WEBVTT - Is this the most dangerous era of the Iran war?

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<v Speaker 1>For more than a week. Donald Trump has ordered strikes

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<v Speaker 1>against Iran in a worsening cycle of attacks, including on

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<v Speaker 1>civilian infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 2>We hit him very hard again tonight, and we did

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<v Speaker 2>that in honor of the probably three. It's probably three,

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<v Speaker 2>as opposed to too great patriots.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has defended the strikes as honoring the deaths of

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<v Speaker 1>up to three American service members in an Iranian attack.

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<v Speaker 1>But the real goal is to get the straight of

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<v Speaker 1>Hamu's open again, something that looks increasingly unlikely. So with

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<v Speaker 1>the region once again on a knife's edge, the US

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<v Speaker 1>appears locked back into an escalating war unless the interim

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<v Speaker 1>cease by a deal can be salvaged. I'm Ruby Jones,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're listening to seven AM today diplomatic correspondent at

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<v Speaker 1>notice Akbasha hid Ahmed on the threat of all out

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<v Speaker 1>war and who is really in charge of what happens next.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, July twenty two. So act by the United

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<v Speaker 1>States has now carried out more than a week of

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<v Speaker 1>strikes on a run. American troops have been killed, Iran

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<v Speaker 1>is attacking US bases and allied countries. Traffic through the

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<v Speaker 1>strait of a Moose has almost completely stopped. So take

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<v Speaker 1>us through what's happened over the past few days and

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<v Speaker 1>how close things are again now to and all out more.

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<v Speaker 3>It's really been stunning sort of spiral back into open conflict,

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<v Speaker 3>not an unpredictable one. Certainly, whatever deal the US and

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranians were able to reach in June was quite shaky.

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<v Speaker 3>It depended on two sides that have more than forty

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<v Speaker 3>years of enmity, right, and a lot of that blood

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<v Speaker 3>extending well beyond the Trump administration. However, what's happened sort

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<v Speaker 3>of in this standar period where now is really focused

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<v Speaker 3>on one specific issue and one specific dispute between the

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<v Speaker 3>US and Iran, which is the Strait of Hollows. That's

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<v Speaker 3>that strategic waterway between the Arabian and Peninsula and Iran's

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<v Speaker 3>southern coast through which a large proportion about a fifth

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<v Speaker 3>of the world's oil and gas supplies travel in a

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<v Speaker 3>normal time of peace. That Trump administration and Iran are

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<v Speaker 3>arguing over how this should be operated.

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<v Speaker 1>The battle to control the Strait of Removes continues as

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<v Speaker 1>the United States launches its seventh consecutive night of strikes

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<v Speaker 1>on Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Under no circumstances and in no way, we will allow

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<v Speaker 3>the United States, as a foreign an extra regional country,

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<v Speaker 3>to interfere in the strait of hole mood.

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<v Speaker 4>Breaking news, the Pentagon says two US service members are

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<v Speaker 4>dead and a third is missing after Iranian attacks in Jordan.

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<v Speaker 3>It comes another wave of strikes against Iran, marking the

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<v Speaker 3>tenth consecutive night of attacks. Explosions have been reported. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's pretty been a bit of an escalating tit for

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<v Speaker 3>tap and that's what experts are contects are really worried

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<v Speaker 3>about in a period like this where you just can't

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<v Speaker 3>wind things downd, you only keep ratchting up.

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<v Speaker 1>And so tell me a bit more about the target's hit.

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<v Speaker 1>Because Donald Trump has long threatened the mass targeting of

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<v Speaker 1>civilian infrastructure. Back in April, he threatened what he called

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<v Speaker 1>power plant and bridge.

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<v Speaker 2>Day, every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding,

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<v Speaker 2>and never to be used again, I mean complete.

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<v Speaker 1>So is that what we're saying here?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, the Trump administration has been quite clear about that

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<v Speaker 3>view of international law. International law, including the law of war,

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<v Speaker 3>says you cannot target civilian infrastructure. However, President Trump has

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<v Speaker 3>really openly said, well, I don't really think these rules

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<v Speaker 3>applied to the US. I don't need international law.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you feel your administration needs to abide by international

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<v Speaker 4>law on.

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<v Speaker 1>The global stadia?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I do.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I do, but it depends what your definition

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<v Speaker 2>of international laws.

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<v Speaker 3>And so, yes, we are now seeing the US target

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<v Speaker 3>civilian infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 5>The Iranians have come back though, and talked about several

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<v Speaker 5>areas of civilian infrastructure that they say have been hit,

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<v Speaker 5>including five bridges, an airport, and a railway station, and

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<v Speaker 5>that eight people were killed in these attacks. The US

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<v Speaker 5>has not commented on these allegations.

