:30,790 --> 00:18:33,770 Michael Pachi: a Coalition with some of these independents, and the way 343 00:18:33,770 --> 00:18:36,820 Michael Pachi: these independents seem to be talking it seems that they'll 344 00:18:36,820 --> 00:18:40,500 Michael Pachi: back Labor and an Albanese government over a Morrison government. 345 00:18:40,500 --> 00:18:42,939 Michael Pachi: But I do think that a hung parliament is a 346 00:18:42,940 --> 00:18:44,070 Michael Pachi: real possibility. 347 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,210 Michael Thompson: All right, before we get to the election, though, got 348 00:18:46,210 --> 00:18:48,210 Michael Thompson: to get through the budget first. Good luck in the 349 00:18:48,210 --> 00:18:51,150 Michael Thompson: budget lockup this afternoon, and all the coverage this evening, 350 00:18:51,150 --> 00:18:52,899 Michael Thompson: thank you very much for talking to Fear and Greed. 351 00:18:53,530 --> 00:18:54,659 Michael Pachi: No problem, thanks Michael. 352 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,580 Michael Thompson: That was Michael Pachi, National Political Editor for Nine Radio. This 353 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,919 Michael Thompson: is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview, join us every 354 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,600 Michael Thompson: morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's 355 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:07,180 Michael Thompson: most popular business podcast. I'm Michael Thompson, have a great day.