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<v Speaker 3>Are these potential war crimes? Certainly international law experts and

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<v Speaker 3>people inside the government ruby who I've spoken with are

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<v Speaker 3>concerned about that risk that, yes, US officials may be

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<v Speaker 3>implicating themselves in violations of international law on a daily basis.

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<v Speaker 3>And this is that ratcheting up that President Trump has

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<v Speaker 3>indicated part of that is what's making this escalation look

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<v Speaker 3>so scary to observer US, because it looks like the

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<v Speaker 3>pattern of US stripes is almost targeting Iran's ability to

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<v Speaker 3>use its own forces within its territory, raising the question

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<v Speaker 3>of not only are we breaking international law here, are

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<v Speaker 3>we moving towards an American crowned invasion of parts of

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<v Speaker 3>So is this targny of bridges about not just instilling fear,

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<v Speaker 3>creating panic, all of that scaring the Iranians, but leading

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<v Speaker 3>to a bigger war.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's talk a bit more about what the goal

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<v Speaker 1>here might be, because Washington and the Trump administration's rationale

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<v Speaker 1>it's been fluid this whole time. It was initially presented

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<v Speaker 1>as preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, destroying its

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<v Speaker 1>missile industry and navy, giving Iranians an opportunity to overthrow

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<v Speaker 1>their government. What is the administration actually saying now about

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<v Speaker 1>what it's trying to do, what it's trying to achieve.

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<v Speaker 3>It's so important that you brought up this previous administration

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<v Speaker 3>argument of freeing around and advancing principles of human rights

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<v Speaker 3>and the idea of perhaps any other regime change away

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<v Speaker 3>from this really autocratic regime in Iran, which of course

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<v Speaker 3>has killed hundreds of their own people, if not thousands

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<v Speaker 3>in protests just earlier this year. A lot of that

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<v Speaker 3>language has been abandoned and said. What we've seen in

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<v Speaker 3>this period is a race to the bottom by the

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<v Speaker 3>US and also by Iran, by the way, which has

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<v Speaker 3>targeted civilian infrastructure in Arab countries across the region, like

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<v Speaker 3>water desalination plants really essential. So what we're seeing and

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<v Speaker 3>said is it might makes right approach from both sides.

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<v Speaker 3>So the Trump administration has given US reporters who are

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<v Speaker 3>constantly pressing the White House in the State Department for explanations.

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<v Speaker 3>The basic thing seems to be President Trump can't at

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<v Speaker 3>go of the idea that more military pressure will lead

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<v Speaker 3>to more concessions from the Iranians. Now, initially what he

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<v Speaker 3>wanted concessions on was the nuclear enrichment. That's totally off

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<v Speaker 3>the table now and that kind of speaks to the

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<v Speaker 3>bigger moment of crisis we're in where now what the

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<v Speaker 3>concessions Trump wants over the Strait of hor moves.

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<v Speaker 4>And we've pivoted. Now what we're doing is assuring that

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<v Speaker 4>oil and gas and other products can flow through the

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<v Speaker 4>Strait of Horror moves whi or without Iranian cooperation, and

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<v Speaker 4>we've continued to degrade their offensive military capabilities. The President

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<v Speaker 4>is always looking for the diplomatic off ramp. President Trump

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<v Speaker 4>wants to end it with a peaceful agreement with Iran, but.

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<v Speaker 3>It takes so any sort of settlement would just address

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<v Speaker 3>the street, leaving open those underlying issues and disputes between

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<v Speaker 3>the US and Iran, and leaving open a question of

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<v Speaker 3>would the US go back to an attack, which from

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranian standpoint, they're saying, well, why not just escalatee

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<v Speaker 3>fully right now rather than wait six months or a

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<v Speaker 3>year for another joint US it's really attack over the

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear program over there are other problems with US.

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<v Speaker 1>So the administration says it wants to keep the straight

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<v Speaker 1>upon moves open, and it says it can do that

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<v Speaker 1>with or without Iranian cooperation.

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<v Speaker 4>If they're ready to do that, that's the way it'll end.

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<v Speaker 4>If not, we will continue to show a sure flow

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<v Speaker 4>of traffic through the strait without Iran's cooperation.

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<v Speaker 1>But shipping remains at a fraction of its normal level.

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<v Speaker 1>So can the US actually for its way to having

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<v Speaker 1>this straight open.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, Ruby, I have been talking to a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>military officials, service members in the region and American troops

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<v Speaker 3>who are being deployed and more are traveling through the

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<v Speaker 3>region at this moment actually to sort of ramp up

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<v Speaker 3>the American presence. They are our feeling that they're equipped

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<v Speaker 3>for the mission that the Administration is putting out there

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<v Speaker 3>and sort of implicating them in and making them vulnerable

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<v Speaker 3>in so a lot of people on the ground who

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<v Speaker 3>are being told, yes, you're going to do this to

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<v Speaker 3>sort of take back control of the Strait of Hormos.

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<v Speaker 3>This was ever an issue prior to this war. This

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<v Speaker 3>was a war of choice in which the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>chose to create a new status po in the region,

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<v Speaker 3>fail to do so, and is now trying to go

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<v Speaker 3>back to a pre war approach of free navigation that

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<v Speaker 3>most analysts, most observist belief is not coming back. I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think that the way the trade gets resolved is

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<v Speaker 3>through some US application of pressure. It's most likely through

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<v Speaker 3>a new deal between the US, Iran and some of

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<v Speaker 3>the US aligned countries of the region or mand cutter

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<v Speaker 3>unized our memirates that anything within that would not take

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<v Speaker 3>us back to February twenty seventh, before Trump launched this war.

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<v Speaker 3>So effectively, he's accepting a loss.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Donald Trump and the Madman theory. Akbay, You've

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<v Speaker 1>reported on Trump's use of the mad Man theory, So

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<v Speaker 1>the idea that Iran will concede because it can't predict

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<v Speaker 1>how far he will go. Who is actually shaping policy

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<v Speaker 1>inside this administration, and how much of this strategy comes

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<v Speaker 1>down to Trump's impulses.

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<v Speaker 3>The President certainly has a really strong conviction that a

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<v Speaker 3>madman approach works. He thinks that it has made him

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<v Speaker 3>successful in business, has made him successful in politics. If

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<v Speaker 3>you look at a ideological shifts on so many issues,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, abortion, gay rights, a whole range of things,

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<v Speaker 3>he's really flip flopped. People around him ruby are trying

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<v Speaker 3>to influence his thinking that they're also very sort of

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<v Speaker 3>driven by their own agendas, right, So you look at

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<v Speaker 3>someone like Secretary of State Mark or Rubio and Vice

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<v Speaker 3>President Shady Vance, who have differing views on the war

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<v Speaker 3>to a degree, Advance being a little more skeptical of

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<v Speaker 3>the war than Rubio. They're also both trying to set

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<v Speaker 3>themselves up to take the mantle from Trump. So the

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<v Speaker 3>question then becomes, are they giving Trump their best advice

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<v Speaker 3>or are they giving Trump the advice they think he

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<v Speaker 3>wants to hear to get his endorsement for the Republican

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<v Speaker 3>presidential primary in the future. And these are kind of

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<v Speaker 3>the factors that are drawing what's around him from people

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<v Speaker 3>I know who are briefing him in the room with him,

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<v Speaker 3>he is personally often more hawkish than those around him,

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<v Speaker 3>including even Rubio, a longtime hawk on around Trump's kind

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<v Speaker 3>of determination to Devin straightest strength is very very much

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<v Speaker 3>driving the show right now. And then of course that's

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<v Speaker 3>a sectary of defense speed. Heags at again very very

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<v Speaker 3>interested in this idea of if we just apply more force,

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<v Speaker 3>we'll get better results. But I really draw this out

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<v Speaker 3>to kind of pre Trump patterns in US foreign policy

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<v Speaker 3>in that presidents have not been asked to read in

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<v Speaker 3>their war making power for a very very long time,

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<v Speaker 3>especially in the kind of post nine to eleven era

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<v Speaker 3>where wars have dragged on in places like Yemen, Pakistan,

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<v Speaker 3>Somalia without any check and without any clear strategic rationale,

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<v Speaker 3>while causing huge strategic and human cost.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you look at what's happening and the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that neither Iran or the US appear willing to accept

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<v Speaker 1>the other's terms, is there still an off ramp here

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<v Speaker 1>or are we looking at this escalating open ended war scenario.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a real cost, you know. I mean, hundreds of

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<v Speaker 3>Iranians have lost their life already, including many civilians including children.

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<v Speaker 3>Iran is in a deep, deep economic crisis. So there

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<v Speaker 3>are voices within Iran saying we need to reach some

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<v Speaker 3>sort of concession with the US. On the American side,

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<v Speaker 3>the price is not quite being felt yet. Yes, more

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<v Speaker 3>service members have been killed. It's now come out that

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<v Speaker 3>the Pentagon was not releasing some of the injuries among

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<v Speaker 3>American troops. I think that's going to become a bigger

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<v Speaker 3>story and a bigger concern of our Americans safe. It's

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<v Speaker 3>raising bigger questions about US basis. But no, I think

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<v Speaker 3>right now we're not in a season of an off ramp.

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<v Speaker 3>While we do know that a new diplomatic framework has

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<v Speaker 3>been proposed by Cutter, one of the regional mediators, there's

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<v Speaker 3>no kind of indication that it's sort of feasible. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>there's no sense that either the Trump administration or Iran

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<v Speaker 3>wants to be seen right now as shaking the other

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<v Speaker 3>side's hand.

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<v Speaker 1>And I found this isn't just the US's war. Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has brought his allies, which includes Australia, with him. So

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<v Speaker 1>how surprised do you that those relationships seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>holding up despite the increased chaos and the changing objectives

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<v Speaker 1>of this war.

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<v Speaker 3>I am truly as like a diplomatic correspondent in DC

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 3>now for almost fifteen years. I'm truly shocked by the

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 3>degree to which foreign partners are willing to embarrass themselves

0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:28.680
<v Speaker 3>for Donald Trump's foreign policy. And I continue to be shocked.

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, the cost that this war has had on

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:36.320
<v Speaker 3>the global economy, on growth rates is just tremendous. And

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 3>certainly when I hear from officials is that's still resistant

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.679
<v Speaker 3>to the idea of openly challenging Trump. All of that said,

0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 3>I also hear that governments, including Australia are kind of

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.600
<v Speaker 3>quietly hedging their debts and building these relationships that are

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 3>outside their US dependents, right, so not just relying on

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 3>the US as their partner. And I think you'll see

0:13:56.520 --> 0:14:00.360
<v Speaker 3>more of that if Trump, as expected, do very in

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.079
<v Speaker 3>the US midterms. I think you'll see more of allies

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 3>kind of openly challenging him the way that that's Spain

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 3>and some countries have so far. And certainly you've seen,

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:11.800
<v Speaker 3>you know, you've seen some European leaders speak up a

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 3>little bit about international law, that it's been a position

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 3>of fealty largely, and does.

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<v Speaker 1>The level of unpredictability here mean we're in the most

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of unstable era of this conflict.

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 3>At the moment, what's scary is that President Trump has

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 3>genuinely considered a huge range of escallations. And also the

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.720
<v Speaker 3>Iranians have a lot of options for estallation that we

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 3>haven't seen them activate so far. So of course Trump

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 3>could go for ground invasion, he could go for even

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 3>broader and bigger bombing campaigns, and the Iranians could pursue

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 3>targets not just in the Middle East but beyond that.

0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 3>So yes, I think with the breakdown and with the

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 3>real distrust, particularly on the Iranian side, and the kind

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 3>of lack of direction on the US side, the US

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 3>side just doesn't see to have a clear understanding of

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 3>where they want to go. For a while, the idea

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 3>was like in Venezuela, we want to pick a partner

0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.680
<v Speaker 3>in Iran and work with them. But who would that

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.280
<v Speaker 3>be at this point when the US has been sort

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.120
<v Speaker 3>of perceived as a traitor on the Iranian side, And

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 3>I think then the fundamental questions of kind of broader

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 3>US policy in the region are still open, right, So

0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.200
<v Speaker 3>you still don't see an answer to the US policy

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 3>in Gaza and answered to the US policy in Lebanon,

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.360
<v Speaker 3>you see in Yenen where the Iran Bakthuti militia has

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:33.120
<v Speaker 3>opened up another front potentially by saying we're going to

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 3>block the other key energy route out of the Middle East.

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.320
<v Speaker 3>So it's not just about the US in Iran. This

0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 3>is now actually a regional war and the US administration

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.200
<v Speaker 3>really needs to sort of take the reins of it.

0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 3>I spoke with one really well well connected official last

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 3>week and I said, sort of, who is going to

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 3>Who's going to deal with this? And they said, well,

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.840
<v Speaker 3>some grown up has to come out and take charge

0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 3>of it. And the question is who, And I think

0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 3>we're sort of reading for that answer.

0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.480
<v Speaker 1>Akbar, Thank you so much for speaking with me.

0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 3>Thanks slut Ruby.

0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, analysts are warning oil prices

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.200
<v Speaker 1>could climb back above one hundred US dollars a barrel

0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 1>and hit Australians at the fuel pump as new fronts

0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.440
<v Speaker 1>open in the Middle East. In response to Yemen's Hoothy

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 1>rebels threat to block Saudi oil shipments, Saudi Arabia says

0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.880
<v Speaker 1>it will keep the waterway open and respond to any attacks.

0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Oil prices have already climbed to a one month high,

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 1>with Brent krude settling at just under ninety US dollars

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:48.280
<v Speaker 1>a barrel, and Muslim and multicultural groups have welcomed parts

0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.200
<v Speaker 1>of the Albanzi government's long awaited response to a national

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 1>report on Islamophobia, but say it doesn't go far enough.

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.800
<v Speaker 1>The government has accepted thirty five of the report's fifty

0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:02.680
<v Speaker 1>four recommendations, including an Edgecation task force, new requirements for universities,

0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.240
<v Speaker 1>and expanded AFP community layers and teams, but it hasn't

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:09.360
<v Speaker 1>agreed to an independent review of counter terrorism laws or

0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:13.960
<v Speaker 1>inquiries into Islamophobia and anti Palestinian and anti Arab racism.

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.359
<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.